← Bulwark Takes
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- [00:00]
A
Hello, everyone. I'm JVL here with my Bulwark colleague, Andrew Egger. And we just watched Caroline Leavitt's press conference. I feel like we're doing a reaction show to an end of the season episode of everybody's favorite series, the hit series, very strong ratings, Iran War. And Andrew, I guess we'll start with this. Is there a ceasefire?
- [00:30]
B
Well, I guess it depends on what you mean by a ceasefire. If your definition of ceasefire would be that people have ceased firing, it seems that the answer is no. We have tons of reports of things going everywhere this morning, but if you were expecting Carolyn Levitt to really like weigh in on that in this conference, you would have turned out to be disappointed.
- [00:50]
A
Okay, out of curiosity, because I did miss the first minute and a half of this press conference. Did she swerve and say that all things considered, starting out with our goals of unconditional surrender and then regime change, that maybe we didn't get everything we wanted to. Was there any admission of that from her in the beginning part of the press conference?
- [01:17]
B
No, actually, if you missed the first minute and a half of the press conference, you missed a sort of inexplicable thing that she wedged in right at the beginning about this sort of like anti AI cyberbullying porn bill that apparently Melania Trump has been involved with. So that seemed like important news to get to right off the top. But no, from the very first things that Carolyn had to say about the state of the ceasefire to the end, she was remarkable in sort of like the over the top, mission accomplished, we've done what we came here to do. I mean, it really sounded like the kind of remarks that you would give the day after the actual signing of a conflict ending treaty. Far more so than just from a. We got what we set out to do, which was to suspend our own deadline and agree to have talks along lines that are wildly dissimilar in terms of our asks versus their asks, while the firing continues to happen among all parties other than the United States, apparently. I mean, it was just a very weird split screen between all the headlines we've had out of Iran and out of the Strait of Hormuz and the broader region today, and the tone that, that the press secretary took in in this conference today.
- [02:35]
A
So it does seem to me that the administration seems desperate for this ceasefire like this. I mean, they seem to want to hold on to this thing, to cherish it. One might even say to take it, to cherish it, to just grab it by the fire or the seas. Who can say which? And that's, again, not something you do when you're in the strong, dominant, winning position. Right. That if you're in that position, then you would be willing to like, well, whatever. We got to go back. We got to go back. Before we dig into the specific parts of the press conference, can I just put a quarter in the machine and let you. Let you just cook on your overall thoughts before we go into the specifics?
- [03:18]
B
Oh, I don't know. I mean, I guess my baseline thing is sort of along the lines of the thing I just said, which is that I just cannot believe how much she is spiking the football here. I can. I could not believe that at a. At a moment of such sort of like, maximum uncertainty about the status of this ceasefire that they just signed, you know, like 12 hours ago, or they just agreed to put into effect. Obviously there wasn't even any real signing that happened, but they basically all just. Just said, you know, we're going to lay down our guns and stop shooting. And then as more and more reports continue to trickle out, which you also saw, by the way, in this very press conference, there'd be some breaking news of some new set of explosions in Iran. And someone would ask Carolyn about it, and she'd be like, look, I'm up here at the podium, I'm talking to you people. You've probably heard more about that than me. I'm gonna have to go talk to the National Security Council about that kind of stuff. And yet, despite all of that, it was not like, this is a breather and we're going to be right back there. If Iran so much as looks at us wrong, which is what Iran is saying, by the way. The way they're messaging this thing is the second anybody else looks at us crosswise or violates this ceasefire, we're slamming all these controls back on the strait. But that was very much not the impression that Carolyn Levitt gave. The impression she gave was, Donald Trump has landed the plane for us. The American people should be very happy with all of these outcomes we have already achieved. And then on the specific question of the strait, there was a ludicrous amount of just sort of like cognitive dissonance, a lot of it stemming from some stuff Donald Trump himself said this morning that seemed to be completely at odds. Oh, yeah, we can get into that later. But that was just.
