Sam Stein (2:30)

Oh, no.

Jake Sherman (2:32)

Yep.

Sam Stein (2:33)

Oh, no. I have my problems with Craig these days. But we won't. We won't hold that Music camp.

Jake Sherman (2:37)

Laura would allow.

Sam Stein (2:38)

That really sucks. Okay, well, we're not here to talk about camp or Jewish camps, for that matter. I could go on for hours. We're here to talk about the house and what's happened here. Jake is, I think. I don't want to inflate your ego. All right? Jake's one of the best reporters on the house. Get it out of my system. He's covered. He covers it better than anyone. His head is giant for that reason, because everyone tells him how great he is, but he is good. So I haven't been following the drama this week as closely as Jake has, and I just felt like it's important to go over what actually transpired because it's meaningful. We're going to do that, and then we're going to get into some larger picture stuff about the state of the race and what we think about redistricting and the midterms. Before we do that, just a quick plug. Subscribe to the Bulwark. Subscribe to Punchbowl. I'm going to do that, too. And then we got two live shows coming up for the bull work out in San Diego, IN LA, May 20 and May 21. Go to the bulwark.comevents for tickets to those.

Jake Sherman (3:31)

Do you get to go to those, Sam?

Sam Stein (3:33)

Well, I'm in them if you want to come out west.

Jake Sherman (3:36)

I. I don't really, but that's exciting for you.

Sam Stein (3:40)

Maybe we can make you our surprise guest at the other one. All right. A lot of legislative business day, we're recording at like 3 o' on Thursday. And for a while earlier this week, it seemed like everything was shambolic and gonna fall apart. And then as I peered up today, it looks like they took care of business. So walk us through sort of broadly, what the big legislative movements were today.

Jake Sherman (4:00)

So a few things. We started this week, and Mike Johnson was going to put three bills on the floor. A farm bill, which is a huge bill. It's not just far and you know this, Sam, but I'll just explain a little bit more. It's not just foreign policy. It's nutrition policy. It's, it's. It is foreign policy. It's a whole host of things that are critical to the fabric of the country. And that's one. The second was a budget resolution, kind of convoluted, but sets up a. A vote to fund ICE and CBP for three years that Republicans only will vote for. And the third thing is extending fisa. This is obviously the foreign surveillance program that the United States could Basically surveil people without a warrant over, over, you know, telephones and things like that. I didn't think that they could pass that rule because my maxim is when you add hard things to hard things, they only get harder. They do not get easier. And I say that all the time. They did pass it. So may a cult buy already said that to many people in the leadership. They did pass it. They really worked it hard to pass it over a two hour period and then they passed the farm bill which is going to only get jammed up in the Senate. So it's a, it's a nice victory for them. It's a moral victory. It's not huge.

Sam Stein (5:20)

Why will it get jammed up in the Senate?

Jake Sherman (5:23)

There's a. They just have different views of foreign policy. We don't have punchable news. Pride of authorship. We are happy. Who, if anybody at our company writes anything. They do have pride of authorship up here. The Senate wants its stamp on ag policy and I, I understand that both chambers want to do that. The third thing is amazingly, the house ended the 75, 76 depending on how you calculate it, day DHS shutdown by voice vote which is just unbelievable. Why?

Sam Stein (5:51)

Why is that unbelievable? Yeah, why is that unbelievable?

Jake Sherman (5:53)

Well, it's unbelievable for a few reasons. Number one, the House House Speaker Mike Johnson said he wasn't going to pass this bill. He had problems with it and he was going to write his do do a slightly different bill. And if they, they passed it by voice vote after dumping all over the Senate for passing it by unanimous consent in the middle of the night. They passed the same bill by voice vote in the middle, not in the middle of the night, but in the middle of the day. And this was a 75 day shutdown. This was a very long shutdown that had, I mean humongous impacts. The impacts were a little bit lessened by the fact that the administration paid DHS workers by executive order. But main takeaway is that nothing comes easy in this House. And you know, I just have one more point to make and this has been rattling in my head for a while and maybe this is the perfect place to say it. The speaker and House Republicans like to say we have a tiny majority, like give. Well, you have a tiny majority for a reason. Voters only elected a certain number of House Republicans because that's how the election went. It's not like they were like, you know, they've got like taken members off the playing field for like, you know, for penalty. It's not like they're at a penalty Box.

