Loading summary
Transcript28 lines
- [00:01]
McDonald's Advertiser
All new drinks are now at McDonald's with refreshers like the Strawberry Watermelon Refresher and the Mango Pineapple Refresher with popping Boba. To crafted sodas like the Sprite Berry Blast with berry flavors and cold foam. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire six. All new drinks are here now at McDonald's.
- [00:28]
Jonathan Cohn
Refreshers contain caffeine.
- [00:30]
Capella University Narrator
You've never been one to settle, stand down or stand still. You're a lifelong learner, energized by excellence. There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. You've got competition to outrun, momentum to build on, and your own high standards to meet. Stop now. Not a chance. At Capella University, we help you catch what you're chasing because you've always had the drive. Now go earn the degree. Capella University. What can't you do? Visit Capella. Edu to learn more.
- [01:00]
Will Saletan
Hey, everybody, it's Will Saletan from the Bulwark. I'm here with my colleague Jonathan Cohn, who is our house expert in. Let's see, Healthcare, baseball, Michigan. Am I leaving a few things out
- [01:14]
Jonathan Cohn
there, dad, music, Billy Joel, things like that.
- [01:17]
Will Saletan
We'll do that video later today. We gotta do Michigan. We gotta do Michigan because Mallory McMorrow, one of the Democratic candidates in the Senate race in Michigan, has dropped out. First of all, Jonathan set the table for us. Cause this used to be a three candidate race, is that right? And now it's down to two. What's going on?
- [01:38]
Jonathan Cohn
That's right. So the Michigan Senate race is one of the key. I mean, every Senate race is important when you're trying to get the majority in such a close call. Michigan has been a state where you've had two Democratic senators going back basically, you know, since 2000 or 98. One of the incumbent Democrats, Gary Peters, announced he was retiring. Three Democrats announced they were vying for it. One was Hailey Stevens, who is a congresswoman from the northern Detroit suburbs. She's been in Congress since 2018. Abdul El Sayed, who is former public health director for the city of Detroit in Wayne county, which includes Detroit. And then Mallory McMurraw, who has been a state senator since 2018. You know, the basic lay of the land. The easiest way to think of it was that, you know, Abdul is a Bernie Sanders endorsed aoc, endorsed progressive. His slogans are money in your pockets, money out of politics, Medicare for all. Haley Stevens is a classic Michigan workhorse member of Congress. She works for the union, she works for the civil rights group. She is the, you know, listens to every constituency, goes to Washington, finds deals. She plays legislative small ball, has been thought of as very effective by that, but very much a part of the establishment. And then Mallory McMurraw, kind of in between the sort of middle of the road candidate. She is a progressive, identifies as progressive, first became famous for a floor speech she gave pushing back at some of the attacks on LGBTQ kids. And she was accused of grooming, supporting groomers. And she fought back in a very powerful, passionate, effective speech that got play all over the country. But she's also, you know, she's part of the state Democratic Party leadership in Lansing. You know, the way I tended to think was partly there was an ideological difference there. She was kind of in the middle. So, you know, someone who was going to said she was going to push hard for universal health care, truly universal health care, but not go all the way to Medicare for all, really sort of add a public option to what we have now, as opposed to Abdul El Sayed, who was going to have full Medicare for all, for example. But at the same time, somebody who. Who was, you know, was not the establishment either. She very. When she first started her race, one of the first things she said was, I don't think Chuck Schumer should continue as Senate Majority Leader. So she had that middle of the road, both in terms of ideology and also style. You know, if Abdul, and we all call them by their first names, they're all real young. You know, if Abdul was the guy tearing down the system and Haley was the one working within the system, Mallory was the one trying to stretch the system and take what she could get. But, you know, that middle of the road, it's a hard place to be and turned out to be not that big.
- [04:25]
Will Saletan
Well, in Texas, we say there's nothing in the middle of the road but dead armadillos.
- [04:29]
Jonathan Cohn
Right.
- [04:29]
Will Saletan
So what you've described sounds like McMorrow was the candidate in the middle. So there was a candidate. Stevens is sort of the candidate of the establishment. El Sayed as the candidate of the outsider candidate from the left, although a former public health official, I think. So what happens now? Because the reason I'm asking is leading up to this decision, there was a lot of pressure on McMurraw to drop out. Coming from people who wanted to stop El Sayed, who was leading in the polls. Is this a move to stop El Sayed?
