5: Tim, Sarah and JVL React to Iran Firing Missiles at U.S. Bases - Bulwark Takes

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[00:00]
Ben
Ben hadn't had a decent night's sleep in a month. So during one of his restless nights, he booked a package trip abroad on Expedia. When he arrived at his beachside hotel, he discovered a miraculous bed slung between two trees and fell into the best sleep of his life. You were made to be rechargeable. We were made to package flights and hotels and hammocks for less. Expedia Made to travel.
[00:33]
Tim Miller
Hey, we're live.
[00:34]
JVL
Hey, we're live. Hello everyone. I am JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. A quick live show because we have. Okay, bear with me. We have really good news because Iran has fired a bunch of missiles at an American military base. Now let me explain why that's really good news. Iran back channeled to Qatar and said hey, we're going to fire some missiles. So you know, just make sure everybody's undercover because we don't want anybody getting hurt. The Qataris passed that along to America. Presumably none of our troops at the base in Qatar will be, will be injured by this. Most of the missiles appear to be shot down. Allegedly Iran used only the same number of missiles that were used by the US in their strike operation Midnight Hammer. And the world thinks this is such good de escalatory news that oil prices dropped 4% on word that Iran had attacked American military bases. So you know, that's just how geopolitics works these days. It's all extended kayfabe and I mean I don't know how you guys. Personally I'm relieved. I think this is great news for America, good news for the world. Pretty happy about it. But you are looking at me like I'm an insane person, both of you.
[02:12]
Tim Miller
No, I'm not. I don't mean to look at you like, I mean that might be my natural face with you.
[02:16]
Sarah Longwell
I'm not sure why actually resting insane face.
[02:20]
Tim Miller
Resting insane face. No, I mostly think that's right. Although you know, I don't know, there's some Bahrain like they might go to some, they might do kayfabe and some other places. And so I don't want to count our chickens in the sense that somebody could still get hurt dropping bombs as messy business but it does look like they are giving people a heads up people, they are shooting the missiles down and nobody's getting hurt. And so it's an interesting, it's interesting from a face saving move if everyone knows it's a face saving move, how much face are you really saving is a Question I would have for Iran, but if this is where the escalation ends, that would be great. That would be great. I am interested, jbl, in your triad today about the lie, but can I.
[03:11]
Sarah Longwell
Just chime in on the face saving thing really quick, JBL's take about this? Because I have the same thing I was wondering, which is wouldn't it have been more face saving for the Ayatollah to have been like, you guys don't even know it's coming. All right, we're planning some stuff back here and boy, it's really going to be, you know, these Americans, these awful Americans and Zionists, they're really going to get it in a couple months once we get our shit, you know what I mean? Like, wouldn't that have been more face saving than just doing, once again, a limp missile attack? Like this is the exact. I guess you didn't mention this. This is literally the playbook of the Soleimani attack where the US took out General Soleimani and then Iran shot some, gave warning to Iraq in that case, gave warning that they were going to be shooting missiles at the American base. It didn't harm anybody really. And there were some like traumatic injury.
[04:06]
Tim Miller
Was like some people got some headaches.
[04:07]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's right. And that was totally, you know, trumpy and horrible that he did that. So. And that might happen here. I noticed one of the things that nine of the ten missiles were intercepted. So we don't really know everything. We're doing this live. We should caveat that. But it's similar to that. In which case. Yeah, I guess I just don't, I don't get it. I really, I don't, I don't get the point of it, frankly. I don't know. Jv.
[04:30]
JVL
Okay, I mean, I think I can explain this. One is assumes that the point of this is to mark to lay down a de escalatory marker. Right. And that is Iran believes it is their strategic interest to de escalate at this point. This is one way to do that. And another way. Another thing to consider is that this is largely for internal domestic consumption. So they have to show we still control the military. We still have the ability to unleash a bunch of missiles if we want to. We're in charge here. Nobody go getting any ideas.
[05:06]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, okay.
[05:07]
Tim Miller
Sort of though. But like when all your missiles get shot down, you do no damage. Like, do people buy that doesn't feel, it doesn't feel very strong.
[05:16]
JVL
Well, especially when you've said, I mean, when the point is that you're doing it for face saving and you're like, not, you're really not trying to hurt anybody. Now, it could be that they don't have the capability for anybody. One of the things we've seen with the way Hezbollah fall apart. Right. But this is, you know, one of the ways you, you keep some strategic ambiguity about that is by saying, oh, yeah, hey, we're just, you know, we're doing this, we're doing this to, you know, so you guys know that we see you, we got eyes on you. Also internally, their strategic profile.
[05:50]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, we also, we also figure out focus on ourselves and the incompetent clown we have running our country. So important to remember there's an incompetent clown running the other, the counterparty here and that he also, he's older than Joe Biden and has a huge propaganda ministry that is stronger than Fox on his behalf. Right. So it's a, so that environment is important to understand. I mean, I have here, John Hudson is a good reporter on this stuff, says that Iran's supreme National Security Council says they destroyed the American air base. So, you know, that's going to be the word inside the country. And some people might believe that other people will suspend disbelief and pretend to believe it so as not to get run afoul of the government. And that is, you know, the nature of an authoritarian.
[06:37]
JVL
Well, I got some breaking news for you guys. It could be that this attack was actually an elaborate head fake for their real retaliation, which is that the Bulwark.com webpage is down. So they seem to have launched some. I mean, I can only assume that the cyber attack of Iranian cyber attack and that the missile barrage was meant to distract people from what their cyber teams were doing with the neocon warmongers at the Bulwark.
[07:04]
Sarah Longwell
We'll watch that.
[07:06]
Tim Miller
Can we wrestle with something that I want to talk to you guys about?
[07:09]
JVL
That's what we do here.
[07:10]
Tim Miller
I know, I know. So I read Bill Crystal, our guy, Bill Crystals, take this morning and morning shots. And I've got like a bit of a bone to pick with it. And it's. But it's interesting. I spent all weekend reading about Iran, really trying to understand it, trying to figure out how I felt about it. And I would say where I landed, I'll just lay it out for myself is if we have done real damage to the nuclear sites in Iran and we have run what appears to be a pretty professional mission, it's not clear we obliterated these sites. But even if we did a lot of damage to them. If we did significant deterrence to them in the future trying to build nuclear capabilities, that, to me, net net seems good. Like, I'm not so, like, my TDS is strong, but not so strong that I don't, can't see a good thing when it happens. And so Bill was laying out sort of some of this case for why it's good in there, though he did something that I can't, I don't think is right. But maybe, maybe this is my tds, which he sort of suggested that it's because Trump had a glimmer or a short term burst of an expression of American interests and that that drove him to make this particular, particular move. And I would say this is a little bit more like blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. Where really what this is, is Trump being led by Israel. Right. Him doing what Bibi wants him to do. However, because Iran is, is a bad, is a bad regime, like, and has been trying to get nukes, it is true we don't want them to get nukes. And so, like, it's good that we took them out. But the idea that Trump did it out of some American interest versus Trump being like, I want to be a guy who drops bombs on people and actually, let me just tell you, people who thought I was going to be a peacenik for you, I was lying because I like strong Trump. And so like Bill, Bill was giving him, like, I thought some deference that was not due to him. Anyway, that's about how I see it. But I'm interested in what you guys say.
[09:35]
Sarah Longwell
I think you missed a key fact. I think Trump is an old man that watches a lot of cable. His cable network of choice, Fox, is still pretty representative of the vestigial, militaristic elements of the Republican Party and that he was watching his favorite Fox commentators on his favorite stories talk about how great of a job Israel is doing and how awesome Bibi and Mossad are. And he was like, I want to get in on that action. I want that.
[10:06]
JVL
Why aren't they talking about me?
[10:08]
Sarah Longwell
They talk about how good I'm doing. I think it's like basically maybe 1cm deeper than that. I think that's about what was happening. That's my assessment.
[10:20]
JVL
Yeah, I mean, in fairness to Trump, I don't think it. At the end of the day, it ultimately doesn't matter why he did it. Like, if his motives were impure, so be it. If it's a good result, it isn't Clear to me that the results is going to be all that good, is the thing. I mean, first of all, we do have the fact that the President of the United States and the Secretary of Defense lied to the American people this weekend by claiming that the final blow had been dealt to the Iranian nuclear program and that it had been totally and completely obliterated. We now know that it happened kind.
[10:59]
Sarah Longwell
Of similar to the Iranian misinformation, honestly.
[11:02]
JVL
Kind of. Yeah, in a weird way. Yeah.
[11:05]
Tim Miller
But we sat there and we were like, how does he know it was obliterated? It just happened. Happened. Like, where is the. Where are the reports that. So it looks like, as the reports come in, probably not obliterated, but damaged.
[11:15]
JVL
So.
[11:15]
Tim Miller
So it's unclear how damaged it was.
[11:17]
JVL
Unclear how. Seriously. It is absolutely clear that our intelligence agencies have absolutely no idea where the 400 kilograms of, like, mostly that's disturbing, that, that we. That our intelligence apparatus doesn't have any idea where the most important thing is. They didn't touch the. So they, they seem to have probably damaged or blown up a lot of centrifuges, but they didn't touch the. The facility which builds the centrifuges so they can just build more. I mean, if you were looking to understand, how big of a blow does this represent? It looks like. And the worst case, a few months in the best case, like maybe a year or two, it didn't set them back 35 years. Did not seem to set them back 35 years. Again, things are still coming clear. We don't know yet, but from what it looks like, it looks like that's the range we're looking at. And that's, again, I will take that so long as the costs were reasonably low. And if this is where it all ends, right, if it ends with these missile strikes, then the costs were pretty low. Right. But I don't know, like, people working to people. That's a problem, isn't it?