Sam Stein (7:10)

Sure.

Jake Sherman (7:10)

Voters only elected a certain number of House Republicans.

Sam Stein (7:13)

So, anyway, so I look at it and I'm, I'm, you know, every time it's, it seems to follow a very familiar pattern, which is the conservatives in the caucus raise hell. They say they're not going to vote for these things. They demand changes, they demand reforms. They storm out of meetings with leadership. They have histrionics on the floor. They say, never again. And then Mike Johnson and his team and Donald Trump start working them, and they work them and they work them and eventually they relent. And it seems like that was the case basically, at least with FISA for sure, and with the DHS ICE bill in this case. Is that basically what happens every single time?

Jake Sherman (7:53)

Yes, but in this instance, it was a bit more complex in that on the DHS bill, there was this idea that they needed to see what the future path was to doing all these other, to funding ICE and CBP and make sure that they were actually going to fund them for three years. But I'll be honest with you, and this is something that I've struggled with a lot personally over the last couple years, is I give the conservatives way too much credit. I believe their threats. I take them at their. I don't take them at their word, but they're like, we're going to vote against the bill. When you say on the record, I am going to vote against this bill, like, I don't know, that seems like a pretty.

Sam Stein (8:35)

To the bank.

Jake Sherman (8:36)

But they always fold for nothing.

Sam Stein (8:40)

Well, you've adopted a moniker now, right? Known to fold.

Jake Sherman (8:44)

Known to fold. Ktf. Yes. Yeah. And that's a lot of, It's a lot of people in the House, Sam. And, you know, it is Trump when he, they need him, but it's really Johnson and Scalise and some of the things they do, they do like make policy concessions or strategic concessions that are not, you know, out of the ordinary or they're not getting bought off. And some of them are actually, like, decent enough and legitimate enough policy complaints, but they just fold all the damn time. It's unreal. And they don't really get a ton for it.

Sam Stein (9:18)

Well, why do you think they fold, then? I mean, what is it? What explains.

Jake Sherman (9:22)

They get worn down. They get worn down. And I mean, at the end of the day, like, most of this stuff is stuff Trump wants.

Sam Stein (9:29)

Right.

Jake Sherman (9:29)

You know, and, and, you know, I don't. I think they look around to what happened to someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene and what's happening to Tom Massie in Kentucky and like his grip over the party is still incredibly strong. And, and a lot of the times what they're asking for is not, you know, they know it's not doable. They have to put up a good fight and they eventually relent when, when it's, when it's clear that they can't win and when, when they want to go home.

Sam Stein (10:02)

Yeah. I'm trying to think of the, the most notable break that has happened in this Congress, in the House specifically. And the only thing that really jumps out was the Epstein files disclosure legislation. And the only break was among four or five members there. And that's all it took because it's such a narrow majority. But has there been another instance where they've had problems to that degree?

Jake Sherman (10:25)

Well, the FC thing was a bit more complex because I think it was terribly mismanaged by the House Republican leadership in ways that are, like, quite profound, just strategically. Well, you know, I think this, I think the speaker. The speaker gave power or not gave power, but let Comer run the investigation, James Comer. And I think that was, that was risky. And he showed why that was risky. He lost control. The process. I mean, it turned out that the subpoenas that he issued were, I would say, a little bit there were very wide. And believe me, I think that they should get all the information out. I'm not defending keeping the information private, but from a strategic point of view, I just think that they, he. It was an example where the leadership, I think, needed to be more involved in the investigation than they wanted to be. And at the end of the day, Sam, this was the kind of thing that was. You guys have talked about it, everyone has talked about it, has been stoked by the Republican base, stoked by a Republican president, and then Republicans are going to vote against it and be against.

