Trump’s Midterm Nightmare Is Starting Early - Bulwark Takes

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[00:02]
Tim Miller
Bubba Wallace here from 2311 Racing. You know what's slower than a pace car waiting at the car wash? That's when I fire up Chumba Casino. It turns those slow minutes into fast fun. With new games every week, you'll never get bored.
[00:17]
Sponsor Voice
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[00:20]
Tim Miller
Play now@chumbacasino.com. let's Chumba. Sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW Group. Void where prohibited by law 21 terms and conditions apply. Hey everybody, it's Tim Miller from the Bulwark. I was just on with Nicole Wallace on Deadline White House and my friend Jen Palmieri. We were in the circus together. It was good to see her. She has a new podcast over at Crooked Media. We were discussing Donald Trump's flagging popularity across even his, like maybe not his core base, but across places in red America. Jen's been traveling the south, talking to people in the south, talking to Republicans in Texas about why they're interested in James Talarico voting for James Tall Rico, that she's talking to evangelical moms, white evangelical moms, Republican in Texas who are planning to vote for Talarico. And you know, we're kind of analyzing like what is happening, like why, you know, the laws of political gravity are applying to Trump now when they haven't so many times before. And you know, we get into some of that as fatigue. Paul Murray reminded us that it would be by, by the time it's over, it'd be 13 years of Trump. I mean, they talk about the seven year itch in a marriage. Thirteen years is. That's a long time to have to have this in our life and our brains having to think about it. And you know, even his fans are getting beaten down by a little bit of it. I referenced this Sean Ryan clip actually. Why don't we just put that in right here so you guys can see it.
[01:47]
Jen Palmieri
I just don't see any positivity coming out of this administration. It seems very self serving. I have a list of printed I could go through, but what was the last one? He made it so he had Tom Blanche do the dirty work so that him or anybody in his family could ever be audited by the IRS. What the fuck is that? The drone company? The 400 million dollar jet from Qatar.
[02:13]
Nicole Wallace
Yep.
[02:14]
Jen Palmieri
The. What is it? The executives club. You know about that?
[02:17]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah, yeah, that they started in dc.
[02:21]
Jen Palmieri
You don't hear about any of this shit.
[02:23]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah.
[02:23]
Jen Palmieri
Does shit look like he's serving the fucking people? No, so you're gonna serve that? Or are you gonna speak out against it and let everybody know what the fuck is happening?
[02:35]
Nicole Wallace
You think he'd be better off?
[02:36]
Jen Palmieri
Fox News sure as fuck isn't reporting any of this shit.
[02:39]
Nicole Wallace
None of it.
[02:40]
Tim Miller
That's a little teaser. We get into it a lot more. Look at the poll numbers. Discuss what Democrats need to do to take advantage of this. Hope you enjoy it. Subscribe to the feed, tell your friends. Give us a like comment. What old John McCain used to say. Comments, questions, insults. Right down there. I'll take them all, and we'll be seeing you guys soon.
[03:00]
Sponsor Voice
This message is sponsored by zocdoc. So if you're anything like me, going to the doctor is one of those things that's incredibly easy to put off and then put off again. And then when you're just really busy with work and parenting and all that stuff, you put it off one more time. You'll tell yourself you can call tomorrow. And then. And then tomorrow turns into next week. By the time you finally pick up the phone, the first available appointment is months away. It's one of those annoying tasks that somehow always falls to the very bottom of the list. That's one reason I'm glad that today's video is sponsored by zocdoc. I don't want you dealing with the same frustration when it comes to your health. Instead of spending time calling office after office after office or just wondering who's actually covered by your insurance, ZocDoc makes the whole process much easier. ZOCDOC lets you search and compare local and in network doctors. You can see actual appointment openings and instantly book a visit online. And appointments often happen within a 24 to 72 hour window with some same day availability. Everyone who has ever tried to book a doctor knows that is downright impossible sometimes and incredibly frustrating to have to wait so long to go see a doctor. On top of that, ZOC talk is completely free to use your health matters and taking care of yourself shouldn't be complicated. Find and book the right doctor with Zocdoc. Head to zocdoc.com bulwarktakes to get started and check the appointment off your to do list. That's z o c-o c.com bulwarktakes
[04:25]
Nicole Wallace
New York Times put these puts these numbers in historical perspective writing this quote the latest surveys indicate that Trump is now all but the most unpopular second term president at this stage of their tenure in the history of polling going back to the 1940s. The only exception is not one that would give Trump much solace. Richard Nixon had even less public support at this stage in his second term, but at that point, he was days away from resigning over the Watergate scandal. With just under three months to go before November's midterms and Trump's polling deep underwater, it could and should spell disaster for Republicans. As the Times points out, quote, the worry for Republicans is not just that voters disapprove of Donald Trump's handling of the presidency, but that they strongly disapprove, suggesting that they would be more motivated than Trump loyalists to show up this fall. And there's another notable marker. According to the latest findings from Reuters Ipsos, Americans pick Democrats over Republicans as better stewards of the economy. For the first time in nearly a decade, the economy, the single issue Donald Trump won the 2024 election by campaigning on, is now viewed by the American people as something that would be better handled if Democrats were in charge. That's where we begin the hour. Some of our favorite experts and friends. Political analysts. Host of the Bulwark podcast, Tim Miller makes his triumphant return from vacation. We missed you. Jim Palmeri is also back with us. We're so happy to see you. She's the host of Crooked Media's Long Play podcast. She was a White House communications director under President Obama. So nice to see both of you. So, Tim, while you were gone, Donald Trump actually got more. A little bit crazier and a lot more unpopular. Your thoughts about where he stands in the polls?
