BREAKING: Strait of Hormuz is ALREADY Closed Again

Summary

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Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Episode: BREAKING: Strait of Hormuz is ALREADY Closed Again
Date: April 18, 2026
Host: Tim Miller (with co-analyst)
Notable Voices: Tim Miller, Episode Co-host, Ship Radio Operator, Donald Trump

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Overview

This special breaking episode of Bulwark Takes focuses on the rapidly escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz as it closes again within hours of U.S. President Donald Trump claiming a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran. The team dissects the fluid situation, provides real-time updates, and analyzes the conflicting public statements and their geopolitical implications. The episode highlights the fraught dynamics between the U.S., Iran, and Israel, explores internal power struggles in Iran, and discusses wider energy and security impacts.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strait of Hormuz Closure: Events Timeline

• The Strait, a crucial global oil chokepoint, is closed again (00:57).
• Iran fired on multiple commercial vessels early Saturday, impacting oil transit. Ships were turned around after being given clearance, demonstrating high confusion and volatility in communications (03:54).

Quote:
“The Strait of Hormuz is closed again.”
— Tim Miller (00:57)

2. Diplomatic Confusion and Contradictory Statements

• Less than 24 hours before the closure, President Trump had publicly claimed Iran agreed “never to close the strait again” (04:54).
• Trump and Iranian officials issued conflicting statements regarding deals, sea mine removal, and future guarantees for navigation (02:29–05:05).
• Iranian state media framed the U.S. blockade as “maritime piracy.”

Quote:
“Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to never close the strait again... The strait is closed right now.”
— Co-host (04:54–05:05)

3. Iranian Internal Power Struggles

• The Iranian foreign ministry puts out more conciliatory language, but hardliners, particularly the IRGC, appear to wield real control (06:31).
• This division undermines confidence in who U.S. negotiators are actually dealing with and whether any agreement can hold (06:35–07:34).

Insight:
“It’s hard to even know if the negotiations are with the people that will actually end up being in power... Some hard line thugs from the military might decide this is their moment.”
— Co-host (06:35–07:34)

4. International and Market Fallout

• Two Indian tankers carrying millions of barrels of Iraqi oil were among those fired upon (04:06).
• Analysts note “the most attacks on ships in the Strait... since the early days of the war” (09:02).
• The White House quietly renewed a waiver on Russian oil sanctions, indicating concern about global energy stability (10:12–10:55).

Quote:
“There are dozens of trapped ships trying to transit only to reverse course... Strait is still under Iranian control.”
— Co-host (11:11)

5. Trump’s Handling and Public Statements

• Trump is accused by analysts (including former Biden ambassador Dan Shapiro) of “trying to will” false narratives into reality by posting premature proclamations on social media (08:35).
• In a press appearance with Joe Rogan (on a separate topic), Trump downplays Iranian aggression (“they got a little cute”) and suggests the U.S. is taking a tough stand, but offers little substance or clarity (12:34–13:35).

Quote:
“He was a big friend and the advocate of the author of the Power of Positive Thinking... Sometimes he'll just be like, hey, this is going to happen and hope that he can will it into existence.”
— Tim Miller (05:18)

Quote:
“They wanted to close up the strait again, you know, as they've been doing for years. They can't blackmail us...”
— Donald Trump (12:34)

6. Media Handling and Public Perception

• Trump fielded only brief questions on the crisis, avoiding deeper press scrutiny (14:14–14:24).
• Tim Miller and the co-host suggest the administration is increasingly on the back foot, likely to make further concessions (14:33).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to never close the strait again... The strait is closed right now.”
  — Co-host (04:54–05:05)

• “State of Hormuz had not been closed for years... This is something that just happened this time because Donald Trump started a war of choice and didn’t think about the consequences.”
  — Tim Miller (13:47)

• Ship Radio Distress Call:
  “SEPA Navy, SEPA Navy, this is Mutaranga Herald. You gave me clearance to go... You are firing. Now let me turn back.”
  — Ship Radio Operator (03:54)

• “Trump spent all day posting things on Truth Social that had not been agreed to, trying to will them to be true by saying them publicly. This is a crazy way to do diplomacy on something this consequential.”
  — Dan Shapiro, quoted by co-host (08:36)

