7: Bill and Tim React to New York Mayor Race and ZOHRAN-MENTUM

Summary

Bulwark Takes - Episode 7: Bill and Tim React to New York Mayor Race and ZORAN-MANDANIUM

Release Date: June 25, 2025

In Episode 7 of "Bulwark Takes," hosts Tim Miller and Bill Kristol engage in a comprehensive analysis of the New York City mayoral race, focusing on the surprising advancements of Democratic Socialist candidate Zoran Mandani against the establishment favorite, Andrew Cuomo. This detailed discussion uncovers the dynamics of the race, the effectiveness of campaign strategies, and the broader implications for the Democratic Party.

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1. Introduction and Preliminary Insights

The episode begins with a live-stream setup where Tim Miller introduces Bill Kristol, setting the stage for an impromptu discussion on the New York mayoral race. Early indicators suggest a significant shift in voter preference towards Zoran Mandani, a Democratic Socialist candidate, despite his initial low polling numbers.

Notable Quote:

• Tim Miller [00:59]: “All signs point to Zoram Mandani, the Democratic socialist candidates winning the Democratic nomination for mayor in New York.”

2. Polling and Voting Trends

Tim Miller presents the latest polling data, indicating that Mandani is leading Cuomo by approximately 3 to 5% in the first ballot of the ranked-choice voting system. He speculates that Mandani's lead could narrow further as votes are redistributed from other candidates.

Key Points:

• Mandani is currently leading in key areas such as Queens, Staten Island, and Brooklyn.
• Cuomo's support remains strong in orthodox Jewish areas and several affluent neighborhoods.
• The ranked-choice voting system may ultimately solidify Mandani's lead.

Notable Quote:

• Bill Kristol [03:06]: “He was literally 2% in the polls... but now he's leading by six, seven points maybe.”

3. Demographic Support and Geographic Distribution

The discussion delves into the geographic distribution of support for both candidates across New York City's boroughs. Mandani's unexpected success in traditionally conservative and diverse areas underscores a broadening appeal beyond his core Democratic Socialist base.

Key Points:

• Mandani is performing exceptionally well in hipster neighborhoods like Ridgewood, Bushwick, and East Williamsburg.
• Cuomo's strongholds include areas with high concentrations of Orthodox Jews and affluent neighborhoods near Fifth Avenue.

Notable Quote:

• Tim Miller [07:16]: “Zoran is winning in Queens with 90% in... winning Ridgewood plus 69, Bushwick plus 66.”

4. Campaign Strategies: Mandani vs. Cuomo

A significant portion of the conversation contrasts Mandani's innovative campaign tactics with Cuomo's traditional, media-heavy approach. Mandani's use of podcasts, grassroots engagement, and authentic interactions has resonated with voters, particularly younger demographics.

Key Points:

• Mandani's grassroots efforts include engaging with voters through podcasts and direct community interactions.
• Cuomo's campaign relies heavily on TV advertisements, which have failed to sway undecided voters effectively.

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Miller [09:25]: “...shows that you're willing to humble yourself to like, to be a Democratic politician.”
• Bill Kristol [10:24]: “The TV ads did no good and if anything were a contrarian indicator.”

5. The Failure of the Democratic Establishment

Tim Miller and Bill Kristol critique the Democratic establishment for their lack of a viable alternative to Cuomo. They argue that the establishment's passive approach and over-reliance on Cuomo's legacy have allowed Mandani to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction.

Key Points:

• The Democratic establishment failed to support a more moderate or dynamic candidate.
• Heavy financial investments in Cuomo's campaign did not translate into electoral success.
• The establishment's inability to adapt to modern campaign strategies contributed to their downfall.

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Miller [28:53]: “They put up a guy way past his prime... they let a populist upstart candidate just run circles around them.”
• Bill Kristol [33:43]: “You have to make some tough decisions and do some serious people into these races and support them.”

6. Zoran Mandani's Potential Mayoral Tenure

The hosts speculate on Mandani's future as mayor, discussing the challenges he may face in balancing progressive policies with effective governance. They express both optimism and concern regarding his ability to implement his platform while managing the diverse needs of New York City.

Key Points:

• Mandani could face opposition from various constituencies, including activist groups and established business interests.
• His ability to navigate complex governance issues will be crucial to his success as mayor.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill Kristol [28:21]: “What will he do in the next few days?... It doesn't disagree with you guys who are so pro-Israel, frankly.”

7. Broader Implications for the Democratic Party

The election serves as a microcosm for the Democratic Party's broader challenges. The success of a Democratic Socialist candidate highlights the electorate's desire for more authentic and grassroots-driven leadership, prompting a potential reevaluation of campaign strategies nationwide.

Key Points:

• Democratic Party might need to adopt more authentic and grassroots-focused campaign tactics.
• The success of Mandani could inspire similar candidates in other regions, influencing future elections.

Notable Quote:

• Tim Miller [37:56]: “The takeaway here needs to be that... that energy that Zoran brought has to be translated into other parts of the country.”

8. Conclusion and Future Outlook

The episode concludes with reflections on the unpredictable nature of elections and the critical lessons learned from the New York mayoral race. Tim Miller anticipates further analyses, including upcoming interviews that will delve deeper into Mandani's campaign and its implications.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill Kristol [35:28]: “It's going to be interesting. I mean, these elections, it's very unpredictable.”
• Tim Miller [41:53]: “If you just combine all these things... and refocus to something a little bit different in the rest of the country.”

