Bulwark Takes — "BREAKING: Massive Oil Price Increases"
Date: March 9, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Jonathan Vlass (JVL)
Episode Overview
This urgent episode unpacks the chaos in global oil markets, with crude prices spiking sharply past $100 a barrel in the wake of the Trump administration’s war with Iran and ensuing disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Tim Miller and Jonathan Vlass deliver real-time reactions, historical comparisons, and sharp political commentary on what they deem one of the most “politically stupid and risky” moves by an American administration in modern memory. They explore economic ramifications, market chaos, and the dangerously unpredictable logic of Trump’s foreign policy, mixing granular analysis with Bulwark’s signature wit and exasperation.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Shocking Spike in Oil Prices
- Visual Chart Gag: Tim describes the futures chart as a “full erection ... full tent in one second” after the market opens (01:10).
- Prices leapt from $90 to over $111 a barrel before settling around $106 by episode time.
- Both hosts emphasize the outsized impact on gas prices, supply chains, and inflation:
- “Everything starts to go up. Everybody starts to feel pain.” — Tim Miller (06:20)
- “We’re now looking at like 20 million barrels per day shut off.” — JVL (13:40)
2. Immediate Causes: War with Iran, Strait of Hormuz Blockage
- War with Iran disrupts vital oil shipping lanes.
- Miller and Vlass highlight the unintended consequences:
- Disrupted supply chains lead to refinery bottlenecks, raising prices globally.
- Maritime insurance withdrawals effectively halt oil transport, even if the strait isn’t physically mined. (08:04–09:40)
- JVL: “Nobody in this operation said... Insurers decide they can’t shoulder that risk, then it might as well be mined. Right, Tim, it’s the dumbest fucking thing I’ve ever seen in my life.” (09:50)
- Historical comparison to the Iranian Revolution, but with much larger volumes now at risk. (13:34 onward)
3. Political Fallout and Trump’s Calculations
- Trump and his team, echoing “small price to pay for world safety and peace,” attempt to spin soaring prices as necessary for security. (01:45, 05:00)
- Ritter: “Is world peace the object, our objective right now? I thought we weren’t going to be the world’s police.” — Tim Miller (05:14)
- JVL: “Having a hostile Congress does slightly endanger Trump ... What if this is all part and parcel with establishing preconditions for an emergency?” (22:03–22:41)
- Speculation Trump is “on tilt” (19:10), doubling down due to overconfidence after a string of abrasive decisions — “the actions of a madman.”
4. Kitchen Table Economics & Public Impact
- Exploding gas prices compared to the “avian flu” egg price surge — and America’s irrational electoral reactions (04:00–04:49).
- “It’s a real kitchen table issue.” — Jonathan Vlass (04:49)
- Notably, Nate Silver projects a 40%+ surge in gas, possibly up to $5/gallon, warning the pain will last weeks. (07:40)
5. Who’s Really in Charge? U.S.–Israel Dynamics
- Assertions that, in the Iran war, Israel calls the shots:
- “Tim, seems like the senior partner to me is Israel.” — JVL (11:08)
- Both highlight Trump’s deference to Netanyahu, with JVL puzzled by Trump’s seeming indifference to not getting his ‘taste’.
6. Commodities Market Realities
- JVL explains U.S. “energy independence” is a myth in the context of global commodities:
- “If you are an American oil producer and the price of oil is $106 everywhere else, you are not going to sell it to American customers for $60 ... That’s how commodities prices work.” (14:20)
- American production doesn’t insulate from global price shocks; prices here track global events.
7. Historical Parallels: Oil Shocks and Geopolitical Stupidity
- The aftermath of previous oil crises — Iranian Revolution, Iran-Iraq War, 2022 spike after Covid and Russia/Ukraine — all cited as context.
- JVL: “This is the most incompetent governance I’ve ever seen in my life.” (14:51)
- SNL reference: “You guys are playing chess, we’re playing Grand Theft Auto.” (15:38)
8. Lack of Clear Endgame
- Both hosts bemoan the lack of an exit strategy or even Trump’s typical pattern of declaring victory and walking away (17:53).