[12:36]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Oh, yeah. My biggest take on this is very bulwarky, which is that the people making the maximalist case were totally wrong on both so far. On both sides. Right. Like, the people that were doing the chest beating, we eliminated, you know, all the nuclear materials. So it's an easy, clear win for Mr. Trump. All the doves are people making that. That argument have already been proven wrong. You know, based on what you just said and what the reporting is about the status of their nuclear program. The people that are like, well, this is, you know, I was watching just in the last hour as the Iranian missiles were coming through, you know, the Tucker Carlson wing of the party. You know, on social media, the Candace Owens I saw literally Candace Owens, not the Candace Owens wing. Candace Owens, like World War 3. It's happening quicker than I thought. It's all disintegrating. Like, not. That's not really the case so far. I think that there remain risks, which is me and, me and Bill hash this out. Folks can Watch this on YouTube. It'll be posted in a little bit where I just still fall on the side of it was too risky. And there are asymmetric risks now that we have that we didn't have last week necessarily. Like people who. Lone wolves that are radicalized Iranian proxies that decide to act either with Iranians encouragement or otherwise in Iraq and other places going after our folks. Like all those, all those are short term, acute risks we really didn't have besides kind of the baseline level of constant terrorist last week. And for me it's like, well, I didn't feel like this was worth it. And then in addition to my concerns about Trump's leadership. But yeah, I think it's pretty, it's pretty kind of amusing that we've gotten to a place in our political discourse where everyone immediately retreats to the maximalist view of, of things. And just so far in this case, it hasn't really borne out.
[14:27]
Tim Miller
Yeah. And I would say going back to something that I said on Saturday that I have, I, as things unfold, I believe it more and more, which is, it is a strange feeling to distrust the American government in these scenarios. Like, I haven't been in a situation before where I would just say, oh, the American intelligence, or what the President, United States is telling us now. I mean, obviously it's not the first time we've been here. Like, I mean, you could take weapons of mass destruction, whatever. But at least there I didn't think that the intent was to lie. Like, I, like they had bad intelligence. Ultimately, I, you know, whatever. I don't want to relitigate, maybe. But so, so maybe it's the president himself this time is like. And all the people he's appointed, like, I trust nobody. I don't think they're lit and they don't listen to their briefings. It's like what Pete Hegseth goes out there and briefs us. I have, I have no faith that anything we're being told is correct. And that's, that's a new feeling of just being like, yeah, I don't trust.
[15:30]
JVL
I'm confident that he does give glory To God.
[15:34]
Tim Miller
Yeah, sure.
[15:34]
JVL
I really think that that is.
[15:37]
Sarah Longwell
We love you.
[15:40]
JVL
We love you guys. Okay, so I guess we can put a pin in this and say, so far, pretty okay scenario. Not the worst case. If it turns out that the Iranian nuclear program is set back even like six to nine months, that'll be pretty good, right? Worth the trade, worth doing.
[16:02]
Sarah Longwell
I mean, no, sorry. Not worth the trade for me for six to nine months. I have to object to that. Three years. Worth it. If we pushed it back enough so that Trump is gone by the time they're enriching, That's. Then that's a fine deal for me. Six to nine months. Iran doing it, and then feeling like they need to butch up. That's not. That's not a win for me. Just wanted to say.
[16:25]
JVL
Yeah, fair. I mean, I. I would say if you want to take a bigger step back. The problem with kicking the can down the road as a strategic paradigm is that it does reinforce to Iran that they have to get a nuke. Right. I mean, this is not dissuading them and being like, hey, you know, there are ways to get what you want without becoming a nuclear power. This sort of thing does reinforce. Actually, the only protection anybody has in this world is nukes. And so, like, look how we're treated versus North Korea.
[16:59]
Sarah Longwell
Like, look how we're treated versus North Korea kind of mindset. Yeah.
[17:03]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
[17:03]
JVL
All right. You guys had. Want to talk about Lisa Murkowski, one of the great statesmen of our time. And I have no idea. I'm coming to this cold.
[17:12]
Tim Miller
Yeah. So you didn't know, but this is. This is a segment for you, though, because you have long kind of been like, why doesn't Lisa Murkowski switch sides? Why doesn't she caucus with the Democrats? And I've always been like, probably not gonna happen. And it's. You know, and it's a lot of the. The other side is worse. She doesn't feel like a Democrat, but she's got a book coming out, and in it, she talks about the fact that not only have has she been approached a number of times to switch sides, but that she has also considered it. Now, I haven't read the book or seen the real excerpts, but the fact that she's considering it, I have. I have, like, more and more. I actually now believe that someone like Lisa Murkowski, the dump, should lobby extremely hard to get her on side. Like, she is being forced into positions all the time that she doesn't want to be, and she doesn't want to have to vote with Republicans on confirming Cash Patel like she, she, she is more often a reliable vote against them. Which means the incoming for Lisa Murkowski if you vote against Trump is like, she must be taking talk about getting radicalized. I don't know how many MAGA voters she probably hears from who say the kinds of things that probably make her be like, you know what? I'm not sure this is my team anymore. And the more that Trump does implement his policy vision, tariffs and other things, my guess is, is that she's feeling increasingly alienated from what the Republican side is in a way that is more acute than it might have been two years ago during Joe Biden's term. And so I would just make an earnest pitch to Democrats to make if she has, if she is like remotely open to it. That is a, that is valuable. Go get Lisa Murkowski.
[19:01]
Sarah Longwell
Jbl, before you talk, I want to tell you, I want to give you an exact quote from her about why she ultimately has not decided to make the change that I'm interested in Your take. She says ultimately she more closely aligns with the GOP on policy than the Dems more closely aligns with is her assessment.
[19:20]
JVL
Did she do like a pro and con list?
[19:22]
Sarah Longwell
Like, seems it kind of felt like.
[19:24]
JVL
Free trade and favor of good classical architecture in federal buildings. I look, I mean, I think it would be the right thing to do to simply not be part of the Republican Party. On the other hand, from her perspective, to switch and lose your committee assignments and not be able to deliver for your state, which then really does risk your, you know, risk that seat going to Cletus von Ivermectin. That's, that's risky, right? I would say you probably don't want to switch unless switching puts you in the majority.
[20:03]
Tim Miller
Well, hold on a second. Here's, here's what, here's what I think has changed about it. I should have said this out of the gate. She just got elected. Right. And she is also hitting an age. We're running for another term after this starts to get pretty wobbly. And if you were going to make a switch now would be like, I agree. She. Because voters the reason that Lisa Murkowski wins. I've done a lot of focus groups in Alaska about this. They know they vote for her in part because she's got juice. They know she's got juice. In fact, they're much more attuned to that than any other state knows about their senator.
[20:39]
JVL
And what kind so much welfare than the rest of Us, so.
[20:42]
Tim Miller
That's right. But I think that for her personally right now, the statement of leaving, I actually think one of the things that would hurt her the most, I bet when she says more policy aligned. I find that actually difficult to believe now with what the Republican Party. It's more that she is in a position to get things for her state that nobody else is. And I don't know if I, if, if, if, if I were her and I didn't have to face another election or very likely didn't. It's just the right thing to do. Like, she must hate it dealing with these guys.
[21:20]
Sarah Longwell
And this goes to the fantasy scenario. Can everybody. Everybody's down right now. You know, things are. But can I give everybody just a fantasy scenario is what she should actually do. But, like, if it was not for. And I know this is fantasy politics. It's the West Wing. Sarah's gonna roll her eyes. But, like, practically speaking, Bill Cassidy, Mitch McConnell are dead politically. Not literally. They're dead. Like, they're both. Mitch Collins already said he's resigning. Bill Cassidy is politically dead here in Louisiana. Susan Collins, I think, is politically alive, but it's kind of a very, very challenging reelect this time. She did the last time, but this time she's in the midterm cycle, which is going to make it very tough for her, I think, to win.
[21:59]
JVL
Why doesn't she just switch?
[22:01]
Tim Miller
You know what? Instead of switching, they should become independent. They should become independent.
[22:06]
Sarah Longwell
You're taking my point. The four of them together. So if the question is power for Alaska, like, it' like it's power and you want to actually wield legislative power. The four of them could go to Chuck Schumer and say, hey, we're going to bail. You got to make Lisa the Senate Majority leader. That's part of the deal. We need all 45. 47, essentially. Dems, 45, plus Bernie and what's his name, Angus. Every time I bring that up, anybody in Washington, like, says that I'm crazy, but I don't really understand why all four of them could get what they wanted. They could all get what they wanted that way. And they're all kind of varying degrees of politically dead. So anyway, it's probably not gonna happen, but I would just. If, you know, Lisa Murkowski, I'd put that little bug in her ear because that seems a little less scary than being like, I'm gonna be a Democrat and then I'm a lame duck and now I have no power and I'm in the minority. Why Would I do that? It's like, here's a path to being not only in the majority, but maybe the Senate Majority Leader. And think about how great that would look on your little statue in Anchorage, former Senate Majority Leader Lisa Murkowski. How about that?
[23:14]
JVL
Yeah.
[23:14]
Tim Miller
The only. The problem in that scenario is not Murkowski, and it's not the Democrats. It's Mitch McConnell and, like, probably Cassidy and, like, it's. So that's the fantasy part. Fantasy part's not her.
[23:29]
Sarah Longwell
But he could get back on behalf of his wife, Elaine Chow.
[23:34]
Tim Miller
He should. Well, this is where Mitch McConnell is. Like, of all the people, give me a ranked choice voting that involves a bunch of terrible people and Mitch McConnell.
[23:43]
JVL
Because I want to put him at the ZO.
[23:45]
Sarah Longwell
Just joking. Just joking. Okay.
[23:49]
Tim Miller
He is everything that's been wrong, and he's not redeeming himself with these, like, late in the game, no votes. This. The only thing that would ever redeem Mitch McConnell is this move. Is this plan.
[24:03]
Sarah Longwell
Let's make it happen.
[24:05]
JVL
Yeah, I guess. I guess. But what we will actually wind up getting is probably like, Fetterman switching sides and becoming a Republican. Right? We won't actually get any of the Republicans who should be Democrats. None of them will move. Instead, we'll get a Democrat who should be a Democrat switching over and becoming a Republican.
[24:25]
Sarah Longwell
Because that I would like to jbl.
[24:27]
JVL
Is the timeline we exist in.
[24:29]
Tim Miller