- [05:03]
Jonathan Cohn
I don't know the full backstory. You know, there's rumors, certainly there was a lot of pressure on McMarrow to drop out because she had fallen behind in the polls, all the polls. There were some crappy polls out there, but even the good polls showed her falling behind. And there was pressure. There was one sign of this was Gary Peters, the retiring senator, who has said he was not gonna endorse anybody officially, but the Wall Street Journal reported, presumably with his approval, that he had been telling people inside the party, mcmorrow needs to drop out. So there was definitely, I think, a sense from a lot of Stephens supporters that if McMurra was not in the race, then that support would go to Stevens. And I would assume they had some polling, some internal polling to suggest that. I will just say I've talked to a lot of the political strategists in Michigan. I am not that convinced that's true. I think this is. McMurra was pulling from both sides, again, because she had characteristics of both sides. There were definitely some people who liked McMarrow because she was such a visible fighter and she was so charismatic and energetic and she felt like a breath of fresh air. So I don't think it's a given. Her support goes overwhelmingly or even towards Stevens. It might be. We'll see. I just think there's a lot of people talking very confidently about where her supporters go. We'll see. I don't think that's a given, personally.
- [06:28]
Will Saletan
I think that they should listen to you, all these people in Michigan, because I believe you are wearing, do I see correctly, a Michigan National Championships sweatshirt. T shirt.
- [06:37]
Jonathan Cohn
Yeah, I am. I am. I forgot to button my shirt. So, yes, you.
- [06:43]
Will Saletan
It's. It's very authentic. We can trust you on this. Let me ask you about McMorrow. So far as we record this, has not endorsed anyone. She, in particular, if anyone thought she was going to endorse Haley Stevens, she has not done that. I don't know what she wants to do, but I kind of wonder whether if she thought about doing it, there's a reason not to do so. Which is, if I Recall correctly, previously, McMorrow confronted or challenged El Sayed about some of his position, some of the stuff he has said that she thought was incendiary and it backfired. Is that correct? And that therefore, if she were to endorse Stevens, that might backfire too, and consolidate support behind El Sayed.
- [07:23]
Jonathan Cohn
I like how your brain is cycling through 4th and 5th order effects here and absolutely correct to do so because there's all kinds of permutations going on. I don't know. I mean, it has been remarkable. There have Been a number of attacks lodged at El Sayed this campaign on, you know, he changed his position here, allegedly, you know, or, you know, his, you know, there was a big thing about the fact that, you know, this may be the one you were thinking of, the near, you know, an attack that McMarrow endorsed, which was, you know, he is a doctor, he has a medical degree, but he also has a PhD in epidemiology and became public health director. He's never, you know, except when he was in medical school. He's not been a practicing physician. And he has sometimes described himself as a physician or he's used the word a few, you know, and some people said he's lying. He's talking like he's, you know, taking care of patients. He really isn't. He's just the public health director. Well, number one, he did go to medical school. I mean, he completed medical school, you know, and he is and has been in the business of, you know, overseeing health care for people and actually overseeing health care for poor people, a lot of them in Detroit helping, you know, kids to get eyeglasses and such. Now, exactly what he did is his actual record in office, I think, is an interesting topic to explore. What he did get done, what he didn't get done has, you know, there have been. He's made some boasts that maybe don't quite, you know, he said, you know, we got so many millions of dollars and it was only. Some of it's been spent already. But, you know, at the end of the day, if, you know, if you're going to attack someone for, you know, inflating their credentials because allegedly they say they're a doctor and they are a doctor. It just turns out they're not seeing patients. Instead, they're getting health care to the city of Detroit. I mean, that's not really a good attack. I mean, that's not like, you know, we had an episode like this. Will you probably remember, when the embattled and eventually withdrawn surgeon general nominee from Trump, who was someone who dropped out of residency and really wasn't seeing patients anymore and was just, you know, had become an influencer. Now, that's a good attack. That's not a person who's got experience delivering healthcare. But, you know, I mean, I'll say it's been doing healthcare. So, yeah, I think there's a. It's possible, you know, if she endorses. There is already a perception out there that this is the establishment ganging up on El Sayed. So I don't know if she endorses Haley Stevens. If that just gets people more riled up.
- [09:48]
Will Saletan
The issue that I was thinking of in particular was El Sayed defending, campaigning with and defending Hassan Piker, who has spoken, obviously is perceived as too pro Hamas. Michigan is just a minefield because of Jews, Muslims, a combination of constituencies in that primary. But in particular, I think didn't it backfire and help El Sayed? When McMorrow criticized El Sayed for not renouncing or distancing herself from Hasan Piker
- [10:24]
Jonathan Cohn
and his comments, I think if you'd asked political professionals in Michigan, they'd all say yes. I think the following things, there are two parts of that that I think are absolutely true. There's a little bit of a step in that that I kind of, I wonder about sometimes, which is, first of all, if you think of as a lot of us, a lot of people are, and I forget who coined this phrase, but if you think of campaigns as like the most valuable commodity being attention. Right early on, the Piker thing was a win for Abdul Al Said because he got all this attention. He was the focus. Everyone was like, oh, who is this guy? What's going on? You know, I think for these sort of progressives in the race, the younger progressives, a lot of listen to Hasan Piker. They're like, great, we love this guy. And that really soured them on McMurrow who, you know, again, if you're in the middle of the road, you're going to have to pull from both camps. That poisoned her, I think, with a lot of that bass.