• “There's been total chaos in the Strait over the last 24 hours. There are dozens of trapped ships trying to transit only to reverse course.”
  — Gregory Brew, quoted by co-host (11:08)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:57–01:54: Announcement of Strait closure, initial facts
• 02:19–03:45: Details from Iran’s state media, attacks on ships
• 03:54: Ship radio operator distress call
• 04:17–05:18: Timeline of events/day’s diplomatic chaos
• 06:35–07:34: Analysis of Iranian power dynamics
• 08:35–09:02: Diplomacy critique; Dan Shapiro’s warning
• 10:10–10:55: White House’s backdoor Russian oil waiver
• 11:08–11:43: State of shipping/chaos in Strait
• 12:34–13:35: Trump’s Oval Office comments on crisis
• 14:14–14:33: Press cut-off; hosts’ conclusions

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Analysis & Tone

The episode’s tone is sharp, skeptical, and urgent, blending a newsy, analytical style with trademark Bulwark frankness and skepticism towards both Trump’s diplomatic approach and Iranian trustworthiness. The banter is informal but dense with expertise, making clear the hosts’ doubts regarding the viability of the administration’s strategies and the genuine instability now dominating the most critical oil transit corridor in the world.

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Conclusion

The Strait of Hormuz’s closure, coming hours after Trump’s proclamations of victory, is used by the Bulwark hosts to critique both U.S. and Iranian reliability, and to highlight the dangers of fantasy-based diplomacy in volatile regions. Ongoing internal rifts in Iran, U.S.-Israeli misalignment, and nervous market responses portend further instability and global impact. The team promises ongoing coverage as the situation evolves.

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Transcript

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[Tim Miller]

DEEP [e-mail] hey everybody, Tim Miller from the Bulwark here. Well that was fast. The Strait of Hormuz is closed again.

[Co-host or Analyst]

I'm taping this on Saturday morning. Obviously this is all a developing situation, but it looks like we're headed into a kind of Wayne's World style war on wore off situation and I don't think really anybody should be surprised. And when I was talking to Ben

[Tim Miller]

Rhodes about this yesterday, there were two

[Co-host or Analyst]

things that we flagged about what makes the situation not that stable. The first was Trump is not reliable. You can't trust what he's saying is actually what is in the deal.

[Tim Miller]

The counterparty Iran isn't particularly reliable. And then you also have our partner

[Co-host or Analyst]

in the war, Israel, who's strategic aims are misaligned. That has not come to a head this morning. But my guess is that it will at some point in the near future where Israel decides that they need to continue engaging in a battle, whether it be against Hezbollah in Lebanon or somewhere else. So I want to walk through what we know right now this morning. Top headline here is that the Strait of Hormuz is closed again. So that's where we're at. Donald Trump has spoken about that. We're going to play a little bit of that in a bit. But here are some of the logistics from fars.

[Tim Miller]

Iran's like basically state news agency. It's like maybe one tick more state media than Fox. They first reported the closure.

[Co-host or Analyst]

They cited that the Iranians are upset about the ongoing blockade from the United States, saying that the United States continues to engage in banditry and maritime piracy. It's a quote from the Iranian side. And they said this as long as the United States does not agree to the complete freedom of navigation for vessels. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain tightly controlled. And in its previous state, US Command said 23 ships had been turned around because of our blockade earlier this week. In addition to that dispute over which blockade counts over who's going to let ships through and who's going to send them back, which is a pretty key item. We also have reports that Iran was firing on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This morning. A US Defense official and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade official told Axios that there have been at least three attacks on commercial ships so far. On Saturday, the UK MTO had reported two attacks, so at least a couple of them, at least one ship was hit and would cause some damage. There are some audio recordings that Axios has listened to that indicate that at least one of the ships was given clearance to enter the straight, then was fired upon, prompting the dispatcher to say they are turning around.

[Ship Radio Operator]

SEPA Navy, SEPA Navy, this is Mutaranga Herald. You gave me clearance to go. My name second on your list. You gave me clearance to go. You are firing. Now let me turn back.

