BREAKING: Virginia Redistricting Referendum PASSES

Summary

Bulwark Takes: BREAKING — Virginia Redistricting Referendum PASSES

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Date: April 22, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Bill Kristol

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Episode Overview

This special election night episode dives into the April 21, 2026, passage of Virginia’s redistricting referendum—a move that will likely establish a strong Democratic majority in the state’s congressional delegation, potentially shifting it to a 10-1 split. Host Tim Miller and guest Bill Kristol, both of The Bulwark, unpack the narrow victory, the politics behind it, and its national implications, especially in the context of anti-Trump Democratic strategy and the ongoing battle over gerrymandering in American politics.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Significance of the Referendum Passing

• The “Yes” vote, which favored the new, partisan redistricting, has passed with a four-point margin ([01:00], [02:30]).
• This marks a shift from the previous nonpartisan redistricting system, which had resulted in more competitive, contiguous districts and a 6–5 Democratic-Republican split ([02:09]).

“The side that favored the referendum that redistricted the state of Virginia and redrew the state in such a way that it might end up being a 10 to 1 Democratic majority, that … referendum passed this evening.” —Bill Kristol ([01:18])

2. Why Democrats Supported Gerrymandering This Time

• The move is a reaction to aggressive Republican gerrymandering across the country, especially in Texas, supported by former President Trump ([02:14]–[02:26]).
• Democratic leaders, including Governor Spanberger, saw this as an essential countermeasure to preserve House control at the national level.

“Spanberger, the new Democratic governor, thought, you know, Virginia should play its part in checking this Republican attempt to keep control of the House by one sided gerrymandering.” —Bill Kristol ([02:21])

3. Voter and Political Dynamics

• Higher-than-expected turnout: over 3 million voters, rivaling recent gubernatorial and wave election numbers ([03:06], [03:14]).
• The “No” campaign was well-funded and effective, especially among Black voters, arguing that the new map would dilute their influence ([03:25]–[03:36]).
• In Northern Virginia, there remains a strong “good government” streak, with some Democrats sticking to their principles against gerrymandering, even over strategic anti-Trump interests ([02:30], [02:53]).

“In Arlington, yes vote is currently plus 60.” —Tim Miller ([02:56])

4. Partisan Breakdown: Geography and Margins

• The state divided sharply along partisan lines: Deep-red rural areas voted “no”; Richmond and Northern Virginia drove big “yes” margins ([04:13]–[04:59]).
• Some swing areas, like Virginia Beach, proved more competitive ([03:25], [06:04]).
• The shift from 2020’s highly favored nonpartisan map (2/3 in support) to the current polarized outcome signals both national and local urgency over House control ([03:51], [05:06]).

5. Implications for National Politics

• The margin of victory was significant but not a blowout, reflecting current generic ballot polling (Dem +7–8, not a landslide) ([08:30]).
• Demonstrates that, while anti-Trump energy is strong, it’s not at maximum “wave” levels as in previous cycles. There’s “more work to be done” ([05:20], [08:28]).
• The result mirrors recent elections where strong Democratic candidates have outperformed weaker ones, but not dramatically so ([07:53]–[08:19]).

6. Lessons for the Pro-Democracy Movement

• The victory is seen as a bold, hardball move by Democrats, proving critics wrong about their willingness to fight Trump-era tactics ([11:53]–[12:55]).
• Real Democratic leaders, like Spanberger and Louise Lucas, “punched back” rather than getting bogged down in internal infighting ([12:15]–[12:55]).
• The process stood in contrast to Republican states’ legislative gerrymandering because it went to voters via a referendum—an example of “Democratic hardball” ([15:33]–[15:52]).