Yeah, you. I want to give you a jbl. I think your. Your agitation for Lisa Murkowski to not be with the Republicans was always a good one. Your Fetterman instincts, man, have they gone south on you?
[24:43]
JVL
I mean, can't let him fence there was a health event. I mean, the guy had a stroke. Right.
[24:52]
Sarah Longwell
Pre stroke. This is.
[24:55]
JVL
You know, I feel like everything should always be with the caveat of unless something terrible happens to their body health. Right. Like, you shouldn't have to add that. You, you know, you shouldn't have to say.
[25:07]
Tim Miller
Do you think the stroke is why he's like this, though?
[25:10]
JVL
Yeah. Yeah.
[25:14]
Tim Miller
Okay. I'm not sure about that.
[25:18]
JVL
I. I don't know. Like, personality shifts post stroke is a thing that happens all the time. I am not a doctor. I was once one sixteenth of the way to being a doctor once.
[25:27]
Tim Miller
1 16th of a doctor.
[25:29]
JVL
But it, I mean, it seems pretty clear to me that something dramatic changed after he had a stroke. And so, like, I don't know. I mean, Occam's Razor, but. Right. That's what we'll get in the same way that we got, like, Christian Sinema switching sides. Right. This is, this is the world we live in. Everything goes the worst way possible very quickly. The Iran strikes so far like the Iran strike. We have the New York City mayoral primary tomorrow. Does anybody want to say anything else before we. Zoran walking once again to Manhattan yesterday.
[26:08]
Sarah Longwell
I'd like to once again formally endorse.
[26:11]
Tim Miller
Who are you formally endorsing? Tim?
[26:13]
Sarah Longwell
People continue to attack me. Folks that are going to remain nameless from our, from our past continue to attack me for platforming. Zo run and ask him a question. Zellner Myri is a great choice. You should rank him number for number one. Brad Lander. A little lib for my taste. Totally fine. Would do a great job. Adrian Adams. Totally fine. Three Somebody to think about. Whitney Tilson. No chance to win. Capitalist though Night strong.
[26:46]
JVL
Number four.
[26:48]
Sarah Longwell
So you've got a lot of options New York. It's not too late. Zoran. I did think his, his campaign is like he's, you gotta give credit where it's due. He's, he's doing a great campaign. He's running a great campaign besides the way he handled that one question But.
[27:04]
JVL
I don't. We were talking in our.
[27:08]
Sarah Longwell
And I think that there's gonna be a shy Cuomo vote. I think there are people not telling pollsters that they are gonna rank Cuomo and I think there's also Cuomo is gonna do the best of the types of people that don't answer their phones. So I, I, that's, I have no evidence of this. It's just a gut theory feeling that Cuomo will do better than these pulse.
[27:24]
JVL
But maybe if Zoran pulls it off we do get a chance to have the, the Republican and Hell's. Hell's Angels. Guardian angels.
[27:34]
Sarah Longwell
No Eric Adams. I think an Eric Adams reelection Zoran wins is much more likely than people.
[27:39]
JVL
Because then we have a four way race.
[27:41]
Tim Miller
Yeah but you split among the three Democrats and you end up with the Republican.
[27:46]
Sarah Longwell
I mean Democrats.
[27:48]
JVL
Yeah right. It's all insane. It's all insane.
[27:54]
Tim Miller
It's all insane. Here's what I would say. I, I'm getting a lot of people being like you hate Zoran.
[28:01]
JVL
And I'm like you were pretty mean.
[28:03]
Sarah Longwell
You were pretty mean about him. I will say I can see why people would say that. It's fine. I'm just saying that's why it's not like people misinterpreted you. You were like I don't like that young man one bit.
[28:15]
Tim Miller
I don't like that. I do not like his Ideas.
[28:18]
JVL
You asked to speak to his manager.
[28:20]
Tim Miller
I do not think that people. This is. Shut up, jbl. Because people. Some people have called me a Karen over this, which is.
[28:29]
JVL
You're a Sarah. You're not a Karen, you're a Sarah.
[28:34]
Tim Miller
Yeah. No, I do not want to speak to his manager. I. I think he is. I said this the first time we talked about him. I think he is running an incredibly good campaign from a, like, young insurgent. I know how to talk to people. I'm charismatic. A lot of those things are the things that we would like Democrats to be. I would like them to be those things without the horrible ideas. Like, without the both the silly, fantastical policy ideas. And here's the thing, and this was before we went on the show that time. I don't even know if I said this to you, or maybe I did say it on the secret podcast, but he didn't just whitewash it. With Tim, the idea of globalize the Intifada, which he has. Somebody had sent me some of his old tweets that had not been widely circulated in which he was celebrating the idea of a third intifada. You know, like, there is. This is a. This is a guy who has a. Now and again, I don't even know if I've ever, like, talked about my positions on Israel at length, but I have no friend to Bibi Netanyahu and this Israeli government. And the longer what happens in Gaza goes on, the. The more sick to my stomach, like, they're not. It doesn't matter how I feel personally, but, like, I am against the way that Israel is handling the way it goes after civilians, like, and I think that they should be doing more to get civilian aid or allow civilian aid. And so it is not that I'm like one of these, like some of our old friends, people who think they. You can never hold Israel to account on anything. Regardless, I am broadly supportive, though, of their right to exist free from the terror that they experienced on October 7th. And if you know what happened in the second intifada, the idea that somebody would say globalize the intifada is a fine thing to say is actually an extremely. It is an extreme statement. An extreme statement. And I have a couple red lines for politicians trying to overturn elections. Is one of them calling, you know, for widespread, like, the overthrow, the violent overthrowing of an allied country. As much as I might be against the, like, current government and some of the policies, I do find, like, it's not, It's. It's not for me it's like a red line for me. And so I don't hate him, but I wouldn't rank him.
[31:08]
JVL
Can I just ask one question of you guys? I mean this sincerely. What is the case for Zoran over Bradlander? Like Brad Lander gives you, if you are a progressive and you're a liberal, Brad Lander gives you a lot of that stuff. But he actually knows how the city works is it just vibes, right? Like Zoran's good hang Bradley inner circle.
[31:34]
Sarah Longwell
For the inner circle of DSA socialist types, they would say, well, it's because he's going to do these socialist policies that then when, when people who criticize him bring it up, they're like, you have Zoran derangement syndrome. He only wants the 5, the 5 test communist grocery stores. He doesn't want all of them to be grocery, you know, all of them to be state run. And like I actually kind of land more Zoran on that during our conversation. He did feel like, more like he was trying to experiment with lefty ideas rather than he wanted the overthrow of the capitalist system. But I think that the inner circle of DSA types like think that he's really with them and he has to do some winking stuff to get people on board. Then there's another category of people who I'm very sympathetic to as well who are genuinely excited about having a young fresh face who shares some of their social views and have been beaten down by whatever you think about them, Hillary, Biden, Schumer, the Democratic elite. There's a lot of young college educated people in New York that want somebody to be very excited about who came of age after Obama. There's not really been anybody since Obama that young Democrats have been excited about. I'm sympathetic to, to that. They're excited about that. And then I think there's another category of people there for the case for them is that Cuomo is so awful and I'm stuck with this guy. And then I think there's another category. People don't quite understand really what his, what his platform is.
[32:54]
Tim Miller
And Cuomo is awful.
[32:56]
Sarah Longwell
To be clear, Cuomo's horrible on personal and policy grounds. Yes, he's awful across the board.
[33:06]
Tim Miller
Your point before, and I think my point too is that there was like for some reason like we didn't make this choice, that it would come down to Zoran and Cuomo. New Yorkers appear to have made that choice. There were plenty of other rich people.
[33:23]
Sarah Longwell
Who circled the wagons around Cuomo who deserved condemnation, by the way. There's some rich business types. Cuomo has a ton of money on tv and like they could have circled the wagons around the millions of other New Yorkers who are capitalist that are Democrats and could have opposed Trump and they chose to circle wagons around Cuomo and that was a big problem too.
[33:44]
Tim Miller
Yeah. So I'm sorry, I'm mad about your choices, New York, but I am indeed. I think that for the greatest city in the world, we should be able to do better than this. And so for people yelling at me that like, why aren't I in love with Zoran? Like, I'm sorry, I'm not. He's a democratic socialist. I am a moderate centrist capitalist. Like capital. Like, yes, not gonna find purchase with me.
[34:09]
JVL
I know you say that New York should be able to do better. Historically speaking, they haven't. I mean, it's been a generation. Do you ever think you'd look back and build a Blasio and be like, man, I wish we could have another build? I don't look back on build a.
[34:20]
Tim Miller
Blasio that way, but I've looked that way on Bloomberg.
[34:22]
Sarah Longwell
That first Bloomberg term was good. That first Bloomberg term looking good. Ed Coke, Koch, Mayor Lindsay, he did a good job back in the 70s. Mayor Lindsay did a good job, I think. So I've been told. I don't know.
[34:38]
JVL
I like that we can laugh and we can only have this part of the discussion because things looking okay because we live in the topsy turvy world so far.
[34:47]
Sarah Longwell
Stop jinxing it.
[34:48]
JVL
Jvl An Iranian airstrike on an American military base is a good thing. Hope that everybody is okay.
[34:59]
Sarah Longwell
Hold on, we got one more thing before you got to go.
[35:01]
JVL
Yeah, go ahead.
[35:02]
Sarah Longwell
Our own personal Iranian supreme leader has put out a statement letting you know, you in particular with the N word in it that you are wrong about the fake news. You are the fake news. Jvl the sites were totally destroyed and everyone knows it. And the Allison Cooper of fake news cnn. And then he lists Johnny Carl, abc. He lists all. He's gonna watch a lot of tv. All of the people on TV that he does.
[35:29]
Tim Miller
He wants to see how his big bombs are playing.
[35:32]
JVL
So why isn't. Why is. Has he not fired Raisin Cain? Because Raisin is the first person who said, you know, I understand Everybody's interested in BDU's, but you know, battle BDA is battle damage assessments. But you know, we can't do that right now and it's gonna take time. Like, why didn't Trump fire him then?
[35:55]
Sarah Longwell
I think we know the answer to that trivia.
[35:56]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
[35:58]
Sarah Longwell
Because he has a cool because he has a cool nickname, and he wants to do propaganda and make Allison Cooper and Johnny. Oh, wait. It just, it just occurred to me that that's Anderson Cooper, that that's a homophobic nickname.
[36:08]
Tim Miller
Oh, it's a homophobic Allison Cooper.
[36:11]
Sarah Longwell
Took me a second.
[36:12]
JVL
You were flipping Allison Camerata.
[36:15]
Sarah Longwell
I had Allison Camerata in my mind. Yeah. So there you go. That's why jbl, because he couldn't make a homophobic joke about the head of his military, so he's going to attack CNN instead, I think is the answer. So there you go.
[36:28]
JVL
Good luck, America.
[36:29]
Sarah Longwell
Good luck. See you guys. What a great show.