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Tim Miller [00:59]: “All signs point to Zoram Mandani, the Democratic socialist candidates winning the Democratic nomination for mayor in New York.”
• Bill Kristol [03:06]: “He was literally 2% in the polls... but now he's leading by six, seven points maybe.”
• Tim Miller [07:16]: “Zoran is winning in Queens with 90% in... winning Ridgewood plus 69, Bushwick plus 66.”
• Tim Miller [09:25]: “...shows that you're willing to humble yourself to like, to be a Democratic politician.”
• Bill Kristol [10:24]: “The TV ads did no good and if anything were a contrarian indicator.”
• Tim Miller [28:53]: “They put up a guy way past his prime... they let a populist upstart candidate just run circles around them.”
• Bill Kristol [33:43]: “You have to make some tough decisions and do some serious people into these races and support them.”
• Tim Miller [37:56]: “The takeaway here needs to be that... that energy that Zoran brought has to be translated into other parts of the country.”

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Key Takeaways

1. Zoran Mandani’s Unexpected Surge: Mandani's rise from 2% polling to leading the Democratic primary underscores a significant shift driven by effective grassroots campaigning and broad demographic appeal.
2. Weaknesses of the Democratic Establishment: The establishment's failure to support a strong, modern campaign against Cuomo reflects deeper strategic deficiencies within the party.
3. Importance of Authentic, Modern Campaign Tactics: Mandani’s use of podcasts, grassroots engagement, and authentic voter interactions contrasts sharply with Cuomo’s traditional media-heavy approach.
4. Implications for Future Democratic Campaigns: The New York mayoral race serves as a model for how Democrats nationwide might adopt more authentic and grassroots-focused strategies to resonate with voters.
5. Potential Challenges Ahead: While Mandani’s victory is significant, his ability to manage the complexities of New York City governance and address diverse constituency needs remains to be seen.

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This episode of "Bulwark Takes" offers a rich and engaging exploration of the New York City mayoral race, providing listeners with valuable insights into the evolving landscape of Democratic politics and the effectiveness of modern campaign strategies.

Transcript

[Tim Miller]

Hey everybody, Tim Miller from the Bulwark here with Bill Kristol. We're doing an impromptu live stream as we have some pretty remarkable numbers coming in out of New York and New York mayor's race. Before I get to the details on that, kind of let people get on in here. Make sure if you've been interested in getting more of your YouTube subscriber to the Bulwark, you want to get ad free. If you want to get some of the bonus content that we offer here on YouTube, you can become a YouTube plus member which is for the YouTube sickos. And you know, we're out here grinding in the content minds. I mean Bill Crystal is 87 years old. He's putting out more content than most of the competitors in the space. These little 21 year olds can't even compete with his stamina. So anyway, if you want to see all of that, you can go on YouTube plus Bill, that sound about right? Do you have any other. You're a big YouTube plus person.

[Bill Kristol]

That was great. I'm a big, I'm on YouTube 24 7, you know, barely even sleep. You know what I mean?

[Tim Miller]

You're streaming. All right. Hopefully folks have gotten in. I want to, I wanted to get to the results here. We don't, we don't have an official result yet, but all signs point to Zoram Mandani, the Democratic socialist candidates winning the Democratic nomination for mayor in New York. As of the latest numbers I saw he's, you know, he's winning in this first ballot of this ranked choice voting by a couple percent. He might end up winning this first round by somewhere in the ballpark of 3 to 5%. Maybe, I don't know, maybe even a little more than that. And then, then you'll go through the ranked choice. We thought this might be something that'll take days but given that Andrew Cuomo is chief competition was in second, third and third right now is Brad Lander who had co endorsed with Mamdani. So logic would indicate that, that most of the Lander support wind up going to Mandani and that he'll, he'll end up winning this one. We have Michael Lange, who I know both of us been following has, has already called it himself saying that that Zoron's going to win. So that that's like the top takeaway if you look at the map. Bill, I want to get your thoughts but. And the map tells the story. I'm cribbing this from our friends at decision desk hq, but Cuomo's Strong areas are essentially limited to the orthodox Jewish areas like Borough Park. He also did well in some of the blackest precincts and the precincts that has the highest percentage of black residents and then a few ultra wealthy neighborhoods around fifth Avenue. So some of you, some Bill, some of your old folks you went to high school with. So that's not a, that's not a majority making map there for Cuomo. Zara does surprisingly well out in Queens, out in Staten island, like winning half the precincts in some of these areas, doing kind of surprisingly. And obviously he's going to do well in Brooklyn, you know, and maybe the hipster neighborhoods in Queens. But it seems like he did surprisingly well even outside of that. So that's, that's kind of the initial observation on the map. Bill, what would you, what do you make of what we've seen so far?

[Bill Kristol]

I mean we should just step back for a minute and what everyone thinks of the result and there's a policy or implications. It's pretty amazing. I mean he was literally 2% in the polls. Not like with Buttigieg, not to minimize Pete's achievement when he ran for president in 2019. 20, but not at 2% a year and a half out. He was at 2% this year in what, February, I believe he started to move up. But three weeks ago still it was, well, gee, he might make a little more of a race of it than we thought. He could be within 10 or 12 maybe with the ranch choice voting then and Landrew being in third place and being endorsing Mamdani, it could be very, very close. At the end. It looks to me like he's going to lead by six, seven points maybe. Then the early vote just on the, in the last hour and a half, I mean the early vote came in and it was about eight points from. And people thought, okay, well that's kind of what they expected if it was going to be very, very close because Cuomo would do better the same day on the election day vote. The election day vote is held, has barely changed the numbers, actually. I mean, and, and the other thing is, as you said, the breath, I mean, you exaggerate a little about quote, he is going to end up with, you know, 40,000 votes or something. So it's not like only 12 orthodox shoes.

[Tim Miller]

I'm in the precincts.

[Bill Kristol]

He was winning people, 15 people at, you know, 1020 Fifth Avenue or something like that across from the Veteran Museum of Art. But, but still it is pretty striking the breadth of. You can't get the Number of votes mom dummy is going to get which is going to be in the low 40, 40 plus range in a 1.15, maybe 1.2 maybe million voter primary. New York City is a big city. You know, people say, oh, it's just one city primary. You know, it's like the size of many states. So it's a lot of people voted and you can't get that number of votes out. Getting votes from everyone, including lots of middle class whites actually. Honestly. And not just.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, right. I mean look at Staten island hipsters.

