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- [00:01]
Bluff
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- [00:24]
Tim Miller
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- [00:30]
Lady Luck
This year's girls trip to Telluride was the best. We one upped ourselves with my Sapphire Preferred card and with 5 times points on Chase Travel, plus 3 times points on vacation homes with top brands, we got this incredible cabin. It was a mansion and with three times the points on dining, we ordered a Wagyu steak dinner and that pistachio gelato was too good. So where should we go next year?
- [00:51]
Tim Miller
I've got ideas.
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Lady Luck
Chase Sapphire preferred the card that's preferred for a reason. Cards issued by JPMorgan Chase bank and a member FDIC subject to credit approval terms apply.
- [01:00]
Tim Miller
Hey guys, Tim Miller from the Bulwark. Subscribe to the feed if you haven't. Okay, I'm getting beat by some MAGA losers. All right. So if you're here, please just click the little. Subscribe. We appreciate it. I was on with Nicole Wallace on deadline. White House covered a bunch of different topics. At the end, we went deep in the Texas Senate polls. I'm back. I'm back, baby. I'm back in poll analysis. Viewers of the YouTube page will know that I had to take a break from polls in 2025 was too far away from the elections. But I've said it Today, June 30, poll analysis is back. Texas is in play. In play. It's work. Work needs to be done. Okay. Asbedo, the distance from 47 to 50 in Texas, okay, that last mile is the hardest. All right. But you just really look at the numbers. There's a path for Telarico and I get into that with Nicole and Cornell Belcher. We also go into some reporting about. You'll be shocked to hear that Donald Trump has not followed the guidelines and the rules and procedures when it comes to contracting his ballroom. No bid. Contracting happening. Costs are going up. He's breaking his promises to the American people. Donald Trump breaking his promises to the American people. Can you believe that? So we discussed that. We also discussed the Supreme Court cases as well. And so a bunch to get into. Really Appreciate Nicole for having me on. As always. Subscribe to the feed. We'll be seeing you guys soon.
- [02:35]
Nicole Wallace
I feel like we need to do a whole hour just on the writings of the three liberal justices. And we sometimes say they're writing for history. No, they're writing to stop traffic and get everyone to wake the bleep up. And look at what's happening in this country. The alignment between the radical, radical things that Trump is doing and the number of things that the Supreme Court sort of says, okay, it is sort of like watching those permissive parents let the kid that everyone knows is out of control do the things that they shouldn't be doing. And to read those dissents, not in Birthright, it's just a concurrence from Jackson. They were with the majority, luckily in this case. But this term seems to signal real warnings for the country from the three liberal justices.
- [03:28]
Tim Miller
Yeah, absolutely. It's. That's kind of the red flashing Drudge siren or pay attention to me over here. This is like, there are lots to be concerned about. If you look at Birthright, as you mentioned, it's a concurrence, but, you know, you can kind of sense an exasperation and sense an urgency of like, well, I'm not writing this 9, 0. You know, I have to write this because this should have been a 9, 0 case. You know, neither you or I are constitutional scholars, Nicole, but we both have eyes and can and can comprehend just the plain text of the Constitution. And you know, we've had constitutional amendments in the past. If the MAGA movement thinks it's that important, the birth, that people who are born in this country are not granted citizenship, like we've done the entire history of our country, they could go through that process, but they didn't. They tried to do it via executive fiat from the king. And, and it should have been an open and shut case. And instead you end up with a 6, 3 case. It's really kind of more like a 5, 3, 1 case because Kavanaugh writes that he reads this as Congress could pass this law, you wouldn't need a constitutional amendment. You could do it via Congress. And that's kind of what Trump grabbed onto and started pushing afterwards. And so, and I think that is alarming. It's alarming when Trump's in there two and a half more years, you don't know if he gets to replace another justice and that starts to get closer to a majority. And so, I mean, I think that is kind of, you know, part of the reason that you're seeing kind of the urgency in the, either the concurrence in the case of Birthright or the defense and some of these other cases like slaughter from the liberal justices.
- [05:02]
Nicole Wallace
I mean, none of the politics of the moment are going Trump's way. His own coalition's deeply fractured on whatever we're calling Iran. I mean, it seems like it's still a war zone, an active war. Some people describe it as a shaky cease fire, but I think a shaky cease fire and in hot war are essentially synonyms. The economy is on everyone's mind, particularly as we sort of head into summer holiday season. Filling up is sort of gobsmacking and his indifference to all of it, you know, that the, the economy, the housing is a yawn. I love the inflation. I mean, what is your sense of, of this political moment? Because I think these justices have made abundantly clear that they say one thing and do another when it comes to the politics. They're some of the most thin skinned actors in our politics when they go out and talk about, oh, don't view me as political, and then they write in their opinions like they're policy actors.
