Bulwark Takes: Canada’s Liberals and Mark Carney Win Huge in Backlash to Trump
Release Date: April 29, 2025

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, hosts Tim Miller and J.J. McCullough delve into the significant victory of Canada’s Liberal Party and Mark Carney in the 2025 Canadian federal elections. The discussion centers on how backlash against former U.S. President Donald Trump played a pivotal role in shaping the election outcome, affecting both Canadian politics and conservative movements in Western countries.

1. Introduction and Immediate Reactions

Tim Miller opens the episode with a celebratory tone, highlighting the unexpected and decisive victory of Canada’s Liberal Party. He emphasizes the detrimental impact Donald Trump had on the Conservative Party's campaign:

"The Conservatives are on a glide path to victory. And the Trump stank was so putrid and so intense that the wind blew it north across the border and it completely infected all of Pierre's entire campaign."
[00:00]

Miller frames Trump’s influence as a significant factor that undermined the Conservative Party’s chances, portraying it as a monumental defeat not just for Trump but for conservative parties globally.

2. Trump’s Influence on Canadian Conservatism

Miller elaborates on how Trump’s actions negatively affected conservative movements outside the United States, particularly in Canada. He attributes the Conservative Party’s downfall to Trump’s unpopularity and his attempts to alienate traditional American allies:

"Donald Trump was so, so unappealing... his ability to crush your own side is not actually a sign of strength. It's a sign of unbelievable unpopularity and incompetence and absurdity."
[00:00]

He underscores the broader implications for conservative parties in Western nations, suggesting that Trump’s antagonistic stance towards allies has made it challenging for these parties to maintain their traditional support bases.

3. Analysis with J.J. McCullough

J.J. McCullough, the resident Canada expert, joins the conversation to provide a deeper analysis of the election results. He confirms that Trump’s influence did not translate into support for Canada’s Conservative Party but instead became a central issue that benefitted the Liberals:

"This was a very binary election... It is a very dramatic and decisive win for Carney's theory of the case, which was the F U. Trump theory."
[05:36]

McCullough explains that Canadian voters largely viewed the election through the lens of Trump’s actions, making it a referendum on his influence rather than traditional policy debates.

4. Demographic Insights and Voter Behavior

Miller and McCullough discuss exit polls and demographic trends that influenced the election outcome. McCullough highlights the significant support Mark Carney received from various voter groups, including young voters, older Canadians, and those from the center and far left:

"Carney is establishing himself as a pretty decisive figure... he has unified this very broad coalition behind him of young people, of old people, and of people of sort of the moderate left and the far left."
[06:38]

The conversation reveals that Carney’s ability to attract a diverse voter base was crucial in overcoming fragmented opposition and consolidating support against the Conservative Party.

5. The Decline of Traditional Conservative Challenges

McCullough points out that the defeat of the Conservative Party signifies a shift in Canadian politics, where center-right parties now face an environment that is inherently challenging due to Canada’s center-left leaning:

"It seems like the fundamentals, if we're dealing with a two-party system, Canada is a pretty center-left country and that's a hard environment for conservatives to compete in."
[10:45]

He reflects on the historical challenges conservatives have faced in Canada, suggesting that Carney’s victory reinforces the difficulty of winning in a predominantly center-left political landscape.

6. The Role of Identity Politics and Competence

The discussion also touches on the diminishing role of traditional identity politics in favor of a focus on competence and credible leadership. McCullough observes that Mark Carney’s technocratic image and perceived competence resonated with voters across the political spectrum:

"If you just exude certain competence in the face of... high stakes politics, people will apparently rally behind you."
[12:38]

This shift indicates a move towards valuing effective governance over partisan identity, contributing to Carney’s broad-based support.

7. The Aftermath for the Conservative Party and Future Implications

Addressing the future of the Conservative Party, McCullough discusses the internal conflicts stemming from Trump’s legacy. He highlights the difficulty party leaders like Pierre Poliev face in distancing themselves from Trump’s negative influence:

"It is going to be hard... when we read the history of the 2025 Canadian election... there is no universe in which Trump is not as important to that story as Pierre and Carney."
[16:18]

Miller reflects on the American perspective, pondering whether Canadian conservatives will successfully break away from Trump’s shadow, drawing a parallel to the challenges faced by the Republican Party in the U.S.

8. Conclusion and Reflections

Miller wraps up the episode by congratulating Mark Carney and reaffirming the significant impact of anti-Trump sentiment on the election outcome. He emphasizes the potential for Carney to emerge as a symbol of resistance against authoritarianism in the eyes of Americans:

"Congratulations to Mark Carney. F** Donald Trump, everybody."*
[17:32]

The episode concludes on a note of optimism for liberal and center-left movements, celebrating the unity and strategic gains achieved by Canada’s Liberals in a tumultuous political climate shaped by external influences.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s Negative Impact: Donald Trump’s unpopularity and antagonistic policies significantly hindered the Conservative Party’s prospects in Canada, leading to a historic loss.

• Mark Carney’s Broad Appeal: Carney successfully unified a diverse coalition, encompassing young voters, older Canadians, and various segments of the left, by positioning himself as a competent and credible leader.

• Shift in Canadian Politics: The election underscores Canada’s center-left orientation, presenting ongoing challenges for conservative parties to compete effectively.

• Decline of Identity Politics: Voters showed a preference for competence over traditional partisan identities, indicating a potential shift towards valuing effective governance.

• Future of Conservatism: The Conservative Party faces the daunting task of redefining its identity and strategy in the wake of Trump’s damaging influence, both domestically and internationally.

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2025 Canadian federal elections, highlighting the interplay between international political dynamics and domestic electoral outcomes. It offers valuable insights into the evolving landscape of Canadian politics and the enduring influence of American political figures on global conservative movements.