[Co-host or Analyst]

Two of the ships fired upon were Indian vessels carrying a couple million barrels of Iraqi oil. So that is from Donna Khfeiffer and Barack Rabid over at Axios.

[Tim Miller]

So I want to run through a couple of my bookmarks. I've been bookmarking tweets all morning trying

[Co-host or Analyst]

to figure out what is happening. This is kind of a good timeline breakdown from the Kobsi letter yesterday. It's being Friday. 8:45am Iran's foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz was completely open for all commercial vessels.

[Tim Miller]

9:06 President Trump thanked Iran for opening the strait.

[Co-host or Analyst]

Then at 10, Trump and Iran said the US are working together to remove all mines from the strait. Then Trump between 10:40 and noon said

[Tim Miller]

Iran agreed to never close the strait again. That was the President's announcement. Yes. Like less than 24 hours ago, Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to never close the strait again.

[Co-host or Analyst]

The strait is closed right now.

[Tim Miller]

So his claim was eternity, free seas for eternity. Seventeen hours later, Iran is firing on

[Co-host or Analyst]

ships of the Strait of Hormuz and saying that it's closed again. So a little off base on that prediction and commitment from the president later yesterday evening, Friday evening, that Iran speaker of the Parliament said Trump had made a bunch of claims that were false. And then the following morning, here Saturday morning, we have the straight being closed again. So that's the state of play behind the scenes. You're seeing that Trump's strategy of just like making a bunch of claims, hoping that they come to fruition. He was a big friend and the advocate of the author of the Power of Positive Thinking that Trump does do that. Sometimes he'll just be like, hey, this is going to happen and hope that he can will it into existence because he sees himself as kind of a demigod. And that isn't really working on the Iranian side because they have specific needs.

[Tim Miller]

Another thing that's interesting, I've seen some scuttlebutt about this and we'll be bringing

[Co-host or Analyst]

in, I know obviously always on Sunday

[Tim Miller]

with the Bill Kristol Live. We'll bring in General Hertling and other

[Co-host or Analyst]

Iran experts to kind of weigh in on this.

[Tim Miller]

But just some scuttlebutt out there is

[Co-host or Analyst]

that there's some view on the Iranian side that the power struggle is still ongoing and that this foreign minister has been more of, let's say the Del C. Rodriguez style type person of Iran willing to work with America and the IRGC and some military elements of the hardliners in Iran are exerting more control. And so like there's some scuttlebutt that it's hard to even know like if the negotiations are with the people that will actually end up being in power. So makes it hard to make grand claims like Iran agreed to open the strait forever when you know you've got some hard line thugs from the military who might decide that this is their moment to seize even more power within the regime. So that's something to keep an eye on.

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[Tim Miller]

Dan Shapiro, who I like to turn to.

[Co-host or Analyst]

He is Biden's ambassador to Israel. Very middle of the road guy. On analyzing what is happening in the Middle east, he posted this. Trump spent all day posting things on Truth Social that had not been agreed to, trying to will them to be true by saying them publicly. This is a crazy way to do diplomacy on something this consequential. And it has to be telling the Iranians that he's desperate for an off ramp which only increases their leverage.

[Tim Miller]

I think that's exactly right. If your audience look at this, they

[Co-host or Analyst]

look at Trump advance and say these guys want out. And so we want to get more money. We want to get a higher toll on the straight. We want more sanctions relief. They're going into the next negotiation which is supposed to be Sunday and now they're saying they don't have a day for it in a weaker and weaker position. See here Rory Johnson, an analyst I wanted to flag this oil market researcher has been talking about has been a really good follow on just getting through the fog of what is actually happening in the movement of oil and other energy through the Strait, through other parts of Persian Gulf down around Yemen and how that is impacting the market. He points out this is the most attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the early days of the war. It's like we're really, you know, kind of back in on it here.

[Tim Miller]

One other thing that has happened the shows I think that there are concerns in the White House about this.

[Co-host or Analyst]

There was a little noticed late night Friday update from the administration announcing that they're lifting sanctions on the Russian oil for another month.

[Tim Miller]

It was just two days ago, three

[Co-host or Analyst]

days ago now that Scott Besant said that the US Would not renew that waiver. They'd put this waiver, they'd released some sanctions on Russian oil to help calm

[Tim Miller]

the markets when the strait was originally closed.