Sam Stein (11:34)

Yeah, that was sort of untenable. Right. It's like they set it up and they, and they, they got, they tripped themselves up on that one.

Jake Sherman (11:40)

Yeah.

Sam Stein (11:41)

But absent that, they've managed to really keep folks in line. I mean, budget bills, spending bills, things that tripped up Paul Ryan, Kevin McCarthy, you know, little old Mike Johnson, this, you know, previous backbencher from Louisiana, who no one thought had leadership chops, somehow has gotten everyone in line.

Jake Sherman (12:03)

This is a debate we have internally a lot between myself and John Bresnahan, who is my co. Founder, my longtime colleague dating back almost 20 years. You have to give Johnson a lot of credit for what he's been able to do, whether you think it's good policy or not, that's a different question. Just like when, when people say, you know, they think Nancy Pelosi stinks. It's like if you can't admit that Nancy Pelosi is an incredibly effective speaker, then you're just, you're deluding yourself and you're not a serious person. She's been incredibly, she was incredibly effective. She, Johnson has been somewhat effective. He passed. I mean what you think of the one big beautiful bill act from a policy or political perspective is almost irrelevant. He got it through in a narrow voting climate, narrow majority. I mean it's a, it's pretty, and it's a pretty narrow bill and I don't think it'll, I'm not sure it'll have much impact in the election, whatever. But he got it done. Yes, they're got the government shut down. Yes, DHS has shut down but he's been able to keep people together. He's has survived kind of a half hearted attempt to oust him. I don't know what will there. I will say there's a lot of grumbling internally in the House Republican Conference about him but what are the main complaints? Oh, just nonsense. He does, he doesn't have a political bone in his body. He's, you know, and I don't know that I agree with that or just,

Sam Stein (13:28)

I thought it would be more like he, he's too hierarchical call, he demands things. He's not giving us open floors, things like that.

Jake Sherman (13:34)

No, but he's giving, he's put a lot of power in the committee chairs to some degree. But I will say like people feel like, you know, and this is a conversation I've had with him and, and his team a lot about like his relationship about Trump and, and what he says is like he works out his problems with Trump behind closed doors when it get, when, when the issues become public, they've already settled them effectively. That's another complaint that he's too closely tied to Trump and Trump's got 30% approval ratings and like are we going to follow him down this ditch? But there's a lot of griping because nothing is easy. Everything is drama. And I don't know that that's his fault exactly but, well that, I mean

Sam Stein (14:17)

that's just life in the age of Donald Trump. Borg takes a Sponsored by our frames. Look, Mother's Day is coming up and this is the last holiday where you want to get caught flat footed. Trust me, I've been there. It got ugly thankfully or Frame's digital picture frames are a complete Layup of a gift because you can give your mom more of her favorite thing. And what is that? It's you and your grandkids in pixel form. Whether you're reliving that trip to Disney or you're just reliving moments from your childhood. I love my Aura frame. I gave it to my mother in law last year. We put up all the pictures of her grandkids and her she loves it. She displays it right out there in her living room. These digital frames allow you to share your photos and videos effortlessly. Download the free Aura app or text photo straight to your frame and with free unlimited storage, you can add as many photos and videos as you want. You can even preload photos before it ships and then you can keep adding them at any time or anywhere. Every frame comes packaged in a premium gift box with no price tag. Their top rated App reached number one in the App Store on Christmas Day in 2025. Named number one by Wirecutter, you can save on the gifts moms love by visiting auraframes.com for a limited time. Listeners can get 25 off their best selling Carver matte frame with code Bulwark takes. That's a U R A frames.com promo code bulwark takes. Support the show by mentioning us at checkout and terms and conditions do apply. I actually am kind of curious about Trump in the grip because he's at like 33, 35 approval and yes, you don't, you don't have to like have a master's in Poly Sci to realize that, that things aren't going particularly well politically for him and that it doesn't pretend a particularly great midterms. And I would say traditionally if you were an endangered lawmaker in a party that's in the majority, you would be making fairly overt overtures to show your bipartisan fees and break with your party. And yet minus that guy out in California, what's his face? Kevin Kylie.

