BREAKING: Sen. Ernst OUT as GOP Struggles With Trump’s Grip on Party

Summary

Bulwark Takes Podcast Summary

Episode: BREAKING: Sen. Ernst OUT as GOP Struggles With Trump’s Grip on Party
Host(s): The Bulwark team (main speakers identified as B and C, likely Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, Bill Kristol, or others)
Date: August 29, 2025

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Overview

In this episode, the Bulwark team breaks down the breaking political news that Iowa Republican Senator Joni Ernst is reportedly not seeking reelection, joining a growing list of GOP lawmakers stepping down. The discussion examines the implications for the GOP, the party's ongoing struggles with Donald Trump's influence, the dynamics of upcoming primaries, the prospects for Democrats in Iowa, and what this means for the broader political landscape leading into 2026.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ernst’s Exit Signals GOP Turmoil

[00:30 – 01:12]

• Senator Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek reelection is described as a blow to the GOP, adding her to a list of withdrawing figures like Thom Tillis, Mitch McConnell, and Tommy Tuberville.

• Hosts debate whether her leaving offers hope for Democrats in an increasingly competitive Iowa.

  B: "She is not going to be seeking reelection in 2026. This adds her to a fairly long list... Sarah, is this cause for hope?" [00:30]

2. The Changing Landscape in Iowa

[01:12 – 02:41]

• Democrats recently flipped a Trump +11 seat in a special election, breaking the Republican "stranglehold" on Iowa's legislature.

• Ernst’s withdrawal possibly stems from the fear of losing her seat in a political environment that increasingly favors Trump or motivates only Trump-aligned turnout, not boosting the rest of the ticket.

  C: "If you're Ernst and you're running in an off year...Donald Trump turns people out for him and not for the rest of the party." [01:36]

• Several prominent Democrats are already in the race, indicating a competitive primary, including Zach Walls and Josh Turek.

3. Humiliation and the Hegseth Factor

[02:41 – 03:23]

• Ernst’s recent "humiliation," particularly being passed over for Pete Hegseth, has impacted her political calculus.

• Her controversial comment defending Medicaid cuts — “everybody dies” — is seen as damaging and perhaps pivotal in her decision.

  B: “She did say everybody dies when defending cuts to Medicaid…that’s the kind of thing that either you don’t say if you’re serious about running again…” [02:55]

4. Retirements as “Market Signals” for GOP Health

[03:23 – 04:27]

• Retirements are described as "market signals," like animals fleeing ahead of a disaster: the politicians closest to the action sensing a coming collapse.

• Despite bad numbers for Republicans, the hosts note that general unpopularity of Democrats can mask the severity of the GOP’s weakening position.

  B: “You see retirements like this whenever the people who are closest to it with the most skin in the game start feeling those seismic waves, right?” [03:24]

5. GOP Primary Dilemmas & Trumpification

[04:47 – 07:10]

• “Normie” Republicans are staying out of races, fearing both defending Trump and the risk of losing; high-quality candidates aren't entering primaries.

• Any GOP candidate for Ernst’s seat will now have to “tie themselves to Trump” even more; parallels are drawn to Steve King, infamous for bigoted comments, who is described as someone who could easily win a GOP primary in Iowa now.

  B: "In order to win the nomination in a state like Iowa, you're going to basically have to be Steve King." [06:13]

• Discussion about Iowa’s political evolution; it’s red, but not impossibly so, and Democrats can win under the right circumstances.

6. Joni Ernst’s Psychological Calculus

[07:50 – 08:57]

• Hosts question why Ernst continued to compromise her principles. The consensus: she anticipated career advancement (e.g., the Hegseth job) that never materialized.

• Her attempts to balance the Trump and traditional GOP factions ultimately left her without a political base.

  B: “If you were Joni Ernst and you were gonna leave anyway, why did you bother humiliating yourself over the last six years?” [07:50]

  C: "I think she thought she was gonna get Hegseth's job." [08:31]

7. The “Net Negative” of Moderate GOP Holdouts

[08:57 – 10:04]

• Moderates like Ernst and Susan Collins are described as “worse than useless” because their lingering presence gives the GOP undeserved credibility as a ‘normal’ party—hosts argue for a “pure MAGA treatment” to force the party’s true nature into the open.

  C: “There was a period of time where having people who were willing to stand up to Trump on the Republican side was deeply important. But...they became a net negative…” [09:19]

8. 2026: Could Democrats Win Both Houses?