[06:16]
Tim Miller
I don't know if he could have gotten any crazier, Nicole, but additional crazy things. Yeah, so we'll quibble. I just want to say I'm happy to see Jen Palmieri, my former pal, in the circus and elsewhere. It's been a minute since I've seen her. Look, he is. He's not doing anything to make himself more popular. And this thing, sometimes, like, I feel like you analyze Trump and he gets analyzed separately from other politicians because he has broken a lot of, like, typical political, obviously, norms and traditions, and he's done things that nobody else could do and survived it. And so, you know, people, like, kind of grade him on this weird, like, separate curve, you know, where he has a press conference and they talk about it. And you know, where if any other politician had that press conference, they would say, like, this person needs to resign soon or, like, this person is going to lose their mind. Like, Trump gets graded differently. But, like, one thing that is just the same is that if people don't feel like their needs are being Met like that their concerns are being addressed, then, like, they're gonna look for other options. And Donald Trump, like, say what you want about him in the first term and even in the campaigns, like, he was always crazy and sometimes he'd be, like, brought back by his advisors, but he always at least, like, pretended to care about people, right? And, like, pretended to care about what the MAGA base wanted. And he was always somewhat in touch with the MAGA base because he's having these rallies and hearing their response, and he just has totally lost that between the war economy, prices, you know, we're putting gold everywhere in the capital now, and he doesn't even seem to have a plan. Like, there's no message, there's no kind of idea for what he's going to do to address prices to end the war. And so I do think that's creating a big opportunity for Democrats. And I'm not that surprised that his numbers have slipped to where they are, unfortunately, so polarized. They probably need to go even lower because of the. And we'll talk about this because of the kind of states Democrats need to win to win the Senate, some of the states Jen's covering on that podcast. But, you know, our Stage one by so much. But, you know, I think that it's not looking good, Tim.
[08:17]
Nicole Wallace
The numbers don't suggest that the next two plus years are going to be anything resembling, I want to say, a picnic, but Trump's never been to a picnic like a carriage ride for Donald Trump. In terms of who voters blame for the price at the pump, 72% blame Donald Trump. Some are a whole lot. I mean, that's basically everybody, except, I don't know, the people in his own motorcade. There is no escaping his culpability in the affordability crisis.
[08:47]
Tim Miller
No, that's nothing. He always used to be good at blaming other people, pointing the finger, not taking responsibility. But he got into this Iran war, which was stupid from the start, obviously stupid. It was a betrayal of his voters. That's obviously the reason why gas prices were up. And if you look at, like, Covid, for example, he's able to blame a million people. You can blame the Chinese, you can blame Fauci, you can blame Democrat. People could say, well, who could have predicted this virus would come? Like, this was not that. It was not some exogenous event. Right. It was like he started this war after promising that he wouldn't, and now you're paying more. So obviously people are gonna blame him. And I think the people being beaten down in the 13 years that Jen was talking about. I was watching a clip of this podcast. This guy, Sean Ryan, he's a very popular military kind of bro podcast, and he seemed so beaten down. I've never seen a podcaster so beaten down. Like, he had gotten on board with Trump. He was excited about it. And, like, the energy on this podcast where he's like, I think he's talking with Tucker. It was just like, I can't believe it. Like, who am I going to have to. Have to hope for anymore? Right? I do think a lot of his, even his excited supporters are now just like, how can I get excited about this anymore? Like, it's hard for me to, like, get up, you know, if you're being paid millions on FOX to do it, you can do it. But for a lot of other people, it's like, how can I get up the. Just the energy in the morning to be like, I'm really excited about the triumphal arc, you know, I'm, like, really excited that we're fighting with Jeanine Pirro about, you know, the Reflecting Pool. Like, he's not giving them anything to be excited about.
[10:23]
Nicole Wallace
Your point, I think about Sean Ryan. Like, polls don't ask the question, but we talked incessantly about the manosphere. Like, I wonder if it's time to start asking questions of people like Sean Ryan. Like, do you feel like less of a man because you fell for Trump's bullshit? I mean, he's played his voters fools. He is now, as you point out, literally tacking gold things to the office. And that is a day's work for him. And then in the middle of the night, he'll get up again and work for whatever five minutes it takes him to type out something insane on Truth Social and then charge firms for it to make money based on the policy announcements. The whole thing is a scam. The 80% of voters who think the economy is staying as bad as it is are getting worse. Include a whole lot of people that were fooled and duped into voting for him more than once.
[11:09]
Tim Miller