“This is really a huge win and an exclamation point for the response that the Democratic Party and the pro democracy movement had to Donald Trump and his cronies attempts to rig the midterm elections.” —Bill Kristol ([12:04])

7. Potential Weaknesses and Future Battles

• Close margin indicates ongoing tension between party strategy and voter desire for nonpartisan fairness ([05:32], [09:39]).
• Messaging challenges: Opponents of the referendum strategically used past quotes from Obama and Spanberger to sow confusion among low-information voters ([11:24]).
• National implications: With the House likely safe under these maps, attention now turns to the Senate ([15:21]–[15:29]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I think the big picture is … the Democrats played hardball and won.” —Tim Miller ([14:40])
• “They did so by going to the voters and winning referendum. Pretty different from Texas where they jam it through … the already gerrymandered state legislature.” —Bill Kristol ([15:33])
• “This was not one of those cases … they played hardball politics against Trump. They won.” —Tim Miller ([15:15])
• “Their first gambit is an L. I think that’s a good kind of lesson to take tonight.” —Bill Kristol ([13:21])
• “Centrist Democrats can be aggressive Anti Trump Democrats, too… Spamberger and the Democratic Party in Virginia, which is pretty moderate on the whole, came through on this.” —Bill Kristol ([14:05]–[14:23])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:00–02:30 — Call made: The referendum passes, and context for this major shift
• 02:30–03:36 — Bipartisan and turnout dynamics, description of voter coalitions
• 04:13–04:59 — Partisan geography and the map of Virginia’s vote
• 05:06–05:32 — National political signals and implications
• 08:19–08:28 — Generic ballot and what the margin means for national Democrats
• 11:23–11:40 — Internal polling concerns and campaign messaging tactics
• 12:04–13:21 — Takeaways on Democratic resolve and organizational victory
• 14:40–15:52 — Reflection on Democratic strategy, brand, and contrasts with Republican tactics

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Tone & Closing Thoughts

The conversation blends sober political analysis with a hint of celebratory tone, especially from Kristol, a Virginian pleased with the outcome. Both panelists emphasize that, while this is a significant victory for the Democratic and pro-democracy coalition, it is neither a total landslide nor a sign to grow complacent. The results show Democrats can play “hardball” while still respecting democratic process—winning through referendums rather than legislative power plays—setting up the next phase of the national electoral battle.

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For listeners and political observers alike, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at both the stakes and lessons of Virginia's referendum, situating it in the shifting tides of American electoral politics post-Trump.

Transcript

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[Tim Miller]

All right. Hey everybody, it's Tim Miller from the Bulwark here with my colleague Bill Kristol. We have a special Tuesday night election edition and Bill Kristol's home Commonwealth of Virginia. We can make an official call here that the yes vote, which means that

[Bill Kristol]

the side that favored the referendum that redistricted the state of Virginia and redrew the state in such a way that it might end up being a 10 to 1 democratic majority, that reference referendum

[Tim Miller]

passed this evening, there were some concerns in the pro democracy circles about this, about the no campaign was very aggressive and well funded and so a lot to unpack there. Bill, you're on the ground of Virginia. You made the case passionately on a couple of shows for why even as a non gerrymandering guy, you think in this case it was worthwhile to support the referendum.

[Bill Kristol]

What's your big takeaway?

Yeah, I didn't expect to be having an election night discussion on Tuesday, April 21st. But you know, this is Trump's America. Strange things happen.

[Tim Miller]

Right? And so the Virginia Constitution required that

[Bill Kristol]

they go to the voters to change

[Tim Miller]

the previous, I think constitutional amendment which has set up a non gerrymandering, nonpartisan

[Bill Kristol]

districting which was actually worked well and

[Tim Miller]

produced a 6 to 5 rake and

[Bill Kristol]

contiguous districts and all that. But then Texas redistricted, Trump's pushing it

[Tim Miller]

in other states and Spanberger, the new

[Bill Kristol]

Democratic governor, thought, you know, Virginia should play its part in checking this Republican attempt to keep control of the House

[Tim Miller]

by one sided gerrymandering.

[Bill Kristol]

So the Democrats gerrymandered. Looks like it's going to pass by about four points. So a little close for comfort. Spambrooker won by 15, obviously a year ago, not a year ago, what, five, six months ago. So some Spamberger voters. Virginia, Northern Virginia here has some good government Democratic types who believe that you shouldn't do gerrymandering, and I think stuck to their belief over their partisan interest

[Tim Miller]

and I would say also over the

[Bill Kristol]

interest of stopping Trump.

[Tim Miller]

But, you know, it's another.

That may be true, but in Arlington, yes vote is currently plus 60.

[Bill Kristol]

So. Yeah, well, they did have Assad. Like numbers in our, like 10, maybe.

[Tim Miller]

They do.