[10:04 – 11:46]

• Entertains the possibility — once unimaginable — that Democrats could flip both chambers of Congress in 2026. This is linked directly to Trump’s effect on turnout, which is strong for himself but doesn’t translate to GOP down-ballot strength.

  B: "What if Democrats captured both houses of Congress in 2026? ...I would have a very different feeling about the future prospects of America..." [10:04]

  C: "More and more it looks like Senate is in play." [11:45]

9. Tone: Candid, Hopeful — and Unsparing

[11:46 – End]

• The hosts stress their commitment to honest analysis, both good and bad:

  B: "...we just try to call it like we see it...when good things happen, we're here to tell you. Joni Ernst, get the F out of here. America's done with you." [11:46]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On retirements as warning signs:
  “You see retirements like this whenever the people who are closest to it with the most skin in the game start feeling those seismic waves, right? It’s like when...the birds all start flying and the animals start moving inland, going to high ground. You're like, huh, everything looks fine. Wonder what they're all freaked out about.” — B [03:24]

• On Steve King’s chances in a Trumpified GOP:
  “In order to win the nomination in a state like Iowa, you're going to basically have to be Steve King...If Steve King wanted this nomination, don’t you think he would win it?” — B [06:13]

• On the character of the remaining moderates:
  “When they [GOP moderates] basically stopped standing up to Trump or only did it when...it wouldn't actually matter, which is what Susan Collins does, they became a net negative...It gives the party some cover to be like, see, look at these normal Republicans who are still in there.” — C [09:19]

• On what a Democratic sweep would mean:
  “What if Democrats captured both houses of Congress in 2026? ...I would have a very different feeling about the future prospects of America.” — B [10:04]

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Important Timestamps

• 00:30: Introduction of breaking news: Joni Ernst not seeking reelection
• 01:36: Discussion on why Ernst and others are leaving
• 02:41: Implications for Democratic competition in Iowa
• 03:23: Retirements as indicators of underlying party weakness
• 06:13: Analysis of the extreme directions of Iowa GOP primaries
• 07:50: Psychological deep-dive: Ernst’s motivations and missed opportunities
• 09:19: The negative impact of “moderate” Republicans
• 10:04: Exploring the real possibility of a Democratic Senate and House
• 11:46: Episode wrap-up with a note on the Bulwark’s honest approach

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Takeaway

This episode delivers both a sharp critique of the GOP’s ongoing struggles with Trump’s dominance and a concrete sense that party dynamics—especially in the Midwest—are shifting. The Bulwark team frames Ernst’s departure as a “market signal" of deep vulnerability within the Republican establishment; they see opportunity for Democrats, but warn that the party’s success hinges on dynamics still in flux. The tone is blunt and unsentimental: the era of the “moderate” Republican, they argue, is over, and the coming primaries will force all candidates into Trump’s mold—with unpredictable consequences.

Transcript

[A]

How do you make an Airbnb a vrbo. Picture a vacation rental with a host. The host is dragging your family on a tour of the kitchen, the bathroom, the upstairs bathroom, the downstairs bedroom and the TV room, which surprise, is where you can watch tv. Now imagine there's no host giving you a tour because there's never any hosts at all, ever. Voila, you've got yourself a vrbo. Want a vacation that's completely and totally host free? Make it a vrbox.

[B]

Republican Senator Joanie Ernst of Iowa, the principled, principled conservative who was really not going to bend the knee to Trump and was going to hold Pete Hegseth to account and all that stuff. She's one of the good Republicans, Sarah. She is not going to be seeking reelection in 2026. This adds her to a fairly long list. Thom Tillis, Mitch McConnell, who's the idiot football coach in Alabama, of Tuberville, who are not going to be running. And we already have a whole list of Democrats who had thrown their hats in the ring to run against Senator Ernst. Sarah, is this cause for hope?

[C]

It's pretty interesting. It is pretty interesting for Iowa. Now there's a couple things happening in succession here, not only now. First of all, she has not confirmed that she is dropping out. We should just be clear. But there are reports she's told people whatever she says she's going to announce it next week. But this comes on the heels of Democrats breaking the Republicans stranglehold on the state legislature.

[B]

Happened by flipping.

