Bulwark Takes: "Confusion Erupts Over Leaked Peace Plan"

Date: November 23, 2025
Host: Sam Stein (The Bulwark)
Guest: Aaron Banko (National Security Reporter, Reuters)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into Aaron Banko’s significant reporting for Reuters on the controversial, recently leaked Ukraine peace plan. The conversation unpacks how the plan emerged from a secretive meeting in Miami involving major Trump-world figures, close Putin ally Kirill Dmitriev, and US envoys. The plan's Russian-centric leanings, murky authorship, and the governmental confusion—both internally and in public messaging—take center stage, illustrating broader questions about US diplomacy, Trump-world backchannels, and the precarious situation for Ukraine.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Backdrop: The Secret Miami Meeting

• [01:49] Aaron Banko: Outlines the late October meeting (Oct 24–26) in Miami involving:
  • Jared Kushner (Trump son-in-law)
  • Steve Wyckoff (US Special Envoy)
  • Kirill Dmitriev (sanctioned Russian oligarch, close to Putin)

“It included Jared Kushner, Steve Wyckoff...and a guy named Kirill Dmitriev, who is Russian. He's very close to President Putin.” (Aaron Banko, 01:51)

• This meeting has drawn concern from US officials and lawmakers due to Dmitriev's sanctioned status and prior involvement in backchannel outreach during Trump's first administration.

2. Who is Kirill Dmitriev?

• [02:16] Dmitriev: Key backchannel operator, previously mentioned in the Mueller report (Erik Prince Seychelles meeting), with established ties to Kushner.

“He had that infamous meeting with Erik Prince in the Seychelles ... and he also made inroads with Jared Kushner via a friend.” (Aaron Banko, 02:24)

3. Origins and Content of the Leaked Peace Plan

• [03:04] The meeting reportedly produced either a fully drafted or bullet-pointed 28-point peace proposal later leaked to Axios.
• The peace plan’s language mirrors long-standing Russian demands:
  • Ukraine cedes territory in the east
  • Ukraine denied NATO membership
  • Ukraine must cap its military at 600,000 troops

“A Lot of people in D.C. define as maximalist demands that Russia has wanted for a long time.” (Aaron Banko, 04:42)

• No Ukrainian or other US officials were present; only Kushner and Wyckoff.

4. Interpretation: Clearly Pro-Russian

• [05:38] Pundits and officials deem the plan extremely advantageous for Russia.

“... what are some of the 28 points... Why is the sort of overwhelming interpretation that this is a clear Russian plan?” (Sam Stein, 05:19)

• [06:01] Banko confirms: “...these are huge wins for Russia. Right. Big trade off for Ukraine.”

5. Battlefield Context

• [06:03] The timing: Russia is apparently gaining ground, Ukraine faces struggles, and the winter is approaching.

"...it doesn't look good for Ukraine right now on the battlefield in the east." (Aaron Banko, 06:51)

6. Process Questions: Backchannels vs. Official Diplomacy

• [07:10] The process (or lack thereof) echoes Trump’s first term: opaque meetings, minimal formal oversight, sidelining traditional diplomatic channels.

“...now this has just become commonplace. Right. This is just how Trump world does business.” (Aaron Banko, 07:49)

Dmitriev’s Special Status

• [08:08] Despite being US-sanctioned, Dmitriev was granted waivers to enter the country for this meeting, raising eyebrows.

7. Government Messaging: Deep Confusion and Mixed Signals

• [08:32] A communication debacle unfolds:
  • Rubio tells senators the plan is just a "starting point," not US-authored;
  • State Department disputes this;
  • Rubio subsequently muddies the waters with a clarifying (but ambiguous) tweet.

“There’s this just general mass confusion about what is actually happening.” (Sam Stein, 09:21)

• [09:35] White House press shops only coordinated messaging a day after the leak, indicating they were caught off-guard.

8. Was the US “Author” or Merely a Conduit?

• [10:23] Discussion of what “US-authored” means, with Banko speculating that Americans (Kushner, Wyckoff) almost certainly had input, but that the plan originated heavily from Russian demands.
• [11:53] Rubio’s tweet is read aloud:

“The peace proposal was authored by the US it is offered, not authored, offered as a strong framework for ongoing negotiations. It is based on input from the Russian side, but it also. But is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine.” (Paraphrased by Sam Stein, 11:53)

9. Ukrainian Involvement and Deadlines

• [13:05] The only Ukrainian involvement was being “read in” after the Miami meeting; scant evidence exists of real input.
• Looming deadline: Ukraine allegedly told to sign or risk losing US aid by Thanksgiving—just days away.

"I find it highly doubtful that that will happen. I mean, I don't think the Ukrainians are ready to sign off." (Aaron Banko, 14:12)

10. Process Parallels to Gaza

• [14:18] Stein notes this approach echoes the administration’s tactics during Gaza negotiations: fast-tracking a deal and strong-arming the weaker party.

11. Unorthodox Diplomacy and Shadowy Venues

• [15:20] NSC sidelined: Traditional interagency processes (normally led by NSC) excluded in favor of Miami “hotel room” diplomacy.
• [15:32] The venue itself—Fiana Hotel, owned by oligarch Len Blavatnik—adds to the shadowy nature.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Dmitriev ... is just very much part of the Russian apparatus, but he has a ton of business ties in the West. And so he can kind of play both into both circles... that’s concerning.”
  (Aaron Banko, 07:41)

• “We do have a Secretary of State still ... he seems to be weirdly sidelined, but also not.”
  (Sam Stein, 08:18)

• “I don’t believe that this is like pure Russia ... leaked to Axios. I believe that there were conversations with these.”
  (Aaron Banko, 11:21)

• “Shit gets done in Miami hotel rooms.”
  (Sam Stein, 15:31)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Miami meeting details and players | 01:49 | | Dmitriev’s backstory/Bullet points for peace plan | 02:16–03:44| | Plan is heavily Russian & proposal specifics | 04:42–06:03| | US government confusion; Rubio’s role | 08:32–11:53| | Ukrainian “input” and fast timeline to decision | 13:05–14:18| | Parallels to Gaza, process complaints | 14:18–15:32| | Miami hotel venue, oligarch connection | 15:32–15:43|

Tone and Style

The episode is marked by rapid exchanges, skepticism, and a wry, slightly exasperated tone—particularly from Sam Stein, who presses for clarity amid bureaucratic fog. Aaron Banko remains measured but candid, emphasizing both what’s known and what remains deeply unclear.

Final Thoughts

This episode exposes the confusion, opacity, and backchannel dealing around a high-stakes Ukraine peace plan—one emerging from secret meetings with sanctioned Russian actors, sidelining normal diplomatic channels, and strongly favoring Moscow. The White House appears flat-footed by the leak, while lawmakers, diplomats, and Ukraine itself scramble to ascertain not just the plan’s contents, but its true authorship and intent.

Listeners are left with a sense of unease about the process and a sharper understanding of how 21st-century diplomacy may resemble clandestine dealmaking in luxury hotels, rather than statesmanlike negotiation.