Summary6 min read

Bulwark Takes Episode 5: Detailed Summary

Episode Title: Bulwark Takes
Host/Authors: Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, JVL
Release Date: June 23, 2025
Description: Bulwark Takes delivers concise analyses on current events from The Bulwark team, including insights from Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, Bill Kristol, and others.

1. Introduction to the Episode

The episode begins promptly with JVL announcing the live show, swiftly moving into the central topic: Iran's recent missile strikes on U.S. military bases. The hosts aim to dissect the implications of these actions, providing a multifaceted analysis of the geopolitical dynamics at play.

2. Iran's Missile Strikes: A De-escalatory Move?

JVL initiates the discussion by presenting Iran's missile attack on an American military base as surprisingly positive news. He elaborates:

"Iran back channeled to Qatar and said hey, we're going to fire some missiles... Most of the missiles appear to be shot down... oil prices dropped 4% on word that Iran had attacked American military bases." [00:34]

JVL suggests that the attack may serve as a de-escalatory tactic, implying that Iran's actions were measured to avoid significant casualties. He humorously characterizes modern geopolitics as "extended kayfabe," indicating a complex and often performative international stage.

Sarah Longwell expresses confusion and skepticism about the face-saving nature of Iran's actions:

"I don't get the point of it, frankly. I don't know." [04:05]

The conversation delves into whether Iran's missile strikes were genuinely aimed at de-escalation or if they were strategic moves for internal and international messaging.

3. Analysis of Trump's Strike on Iran's Nuclear Program

Tim Miller shifts the focus to former President Trump's strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. He reflects on the effectiveness and motivations behind the operation:

"If we have done real damage to the nuclear sites in Iran... If Trump did it out of some American interest... or Trump being like, I want to be a guy who drops bombs on people... which is not having anything to do with him." [07:05]

Tim critiques Bill Kristol's interpretation, suggesting that Trump's actions were more aligned with personal or Israeli interests rather than a calculated American strategy. He emphasizes the ambiguity surrounding the actual damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Sarah Longwell counters by highlighting Trump's media consumption and alignment with militaristic Republican elements influenced by Fox News:

"Trump is an old man that watches a lot of cable... he was like, I want to get in on that action. I want that." [09:35]

This exchange underscores the complexity of attributing motivations to political leaders and the intertwined nature of domestic media and foreign policy decisions.

4. Effectiveness and Consequences of the Missile Strikes

The hosts debate the tangible outcomes of both Iran's and Trump's missile actions. JVL posits that Iran's strike might have been a strategic message both domestically and internationally, maintaining military prowess without causing actual harm.

Tim Miller questions the extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear program:

"It looks like that... the final blow had been dealt to the Iranian nuclear program... But it's unclear we obliterated these sites." [11:04]

He expresses concern over the reliability of intelligence assessments and the potential for future threats if Iran persists in its nuclear ambitions.

Sarah Longwell emphasizes the polarized reactions and misinformation surrounding the events:

"The people that were doing the chest beating, we eliminated, you know, all the nuclear materials... people making that argument have already been proven wrong." [12:35]

This highlights the ongoing debate over the effectiveness and repercussions of military interventions.

5. Trust in the U.S. Government and Intelligence Agencies

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the erosion of trust in American leadership and intelligence:

Tim Miller shares his growing distrust:

"I didn't think that the intent was to lie... Maybe it's the president himself this time... I have no faith that anything we're being told is correct." [14:26]

This sentiment reflects a broader skepticism towards governmental transparency and reliability, especially in the context of military actions and their justified outcomes.