[Bill Kristol]

And ethnic groups and youth. I mean he obviously must have done overwhelmingly well with young voters. I don't know the city well enough and I haven't had the time to.

[Tim Miller]

Look at, I mean results by burrow. Let me just give you the results by borough right now as it stands. So Cuomo +9 in Staten island and some of the folks that I was seeing this morning looking at projections like you'd win by 40.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

You know, so you are obviously doing well with working class voters in Staten Island. In the Bronx, Cuomo is plus 18. Mondani is winning in Queensland with 90% in. That was. And then, and then I think that was kind of expected that he would win narrowly in Manhattan, which he has. And then, and then roll up in Brooklyn. So, you know, it is, I think the surprising result does come, you know, kind of in those outer boroughs where it was thought that Cuomo would do much better.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, it must mean he's. He won. Those out of boroughs have a lot of different diverse groups and a lot of hipsters in Brooklyn, they. That's a fun part that I guess some of the New York political pros don't of the comedy corridor, which is the hipster areas through Brooklyn. And so it's not like Manhattan is, you know, it's not like Greenwich Village. It's the only hip place in New York anywhere, anything like that. So it doesn't more complicated to look for. But basically Cuomo had had to win Queens. His father was from Queens. The Cuomo family, you know, has won a lot of elections in Queens over 40, 50 years. And in that respect that Mamdani looks like he's going to actually defeat Cuomo and Queens, the more conservative people would usually say of the big four boroughs, Bronx, Manhattan and Brooklyn. It's pretty astonishing. It shows the degree of revulsion that obviously it shows that Mandani ran an extremely effective campaign. And I want to hear you since you interviewed him, I want to hear from you about that.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I Have some thoughts on that.

[Bill Kristol]

But it also shows that people wanted change and they did not want a 67 year old, three term, almost three term governor of New York who left, he had to resign in disgrace and who's decided to come back to the city which he didn't like much and. And you know, bestow upon the city the gift of his mayor see, which he didn't seem to mayorship, which he didn't seem to work want to work very hard for. I mean it is a kind of. In that respect, this is a novelistic situation, don't you think? I mean if you were. This is one of the. Of all the races you've seen, I've seen. I feel like this one fits the most out of a kind of well written political novel. You know, where you begin.

[Tim Miller]

Oh yeah. And the characters. Like how would you even have written it? I. I'm on Donnie just in a lot of ways. And I think JBL wrote this. It's kind of a caricature of what like a National Review Republican would think of a left person. Right. So like could he is a fictional character and then he's Muslim.

[Bill Kristol]

He was born, I think he was born in Uganda. His mother's from India, I believe.

[Tim Miller]

I mean I went to Bowdoin.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

And Cuomo is such a caricature and obviously the sex pest element, but he's a Nepo baby. I'd like the whole thing all the way down. You kept talking about the hipster neighborhoods, Bill. And I think we might have a new. We might be able to kind of create a hipster index based on the percent victory above Mandani. I'm looking at his biggest neighborhoods. He's winning Ridgewood plus 69. Nice. Bushwick plus 66. East Williamsburg plus 61. Greenpoint plus 57. Up in Astoria. The hipsters are moving up to Astoria now. Plus 52. Bed Stuy plus 43. I mean I think that sort of tells the story. East village was 37. If you look at the Cuomo side. I mean he's, you know, he's. He's running up the score up in like Far Rockaway, you know, places like that.

[Bill Kristol]

So I looked at where I grew up and you know, Cuomo is winning the Upper west side, which is actually a little ritzier than richer than when I live there. But he's not slaughtering Ma Ma there. And when you add the lander vote and he's the cost endorsed with mamadani controller Jewish. So has that appeal to the Upper west side? It's even with her a little bit ahead of so on rank Shore's voting. Let's put it this way. Get to the final round. Mandani will be close to even in places with might win like the Upper west side still lose the Upper east sides. You're still right about the Park Avenue, Fifth Avenue, Fifth folks. They're not. I don't know. There must be. I mean, I've been texting with a few of my friend. My friends in New York are. Didn't like Cuomo, but basically did not, did not vote for mom daddy. So they were Cuomo voters or, and, or at least put Cuomo on their rank and didn't put mom Donnie or.

[Tim Miller]

Conscientious objectors down their Myri voters.

[Bill Kristol]

And they're. Yeah. And they're. They seem to be taking it okay so far. I mean.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, that's good. Here's what I want to say.

[Bill Kristol]

Property in the suburbs, I'm needless to say.

[Tim Miller]

Well, their tax rate's gonna go up, but, you know, we'll see. They'll have the free grocery store that they'll be able to go to. I want to say that. Well, one other thing. Just about how astonishing it is that what Zoran overcame is in addition to all things you said about the Cuomo name, about how low he was in the polls, Cuomo had just burned a ton of money and there was a ton of cash on tv. Swamped Mom, Dani on the, on the financial side. And this is kind of a little pet issue of mine that the TV ad campaign just ain't working like it used to. And you saw this in the GOP primary. I was always banging the story about DeSantis, especially in these high impact races where people are paying attention, they're getting their information from these things, not from the TV ads. And so a lot of rich New Yorkers blew a lot of cash on Cuomo's TV ads. So sucks to be you. They probably should have circled the wagon around a better person. Yeah. Go ahead.