- [05:01]
A
We'll get into that in a minute. Yeah. Before we do, though, I mean, I will just underscore for listeners what you're talking about. Here is at one point the question was asked, who is bombing Iran right now? To which Carolyn leave it replied, I'll have to go back and check with the national security team. I mean, my understanding was that there are only two belligerents in this on our side, America and Israel. And so it's either us or it's the Israelis who could say, all right, so I want to roll the tape of the fundamentally, this entire ceasefire is really about the Strait of Hormuz. And the single most basic question is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed right now? Carolyn, leave it.
- [05:53]
C
State media is saying that Iran has now closed off the Strait of Hormuz today in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. What's the White House response to that? And you just listed many military successes. I understand that, but strategic, strategically, how is the administration arguing that Iran does not have more economic leverage now than
- [06:15]
A
it did before the start of the war?
- [06:16]
D
Ms. Sure. Well, with respect to the first reporting out of Iranian state media, the president was made aware of those reports before I came to the podium. That is completely unacceptable. And again, this is a case of what they're saying publicly is different privately. We have seen an uptick of traffic in the strait today, and I will reiterate the president's expectation and demand that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately, quickly and safely. That is his expectation. It has been relayed to him privately that that is what's taking place and these reports publicly are false.
- [06:48]
A
CAROLINE so, Matt, we'll get to we're going to unpack that in a minute. Matt, do you have the other one where she's asked, like, is it open? If you have that, we'll run that posted the statement from the Iranian government
- [07:03]
B
that passage in the strait will be
- [07:04]
A
coordinated with Iran's armed forces as of today, who controls the state of Strait of Hormuz?
- [07:11]
D
Again, these statements were put out 12 hours ago. We expect that the strait will be opened immediately. As I said earlier, we have seen an uptick in traffic in the street, and it's something that we are monitoring minute by minute, hour by hour as the days go on. I'm asking another question. Who controls the strait right now? 1 on
- [07:32]
B
well, Iran controls the strait, right? I mean, sorry, go ahead.
- [07:35]
A
So so her position seems to be Iran is saying two different things, one privately to domestic audiences and one publicly to two I mean, maybe not publicly, but maybe to the United States government. That is not crazy. That is actually an old trick of Iran. They would often do this during, like nuclear negotiations With. With the Bushes, with the Clintons, with President Obama, with President Biden. This is like a famous thing they do. You know, you say one thing at the UN and another thing when you're, you know, out in the provinces, in Tehran. This is a factual question about is the strait open or closed? And her position seems to be. Well, they may be saying internally that it's closed, but they tell us it's open.
- [08:29]
B
Yeah, it's an interesting inversion of the internally, publicly thing because. Right, because the publicly thing is usually about what they're disseminating to media, like their state media. And then privately, they're telling us, they're telling the negotiators about what's really happening, whereas every piece of information that we are getting about this is that it's the opposite. We don't know what exactly they have told our negotiators or President Trump or whoever, but apparently, whatever they've said, he's comfortable with it. So that's the private channel, but the problem is that the public channel is not just them, like, talking on state media to, like, the Iranian public. The public channel is them communicating directly to the ships that are currently stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, saying, you still need to abide by the preexisting arrangement where you need to get the direct approval of the. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, or we may blow up your boat. I mean, like, that. And that has not changed at all. Those are not reports that are coming out of Iranian media. Those are reports that are coming out of, like, shipping publications, maritime publications. They're actually talking to the boats that are stuck there that really want to leave. They've been stuck there way too long. It's like humanitarian. It's not just an economic thing. It's like a humanitarian thing. For the merchant mariners who are on these ships and everything, they're dying to get out of the strait because they can't dock. I mean, there's all these problems, but. But they have not yet seen. Like, that's the public. The public is not just, like, messaging. The public is not. The public side of this is not just spin. The public side of this is that the President has declared the straits open. Come on through. But Iran is communicating to these. To these ships. Well, not so fast. And right now, they're listening. Not to Trump. They're not saying, well, Donald Trump said, here's my. Here's my hall pass. Donald Trump said, I could come through here. They're listening to the group that has the ability to send drones to hit their vessels. And that's the problem that has been around for weeks and that still persists apparently, despite the ceasefire today.
