Bulwark Takes – "America’s Dark Era Could End in 2029" (w/ Brian Beutler)

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Host: JVL (Jonathan V. Last)
Guest: Brian Beutler (Editor and Publisher, Off Message)
Date: September 5, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode features a candid and lively conversation between JVL and journalist Brian Beutler about whether America’s ongoing democratic crisis has an endpoint—and if so, what rebuilding liberal democracy might actually look like. The discussion examines the resiliency of America’s political system, the choices Democratic leaders face, the allure and dangers of authoritarianism, and the strategies for moving beyond the dark era of Trumpism. Running through the conversation is Beutler’s surprisingly optimistic belief that American democracy can be rebuilt, albeit through hard, unpopular, and possibly radical measures.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. How Did We Get Here? The Degradation of Liberal Democracy

• Complex Systems and Failure (03:10)
  JVL riffs on concepts from science fiction (notably "The Expanse") to frame American democracy as a "man-made complex system" that’s under unprecedented stress. Unlike nature’s resilient networks, America's governing institutions proved less adaptable:

  "Congress has failed, the legislature, which was there, has failed. The business community has basically failed. The legal world has partially failed, but partially held." (05:15, JVL)

• Both agree that key institutions—Congress, courts, business—have at best barely held up, but significant parts have failed under the authoritarian challenge of Trump.

2. The Fork in the Road: Biden’s Two Paths (06:05)

• JVL describes a key early-Biden administration debate:
  • A radical, unpopular attempt to “Trump-proof” democracy with bold structural reforms.
  • A more moderate approach: "take down the temperature and fake it till we make it."
• Conclusion: Biden clearly chose the latter—an attempt to normalize and deescalate—"and he clearly failed." (07:07, JVL)

3. Can We Rebuild from Collapse?

• Beutler’s optimism: Even if things worsen, the process of rebuilding liberal democracy is difficult but not unprecedented.
• He itemizes what’s required (09:32):
  • Making Trump and authoritarianism broadly unpopular.
  • Assembling" unified government in 2029," even if by hope.
  • Purging Trump loyalists from government with zero apology.
  • Accountability for lawbreakers and a kind of “truth and reconciliation” reckoning, surpassing Watergate.
  • Structural (possibly constitutional) reforms to make a rebuilt democracy durable.

  "We've seen societies backslide, democracies backslide and then, like, reassert themselves... if you can get that [authoritarian support] below 40% or 35 and have the people in place with the right mindset, and just willing to press ahead, I think you can get there." (12:40, Beutler)

4. Is There Precedent for Democratic Recoveries? (13:34)

• JVL: “Are there a lot of examples of democracies which backslid and then reasserted themselves?”
• Beutler: Not many; Poland “in limbo” is perhaps the best example. He likens it to a "dimmer switch"—things get darker, but light may return.
• Pessimism persists: The U.S. is in an historically “dark” spot, but the chance for a return is not extinguished.

5. The Dangerous Minority: How Much Authoritarian Support Do We Have?

• They discuss what share of the U.S. public truly supports the current authoritarian direction.

  Beutler: “I would guess it’s north of 30, but not much... 20 to 25% of every democracy is basically fascists.” (14:57, Beutler)

  • The U.S. system’s lack of fail-safes let a dedicated minority take power.

6. Could Strong Reform Majorities Swamp Authoritarianism Again?

• Beutler raises the hope of a kind of 2008/2009 Obama-style landslide and legislative majority.
• JVL disagrees: “McCain was not running on totalitarianism... once that 25% [fascist-inclined] is all together in a single home, that’s unbelievably powerful.” (18:23, JVL)
• The consolidation and alignment of authoritarian-inclined voters make the current threat unique and more dangerous.

7. The Confidence Gap: Pro-Democracy vs. MAGA

• Beutler: The MAGA movement projects total confidence—giving a sense of “inevitability”—whereas the pro-democracy camp is fractured and unsure.

  “I think this is like an unattractive quality of it that prevents it from reaching maximum power...” (19:27, Beutler)

• What’s needed: A "quasi-stable" democratic system that can endure, not just a four- or eight-year fix.

8. Realism About Policy and Institutional Change

• JVL: Real reform might be impossible without system-level changes like Supreme Court reform or adding states (27:06).
• Beutler agrees: Policy debates (abundance vs. post-neoliberalism) are secondary to the raw work of rebuilding foundational government infrastructure.