- [11:16]
McDonald's Advertiser
All new drinks are now at McDonald's with refreshers like the Strawberry Watermelon Refresher and the Mango Pineapple Refresher with popping Boba. To crafted sodas like the Sprite Berry Blast with berry flavors and cold foam. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire six. All new drinks are here now at McDonald's.
- [11:43]
Jonathan Cohn
Refreshers contain caffeine. Part of that is in a two way race where she basically get. Because there are a lot of people who are very offended, upset by Hasan Piker. And remember, it's not just what he said about Hamas. It's things he's, you know, there's a whole list of things he said that could offend any number of groups. If she had been able to get all of that vote, then yes. I mean, problem was she's got Haley Stevens there who I think became the natural receptacle for those in part because of, you know, other reasons.
- [12:13]
Will Saletan
The argument for trying to stop El sayed is that he is the most likely candidate on the Democratic side to lose the general election to the Republican nominee. Who we think is the former Congressman Mike Rogers. Is that true? Is he the least electable candidate? Is he a danger to Democrats holding that seat?
- [12:32]
Jonathan Cohn
First thing that I would say is who knows, right? I mean that's not a knowable fact. That is, you know, everyone who's talking about this is predicting. You know, that has been the assumption, I think of most political professionals. If you look at the head to head polling right now, he's actually does better in most of the head to head polling than Stevens. It's a small difference though and it's hard to disaggregate that from things like name recognition and momentum. My thinking on this is, I mean I did a piece at one point where I said here's the case for why he can win and here's the case for why he can't win. And you can construct arguments either way you look at Stevens, especially if you're now in a two way race. Both Stevens and this was true of McMorran also had one in red districts. They'd shown the ability to reach sort of broader audience. He's got lots of positions that are going to be hard, that are going to be difficult sells with sort of swing voters in Michigan and we haven't even heard about all of them. I mean these are not all. A lot of the vulnerabilities that he has with more conservative voters are simply not going to come out in a Democratic primary because Democrats aren't going to make these accusations. It'll wait till the general election and then Mike Rogers, who is the likely Republican nominee will then make these arguments. You know, the flip side I would say is we are. This country is in an ordinary mood right now. Mike Rogers again, the likely Republican nominee, I mean he is a kind of. He is straight from central casting. A guy who was a Republican member of Congress who then made a lot of money in the private sector and wasn't lobbying. But it wasn't exactly. It was sort of lobbying. A lot of the work was lobbying adjacent. He was in Florida for a long time, then moved back here. He's got a record of voting for things like taking away health care from people. It would I think be. And Abdul El Sayed is pretty well positioned to make those arguments better than almost anyone because he could say, look, I'm not part of this establishment, I'm from outside this establishment. I don't take corporate money. I'm the guy who wants to give you health care. Look, I've spent my whole life giving people health care. That's not a bad pitch. You know, put a gun to my head. Is he the riskier candidate? I think probably, you know, but I don't feel that confident in that. And this is such a volatile year. I mean, I always tend to, you know me, I tend to be real hesitant to make predictions about who's going to win, who's not or whatever. I think maybe there's some ambiguity there.
- [14:55]
Will Saletan
Talk to me about the fear factor within the various constituencies in the Democratic primary. So specifically, there are probably a lot of Jews who are, to some degree or another anxious about El Sayed, partly over the Hamas stuff and I'm not sure what else. There are probably a lot of Muslims. For people who don't know, Muslims are a significant part of the Democratic constituency in Michigan who might maybe anxious about Haley Stevens and about the money that AIPAC has put into the race and what that would mean. How big is the fear factor on each side, respectively?
- [15:29]
Jonathan Cohn
They're huge on both sides. I think there are a lot of Jewish voters who will see Abdul Al Sayed. They know they will listen. They will see him campaigning with Piker and again campaigning with Piker. This isn't he didn't just go on Piker's show, he campaigned with Piker. He brought him in to endorse him. Now Al Sayed says, well, that's not my responsibility. I don't have to stand for everything he says. But, you know, the voters may not agree with that. They say, hey, you brought this guy in. That's signaling something. And he has been a critic of Israel for a long time, predating the, you know, all the most recent, the last few years since October 7, since the attacks on Gaza. So, you know, that is going to scare a lot of people. There are going to be a lot of Jewish voters who are going to hear that as anti Semitic and they are going to, you know, they are going to be wary. On the flip side, Haley Stevens, you know, the history here is not just that AIPAC is supporting her, but when she ran when Michigan a few years ago, we redrew our districts and she ended up in a campaign against Andy Levin, who was also an incumbent Democratic House member. And she went after him hard on Israel as she was the pro Israel candidate. She's got a very strong record of that. And I think among Arab Americans, I think Muslims, and, you know, a lot of them are going to hear that and think this is somebody who supports you know, the worst of what they have seen Israel do, who is not willing to sort of stand up to Netanyahu or stand up to Israel. And I think there is a lot of fear on both sides. Can either one of them, as the general election nominee make a, you know, kind of do outreach and overcome that? I don't know. I would think they would both try whether they could seize Aida. I don't know.