JVL offers a more optimistic take, asserting confidence in the President's integrity:

"I'm confident that he does give glory To God." [15:05]

However, this viewpoint is counterbalanced by ongoing concerns about misinformation and leadership intentions.

6. Senator Lisa Murkowski: Loyalty and Potential Shifts

The conversation transitions to domestic politics, focusing on Senator Lisa Murkowski's potential political realignment:

Tim Miller urges Democrats to court Murkowski:

"Make an earnest pitch to Democrats to make if she has, if she is like remotely open to it. That is valuable. Go get Lisa Murkowski." [17:03]

Sarah Longwell provides Murkowski's perspective, citing her alignment with GOP policies over Democrats:

"She says ultimately she more closely aligns with the GOP on policy than the Dems more closely aligns with is her assessment." [19:20]

JVL discusses the strategic considerations Murkowski faces:

"The problem with kicking the can down the road... the only protection anybody has in this world is nukes." [16:59]

This segment underscores the strategic importance of Murkowski's political stance and the broader implications for party dynamics.

7. New York City Mayoral Primary Discussion

The hosts shift focus to the upcoming New York City mayoral primary, evaluating candidates and campaign strategies:

Tim Miller expresses disappointment with the choices presented to voters:

"I think that for the greatest city in the world, we should be able to do better than this." [33:22]

Sarah Longwell critiques the focus on Cuomo and advocates for alternative candidates like Zoran:

"There are people not telling pollsters that they are gonna rank Cuomo and I think there's also Cuomo is gonna do the best of the types of people that don't answer their phones." [27:07]

JVL humorously muses about the unpredictability of the primary:

"This is the world we live in. Everything goes the worst way possible very quickly." [27:24]

The discussion highlights frustrations with the political landscape and the challenges in finding viable leadership options.

8. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, the hosts share light-hearted banter and final remarks on the topics discussed:

Sarah Longwell humorously addresses personal attacks and reaffirms her position:

"Our own personal Iranian supreme leader has put out a statement... he's gonna watch a lot of tv that he does." [35:02]

Tim Miller and JVL engage in playful exchanges, maintaining a balance between serious analysis and camaraderie.

The episode concludes with well-wishes and a reflection on navigating the complex geopolitical and domestic political landscapes.

Notable Quotes:

JVL [00:34]: "Most of the missiles appear to be shot down... oil prices dropped 4% on word that Iran had attacked American military bases."
Sarah Longwell [04:05]: "I don't get the point of it, frankly. I don't know."
Tim Miller [14:26]: "I have no faith that anything we're being told is correct. And that's a new feeling of just being like, yeah, I don't trust."
Sarah Longwell [19:20]: "She more closely aligns with the GOP on policy than the Dems more closely aligns with is her assessment."
Tim Miller [33:22]: "I think that for the greatest city in the world, we should be able to do better than this."

Summary

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, and JVL dissect Iran's recent missile strikes on U.S. bases, evaluating whether these actions signify a de-escalatory strategy or serve other strategic purposes. The conversation extends to analyze former President Trump's strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, questioning its effectiveness and underlying motivations. Trust in U.S. government and intelligence agencies is scrutinized, revealing a growing skepticism among the hosts.

Domestically, the potential political realignment of Senator Lisa Murkowski is explored, highlighting the implications for bipartisan dynamics. The discussion then shifts to the New York City mayoral primary, with critiques of the current candidate field and advocacy for alternative leadership. Throughout the episode, notable quotes with timestamps underscore key points, providing listeners with insightful reflections on both international and domestic issues.

The hosts balance serious geopolitical analysis with personal perspectives and humor, offering a comprehensive and engaging overview of the topics at hand. This episode serves as a valuable resource for anyone seeking to understand the complexities of recent political events and their broader implications.