[Bill Kristol]

Point out that they read up massively the super PACs, Bloomberg put in $8 million and stuff in the last three, four, five weeks. It seems this, it's very. A lot of evidence now from the polling that Donnie gained in the last three, four, five weeks. And the best proof of that is that his election day vote was as good, almost as good as his early vote, which is. Yeah, you know, you know, those are late. The late break must have been, you know, when they asked that question on the presidential exit polls. When did you. Who'd you decide? When did you decide? I bet. So you're absolutely right. The TV ads did no good and if anything were a contrarian indicator.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, tough break. So here's what I want to say about Zoran and because, you know, Zoran's gotten the business around here from some of our colleagues in particular. And when I interviewed him, I had a chance to ask him about all the things I was concerned about with him from a policy standpoint. Some of the stuff that didn't get attention is stuff I cared more about, which was, you know, particularly the kind of the track record of mayors such as him, of progressive mayors. You look at Brandon Johnson in Chicago is doing a horrible job and even most Democrats think he's doing a horrible job. And so I was concerned is he going to be able to kind of to go against the grain in a way that some others haven't. We might have a chance to see it turns out though, he'll have a general election against probably Eric Adams, maybe Andrew Cuomo again. But if Andrew Cuomo gets embarrassed tonight, I'm kind of, I'd be kind of surprised if he ran again, but we'll see. But here's what I, here's what I was impressed with with Zoran and I, I have been out here saying to any Democrat that will listen that like they're all running old playbooks and that in big time races maybe it's different in house races and you know, they're different. You know, Abigail Spamberger I think has a different calculus in Virginia because, you know, there are a lot of things happening in Virginia, but in these competitive, high profile races, they need to start running more modern campaigns, both tactically, which means going on podcast, freewheeling podcasts and showing your personality, being authentic, taking hard questions, not being scared of talking to my ass and having Cam Caskey be your fanboy on the side, right? Like doing it, letting it up, showing people that you're a real person. For all of the little controversy that surrounded it afterwards, I heard from a lot of people who are not, who are not your prototypical Zoran voter who listen to it and like, oh, he was better than I expected, right? Like that stuff matter. People care about that stuff now you should have the, have the balls to go out and make a case and, and be yourself and go into hostile territories, go everywhere. As my friend Liz Smith says, who is Pete's advisor. Zoran did that like he went everywhere. He did Derek Thompson in my podcast. He did cometown like he did. He did all of the things he was out there, number two, put at the center of the campaign. Not the identity stuff, but working class concerns. He did that. He campaigned like he was a man of the people. Andrew Cuomo, literally, this stuff is kind of stupid when it comes to actual governance, but this stuff matters in campaigns. Andrew Cuomo took a car five blocks from the house that he's staying in. I don't think he even lives in Manhattan right now, to his voting place today. Like, had a driver and got out of the backseat of the car. Zoran, I think it was last night or two nights ago, walked the length of Manhattan, was fist bumping guys. They were taking videos. Some people were shouting bullshit at him. He was shouting bullshit back. That is real. Like, that shows that you're willing to humble yourself to like, to be a Democratic politician. That's among the people that cares about working class people. He's also able to break through the kind of political chattering class to folks who are outside of that. Like, any Democrat can do this. I got into a little argument with one of like a DSA type advisor on Twitter last night who was like, you can only do that if you're, if you're a democratic socialist. Like, you have to be the whole package. I disagree with that. I was like, any Democrat could do this. Maybe it wouldn't resonate quite as much as he did with certain demos, for sure. That any Democrat could, you know, focus on working class issues, could get outside the bubble, could stop campaigning so cautiously, you know, could let it rip a little more, could learn a little bit from Trump's tactics. Not that Zoran and Trump or anything like, but like, just with that, like being yourself and not like caring about, not being cautious about your words. And that's, that's what people want now. And for him, it resonated and it's great. And I think that despite my disagreements with them and my deep skepticism that he'll actually be a good mayor, we'll, we will see if he gets that chance. Like, people got excited and the Democrats have had a long period of not exciting anybody. And I think that if they thought they were going to put up Andrew Cuomo's corpse and like, and, and jack them through with TV ads. Sorry, like, that doesn't work anymore. And, and I hope that Zoran's campaign is a lesson to people of all ideologies on the left about, like, how to run a campaign in the year 2025, not in 2003.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, what I think As a person. I, I don't. Didn't follow. I haven't seen him that much. I saw him on your interview. You know, I'm not inclined to think that a lot of the, you know, the standard, you know, lefty sort of socialist policies that he is, I don't quite know how much he cares about a lot of those, but I guess they're sort of close to his heart, you know, and those aren't going to work. Right. Rent control and, and public supermarket just because the regular supermarkets are gouging everyone. I don't know. I mean, I bet the margins for supermarkets in New York City are not widely, very high. So I don't know. I think a lot of this can work. I'm not happy about the bringing the intifada home or what's the Right.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, globalizing the intifada. You don't think we should have an intifada. It was a terrible answer.

[Bill Kristol]

A terrible answer. And he believes it, which is kind of. It's a good or bad that he believes it as opposed to just sort of saying it because some of his audiences want to hear it. But again, I don't know, is that going to affect what he actually does as mayor? I mean, there's a pretty, you know, he's going to have to get along with the big institutions in New York. He seems like a very interesting person, though, I've got to say. You know, I mean, I was struck also by the not so also he walked 10 miles to Manhattan on Friday afternoon and evening. Yeah, Manhattan's a very long actual island and so it's a long walk and it's very diverse. You know, there's some very poor, a lot of Hispanic neighbors up north and then Harlem, well, parts of Harlem and then Columbia and then the weapon side of it. And he just did the interactions when you. I watched some clips after your interview, I was curious and he's very good. I mean, some of this is just being a good politician, you know, some of this is Bill Clinton and, and sure. AOC and other people who are just talented. Paul's right. And he, and he is. And he's been in politics for a while. Right. I mean, he's already been in the state assembly for four.

