China's Xi Leaves Trump on 'Read' In Tariff Staredown

Summary

Summary of Bulwark Takes Episode: "China's Xi Leaves Trump on 'Read' In Tariff Staredown"

Podcast Information

• Title: Bulwark Takes
• Host/Author: The Bulwark
• Description: The news cycle doesn’t slow down, and neither does The Bulwark. Bulwark Takes brings you bite-sized takes on the news of the day from the entire Bulwark team, including Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, Bill Kristol, and more.
• Episode: China's Xi Leaves Trump on 'Read' In Tariff Staredown
• Release Date: April 12, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, host Andrew Egger delves into the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China under former President Donald Trump's administration. Titled "China's Xi Leaves Trump on 'Read' In Tariff Staredown," the episode explores Trump's heavy reliance on tariffs as his primary diplomatic weapon and its ramifications on international relations, particularly with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

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Trump’s Tariff Strategy

Andrew Egger opens the discussion by characterizing Donald Trump as a president who prioritizes tariffs above all else in his trade strategy. He emphasizes that for Trump, tariffs serve multiple purposes: protecting U.S. manufacturing, generating revenue, and wielding diplomatic pressure against other nations.

Donald Trump at [00:47]: "I always say tariffs is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary."

Egger highlights Trump's perception of tariffs as both a practical economic tool and a strategic maneuver to assert American dominance on the global stage. Trump's approach is likened to a fixed strategy where tariffs are the cornerstone of his foreign policy, especially in dealing with countries that do not align with his administration's objectives.

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China’s Response

The episode transitions to China's reaction to Trump's tariff policies. Egger notes that while Trump aimed to pressure China into negotiations by imposing steep tariffs—raising China's tariff rate to 135%, effectively creating a de facto embargo—China did not capitulate as expected. Instead, Chinese President Xi Jinping doubled down, implementing massive new tariffs in retaliation.

Andrew Egger at [03:05]: "China wants to make a deal, they just don't know how to go about it."

Donald Trump at [03:05]: "China wants to make a deal, they just don't know how quite to go."

Xi Jinping responded firmly, asserting China's long-standing commitment to self-reliance and resilience against external pressures:

Chinese President Xi at [03:08]: "For over 70 years, China's development has relied on self-reliance and hard work, never on handouts from others. And it is not afraid of any unjust suppression."

Egger interprets China's steadfastness as an unexpected turn, leaving Trump’s strategy seemingly ineffective and rendering both nations entrenched in a tariff stalemate.

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Implications for US-China Relations

Egger analyzes the broader implications of this tariff confrontation. He argues that Trump's relentless use of tariffs has not only strained U.S.-China relations but also complicated America's position as a global economic leader. By individually targeting nations rather than fostering international cooperation to decouple from China, Trump's policies risk isolating the U.S. and inadvertently pushing other countries closer to China.

A notable development Egger mentions is the European Union's recent economic rapprochement with China, negotiating the lifting of tariffs on Chinese electric cars—a move typically resisted to protect EU manufacturers.

Andrew Egger at [07:35]: "The EU, Europe in general, historically, has not wanted Chinese cars to come flooding into their market... but we're now seeing as at exactly the same moment that America steps back in this role, other people essentially saying, okay, we have to trade more with China now."

This shift undermines the U.S.'s ability to lead a unified front against China's economic expansion, as other global players diversify their economic partnerships to accommodate increased tariffs imposed by the U.S.

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Domestic Implications in China

On the domestic front, Egger suggests that the tariff standoff provides Chinese President Xi Jinping with a convenient scapegoat for any economic downturns or public dissatisfaction. By attributing economic challenges to external pressures from the U.S., Xi can deflect criticism and consolidate political power.

Andrew Egger at [08:50]: "Xi has a ready scapegoat at hand. It's Trump and his aggressive tariffs. That's the reason he can say that the Chinese economy is not doing as well as it otherwise could be."

This strategy allows Xi to maintain domestic stability by channeling public frustration towards foreign adversaries rather than internal governance issues.

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Possible Endgame and Future Prospects

Egger explores potential outcomes of this ongoing tariff conflict. He posits that without a clear endgame or willingness from Trump to engage diplomatically—evidenced by his reluctance to initiate direct talks with Xi—the trade war may continue indefinitely, causing prolonged economic strain on both nations.

Andrew Egger at [08:25]: "Donald Trump doesn't seem to actually want to pick up the phone and call. He's waiting for Xi to do that. Xi doesn't seem too, too enthused about doing that himself. So we're at a complete standstill here."

Egger also raises the possibility that this impasse could lead to a near-complete decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies, disrupting global trade patterns and economic stability.

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Conclusion

In wrapping up, Andrew Egger underscores the complex dynamics of the U.S.-China trade war under Trump's administration. While tariffs serve as a potent tool for economic and diplomatic leverage, their unilateral application without coordinated international support limits their effectiveness and introduces significant uncertainties into global markets.

Andrew Egger at [09:00]: "We're looking at basically an entire decoupling of our two economies, the two largest economies of the world, US and our third largest trading partner, the US And China, with a lot of pain to go around on both sides and absolutely no end game inside sight."