Jake Sherman (16:16)

Yep.

Sam Stein (16:17)

Kim Kiley who is like I'm an independent now. There's not really much. Right. Like there's, I can't really recall anyone with a dramatic break. I mean the breaks margin.

Jake Sherman (16:27)

Taylor Green, let's say. Okay, let I'll tell you something you should watch out for because they're going to do this. They're going to do a reconciliation bill. So a one party bill to fund ICE and cbp. That should pass pretty easily. No problems there in my estimation.

Sam Stein (16:41)

Sure.

Jake Sherman (16:41)

If there's problems there's going to be on the right because they're going to Want more. Now there's another reconciliation bill they want to do with a bunch of other policies, including the SAVE act and other spending policies and all sorts of stuff. That is going to be a place where you're going to see a lot of moderates saying, no, thanks, I'm not cutting any more from social safety net programs. I'm not doing anything else that resembles cuts, effectively. I think you'll see it there. But like, listen, they've held their party together on the war on a whole host of things that I've been, I've been surprised about, you know.

Sam Stein (17:20)

Yeah, 100%. It's been a bit of surprise. Let's talk about redistricting. So, I mean, it's like, impossible to keep track of, like, which states are

Jake Sherman (17:29)

doing what and whatnot.

Sam Stein (17:30)

In the end, it seems like Republicans, depending on how they respond to this Supreme Court ruling or on the Voting Rights act, will end up with a marginal to midsize gain, maybe like four or five seats. What do you think?

Jake Sherman (17:43)

I, I don't know about that. I don't know about that.

Sam Stein (17:46)

All right, what's your, what's your take

Jake Sherman (17:47)

on state of play without the Voting Rights Act? They were losing, right? They were they or they.

Sam Stein (17:54)

No, without the Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act.

Jake Sherman (17:56)

Right, exactly. Sorry. Yes. Without the decision. Yeah. Let's be abundantly clear here. They would have been losing. Now, if Louisiana redraws, which they already said they will, then you'll get another seat out of Louisiana. That's the district that runs northwest from New Orleans to Baton Rouge, which is a blue district, the only one of two blue districts in Louisiana. Then you look at a state like Tennessee. Does Tennessee redraw? Do a lot of these Southern states redraw? They're going to come under tremendous pressure to do so. Now, does Florida get four seats? Are those. Except the problem that I have, and we've been covering this a ton because we have Ali Mutnick, who I think is the best House reporter around. Didn't you edit her, Sam? So in Florida, the thing that Ally and I always talk about is like, and this is a little bit in the weeds, but you'll understand why I'm saying this. Like, you're basing these seats off of 2024 results for Republicans in a state like Florida where Trump did really well with Hispanics and had great, great results in Florida, like, that's not a great benchmark for Republicans. I, I don't know if they're ever going to be able to live up to that.

Sam Stein (19:10)

Again, yeah. Let me just add to that, like.

Jake Sherman (19:12)

Yeah.

Sam Stein (19:13)

And I don't know how much this matters, but you've seen on the state level in Florida a few results that suggest that there's a recalibration happening, right? Yeah, yeah. So there is that. There is that element, and then there's the legal element, too. I mean, I was talking to Mark Caputo about this, and the state constitution's pretty clear. Like, there's going to be some real challenges to this. Oh, yeah, he'll probably prevail. DeSantis, but it's not a. At least Mark. Mark's interpretation was much closer to a 50, 50 proposition than people were giving it credit for.

Jake Sherman (19:40)

I think he's right about that, and he is a true Florida man. Mark is. And. But the only thing is, is that DeSantis has appointed six of the seven Supreme Court justices in Florida. What. What does that mean? But you're right, the state constitution explicitly prohibits redistricting based on partisan out.

Sam Stein (20:06)

Intent.

