← Bulwark Takes
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- [00:00]
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- [00:09]
Sam Stein
Woo.
- [00:09]
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- [00:44]
Sam Stein
Audio hey guys, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark. I'm joined by John Avlon and Lauren Egan where we are going to be discussing the fallout, I think that's a fair phrase of the New York City mayoral primary that shockingly concluded last night. I had been assuming we'd get a couple days of counts and and some uncertainty, but no. Zoran Mandani cleaned up first ballot, just absolutely wiping the floor. John, as someone, you're the only one here who's run for elected office in the state of New York. So by virtue of that, you get the privilege of going first. Were you, were you as surprised as I was by how quick the night went?
- [01:25]
John Avlon
Yes. And you know, I think a couple things are happening here. First of all, Mondame ran a very energized, inspiring campaign, a lot of youth volunteers, and it's perfectly situated to win a Democratic primary, which he did over Andrew Cuomo, former governor. I think it's as much a rejection of Cuomo, who had vastly more executive experience not only than Mandami, which is not hard because Mandami has barely held a job, let alone a leadership job. That's an important quality in an executive.
- [01:53]
Sam Stein
No, I'm LAUGHING because he's 33 years old.
- [01:56]
John Avlon
It's not which is which is which on the one hand is great. If he was 33 years old and he'd run large organizations before, it would be different. It's just worth noting he's got, you know, a handful years in the assembly and a rejection of Cuomo because of, for all his vast executive experience, an enormous amount of baggage and scandals and but the fact that, you know, Cuomo's team had been leading in the polls until very recently by a wide margin. And the fact that he threw in the towel, you know, the ranked choice voting will still occur. Mondomet cleared 40%, easily did not pass 50, which is what you would typically need and what will presumably happen when the second round is counted. But Cuomo's team thought they needed to be decidedly up in the first round, and they were not. And so what you got today is a lot of folks feeling very good on the Democratic left. This is someone who's a Democratic socialist. That's not a pejorative in this case. That's a self description. You know, winning a Democratic primary. And here's the problem in New York with closed partisan primaries, you know, Mondame cleaned up, but with, you know, 400,000 and change voters in a city with 4 million registered voters. So the vast majority of voters haven't spoken yet. And to me, it just more strongly makes the case for why we need open primaries in New York, which most cities have and New York doesn't.
- [03:20]
Sam Stein
Well, let me just stick with you for a second because it is a primary, there is general election, and there's this kind of unique circumstance here where the sitting mayor, Mayor Adams, will be running as an independent. You have Curtis Slua, who's going to be a Republican. It looks by all accounts at this juncture that Cuomo will not stick around for the general, though he could on the party line. On a different party line, I should say. What's your early read on, you know, Mamdani's ability to translate this primary win? It is an overwhelmingly Democratic city, but, you know, it's not a sure thing, right, that he'll prevent the general.
- [03:57]
John Avlon
It's not a sure thing at all. We will have a more competitive general than normal, and that is healthy. Traditionally, New York, every 25 years or so would elect a reform Republican mayor as a counterweight to sort of the Democratic machine. But with Trump taking over the Republican Party, that's less and less likely in New York City. And I think one of the things you may see is in the next few days, keep an eye for some horse trading. Adams may choose to run as an independent with the Republican endorsement. It's not a foregone conclusion that sleep will stay in and there's time for that change to occur. So that could happen. Cuomo has a separate ballot line called Fight and Deliver. He has said he will be on the ballot in the fall, so take him at his word for now. But it was a pretty decisive rejection among the Democratic base in a city.
- [04:46]
Sam Stein
That I would just say, yeah, his, his statement last night in the, in the abruptness with which he conceded, I think suggests that he might be reconsidering going through the general election.
- [04:56]
John Avlon
It does suggest that. But you know, we are, we're in a immediate aftermath, as you said, aftershock. And so, you know, things will shake out. There's also a guy named Jim Walden who's been running as independent, so that could be a factor. But you know, you, you could see a competitive general election with two to four candidates. Presumably the Working Families Party will be enthusiastically giving their line to Mandami.
- [05:20]
Sam Stein
Yeah. Lauren, what's been fascinating to me because admittedly, like, I'm not as well steeped as John is on the intricacies of New York City mayoral politics, but what's been really fascinating is the, the sort of national consumption of the results here. What's your read, early read on how this is resonating throughout the party?
