Bulwark Takes – "California’s Governor Race Is Absolute Chaos" (April 24, 2026)

Episode Overview

Host Sarah Longwell dives into the bewildering landscape of the 2026 California governor's race following the most recent debate. With more than 60 candidates crowding the June primary, including six main contenders (some boosted by scandals and others by fractured party support), Sarah explores why this may be the strangest—and riskiest—governor's contest in recent California history. The episode unpacks the rising fortunes, reputational crashes, and intra-party dynamics throwing the Democratic field into chaos, as well as the unexpected staying power of two GOP candidates in deep-blue California.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Debate and Field: Setting the Scene (00:24–03:30)

• Record-High Candidate Count: 61 candidates are running in the June 2 primary; only six made the debate stage: Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, Steve Hilton, Chad Bianco, Matt Mahan, and Javier Becerra.
• Unusual Circumstances: Some debate participants wouldn't have qualified if Eric Swalwell, previously a frontrunner, hadn’t dropped out due to a sex scandal.
• Debate Recap: "It just gave me an opportunity to break down one of the weirdest races of the cycle. There's a lot to get into, so let's do it." – Sarah Longwell (00:27)

Republican Dynamics (03:31–04:15)

• Steve Hilton: Former advisor to David Cameron, now Fox News host, recently endorsed by Trump—but without official party backing. Sarah admits: "Until he started talking in this debate, I had not realized he was British." (03:37)
• Chad Bianco: Riverside County sheriff whose win in 2024 marked a rare Trump victory there; now a surprising GOP frontrunner because of the split Democratic field.
• Impact of Jungle Primary: With Democrats divided, both Republicans remain viable, an unusual situation in California.

The Democratic Fragmentation (04:16–06:10)

• Javier Becerra: Former Congressman, State AG, and HHS Secretary. "He was kind of like a boring, normal guy...everybody started going, isn't there somebody else in this big field?...Turns out everybody's like, oh, Javier Becerra is running, maybe him." (04:38)
• Katie Porter: Previously in Congress, renowned for her whiteboard explanations. After a failed Senate bid and public controversies, including viral videos of her staff interactions, her reputation is battered, but she retains backing from progressives like Elizabeth Warren.
• Tom Steyer: Hedge fund billionaire and 2020 presidential candidate. Initially not a serious contender until gaining visibility post-Swalwell. Despite being a billionaire, "he's sort of become also a darling of people who hate billionaires, of which he is one." (05:28) His investments in coal, prisons, and a radical ICE stance became debate fodder.
• Matt Mahan: Moderate, wealthy mayor of San Jose; polling low but financially competitive.

Debate Low-Lights & Notable Excerpts (06:11–09:14)

Memorable Quotes

• Steve Hilton on Trump Endorsement: "It is a deep honor for me to be endorsed by the president of the United States. My plan to make our state cal affordable is real and serious." (06:15)
• Chad Bianco on Race: "Let's stop with this whole racism thing and racial profiling and all of this garbage. We have to get over this." (06:44)
• Opponent's Rebuke: "I am stunned that Mr. Bianco would say to black and brown Californians and immigrants who are being terrorized and racially profiled that you have to get over racism. It's not something that you get over, it's something that you fight." (06:56)
• Attack on Tom Steyer: "It's worth keeping in mind, you know, the only housing Tom Stier's built has been private prisons and ICE detention centers." (07:21)

Highlights

• The debate was marked by testy exchanges, especially around race, candidates' records, and Steyer’s wealth.
• Katie Porter’s past viral moments and temper were referenced directly: "I apologized that day to that staffer four years ago." – Katie Porter (09:10)
• Several candidates jabbed at each other’s lack of executive experience and previous decisions on key issues like COVID policies, crime, and housing.

Polls and Implications Post-Debate (09:15–12:20)

• Becerra's Surge: Since Swalwell’s exit, Becerra leapt from 5% to around 10–20% in polls.
• Republicans in Top Two: Some polls now show Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco leading, risking a GOP vs GOP top-two runoff due to Democratic disunity—a serious warning for the party.
• Chaotic Field: "The existence of multiple, relatively strong candidates...creates more murkiness where one of them really needs to break out in the next few weeks." (10:16)
• Becerra's "Boring" Appeal: "You can give me the boring guy. And I think Becerra might really fit that bill at this moment." (11:09)

Analysis & Looking Forward (12:21–13:54)

• Debate Impact: Local debates rarely have outsized impact unless there’s a viral moment. "There were no real standouts in the debate. A few stumbles, but no glaring viral moments." (12:52)
• Porter’s Strengths: Despite reputation issues, "She's good at the debates...this is where she does shine." (13:26) But that may not matter enough in such a volatile climate.
• Outlook: "It's too early to tell how these dynamics could shift...but those occurring shifts, they're likely not going to be decided because of these debates." (13:47)

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Sarah Longwell: "There's a lot to get into, so let's do it." (00:27)
• Sarah Longwell: "Until he started talking in this debate, I had not realized he was British." (03:37)
• Sarah Longwell: "He was kind of like a boring, normal guy." (04:38)
• Chad Bianco: "Let's stop with this whole racism thing and racial profiling and all of this garbage. We have to get over this." (06:44)
• Opponent: "It's not something that you get over, it's something that you fight." (06:56)
• Debate jab: "The only housing Tom Stier's built has been private prisons and ICE detention centers." (07:21)
• Sarah Longwell: "The existence of multiple, relatively strong candidates in this race creates more murkiness where one of them really needs to break out in the next few weeks." (10:16)
• Sarah Longwell: "You can give me the boring guy. And I think Becerra might really fit that bill at this moment." (11:09)
• Sarah Longwell: "There were no real standouts in the debate. A few stumbles, but no glaring viral moments." (12:52)

Important Segments & Timestamps

• Debate Overview & Setting the Scene: 00:24–03:30
• Republican Field: 03:31–04:15
• Democratic Fracturing: 04:16–06:10
• Debate Low-Lights & Quotes: 06:11–09:14
• Poll Shifts & Primary Mechanics: 09:15–12:20
• Debate Impact & Prognosis: 12:21–13:54

Conclusion

Sarah Longwell offers a spirited, candid appraisal of the chaos stemming from California’s fragmented, scandal-ridden Democratic lineup and the strange parity it gives to GOP hopefuls in a state that’s typically a Democratic lock. While the latest debate didn’t deliver a viral moment, the real story is whether any Democrat can consolidate support before the jungle primary. As Sarah points out, steady but "boring" Javier Becerra may benefit from chaos, but the clock is ticking for someone to break out.

For more updates, Sarah promises continued "State of the Race" segments as primaries unfold.