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- [00:00]
Sarah Longwell
Hello, everyone. Sarah Longwell here, publisher of the Bulwark. I am here with Lauren Egan. She is the person who knows the most about Democrats donkey business here at the Bulwark. And I wanted to jump on and talk to Lauren, although as soon as I did, I realized we were wearing similarly striped shirts, which is why I look like I was just doing labor on a, like fixing a carburetor and I'm in my plain white tee. Lauren, okay, I loved your newsletter. We did one of these last week. I find myself being like, your newsletters really get my juices flowing. Because this idea about August eating presidencies has been on my mind as we turn the corner into the last month of summer. And I have been wondering because I remember so vividly when Joe Biden went from doing pretty well. You know, the people were liking his rollout on Covid. There was happiness there, elation in the post Trump kind of world. And then, boom, Delta, boom, Afghanistan, pull out. He went under 50% and he basically never recovered. And right around this time, last or that, that first year. So 2021, August 2021, like that is when Joe Biden like, never came back from that. He was never able to do it. And so I was just looking at Nate Silver averages. Joe Biden went down to 10%, like minus 10 in August of 2021. Trump hit minus 10 around July 22, and he's had just a little bit of a bump back. So he's like minus eight and a half right now. On Nate Silver's averages as we go into August, you had a great newsletter about what Dems are going to do to go on offense and try to make sure that August is a bad month for Trump. So tell me what you learned, what their plans are, how they're thinking about it.
- [01:55]
Lauren Egan
You rip yeah. Democrats definitely also have some, you know, PTSD from that period in the Biden administration. And, you know, I covered the Biden White House, and when you look back on it, it was really that summer that, like, in hindsight it was like, oh, shit. Like, that was the moment where everything kind of like slowly started to fall apart. And I think for Afghanistan, a lot of it was Biden looked really weak. And he just confirmed sort of this, like, belief that voters had that he was this weak president, he was, you know, not up for the job, and he couldn't really come back and ever really convince them otherwise. So Democrats now are really trying to learn from that. And they're heading into the recess this August trying to basically make Trump pay As big of a price and Republicans, as big of a price as possible for the big beautiful bill. And for Epstein, I think Epstein, as they see it, is like, kind of a lot easier to sort of make that case on, just because it's what people are paying attention to. And it's obviously like what Republicans are really splintering over in this moment. So you have groups like American Bridge that are sending trackers out to some of these districts, which, if you don't know what a tracker is, it's basically a volunteer or someone that the party pays, and they go and stand at these town halls, or they go and wait outside the members district office and try and basically, like, ask them questions about Epstein, catch them on camera, and hope that those moments kind of go viral and that those can kind of help define what we are all spending the end of the summer talking about. And something else in my reporting that I found really interesting, too, is I talked to a number of Democratic strategists, and I think the thinking was, is traditionally has been that, yeah, this August recess really matters, but it's actually the one that's right before midterms that is the most important. And a lot of these strategists were like, yeah, that might have been true back in the day, but public opinion hardens so much now. And a lot of them are like, we come back from this first summer in a presidency, and a lot of people, like, their opinions start to get baked much sooner than they would have maybe just, you know, like 10, 15 years ago. And so they look at, you know, this recess and this sort of, like, summer break is kind of like a really momentous moment where, like, they've got to sell the case that they're trying to make on Republicans.
- [04:10]
Sarah Longwell
There's a bunch of stuff in here and that jumped out at me, too, in your piece, because I think this is extremely right. And I think it's something that Democrats are only belatedly sort of catching up to, which is the rhythm of politics has changed and that people are sort of evaluating Trump right now. He's getting, like, this look might be his really his only look. And you can see right now in the cratering with Independence, that a bunch of people feel like, I voted for this guy, he's not doing the things I wanted him to do. And, like, the bottom is dropping out of Independence. And Trump often points to polls of Republicans and he's doing well with Republicans. And I'm like, yeah, but that's not why you won the election, guy. Like, you won it because you were able to convince a lot of independents that you were going to do stuff about, you were going to lower the cost of living, which people do not think you're doing, that you were going to have an incredibly transparent presidency, one focused on free speech. And none of that is happening. They're seeing the opposite of that. And if people were game for, you know, his deportations plans, they really believed that it was going to be criminals to people who were doing real damage in America. They didn't think it was going to be just like grabbing people off the streets and ice, you know, wearing face coverings. And so you're seeing your Joe Rogans, your Theo Vaughn's. And I, and I would, I would use them as a stand in for kind of the low info voters, which isn't to say people who don't pay attention to politics at all, but people whose primary interest is not politics, like, they are not following politics closely. They were hoping for something different from Trump. They're not getting it. And, you know, I think about the way in which August has hit a lot of different presidencies. You know, with, with George W. Bush, it was Katrina, and he really never came back from Katrina. I mean, there was lots of other things. There was Iraq and, you know, just people sort of fatigue with that, that war by the end of his presidency. But I was looking at his polling the other day and he left office around 32%. And 32% is a number that I have sort of been targeting for Trump, where I want to get Trump to 32%. Because to me, that's a number where the Republican Party has to look at itself and say, this didn't work. Like, this was a failed experiment. Like, yeah, we got here, but the people are ready for this party to be something different if we're going to continue. And I think that's the best way we sort of exercise, as in like an exorcist, an exorcism exercise, Trump and his particular brand of politics from our politics going forward. Does that sound right to you?
