Confusion Erupts Over Leaked Peace Plan

Summary

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Bulwark Takes: "Confusion Erupts Over Leaked Peace Plan"

Date: November 23, 2025
Host: Sam Stein (The Bulwark)
Guest: Aaron Banko (National Security Reporter, Reuters)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into Aaron Banko’s significant reporting for Reuters on the controversial, recently leaked Ukraine peace plan. The conversation unpacks how the plan emerged from a secretive meeting in Miami involving major Trump-world figures, close Putin ally Kirill Dmitriev, and US envoys. The plan's Russian-centric leanings, murky authorship, and the governmental confusion—both internally and in public messaging—take center stage, illustrating broader questions about US diplomacy, Trump-world backchannels, and the precarious situation for Ukraine.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Backdrop: The Secret Miami Meeting

• [01:49] Aaron Banko: Outlines the late October meeting (Oct 24–26) in Miami involving:
  • Jared Kushner (Trump son-in-law)
  • Steve Wyckoff (US Special Envoy)
  • Kirill Dmitriev (sanctioned Russian oligarch, close to Putin)

“It included Jared Kushner, Steve Wyckoff...and a guy named Kirill Dmitriev, who is Russian. He's very close to President Putin.” (Aaron Banko, 01:51)

• This meeting has drawn concern from US officials and lawmakers due to Dmitriev's sanctioned status and prior involvement in backchannel outreach during Trump's first administration.

2. Who is Kirill Dmitriev?

• [02:16] Dmitriev: Key backchannel operator, previously mentioned in the Mueller report (Erik Prince Seychelles meeting), with established ties to Kushner.

“He had that infamous meeting with Erik Prince in the Seychelles ... and he also made inroads with Jared Kushner via a friend.” (Aaron Banko, 02:24)

3. Origins and Content of the Leaked Peace Plan

• [03:04] The meeting reportedly produced either a fully drafted or bullet-pointed 28-point peace proposal later leaked to Axios.
• The peace plan’s language mirrors long-standing Russian demands:
  • Ukraine cedes territory in the east
  • Ukraine denied NATO membership
  • Ukraine must cap its military at 600,000 troops

“A Lot of people in D.C. define as maximalist demands that Russia has wanted for a long time.” (Aaron Banko, 04:42)

• No Ukrainian or other US officials were present; only Kushner and Wyckoff.

4. Interpretation: Clearly Pro-Russian

• [05:38] Pundits and officials deem the plan extremely advantageous for Russia.

“... what are some of the 28 points... Why is the sort of overwhelming interpretation that this is a clear Russian plan?” (Sam Stein, 05:19)

• [06:01] Banko confirms: “...these are huge wins for Russia. Right. Big trade off for Ukraine.”

5. Battlefield Context

• [06:03] The timing: Russia is apparently gaining ground, Ukraine faces struggles, and the winter is approaching.

"...it doesn't look good for Ukraine right now on the battlefield in the east." (Aaron Banko, 06:51)

6. Process Questions: Backchannels vs. Official Diplomacy

• [07:10] The process (or lack thereof) echoes Trump’s first term: opaque meetings, minimal formal oversight, sidelining traditional diplomatic channels.

“...now this has just become commonplace. Right. This is just how Trump world does business.” (Aaron Banko, 07:49)

Dmitriev’s Special Status

• [08:08] Despite being US-sanctioned, Dmitriev was granted waivers to enter the country for this meeting, raising eyebrows.

7. Government Messaging: Deep Confusion and Mixed Signals

• [08:32] A communication debacle unfolds:
  • Rubio tells senators the plan is just a "starting point," not US-authored;
  • State Department disputes this;
  • Rubio subsequently muddies the waters with a clarifying (but ambiguous) tweet.

“There’s this just general mass confusion about what is actually happening.” (Sam Stein, 09:21)

• [09:35] White House press shops only coordinated messaging a day after the leak, indicating they were caught off-guard.