[Bill Kristol]

No, no, the Northern Virginia state. I mean, so what happened basically is, first of all, there's a couple things. Surprisingly big turnout. Looks like it's gonna be a little over 3 million, or I think it's

[Tim Miller]

3.4 in the gubernatorial race.

[Bill Kristol]

So we're having the same level of

[Tim Miller]

turnout as the high turnout, almost that high turnout we had a few months ago with the wave election in November of 2020.

[Bill Kristol]

So a lot of mobilization on both sides. An effective no campaign, a sophisticated one with smart messaging, and they had appeals to black voters. This was going to dilute their votes

[Tim Miller]

because they're going to be stuck in

[Bill Kristol]

other districts than they're used to and so forth. So they did their best. The no campaign, the yes campaign was

[Tim Miller]

pretty good, I would say.

[Bill Kristol]

But what it tells me is we are in a.

[Tim Miller]

This was the national environment. I mean, this is Virginia.

[Bill Kristol]

Two thirds of Virginians voted in 2020 for the previous redistricting. And that was the actual sentiments of

[Tim Miller]

Virginia are probably 2 to 1 for,

[Bill Kristol]

let's have nonpartisan districting. And so they overcame that because of the threat of Trump. And I was one of those who thought they should, and I voted that way. And obviously a lot of other people thought so, too.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. If you pull up the map here

[Bill Kristol]

and it kind of tells the story of Virginia and it's extremely. This is a straight partisan vote. You have all the way out in what they call south side and Southwest Virginia, just deep, deep red, which is representing the no side here, with a couple of exceptions, Roanoke City, Danville, which has a lot of black residents, and south side. But then you kind of go into a swing area over in Virginia beach, where things are much closer, and then you have Richmond and Northern Virginia running up big numbers on the yes side. And that basically, as a breakdown of the state, it's why Democrats have won with the exception of that first Biden midterm. That's why the state of Virginia has

[Tim Miller]

gone basically blue, I guess, only to your point on the national environment drove this.

[Bill Kristol]

And it was a swing of whatever, 2/3 in favor of nonpartisan redistricting. That'd be one way to look at it.

[Tim Miller]

Another way to look at it is if there was such a widespread backlash

[Bill Kristol]

against Trump as we are hoping for, maybe you'd see a bigger blow out there tonight. And so I do think that it signals that there's yet more work to be done on that front.

No, I very much agree with that. I mean, yeah, a couple of points along those lines. It was striking. I looked at some of the counties, I don't know the state, so, so, so, so well to really make a really fine granular judgment on this. I think there were parts of central

[Tim Miller]

Virginia that did not like being squished into districts that are now going to be dominated by the Northern Virginia part of the district up here in Fairfax county and are going to have representatives from up here, most likely.

[Bill Kristol]

And so there was a little bit of a more of a backlash among some of those. In some of those areas around

[Tim Miller]

the margins weren't as high, including in places like Virginia beach, as they where there wasn't a margin this time. And I think Spanberger won it by 12 or something.

[Bill Kristol]

So there was a little more erosion down there. But North Virginia came through the Shenandoah

and that kind of area, you end up going very red. Yeah.

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[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, so there was both the red

[Tim Miller]

vote and then the kind of we're

[Bill Kristol]

sort of annoyed to be stuck in

[Tim Miller]

some Northern Virginia district for the next four years, whatever.

[Bill Kristol]

That was sort of reasonable enough, I suppose. But I was, you know what this race looks like the most is the

[Tim Miller]

Jay Jones attorney general race from 2025. Remember that? So he was the weakest Democratic candidate by a long shot, running against the strongest Republican, the incumbent Myers for ag. Jones had all kinds of issues.

[Bill Kristol]

Jones won by about six and a half points once.

[Tim Miller]

Spanberger was winning by 15 plus, I think. And that really showed what a wave November 2025 was.

[Bill Kristol]

Now you're right. I mean, this is less of a margin than Jones and Little. Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

It doesn't show that the ENT is

[Bill Kristol]

so up in arms about Trump that it's going to just do everything it can to stop his party from controlling the House. I agree with that.

[Tim Miller]

And it does show there's more work to be done.

