Bulwark Takes Episode: Dark Horse Predictions for 2026! Is Kash Patel on Borrowed Time? Date: January 2, 2026

Episode Overview

In this forward-looking episode, the Bulwark team delivers their bold and sometimes darkly comic predictions for what 2026 has in store for American politics, media, and culture. The panel forecasts high-stakes drama inside the Trump administration, chaos in right-wing media, disruptive tech backlash, and more than a few plot twists for key political figures. The tone veers from keen analysis to tongue-in-cheek bravado—always sharp, opinionated, and informed by the last tumultuous year in U.S. politics.

Key Discussion Points & Predictions

1. Donald Trump—Health, Power, and MAGA Infighting

• Health Event Prediction:
  Tim Miller revisits his prior year's forecast for a Trump health scare, admitting it hasn’t happened yet but doubling down for 2026, noting Trump’s visibly declining state.

  • “I predicted that Donald Trump would have a health event... I’m sticking with it for 2026.” (Tim Miller, 01:19)

• Expansionist Foreign Policy:
  Miller projects a resurgence of “Monroe Doctrine” assertiveness—potential U.S. action in Venezuela or Greenland—to revamp Trump’s global legacy.

  • “He’s ready to change the narrative by, you know, bringing back the Monroe Doctrine.” (Tim Miller, 01:42)

• MAGA Civil War:
  The expected post-Trump struggle for control erupts early as new right-wing leaders (J.D. Vance, Vivek Ramaswamy, Steve Bannon, Ben Shapiro, Candace Owens) vie for dominance, while Trump appears distracted.

  • “Because [Trump] just seems so caught up in all sorts of other stuff... these fights are going forward without him.” (Tim Miller, 03:35)

2. Congress—Thin Majorities and Gridlock

• House Attendance Woes:
  The razor-thin Republican House majority will exacerbate absenteeism, with at least 18 members seeking other offices, causing legislative paralysis.

  • “They’re not going to have the votes... because people are going to be out on the campaign trail.” (Unknown Speaker, 06:10)

• Cancelled Votes:
  Anticipation of extended voting cancellations due to poor attendance, reminiscent of 2025’s disruptions.

  • “I anticipate... they cancel a lot of votes, more than they normally have.” (Unknown Speaker, 06:45)

3. The “Trump-cession” and Economic Downturn

• Economic Reckoning:
  A prediction that Trump’s promised economic “boom” will collapse into a recession, spelling electoral disaster for Republicans.
  • “The economy actually moves into a recession... and I think that is going to be a big contributor to the wipeout that Republicans experience in 2026.” (Unknown Speaker, 07:21)

4. Liz Cheney’s Big Return

• Back in the Spotlight:
  Detailed background on Cheney’s trajectory from GOP leadership to January 6th committee and academic life—before a comeback.

  • “She produced the best record that we have of the crimes that Trump and his henchmen committed during and leading up to January 6th.” (Unknown Speaker, 08:32)

• Chairing a New Commission:
  If Democrats retake the House, Cheney is primed to chair a new commission (not a committee) investigating Trump’s second-term abuses.

  • “She will be the head of that commission.” (Unknown Speaker, 09:35)
  • Caveat: Timing could push the commission’s official creation into early 2027.

5. Right-Wing Media Turbulence

• Power Vacuums and Infighting:
  The right reacts to electoral setbacks, attempts to distance from Trump, and reels from Charlie Kirk’s assassination, fueling a chaotic information environment.
  • “We’re going to see a lot more chaos, a lot more infighting...” (Unknown Speaker, 11:13)
  • Issues like conspiracies, Israel, and anti-Semitism become major flashpoints.

6. Tech & AI Backlash—The "Touch Grass" Movement

• AI Becomes a Political Flashpoint:
  Lauren Egan forecasts tech populism will shape the midterms, as Democrats seize on regulation, job displacement, and screen-time culture wars.

  • “Pretty big backlash to tech and AI... calling it ‘touch grass populism.’” (Lauren Egan, 12:34)

• AI Deepfakes and Misinformation:
  Surge of synthetic but convincing attack videos aggravates political polarization and complicates campaign strategy.