- [05:41]
Lauren Egan
Yeah, just talking with some more moderate members of the party this morning. I think there's definitely a bit of a panic about last night. And yeah, I'm putting it lightly, you know, pretty delicately. And just from folks I talked to this morning, the concern is I, they really are worried that the party's going to overread this and say, okay, the direction that we should tack in is to the left. That's clearly what's working right now. That's clearly what voters want. And, and their, their whole argument is, no, it's, it's not that. That's the direction we need to go. That's not what we should learn from this moment. But the one thing that we can learn from this is the tactics here clearly worked and that Zoron sort of was really able to break through on social media. And so there are members, moderate members of the party that are like, we should take away that lesson. Absolutely. We need to be better online, we need to be better at breaking through. But that does not mean we need to be, you know, more liberal or adopting sort of that vision of politics.
- [06:40]
Sam Stein
Let me ask you separately, although I guess relatedly here, Lauren, because there are two interpretations here. One is that Mamdani had sort of like a mastery of the poetry of campaigning, doing, you know, these incredibly moving, frankly, campaign events. He'd walk across the whole length of Manhattan. But also he was really fluent in kind of modern day communication. The other thing, the other theory of the case, and these are oversimplified theories, but, you know, that's what we do here, is that he was just incredibly, incredibly, almost monomaniacally focused on cost of living and he just centered his entire. And now he, you know, he was driven into other directions because he has a number of other opinions and policies that are not all together uncontroversial. But he himself was personally focused on cost of living and that that was what compelled and propelled his victory.
- [07:34]
Lauren Egan
So what's your tied together though? Because on the cost of living, I mean, he'd go to like a halal stand and talk about how, you know, this. Right. And so I don't think that they're necessarily separate. But you know, I talked to Conor Lamb this morning who ran against John Federman, and he was saying, you know, I thought I did all the right things when I was running for that Senate primary. I showed up, I took every question, I stayed in the room to the last person left. But like my shit never broke through online. And I got like, Democrats have to figure out how we do that. And I think there's this debate in the party, like, can that be taught or is that innate? You know, Zoron grew up online. You can go see all the videos of him rapping back in the day. So I think there's. Yeah, it's like kind of this existential question where it's like, is that something you can learn or is that just like innate?
- [08:27]
Sam Stein
Well, John, you ran an online publication, you ran for office.
- [08:32]
John Avlon
Yes.
- [08:33]
Sam Stein
Can it be learned?
- [08:34]
John Avlon
Of course it can, but I think it can. I think yes, it can. Obviously it's easier if you've grown up online and you're incredibly comfortable. Like if you look at Zoran's videos, first of all, positive, enthusiastic, you know, definitely TikTok. It'll be interesting to see how algorithms impacted his breaking through versus other candidates. But you know, other candidates are spending a lot of money on TV ads and Zoran was there day after day and kind of running towards the camera, very attention grabbing and positive. So I think you got to separate the style from the substance. The style can be put under sort of a. It's not just digital first, which it absolutely should be. The Democratic consultant class still enjoys getting their vig on traditional TV ads. And so there's been a resistance sometimes to really embracing digital. And I think that's where people live now. And so that is post ripe for disruption. The second piece of it though is authenticity and probably a little bit of charisma that plays into that. Fetterman didn't, especially at that time, fit an ideological box, but he was resolutely authentically himself. And so that's one of the reasons he resonated online. I will say, you know, if you look at the slate in 2025, that's likely to go well, that will go forward as the Democratic nominees. You know, Spanberger and Mikey Sherrill are a very different deal than Zorhan Mandami. And, and New York City is very different than winning a swing state or a swing district. There will be a lot of pushback to Zorhan because, you know, you've seen in Chicago, for example, where you had a very progressive candidate win for mayor whose now approval rating is somewhat set like 7%.
- [10:23]
Sam Stein
Yeah.
- [10:23]
John Avlon
You know, and, and so, so that all needs to be factored in. But, but strategically it's about, it's the authenticity. Stupid. It's affordability. Stupid. Right. 100%. And that's a flow through from both elections, from frankly, Donald Trump to, to what Zorhan was saying. Folks are feeling squeezed, especially in, in blue cities and, and often in blue states. Let me. So that's ounce.
