Bulwark Takes – "BREAKING: Trump Threatens Europe Over Greenland; Europe Responds"

Date: January 17, 2026
Hosts: JVL (Jonathan V. Last), Will Saletan

Episode Overview

In this urgent episode, JVL and Will Saletan tackle the escalating international crisis: President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum to Europe and Denmark, threatening tariffs and coercion in pursuit of the "purchase" of Greenland. The hosts dissect the President’s unprecedented foreign policy, the bewildered European response, and what these moves mean for the future of alliances like NATO and the rules-based global order. The tone is incredulous, often alarmed—reflecting the gravity and surreal nature of the US stance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's Greenland Ultimatum (01:58–05:17)

• Trump's Announcement: On Truth Social, President Trump threatened steep tariffs (10% escalating to 25%) on EU and Scandinavian countries, explicitly tying their removal to an agreement for the "complete and total purchase" of Greenland.
• Escalation Beyond Belief: Hosts note this is a marked shift from previous, more rhetorical posturing—now open coercion, not negotiation.
  • Quote [03:52, Will Saletan]:
    “Okay. This is insane. What's happened here is until today, Trump's position about Greenland was the Russians and the Chinese... Today is the first day that Donald Trump has said, no, no, no, the Europeans, NATO countries are sending forces... Trump's response is that is a hostile action.”

2. European and Danish Response (05:18–08:16)

• Diplomatic Candor: Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen publicly accused Trump of wanting to "conquer" Greenland, making it clear such demands threaten the Kingdom’s sovereignty.
  • Quote [06:25, JVL]:
    “It’s clear the President has this wish of conquering Greenland... We made it very, very clear that this is not in the interest of the kingdom. Not mincing any words.”
• Red Lines: Denmark and Greenland’s “red line” is sovereignty and autonomy— and the US refuses to guarantee even that minimal respect.

3. Europe’s Military Moves (08:16–09:28)

• Troop Deployments: In response to US threats, EU countries began sending officers and small military contingents to Greenland. French President Macron pledged further assets—air, land, and sea.
  • Escalation Parallels: Hosts liken this to pre-war escalations (e.g., Cuban Missile Crisis), though on a different scale.

4. Manufactured Crisis and Authoritarian Playbook (10:28–12:54)

• Pretext for War: Trump is accused of manufacturing a conflict: demanding Europe "step up" in Greenland, then labeling their compliance as aggression and a pretext for US action.
  • Quote [10:28, JVL]:
    “They create the hostile situation and then claim the existence of that hostile situation as pretext for why they have to invade... This is gray zone warfare—except that the United States is doing the gray zone warfare.”
• Comparison to Putin: Drawing direct parallels to Russian tactics in Georgia and Ukraine, but executed by the US.
• New US Foreign Policy: The hosts see an abandonment of international order, replaced with "law of the jungle"—military might and coercion.
  • Quote [12:10, JVL]:
    “This is a fully new vision of American foreign policy... There is no international order except for guns.”

5. The Sham of “Buying” Greenland (15:40–19:04)

• Impossible Transaction: The “purchase” of Greenland is unworkable. No offer has been made, and the nature of the asset makes pricing implausible. No one would trust the US to honor such a deal given recent behavior.
  • Quote [17:03, JVL]:
    “The entire idea of this being a purchase is a sham, and we know it’s a sham because Trump hasn’t tendered an offer.”
• No Credibility: US reputation and “credit rating” as a reliable partner are shattered.
  • Quote [21:06, Will Saletan]:
    “No one can... All the deals made with us are temporary... We shouldn’t expect anyone to count on us.”

6. Pretext for War or Viceroy? (21:37–24:13)

• Will’s Counter-Theory: Trump may not want literal war, but is seeking to install a pliant leader (“a Delsey Rodriguez”—referring to Venezuela) in Greenland through threats and military pressure.
  • JVL Rebuttal: This is harder to achieve with democratic societies like Denmark and Greenland, unlike the authoritarian regime in Venezuela.

7. The End of NATO? (25:25–29:23)

• Zombie Alliance: JVL argues NATO, as currently conceived, is “dead man walking.” European defense must decouple from an unreliable US. Europe is already building its own defense capacity and considering independent nuclear deterrents.
  • Quote [27:16, JVL]:
    “As the future of European defense does not include America... the process of decoupling is coming, and I think it’s unavoidable.”
• Loss of Trust: Even with Trump gone, the credibility (both moral and practical) of the US as an ally may be irreparably damaged.

8. Immediate and Long-term Scenarios (30:01–32:54)

• Predictions: JVL rates the chance of an actual US invasion of Greenland at 35%, up from 2% a year ago (“a little bit better than one in three”).
  • Quote [32:31, Will Saletan]:
    “Stephen Miller and Mike Johnson... both of them said there’s not going to be a war in Greenland... because there’s hardly anyone there... because they won’t fight us.”
• Possible Outcomes:
  • Trump “claims victory” by fiat
  • US invades and Europe lets Greenland go to keep American weapons flowing while it re-arms
  • If another Democratic president is elected, Greenland could be returned—but the broader shift in European attitudes will be irreversible

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Will Saletan [03:52]:
  “This is insane. What's happened here is until today, Trump's position about Greenland was the Russians and the Chinese... Today is the first day that Donald Trump has said, no, no, no, no, the Europeans, NATO countries are sending forces.”

• JVL [10:28]:
  “They create the hostile situation and then claim the existence of that hostile situation as pretext for why they have to invade... This is gray zone warfare—except that the United States is doing the gray zone warfare.”

• Will Saletan [12:54]:
  “The person whose fingerprints you can see on this statement is Stephen Miller... Especially the phrase ‘without question’. This is one of Stephen Miller’s favorite...”

• JVL [17:03]:
  “The entire idea of this being a purchase is a sham, and we know it’s a sham because Trump hasn’t tendered an offer.”

• Will Saletan [21:06]:
  “All the deals made with us are temporary... We shouldn’t expect anyone to count on us.”

• JVL [27:16]:
  “As the future of European defense does not include America... they will continue to get whatever they can from America while they decouple from us. But the process of decoupling is coming, and I think it's unavoidable.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:58: Trump’s Greenland ultimatum—public threat on tariffs
• 05:18: Danish Foreign Minister’s public pushback
• 08:16: Troop deployments to Greenland by EU countries
• 10:28: “Gray zone warfare”—manufacturing a pretext for aggression
• 15:40: Analysis of why “buying” Greenland is impossible
• 25:25: Debate: Is NATO over?
• 30:01: Likelihood and possible forms of US action/invasion in Greenland

Conclusion

JVL and Will Saletan provide a measured but urgent assessment of an historic rupture in US-European relations, sparked by President Trump’s aggressive push for Greenland. They argue the episode marks a new, transactional—and coercive—foreign policy, one that places the United States alongside revisionist powers like Russia and China. Europe’s likely response, they contend, will be to accelerate defense independence and the slow, perhaps irreversible, collapse of the postwar alliance order. The episode ends on a somber call for Americans to be "clear eyed" about their country’s place in the world—neither alarmist nor complacent, but ready for a fundamentally altered global reality.