[C]

Yeah, it happened this week where they flipped. It was kind of, it got some attention, but not a ton. But it was a Trump +11 seat in a special election. Democrats won. Now, if you're Ernst and you're running in an off year, and I think people are pretty aware at this point that Donald Trump turns people out for him and not for the rest of the party. And so I think she's pretty worried that she was going to lose, but she also, I think was not looking forward to running. So a and then you look at the number of Democrats in the field, which mean people thought they could win, right? You got Zach Walls, who I remember from back in the day because he has two lesbian moms and he testified as like a college student in favor of gay marriage and has subsequently stayed involved in politics. But there's a bunch of other people running.

[B]

Josh Turek, who was just interviewed in the last 24 hours by our own Lauren Egan, you can see that on the channel. Ding, ding, ding, which means there's going.

[C]

To be A robust Democratic primary and then. But I think Ernst, too, was worried about the humiliation that she suffered with being passed over for Hegseth, don't you think?

[B]

I mean, she did say everybody dies when defending cuts to Medicaid.

[C]

People are not.

[B]

Well, we all are going to die. Sad, for heaven sakes. I mean, it feels like that's the kind of thing that either you don't say if you're serious about running again, or, you know, or you say it. Once you say it, you're like, crap. I will have to hear that a thousand times a day, every day for six months if I run again.

[C]

Yes.

[B]

And there's more dignity in liberty. So if she leaves early and Dems flip that seat, she still has a future, Right? She could run for governor. She could do anything. Right. She could say, well, see, I was just. I would have held it. This is one of those things that we always talk about as market signals. And you see retirements like this whenever the people who are closest to it with the most skin in the game start feeling those seismic waves, right? It's. It's like when you're standing on the beach and all of a sudden the birds all start flying and the, you know, animals start moving inland, going to high ground. You're like, huh, everything looks fine. Wonder what they're all freaked out about. I wonder if this is like that. I mean, we've seen the. The congressional generic ballot numbers are pretty bad for Republicans already, which is something, right? It should be worse, but they should be worse. But in a weird way, I think a lot of this stuff is masked by the Democratic Party's general unpopularity.

[C]

It's true.

[B]

Which is just a real thing where people are like, no, I don't like the Democrats. But on the other hand, like, they're not in an election. People aren't going to be asked, do you like the Democrats? They're gonna. They're gonna be given a choice between a Republican who's gonna keep doing the inflation stuff and the military takeovers and all that, and this other person with a D next to their name.

[C]

It also, you know, it's an interesting. It is an interesting signal, both in terms of retirements and then also failure to recruit. You know, I just like normal people who can. Who could win in swinging. Your states aren't getting in, they're staying out because they either don't want to defend Trump or they don't want to have to go as far as they're going to need to go to get the Trumpy. People to turn out. Yeah. Or they think they're going to lose.

[B]

Well, think about this, right? I mean, Ernst, that seat now gets subjected to a primary. How well have normal, high quality Republican candidates been performing in red state primaries over the last six years?

[C]

Yeah. I mean, this is going to be so interesting to have had sort of the last remnant of Normie ish Republicans. At least people who ran to be Normie ish Republicans. I just remember Ernst's campaign that she eked out last time, six years ago, last time she was up because she ran ads in the suburbs that had no mention of Trump, did not have anything to Trump, and then in the redder areas ran stuff where she was like, yeah, Trump's my boy. But so she had to run a two tiered campaign in Iowa to be able to kind of keep that coalition together. And I don't think that, I don't think that was going to fly strategically. Again. Now she's got too much Trump all over.

[B]

Well, and also because the, whoever gets that nomination, nomination on the Republican side is going to have to really tie themselves to Trump. Right. So in order to win the nomination in a state like Iowa, you're going to basically have to be Steve King. And guys, remember Steve King. Yeah. Remember that guy?

[C]

He was anti Semitic. Before it was cool.

[B]

Before it was cool. Why couldn't he. Honestly, this is a crazy thing to. Why could. If Steve King wanted this nomination, don't you think he would win it?

[C]

I think he might. I think it is. I think he's one of the people that probably looks back. It's like people who retired over things like affairs or other things where they're.

[B]

Like an Al Franken type.

[C]

They're like, why would I do that? That is the culture. No one cares anymore about this stuff. He's probably like, was I racist and anti Semitic? Sure.

[B]

Did I say the 14 words? Sure.

[C]

Did I say, yeah, but you know what? The people want that I can win a Republican primary like that. Could he win a general?