No doubt. And I don't know if any of them would admit that they feel like less of a man. Maybe some of the comedians would, but I do think that they don't. Like, they don't have the incentive, right? Like, these, the new people on Trump's coalition, right? Like, forget the people who are kind of MAGA propagandists in that media. Like, they're paid to just spin his BS and they'll keep doing it up until the last dog dies, right? Some of these other guys that came on board, they thought that they were coming on board for a project. They're mad about whatever. They're mad about the wars, they're mad about COVID they're mad about Woke. And they're like, okay, well this guy says he's going to deal with all this stuff and then not only does he not, but he kind of rubs it in their face. He covers up the Epstein files, he gets into a stupid Iran war, he enriches himself. And so I do think they don't feel like they have to carry his water anymore. And I do think that's a big change. My one caution to kind of Hopium on this is just they do still have. Trump's corruption has done one good thing for him besides his family's intergenerational wealth is that like he's been shaking down all these companies for money in exchange for, you know, tariff write offs or, you know, regulation rulings. And so their PACs have like so much unimaginable amounts of money and Elon's putting unimaginable amounts of money again in, during the midterms. And so if you look at, you know, whatever Jen mentioned Mississippi, a 46% approval, you know, in probably not Mississippi, but like in a state like Iowa or Texas or whatever, like where, where the Democrats need to win the Senate seat, there's going to be just wall to wall ads trying to vilify the Democrats because they can't say they can't make Trump look good. Right. But just try to at least vilify the Democrats enough to get people to go home to the Republican or to not, not flip, etc. And you know, I do think that that is the big challenge ahead for Democrats is like how do you counter that? Because that wave is coming and they're going to have to go win in these places where Trump has won by 10, 11, 12 points.
[13:09]
Nicole Wallace
Tim, I think we've both been on campaigns where we had more money and didn't prevail and we've been on campaigns where we were, where we were against the side. Yes.
[13:19]
Tim Miller
Not me, not the Democratic.
[13:21]
Sponsor Voice
Yeah.
[13:22]
Nicole Wallace
What is your sense of the role that money will play? Because I think that could be sort of a head fake. Right. And I think you look at, you look at other. I mean, this is a nationalized midterm election no matter what anyone says. And it doesn't override the strengths or weaknesses of individual candidates. But it is more conducive, I guess, to a wave.
[13:45]
Tim Miller
Look, I don't Think right there is a kind of one size fits all answer to this question. I think that in this Michigan primary tonight, Haley Stevens had more money. And I think a lot of ways that's going to end up having backfired on her. A lot of people are kind of unhappy with the special interest manipulation as they saw of the race. We'll see. And you know, like I was on Jeb's campaign, we had more money that didn't go well. So like money doesn't save everything. And I think that in a couple of those states that Jen mentioned, particularly Georgia and North Carolina, like Ossoff and Cooper are running such strong campaigns and swingy states and Trump's so unpopular that the money probably doesn't matter to me. I think the area to worry is for the Democrats to really take the Senate. They got to win Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, some combination of those four. And you know, in those states it's just going to be really incumbent on the candidates to distinguish themselves from whatever boogeyman brand the Republicans put out about them on tv. And Republicans have a lot of money to talk to Republican voters and say hey, you might not be, might not be thrilled about how things are going, but this person is scary for whatever reason. And I think those are going to be the places where that money could matter and where it's just, it's as Jen said, the Democrats have to have run really strong campaigns. There's going to be a smaller margin for error.
[15:03]
Nicole Wallace
There are growing calls for Republican Congressman Max Miller to resign amid allegations that he abused his ex wife and 2 year old daughter. Axios is reporting that Donald Trump spoke with Max Miller, informed him that quote, things aren't looking good and then repeatedly said his reelection would be tough. That is according to three sources. Miller has denied all allegations that of abuse and has sued his ex wife Emily Moreno for defamation. And in an interview this hour, Jake Tapper on cnn, he vowed to stay in the race. Tim, this shouldn't be a political question and I guess I'm old enough to remember when it wasn't. But right now these are the Republicans who have called for Miller's resignation based on what is alleged and what is in the public record. Bernie Moreno, his ex father in law, Shelley Moore. Capito, Lisa Murkowski, Roger Marshall, Jim Justice, Rick Scott and Cynthia Loomis. Max Miller for his part says he's staying in and that Donald Trump is standing by him. Of course he is. Your thoughts on why not a single House Republican has come out and called for his resignation?
[16:13]
Tim Miller
Look, Politics. They have a very small majority in the House and it's been made smaller by resignations by Marjorie Taylor Greene and others over the course of the last year and a half. So it's pure politics. It's inexcusable. I understand, you know, Senator Moreno in his case, going through a personal situation. Hard for me to judge what's happening behind the scenes. But, like, Max Miller has other allegations. The former spokesperson for Donald Trump, Stephanie Grisham, alleged that he domestically abused her. So that seems like a pretty credible allegation to me, seeing as she was a spokesperson for the Republican Party. That's not some left wing activist going after him that you should discredit that. But, you know, so if you're a Republican and you're doing this on the merits and you're. And you don't believe that someone that is credibly accused by two women of domestic abuse should be in Congress, then, like, they probably should have been speaking out about Max Miller a long time ago. We've been covering Max Miller's allegations for a while at the Bulwark. So these guys don't care. They wanted to get on their high horse about Graham Platner. All these people, Reince Priebus, my former boss, Kevin McCarthy, Kellyanne Conway, were all just condescending going on FOX about how the Democrats are protecting this man. And, you know, plenty of potential criticism for Democrats about how they handled the Platner situation. But like, once the credible, the most credible allegation of physical abuse came out, everyone said that he should resign, up to and including his closest political allies. And for Mike Johnson to be silent right now, there's no personal situation there. He's doing it simply to protect his House majority for what, for three months? And they're not even passing anything. So it's like political power for political power sake. Not even actually for any ideological end policy ends. So it's really shameful. We've seen it time and again. There are other Republicans in the House, I should mention, that have allegations. Corey Mills, Chuck Edwards, and they're nowhere to be seen.