- [17:23]
Will Saletan
One of the things that I saw when I was looking at this race was that there was, it seemed to me there might be a split or some division within the left of the Democratic Party, which is to say that Bernie and AOC were behind El Sayed. And so he was. Even though, correct me if I'm wrong, he does not identify as a socialist, but he has Social Democrats, Democratic socialists behind him. But that Elizabeth Warren, Chris Murphy, some other folks who have strong progressive credentials were not with him, they were with, I think, McMorrow. Is there a division within the Democratic Party within Michigan and nationally around this race? Are there some people who are clearly progressive, liberal, prominent in the Democratic Party who just feel that El Sayed is too far out?
- [18:12]
Jonathan Cohn
I think so. I think so. I think you see that sort of, we all, you know, we saw a little bit of this with the Warren. I'm glad you brought up the split endorsement. There was Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. I think that says a lot about how McMurrah and El Sayed are different. Elizabeth Warren is, to be clear, one of the most progressive, left winning, left leaning members of the Democratic Party and in the Senate. But she is more of a kind of, you know, come up with, you know, a little bit more wonky, I think a little more kind of, I'm going to get this bill passed a little less about kind of working inside, finding ways to get her peoples into sort of key staff positions things, I mean, as she did with the Biden administration. Whereas Bernie is more about building a movement, building pressure from the outside. And I think that is very much how the Two of them, McMurrow and El Sayed saw their identity as different. You know, one thing that's really interesting, I've sort of, I followed it. I've been at a bunch of events that El Sayed has done. I think he always talks about, I feel like it hasn't gotten enough attention in the campaign coverage. He always says when people ask what he wants to do if he's in the Senate, one thing he always talks about is he's like, I don't want this. I'm not going to stop campaigning. He has a line. He will often say that I, you know, the minute I get in the Senate, I'm going to continue to sort of turn up the pressure. I want to, you know, I want to win over people in other states and build pressure from the outside to move the political conversation. And, and, you know, he's really very, he's got some pretty big. I mean, I think that's how he sees his role, which is different to me than Warren, who, again, very much, you know, in the broad scheme, very similar, trying to move the conversation to the left, but a little bit more of an inside game, a little bit more like take this win, you know, fiddle, you know, get this regulatory win, get this piece of legislation passed. It's a little bit different. And I do think that's a difference.
- [20:06]
Will Saletan
I'm trying to imagine a world where Abdul El Sayed wins this primary and then wins this seat, and he's in the United States. We have a Senator El Sayed. How does that change the dynamics of the Senate? What is it that he's bringing? I mean, you're telling me that he wants to keep campaigning. How does it change the national picture?
- [20:22]
Jonathan Cohn
Yeah, I think he does have more impact on the national picture than your typical Senate, you know, elected senator for a couple of reasons. First of all, he's, he's, he's going to be a groundbreaker, right? He would be the first Muslim senator in the United States Senate. That's a big deal. So it's going to get him some attention. If you have seen him, and I think even his critics would concede this, he is extremely charismatic. He's extremely sharp. I mean, he is a guy who is going to be on the list of booking producers right away. You'll see him on national tv and he wants to be there. I mean, I don't think there's any question of that. This guy has always had his eye. I mean, he's a very ambitious guy. Most politicians are. Most successful politicians are. And I do think, you know, I think again, I think he sees himself. He wants to be very much somebody in the mode of a Sanders of a aoc, someone who's, who's, who's helping to shape the conversation, naturally. Although I should say, I'll add one of the things I thought was really interesting. I asked him, you know, we did interviews with the three candidates and I asked him at the end, I didn't get to ask the other two candidates this, but I asked, I said, who do you want to be like, who are your models? And he said both Bernie and Warren he listed as models and then he said Obama was his third. So I don't really know what you make of that.
- [21:38]
Will Saletan
Jonathan, thanks for coming in on a holiday weekend. We dragged you in, but you're on a family visit and very kind of you to come in and help us out on this. Not every day you expect somebody to drop out in the center race. You're covering for those of you who don't know Jonathan's covering this race, Lauren Egan, who another one of our writers is covering this race. We got a lot of coverage. It's going to be a big deal as Jonathan's telling us. Everybody, if you're watching this, like, subscribe and we'll see you next time when you come. Come back and join us again when we're when we revisit these Senate RA.