- [10:46]
Sam Stein
I want to pick up on that and I'm going to drop my MC role here and just sort of wax a little bit because I was talking with someone who I, who I do generally respect, who's like a longtime consultant, usually almost exclusively now on sort of the moderate Democratic front. And we were talking a bit about this, you know, what is it that, like, helps you break through in the modern media age? And can someone who is a moderate, who is by definition sort of more inherently cautious do it? Right. And I get, you know, so we're, we're wrestling with Abigail Spamberger, Mickey, Cheryl thing because they're, they're, I think they're sort of more establishment moderate Democrats. But we were talking about like, what is it that like, you know, help propel Fetterman and Gallego and, and I guess in this case Mandani. And his point was. Well, it's heterodoxy. Like, heterodoxy on a couple issues here where you just sort of like, you know, don't take the party line or you say something that's a little bit more, you know, provocative or bombastic. And that in turn gives you this aura of authenticity because you are not taking the party line. That kind of made me think that, yeah, maybe that is sort of, it's very Trumpian in a way. But I'm not comparing them any of these to Trump. But, you know, you just got to kind of come across as a little bit like heterodox at Least on a few issues. And for Mamdani, it was, you know, I'm going to cap rents and I'm going to have state run or city run grocery stores, which, you know, people in the bull work are like, what the. This is crazy. Like, but it, it was heterodox. And then, but I, but. And now I'm going to shut back to this. But I don't think it's just heteroxy. I do think there's something about being fluent in this moment where it's online discourse and I just, I don't know. To me, walking that length in Manhattan.
- [12:32]
John Avlon
Yes.
- [12:33]
Sam Stein
Was like, Lauren, talk, talk about the people. You had a friend who like, yeah, yeah.
- [12:37]
Lauren Egan
But to that point, people have done things like that before running for office. People have walked, you know, but like that really broke through. So I think that makes you.
- [12:46]
Sam Stein
So why did, why did that break through and the others didn't?
- [12:50]
Lauren Egan
Because I think, I mean, that video was like, it was hard to not, you know, get some feelings watching that video. It was really cool.
- [12:56]
Sam Stein
Yeah, it was a good video.
- [12:57]
Lauren Egan
Yeah. I think it was hopeful, it was optimistic. And he just, it sounds like corny to say, but there just is an element of like authenticity and he clearly doesn't feel uncomfortable in front of the camera.
- [13:08]
Sam Stein
Like, if Brad Lander had walked the length of Manhattan. I know.
- [13:12]
Lauren Egan
You know? Yeah. Or like it just. And I do think to this point about like, can it be learned or is it inherent? I do, I think it is a hard thing to learn. And he clearly just like literally grew up in front of a camera and like holding a camera in front of his face and it comes across supernaturally. But yeah, I was in New York for my cousin's wedding over the weekend and I had a friend that I was getting dinner with who had not heard of Zoron at all. And this was a week ago now at this point, and then texted me yesterday saying that she ended up voting for him. And one of the things that she saw was, was the walk across, across Manhattan.
- [13:51]
Sam Stein
Wild.
- [13:51]
Lauren Egan
But that's how politics work, you know.
- [13:53]
Sam Stein
Yeah. Go ahead, John.
- [13:54]
John Avlon
There, there is a late breaking enthusiasm, you know, late breaking elections where the enthusiasm and the optimism and people wanting to be with the winner and a sense of insurgency is very compelling. I'd say it's important to contrast that with Cuomo, who ran a very rose garden strategy. Right. Which is the nicest way to say it. Right. He did not get out there as much. He did not participate in most debates except the two in which he had to do so. That contrast was very clear. It was a stylistic and strategic contrast and it worked decidedly to Mandami's benefit. Madame outworked him in terms of not only being online, but you wouldn't have seen Andrew Cuomo walk the, you know, the length of Manhattan because there was a certain risk averseness. Well, something bad might happen, you know.
- [14:38]
Sam Stein
Yeah.