Summary6 min read

Bulwark Takes: “Trump’s Midterm Nightmare Is Starting Early”

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Date: August 5, 2026
Host: The Bulwark team (Tim Miller, Nicole Wallace, Jen Palmieri)
Main Theme:
This episode dives into Donald Trump’s rapidly sinking popularity as midterm elections approach, the unusual fatigue setting in across his supporters and Republican leadership, and how this dynamic is shaping electoral prospects for both parties. The panel scrutinizes polling data, the crumbling MAGA coalition, the outsized impact of money in politics, and the party’s unwillingness to address scandals within its own ranks.

Episode Overview

Purpose: To analyze the growing discontent with Trump in traditionally safe Republican areas, discuss Democratic opportunities, and candidly confront intra-party scandals and the political cynicism around them.
Tone: Engaged, blunt, and sometimes exasperated—with pointed language about Trump, the Republican Party, and the current state of American politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump Fatigue Setting In

(00:20 – 01:47)

Trump’s decline isn’t limited to swing voters; Jen Palmieri details conversations with evangelical Republican moms in Texas who are considering Democratic candidate James Talarico:

“She’s talking to evangelical moms, white evangelical moms, Republican in Texas who are planning to vote for Talarico.” (Tim Miller, 00:37)
Thirteen years of Trump have taken a toll on red America. Tim characterizes the phenomenon as a “seven year itch” now more than a decade long:

“...by the time it’s over, it’d be 13 years of Trump... even his fans are getting beaten down by a little bit of it.” (Tim Miller, 00:50)

2. Venom Within the GOP: Corruption & Disillusionment

(01:47 – 02:39)

Jen Palmieri and Nicole Wallace highlight GOP infighting and scandal, including Trump shielding himself and associates from IRS scrutiny, the “drone company,” and a $400M jet from Qatar:

“Does shit look like he’s serving the fucking people? No, so you’re gonna serve that? Or are you gonna speak out against it?” (Jen Palmieri, 02:23) “Fox News sure as fuck isn’t reporting any of this shit.” (Jen Palmieri, 02:36)

3. The Historic Unpopularity of Trump

(04:25 – 06:15)

Nicole Wallace places Trump’s disapproval into historical context:

“...Trump is now all but the most unpopular second term president at this stage of their tenure in the history of polling going back to the 1940s. The only exception... Richard Nixon had even less public support at this stage, but...he was days away from resigning over the Watergate scandal.” (Nicole Wallace, 04:25)
Voters now prefer Democrats on the economy for the first time in nearly a decade.

“Americans pick Democrats over Republicans as better stewards of the economy. For the first time in nearly a decade...” (Nicole Wallace, 04:25)

4. Political Gravity & Trump’s Lost Touch

(06:15 – 08:47)

Trump no longer appears to care, even for MAGA priorities:

“He is...not doing anything to make himself more popular...Even in the campaigns, he was always somewhat in touch with the MAGA base...He just has totally lost that.” (Tim Miller, 06:44)
War with Iran and inflation are directly tied to Trump in voters’ minds:
“...he started this war after promising that he wouldn’t, and now you’re paying more. So obviously people are gonna blame him.” (Tim Miller, 08:56)

5. Beaten-Down MAGA—Anecdotes & Symbolism

(08:47 – 11:08)

Even conservative influencers feel a loss of momentum:

“I was watching...Sean Ryan...he seemed so beaten down...He was excited about [Trump]...the energy on this podcast [was] I can’t believe it...Who am I going to have to hope for anymore?” (Tim Miller, 09:19)
The scam is palpable:

“He is now, as you point out, literally tacking gold things to the office...The whole thing is a scam.” (Nicole Wallace, 10:22)

6. PAC Money vs. Political Will

(11:08 – 15:02)

Trump’s only lifeline: monstrous PAC money and big donors like Elon Musk.

