Bulwark Takes - Episode 7: Bill and Tim React to New York Mayor Race and ZORAN-MANDANIUM

Release Date: June 25, 2025

In Episode 7 of "Bulwark Takes," hosts Tim Miller and Bill Kristol engage in a comprehensive analysis of the New York City mayoral race, focusing on the surprising advancements of Democratic Socialist candidate Zoran Mandani against the establishment favorite, Andrew Cuomo. This detailed discussion uncovers the dynamics of the race, the effectiveness of campaign strategies, and the broader implications for the Democratic Party.

1. Introduction and Preliminary Insights

The episode begins with a live-stream setup where Tim Miller introduces Bill Kristol, setting the stage for an impromptu discussion on the New York mayoral race. Early indicators suggest a significant shift in voter preference towards Zoran Mandani, a Democratic Socialist candidate, despite his initial low polling numbers.

Notable Quote:

• Tim Miller [00:59]: “All signs point to Zoram Mandani, the Democratic socialist candidates winning the Democratic nomination for mayor in New York.”

2. Polling and Voting Trends

Tim Miller presents the latest polling data, indicating that Mandani is leading Cuomo by approximately 3 to 5% in the first ballot of the ranked-choice voting system. He speculates that Mandani's lead could narrow further as votes are redistributed from other candidates.

Key Points:

• Mandani is currently leading in key areas such as Queens, Staten Island, and Brooklyn.
• Cuomo's support remains strong in orthodox Jewish areas and several affluent neighborhoods.
• The ranked-choice voting system may ultimately solidify Mandani's lead.

Notable Quote:

• Bill Kristol [03:06]: “He was literally 2% in the polls... but now he's leading by six, seven points maybe.”

3. Demographic Support and Geographic Distribution

The discussion delves into the geographic distribution of support for both candidates across New York City's boroughs. Mandani's unexpected success in traditionally conservative and diverse areas underscores a broadening appeal beyond his core Democratic Socialist base.

Key Points:

• Mandani is performing exceptionally well in hipster neighborhoods like Ridgewood, Bushwick, and East Williamsburg.
• Cuomo's strongholds include areas with high concentrations of Orthodox Jews and affluent neighborhoods near Fifth Avenue.

Notable Quote:

• Tim Miller [07:16]: “Zoran is winning in Queens with 90% in... winning Ridgewood plus 69, Bushwick plus 66.”

4. Campaign Strategies: Mandani vs. Cuomo

A significant portion of the conversation contrasts Mandani's innovative campaign tactics with Cuomo's traditional, media-heavy approach. Mandani's use of podcasts, grassroots engagement, and authentic interactions has resonated with voters, particularly younger demographics.

Key Points:

• Mandani's grassroots efforts include engaging with voters through podcasts and direct community interactions.
• Cuomo's campaign relies heavily on TV advertisements, which have failed to sway undecided voters effectively.

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Miller [09:25]: “...shows that you're willing to humble yourself to like, to be a Democratic politician.”
• Bill Kristol [10:24]: “The TV ads did no good and if anything were a contrarian indicator.”

5. The Failure of the Democratic Establishment

Tim Miller and Bill Kristol critique the Democratic establishment for their lack of a viable alternative to Cuomo. They argue that the establishment's passive approach and over-reliance on Cuomo's legacy have allowed Mandani to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction.

Key Points:

• The Democratic establishment failed to support a more moderate or dynamic candidate.
• Heavy financial investments in Cuomo's campaign did not translate into electoral success.
• The establishment's inability to adapt to modern campaign strategies contributed to their downfall.

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Miller [28:53]: “They put up a guy way past his prime... they let a populist upstart candidate just run circles around them.”
• Bill Kristol [33:43]: “You have to make some tough decisions and do some serious people into these races and support them.”

6. Zoran Mandani's Potential Mayoral Tenure

The hosts speculate on Mandani's future as mayor, discussing the challenges he may face in balancing progressive policies with effective governance. They express both optimism and concern regarding his ability to implement his platform while managing the diverse needs of New York City.

Key Points:

• Mandani could face opposition from various constituencies, including activist groups and established business interests.
• His ability to navigate complex governance issues will be crucial to his success as mayor.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill Kristol [28:21]: “What will he do in the next few days?... It doesn't disagree with you guys who are so pro-Israel, frankly.”

7. Broader Implications for the Democratic Party

The election serves as a microcosm for the Democratic Party's broader challenges. The success of a Democratic Socialist candidate highlights the electorate's desire for more authentic and grassroots-driven leadership, prompting a potential reevaluation of campaign strategies nationwide.

Key Points:

• Democratic Party might need to adopt more authentic and grassroots-focused campaign tactics.
• The success of Mandani could inspire similar candidates in other regions, influencing future elections.

Notable Quote:

• Tim Miller [37:56]: “The takeaway here needs to be that... that energy that Zoran brought has to be translated into other parts of the country.”

8. Conclusion and Future Outlook

The episode concludes with reflections on the unpredictable nature of elections and the critical lessons learned from the New York mayoral race. Tim Miller anticipates further analyses, including upcoming interviews that will delve deeper into Mandani's campaign and its implications.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill Kristol [35:28]: “It's going to be interesting. I mean, these elections, it's very unpredictable.”
• Tim Miller [41:53]: “If you just combine all these things... and refocus to something a little bit different in the rest of the country.”

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Tim Miller [00:59]: “All signs point to Zoram Mandani, the Democratic socialist candidates winning the Democratic nomination for mayor in New York.”
• Bill Kristol [03:06]: “He was literally 2% in the polls... but now he's leading by six, seven points maybe.”
• Tim Miller [07:16]: “Zoran is winning in Queens with 90% in... winning Ridgewood plus 69, Bushwick plus 66.”
• Tim Miller [09:25]: “...shows that you're willing to humble yourself to like, to be a Democratic politician.”
• Bill Kristol [10:24]: “The TV ads did no good and if anything were a contrarian indicator.”
• Tim Miller [28:53]: “They put up a guy way past his prime... they let a populist upstart candidate just run circles around them.”
• Bill Kristol [33:43]: “You have to make some tough decisions and do some serious people into these races and support them.”
• Tim Miller [37:56]: “The takeaway here needs to be that... that energy that Zoran brought has to be translated into other parts of the country.”

Key Takeaways

1. Zoran Mandani’s Unexpected Surge: Mandani's rise from 2% polling to leading the Democratic primary underscores a significant shift driven by effective grassroots campaigning and broad demographic appeal.
2. Weaknesses of the Democratic Establishment: The establishment's failure to support a strong, modern campaign against Cuomo reflects deeper strategic deficiencies within the party.
3. Importance of Authentic, Modern Campaign Tactics: Mandani’s use of podcasts, grassroots engagement, and authentic voter interactions contrasts sharply with Cuomo’s traditional media-heavy approach.
4. Implications for Future Democratic Campaigns: The New York mayoral race serves as a model for how Democrats nationwide might adopt more authentic and grassroots-focused strategies to resonate with voters.
5. Potential Challenges Ahead: While Mandani’s victory is significant, his ability to manage the complexities of New York City governance and address diverse constituency needs remains to be seen.

This episode of "Bulwark Takes" offers a rich and engaging exploration of the New York City mayoral race, providing listeners with valuable insights into the evolving landscape of Democratic politics and the effectiveness of modern campaign strategies.