[Tim Miller]

Part about being a good politician, though is just being uncomfortable in your own skin and part about being comfortable in your own skin is just being let to be comfortable in your own skin. And I think that, that, that, you know, you can't teach it to some people. Jeb just naturally wasn't that comfortable skin. George W. Was right. So some of it is innate, but some of it is like, I don't know, their example. I think that there are examples of folks who have been made, and I think Kamala is an example, somebody who is more cautious than she needed to be.

[Bill Kristol]

And being a huge underdog helped in a way, because what was here to lose for sure. Why not just true, though.

[Tim Miller]

I also worked for Jon Huntsman as a huge underdog who was very uncomfortable in his own skin. So, you know, it's not, it's not a guarantee.

[Bill Kristol]

So what. I mean, I'll just, I'm gonna. What about the interview? I mean, so I saw the interview. But what, what, what struck you as you dealt with them a little before and after and just kind of the whole process of it. You've done so many of these now. What struck you just as a kind of. In that respect, in the 45 minutes.

[Tim Miller]

I'm going to answer that question. But we do have some breaking news. Andrew Cuomo is conceded to Zoran Mandami. So he is. I mean, there was some discussion.

[Bill Kristol]

It's not waiting for the. That's amazing. It was to see all this pressure. It's gonna be a week till we get the. All the. Some, you know, mail late mail ballots in, and that's when the rank short. They don't even announce the rank choice calculations, you know, that the computers do until a week from now. So he's. He's conceding the actual final vote a week before people even expected to know the result.

[Tim Miller]

You know, wild. So. And I think that also signals to me that he's not going to try to run on one of these goofy lines in the general, but who knows? I don't know. Egomaniacs will do what egomaniacs want to do. My answer to your question about what struck me about Zoron is I want to put the globe ice intifada answer to the side here, because the way in which it was different, I think is telling on all of the other answers. I did the thing with Cam where it was good twink, bad twink, where I was asking the hard questions, he was asking these two ones. On all of the hard questions, you could tell that he had actually thought about what the critique was of the left and had come up with a smart answer to it. Was it an answer like we again, if he wins the mayor, Chevy wins the general, we'll see whether he actually follows up. But on the question of how too much red tape and too much, you know, Regulation and how, you know, ask him about how Mayor Johnson in Chicago, it's like when you bill to get new affordable housing units. He had a point system where it was like if you were a BIPOC you got 11 points but if you were able to save money, you only got three points. And so like all this stuff that just makes everything cost more than it needs to and makes right increases price for everybody. He had a lot of very good thoughts about that. Thoughts about, you know, how they're overpaying consultants. You could tell he's trying to get me, you know, like appeal to me about how he was like, yeah, as a progressive, I want this to be more efficient government. We shouldn't let the Elon owned doge like we should want to be efficient because we want government. You know, on that sort of stuff. He was like, I think more malleable than you see sometimes from folks, DSA type folks. I thought that was interesting. He also was extremely affable and extremely easy to get along with. Is the other thing just to extent that this matters. Like, you know, I have politicians, I learned the most from them in the two minutes before we go on the two minutes after. Right? Because a lot of them are dicks or like very cold. He was like, he was chilling, he was hanging, he was very comfortable and I think that was impressive. The inability to do, to offer the malleable answer on globalized intifada to me was less a sign that like he's an anti Semite or he hates Jews, I'll let other people out. And that's not my fight. To me it was a sign that that was an area where he didn't want to pick a fight with his core base, which was a lot of the folks have been out there protesting when he'd been out there at the protests. And to me that would worry me a little bit about him as the mayor. If he's not going to pick a fight with like the activist groups when it's called for. I mean, sometimes it's not called for, sometimes he'll be aligned with them. That doesn't particularly augur well. Right. Because just if you're going to be a fucking mayor of New York, it's a shit job. You know, there'd be people complaining from your left, from your right, from your center, from your upper. And it just, he did seem, he seemed reluctant to just say something that he thought might upset the core base. And, and to me that was like the red flag of that interview more than. Even though I like I really dislike the phrase globalized intifada, but the substance, substance of it I also disagreed with. But like projecting out to being a mayor, like that was the one part of the interview I thought was kind of a red flag point.

[Bill Kristol]

And I suppose one test or interesting thing will be, what will he do in the next few days? I mean, he'll obviously celebrate with his supporters as he should, and praise them and thank them for their hard work. Will he? This would be in a way both conventional, but I think in this case the right thing to do, which would be, will he go meet with Jewish leader, you know, will he call together a meeting of the Jewish kind of establishments in New York and rabbis, but also business types, all this and the Jewish Federation and sort of say, look, we're going to differ on some things and maybe on foreign policy, I'm mayor, so I'm not going to have really much to do with it. But I don't agree with you guys who are so pro Israel, frankly. And fine, but I'm going to be diligent in protecting equal rights for everyone. Synagogues deserve the same protection as everyone else does and from police. And if Jews are being harassed, they shouldn't be harassed. I mean, I think it'd be important. He could get a lot of credit for saying pretty mild things that are basically everyone should believe, you know, equal protection for, for Jewish students and Jewish Jews and neighborhoods and so forth. He doesn't have to go cater to the most extreme, you know, people, you know, the most extreme people on the Jewish right, so to speak. I think that would help him. I think it would also take the edge off the globalizing, the father thing. And it actually honestly would. Would suggest that maybe he could be a good mayor. I was thinking about the mayor thing. I mean, he's so young, it's just hard to know. I mean, I think a lot of these very progressive mayors. I'll make a weird suggestion. These progressive mayors have not done well, basically. And partly it's because being progressive these days, it's a combination of, in my view, slightly wacky economic policies and so forth and criminal justice policies, but also the identity politics stuff, which you alluded to in the case of Chicago. In a funny way, being a socialist could, I mean, real, quote socialist. But he is a quote socialist. He's like literally, remember, the democratic socialist could free him from some of that. I mean, in a way they should look. So being a socialist means you sort of believe in more equality and you believe in government should do a fair amount to make certain things happen and housing in other areas. But it also doesn't necessarily imply quite the 2020ish. Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

You can free yourself from the shackles of the identity politics.