Jake Sherman (20:07)

Yeah, yeah. Intent. But, yeah. I mean, I think at the end of the day, California and Texas probably Wash. And if you assume some of these seats in Texas aren't Republicans, aren't even, you know, guaranteed to win. And you've also seen some states, Sam, take a pass for Democrats. Maryland, where they could have gained a seat, said no. Right. Illinois said no. So it's not. It. It's. Well, I don't know where it'll come out in the wash. And the VRA decision certainly complicates matters to a great degree.

Sam Stein (20:41)

Sure. Let's say in theory, a bunch of like three or four Republican states in the south basically say, yeah, we'll. We'll take an opportunity. We'll push us through. You get another three or four Republican seats out of that in this climate, is that enough? Right. Like, everything I've seen from the polling data from people I talk to suggests that this is going to be an incredible wave election. Now, we don't know what happens in six months, but you talk way more to the people on the Republican side of the legend than I do. What are they fearful of? What's coming? Even in the most optimistic redistricting situation,

Jake Sherman (21:16)

the realistic people understand they're going to get. They. They should get smoked. Will. Will they get smoked? I don't know. Because, Sam, when you and I started covering this stuff in, like, you know, 0608 10, you were looking at. You walked into a cycle and there were 55 to 60 competitive seats. Right, Right. Like, there were, you know, and it was just A different climate now there's like 20 to 30, you know, so

Sam Stein (21:41)

soon to soon to be 10 to 15.

Jake Sherman (21:44)

Right. So I don't know what a wave looks like. Does that mean the Democrats are beating deep red Republicans like Republicans, what we call like R +10 seeds? So the average Republican wins by 10 points. Like that would be a true, true wave, right. If people are, are losing that you never thought could have a race that would be a true massive wave. I, I, I do think that if you do snatch four seats, if you're Republicans, if you, if you eliminate a seat in Alabama, you eliminate a scene in Louisiana, you eliminate a seat in South Carolina, Clyburn seat, South Carolina, Tennessee, go, go to Tennessee, you eliminate Steve Cohen seat like that, you know, that turns a two or three seat majority into a seven or eight seat majority or six or seven seat majority. Every seat matters. Right?

Sam Stein (22:37)

What are the signs you're looking for to know how panicky Republicans are?

Jake Sherman (22:42)

Gas prices. Do you start seeing these breaks with Trump? Do people vote against the reconciliation package? Do you see, do you see more people signing on to Democratic discharge petitions, which is a way to get around your leadership? Do you see people introducing, do you see a, I would say Brian Fitzpatrick, but he's not a great example because he's Republican for Pennsylvania, just keeps winning in a Kamala Harris seat. But Mike Lawler or any of the New York Republicans start introducing bills to say you got to get out of Iraq. You know, I'm not that issue. But like things that do you see or do people go on TV earlier? Do any of those things would be. But listen, you and I know this, right? People don't really tune in until much later and, and much, much later.

Sam Stein (23:32)

Like Labor Day later, right? Like we're talking.

Jake Sherman (23:34)

I actually think that hasn't helped. I just think the volume of TV ads and stuff like that are not, I, I do think people tune in earlier, but not this early. So.

Sam Stein (23:42)

Okay, there's time. All right, well, we'll be watching, man. And I'll be reading punch bowl, looking for the signs, looking for your coverage. Appreciate you finally ending your block. He's blockaded us like we've blockaded the straight up.

Jake Sherman (23:55)

It's, it's only because you're a better golfer than me these days that I, that I, that I.

Sam Stein (24:00)

There's nothing to do. Nothing to do with YouTube, man. Come on.

Jake Sherman (24:03)

I, I know, but, but it's just every time I look at you, Sam, I get pain that I can't play like you anymore. And I just get frustrated.

Sam Stein (24:14)

That is not true. We'll have to go back out on the course. All right. Jake Sherman from Punchbowl. Everyone should subscribe to his newsletter. As long as you subscribe to our newsletters first. Take care, my man. Appreciate you.