Egger concludes that the situation remains precarious, urging listeners to stay informed as developments continue to unfold.

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Notable Quotes

• Donald Trump [00:47]: "I always say tariffs is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary."

• Donald Trump [01:11]: "They’re basically that old SNL skit. For him, it's both a floor wax and a dessert topping."

• Donald Trump [01:49]: "Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting, yippee, you know, they were getting a little bit yipp. Afraid, unlike these champions, because we have a big job to do."

• Andrew Egger [03:05]: "China wants to make a deal, they just don't know how to go about it."

• Chinese President Xi [03:08]: "For over 70 years, China's development has relied on self-reliance and hard work, never on handouts from others. And it is not afraid of any unjust suppression."

• Andrew Egger [07:35]: "The EU, Europe in general, historically, has not wanted Chinese cars to come flooding into their market... but we're now seeing as at exactly the same moment that America steps back in this role, other people essentially saying, okay, we have to trade more with China now."

• Andrew Egger [08:25]: "Donald Trump doesn't seem to actually want to pick up the phone and call. He's waiting for Xi to do that. Xi doesn't seem too, too enthused about doing that himself. So we're at a complete standstill here."

• Andrew Egger [09:00]: "We're looking at basically an entire decoupling of our two economies, the two largest economies of the world, US and our third largest trading partner, the US And China, with a lot of pain to go around on both sides and absolutely no end game inside sight."

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Final Thoughts

This episode of Bulwark Takes provides a critical examination of the strategic stalemate between the U.S. and China under Trump's tariff policies. Andrew Egger articulates the complexities and unintended consequences of relying heavily on tariffs as a diplomatic tool, highlighting the challenges in achieving meaningful progress without collaborative international efforts. As the situation evolves, the potential for economic decoupling looms, necessitating vigilant observation and analysis.

Transcript

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[Mario]

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[Andrew Egger]

Hi, guys. This is Andrew Egger with the Bulwark, here to talk Donald Trump's one strategy, trade war, one card to play, and how it's kind of landing with a thud against the single country that's emerged as its primary target, which is China. So Trump, as we all know, he's a guy who loves tariffs more than anybody else alive.

[Donald Trump]

I always say tariffs is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary. Then I was reprimanded by the fake news. They said, what about love, religion, and God? I said, I agree. Let's put God number one. Let's put religion number two. Love. I don't know. We got to put that number three, I guess, right? And then it's tariff.

[Andrew Egger]

They're basically that old SNL skit. For him, it's both a floor wax and a dessert topping. For Trump, tariffs are a tool for protecting US Manufacturing and growing the economy and a cheat coat for bringing in tons of revenue and a deadly weapon for him to use to boss other nations around. He has made them pretty much the only tool in his diplomatic arsenal in this second term. If another country isn't doing what Trump wants them to do, he's gonna slap on some tariffs or he's gonna threaten to slap on some tariffs. Now, it is true he had to back off his massive Liberation Day tariffs on the entire world that he announced last week after just a few days for the simple reason that they were about to crash the entire global economy. Why you decided to put a 90 day pause?

[Donald Trump]

Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting, yippee, you know, they were getting a little bit yipp. Afraid, unlike these champions, because we have a big job to do. No other president would have done what I did. No other president. I know the president. They wouldn't have done it.

[Andrew Egger]

But he's tried to save face on that flip flop by acting as if he didn't back off the trade war. He's just refocusing it on China. China, after all, was the country that had stepped forward to quickly retaliate against Trump's tariffs by slapping on new tariffs of their own. Over the weekend, Trump posted, china played it wrong. They panicked. The one thing they cannot afford to do. China has been hit much harder than the usa. Not even close. They and many other nations have treated us unsustainably badly. So you fast forward then to last Wednesday when the same moment he took his foot partially off the neck of most of the rest of the world, he pushed down harder on China. He raised their tariff rate to 135%, which is for most intents and purposes a functional embargo on the world's second largest economy. Now, it seemed pretty clear at that moment that Trump thought that 135% tariff, it's a pretty big tariff. It would be enough to cow the Chinese into backing down, he said Wednesday. China wants to make a deal, they just don't know quite how to go about it.

[Donald Trump]

China wants to make a deal, they just don't know how quite to go.

[Andrew Egger]

About it, he said. You know, they're a proud people. You know, it takes a little bit of, of, of encouragement to get, to get China to see the light on this stuff.

[Donald Trump]

They're proud people and President Xi is a proud man. I know him very well. And they don't know quite how to go about it, but they'll figure it out.