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Transcript122 lines

[00:00]
Ben
Ben hadn't had a decent night's sleep in a month. So during one of his restless nights, he booked a package trip abroad on Expedia. When he arrived at his beachside hotel, he discovered a miraculous bed slung between two trees and fell into the best sleep of his life. You were made to be rechargeable. We were made to package flights and hotels and hammocks for less. Expedia Made to travel.
[00:33]
Tim Miller
Hey, we're live.
[00:34]
JVL
Hey, we're live. Hello everyone. I am JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. A quick live show because we have. Okay, bear with me. We have really good news because Iran has fired a bunch of missiles at an American military base. Now let me explain why that's really good news. Iran back channeled to Qatar and said hey, we're going to fire some missiles. So you know, just make sure everybody's undercover because we don't want anybody getting hurt. The Qataris passed that along to America. Presumably none of our troops at the base in Qatar will be, will be injured by this. Most of the missiles appear to be shot down. Allegedly Iran used only the same number of missiles that were used by the US in their strike operation Midnight Hammer. And the world thinks this is such good de escalatory news that oil prices dropped 4% on word that Iran had attacked American military bases. So you know, that's just how geopolitics works these days. It's all extended kayfabe and I mean I don't know how you guys. Personally I'm relieved. I think this is great news for America, good news for the world. Pretty happy about it. But you are looking at me like I'm an insane person, both of you.
[02:12]
Tim Miller
No, I'm not. I don't mean to look at you like, I mean that might be my natural face with you.
[02:16]
Sarah Longwell
I'm not sure why actually resting insane face.
[02:20]
Tim Miller
Resting insane face. No, I mostly think that's right. Although you know, I don't know, there's some Bahrain like they might go to some, they might do kayfabe and some other places. And so I don't want to count our chickens in the sense that somebody could still get hurt dropping bombs as messy business but it does look like they are giving people a heads up people, they are shooting the missiles down and nobody's getting hurt. And so it's an interesting, it's interesting from a face saving move if everyone knows it's a face saving move, how much face are you really saving is a Question I would have for Iran, but if this is where the escalation ends, that would be great. That would be great. I am interested, jbl, in your triad today about the lie, but can I.
[03:11]
Sarah Longwell
Just chime in on the face saving thing really quick, JBL's take about this? Because I have the same thing I was wondering, which is wouldn't it have been more face saving for the Ayatollah to have been like, you guys don't even know it's coming. All right, we're planning some stuff back here and boy, it's really going to be, you know, these Americans, these awful Americans and Zionists, they're really going to get it in a couple months once we get our shit, you know what I mean? Like, wouldn't that have been more face saving than just doing, once again, a limp missile attack? Like this is the exact. I guess you didn't mention this. This is literally the playbook of the Soleimani attack where the US took out General Soleimani and then Iran shot some, gave warning to Iraq in that case, gave warning that they were going to be shooting missiles at the American base. It didn't harm anybody really. And there were some like traumatic injury.
[04:06]
Tim Miller
Was like some people got some headaches.
[04:07]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's right. And that was totally, you know, trumpy and horrible that he did that. So. And that might happen here. I noticed one of the things that nine of the ten missiles were intercepted. So we don't really know everything. We're doing this live. We should caveat that. But it's similar to that. In which case. Yeah, I guess I just don't, I don't get it. I really, I don't, I don't get the point of it, frankly. I don't know. Jv.
[04:30]
JVL
Okay, I mean, I think I can explain this. One is assumes that the point of this is to mark to lay down a de escalatory marker. Right. And that is Iran believes it is their strategic interest to de escalate at this point. This is one way to do that. And another way. Another thing to consider is that this is largely for internal domestic consumption. So they have to show we still control the military. We still have the ability to unleash a bunch of missiles if we want to. We're in charge here. Nobody go getting any ideas.
[05:06]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, okay.
[05:07]
Tim Miller
Sort of though. But like when all your missiles get shot down, you do no damage. Like, do people buy that doesn't feel, it doesn't feel very strong.
[05:16]
JVL
Well, especially when you've said, I mean, when the point is that you're doing it for face saving and you're like, not, you're really not trying to hurt anybody. Now, it could be that they don't have the capability for anybody. One of the things we've seen with the way Hezbollah fall apart. Right. But this is, you know, one of the ways you, you keep some strategic ambiguity about that is by saying, oh, yeah, hey, we're just, you know, we're doing this, we're doing this to, you know, so you guys know that we see you, we got eyes on you. Also internally, their strategic profile.
[05:50]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, we also, we also figure out focus on ourselves and the incompetent clown we have running our country. So important to remember there's an incompetent clown running the other, the counterparty here and that he also, he's older than Joe Biden and has a huge propaganda ministry that is stronger than Fox on his behalf. Right. So it's a, so that environment is important to understand. I mean, I have here, John Hudson is a good reporter on this stuff, says that Iran's supreme National Security Council says they destroyed the American air base. So, you know, that's going to be the word inside the country. And some people might believe that other people will suspend disbelief and pretend to believe it so as not to get run afoul of the government. And that is, you know, the nature of an authoritarian.
[06:37]
JVL
Well, I got some breaking news for you guys. It could be that this attack was actually an elaborate head fake for their real retaliation, which is that the Bulwark.com webpage is down. So they seem to have launched some. I mean, I can only assume that the cyber attack of Iranian cyber attack and that the missile barrage was meant to distract people from what their cyber teams were doing with the neocon warmongers at the Bulwark.
[07:04]
Sarah Longwell
We'll watch that.
[07:06]
Tim Miller
Can we wrestle with something that I want to talk to you guys about?
[07:09]
JVL
That's what we do here.
[07:10]
Tim Miller
I know, I know. So I read Bill Crystal, our guy, Bill Crystals, take this morning and morning shots. And I've got like a bit of a bone to pick with it. And it's. But it's interesting. I spent all weekend reading about Iran, really trying to understand it, trying to figure out how I felt about it. And I would say where I landed, I'll just lay it out for myself is if we have done real damage to the nuclear sites in Iran and we have run what appears to be a pretty professional mission, it's not clear we obliterated these sites. But even if we did a lot of damage to them. If we did significant deterrence to them in the future trying to build nuclear capabilities, that, to me, net net seems good. Like, I'm not so, like, my TDS is strong, but not so strong that I don't, can't see a good thing when it happens. And so Bill was laying out sort of some of this case for why it's good in there, though he did something that I can't, I don't think is right. But maybe, maybe this is my tds, which he sort of suggested that it's because Trump had a glimmer or a short term burst of an expression of American interests and that that drove him to make this particular, particular move. And I would say this is a little bit more like blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. Where really what this is, is Trump being led by Israel. Right. Him doing what Bibi wants him to do. However, because Iran is, is a bad, is a bad regime, like, and has been trying to get nukes, it is true we don't want them to get nukes. And so, like, it's good that we took them out. But the idea that Trump did it out of some American interest versus Trump being like, I want to be a guy who drops bombs on people and actually, let me just tell you, people who thought I was going to be a peacenik for you, I was lying because I like strong Trump. And so like Bill, Bill was giving him, like, I thought some deference that was not due to him. Anyway, that's about how I see it. But I'm interested in what you guys say.
[09:35]
Sarah Longwell
I think you missed a key fact. I think Trump is an old man that watches a lot of cable. His cable network of choice, Fox, is still pretty representative of the vestigial, militaristic elements of the Republican Party and that he was watching his favorite Fox commentators on his favorite stories talk about how great of a job Israel is doing and how awesome Bibi and Mossad are. And he was like, I want to get in on that action. I want that.
[10:06]
JVL
Why aren't they talking about me?
[10:08]
Sarah Longwell
They talk about how good I'm doing. I think it's like basically maybe 1cm deeper than that. I think that's about what was happening. That's my assessment.
[10:20]
JVL
Yeah, I mean, in fairness to Trump, I don't think it. At the end of the day, it ultimately doesn't matter why he did it. Like, if his motives were impure, so be it. If it's a good result, it isn't Clear to me that the results is going to be all that good, is the thing. I mean, first of all, we do have the fact that the President of the United States and the Secretary of Defense lied to the American people this weekend by claiming that the final blow had been dealt to the Iranian nuclear program and that it had been totally and completely obliterated. We now know that it happened kind.
[10:59]
Sarah Longwell
Of similar to the Iranian misinformation, honestly.
[11:02]
JVL
Kind of. Yeah, in a weird way. Yeah.
[11:05]
Tim Miller
But we sat there and we were like, how does he know it was obliterated? It just happened. Happened. Like, where is the. Where are the reports that. So it looks like, as the reports come in, probably not obliterated, but damaged.
[11:15]
JVL
So.
[11:15]
Tim Miller
So it's unclear how damaged it was.
[11:17]
JVL
Unclear how. Seriously. It is absolutely clear that our intelligence agencies have absolutely no idea where the 400 kilograms of, like, mostly that's disturbing, that, that we. That our intelligence apparatus doesn't have any idea where the most important thing is. They didn't touch the. So they, they seem to have probably damaged or blown up a lot of centrifuges, but they didn't touch the. The facility which builds the centrifuges so they can just build more. I mean, if you were looking to understand, how big of a blow does this represent? It looks like. And the worst case, a few months in the best case, like maybe a year or two, it didn't set them back 35 years. Did not seem to set them back 35 years. Again, things are still coming clear. We don't know yet, but from what it looks like, it looks like that's the range we're looking at. And that's, again, I will take that so long as the costs were reasonably low. And if this is where it all ends, right, if it ends with these missile strikes, then the costs were pretty low. Right. But I don't know, like, people working to people. That's a problem, isn't it?