- [06:01]
Tim Miller
Yeah, look, Trump has never been subtle, I guess, to say the least. But I think particularly lately, it's just very obvious, like what it is that he cares about, what he's focused on and his reaction to these rulings, like, as you're saying, and his behavior on other issues. Like you mentioned the housing bill, that's pretty astonishing. I mean, the Congress has done basically nothing this year. Like they barely work and, and they have one bipartisan bill, Right. That they've done all year, which is on housing. All the voters are saying housing matters, costs are what matter to them. Both parties are being responsive to the voters. Very strange and rare. And they get a bill passed and Trump says, no, I don't know what I'm going to do about it. I might sit on it. I might pocket veto it. We might, I might sign it. I might veto it. What I care about is trying to steal the midterm elections. So we need to get the save fast. What I care about is now that this birthright citizenship executive order has been overruled, now I want Congress to take this up. I want to try to get a law passed to ban people from being citizens if they're born in this country, if their parents were not, are not citizens. So like, and obviously he cares about, you know, the east wing and the Arch and all of that. Like, Trump is being very blunt about all that. And so for that to be happening, the political winds are going away from him. But then to your point about the justices simultaneously to having this ruling after ruling where they have challenged him on some of his illegal executive orders, we should not acknowledge that. But when it comes to the executive power rulings, time and again they keep giving him more power. And they did this ability to, yeah, so they did this ability to fire people, you know, obviously the ability to act with impunity criminally. And you know, there's a report coming out that I guess it's $2 million for a pardon now. That seems to be the running number. You can just sell pardons. And so like what we have is just a kind of Trump who is totally detached from his political interests but like really locked in on kind of grabbing as much power and money for him and his cronies as possible, you know, while the getting's good.
- [08:06]
Nicole Wallace
And his sons, don't forget about that in Kazakhstan. So Tim is much, much, much bigger than the cost of snacks for movie night. It is much, much more closer to illegal in the no bid element of it. And it is no bid because these are taxpayer dollars. It's also totally contradictory to everything Donald Trump said that he would do to fund the ballroom. Let me show you Donald Trump specifically on paying for the ballroom.
- [08:38]
Bluff
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- [08:59]
Tim Miller
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- [09:10]
Donald Trump
There's a magnificent walkway that goes into what will be the most beautiful ballroom anywhere in the world. So we did this. No charge to the taxpayer whatsoever. We're going to have to find this ballroom, I believe, anywhere in the world. We didn't ask for any tax money. We have no taxes. It's taxpayer free. We have no taxpayer putting up 10 cents. There will never be another thing like this. I don't believe built from a court standpoint, this is all my money and donors money. This is tax free.
- [09:42]
Nicole Wallace
I mean their own budget requests blow that. I mean not that, not that it's new that he lies, but these are new lies. And when it comes to the ballroom, it's essentially all sort of AI images and Bill Barr's favorite word, bs.
- [10:01]
Tim Miller
Yeah, well, there are new lies that kind of stack up to, I guess One of the one or two biggest lies of Trump for his over 10 years was that he was going to put the focus on the forgotten man and drain the swamp in D.C. right. I mean, that was his core promise in 2017. I had John Dickerson, the former CBS Evening News host, who, yes, I
- [10:25]
Bluff
on
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Tim Miller
the podcast yesterday, he's so great and telling that he gets, yeah, he's getting pushed out for what we're seeing over there now. But he recalled this quote, I don't go re listen to Trump's 2017 inaugural that often. I don't know if you do, Nicole. And so he pulled this quote from it that I hadn't heard.
- [10:42]
Nicole Wallace
Once was enough.