- [10:21]
A
So before we wrap with the straight, the final piece of this is the question of tolls. So another thing that we surrendered away seems to be the ability to imposed tolls. Seeing lots of different things being proposed, I am interested in why it took so long for Donald Trump to decide, hey, wait a minute, these tolls are an okay idea so long as I get my beak wet too. Because we did get a little bit from him. I don't know if it was last night or this morning. You wrote about this, Andrew, he, in which he suggested actually with regard to these tolls, you know, this is something we're looking into very strongly.
- [11:10]
B
Yeah, this was one of these weird little like mini phoners he's been doing of. He's been doing with like every reporter who has his phone number under the sun. Not me, I don't have it. If any of you in the comments section happen to have the President's phone number and want to send it my way, I'd really appreciate it. But it was ABC's Jonathan Karl who called him and basically was like, so look, what is the deal with this, with this tolling system? And it has been the position of the US Government of the Trump White House that these tolls are unacceptable and that that Iran needs to return the strait of former moves to the preexisting status quo. But interestingly, that was not what the President himself expressed this morning. He said, well, you know, actually what we're looking into is sort of like a joint US Iran tolling situation where, where, you know, we, we, we get a little bit of that bribe money too for all of the oil tankers that are moving through this international waterway under threat of terrorist attack by Iran. I mean, it was just like one of, one of these things that you like couldn't even imagine ever being said even after yesterday. It was sort of like he said, what exactly. And then at the, at the briefing today, you know, Levitt was just sort of like squirming around this question because she couldn't really, there's nothing she can really say about it because it still remains, I guess, the US Negotiating position at these talks that are happening that Iran has to open the strait and they haven't yet and they are really under. No, we obviously lack the pressure to make them, which is the whole problem. I mean, bombing them more and more and more and more and more was not enough to make them. We would have to send in ground troops. And the President considers that unacceptable. So that's kind of a bind that we're in. But at the briefing today, she basically said, well, that's just kind of an idea the President has floated. But it remains the position of the government that we need to have this. A toll free zone, sort of back to the way it was. That was just one more insane swerve in all of this. Straight from the cuckoo mind of the President.
- [13:01]
A
Andrew, no ideas in a brainstorm. We're not going to judge. We're all, I would just say for people who maybe don't follow maritime law, the Strait of Hormuz is governed by international law to which we are simply one signatory. It is insane that the United States thinks that they can establish. Yes, Iran gets to toll people unilaterally. This is the kind of thing that requires a lot of people to buy into. It's, it's a little nuts. We are going to talk about what's going in Lebanon in a moment. I'm sorry, we have to do a quick ad. Ready? Bear with me. Where is my ad? There we go. Finding a doctor you actually feel like discovering. See, this is what happens when you do it live. Finding a doctor you actually like feels like discovering a diamond in the rough. Sure, you want someone in network nearby with open time slots, but let's be honest, that's just the start. You also deserve someone who really listens. Zoc Doc is a free app and website that helps you find and book high quality in network doctors so you can find someone you love. We're talking about booking in network appointments with more than 150,000 providers across all 50 states. Stop putting off those doctor's appointments and go to zocdoc.com bulwarktakes to find and instantly book a doctor you love today. That's Zoc Doc.com Bulwark takes ZocDoc.com Bulwark takes thanks ZocDoc for sponsoring this message and for inventing a new tongue twister to embarrass me on YouTube. I really appreciate that. So we had something interesting about Lebanon because one of the other fronts of the war is Israel's incursion into Lebanon. We had a bunch of explosions in Beirut. This is reporting Israel. Israeli military said they were carrying out the largest strike against Hezbollah terrorists since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion. Lebanon says at least 120, 112 people killed, hundreds of others wounded. And here I'm just going to, just going to read this straight account from CBS News, Iran is accusing Israel of violating the conditional ceasefire announced by President Trump by continuing its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. But Israel has said the agreement does not extend to its war with the Iran back Hezbollah, although mediator Pakistan said it does. I mean, it all seems perfectly clear to me.