[Andrew Egger]

But China has not reacted the way Trump expected. They just doubled down with correspondingly massive new tariffs of their own. A day later, Chinese President Xi said they aren't going to be intimidated. He said for over 70 years, China's development has relied on self reliance and hard work, never on handouts from others. And it is not afraid of any unjust suppression. So all this seemingly has Trump basically just flailing. I mean, it kind of, it cuts against his entire self conception of how these things are supposed to go. He, he's supposed to be the alpha dog in these trade negotiations. He's supposed to be the one who brings the pain. Other nations are supposed to be the ones who then come hat in hand to heap gifts upon him to regain his favor. We've been getting some genuinely pretty funny reporting from CNN today about how U.S. officials keep wheedling their Chinese counterparts to please get Xi to pick up the phone and call Trump. Trump isn't going to call Xi. That would be 2 beta. But apparently begging the other guy to be the beta in these official diplomatic channels is not considered by the White House to itself be kind of a beta move here. And I say it's funny. It is funny. It is funny. But at the same time, we should not sugarcoat China here. We should not be tempted to indulge in enemy of my enemy thinking here just because of all of our feelings about Donald Trump and how pointless all of this is. I mean, it is 100% true that China is a bad actor on the world stage, just full stop. It's an autocratic, oppressive regime. It. It spends lots of time trying to make all of our global institutions indulge it in all of its own autocratic, oppressive whims. It is not a good player diplomatically, internationally. But at the same time, while a massive trade war is gonna inflict major pain on both US and them, both the US And China, economically, there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical that it will do anything to diminish the Chinese Communists party presence or sway either at home among the Chinese people or on the world stage. You could imagine a world where the US Tried to lead an international cooperative effort among our allies to decouple from China economically and isolate Beijing internationally. Instead, Trump is still out here picking individual trade fights with practically every country on earth. He's taken off the extinction event tariffs, but he still has, you know, a baseline 10% new tariff on everybody with, you know, prospect of more to come after this 90 day pause, although obviously not to the same degree as China. Again, that 135% tariff tariff on China is unique at this point. So, I mean, if anything, you could make the argument that Trump is pushing the rest of the world closer to China right now by abdicating America's position as the consensus economic and military leader of the free world, making trade with the US Far more expensive for everybody else. One really kind of shocking example of that that came out this week is that the EU and China announced an economic thaw in the form of negotiations on lifting EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars, which has been a huge. I mean, that is a real red flag. The eu, Europe in general, historically, has not wanted Chinese cars to come flooding into their market. They want to prop up EU auto manufacturers. But we're now seeing as at exactly the same moment that America steps back in this role, other people essentially saying, okay, I guess maybe we have to trade more with China now to kind of make the whole economic picture make sense. Meanwhile, as far as the domestic picture is concerned, Trump has given Xi the sort of gift that an autocrat like him loves. He's given him an enemy abroad on which he can Focus, the domestic animus, the kind of ire of his, of his own people over how their economy is doing. China's economy has not been so hot lately on its own merits. And that is a situation which that's been reported, you know, has led to, and could easily continue to lead to rising pressure on China's political leadership, on Xi himself. But now, you know, Xi has a ready scapegoat at hand. It's Trump and his aggressive tariffs. That's the reason he can say that the Chinese economy is not doing as well as it otherwise could be. That's the reason why there's economic pain. Again, it is gonna be the reason why there's some economic pain. But it also lets Xi package this as good pain to a certain extent for his people to say, yeah, we're gonna suffer, but the reason we're gonna suffer is because we're not gonna let Donald Trump and the Americans walk all over us. We're too proud to do that. And in that way, he has this outlet to relieve a lot of that pressure on himself, even at home, both internationally and at home. So what's the endgame here? We don't know. We don't really know. Donald Trump has, again, this one weapon, and it's ratcheting tariffs up higher. Tariffs are already basically at the point where they are going to foreclose on all but the tiniest fraction of US China trade going forward until there's a thaw. It's not like raising the rates. I mean, you could raise the rates to 5,000% at this point in sort of daily 10% increments, and it wouldn't be any different. It would not be an actual new source of real diplomatic leverage in any way whatsoever. Meanwhile, Donald Trump doesn't seem to actually want to pick up the phone and call. He's waiting for Xi to do that. Xi doesn't seem too, too enthused about doing that himself. So we're at a complete standstill here. I guess the White House is just going to keep tinkering with all of the other individual trade deals. Maybe, you know, I guess the best case scenario you could envision is that we come out the end of this 90 day pause, we get this miraculous face turn from Donald Trump where he decides that these other countries have given him enough concessions that we're going to be basically free trading with the rest of the world now. And then, you know, you could maybe see this turn to actually trying to isolate China or have China fear that and be willing to take down some of these barriers. Have China blink first. Let Trump take the win. Let Trump plant the flag. Let some of these tariffs come back down. In the meantime, though, we are looking at basically an entire decoupling of our two economies, the two largest economies of the world, US and our third largest trading partner, the US And China, with a lot of pain to go around on both sides and absolutely no end game inside site. So we'll keep keep an eye on all this stuff. We'll keep bringing it to you.

[Mario]

Step into the world of power, loyalty, and luck.

[Vito Corleone]

I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse.

[Mario]

With family. Cannolis and spins mean everything.

[Vito Corleone]

Now you want to get mixed up in the family business.

[Mario]

Introducing the [e-mail] test your luck in the shadowy world of the Godfather slot.

[Vito Corleone]

Someday I will call upon you to do a service for me.

[Mario]

Play the Godfather [e-mail] Welcome to the family. No purchase necessary VGW Group void where.

[Andrew Egger]

Prohibited by law 21 + terms and conditions apply.