8. Was the US “Author” or Merely a Conduit?

• [10:23] Discussion of what “US-authored” means, with Banko speculating that Americans (Kushner, Wyckoff) almost certainly had input, but that the plan originated heavily from Russian demands.
• [11:53] Rubio’s tweet is read aloud:

“The peace proposal was authored by the US it is offered, not authored, offered as a strong framework for ongoing negotiations. It is based on input from the Russian side, but it also. But is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine.” (Paraphrased by Sam Stein, 11:53)

9. Ukrainian Involvement and Deadlines

• [13:05] The only Ukrainian involvement was being “read in” after the Miami meeting; scant evidence exists of real input.
• Looming deadline: Ukraine allegedly told to sign or risk losing US aid by Thanksgiving—just days away.

"I find it highly doubtful that that will happen. I mean, I don't think the Ukrainians are ready to sign off." (Aaron Banko, 14:12)

10. Process Parallels to Gaza

• [14:18] Stein notes this approach echoes the administration’s tactics during Gaza negotiations: fast-tracking a deal and strong-arming the weaker party.

11. Unorthodox Diplomacy and Shadowy Venues

• [15:20] NSC sidelined: Traditional interagency processes (normally led by NSC) excluded in favor of Miami “hotel room” diplomacy.
• [15:32] The venue itself—Fiana Hotel, owned by oligarch Len Blavatnik—adds to the shadowy nature.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Dmitriev ... is just very much part of the Russian apparatus, but he has a ton of business ties in the West. And so he can kind of play both into both circles... that’s concerning.”
  (Aaron Banko, 07:41)

• “We do have a Secretary of State still ... he seems to be weirdly sidelined, but also not.”
  (Sam Stein, 08:18)

• “I don’t believe that this is like pure Russia ... leaked to Axios. I believe that there were conversations with these.”
  (Aaron Banko, 11:21)

• “Shit gets done in Miami hotel rooms.”
  (Sam Stein, 15:31)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Miami meeting details and players | 01:49 | | Dmitriev’s backstory/Bullet points for peace plan | 02:16–03:44| | Plan is heavily Russian & proposal specifics | 04:42–06:03| | US government confusion; Rubio’s role | 08:32–11:53| | Ukrainian “input” and fast timeline to decision | 13:05–14:18| | Parallels to Gaza, process complaints | 14:18–15:32| | Miami hotel venue, oligarch connection | 15:32–15:43|

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Tone and Style

The episode is marked by rapid exchanges, skepticism, and a wry, slightly exasperated tone—particularly from Sam Stein, who presses for clarity amid bureaucratic fog. Aaron Banko remains measured but candid, emphasizing both what’s known and what remains deeply unclear.

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Final Thoughts

This episode exposes the confusion, opacity, and backchannel dealing around a high-stakes Ukraine peace plan—one emerging from secret meetings with sanctioned Russian actors, sidelining normal diplomatic channels, and strongly favoring Moscow. The White House appears flat-footed by the leak, while lawmakers, diplomats, and Ukraine itself scramble to ascertain not just the plan’s contents, but its true authorship and intent.

Listeners are left with a sense of unease about the process and a sharper understanding of how 21st-century diplomacy may resemble clandestine dealmaking in luxury hotels, rather than statesmanlike negotiation.

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Transcript

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[Sam Stein]

Me, Sam Stein, managing Ed at the Bulwark. And I'm joined by Aaron Banko, who's national security reporter for Reuters. We're going to be talking today about a really incredible scoop Aaron had. It's in Reuters, obviously, but it has to deal with this kind of evolving situation involving the Ukraine peace plan. I should say Russia peace plan for Ukraine that is being pushed right now. And I just say that because we're recording here Sunday at like, 12:30. This is probably going to be posted tonight at some point. It's dynamic. So what we say might seem a little bit outdated, but Aaron's reporting won't. Aaron, your story starts off at a meeting in Miami that has now gotten the attention of what you say. U.S. officials and lawmakers who are, as you report, increasingly concerned about this meeting. It happened last month, set the stage for us.

[Aaron Banko]

Yeah. So this meeting took place at the very end of October, between October 24 and October 26. It included Jared Kushner, Steve Wyckoff, who's the special envoy working on this peace plan, and a guy named Kirill Dmitriev, who is Russian. He's a very close to President Putin, and he runs one of the country's largest sovereign wealth funds and has been in, like, the Trump orbit since the first administration.

[Sam Stein]

When you say the Trump orbit, what does that mean? Like, he's just friendly with these guys?