  “If there’s going to be a Democratic governing party in 2029, they’re going to have to focus on rudiments, right? Building some foundation...” (26:52, Beutler)

9. Lack of Democratic Urgency: A Frustrated Critique

• Both express frustration that Democratic elites aren’t treating the threat with necessary urgency.

  “Sam Bagenstas... knows what it would take... and he also knows the players... and he’s like, there is not nearly enough talk about how this... is like a root and branch situation we have.” (24:17, Beutler)

• Beutler wants Democrats to mimic Tom Cotton in “stacking” party signatures on threats/pledges as a show of seriousness and resolve.

10. Will Americans Tire of Authoritarianism?

• They debate whether public support for Trumpism can erode ("as atrocities pile up") or whether authoritarian minority support only intensifies as it gains power.

  JVL: “...once they see the way that it’s ascendant, some people are going to be repelled by it, but some people are going to be like, I don’t know. It’s the only game in town.” (34:37, JVL)

• Beutler sees hope for a “floor” on authoritarian support—perhaps as low as Bush’s 28% when he left office—even if Trump’s numbers have been stubbornly high.

11. A Path Forward: Not Inevitable, But Doable

• Beutler, channeling cautious optimism: Unshackle from the filibuster, reform the judiciary, rally a united, confident pro-democracy coalition, and the tunnel’s narrowing light might widen.

  “I just see like, you know, like a pinpoint of light at the end of the tunnel. And, and I feel like if you could just get, get a little bit more of what I’m talking about, it would widen a little bit.” (31:57, Beutler)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Democratic Inaction and Historical Cycles:

  “There’s a good book, The Age of Acrimony, about the period... American politics was incredibly ugly. And then it just stopped. People moved on. There were other things... sometimes things get plowed under. And maybe that could happen here.” (40:01, JVL)

• On Trump’s Significance in American Politics:

  “Trump himself seems to be a category difference in terms of his hostility to liberalism... which has just never existed in America, didn’t even exist under Nixon.” (47:21, JVL)

• On Projecting Party Confidence:

  “The MAGA movement conducts itself with total confidence... it gives them a sense of inevitability. And the pro-democracy movement is fractured and unsure of itself.” (19:27, Beutler)

• On the Need for a Reckoning and Systemic Reform:

  “It’s like the post-Watergate settlement times 100. But we’ve seen societies do each of these things before... so I don’t feel like this is a hopeless situation.” (12:08, Beutler)

Important Timestamps & Segments

• 00:35 – Brian Beutler introduces himself and sets up the central dilemma: pessimism versus cautious hope about democratic repair.
• 03:10 – JVL introduces the simple/complex systems metaphor for democratic resilience.
• 06:05 – The debate over how Biden could have handled the threat to democracy differently.
• 09:32 – Beutler details the steps necessary for meaningful democratic recovery.
• 13:34 – Discussion of democracy’s historical backsliding and resilience.
• 14:57 – How many Americans truly support authoritarianism and what that means for democratic recovery.
• 18:23 – JVL warns of the unique danger once “fascist-inclined” citizens consolidate politically.
• 19:27 – Beutler on the contrast between MAGA and pro-democracy confidence.
• 27:06 – JVL and Beutler discuss system-level reforms as prerequisites for real recovery.
• 31:57 – Beutler’s “pinpoint of light” optimism and what would help widen it.
• 40:01 – JVL offers a historical perspective: maybe the conflict just dissipates, left unresolved, as in past American crises.
• 47:21 – JVL’s take on Trump as a rupture from—not fulfillment of—conservative tradition.

Final Takeaways

• While the American system is embattled and some corrective windows have closed, both speakers find grounds for hope—but stress that recovery requires unified effort, accountability, and structural/institutional repair more than policy detail.
• The chief obstacles are both structural (a polarized, minoritarian system) and psychological: an underconfident, insufficiently urgent Democratic elite.
• History doesn’t offer many clear templates for democratic renewal—but does demonstrate societies can either sink deeper or, less often, climb back out.
• Both caution against fatalism: authoritarian dominance is not immutable if countered by relentless, confident, collective democratic action.

For listeners seeking nuanced analysis of American democracy’s darkest era and a serious consideration of what comes next, this episode is both thought-provoking and surprisingly hopeful.