- “I just don’t understand why he wouldn’t do that. That’s the Trumpian way.” — JVL (33:27)
- Instead, escalation continues, with Israel pursuing further targets and the administration aiming for outright control of oil infrastructure in the Gulf (27:10).
9. Future Risks: Political and Security
- Will Trump try to use the chaos to set up “emergency” conditions for the coming election? (22:41–24:07)
- Discussion of possible spillover, including embassies evacuating (39:30) and fears of domestic terror attacks. (40:24–40:26)
- Miller: “If you had to have a threat meter for likelihood of World War III, the needle’s moved up quite a bit more in the last week ...” (40:32)
10. Political Schadenfreude & Final Thoughts
- Fluctuating fortunes for MAGA figures:
- J.D. Vance (potentially cornered as the supposed “nationalist”) and Maria Machado (Venezuelan democracy figure) are debated as political winners/losers (35:11–48:09).
- JVL sums up: “Live not by lies. Baby boom.” (49:59)
- Tim’s tongue-in-cheek sign-off: “Go get gas right now ... It’s going to cost more tomorrow.” (51:00)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Market Shock:
- “It’s like a full erection ... a full tent in one second.” — Tim Miller (01:21)
- On Strategic Failure:
- “Nobody in this operation said, actually sir, excuse me ... insurers decide they can’t shoulder that risk, then it might as well be mined ... Dumbest fucking thing I’ve ever seen in my life.” — JVL (09:54)
- On Political Blunders:
- “This is fucking stupider than even I expected ... He’s managed to do something that is below what my expectations for TDS are.” — Tim Miller (20:24)
- On America First Ironies:
- “We’re looking at this through an America First lens ... If you look at this through a video game lens ... we’re crushing them on explosion maxing.” — Tim Miller (27:06)
- On Popular Reaction:
- “It’s the most important thing ever. And I just think that ... who knows what people might be willing to do looking at a chart like this, because it’s a real kitchen table issue.” — JVL (04:49)
- On Future Risks:
- “Think about what happens if there is a domestic terror attack here.” — JVL (40:24)
- On Policy Folly:
- “This is a man-made catastrophe. Trump literally did this.” — JVL (43:44)
Key Timestamps
- 01:10: First reactions to the live spike in oil prices.
- 03:45: Trump’s statement and hosts’ skepticism.
- 06:05–07:40: Explaining oil markets; Nate Silver’s warning.
- 09:54: Maritime insurance dilemma.
- 13:34–15:22: Historical perspective; “incompetent governance.”
- 19:01–21:45: Trump’s “hot gambler” mentality and hosts’ disbelief.
- 22:41: Speculation about manufacturing chaos before midterms.
- 27:10–29:50: Discussion of seizing and securing shipping lanes.
- 33:27: Why not declare victory? JVL questions Trump’s strategy.
- 35:11–38:48: Political fallout for MAGA figures.
- 40:24: Threats escalate — embassies evacuate, terrorism fears rise.
- 43:44–44:17: Price shock is reversible if the war ends — “man-made catastrophe.”
- 46:41–48:09: Venezuela digression and the limits of realpolitik.
- 51:00: Tim’s sign-off & practical advice: “Go get gas ...”
Tone & Style
- Political exasperation mixed with dark humor and granular real-time analysis.
- Conversational, fast-paced, at times profane — “the dumbest fucking thing I’ve ever seen in my life.”
- Both hosts speak frankly about the deep risk and chaos they see, punctuated by historical context and mockery of administration defenses.
- Frequent use of analogies — markets as video games, economy as kitchen table issues.
For Listeners Who Missed It:
You’ll walk away understanding:
- Why the oil price spike happened and why it matters immediately for your wallet.
- How global logistics and insurance, not just bombs or blockades, drive energy prices.
- Why this could be a defining political disaster, and why the hosts think it is self-inflicted.
- The skepticism — and at times, outright disbelief — among Trump-skeptical conservatives at the administration’s logic, strategy, and lack of an exit ramp.
- How the chaos could impact elections, America’s global standing, and even everyday political debates ("kitchen table issues").
Final Note:
Hosts made clear: This oil shock is a policy choice, not an inevitable crisis. How—and if—it ends is, for now, in the hands of deeply unpredictable leadership.