Bulwark Takes: BREAKING — Virginia Redistricting Referendum PASSES

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Date: April 22, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Bill Kristol

Episode Overview

This special election night episode dives into the April 21, 2026, passage of Virginia’s redistricting referendum—a move that will likely establish a strong Democratic majority in the state’s congressional delegation, potentially shifting it to a 10-1 split. Host Tim Miller and guest Bill Kristol, both of The Bulwark, unpack the narrow victory, the politics behind it, and its national implications, especially in the context of anti-Trump Democratic strategy and the ongoing battle over gerrymandering in American politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Significance of the Referendum Passing

• The “Yes” vote, which favored the new, partisan redistricting, has passed with a four-point margin ([01:00], [02:30]).
• This marks a shift from the previous nonpartisan redistricting system, which had resulted in more competitive, contiguous districts and a 6–5 Democratic-Republican split ([02:09]).

“The side that favored the referendum that redistricted the state of Virginia and redrew the state in such a way that it might end up being a 10 to 1 Democratic majority, that … referendum passed this evening.” —Bill Kristol ([01:18])

2. Why Democrats Supported Gerrymandering This Time

• The move is a reaction to aggressive Republican gerrymandering across the country, especially in Texas, supported by former President Trump ([02:14]–[02:26]).
• Democratic leaders, including Governor Spanberger, saw this as an essential countermeasure to preserve House control at the national level.

“Spanberger, the new Democratic governor, thought, you know, Virginia should play its part in checking this Republican attempt to keep control of the House by one sided gerrymandering.” —Bill Kristol ([02:21])

3. Voter and Political Dynamics

• Higher-than-expected turnout: over 3 million voters, rivaling recent gubernatorial and wave election numbers ([03:06], [03:14]).
• The “No” campaign was well-funded and effective, especially among Black voters, arguing that the new map would dilute their influence ([03:25]–[03:36]).
• In Northern Virginia, there remains a strong “good government” streak, with some Democrats sticking to their principles against gerrymandering, even over strategic anti-Trump interests ([02:30], [02:53]).

“In Arlington, yes vote is currently plus 60.” —Tim Miller ([02:56])

4. Partisan Breakdown: Geography and Margins

• The state divided sharply along partisan lines: Deep-red rural areas voted “no”; Richmond and Northern Virginia drove big “yes” margins ([04:13]–[04:59]).
• Some swing areas, like Virginia Beach, proved more competitive ([03:25], [06:04]).
• The shift from 2020’s highly favored nonpartisan map (2/3 in support) to the current polarized outcome signals both national and local urgency over House control ([03:51], [05:06]).

5. Implications for National Politics

• The margin of victory was significant but not a blowout, reflecting current generic ballot polling (Dem +7–8, not a landslide) ([08:30]).
• Demonstrates that, while anti-Trump energy is strong, it’s not at maximum “wave” levels as in previous cycles. There’s “more work to be done” ([05:20], [08:28]).
• The result mirrors recent elections where strong Democratic candidates have outperformed weaker ones, but not dramatically so ([07:53]–[08:19]).

6. Lessons for the Pro-Democracy Movement

• The victory is seen as a bold, hardball move by Democrats, proving critics wrong about their willingness to fight Trump-era tactics ([11:53]–[12:55]).
• Real Democratic leaders, like Spanberger and Louise Lucas, “punched back” rather than getting bogged down in internal infighting ([12:15]–[12:55]).
• The process stood in contrast to Republican states’ legislative gerrymandering because it went to voters via a referendum—an example of “Democratic hardball” ([15:33]–[15:52]).

“This is really a huge win and an exclamation point for the response that the Democratic Party and the pro democracy movement had to Donald Trump and his cronies attempts to rig the midterm elections.” —Bill Kristol ([12:04])

7. Potential Weaknesses and Future Battles

• Close margin indicates ongoing tension between party strategy and voter desire for nonpartisan fairness ([05:32], [09:39]).
• Messaging challenges: Opponents of the referendum strategically used past quotes from Obama and Spanberger to sow confusion among low-information voters ([11:24]).
• National implications: With the House likely safe under these maps, attention now turns to the Senate ([15:21]–[15:29]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I think the big picture is … the Democrats played hardball and won.” —Tim Miller ([14:40])
• “They did so by going to the voters and winning referendum. Pretty different from Texas where they jam it through … the already gerrymandered state legislature.” —Bill Kristol ([15:33])
• “This was not one of those cases … they played hardball politics against Trump. They won.” —Tim Miller ([15:15])
• “Their first gambit is an L. I think that’s a good kind of lesson to take tonight.” —Bill Kristol ([13:21])
• “Centrist Democrats can be aggressive Anti Trump Democrats, too… Spamberger and the Democratic Party in Virginia, which is pretty moderate on the whole, came through on this.” —Bill Kristol ([14:05]–[14:23])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:00–02:30 — Call made: The referendum passes, and context for this major shift
• 02:30–03:36 — Bipartisan and turnout dynamics, description of voter coalitions
• 04:13–04:59 — Partisan geography and the map of Virginia’s vote
• 05:06–05:32 — National political signals and implications
• 08:19–08:28 — Generic ballot and what the margin means for national Democrats
• 11:23–11:40 — Internal polling concerns and campaign messaging tactics
• 12:04–13:21 — Takeaways on Democratic resolve and organizational victory
• 14:40–15:52 — Reflection on Democratic strategy, brand, and contrasts with Republican tactics

Tone & Closing Thoughts

The conversation blends sober political analysis with a hint of celebratory tone, especially from Kristol, a Virginian pleased with the outcome. Both panelists emphasize that, while this is a significant victory for the Democratic and pro-democracy coalition, it is neither a total landslide nor a sign to grow complacent. The results show Democrats can play “hardball” while still respecting democratic process—winning through referendums rather than legislative power plays—setting up the next phase of the national electoral battle.

For listeners and political observers alike, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at both the stakes and lessons of Virginia's referendum, situating it in the shifting tides of American electoral politics post-Trump.