[Co-host or Analyst]

Well, late Friday night they said they're extending that another month. That can either be read as a favor for Russia, just another favor from

[Tim Miller]

Russia from a Rusophile president or or

[Co-host or Analyst]

as a sign that they're not as confident as they're claiming that this rate

[Tim Miller]

of Hormuz situation is going to be resolved or maybe a little bit from

[Co-host or Analyst]

bucket A and a little bit from bucket B. I think that's probably the answer.

[Tim Miller]

Just one more from Gregory Brew, another

[Co-host or Analyst]

oil analyst have been following.

[Tim Miller]

He's talking about how really and this is going back even more than this morning.

[Co-host or Analyst]

There's been total chaos in the Strait over the last 24 hours. There are dozens of trapped ships trying to transit only to reverse course. Five tankers have made it through today with Iranian position, but permission rather. But more were turned around. I already mentioned the Indian tanker that was attacked. Strait is still under Iranian control. So it is not at all what Donald Trump was pitching yesterday, which should not be a surprise since that's him. He's a huckster and a liar.

[Tim Miller]

Here he is this morning.

[Co-host or Analyst]

He had a big announcement in the Oval Office with Joe Rogan about trying to. Joe Rogan is passionate about the use of psychedelics for treatment for people that

[Tim Miller]

have addictions to opioids or PTSD and

[Co-host or Analyst]

trying to get those through the approval process. Trump had an executive order press conference about that this morning where he had little Joe Rogan right behind him. It was interesting. Joe Rogan had just called all these MAGA guys like dweebs and losers and not that smart a couple weeks ago, and there he is in the Oval Office hanging out with the losers. But during that announcement, Trump did address the situation in Iran briefly. Let's take a look at that.

[Donald Trump]

We'll be talking about Iran later. We have very good conversations going on. It's working out very well. They got a little cute, as they have been doing for 47 years. Nobody ever took them on. We took them on. They have no navy, they have no air force. They have no leaders. They have no nothing. Actually, their leaders are. It is regime change. You call that enforced regime change. But we're talking to them. They wanted to close up the strait again, you know, as they've been doing for years. They can't blackmail us. In fact, a lot of the ships are coming up to Texas. I don't know if, you know, in Louisiana, the ships are coming up. They got used to it. Maybe they'll keep doing it. It's worked out pretty good. But it's going actually along very well. And we'll see, but we'll have some information by the end of the day. We're talking to them and, you know, we're taking a tough stand. They've killed a lot of people. A lot of our people have been killed. A lot of you, your fellow soldiers have been killed over the years by Iran.

[Tim Miller]

So you have there Trump saying that they get a little cute. I think firing on ships is more than a little cute.

[Co-host or Analyst]

He talks about how they're talking, that the Iranians were talking about closing the strait again, which they have been for years.

[Tim Miller]

That's not true. Not true. State of Hormuz had not been closed for years. There have not been lots of examples of this during the previous administrations. This is something that just happened this time because Donald Trump started a war of choice and didn't think about the consequences. So that was the spin that he's got. He says that they'll be out more

[Co-host or Analyst]

later today, so obviously we'll be keeping our eyes on that.

[Tim Miller]

But I think it was noteworthy that Trump, who likes to answer questions, likes to vamp in these settings, likes to

[Co-host or Analyst]

show off his shiny toy, in this case, Joe Rogan.

[Tim Miller]

When things came to a close and

[Co-host or Analyst]

there were journalists who wanted to ask more questions about the situation in the Strait, here's what happened then.

[Tim Miller]

Gotta shut this one down. Gotta shut this one down.

[Co-host or Analyst]

Not good news coming out of the White House. And we'll continue to see what happens. I think obviously that Trump will consider, continue to offer more and more concessions in the hope that, you know, the Strait can get reopened. But, you know, the situation is a lot dicier and it was made to seem 24 hours ago or even 12 hours ago. So we'll keep on that for you.

[Tim Miller]

Subscribe to the feed. We're going to 2 million going to the moon. We're going to 2 million subscribers. We really appreciate it. Tell your friends and I'll be talking to you soon.

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