[Bill Kristol]

Yes. And also some of the other progressive. Just kind of silly that you know all that massive regulatory. That Mitochlacius and everyone correctly complain about.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Bill Kristol]

Wasn't created really by. That's not left. That was created by liberals who were, you know, I'm environmentalists. We can't build anything for eight years here. I'm also. We have to be very careful about knocking over one, you know, I don't know whatever it is, you know, zoning, all that. He could be much more in a funny way and he has sort of reached out. My impression is you follow the campaign more than I to the abundance. You know for sure. Theorists which is the centrist democratic position really which is anti red tape, anti excessive regulation. Let's you know, we built the Empire State building back in 19 whatever that was 31 where the mayor of New York was pretty left wing, kind of called himself maybe even occasionally a socialist. LaGuardia, I think it was LaGuardia. And they built the building in a. At a year and two months or something because they didn't have all these regulations. I mean there's, you know, there's a kind of way in which you. I don't know could he turn that into a forward looking, not, you know, genuinely progressive kind of liberalism as opposed to just catering to a ton of groups and. And putting even more of a foot on the pedal for doing anything, you know, a lot of things for the city. I don't know.

[Tim Miller]

I wouldn't bet on it but maybe I've got Derek Thompson who's. Who wrote the abundance book on the POD tomorrow. And so I'm going to talk to him about it. He also interviewed Zoran and about. And they had talked about this concept called sewer socialism which is kind of like a socialist that's folks focused more on like, you know, fixing the sewer.

[Bill Kristol]

Like making socialism the term. I know this was. I looked this up an hour ago. So you know what? When we started winning I thought I wonder who's the last socialist mayor of a big city in New York. I had this vague memory. Milwaukee was the last one to have had one. They had had several. A couple in the 20th century, interestingly. German socialists and the Frank Zeidler. I think it's Z E I D L E. I think it's Zeidler, maybe Zeidler 1948-1960 was a successful three term socialist mayor of Milwaukee. That's not like ancient times, right? 48 to 60. And. Well, it is for you, but not for me. I remember a lot of it differently. And the Rocky Braves were there. Eddie Matthews, Warren sp Spot in Spain. I mean, it was great. It was a great moment. Anyway, Milwaukee had a pretty good three decade, three 12 years there, as I understand it. A lot of modernization. And the term sewer socialism, I believe comes from his mayoralty, actually this last socialist mayor who was a kind of get things done sort of socialist. And so anyway, just. Sorry.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Bill Kristol]

Yes.

[Tim Miller]

No, no, that's not. That's interesting. This is what you're here for, Bill, to bring historic. What I. My is more of the political history, which is a lot of. I notice we have a lot of Zoron fans who've come in to watch this and some of them, I think wanted us to cry or something. I'm not. I'm not that sad. So I'm happy. Welcome to the Zoron fans. Except for I saw one person with a free Luigi comment down there. This is not the safe space for that. Okay. We do not support murder here at the Bulwark. If you're a free Luigi man, I don't know. The Hasanabi or the Breaking Points feed are available for you, but we can ask about the. But before everybody gets dancing too hard. The example that I came up with was in Buffalo, just up. Up from New York. They had the Democrats that elected. I don't. I don't. I think it might have been a DSA person. I can't remember if it was a valid socialist or not, but a DSA style, a Zoran style candidate. And then everybody kind of circled the wagons around a more centrist kind of independent candidate who ended up winning in the general election. And that could very well happen with Eric Adams. As crazy as that sounds. It could happen with Eric Adams. And I think at this point you'd have to make Zoron a favorite. But the fight's still there. Dan Pfeiffer 100% concurs with me. So I get nervous when I'm on the same page as Dan Pfeiffer, former Obama communications director. But he wrote this. This results a blaringly loud message to those in the Dem establishment who still cling to old politics, recite focus group talking points and are too afraid to say what needs to be said. We have a lot to learn from Zoran Mandami and his campaign to that point. You have not one of the things we wanted to get to check off on this pod is I want you to rant about how fucking weak the Democratic establishment was that they ended up choosing Andrew Cuomo as their horse and that they've been totally incapable of. Of doing a lot of things. And this is just kind of the latest example of it. But why don't you. Why don't you cook on that for a second?

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah. So just to be clear to all our. To all these people who are flop flocking, I guess, to this podcast and high excitement. I wouldn't have voted for. Without a voter for Mount Dummy.

[Tim Miller]

I think they know. I think that's why they're here.

[Bill Kristol]

No, they can be surprised I'm woke these days on this question of the general election and stuff. One way to stop that from happening, I do think, would be to reassure people not by selling out any of his principles or changing who he is, but by reassuring people that he does believe in, obviously in public safety and equal justice, that he's not going to be on some kind of vendetta against, you know, Jewish organizations or Jewish student groups or anything like that, and showing, you know, just kind of what Eddie Mayer would do. Reach out to all the constituencies, including those that didn't support it. He needs to sound a little like George H.W. bush did after the election. Whenever I. I'm gonna be, you know, mayor of all the people or whatever. So I, I still do that. Maybe he's doing it right now or in a few minutes. But having said so, you can blame the voters of New York. You can blame all those, I guess, Gen Z millennial types and all this were voting from the hipsters and the, in the, down the comedy corridor there in the parts of Brooklyn. When I hear the names, I still think laugh.

[Tim Miller]

Andrew Cuomo, during his concession speech said of Zoran, he touched young people. See, this is why this was. This is why you should. This is why the establishment certainly circled their wagons around a sex pest. That's not a great quote, Andrew. Anyway, I'm sorry.