- [06:40]
Lauren Egan
Yeah, totally. And I think, you know, I cover Democrats and I'm focused on what they're doing over recess, but it's also really telling what Republicans do. Like, a lot of them are kind of just going to, at least for House numbers, are going to be hiding from their constituents. It almost seems like, which I think is incredibly telling, like if you can't, you know, show up for like a coffee meeting in your neighborhood or you can't, like hold a town hall, then that Says a lot to me. And I was just before we hopped on, I was going through the list of town halls that are scheduled and just public events that Republicans are holding over the next few weeks. And there's like, four. They're all in really safe seats. And I think that that says a lot. For this piece, I talked to Steve Israel. He's a former congressman from New York, and he was in office during the Tea Party movement. He's a Democrat, and he was talking about how, like, he didn't want to hold a town hall because he knew that people were pissed off during the Tea Party movement. He wanted to hide from. From voters at the time.
- [07:35]
Sarah Longwell
This was how Obama's August went in his. The first time, the first six months of his second term is when the Tea Party movement hit, right?
- [07:44]
Lauren Egan
And so he was talking about how, you know, when he was home for recess, he was weighing whether or not to hold a town hall, and he was just basically speaking to, like, the power of, like, you know, people showing up at your office and being pissed off and how, like, eventually he had to hold some. Hold an event in person. But he was just trying to get at the fact that, like, it says a lot about the. The party when they can't show up and hold public events. And it speaks a lot to how scared they are and just, like, how much trouble that they think that they're actually in.
- [08:15]
Sarah Longwell
What do you think they're the most scared of? Are they more scared of, like, independents and regular people showing up to be like, you guys have not lowered prices? Or are they afraid of MAGA types showing up to be like, why aren't you guys doing anything about Epstein?
- [08:30]
Lauren Egan
I think it's the Epstein stuff, because that is, to me, where they don't really have, like, the great. A great answer on some of that and where they seem just, you know, based off what we saw before they left D.C. where they seem the most squeamish on in Capitol Hill. And frankly, like, that's always been the part of the party where they've been the, you know, most sort of freaked out and running scared by. And clearly that's what Democrats think that they're the most sort of unnerved by, because even in some of these districts, Democrats are running like billboards about Epstein. There's one in Johnson's, Mike Johnson's district. So I think really trying to, like, you know, just make them feel like, as much heat as possible and just as squeamish about it as possible.
- [09:14]
Sarah Longwell
What do you think has happened for Democrats where they kind of went from worrying that Epstein might be a distraction to feeling like it's a. They can go on offense on this. Like, what. What memo did they get where they realized that this was fertile territory for an offense attack.
- [09:31]
Lauren Egan
I think they finally just kind of started to wake up to the reality of the attention economy, which I know that we've talked about before, and that they can't always sort of like, pick their. The turf that. That they're messaging on. And, like, you know, when I was talking to strategists, a lot of them were like, yeah, look like we kind of Democrats, like, stick their nose up at some of this. Like, this was. Epstein was always, like, the conversation that was happening on, like, the BRO Podcast. And Democrats just have always felt, like, too buttoned up or too, like, proper for that conversation. And I do think over, like, the past. The past few months, there's been some, like, you know, tough conversations among Democrats about, like, how they have to get over some of that. And if voters are wanting to talk about, Epstein will, like, sorry that you, like, think that it's, you know, beneath you to talk about, like, get over it. That's what. Where you're going to be able to draw people into your message and then, you know, broaden the upstream conversation out from there about messaging about, you know, Trump's really just here to protect elites, etcetera, etcetera. So I think it's been like, a slow roll over the past few months. I mean, even if you think back to January, it does seem like from January until now, Democrats have grown a bit more of a stomach for that fight, that fighting feel that voters say that they want. And I think this is just kind of like part of that dynamic.