[Aaron Banko]

Sort of, yeah. I mean, when Trump won in 2016, Dmitriev was one of the only people connected to President Putin and the Kremlin who tried to make inroads with the Trump team. His goal was to try to reset relations between the US And Russia. He had that infamous meeting with Erik Prince in the Seychelles that then ended up getting reported on in the Mueller report. And he also made inroads with Jared Kushner via a friend of Jared's. He drafts this sort of plan to reset relations between the two countries and hands it off to a Kushner intermediary who then gives it to Kushner.

[Sam Stein]

So they meet in late October, Kushner, Witkoff and Dimitri. And what is discussed?

[Aaron Banko]

So the details about the meeting are pretty scarce, but what we do know is that what comes out of the meeting is this 28 point peace plan that then gets leaked to Axios earlier this week. So there's a lot of speculation about how those conversations unfolded in those days in Miami, including the extent to which Dmitriev brings an actual proposal to Miami to get sign off from Wyckoff and Kushner. Or does he bring like bullet points? Dimitriev, the guy who does this all the time, this is the way he operates. He draws up plans, he passes it around, he tries to get people to look at his ideas. I mean, this has been happening since the first Trump administration.

[Sam Stein]

You are certain that he came in to this meeting in October with either a peace plan or bullet points, but some sort of agenda from the Russian side for a peace deal or a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine? We're fairly certain about that. Right. Were there other inputs in that meeting? As in, were the Ukrainians involved? Were any U.S. lawmakers involved, or was it just Wyckoff and Kushner?

[Aaron Banko]

So the Ukrainians were not at the meeting. It was just Witkoff and Kushner. I think it's fair to say. Again, we don't have a ton of details. I think it's fair to say that they go into this meeting knowing what the Ukrainians think in general about ending the war. I mean, they've been having these conversations since January, but a lot of the language that's included in the peace plan that's now out there includes demands by Russia that they've been making since January, like for a long time. Right. And the language is just very similar to what we hear Dmitriev and Putin and others inside Russia talking about when they want the war to end. Like they want Ukraine to give up territory in the east, they don't want them to join NATO. I mean, these are what a Lot of people in D.C. define as maximalist demands that Russia has wanted for a long time.

[Sam Stein]

This is what kind of stood out to people was that this 28 part peace plan, which gets kind of like divulged fairly randomly. Right. Like it was just sort of out of nowhere. It seems incredibly tilted to the Russian side. And then there's a like, kind of mass speculation, like people are running it through AI machines to see if, like the rhetorical origins are Russian and things like that. Can you just sort of.

[Aaron Banko]

I think that's happening because nobody knows how it got developed in a.

[Sam Stein]

Exactly, exactly. So just talk about the plan itself. What is the actual. What are some of the 28 points in. I mean, people are like, maybe vaguely familiar with the contras of what a deal might look like. But why is the sort of overwhelming interpretation that this is a clear Russian plan?

[Aaron Banko]

Well, it sort of gets back to the points that I was just making, right? It's like, okay, the war is going to end and Ukraine gets security guarantees, and then Russia basically gets a lot of the other demands that it's been making. You know, again, Ukraine's not joining NATO. It cedes land that it thinks it can or claims it controls in the east. I mean, that's huge.

[Sam Stein]

Caps its military at 600,000.

[Aaron Banko]

Yeah, it capping its military. I mean, these are huge wins for Russia. Right. Big trade off for Ukraine. And part of the reason, you know, you'll talk to people inside the White House about this and they'll say, look, you know, Russia's winning. You know, they have the upper hand here if they want these things. You know, you have much choice. I mean, like, I'm not a battlefield expert, I would say that like in the east, where the fighting has been very intense, Russia is on the up and up, like it, it is in certain neighborhoods and on certain battlefields, winning. And I think we thought at the beginning of the year that Ukraine would have the ability to sort of stave them off, but now we're coming to winter time, things are going to get like, literally muddy in Ukraine and, and it doesn't look good for Ukraine right now on the battlefield in the east.

[Sam Stein]

And so is the perception that the administration both sees this as the inevitable outcome, but also that they're taking some sort of advantage of this window that presents itself.