- [14:39]
John Avlon
So that's important. Just let's drill down on the Gallego point though, because all these are not like the others. There's a temptation right now to sort of draw overly broad lessons. I think the key is authenticity and I would say affordability and how that is expressed digitally. But Gallego is not aoc. Gallego was campaigning with Trump voters. Right. He was playing outside. He was rejecting his consultants advice. He was doing things that were totally authentic to him and therefore heterodox. And that resonated across partisan lines. The heterodoxy, if it's. I'm going to embrace a maximally far left position in an executive office that has enormous power, but also realities of budget, tax based quality of life, you know, you know, safety being a preeminent issue and quality of life being a preeminent issue and fiscal, you know, responsibility being an issue just in any executive role. That's very different. So yes, he, he was heterodox to what is considered sort of centrist Dems who the party tends to nominate, but he was, he was very, he was very orthodox with regards to the DSA positions. He expressed them in a very compelling way. So it's different kinds of heterodoxy, which I suppose you can say that's baked in the cake and the word. But I would not.
- [16:00]
Sam Stein
It's not in the same direction. Yeah, no, no. And Gallego. And Gallego's heterodoxy is, you know, I'm all I am for immigration or border crackdowns. I think that is the heterodoxy. And he's willing to defy and. No, no, I totally get it. But I guess my point is that either way, in either direction there does. It does add some sort of veneer of authenticity that you're not just going to like, play it safe, you know.
- [16:23]
Lauren Egan
And I get that independence too, you know, like, it communicates. Yeah. A level of like, independence and willing to think for yourself that voters, I think clearly want.
- [16:32]
John Avlon
But Lauren, I agree with that, but I just want to underline 1.5 times, you know, there are a million independent voters in New York City, many, many more in the state who did not and could not vote in this closed Democratic primary. If you had ranked choice voting in open primaries, everyone would have been eligible to vote. And it may have had the same result because a lot of independent voters, by the way, particularly in New York, are in communities of color, and people under age 40 might have the exact same result. But the problem is the independent voters are utterly excluded. And when you go, when you have an era, and this may not be an election where this is the case where the Democratic Party primary determines the nominee, that is part of the disconnect that I think Democrats are feeling. They need to reconnect with independents, and this does not do that. So I think the case for open primaries is more important than ever before.
- [17:22]
Sam Stein
Well, let me ask, let me close on this, John. Let's say Zoran called you up tomorrow or even today. Let's, let's expedite this conversation. And he said, all right, you know, I'm the nominee now. I want to win this thing, but I'd also want to, like, stay true to who I am, because that's a big part of my appeal. What should I do? What are my next moves? Advise me, John, what would you say to him?
- [17:49]
John Avlon
I would say show that you're not going to, while you're dealing with equality, affordability, which is incredibly important, show that you're not going to have a decrease in crime and decrease in quality of life on a street by street basis, which is an ideological issue for some Democratic Democrats. I'd say show that. Show how your plans won't bankrupt the city or decimate the tax base. And these are difficult circles to square, right?
- [18:17]
Sam Stein
The crime one is a little bit, a little bit easier. The crime one's a little bit easier, right? Like in theory, he's a little bit easier.
- [18:23]
John Avlon
Look, I mean, Bill de Blasio, who was not a great mayor by most accounts, did a couple of things. What he did early on was he reappointed Bill Bratton, right? That sent a message that, look, he may be progressive on a lot of issues, but he wasn't going to let crime slide. This is the, you know, the, one of the inventors of broken Windows theory. That was a very smart move and it bought him a lot of time, but he was also inheriting a city from Mike Bloomberg. And so what happens is there's a delayed reaction very often. But by de Blasio's second term, lack of enforcement on quality of life crimes by Bratton's successors ended up, you know, compounded by Covid, ended up creating a lot of people who were pissed off and frustrated about declining quality of life. So you know, it, it's about quality of life. It's also about how you not decimate the, the, the, the, the fiscal base of the city. And it's more precarious than people think.
- [19:16]
Sam Stein
Yeah. All right, well, we'll be watching. And Lauren, I'm excited to see your piece which is coming out, uh, today. Assuming this video goes up for the opposition newsletter on what kind of lessons moderate Democrats are going to be taking from this. Thank you guys for watching us on YouTube. Appreciate your support as always. Do subscribe to the feed. We appreciate that even more than your support and we'll be talking to you soon. Take care, guys.
- [19:44]
Advertiser
Get more than you expect with the five dollar meal deal. Part of new McValue 5 gets you a McDouble or Mc McChicken and a small fry and a small drink and a four piece McNuggets.
- [19:52]
Sam Stein
Woo.
- [19:53]
Advertiser
New McValue. At McDonald's. Prices of participation may vary. McDouble meal, $6 in some markets for limited time only.
- [19:59]
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