- [15:56]
B
Yeah, and this was something, this was another thing that, that Levitt got into today at the briefing where she was basically like, you know, we're encouraging them to sort of wrap, wrap up that conflict for the ceasefire. We would, we would like for that to stop. But also we are, we are, we too are of the opinion that, that our, our ceasefire does not extend to the conflict in Lebanon. The problem is that Iran thinks it does. Right. And I mean, this, this was the basis under which Iran announced this morning that it was reclosing the Strait. So, like, again, I, it's, let me, let me give like, one countervailing possibility here, because this is a thing that, that Levitt floated at the briefing and it could end up being the case, or at least there's one way of looking at what's going on in the Strait right now. One of the consequences of all of the bombing we've done of Iran is that we've taken out a lot of their ability to sort of communicate centrally, especially even within the military infrastructure. They have this sort of like, mosaic structure where different little Regional Guard commanders are empowered to sort of take more independent action than you'd necessarily expect from a state military. And so it is possible that some of this stuff, some of these announcements, some of these guys like radioing boats and saying, better not come, or these, some of these strikes that are still taking place are a result of the ceasefire sort of slowly trickling down. And like, these guys literally just not yet having gotten the news that they're supposed to put down their guns and stuff. So, so it's not completely outside of the question. This will look a little different tomorrow. But that said, I mean, this, this whole Lebanon situation does seem to have really imperiled what, what fragile ceasefire, you know, even at the central level did exist. Because, you know, if Iran is saying, well, look, this can't keep going on if, if, if we're going to keep abiding by this, and also meanwhile, they're not keeping abiding by this. I mean, these things take on a logic of their own. Right? And I guess the one other thing about it that we haven't really talked about it at all is, is Israel's role in all of this, because right at the beginning of this War. There was a lot of reporting that basically said Donald Trump, it's not like he got dragged into it kicking and screaming. He wanted to strike Iran, he kind of always has. But it was absolutely predicated by Bibi Netanyahu coming to the White House and pitching him on this conflict and saying, hey, let's do it, this is the moment, let's go. And Trump agreeing to that. And now here we are on the far end of it where it's good, I guess, that Trump sort of backed off of his pledges of humanitarian catastrophe in order to get some sort of face saving fake ceasefire here. And so I guess even if the ceasefire falls apart, at least we got over that hump. But once again, it is Israel and Israel strikes that are continuing to kind of like drag the US in places that the US by its own account doesn't want to be dragged. So, like, it's not, this is not some like, conspiracy theory about, about, you know, like Bibi Netanyahu dog walking Donald Trump. It's the account of the White House about all of this stuff. I mean, like they are basically saying, well, yeah, I mean, we sure wish they had, they would abide by this ceasefire out there too. But it doesn't, it doesn't really qualify. Is Levitt's position, does it appear to
- [19:06]
A
you that Israel is in favor of a ceasefire?
- [19:09]
B
Israel. So the weird thing about Israel is that they are domestically, the situation is 100% the reverse of what it is in Americ. I mean, like Netanyahu fears political pain, political reprisals if he were to go along with this ceasefire. They do not want to see this ceasefire under these terms because unlike us, I mean, all of these, the grab bag of priorities that Iran wants to see happen in this ceasefire, which Trump apparently is at least suggesting that he could be amenable to. Those are bad things from the point of view of US policy, but they're horrible things from the point of view of the lived experience of anybody in Israel. Right? So they're like, absolutely not. We're not going along with this stuff. That's not to say that Trump couldn't, if he really put his mind to it, sort of push Bibi into it. Right? I mean, like Trump has leverage in this situation not only over Iran, but also over our allies. In theory, it seems like that, you know, we're a lot bigger than they are. We should be able to set some of these terms. We should not necessarily just be okay with a situation where Israel's unilateral action complicates and even fractures this ceasefire that apparently is so good. But the other side side of it is it doesn't seem like the ceasefire really exists anyway. So I don't, I don't know exactly the right way to spin all of that, but it's, it's just, it just really underscores just how fragile and hanging by a thread all of this is. Just 12 hours, 20 hours later.