[Aaron Banko]

Yeah, I think that's very fair. But again, like, we don't know exactly, you know, how this plan gets crafted in this hotel in Miami. And so like, if we think back to Trump, one and there would be News about like some side meeting or back channel. Back channel meeting that happens where there aren't any note takers or translators or whatever. I mean, it would have been like a huge deal, but now this has just become commonplace. Right. This is just how Trump world does business. But I think what's concerning officials is like Dmitriev, right? He has been front and center in a lot of these negotiations with Wyckoff. He is sanctioned by the US he's actually blacklisted by the US he's had to receive certain waivers to come into the country. He's a close Putin ally and confidant. And he's just like a slippery guy. I mean, he, he is just very much part of the Russian apparatus, but he has a ton of business ties in the West. And so he can kind of play both into both circles. And so I think people are just concerned about the nature of the conversation.

[Sam Stein]

Well, yeah, and also the main. I mean, I get that this is how they do business, but like, we do have a Secretary of State still. I mean, he happens to be the head of the National Archives as well, and he's got a lot of jobs, but he is the Secretary of State.

[Aaron Banko]

And he.

[Sam Stein]

And he seems to be weirdly sidelined, but also not. And so we had this incredibly odd thing that happened in Halifax last night where, and I'm just going to try to summarize it and you can tell me what you've heard. Marco Rubio apparently is talking to at least three senators and explaining to them that this 28 point plan is not a US authored plan, or at least that's how the senators interpreted what Rubio says. They come out and say, we've been authorized to say this, like this is just a starting point in negotiations, not actually the US Plan. Then the State Department spokesperson chimes in and says, no, that's not true. This is false. And then Rubio gets on Twitter and tries to clarify, but leaves open interpretation that it is actually not a US Plan. It's a starting point for negotiations. And there's this just general mass confusion about what is actually happening.

[Aaron Banko]

I mean, there's been confusion about this plan since, like, it got leaked to Axios. But I mean, I think there's a couple things we can say. I think it's fair to say the administration was caught off guard by the leak. I think that's super fair. I also think.

[Sam Stein]

Really?

[Aaron Banko]

Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

Okay.

[Aaron Banko]

Like, I mean, we're talking to people in press shops throughout the government that first day. I mean, no one knew what was going on like, no one, no one had a clear message or answer. It wasn't until the next day that they start syncing up, like, what their messaging is. And I think to it, to a large extent, the White House press shop is directing the messaging on this now. And I just, I don't know what happened on that call. Like, the lawmakers are saying one thing, the State Department publicly is saying another thing. There could have been some misinterpretation, but, like, I think it's fair to say.

[Sam Stein]

This is three separate senators to a Republican, a Democrat, an independent who all got the same message from this call. Okay.

[Aaron Banko]

Yeah. Okay, so I'm still reporting this out, but sure, there, like, okay, I'm just talking in hypotheticals now. There could have been a situation where like, Dmitriev comes to the meeting in Miami. He's got like a list of Russian demands and a lot of them are folded in. And Jared and Wyckoff sign off. They say, great, you draw it up, Dmitriev draws it up. And like it's being passed around that small circle for some time. And then eventually Rubio's read in. I don't know when Rubio was read in. He, I, I have questions about whether or not he was even read in on that meeting in Miami. But okay, we're still reporting that out. And then, and you know, US authored, what does that mean? Does it mean that like they wrote it? Does it mean that they signed off on it? Does it mean that now authored to.

[Sam Stein]

Me means they had input on it? Right, like that you don't. They could have said US approved would have been signed off. Authored means that we had input into this 28 point plan.

[Aaron Banko]

To me, I'm sure they did. I'm sure they did. Like this. I don't, I don't believe that this is like pure Russia comes out of like the Kremlin in Moscow and is like just leaked to Axios. Like, I believe that there were conversations with these.

[Sam Stein]

Well, one thing.

[Aaron Banko]

But that raises even more questions and concerns for officials. Right? Because they're like, wait a minute. Okay, so you're saying that this is mostly coming out of Russia, but you were like in on the meeting to discuss it and approved it. And so now that means that's a US Authored plan. Like, there are just so many questions about how those conversations unfold.