[Bill Kristol]

It's very consistent with the generic ballot polling right now nationally, which is, you

[Tim Miller]

know, plus seven, plus eight, you know, don't you think I feel like that's

[Bill Kristol]

a kind of pretty good for Democrats, but not quite, not quite at blowout levels.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, that's right. And if you look at the Jay

[Bill Kristol]

Jones thing and you know, like, at

[Tim Miller]

least in that case there was a

[Bill Kristol]

bulwark split on the other way around. I mean, some of us were like, I would not vote for Jay Jones given his personal behavior, which is horrific. And I think that's a different case than this ballot initiative.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, yeah. This isn't a personal.

But it's interesting though to use that example, which means that there are like some people in the Democratic pro Democracy

[Bill Kristol]

Spanberger Harris coalition in Virginia who decided they couldn't vote for Jay Jones or wouldn't vote for this ballot initiative.

[Tim Miller]

And if you look at the Jones

[Bill Kristol]

I just pulled this up Jones map and kind of compare it to the map of this ballot initiative. It's obviously pretty similar. But as you're saying, kind of in central and south, like kind of south of Richmond and around Roanoke in the middle of Virginia, there's some areas that Jones won that this referendum went down yeah.

[Tim Miller]

So I think that is the kind of just not liking being in Northern Virginia.

[Bill Kristol]

No. So I mean the truth of the. So if this was plus ends up around plus four, four and a half

[Tim Miller]

maybe I would think percent Hispanic one by 15.

[Bill Kristol]

If the Democrats run reasonably attractive candidates,

[Tim Miller]

which they will here in Virginia, I believe we don't. There's some primaries we won't know. And then around the country, presumably the truth is somewhere in between the kind of. I think it's pretty good. I guess the more I think about

[Bill Kristol]

it, this was uphill in various.

[Tim Miller]

A little more uphill than people realized in various ways.

[Bill Kristol]

Also the sense of urgency had kind of dissipated because people think Democrats are

[Tim Miller]

going to win the House pretty easily. And so it wasn't like, you know,

[Bill Kristol]

if you, if you had seen a lot of national polls with the debt,

[Tim Miller]

with the House even in the generic ballot, I think you might have had a little more urgency among some of these Democrats.

[Bill Kristol]

But they were able to vote there

[Tim Miller]

what they thought was their, you know, their principles and so forth or stay home in some cases. Probably.

Yeah.

[Bill Kristol]

So I don't know.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know.

[Bill Kristol]

I don't overthink it. It's one, it's one referendum, it's one state, it's one moment in time. But I'd say it's consistent with a very strong Democratic year.

[Tim Miller]

But it's not one of these amazing blowouts where they're running 25 points ahead of where they should be and all

that kind of thing. I agree with that.

[Bill Kristol]

So two other thoughts and takeaways that I have.

[Tim Miller]

Number one, just to emphasize your point

[Bill Kristol]

about how there was challenge in selling this and there was like urgency in some ways and a lot of the people felt like this had already been beaten back with what California did.

[Tim Miller]

And so I had Suhas Subramonium on the POD about a week ago and I forget what he said on the

[Bill Kristol]

podverse when we were chatting. He's a two lane crowd so I got to see him down here in

[Tim Miller]

person a couple months ago. But the internal polls were not.

[Bill Kristol]

Were concerning the yes side of this referendum.

[Tim Miller]

Thought that they might lose ton of

[Bill Kristol]

money on the other side. They were using old quotes from Obama and Spamberger to make it seem like they were against it. They're a low information voter, not following it that closely. Some people conceivably could have been persuaded or even tricked by that and so they were worried about this.

[Tim Miller]

So I think the fact that they end up with a small but comfortable

[Bill Kristol]

win is an expectations beat on what they were seeing internally.

[Tim Miller]

And my main takeaway, though, like, my biggest picture of all this, like, taking

[Bill Kristol]

off the campaigns and elections nerve hat,

[Tim Miller]

you know, and just like looking at the biggest, you know, biggest picture takeaway, it's really a huge win and an

[Bill Kristol]

exclamation point for the response that the Democratic Party and the pro democracy movement had to Donald Trump and his cronies attempts to rig the midterm elections.