7. Assertive Federalization of Elections

• Escalating Federal Control:
  Prediction that Trump will seek to federalize a swing state’s election apparatus under dubious legal cover, igniting a constitutional crisis.
  • “Going to try to federalize... a swing state run by a Democratic governor... Put National Guard there to monitor.” (Unknown Speaker, 15:04)
  • The Supreme Court will ultimately have to decide the legality.

8. Unlikely Cabinet Survivors and Administrative Turnover

• Pete Hegseth Remains:
  Despite being seen as a scandal-prone weak link, Hegseth’s incompetence is reason enough to keep him on as Defense Secretary (“never admitting a mistake” mentality).

• Kash Patel on Shaky Ground:
  Bets are on Patel being the first high-profile Trump official ousted before midterms, especially if Democrats rout Republicans.

  • “Of those three, I think cash is the first to go. Shortest tenure for any FBI director in history. Mark it down.” (Unknown Speaker, 28:17)

9. The Fate of Trump’s Tariffs

• Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs:
  Anticipated SCOTUS ruling kills Trump’s “national emergency” tariffs, forcing massive refunds to U.S. companies.

10. Health Care—Back to the Forefront

• 2026 Echoes 2018:
  Health care will be the dominant midterm issue, energized by cuts to Medicaid and Obamacare subsidies. Democrats likely regain the House, then launch internal debates on “what’s next”—potentially big structural overhauls like “Medicare for All.”
  • “Health care will be the number one issue in the 2026 election... Democrats are going to start to have that [big debate] on the day after the election in November.” (Unknown Speaker, 24:38)

11. Media & Entertainment: Warner Brothers and Christopher Nolan

• Who Will Own Warner Brothers?
  No resolution expected in 2026 on the ownership of Warner Brothers—regulatory roadblocks and competitive bids abound.
• Nolan’s "The Odyssey" Predicted as a Smash:
  Expectation of blockbuster success and Oscar glory for Christopher Nolan’s mythic new film.
  • “Number one movie of the year... can’t possibly create a film that generates more excitement for me personally.” (Unknown Speaker, 26:23)

12. The Scorecard on Trump’s “Peace Deals”

• No Lasting Peace:
  Mona Charan predicts that by year’s end, none of Trump’s vaunted eight peace-making efforts will yield actual results—only “occasional ceasefires” that don’t hold.
  • “Not a single one was actually solved... Hard to come up with a single dark horse prediction for 2026...” (Mona Charan, 27:41)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On MAGA Infighting (03:35):
  “The fights are bursting out into the open... and Trump himself is not only not really paying attention to, but seems kind of uninterested in.”
  —Tim Miller

• On Liz Cheney’s Resilience (08:32):
  “She produced the best record that we have of the crimes that Trump and all of his henchmen committed...”
  —Unknown Speaker

• On Tech Populism (12:34):
  “Democrats... calling it touch grass populism. The idea that we should all be spending less time on our screens... and more time invest in real life, real people, real relationships.”
  —Lauren Egan

• On Election Federalization (15:04):
  “Trump is going to try to federalize... a swing state run by a Democratic governor. They’re going to say... ‘we got to control the voting booths.’…”

• On Administrative Turnover (28:17):
  “Of those three, I think cash is the first to go. Shortest tenure for any FBI director in history. Mark it down.”

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Trump Health, Expansion, MAGA Fight: 01:19 – 05:20
• House Attendance & Gridlock: 06:10 – 06:50
• “Trump-cession” Economic Prediction: 07:21 – 07:50
• Liz Cheney’s Return: 08:10 – 09:55
• Right-Wing Media Turbulence: 10:45 – 11:49
• Tech/AI Backlash: 12:34 – 14:35
• Federalizing State Elections: 15:04 – 16:02
• Cabinet Tenure Predictions: 17:05 – 19:13, 28:09 – 28:40
• Trump Tariffs and Supreme Court: 19:14 – 20:13
• Healthcare as 2026’s Top Issue: 24:38 – 25:54
• Warner Bros. Ownership: 26:03 – 26:34
• Film Prediction: 26:34 – 27:06
• Trump Peace Scoring / Admin Turnover: 27:41 – 28:40

Tone and Style Notes

The Bulwark team mixes insight, biting wit, sardonic humor, and the occasional boast. The analysis is rooted in both detail and personal political battlescars, making this annual tradition as sharply entertaining as it is informative.

Summary prepared to engage and update non-listeners with all key ideas, personalities, and the pulse of political speculation for 2026.