Bulwark Takes — “Could Iowa Be The Democrats’ Next Pickup?”

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Host: Lauren Egan (The Bulwark)
Guest: Josh Turek (Iowa Democratic State Rep., Paralympian, US Senate Candidate)
Date: August 28, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives into recent shifts in Iowa's political landscape, spotlighting a surprising state senate victory for Democrats in a Trump-leaning district. Host Lauren Egan interviews Iowa State Rep. and US Senate candidate Josh Turek, exploring whether Iowa is poised to become a Democratic pickup opportunity in 2026. Together, they break down special election dynamics, underlying “kitchen table” concerns of Iowans, the resurgence of prairie populism, and the strategic challenges of the Democratic primary.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iowa’s Surprising Special Election Upset

• Caitlin Dre’s Win:
  • Democrats flipped a Trump +11 state Senate seat by about 10 points, breaking the GOP supermajority ([00:19]).
  • “This is now the fourth special election that we have won now during Donald Trump’s terms.” — Josh Turek [01:12]
• Significance:
  • Turek views this not as an anomaly but as evidence of deepening discontent with GOP “faux populism.”
  • Emphasizes surging energy, especially in rural and traditionally red areas.
  • “Lots and lots of people saying, ‘I’m tired of it, I’ve had it. We need a different direction.’” — Josh Turek [01:57]

2. Are Democrats Overreading Special Election Results?

• Host’s Pushback ([02:41]):
  • Lauren Egan notes special election turnout is often more educated and disproportionately Democratic.
  • Warns against reading too much into “engaged voter” turnout.
• Turek’s Rebuttal:
  • Calls the victory “fundamentally altering policy” by blocking GOP supermajority appointments ([03:30]).
  • Insists turnout increases are broad-based: rural, youth, independents, and even Republicans.
  • “Right candidate with the right message and the right work ethic, you can win in any environment in Iowa.” — Josh Turek [05:31]

3. What Do Iowans Care Most About?

• Kitchen Table Issues Dominate ([05:41]):
  • Medicaid and health care anxieties loom largest.
  • “1 in 5 Iowans are on Medicaid out here, and we’re looking at 110,000 people losing their health care.” — Josh Turek [06:14]
  • Years-long wait lists for disabled Iowans; closures of nursing homes and lack of dental care highlight system failings.
  • “Affordable, accessible health care... lowering cost, a livable wage, raising the minimum wage, affordable housing... It’s prairie populism like my hero Tom Harkin ran on.” — Josh Turek [07:11]
• Environmental Crisis:
  • Cites Iowa’s “massive water crisis” and unique status as the only state with a growing cancer rate ([06:40]).

4. Defining Prairie Populism & Common Sense Politics

• Prairie Populism:
  • Modeled on Tom Harkin—fighting for the middle class, workers, small businesses, and family farms.
  • Rejects Trump’s “faux populism” as benefiting the wealthy ([07:47]).
  • “When you’re talking about SNAP benefits... 90% of the families... are families with children, or families with disabilities or elderly or veterans. And that’s what you’re going to cut just to make tax cuts to billionaires.” — Josh Turek [08:39]
• Common Sense Approach:
  • Shunning party tribalism for bipartisan, pragmatic problem-solving.
  • “About 85% what we want is we want to have functioning schools, infrastructure, a livable wage, people to be able to afford housing and healthcare. That’s what we want... It’s being reasonable and willing to work across the aisle.” — Josh Turek [09:50]

5. The Rise of Populism in the Democratic Party

• Energy Behind Populist Messaging:
  • Host notes Bernie Sanders, AOC, and others drawing big crowds even in red areas ([11:05]).
  • Turek attributes this to systemic inequality and frustration with status quo.
  • “People are realizing... it’s not red versus blue at this point. It’s the 1% versus the 99%.” — Josh Turek [11:46]
• Personal Stakes:
  • Turek links his political involvement to reliance on social safety nets—Medicaid, the ADA, summer lunch programs.
  • “I’m only here because of great things like what my hero Tom Harkin did with the Americans with Disabilities Act.” — Josh Turek [13:04]
  • Turek shares family health challenges, illustrating the real human costs of healthcare gaps ([13:45])
  • “It is fundamentally wrong in this country for people to have to make a decision, ‘Do I pay my bills or do I take my pills?’” — Josh Turek [14:02]

6. Iowa’s Democratic Primary Dynamics

• J.D. Scholten’s Endorsement:
  • Scholten, former candidate and friend, dropped out and endorsed Turek as the best contrast to Joni Ernst on safety nets ([15:17]).
  • “There is no better dichotomy or contrast between Joni Ernst, the national villain, the ‘let them eat cake and let them all die,’ versus the individual... who have lived and survived off these social safety nets.” — Josh Turek [15:40]
• Primary Competition:
  • Host asks about risks from a crowded primary (e.g., Zach Walls, Nathan Sage).
  • Turek remains optimistic: sees many candidates as evidence of energy and opportunity ([17:15]).
  • Stresses his history of winning red districts: “I outperformed [the top of the ticket] by 14 points... Shows that I can win out here.” — Josh Turek [18:11]

7. On Senate Leadership (Schumer)

• Host Asks About Schumer Support ([19:04]):
  • Turek hasn't given it thought—focused on his campaign, not Senate leadership votes ([19:31]).
  • “I’ll worry about 2027 in 2027 if we can pull this off.” — Josh Turek [20:11]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Iowa is a state that has masqueraded as more red than what we are. We, at our essence, are a common sense state.” — Josh Turek [01:26]
• “Enough with the naked corruption. Enough with... the big, beautiful bill where you’re going to cut food assistance and health care so you can just make tax breaks to billionaires. That is wrong.” — Josh Turek [04:22]
• “Prairie populist is someone... fighting for the middle class, workers, small business, small family farms... It’s someone that is looking out for American workers. This is what we’ve gotten away from.” — Josh Turek [07:51]
• “It’s fundamentally wrong to live in the richest country on earth and people are having to declare medical bankruptcy.” — Josh Turek [12:35]

Key Timestamps

• 00:19 — Framing of special election victory and GOP supermajority loss
• 01:12 — Turek on the trend of Democratic special election wins
• 03:30 — On the concrete policy impact of Tuesday’s result
• 04:22 — Kitchen table issues, Medicaid, and rural impacts
• 07:11 — Defining “prairie populism” and Democratic messaging
• 09:50 — Common sense bipartisanship and what Iowans really want
• 11:46 — Populist messaging’s resonance across party lines
• 13:45 — Personal stories highlighting healthcare struggles
• 15:40 — JD Scholten endorsement and the importance of the Democratic primary
• 19:31 — On supporting (or not) Chuck Schumer as Senate leader

Tone and Takeaways

Turek is passionate, pragmatic, and rooted in lived experience as both a disabled Iowan and a statewide elected official in deep-red territory. He consistently returns to the power of common sense, kitchen table issues, and the need for “adults in the room” who can cut through DC tribalism in favor of policies improving daily life. The episode captures optimism in Iowa’s shifting political winds but is grounded in a clear-eyed view of the organizing and coalition-building needed for Democrats to actually flip the state.

For listeners wondering if Iowa is really “in play” for Democrats, this episode offers grounded optimism, a sharp critique of GOP priorities, and a first-person look at how prairie populism might offer a winning path forward.