“Trump’s corruption has done one good thing for him...he’s been shaking down all these companies...so their PACs have like so much unimaginable amounts of money and Elon’s putting unimaginable amounts of money again in, during the midterms.” (Tim Miller, 11:43)
The danger for Dems isn’t everywhere—it’s in states like Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska:

“For the Democrats to really take the Senate, they got to win Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, some combination of those four...” (Tim Miller, 14:22)
Money isn’t everything:

“I was on Jeb’s campaign, we had more money, that didn’t go well. So like money doesn’t save everything.” (Tim Miller, 14:01)

7. Scandal Paralysis: Max Miller Abuse Allegations

(15:02 – 17:32)

New allegations against Rep. Max Miller spark GOP silence for purely political reasons:

“They have a very small majority in the House and it’s been made smaller by resignations...So it’s pure politics. It’s inexcusable.” (Tim Miller, 16:15)
Charges of hypocrisy:

“If you’re a Republican and you don’t believe that someone that is credibly accused by two women of domestic abuse should be in Congress...they probably should have been speaking out about Max Miller a long time ago. We’ve been covering Max Miller’s allegations for a while at the Bulwark. So these guys don’t care.” (Tim Miller, 16:37) “For Mike Johnson to be silent right now, there’s no personal situation there. He’s doing it simply to protect his House majority for what, for three months? And they’re not even passing anything. So it’s like political power for political power sake.” (Tim Miller, 17:01)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Trump’s alienation of even his base:

“Even his fans are getting beaten down by a little bit of it.” (Tim Miller, 00:50)
On Trump scandals no one is talking about:

“Does shit look like he’s serving the fucking people? No.” (Jen Palmieri, 02:23)
Historical perspective on Trump’s unpopularity:

“[Trump is] all but the most unpopular second term president... The only exception...Richard Nixon...days away from resigning over Watergate...” (Nicole Wallace, 04:25)
On Trump’s war and the economy:

“He started this war after promising that he wouldn’t, and now you’re paying more. So obviously people are gonna blame him.” (Tim Miller, 08:56)
On the “scam” of Trump’s presidency:

“He is now, as you point out, literally tacking gold things to the office. And that is a day’s work for him...The whole thing is a scam.” (Nicole Wallace, 10:22)
On Republican double standards regarding abuse allegations:

“For Mike Johnson to be silent right now, ...he’s doing it simply to protect his House majority...So it’s like political power for political power sake. Not even actually for any ideological end policy ends. So it’s really shameful. We’ve seen it time and again.” (Tim Miller, 17:01)

Timestamps of Important Segments

00:20 – 01:47: Tim Miller introduces the theme of Trump fatigue and GOP disarray; Jen Palmieri’s reporting from Texas.
01:47 – 02:39: Jen Palmieri and Nicole Wallace vent about Trump’s corruption & lack of coverage.
04:25 – 06:15: Nicole Wallace recites historic polling numbers; Trump is historically unpopular.
06:15 – 08:47: Discussion on Trump’s detachment and his accountability for the Iran war and inflation.
08:47 – 11:08: Effects on the MAGA cohort, illustrated by the demoralized Sean Ryan podcast/clip.
11:08 – 15:02: How money—especially Trump’s PACs—could influence battleground races; why it may not be enough in some places.
15:02 – 17:32: New Max Miller abuse allegations—Republican leaders’ silence, the calculus of power, and accusations of hypocrisy.

Takeaways

Trump’s base is finally showing signs of real fatigue and disillusionment, and that’s reshaping the “red wall.”
The Democrat’s greatest opportunity is in Trump’s inability to offer hope or leadership on the issues his base cares about most.
Trump’s historic unpopularity parallels Nixon pre-resignation; for the first time in years, voters trust Democrats more on the economy.
Yet, Republican PACs and billionaire donors are still a formidable barrier, especially in deep red and battleground Senate states.
Scandal management in the GOP remains rooted in cynical political calculation, further eroding trust—even among their own.

For updates and more biting analysis, follow Bulwark Takes across platforms.