[Bill Kristol]

That's good. Yeah, that's. That'll. Yeah, that'll confirm, I think the 44% or whatever who voted for Zora and the 63% who didn't vote for Cuomo that they, maybe they made the right decision today. Yeah, that's kind of amazing. So he, yeah, so I think, I think he can avert the fate that. That happened to that fellow in Buffalo. I mean, if, If Sauron sounds like a real lunatic, it isn't inconceivable that you could get, I mean you got 44% of the vote the first round. He didn't get 50. And it was a Democratic primary. There are still 20, 25. It's a small Republican Party in New York, but there's some 20%, 25% of the votes. Yeah, it's going to be available to an anti Zoro candidate to start with that. It could be Adams, it could be the Republican candidate, this guy Sliwa with the hats.

[Tim Miller]

It's not going to be the Republican guy. The other problem Adams is having is the deal with Trump. Well, I mean, just as a practical problem, like he cut a deal with Trump to help him on the immigration deportations. And so in New York City, you know, might have moved a little bit more towards Trump this time than it did last time. But you can't run, you can't win as mayor of New York running as a pro Trump person. So I think that's going to be a big issue.

[Bill Kristol]

You can totally demonize the opposite of the opponent, which they'll try to do incidentally. But anyway, it's a lot depends on assuming Zoran is, he seems like a very competent politician, so I'm going to assume he handles this fine and most likely wins Democrat. But so you can blame the voters or you can blame, or the Democratic establishment types can blame themselves. And I guess I am just astonished that they let the alternative become Cuomo. There were other people running who were sort of serious people. They could have all banded behind one of those people. They could have recruited someone in a business type, a Bloomberg type or something if they wanted, or any young man, Richie Torres, they could have made him run. Right. I mean that's the kind of more moderate, young hip candidate. There are plenty of people around and they sort of, I dealt with them a little bit and they were kind of this guy doesn't want to do it and it's very expensive. And yeah, I was with someone, I, I shouldn't even say who. But interesting. Not a well known person, but an interesting 45 year old business person would have been never run. But the kind of person you could imagine really taking off if, if guy got some air time and so forth. And this person talked to people about doing it, but no one was really willing to step up. It looks like Cuomo's gonna run to be expensive, to be, try to be Cuomo and the name is so strong and he's got some of the old guys behind him from the old days. I mean there was this pathetic passivity, you know, this Is New York right? I mean, how much money is there in New York? How many people who are there who should care about the future of New York, who are now going to lament the future of New York? And they gave a little money at the end to the Cuomo super PAC so they could place $25 million on ads, as you said earlier, absurd. And that's what they did. And it's not only Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, they're both from New York City. It's the first time, I don't know, maybe in American history where the speaker. Not the speaker, the minority leader, the majority leader, I'm sorry, the minority leader, you know what I mean? And the minority of the Senate are both from New York City. Maybe not the first time. It's really rare. And they couldn't like get themselves and 20 donors together and say, hey, this, we can't have Cuomo. This 33 year old is a nice kid, but he can't become mayor at this time. And so we, we have to do something else. I don't know if a political party can't. That's what parties do. I mean, what is the case for political parties? It's not that they're full of policy geniuses. It's not that they're, you know, the most upstanding, wonderful civic organizations in the world. It's that in the crunch, they can make some tough decisions and do some, stop the bad things from happening and get some serious people into these races and support them.

[Tim Miller]

The DNC is running a YouTube competitor of ours right now, which is like a Potemkin North Korean style fake news effort. So I think that's what the DNC was up to. Look, here's the. If you just combine all these things, just as this race is a microcosm of the broader problem for the, for the Democratic establishment, they put up a guy way past his prime and everybody circled the wagons around him. They ran a campaign straight out of 1998 with Andrew Cuomo where it's like literally like he ran a fucking Rose Garden campaign for mayor of New York when he hasn't even lived in New York for a while. Yeah, they did not. They refused to have any kind of creative thinking about what the potential options are. And they let a populist upstart candidate just run circles around them. And he absolutely deserved to win just purely based on the campaign mechanics of it. He just totally did. And it just shows how feckless and weak the Democratic establishment is and uncreative to your point about the Cuomo, it's like we're just gonna, we'll settle for it. You know, if you're just, if you put yourself in the head of like the big donors and the big strategists in New York and it's like, oh, well, what are we going to do without Cuomo could have got, could have been beaten. You know, they put up a dynamic center left candidate with name idea with money behind them. They could have run Cuomo into the Zoran Rancom on the ground doing TikToks and doing podcasts and walking down the street, you know, like they could have run Cuomo into the ground earlier. He was a horrible candidate. It was a moral abomination that they got behind him. And I don't know, hopefully it's a wake up call for them and because, man, they got, they got their butt whooped as they were on tonight.

[Bill Kristol]

And it's going to be interesting. I mean, these elections, it's very unpredictable. Often an election is an election. It happens. Sure, the city gets the mayor for four years. It has no great national significance. But it's sort of interesting. The San Francisco election, I think was interesting in a slightly different way because they have a more moderate mayor now, is sort of tough on crime, but also an interesting person. Right. Who ran a somewhat fresh, I think campaign, which I think puts fits into your point. Maybe it wasn't entirely the ideology. It was the kind of, it was a new face, a fresh face for a city. The irony is the city's been badly governed, in my opinion for 12 years at least by lefties after being pretty well governed by Bloomberg. And actually, you know, having Bloomberg's last.

[Tim Miller]

Term was pretty shaky, but okay, fair enough. First two, his first two were pretty good.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah. And Giuliani, for all his problems, his first one was pretty good. So you had a pretty big recovery of New York is all I'm saying. From in the 90s and 2000s, we had a pretty crummy last 10, 15 years. The Bears were Adams, a little more complicated, but certainly de Blasio left and right for I think a kind of, you know, modernized new version of Bloomberg ish type stuff. Right. Which is what? Abundance. All the abundance stuff, which is new and fresh, which I like. I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm not making, you know, it's kind of Bloombergian. Right.