- [20:31]
A
I will say it has appeared to me from basically the start that Israel's goal was to turn Iran into a failed state. They did not particularly care about having a like liberal regime or Iranian democracy or anything like that. They wanted it to look like Gaza and to be basically ungovernable. Bob Kagan talked about this when he was with Bill Kristol. I think it was with Bill, maybe it was Tim, a couple weeks ago. So this, the terms of this ceasefire, if they are what they appear to have been, where is Iran winds up controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions go away. Nuclear progress at least isn't outlawed. You know, according to the terms of our deal, Iran gets pushed closer with China. The Europeans and the Saudis probably make their own accommodations with Iran. This is close to a worst possible scenario for Israel. I think the problem is that it's like the best available scenario for America. Right. I mean I wrote about this today. If you look at all once, once Trump invaded or was, once Trump launched the war, like the number of off ramps and what they all looked like, this is the least bad outcome for America. And so you have the two allies in the war whose, whose end states are now like fully unmisaligned. And I don't know how that's going to play out. It's going to be very interesting. All right, moving on. We did talk a little bit about the threats of genocide, which I guess is art of the deal. Is that your maybe. Do we have the sound on that? Matt?
- [22:29]
E
Yesterday the President threatened to destroy Iran's civilization, the entire civilization, not the Iranian government, but the Iranian civilization, the Iranian people. The US has been a moral leader for most of its history by fighting wars against other governments, not against civilizations. How can the President claim that America can ever have the moral high ground if he's threatening to destroy civilizations and not casting wars as fights against other governments?
- [23:04]
D
Andrew, I think you should take a look at the actions of this president over the course of the past six weeks and the actions of our brave men and women in our United States military who have taken out the, essentially taken out the military of a rogue Islamic regime that has chanted death to America for 47 years, that has killed and maimed thousands of American soldiers over the course of the last five decades. The president absolutely has the moral high ground over the Iranian terrorist regime. And for you to even suggest otherwise is frankly insulting.
- [23:37]
A
Frankly. She said frankly. So that really underscores how insulting it is.
- [23:44]
B
I really like that. I mean, she made two points there, one of which is that you shouldn't pay attention to the words of the President, United States. You should only pay attention to actions. Okay, sure. Why would we ever pay attention to any of the missives that he puts up on his social media platform that, like, whipsaw U.S. policy around, like, the second he posts them all the time? And then the other thing is, like, I can't believe you would insinuate that the US Is worse off than Iran, or, like, is morally worse than Iran. Like, I don't think that was the substance of the question. It's not, is the US Worse than Iran? It's is the US Living up to being a lot better than Iran? Like, we would hope to be as sort of like the leader of the free world and not this sort of like, clerical fascist state? So, I don't know. I mean, it was kind of notable to me that she never really defended it. I mean, like, she danced around it. She was not, like, the president was absolutely right to say that. It was just sort of like, well, if you look at the actions, it seems to have had a good outcome, although it hasn't. It's already kind of falling apart. And then just inventing sort of, sort of fake things that the reporter had said to avoid commenting on the substance of the president threatening a genocide.
- [24:51]
A
Well, she's in a box, right? Because either he absolutely meant it and was going to do genocide, it's just that it happened to have worked out this time. Or he didn't mean it. It was all 4D chess. He was never going to do genocide. Don't worry. Look, the good outcome we have. But if you do that, you have to say, but of course he was never going to do it. He was just bluffing. And she can't do that either, right? Yeah, that's the box. So once you say you're into genociding and war crimes, it's a little tough.
- [25:26]
B
And I do think we have learned enough over the last 24 hours that we can pretty confidently say it was the latter, that Trump truly was bluffing. And then when. When Iran just kind of called the bluff, he was the one who Freaked out. He was the one who went to Pakistan and was like, you got it. You got to announce that there's some breakthrough in this. And you know, that then kind of called his own bluff and, you know, punted his own deadline. And, and I guess we're going to see whether, I mean, like, this is the problem, like, where does he go next? There's not, there's no additional escalation rhetorically that can happen. So I guess we're all just going to have to wait and see.