Loading summary

Transcript28 lines

[00:02]
Tim Miller
Bubba Wallace here from 2311 Racing. You know what's slower than a pace car waiting at the car wash? That's when I fire up Chumba Casino. It turns those slow minutes into fast fun. With new games every week, you'll never get bored.
[00:17]
Sponsor Voice
Next time you're stuck in the slow lane, speed up with Chumba.
[00:20]
Tim Miller
Play now@chumbacasino.com. let's Chumba. Sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW Group. Void where prohibited by law 21 terms and conditions apply. Hey everybody, it's Tim Miller from the Bulwark. I was just on with Nicole Wallace on Deadline White House and my friend Jen Palmieri. We were in the circus together. It was good to see her. She has a new podcast over at Crooked Media. We were discussing Donald Trump's flagging popularity across even his, like maybe not his core base, but across places in red America. Jen's been traveling the south, talking to people in the south, talking to Republicans in Texas about why they're interested in James Talarico voting for James Tall Rico, that she's talking to evangelical moms, white evangelical moms, Republican in Texas who are planning to vote for Talarico. And you know, we're kind of analyzing like what is happening, like why, you know, the laws of political gravity are applying to Trump now when they haven't so many times before. And you know, we get into some of that as fatigue. Paul Murray reminded us that it would be by, by the time it's over, it'd be 13 years of Trump. I mean, they talk about the seven year itch in a marriage. Thirteen years is. That's a long time to have to have this in our life and our brains having to think about it. And you know, even his fans are getting beaten down by a little bit of it. I referenced this Sean Ryan clip actually. Why don't we just put that in right here so you guys can see it.
[01:47]
Jen Palmieri
I just don't see any positivity coming out of this administration. It seems very self serving. I have a list of printed I could go through, but what was the last one? He made it so he had Tom Blanche do the dirty work so that him or anybody in his family could ever be audited by the IRS. What the fuck is that? The drone company? The 400 million dollar jet from Qatar.
[02:13]
Nicole Wallace
Yep.
[02:14]
Jen Palmieri
The. What is it? The executives club. You know about that?
[02:17]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah, yeah, that they started in dc.
[02:21]
Jen Palmieri
You don't hear about any of this shit.
[02:23]
Nicole Wallace
Yeah.
[02:23]
Jen Palmieri
Does shit look like he's serving the fucking people? No, so you're gonna serve that? Or are you gonna speak out against it and let everybody know what the fuck is happening?
[02:35]
Nicole Wallace
You think he'd be better off?
[02:36]
Jen Palmieri
Fox News sure as fuck isn't reporting any of this shit.
[02:39]
Nicole Wallace
None of it.
[02:40]
Tim Miller
That's a little teaser. We get into it a lot more. Look at the poll numbers. Discuss what Democrats need to do to take advantage of this. Hope you enjoy it. Subscribe to the feed, tell your friends. Give us a like comment. What old John McCain used to say. Comments, questions, insults. Right down there. I'll take them all, and we'll be seeing you guys soon.
[03:00]
Sponsor Voice
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[04:25]
Nicole Wallace
New York Times put these puts these numbers in historical perspective writing this quote the latest surveys indicate that Trump is now all but the most unpopular second term president at this stage of their tenure in the history of polling going back to the 1940s. The only exception is not one that would give Trump much solace. Richard Nixon had even less public support at this stage in his second term, but at that point, he was days away from resigning over the Watergate scandal. With just under three months to go before November's midterms and Trump's polling deep underwater, it could and should spell disaster for Republicans. As the Times points out, quote, the worry for Republicans is not just that voters disapprove of Donald Trump's handling of the presidency, but that they strongly disapprove, suggesting that they would be more motivated than Trump loyalists to show up this fall. And there's another notable marker. According to the latest findings from Reuters Ipsos, Americans pick Democrats over Republicans as better stewards of the economy. For the first time in nearly a decade, the economy, the single issue Donald Trump won the 2024 election by campaigning on, is now viewed by the American people as something that would be better handled if Democrats were in charge. That's where we begin the hour. Some of our favorite experts and friends. Political analysts. Host of the Bulwark podcast, Tim Miller makes his triumphant return from vacation. We missed you. Jim Palmeri is also back with us. We're so happy to see you. She's the host of Crooked Media's Long Play podcast. She was a White House communications director under President Obama. So nice to see both of you. So, Tim, while you were gone, Donald Trump actually got more. A little bit crazier and a lot more unpopular. Your thoughts about where he stands in the polls?
[06:16]
Tim Miller