[Tim Miller]

Bloomberg has looked a little less nanny state. Bloomberg had his nanny state.

[Bill Kristol]

Bloomberg had the nanny state stuff with the big, the other diet, the Cokes or the Giant Coke. Cokes.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, Big Gulps.

[Bill Kristol]

You also built a ton of stuff.

[Tim Miller]

To your point about the fact that there could be. And I made this point earlier, but I just want to put. Put a finer point in it. And for all the happy Zoran people in the comments who, you know, are like a moth to a flame to wanting to see the Denver Trumpers react to their Democratic Socialist victory again, an unbelievable victory for a total upstart against all this money and name power and establishment. He's gonna end up with like 43, 44%, 42% or something on the first ballot in New York fucking city. And so, like, the thing, the takeaway here needs to be that, like, that energy that Zoran brought has to be translated into other parts of the country because the, you know, the voting electorate makeup. Where were his best precincts? Bed Stuy. Like the type of people that live in Ridgewood and Bushwick and East Williamsburg and Greenpoint. Some of my pals live in all.

[Bill Kristol]

These places where you hang out. Where do you. Don't you. Last time we were in New York, I was in Williamsburg in some hipster place in Brooklyn.

[Tim Miller]

Wythe in Williamsburg. I love Williamsburg. I love all these places. East Village, like, this is where all my pals are not. The makeup of the voter makeup is going to be different in Grand Rapids and Green Bay and whatever, like Phoenix and the other swing areas. And so the Democrats are going to need to find a way to channel the type of campaign Zoran won and his focus on working class concerns, also with some policy views different that are going to be able to appeal to the middle of the country. And so I just think that's the takeaway. Whether people will learn that lesson or not, I don't know. I think probably the establishment Democrats will take away that it was Andrew Cuomo's fault and there's nothing they could do. And they just took their 20% cut on the ads and move on to the next race. And the Democratic socialists will be like, see, if only we ran Democratic socialists everywhere, we would win in Nebraska. So I'm worried that people will take away the wrong message. But I think the right message is that Zoran did something right on his campaign tactics and his economic message. And maybe you can crib from that for something a little bit different in the rest of the country.

[Bill Kristol]

I mean, it's a big ten party, you got to say, the two gubernatorial nominees this year and states that I was looking that are slightly bigger than New York City, but only slightly bigger states, you know what I mean so they're three almost equivalent electorates you might say our Spanberger and advocates here in Virginia. So I'm luckily not in New York. Born in New York. I love New York but I get to vote for Spanberger and I don't have to grapple with these you don't have to grapple with these problems of of Democratic socialists. My God. And Mikey Cheryl and I don't think.

[Tim Miller]

That I think Mikey Cheryl and Abigail Sandberger are against Intifada just as a.

[Bill Kristol]

General standpoint Sandberger, Cheryl and Zoron. I mean it's an interesting mix of candidates. They were all actually I will say this though. I mean Spanberger maybe is a little she's not really none of them wasn't was a career politician in the sense of 20 years. I mean she's too young to have been and the other two came out of the intelligence agency and Spanberger's place in the military occasion military in Ike Cheryl's so three I'm going to say citizen politicians that's a little pretentious but you know what I mean running pretty authentically those two began in 2018 because they couldn't stand what Trump was doing to the country. I think Zoran's a little more always been thinking about politics it seems like for several years but still he saw the moment and went for it. So I think that's not a bad model. You know let's not nominate Democrats be better off not nominating the guy who served for 27 years in the state legislature worked his way up and his m not not offended anyone. The donor and the donors think he's good because he already has name high name ID because he's run two a few times. Maybe he's run statewide and lost once but it's always good is that once you've run lost once you got the name ID so you can run again. I have to our friend Michael Wood whom you know I've been in touch with who's thinking of running and I think it's likely to actually for the Democratic nomination for Senate in Texas having lost a congressional race is never from Republican four or five years ago I have to ask him he will be he's not anything close to a Democratic socialist. He's an ever Trump Republic ex Republican would consider himself a Harry Truman Scoop Jackson Democrat I'm curious to ask him and I'm going to text him when we get off and he may be watching us is he like appalled by this because oh my God now if he were you know, the Democratic Party has a Democratic social. Might have. There might be a Democratic socialist Democrat as the mayor of the nation's largest city, a city he went to college in, actually nyu. Or is he sort of think, you know what? I'm of course going to write us a, you know, ex military, ex Republican, Harry Truman, Scoop Jackson, Democrat. But in a way this cheers me up, right, that he won. I'm very curious to see what people. Michael and people like Michael.

[Tim Miller]

It is going to take different types of candidates. It's something I keep saying, like the Democrats have a very different coalition. Republicans can run homogeneous candidates. If the Democrats have any hope of getting the Senate back, they're gonna have to win in places like Iowa and Ohio and Texas. That's not going to be people like Zoron. But also if the Democrats want not continue to lose ground with young people, like, they're going to come up with candidates like Zoran, who's able to, who does, you know, resonate and who is more natural and native to, you know, kind of the modes of communication. So it'll be interesting. It's been a good chat. What a night. Who the fuck knows, huh? Zoran Mamdani looks like he's probably the favorite to be the next mayor of New York of an interesting general election with Eric Adams, everybody. Thanks for hanging out. Went longer than I thought. We good, but there's just so much to chew over here. Cam's in the comments. Obviously is not gonna let him on. Okay. There were some people that wanted him to be on. Obviously we're not gonna let him on in this evening, but I appreciate him monitoring us. If you want to be a YouTube plus subscriber, you should do that because I don't know, who knows? Bill Crystal After Dark might be the next thing for YouTube plus subscribers only. So please join us for that. I'll be back for a pod tomorrow with Derek Thompson of much more analysis on this. Appreciate you all for tuning in. We'll see you soon.