- [26:00]
A
There's even a moment in the presser where they, they talked about the ten point plan because it's the other, the other thing. This 10 point plan did not just happen yesterday. Like it, it happened several days ago. And in order to preserve the idea that the genocide threat worked, Leavitt had to say, no, no, no, no, this is a totally different 10 point plan. They, they submitted another 10 point plan that was totally unserious and we rejected that. So they had to go back and do a total. And you're like, sure, Jan. Yeah, there's
- [26:31]
B
a brand new 10 point. It's very reasonable. We like it has the same number. Anything that's in it? Yeah, we can't tell you anything about it. Iran is reporting what, what, what they're saying is in it. But that's all lies. You can't believe a word of that. And it's just, I mean, it, what can you say? I mean, they have, they push in all their chips on this bluff. Iran called the bluff and everything that has happened since then has been just sort of like one big sort of face saving messaging boondoggle. And like, you know, Trump threatening to sue CNN for like reporting on what Iran was saying about the deal and all this stuff. And like, meanwhile, we're still in this same insane situation where Iran still controls the Strait and we still can't beat that out of them just by dropping bombs on them, no matter how much Hegseth wants to try. And like, this is, we just, there's no, there's no, there's nothing new. Nothing has happened. There has been no breakthrough and, and we're still stuck here.
- [27:27]
A
I disagree.
- [27:28]
B
Okay, all right, tell me there, there
- [27:30]
A
has been an actual breakthrough and I think I'm being sarcastic, but I'm not sarcastic. America has in principle agreed to grant administrative control of the Strait to Iran.
- [27:42]
B
Well, yes, okay, you already said that.
- [27:45]
A
It's right. I mean, this is an enormous, this is a sea change. This is a thing which international law has insisted for decades and decades. Like, like Nope. Nope. This strait is an accident geography, and it is not subject to normal laws of territorial waters. This is an open waterway, and the United States has said in principle, we'll. We'll let the Iranians control it in perpetuity, so long as they'll just open it now because gas prices are getting really high, and we have an election to come, which is astonishing. Last thing, and then we'll get out of here. Towards the very end, Leavitt was asked about withdrawing from NATO, because why not? And she said, the President is considering it. I guess if you're riding high on this tremendous victory that you accomplished without NATO partners and you're doing this world historical thing that nobody had ever thought possible, then why not double down and say again to NATO, yeah, we're considering walking out on the alliance. I don't know there's. There anything to say other than this is one of the most irresponsible things any presidential administration in American history has done?
- [29:09]
B
Yeah, I mean, the President's meeting with the Secretary General of NATO in person this afternoon, and Levitt previewed that. It's gonna be somewhat astonishing. Who knows what he's gonna say? I wrote in my newsletter this morning that I kind of consider the last 24 hours of presidential utterances to be in the running for, like, his most insane single day run of all time, across a couple different fronts with the genocide stuff into the CNN stuff I alluded to before, into the, well, maybe we'll actually also be pirates on the Strait of Hormuz alongside Iran, and that'll be a lot of fun. And you never know. I mean, like, he could be extending his streak with all this, depending what comes out of that meeting with. With the Secretary General today, you know, so I.
- [29:52]
A
You never have to hand it to Iran, I suppose, but I will hand it to Iran. I think they. They played their hand very well over the course of the last, like, two and a half months. They did miss one real great strategic opportunity. I think a lot could have been accomplished if they had said, sir, sir, with tears in their eyes. These mullahs, these big, tough mullahs, you may not like them, but they're very tough. They said, sir, we propose charging a $2 million toll on every ship that comes through the Strait of Hormuz with 1 million going to us and 1 million going to your board of peace. I think Trump would have found that absolutely irresistible. And I'm kidding, sort of. But also, I'm not like, after what we've just witnessed, the utter fecklessness of the last 40 days. If something like that had happened, which sounds like something from Veep, like dark Veep, feels to me like our president would have had to have been really strong armed out of that. Even Benjamin Netanyahu and the head of the Mossad might have had a hard time getting him out of that one. Okay, Andrew, thanks for joining me. We've got so much more clarity on this tremendous victory that America has won. The victory so good that we're all praying we never have to have it again. I did think to myself today, Andrew, I don't know if you remember that early on in the Trump campaign, he had a line about how, you know, we're gonna be so much winning that people are going to come up to me and they're going to be begging me to lose because they'll be sick and tired of all the winning.
- [31:40]
B
So tired of winning.
- [31:41]
A
Yeah, I guess America was so sick and tired of winning that he finally decided to give us a clear loss. Thanks, Mr. President. Everybody else, hit, like, hit. Subscribe, follow the channel. We'll be back more and soon, or maybe soon with more. Who can say we're doing it live. Good luck, America.