[12:36]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Oh, yeah. My biggest take on this is very bulwarky, which is that the people making the maximalist case were totally wrong on both so far. On both sides. Right. Like, the people that were doing the chest beating, we eliminated, you know, all the nuclear materials. So it's an easy, clear win for Mr. Trump. All the doves are people making that. That argument have already been proven wrong. You know, based on what you just said and what the reporting is about the status of their nuclear program. The people that are like, well, this is, you know, I was watching just in the last hour as the Iranian missiles were coming through, you know, the Tucker Carlson wing of the party. You know, on social media, the Candace Owens I saw literally Candace Owens, not the Candace Owens wing. Candace Owens, like World War 3. It's happening quicker than I thought. It's all disintegrating. Like, not. That's not really the case so far. I think that there remain risks, which is me and, me and Bill hash this out. Folks can Watch this on YouTube. It'll be posted in a little bit where I just still fall on the side of it was too risky. And there are asymmetric risks now that we have that we didn't have last week necessarily. Like people who. Lone wolves that are radicalized Iranian proxies that decide to act either with Iranians encouragement or otherwise in Iraq and other places going after our folks. Like all those, all those are short term, acute risks we really didn't have besides kind of the baseline level of constant terrorist last week. And for me it's like, well, I didn't feel like this was worth it. And then in addition to my concerns about Trump's leadership. But yeah, I think it's pretty, it's pretty kind of amusing that we've gotten to a place in our political discourse where everyone immediately retreats to the maximalist view of, of things. And just so far in this case, it hasn't really borne out.
[14:27]
Tim Miller
Yeah. And I would say going back to something that I said on Saturday that I have, I, as things unfold, I believe it more and more, which is, it is a strange feeling to distrust the American government in these scenarios. Like, I haven't been in a situation before where I would just say, oh, the American intelligence, or what the President, United States is telling us now. I mean, obviously it's not the first time we've been here. Like, I mean, you could take weapons of mass destruction, whatever. But at least there I didn't think that the intent was to lie. Like, I, like they had bad intelligence. Ultimately, I, you know, whatever. I don't want to relitigate, maybe. But so, so maybe it's the president himself this time is like. And all the people he's appointed, like, I trust nobody. I don't think they're lit and they don't listen to their briefings. It's like what Pete Hegseth goes out there and briefs us. I have, I have no faith that anything we're being told is correct. And that's, that's a new feeling of just being like, yeah, I don't trust.
[15:30]
JVL
I'm confident that he does give glory To God.
[15:34]
Tim Miller
Yeah, sure.
[15:34]
JVL
I really think that that is.
[15:37]
Sarah Longwell
We love you.
[15:40]
JVL
We love you guys. Okay, so I guess we can put a pin in this and say, so far, pretty okay scenario. Not the worst case. If it turns out that the Iranian nuclear program is set back even like six to nine months, that'll be pretty good, right? Worth the trade, worth doing.
[16:02]
Sarah Longwell
I mean, no, sorry. Not worth the trade for me for six to nine months. I have to object to that. Three years. Worth it. If we pushed it back enough so that Trump is gone by the time they're enriching, That's. Then that's a fine deal for me. Six to nine months. Iran doing it, and then feeling like they need to butch up. That's not. That's not a win for me. Just wanted to say.
[16:25]
JVL
Yeah, fair. I mean, I. I would say if you want to take a bigger step back. The problem with kicking the can down the road as a strategic paradigm is that it does reinforce to Iran that they have to get a nuke. Right. I mean, this is not dissuading them and being like, hey, you know, there are ways to get what you want without becoming a nuclear power. This sort of thing does reinforce. Actually, the only protection anybody has in this world is nukes. And so, like, look how we're treated versus North Korea.
[16:59]
Sarah Longwell
Like, look how we're treated versus North Korea kind of mindset. Yeah.
[17:03]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
[17:03]
JVL
All right. You guys had. Want to talk about Lisa Murkowski, one of the great statesmen of our time. And I have no idea. I'm coming to this cold.
[17:12]
Tim Miller
Yeah. So you didn't know, but this is. This is a segment for you, though, because you have long kind of been like, why doesn't Lisa Murkowski switch sides? Why doesn't she caucus with the Democrats? And I've always been like, probably not gonna happen. And it's. You know, and it's a lot of the. The other side is worse. She doesn't feel like a Democrat, but she's got a book coming out, and in it, she talks about the fact that not only have has she been approached a number of times to switch sides, but that she has also considered it. Now, I haven't read the book or seen the real excerpts, but the fact that she's considering it, I have. I have, like, more and more. I actually now believe that someone like Lisa Murkowski, the dump, should lobby extremely hard to get her on side. Like, she is being forced into positions all the time that she doesn't want to be, and she doesn't want to have to vote with Republicans on confirming Cash Patel like she, she, she is more often a reliable vote against them. Which means the incoming for Lisa Murkowski if you vote against Trump is like, she must be taking talk about getting radicalized. I don't know how many MAGA voters she probably hears from who say the kinds of things that probably make her be like, you know what? I'm not sure this is my team anymore. And the more that Trump does implement his policy vision, tariffs and other things, my guess is, is that she's feeling increasingly alienated from what the Republican side is in a way that is more acute than it might have been two years ago during Joe Biden's term. And so I would just make an earnest pitch to Democrats to make if she has, if she is like remotely open to it. That is a, that is valuable. Go get Lisa Murkowski.
[19:01]
Sarah Longwell
Jbl, before you talk, I want to tell you, I want to give you an exact quote from her about why she ultimately has not decided to make the change that I'm interested in Your take. She says ultimately she more closely aligns with the GOP on policy than the Dems more closely aligns with is her assessment.
[19:20]
JVL
Did she do like a pro and con list?
[19:22]
Sarah Longwell
Like, seems it kind of felt like.
[19:24]
JVL
Free trade and favor of good classical architecture in federal buildings. I look, I mean, I think it would be the right thing to do to simply not be part of the Republican Party. On the other hand, from her perspective, to switch and lose your committee assignments and not be able to deliver for your state, which then really does risk your, you know, risk that seat going to Cletus von Ivermectin. That's, that's risky, right? I would say you probably don't want to switch unless switching puts you in the majority.
[20:03]
Tim Miller
Well, hold on a second. Here's, here's what, here's what I think has changed about it. I should have said this out of the gate. She just got elected. Right. And she is also hitting an age. We're running for another term after this starts to get pretty wobbly. And if you were going to make a switch now would be like, I agree. She. Because voters the reason that Lisa Murkowski wins. I've done a lot of focus groups in Alaska about this. They know they vote for her in part because she's got juice. They know she's got juice. In fact, they're much more attuned to that than any other state knows about their senator.
[20:39]
JVL
And what kind so much welfare than the rest of Us, so.
[20:42]
Tim Miller
That's right. But I think that for her personally right now, the statement of leaving, I actually think one of the things that would hurt her the most, I bet when she says more policy aligned. I find that actually difficult to believe now with what the Republican Party. It's more that she is in a position to get things for her state that nobody else is. And I don't know if I, if, if, if, if I were her and I didn't have to face another election or very likely didn't. It's just the right thing to do. Like, she must hate it dealing with these guys.
[21:20]
Sarah Longwell
And this goes to the fantasy scenario. Can everybody. Everybody's down right now. You know, things are. But can I give everybody just a fantasy scenario is what she should actually do. But, like, if it was not for. And I know this is fantasy politics. It's the West Wing. Sarah's gonna roll her eyes. But, like, practically speaking, Bill Cassidy, Mitch McConnell are dead politically. Not literally. They're dead. Like, they're both. Mitch Collins already said he's resigning. Bill Cassidy is politically dead here in Louisiana. Susan Collins, I think, is politically alive, but it's kind of a very, very challenging reelect this time. She did the last time, but this time she's in the midterm cycle, which is going to make it very tough for her, I think, to win.
[21:59]
JVL
Why doesn't she just switch?
[22:01]
Tim Miller
You know what? Instead of switching, they should become independent. They should become independent.
[22:06]
Sarah Longwell
You're taking my point. The four of them together. So if the question is power for Alaska, like, it' like it's power and you want to actually wield legislative power. The four of them could go to Chuck Schumer and say, hey, we're going to bail. You got to make Lisa the Senate Majority leader. That's part of the deal. We need all 45. 47, essentially. Dems, 45, plus Bernie and what's his name, Angus. Every time I bring that up, anybody in Washington, like, says that I'm crazy, but I don't really understand why all four of them could get what they wanted. They could all get what they wanted that way. And they're all kind of varying degrees of politically dead. So anyway, it's probably not gonna happen, but I would just. If, you know, Lisa Murkowski, I'd put that little bug in her ear because that seems a little less scary than being like, I'm gonna be a Democrat and then I'm a lame duck and now I have no power and I'm in the minority. Why Would I do that? It's like, here's a path to being not only in the majority, but maybe the Senate Majority Leader. And think about how great that would look on your little statue in Anchorage, former Senate Majority Leader Lisa Murkowski. How about that?
[23:14]
JVL
Yeah.
[23:14]
Tim Miller
The only. The problem in that scenario is not Murkowski, and it's not the Democrats. It's Mitch McConnell and, like, probably Cassidy and, like, it's. So that's the fantasy part. Fantasy part's not her.
[23:29]
Sarah Longwell
But he could get back on behalf of his wife, Elaine Chow.
[23:34]
Tim Miller
He should. Well, this is where Mitch McConnell is. Like, of all the people, give me a ranked choice voting that involves a bunch of terrible people and Mitch McConnell.
[23:43]
JVL
Because I want to put him at the ZO.
[23:45]
Sarah Longwell
Just joking. Just joking. Okay.
[23:49]
Tim Miller
He is everything that's been wrong, and he's not redeeming himself with these, like, late in the game, no votes. This. The only thing that would ever redeem Mitch McConnell is this move. Is this plan.
[24:03]
Sarah Longwell
Let's make it happen.
[24:05]
JVL
Yeah, I guess. I guess. But what we will actually wind up getting is probably like, Fetterman switching sides and becoming a Republican. Right? We won't actually get any of the Republicans who should be Democrats. None of them will move. Instead, we'll get a Democrat who should be a Democrat switching over and becoming a Republican.
[24:25]
Sarah Longwell
Because that I would like to jbl.
[24:27]
JVL
Is the timeline we exist in.
[24:29]
Tim Miller