[B]

Honestly.

[C]

But he could win a Republican primary.

[B]

You know what? I, I bet Steve King could win the Republican primary in 2026. I think he'd probably lose the. Generate the. In the general election, 2026, if the environment looks like it looks. And Iowa, I mean, Iowa has moved a little like, you know, Iowa's not as red, I don't think. I mean, it's still a very red state, but it's, it's not Oklahoma, you know.

[C]

No. Iowa is a place Barack Obama won.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Like once upon a time. So.

[B]

Kim, I don't know.

[C]

Their governor was this kind of a normie, like, secret normie. Now, because none of them are real normies, but can I ask a question.

[B]

About Joni Ernst, though? I would like to ask you a psychological question. If you were Journey Joni Ernst and you were gonna leave anyway, why did you bother humiliating yourself over the last six years?

[C]

Right.

[B]

The excuse is always, well, she's got a reelection to run. Why not just then stand up and do the things that you believe are right anyway, why vote for Pete Hegseth, Right?

[C]

Yeah. No, I bet she didn't decide to do this until the last six months till, like, the Hegseth.

[B]

I get that. But, like, how stupid do you have to be to say, like, I'm gonna make these compromises over and over and over?

[C]

I think she thought she was gonna get Hegseth's job.

[B]

Oh, you think that's what it was?

[C]

Yeah, for sure. She shortlisted. I mean, a woman with a military background who is relatively popular in her state, rides a motorcycle. You know, I think there was a. A sense that she had a future and what she knows now and what everybody else knows, that she does not have a future. Like, the Hegseth thing put the nail in that ambition.

[B]

But I'm looking forward to her defending Trump all the way to the end anyway, even though Manga has no use for her. Because that's the kicker, right? I mean, at the end of the day, people like Joni Ernst and like Susan Collins are useless. Useless isn't even the right word, right? Like, what is.

[C]

They're worse than useless now? They're worse than useless.

[B]

Yeah, because they actually provide.

[C]

And this is a thing that I. At some point, there was a period of time where having people who were willing to stand up to Trump on the Republican side was deeply important. But when they basically stopped doing that, or only did it when they could choreograph it so that they themselves could do it, but it wouldn't actually matter, which is what Susan Collins does. They became a net negative and have increasingly become so because it gives the party some cover to be like, see, look at these normal Republicans who are still in there. Like, no, be your purest, most distilled self. I don't want them to be able to hide behind Susan Collins or Mitt Romney and, like, give it. Like, give it the pure MAGA treatment and then let people decide.

[B]

All right, well, I'm going to let people go with a little piece of. Of Hopium. The one thing which I do not have on my bingo card or did not have on my bingo card, but is worth considering. What if Democrats captured both houses of Congress in 2026? Because I feel like at that point I would have a very different feeling about the future prospects of America in a way that just taking the House wouldn't.

[C]

That's right. Well, this is, I'm sorry, but this is a big part of my thesis is that Donald Trump is unique in that the turnout for just him. And we know this exists cuz in places like Wisconsin where he won, there's just like many people walked in there, voted for him and walked back out. That's why Tammy Baldwin's still a senator or people or there was crossover. But this is important. And just remember, no matter how much Trump says yes, he won the popular vote, not by that much. And he didn't. Yes, he won all the swing states, but not by that much. We're still in coin flip territory and Republicans do not know what to do after Trump because he, he has been running against them and the Republican Party the whole time. Kevin McCarthy can be so impressed by Donald Trump's turnout abilities. But Kevin McCarthy should remember he's not part of the party anymore. They kicked him out. They created the conditions necessary for their own distinction. Distinction extinction. And so yeah, I think Senate, I think Senate. I don't want to do hopium either. But more and more it looks like Senate is in play.

[B]

Possible, right? It's no longer an impossible to one chance. Like now it looks like, I don't know, there's a 1 in 10 chance Dems could flip the Senate. All right, guys, I can promise you that once every three or four months you will get a podcast like this, a video like this in which we have good news and we don't say, hey look, everything is terrible because that's what we do. We just speak the truth here. We don't shine you up. It's not like fight song stuff. We just try to call it like we see it. And it's also not doom scrolling either. You know, like when good things happen. We're here to tell you. Joni Ernst, get the F out of here. America's done with you. Follow the channel. Hit like hit. Subscribe. Good luck, America.