[Sam Stein]

Well, the other thing about the Rubio tweet, and I just might as well. I'm going to read it. It says the peace proposal was authored by the US it is offered, not authored, offered as a strong framework for ongoing negotiations. It is based on input from the Russian side, but it also. But is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine. That last part, to me is very. I mean, that's the clearest part. We worked with the Russians on this. We took into account what the Ukrainians had previously told us and continue to advocate for. They were not at the table. There's. He's just saying they weren't at the table. The Russians were.

[Aaron Banko]

Correct.

[Sam Stein]

This is the plan.

[Aaron Banko]

Yeah, correct. That makes sense to me.

[Sam Stein]

I mean, why does that make sense? I don't understand. It's a peace process. Why would you.

[Aaron Banko]

Wouldn't you have them at the table? I'm not saying that it makes sense as in this is good that, you know, if this meeting only included Dmitriev and not the Ukrainians, it makes sense that it would include a lot of Russian demands and probably not a lot of Ukraine, you know. Yes, right. Like, that's what I mean in terms of process. If the Ukrainians weren't at the table, then, of course, whatever comes out of that meeting is not necessarily. Not necessarily going to have what Cuban wants in it. Right.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. Yeah. Well, I guess. So then the question now is, what is the timeline here? Because the, the other thing that the US Side is saying is that Ukraine has to sign off on this thing by Thanksgiving or they're going to lose U.S. aid.

[Aaron Banko]

Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

And yet here Rubio saying, well, this is a foundation for talks. Like, does that mean they have, what, four or five days to, you know, get their amendments in and that's it? I don't know.

[Aaron Banko]

I. I do know we have sourcing that says the UK were read in after this Miami meeting, but I don't know the extent to which they were like, you know, going back and forth with the White House about what they wanted in it. I don't know if they were briefed. It seems like it was very baseline. Here's what we have. Let us know what you think. Now, there are attacks today in Geneva, and we'll have to see, you know, what comes out of those. That Ukrainians are there, so is a huge US Entourage. But I think it all comes down to this meeting in Miami. Like, it comes down to that conversation. What happened, what did the.

[Sam Stein]

Sure. But, like, they have. We're like a week out, not even till Thanksgiving. Is. Is the expectation that there will be signatures on this thing in three or four days.

[Aaron Banko]

I find it highly doubtful that that will happen. I mean, I don't think the Ukrainians are ready to sign off.

[Sam Stein]

It does give me a little bit of sort of deja vu. This is the play they sort of ran with Gaza, right? It's like, here's a peace deal, get on board, or this is it. And they're like, just stuff. It worked well.

[Aaron Banko]

Interesting, right? Because, like, Kushner hadn't been involved in these Russian talks until a couple months ago. And so I think the president obviously trusts Jared and he has been involved with Wyckoff on the Gaza talks. I think the played look is, like, kind of similar. I should also note that Kushner's close with Dimitriev. They work together under the first administration on Covid stuff, so he has a direct line to Demetriev. I think if you're gonna. If you're the president and you want to fast track a peace process, like, you're gonna get probably Jared involved because he has the connection to Dmitriev and he's already working with Wyckoff on the Gaza plan. Again, though, like, the inner agency process as it was was like, completely. Not just like nobody in the interagency knew about.

[Sam Stein]

What is it. What is the interagency process here? It's like total freelancing.

[Aaron Banko]

The NSC is supposed to be the one that coordinates, like, these major, you know, briefings or meetings or cables. Right?

[Sam Stein]

Shit gets done in Miami hotel rooms.

[Aaron Banko]

That's just the way it happens, I guess. Oh, and I should say, like Demetrius holding up court in the Fiana Hotel in Miami, which is owned by Len Blavatnik, who does business with now.

[Sam Stein]

Now, you're getting way past my understanding of rushing. Shady rushing figures, so probably should.

[Aaron Banko]

Very strange.

[Sam Stein]

All right, Aaron Banko, reader stuff at Reuters, especially her big old scoop. It's titled Trump Officials Meeting with Russian in Miami Spurs Questions about Ukraine Proposal. Want to talk to your headline writer about that stuff? Wouldn't have fun in the Daily Beast days. Thank you so much. Really appreciate Aaron.

[Aaron Banko]

Thank you.

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