I don't know if he could have gotten any crazier, Nicole, but additional crazy things. Yeah, so we'll quibble. I just want to say I'm happy to see Jen Palmieri, my former pal, in the circus and elsewhere. It's been a minute since I've seen her. Look, he is. He's not doing anything to make himself more popular. And this thing, sometimes, like, I feel like you analyze Trump and he gets analyzed separately from other politicians because he has broken a lot of, like, typical political, obviously, norms and traditions, and he's done things that nobody else could do and survived it. And so, you know, people, like, kind of grade him on this weird, like, separate curve, you know, where he has a press conference and they talk about it. And you know, where if any other politician had that press conference, they would say, like, this person needs to resign soon or, like, this person is going to lose their mind. Like, Trump gets graded differently. But, like, one thing that is just the same is that if people don't feel like their needs are being Met like that their concerns are being addressed, then, like, they're gonna look for other options. And Donald Trump, like, say what you want about him in the first term and even in the campaigns, like, he was always crazy and sometimes he'd be, like, brought back by his advisors, but he always at least, like, pretended to care about people, right? And, like, pretended to care about what the MAGA base wanted. And he was always somewhat in touch with the MAGA base because he's having these rallies and hearing their response, and he just has totally lost that between the war economy, prices, you know, we're putting gold everywhere in the capital now, and he doesn't even seem to have a plan. Like, there's no message, there's no kind of idea for what he's going to do to address prices to end the war. And so I do think that's creating a big opportunity for Democrats. And I'm not that surprised that his numbers have slipped to where they are, unfortunately, so polarized. They probably need to go even lower because of the. And we'll talk about this because of the kind of states Democrats need to win to win the Senate, some of the states Jen's covering on that podcast. But, you know, our Stage one by so much. But, you know, I think that it's not looking good, Tim.
[08:17]
Nicole Wallace
The numbers don't suggest that the next two plus years are going to be anything resembling, I want to say, a picnic, but Trump's never been to a picnic like a carriage ride for Donald Trump. In terms of who voters blame for the price at the pump, 72% blame Donald Trump. Some are a whole lot. I mean, that's basically everybody, except, I don't know, the people in his own motorcade. There is no escaping his culpability in the affordability crisis.
[08:47]
Tim Miller
No, that's nothing. He always used to be good at blaming other people, pointing the finger, not taking responsibility. But he got into this Iran war, which was stupid from the start, obviously stupid. It was a betrayal of his voters. That's obviously the reason why gas prices were up. And if you look at, like, Covid, for example, he's able to blame a million people. You can blame the Chinese, you can blame Fauci, you can blame Democrat. People could say, well, who could have predicted this virus would come? Like, this was not that. It was not some exogenous event. Right. It was like he started this war after promising that he wouldn't, and now you're paying more. So obviously people are gonna blame him. And I think the people being beaten down in the 13 years that Jen was talking about. I was watching a clip of this podcast. This guy, Sean Ryan, he's a very popular military kind of bro podcast, and he seemed so beaten down. I've never seen a podcaster so beaten down. Like, he had gotten on board with Trump. He was excited about it. And, like, the energy on this podcast where he's like, I think he's talking with Tucker. It was just like, I can't believe it. Like, who am I going to have to. Have to hope for anymore? Right? I do think a lot of his, even his excited supporters are now just like, how can I get excited about this anymore? Like, it's hard for me to, like, get up, you know, if you're being paid millions on FOX to do it, you can do it. But for a lot of other people, it's like, how can I get up the. Just the energy in the morning to be like, I'm really excited about the triumphal arc, you know, I'm, like, really excited that we're fighting with Jeanine Pirro about, you know, the Reflecting Pool. Like, he's not giving them anything to be excited about.
[10:23]
Nicole Wallace
Your point, I think about Sean Ryan. Like, polls don't ask the question, but we talked incessantly about the manosphere. Like, I wonder if it's time to start asking questions of people like Sean Ryan. Like, do you feel like less of a man because you fell for Trump's bullshit? I mean, he's played his voters fools. He is now, as you point out, literally tacking gold things to the office. And that is a day's work for him. And then in the middle of the night, he'll get up again and work for whatever five minutes it takes him to type out something insane on Truth Social and then charge firms for it to make money based on the policy announcements. The whole thing is a scam. The 80% of voters who think the economy is staying as bad as it is are getting worse. Include a whole lot of people that were fooled and duped into voting for him more than once.
[11:09]
Tim Miller
No doubt. And I don't know if any of them would admit that they feel like less of a man. Maybe some of the comedians would, but I do think that they don't. Like, they don't have the incentive, right? Like, these, the new people on Trump's coalition, right? Like, forget the people who are kind of MAGA propagandists in that media. Like, they're paid to just spin his BS and they'll keep doing it up until the last dog dies, right? Some of these other guys that came on board, they thought that they were coming on board for a project. They're mad about whatever. They're mad about the wars, they're mad about COVID they're mad about Woke. And they're like, okay, well this guy says he's going to deal with all this stuff and then not only does he not, but he kind of rubs it in their face. He covers up the Epstein files, he gets into a stupid Iran war, he enriches himself. And so I do think they don't feel like they have to carry his water anymore. And I do think that's a big change. My one caution to kind of Hopium on this is just they do still have. Trump's corruption has done one good thing for him besides his family's intergenerational wealth is that like he's been shaking down all these companies for money in exchange for, you know, tariff write offs or, you know, regulation rulings. And so their PACs have like so much unimaginable amounts of money and Elon's putting unimaginable amounts of money again in, during the midterms. And so if you look at, you know, whatever Jen mentioned Mississippi, a 46% approval, you know, in probably not Mississippi, but like in a state like Iowa or Texas or whatever, like where, where the Democrats need to win the Senate seat, there's going to be just wall to wall ads trying to vilify the Democrats because they can't say they can't make Trump look good. Right. But just try to at least vilify the Democrats enough to get people to go home to the Republican or to not, not flip, etc. And you know, I do think that that is the big challenge ahead for Democrats is like how do you counter that? Because that wave is coming and they're going to have to go win in these places where Trump has won by 10, 11, 12 points.