Yeah, you. I want to give you a jbl. I think your. Your agitation for Lisa Murkowski to not be with the Republicans was always a good one. Your Fetterman instincts, man, have they gone south on you?
[24:43]
JVL
I mean, can't let him fence there was a health event. I mean, the guy had a stroke. Right.
[24:52]
Sarah Longwell
Pre stroke. This is.
[24:55]
JVL
You know, I feel like everything should always be with the caveat of unless something terrible happens to their body health. Right. Like, you shouldn't have to add that. You, you know, you shouldn't have to say.
[25:07]
Tim Miller
Do you think the stroke is why he's like this, though?
[25:10]
JVL
Yeah. Yeah.
[25:14]
Tim Miller
Okay. I'm not sure about that.
[25:18]
JVL
I. I don't know. Like, personality shifts post stroke is a thing that happens all the time. I am not a doctor. I was once one sixteenth of the way to being a doctor once.
[25:27]
Tim Miller
1 16th of a doctor.
[25:29]
JVL
But it, I mean, it seems pretty clear to me that something dramatic changed after he had a stroke. And so, like, I don't know. I mean, Occam's Razor, but. Right. That's what we'll get in the same way that we got, like, Christian Sinema switching sides. Right. This is, this is the world we live in. Everything goes the worst way possible very quickly. The Iran strikes so far like the Iran strike. We have the New York City mayoral primary tomorrow. Does anybody want to say anything else before we. Zoran walking once again to Manhattan yesterday.
[26:08]
Sarah Longwell
I'd like to once again formally endorse.
[26:11]
Tim Miller
Who are you formally endorsing? Tim?
[26:13]
Sarah Longwell
People continue to attack me. Folks that are going to remain nameless from our, from our past continue to attack me for platforming. Zo run and ask him a question. Zellner Myri is a great choice. You should rank him number for number one. Brad Lander. A little lib for my taste. Totally fine. Would do a great job. Adrian Adams. Totally fine. Three Somebody to think about. Whitney Tilson. No chance to win. Capitalist though Night strong.
[26:46]
JVL
Number four.
[26:48]
Sarah Longwell
So you've got a lot of options New York. It's not too late. Zoran. I did think his, his campaign is like he's, you gotta give credit where it's due. He's, he's doing a great campaign. He's running a great campaign besides the way he handled that one question But.
[27:04]
JVL
I don't. We were talking in our.
[27:08]
Sarah Longwell
And I think that there's gonna be a shy Cuomo vote. I think there are people not telling pollsters that they are gonna rank Cuomo and I think there's also Cuomo is gonna do the best of the types of people that don't answer their phones. So I, I, that's, I have no evidence of this. It's just a gut theory feeling that Cuomo will do better than these pulse.
[27:24]
JVL
But maybe if Zoran pulls it off we do get a chance to have the, the Republican and Hell's. Hell's Angels. Guardian angels.
[27:34]
Sarah Longwell
No Eric Adams. I think an Eric Adams reelection Zoran wins is much more likely than people.
[27:39]
JVL
Because then we have a four way race.
[27:41]
Tim Miller
Yeah but you split among the three Democrats and you end up with the Republican.
[27:46]
Sarah Longwell
I mean Democrats.
[27:48]
JVL
Yeah right. It's all insane. It's all insane.
[27:54]
Tim Miller
It's all insane. Here's what I would say. I, I'm getting a lot of people being like you hate Zoran.
[28:01]
JVL
And I'm like you were pretty mean.
[28:03]
Sarah Longwell
You were pretty mean about him. I will say I can see why people would say that. It's fine. I'm just saying that's why it's not like people misinterpreted you. You were like I don't like that young man one bit.
[28:15]
Tim Miller
I don't like that. I do not like his Ideas.
[28:18]
JVL
You asked to speak to his manager.
[28:20]
Tim Miller
I do not think that people. This is. Shut up, jbl. Because people. Some people have called me a Karen over this, which is.
[28:29]
JVL
You're a Sarah. You're not a Karen, you're a Sarah.
[28:34]
Tim Miller
Yeah. No, I do not want to speak to his manager. I. I think he is. I said this the first time we talked about him. I think he is running an incredibly good campaign from a, like, young insurgent. I know how to talk to people. I'm charismatic. A lot of those things are the things that we would like Democrats to be. I would like them to be those things without the horrible ideas. Like, without the both the silly, fantastical policy ideas. And here's the thing, and this was before we went on the show that time. I don't even know if I said this to you, or maybe I did say it on the secret podcast, but he didn't just whitewash it. With Tim, the idea of globalize the Intifada, which he has. Somebody had sent me some of his old tweets that had not been widely circulated in which he was celebrating the idea of a third intifada. You know, like, there is. This is a. This is a guy who has a. Now and again, I don't even know if I've ever, like, talked about my positions on Israel at length, but I have no friend to Bibi Netanyahu and this Israeli government. And the longer what happens in Gaza goes on, the. The more sick to my stomach, like, they're not. It doesn't matter how I feel personally, but, like, I am against the way that Israel is handling the way it goes after civilians, like, and I think that they should be doing more to get civilian aid or allow civilian aid. And so it is not that I'm like one of these, like some of our old friends, people who think they. You can never hold Israel to account on anything. Regardless, I am broadly supportive, though, of their right to exist free from the terror that they experienced on October 7th. And if you know what happened in the second intifada, the idea that somebody would say globalize the intifada is a fine thing to say is actually an extremely. It is an extreme statement. An extreme statement. And I have a couple red lines for politicians trying to overturn elections. Is one of them calling, you know, for widespread, like, the overthrow, the violent overthrowing of an allied country. As much as I might be against the, like, current government and some of the policies, I do find, like, it's not, It's. It's not for me it's like a red line for me. And so I don't hate him, but I wouldn't rank him.
[31:08]
JVL
Can I just ask one question of you guys? I mean this sincerely. What is the case for Zoran over Bradlander? Like Brad Lander gives you, if you are a progressive and you're a liberal, Brad Lander gives you a lot of that stuff. But he actually knows how the city works is it just vibes, right? Like Zoran's good hang Bradley inner circle.
[31:34]
Sarah Longwell
For the inner circle of DSA socialist types, they would say, well, it's because he's going to do these socialist policies that then when, when people who criticize him bring it up, they're like, you have Zoran derangement syndrome. He only wants the 5, the 5 test communist grocery stores. He doesn't want all of them to be grocery, you know, all of them to be state run. And like I actually kind of land more Zoran on that during our conversation. He did feel like, more like he was trying to experiment with lefty ideas rather than he wanted the overthrow of the capitalist system. But I think that the inner circle of DSA types like think that he's really with them and he has to do some winking stuff to get people on board. Then there's another category of people who I'm very sympathetic to as well who are genuinely excited about having a young fresh face who shares some of their social views and have been beaten down by whatever you think about them, Hillary, Biden, Schumer, the Democratic elite. There's a lot of young college educated people in New York that want somebody to be very excited about who came of age after Obama. There's not really been anybody since Obama that young Democrats have been excited about. I'm sympathetic to, to that. They're excited about that. And then I think there's another category of people there for the case for them is that Cuomo is so awful and I'm stuck with this guy. And then I think there's another category. People don't quite understand really what his, what his platform is.
[32:54]
Tim Miller
And Cuomo is awful.
[32:56]
Sarah Longwell
To be clear, Cuomo's horrible on personal and policy grounds. Yes, he's awful across the board.
[33:06]
Tim Miller
Your point before, and I think my point too is that there was like for some reason like we didn't make this choice, that it would come down to Zoran and Cuomo. New Yorkers appear to have made that choice. There were plenty of other rich people.
[33:23]
Sarah Longwell
Who circled the wagons around Cuomo who deserved condemnation, by the way. There's some rich business types. Cuomo has a ton of money on tv and like they could have circled the wagons around the millions of other New Yorkers who are capitalist that are Democrats and could have opposed Trump and they chose to circle wagons around Cuomo and that was a big problem too.
[33:44]
Tim Miller
Yeah. So I'm sorry, I'm mad about your choices, New York, but I am indeed. I think that for the greatest city in the world, we should be able to do better than this. And so for people yelling at me that like, why aren't I in love with Zoran? Like, I'm sorry, I'm not. He's a democratic socialist. I am a moderate centrist capitalist. Like capital. Like, yes, not gonna find purchase with me.
[34:09]
JVL
I know you say that New York should be able to do better. Historically speaking, they haven't. I mean, it's been a generation. Do you ever think you'd look back and build a Blasio and be like, man, I wish we could have another build? I don't look back on build a.
[34:20]
Tim Miller
Blasio that way, but I've looked that way on Bloomberg.
[34:22]
Sarah Longwell
That first Bloomberg term was good. That first Bloomberg term looking good. Ed Coke, Koch, Mayor Lindsay, he did a good job back in the 70s. Mayor Lindsay did a good job, I think. So I've been told. I don't know.
[34:38]
JVL
I like that we can laugh and we can only have this part of the discussion because things looking okay because we live in the topsy turvy world so far.
[34:47]
Sarah Longwell
Stop jinxing it.
[34:48]
JVL
Jvl An Iranian airstrike on an American military base is a good thing. Hope that everybody is okay.
[34:59]
Sarah Longwell
Hold on, we got one more thing before you got to go.
[35:01]
JVL
Yeah, go ahead.
[35:02]
Sarah Longwell
Our own personal Iranian supreme leader has put out a statement letting you know, you in particular with the N word in it that you are wrong about the fake news. You are the fake news. Jvl the sites were totally destroyed and everyone knows it. And the Allison Cooper of fake news cnn. And then he lists Johnny Carl, abc. He lists all. He's gonna watch a lot of tv. All of the people on TV that he does.
[35:29]
Tim Miller
He wants to see how his big bombs are playing.
[35:32]
JVL
So why isn't. Why is. Has he not fired Raisin Cain? Because Raisin is the first person who said, you know, I understand Everybody's interested in BDU's, but you know, battle BDA is battle damage assessments. But you know, we can't do that right now and it's gonna take time. Like, why didn't Trump fire him then?
[35:55]
Sarah Longwell
I think we know the answer to that trivia.
[35:56]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
[35:58]
Sarah Longwell
Because he has a cool because he has a cool nickname, and he wants to do propaganda and make Allison Cooper and Johnny. Oh, wait. It just, it just occurred to me that that's Anderson Cooper, that that's a homophobic nickname.
[36:08]
Tim Miller
Oh, it's a homophobic Allison Cooper.
[36:11]
Sarah Longwell
Took me a second.
[36:12]
JVL
You were flipping Allison Camerata.
[36:15]
Sarah Longwell
I had Allison Camerata in my mind. Yeah. So there you go. That's why jbl, because he couldn't make a homophobic joke about the head of his military, so he's going to attack CNN instead, I think is the answer. So there you go.
[36:28]
JVL
Good luck, America.
[36:29]
Sarah Longwell
Good luck. See you guys. What a great show.