[Tim Miller]

And they're going to keep trying other things, but I think that this is important. We should learn the lesson from this moment that there were at times there are people who are fatalists or not believing that fighting was worth it, or critiquing the Democratic Party and saying, the Democratic Party likes to have meetings more than they like to actually do things and they won't actually have the balls to push back on this. And like, those naysayers were wrong. I got, you know, you have got to give credit to Spamberger, Louise Lucas, Gavin Newsom and others who said, no, screw you. You know, we're not gonna bog this

[Bill Kristol]

down in interest group politics and red tape.

[Tim Miller]

We're gonna punch you back in the

[Bill Kristol]

nose and, you know, we'll see how the chips fall.

[Tim Miller]

And it worked. They counter punched back to Trump.

[Bill Kristol]

And in the end, their effort to,

[Tim Miller]

I guess it's not fully rigged, jury rig the midterms, you know, by putting their thumb on the scale and trying to redraw districts in a way that was more favorable to them. That attempt has failed.

[Bill Kristol]

We can say that officially tonight, April 21st.

[Tim Miller]

And will they do some other things to try to mess with the midterms?

[Bill Kristol]

Of course. But, you know, their first gambit is an L. And I think that's a good kind of lesson to take tonight.

No, I think it's a very useful,

[Tim Miller]

you know, 30,000 foot real perspective, though, of, you know, the big picture here.

[Bill Kristol]

And the only footnote I'd add is for Newsom to do this in California was consistent with his own personal ambitions and sort of, he wanted to be

[Tim Miller]

the leader of the Democratic resistance. He's now going.

[Bill Kristol]

Governor Spamberger got elected, huge margin. There was pressure on her not to do this. She had bipartisan support. She's a moderate.

[Tim Miller]

She should be governing for the whole.

[Bill Kristol]

Virginia has, you know, tradition of sort of bipartisanship to some degree, a little more than some other states, wasn't maybe necessary.

[Tim Miller]

You really did have to jerry rigged the districts to have them go like 100 miles down, you know, in the state stuff.

[Bill Kristol]

So. And she did it and, and they pulled it off. And it does, you know, are one of your favorite things in mind. You know, centrist Democrats can be aggressive. Anti Trump Democrats too. Spamberger. And the Democratic Party in Virginia, which

[Tim Miller]

is pretty moderate on the whole and

[Bill Kristol]

the Democratic electorate in Virginia, which is,

[Tim Miller]

you know, not which is a moderate Democratic electorate as Democratic electorates go, you know, came through on this.

[Bill Kristol]

So I think, yeah, I think the big picture is sort of like with no kings and like with other things that have been happening in special elections. And yeah, people and I would just

[Tim Miller]

say it's important to just say it. The Democrats played hardball and won.

Yeah.

And that's good. Like there is. They have a brand problem. I mean, I was watching, I think it was an interview of Graham Platner with the interviewer. They're talking about some poll of Maine residents and they're like, what do you think about the Democratic Party?

[Bill Kristol]

And I can't remember exactly what it

[Tim Miller]

was, but it was like mushy and weak willed and whatever. And it's like this was a case where that's not true. They played hardball politics. They won. You know, sometime there can be a, you know, you can overdo hardball politics. Like there could be situations where hardball politics is not called for, where, you know, cooler heads are better to prevail. This was not one of those cases that they, they played hardball politics against Trump.

[Bill Kristol]

They won. And as a result in the House of Representatives as like election this November

[Tim Miller]

is basically in the bag and the

[Bill Kristol]

fight turns to the Senate.

And they did so.

[Tim Miller]

They had to do it so because the Constitution.

[Bill Kristol]

But they did so by going to

[Tim Miller]

the voters and winning referendum. Pretty different from Texas where they jam it through. It already gerrymandered state legislature to then have more gerrymandering of the, of the, of the congressional races. Right.

[Bill Kristol]

I mean, so in that respect, I

[Tim Miller]

think it has a. It's hardball, but it's Democratic hardball. Small D Democratic hardball.

Amen. All right, that's Bill Kristol, a winner and a Virginian on the right side of the referendum this evening in the Commonwealth. We appreciate everybody. We'll be back. What's next on your agenda this week, Bill, you got morning shots tomorrow.

I have to write something for tomorrow morning. And Iran, Virginia, an awful lot of news going on.

You know, we'll see you all soon.

[Bill Kristol]

All right, peace.

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