- [10:44]
Tim Miller
Yeah, once was enough. And Trump said this right here. He said a small group in our nation's capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost. And like that was his pitch when he came in the first time. Right. That he was going to stop doing this. And now he's supercharged it. Right. I mean, it is all of his friends, as you mentioned before the break, it's his kids that are reaping the benefits of this government. It's him personally, because he wants his fancy ballroom. And you know, they're not going through the normal process. They're not doing it, you know, in a way that is on the up and up. They're lying about it. They're, they're lying about how much it's going to cost us, the people, because it's us that are paying for it through our taxes. And, you know, this is true on everything. I guess my only other observation when you come to the streamlining and speed is one of the arguments they make against, like liberal governance, which I share a little bit, is sometimes there are too many meetings, too much red tape, it takes too long, it costs too much. That's happening here. Everything is. The cost overruns is happening on everything. So they say they're speeding it up. But every time we learn about the bill, it's more than the last one that they said,
- [11:48]
Nicole Wallace
well, I guess a lot of it we are learning about from exquisite, careful reporting like yours, Sarah. But a lot of it we can see with our own eyes. And what we can see with our own eyes is he could not install a plastic lining in the reflecting pool. Why does anyone think he can build a structure, let alone a ballroom, let alone a ballroom with stairs going to nowhere, on their own renderings and covered with gold? I guess it's a rhetorical question. But if you want to try to answer it, you'd be my guest.
- [12:21]
Tim Miller
Either of us. Dealer's choice.
- [12:23]
Nicole Wallace
Either of you, you want to go for it, Tim, like, what have they done to inspire confidence? There's like a fake vandalism narrative to explain the botched installation of a plastic liner in the reflecting pool.
- [12:38]
Tim Miller
Yeah. I mean, this is part of his fake image, I would just say, like, he failed as a real estate guy and got bailed out through bankruptcy, and then he ended up having. His innovation was what he's continued to play into the presidency, which was his celebrity. He was good at being famous. Right. And so he put his name on a bunch of stuff that other people built.
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Donald Trump
Right.
- [12:57]
Tim Miller
And like that. And so it gave the impression that he was going to be good at this, that he was going to be a builder, that he's going to be efficient at this. And I don't, you know, and if you read Haverman and Swan's book, like, it does seem like he does really know about the different kinds of marble and the different kinds of light that come off a chandelier, but it doesn't seem like he knows how to, how to build something cheap, under budget, fast and within the rules. I think that is kind of an obvious statement.
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Nicole Wallace
The only thing I would push back, I read that section, is that it only seems like he knows a lot about Marvel, because I don't know a lot about Marvel. So, like, he could be right about Marvel. I don't know. He could be. He actually be wrong about Marvel. I'm just like, Marvel's not my thing. So, Tim, this is what the New York Times poll finds about this question of the economy. Jobs, the stock market, inflation and the cost of living are by far the most pressing issue for Texas voters. 28% said economic issues would decide their vote, triple any other issue. And a full 60% of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of cost of living issues. It's, it's sort of, again, I wasn't not a pollster, I'm not an expert. But from working on campaigns, those are just numbers that are becoming structural and they, they actually kind of explain why for Trump, policy meetings are a, quote, yawn. He needs his election rigging bill to pass because on the policies he's given up, Correct?
- [14:22]
Tim Miller
Yes. And, and I think that there's maybe positive ways to look at that, that that's, I think, going to be good for the Democrats in elections. There's a negative ways to look at it, which is what's happening in its head if he doesn't care about elections anymore. But you know, on the Texas election, just kind of to add to what you and Cornell said, I just, as part of my personal journey, I know the people I can update. After the trauma of 2024, Cornell had to get back to work doing pollstering. I didn't, I quit looking at polls for a while because I just couldn't do it, you know, it was too much ptsd. But I'm back, baby. I'm back. This poll came out this morning. I was digging into the cross tabs. I'm ready to get back out in the field. And I was looking at it and look, I mean, it's interesting. The recall vote for the election in this poll was, was Trump plus 10. So, you know, that's a 1 in 10. Texas voters have moved, have moved, you know, from voting, saying that they're no for Trump to saying that they'd vote for Tellarico, you know, give or take. And so that's, that's a meaningful difference. It's the Hispanic voters almost, you know, the majority of them, as Cornell pointed out, it's also some like older whites, which I think we can probably shorthand as like old George W. Bush types. And in Texas. And so those are the kind of the two groups that are, that have, that have flipped. Where Telorico is still getting just crushed, where Democrats have gotten crushed for a while now is with working class white voters. And Telo is winning basically every other demographic except for working class white voters. He's losing by 40. And so that's the question is like, how can the Democrats now over the next four months try to narrow that gap by talking about affordability, by demonstrating they care about affordability, by contrasting from Trump, who doesn't care about affordability, who only cares about the Gold Ballroom, and said that it was a yawn when people were concerned about housing, you know, so, so some of those voters obviously aren't gettable. But I just think that is where the fight is, you know, is, can you reach a breaking point with some percentage of working class whites in order to win in some of these red states? Because that's kind of the last holdout.
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Lady Luck
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- [16:48]
Tim Miller
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