Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – "Consumers Absolutely HATE Trump's Economy"

Host: Sarah Longwell
Guest: Katherine Rampel
Date: November 9, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Sarah Longwell welcomes Katherine Rampel, The Bulwark’s new economics reporter, for her first “official take” on the podcast. The discussion is focused on the state of consumer sentiment in the Trump economy — why Americans are feeling so negatively, the effects of government policy (especially tariffs), and how the Supreme Court may shift Trump's economic legacy. The episode also explores business reactions, fears around presidential power, and whether recent Republican election losses might embolden businesses and institutions to push back.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Consumer Sentiment Hits Historic Lows

[01:14 – 01:43]

• Backdrop: The University of Michigan’s latest survey finds consumer sentiment at its lowest in over three years, nearly matching the worst levels ever.
• Katherine’s Take:
  • Sentiment has been deteriorating for years, not always reflecting true economic conditions.
  • This time, concerns are justified: government shutdowns, persistent tariffs, and ongoing affordability crises.
  • "People are upset and, and worried about prices, about losing their jobs." (01:41 – Rampel)
  • Only the wealthiest, especially major stockholders, are feeling optimistic.

2. Disconnect Between Economic Data and Public Mood

[02:43 – 04:04]

• Recent Job Losses: 1.1 million jobs lost since January.
• Despite data sometimes showing a “quite good” economy (inflation down, job growth solid), most Americans feel it is terrible.
• Partisanship's Role: There’s a clear partisan split; however, the present discontent is widespread.
• "I do not think that this economy is anywhere near as bad as that in 2008." (03:35 – Rampel)

3. Uncertainty Under Trump: Policy by Whim

[04:17 – 06:16]

• Data Blackout:
  • Government shutdowns have stopped the flow of reliable economic data, causing a "fog" for both businesses and consumers.
  • "It's really hard to tell what is going on in the present, and it's going to be even harder to tell what's happening in the next few months..." (04:58 – Rampel)
• Unpredictability:
  • Much economic uncertainty is “driven by government policy,” especially with Trump’s impulsive approach (notably tariffs issued via Truth Social posts).

4. Supreme Court and the Future of Tariffs

[07:03 – 10:56]

• The Case: The Supreme Court is deciding whether presidents can unilaterally impose tariffs under the National Emergencies Act (AIPA).
• Likely Outcome:
  • The Court appears poised to strike down Trump’s tariffs:
    • “It looks likely that they will strike down the tariffs.” (08:42 – Rampel)
    • Should that happen, $200 billion in already-collected tariffs may be rebated to companies — a de facto "Trump rebate" or tax cut.
• Marketplace Implications:
  • Lifting tariffs could free businesses from costly, time-wasting logistics and negotiation.
  • "It would free up companies to just like do their thing, which is what they were doing before he came into office when again the economy was actually pretty strong." (09:54 – Rampel)

5. Will Trump Accept the “Win”?

[10:56 – 12:27]

• Political Paradox:
  • The Supreme Court’s decision could be a blessing in disguise for Trump, removing one of his self-inflicted economic wounds.
  • But there’s skepticism about whether he’ll take this as a win, since he likes dispensing special favors.

6. How Businesses React Under Trump’s Tariffs

[15:04 – 19:30]

• Fear, Not Protest:
  • Business pushback is rare and muted; the risk of incurring Trump’s wrath is high, so most prefer quiet back-channels.
  • "Everybody's afraid of him 100%." (15:58 – Rampel)
• Crony Capitalism:
  • CEOs, even at enormous companies, expend time courting Trump (sometimes literally with made-up awards) to win exemptions.
  • “When, like, your profit center becomes the people at the company who are trying to figure out how to most please or least piss off this president, that's not a good thing. Like, that's not how capitalism is supposed to work.” (18:10 – Rampel)

7. A Climate of Retribution and Compliance

[19:30 – 21:13]

• Weaponization of Government:
  • Rampel cites reports about Trump’s interest in using agencies like the IRS and DOJ for political retribution.
  • Even powerful companies and institutions shrink from challenging the administration, signaling to smaller players to fall in line.
  • “If the institutions that are better situated to fight back don't fight back, then all of the ones that aren't, like, they just fall into line and Trump doesn't need to threaten them.” (20:59 – Rampel)

8. Will Election Results Change Anything?

[21:23 – 24:49]

• Recent Elections:
  • Republicans suffered major losses, but Rampel doesn’t expect this to shift business attitudes as long as Trump remains in power.
  • "Not until he's gone… as long as he's still in the White House, it doesn't matter who's winning the statewide office in Georgia..." (22:14 – Rampel)
• Long-Term Structural Fears:
  • The precedent set by Trump’s expansive use of emergency powers is worrying, both for Republicans and for what a future Democratic president could do.
  • “If, for example, this president can declare a national emergency over, you know, trade deficits… what’s to keep a future Democratic president from saying climate change is a national emergency…?” (23:36 – Rampel)
  • Congress’s abdication of its powers raises further dangers for future governance.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “People have been getting, like, progressively more bummed out about the economy over the years in ways that don't always reflect what's actually going on in the economy. But I think this grimness is pretty much grounded in actual concerns…” — Katherine Rampel [01:43]
• “It's not only moving goods around, it's also bullshit like this... your profit center becomes the people at the company who are trying to figure out how to most please or least piss off this president…” — Katherine Rampel [18:10]
• “That’s not capitalism. This is a kleptocracy of Trump enriching his friends and wanting to wield tariffs so that he can punish countries that he gets mad at over a commercial or have the country countries come begging for special pleading.” — Sarah Longwell [18:39]
• “Everybody's afraid of him 100%.” – Katherine Rampel [15:58]

Segment Timestamps

• Main Topic Introduction: 01:14
• Consumer Sentiment & Job Loss: 01:43 – 03:48
• Economic Uncertainty & Data Blackout: 04:17 – 06:16
• The Supreme Court and Tariffs: 07:03 – 10:56
• Trump’s Political Incentives: 10:56 – 12:27
• Business Response & Crony Capitalism: 15:04 – 19:30
• Retribution & Institutional Fear: 19:30 – 21:13
• Elections & Future Business Behavior: 21:23 – 24:49

Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is frank, incisive, and laced with wry humor — especially as Rampel and Longwell dissect the “kleptocracy” and performative aspects of the Trump administration’s economic approach. Both highlight how a blend of policy chaos, fear, and self-interest have produced an “icky and scary” business environment — a sharp contrast to the market efficiency and competitive dynamism that many Americans expect.

Final Thought:
Until Trump leaves office, businesses and institutions are likely to remain cautious, adaptive, and mostly silent — leaving America’s economic mood in a rut even as uncertainty and partisanship cloud the true economic picture.