[13:09]
Nicole Wallace
Tim, I think we've both been on campaigns where we had more money and didn't prevail and we've been on campaigns where we were, where we were against the side. Yes.
[13:19]
Tim Miller
Not me, not the Democratic.
[13:21]
Sponsor Voice
Yeah.
[13:22]
Nicole Wallace
What is your sense of the role that money will play? Because I think that could be sort of a head fake. Right. And I think you look at, you look at other. I mean, this is a nationalized midterm election no matter what anyone says. And it doesn't override the strengths or weaknesses of individual candidates. But it is more conducive, I guess, to a wave.
[13:45]
Tim Miller
Look, I don't Think right there is a kind of one size fits all answer to this question. I think that in this Michigan primary tonight, Haley Stevens had more money. And I think a lot of ways that's going to end up having backfired on her. A lot of people are kind of unhappy with the special interest manipulation as they saw of the race. We'll see. And you know, like I was on Jeb's campaign, we had more money that didn't go well. So like money doesn't save everything. And I think that in a couple of those states that Jen mentioned, particularly Georgia and North Carolina, like Ossoff and Cooper are running such strong campaigns and swingy states and Trump's so unpopular that the money probably doesn't matter to me. I think the area to worry is for the Democrats to really take the Senate. They got to win Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, some combination of those four. And you know, in those states it's just going to be really incumbent on the candidates to distinguish themselves from whatever boogeyman brand the Republicans put out about them on tv. And Republicans have a lot of money to talk to Republican voters and say hey, you might not be, might not be thrilled about how things are going, but this person is scary for whatever reason. And I think those are going to be the places where that money could matter and where it's just, it's as Jen said, the Democrats have to have run really strong campaigns. There's going to be a smaller margin for error.
[15:03]
Nicole Wallace
There are growing calls for Republican Congressman Max Miller to resign amid allegations that he abused his ex wife and 2 year old daughter. Axios is reporting that Donald Trump spoke with Max Miller, informed him that quote, things aren't looking good and then repeatedly said his reelection would be tough. That is according to three sources. Miller has denied all allegations that of abuse and has sued his ex wife Emily Moreno for defamation. And in an interview this hour, Jake Tapper on cnn, he vowed to stay in the race. Tim, this shouldn't be a political question and I guess I'm old enough to remember when it wasn't. But right now these are the Republicans who have called for Miller's resignation based on what is alleged and what is in the public record. Bernie Moreno, his ex father in law, Shelley Moore. Capito, Lisa Murkowski, Roger Marshall, Jim Justice, Rick Scott and Cynthia Loomis. Max Miller for his part says he's staying in and that Donald Trump is standing by him. Of course he is. Your thoughts on why not a single House Republican has come out and called for his resignation?
[16:13]
Tim Miller
Look, Politics. They have a very small majority in the House and it's been made smaller by resignations by Marjorie Taylor Greene and others over the course of the last year and a half. So it's pure politics. It's inexcusable. I understand, you know, Senator Moreno in his case, going through a personal situation. Hard for me to judge what's happening behind the scenes. But, like, Max Miller has other allegations. The former spokesperson for Donald Trump, Stephanie Grisham, alleged that he domestically abused her. So that seems like a pretty credible allegation to me, seeing as she was a spokesperson for the Republican Party. That's not some left wing activist going after him that you should discredit that. But, you know, so if you're a Republican and you're doing this on the merits and you're. And you don't believe that someone that is credibly accused by two women of domestic abuse should be in Congress, then, like, they probably should have been speaking out about Max Miller a long time ago. We've been covering Max Miller's allegations for a while at the Bulwark. So these guys don't care. They wanted to get on their high horse about Graham Platner. All these people, Reince Priebus, my former boss, Kevin McCarthy, Kellyanne Conway, were all just condescending going on FOX about how the Democrats are protecting this man. And, you know, plenty of potential criticism for Democrats about how they handled the Platner situation. But like, once the credible, the most credible allegation of physical abuse came out, everyone said that he should resign, up to and including his closest political allies. And for Mike Johnson to be silent right now, there's no personal situation there. He's doing it simply to protect his House majority for what, for three months? And they're not even passing anything. So it's like political power for political power sake. Not even actually for any ideological end policy ends. So it's really shameful. We've seen it time and again. There are other Republicans in the House, I should mention, that have allegations. Corey Mills, Chuck Edwards, and they're nowhere to be seen.