- [10:49]
Sarah Longwell
I think that's right. I do. Sometimes it drives me crazy that Democrats can't see where, like, they've been given manna from heaven on a messaging. Like, they. And it's not even. This is just. Trump does not want to talk about this. He wants us to go away more than I've ever seen him want something to go away. And as a result, he's fumbling left and right. I mean, even today the story is. Because he said over the weekend and I was on vacation and. But even I went, oh, my gosh, what a. What a. What a crazy thing to say where he. Instead of saying he. His base had been running cover for him, he kicked Epstein out of Mar a Lago because the guy was a creep. And Trump's like, no, no, he was stealing my people Which. And he keeps saying that. He doesn't say my employees. He doesn't say members of my team.
- [11:46]
Lauren Egan
He's, like, just getting, like, weirder and creepier.
- [11:49]
Sarah Longwell
Like, honestly, did you see what he said with. About. What did he call them? He called something that was very. He has, like, a very ownership with way of talking about it.
- [12:00]
Lauren Egan
Yeah, exactly. My employees. Yeah. My people. Yeah. And he was just asked about it on the plane, too. You know, were they young girls? And he just, like, this, like, narrative that Trump's a fantastic messenger is, like, both true and not true. You know what I mean? Because it's like, the guy cannot, like, shut this down. And to your point, like, Democrats have been given a gift with this, and I think that they're doing a good job on Epstein, but they're not doing, like, a perfect job. I mean, Nancy Pelosi at first was calling this a distraction. So I think even in the past two weeks, they've gotten better on Epstein. But, like, you know, why was she calling this a distraction two weeks ago? You know, there was some frustration in the party that, like, there was even sort of, like, you know, they were slow to get out of the gate on this.
- [12:43]
Sarah Longwell
Well, I think that they want to talk about health care. I mean, I think part of it totally the big deal, you know, people, it's really unpopular. It feels like it plays into the thing that voters try. Like, if you're. I can just see it, you're a Democratic operative, and you're saying to them, okay, voters, you get the highest marks on health care. That's what voters trust you the most on. They don't trust Republicans as much. They just cut health care for millions of people and gave billionaires big tax breaks. And, like, that's your sweet spot. Stay right there. Don't move. Don't say anything crazy. And all it takes is just the slightest bit of imagination to see how Jeffrey Epstein. And we talked about this last week, right? Jeffrey Epstein is the protecting of elites at the expense of victims. At the expense. And I think, you know, because this is political fodder, and, like, it's a serious question about Trump's behavior. It's a serious question about Trump's judgment, which we've always known as terrible. But, like, this one is a call coming from inside the House where his people have been focused on this. And so there's just a real opportunity to wrench people away from Trump who come to him for sort of, like, casual reasons. But at the center of it is the fact that, like, girls were Harmed here. Girls were hurt and, and sexually assaulted. And Republicans have been using this idea of creating a. And I think for people who are just casual political observers, they don't realize how much on the right, and this is kind of a will Summer, you know, swims in this particular toxic pond. But they, their idea that there is a global cabal of pedophiles that are mainly Democrats and Hollywood and Hillary Clinton, like, this is stuff that really does stir a not insignificant portion of the conspiratorial right. And for people who are like, have decided their moral high ground, right, that they, they believe they have moral high ground because the Democrats are pedophiles. Yes, Trump did January 6th. Trump did. But these guys are pedophiles. And for them, like, you either have to be sincere in your condemnation of pedophiles and people who sexually assault minors. If you're sincere in that, then you got to take a hard look at why Trump doesn't want to talk about this. And all of the weird things he said over the years about, well, Ivanka at 17 made me promise not to date anyone younger than her. But the older she gets, the harder that's getting and like the weird. His, his, I mean, very long term relationship with Maxwell, Ghislaine Maxwell, and the fact that he's clearly dangling a pardon in front of her right now through his DOJ in the hopes that she will give testimony exonerating her, which means there's this weird movement on the right to try to say, yeah, no, she's. She, you can trust her. She would be a, she would be a perfectly, you know, good person to take whose word to take. So I guess, yeah, obviously this is fertile territory. You do want to just shake people sometimes, but not just as a political issue is like a meaningful issue around who our president is and what our attorney general says.
- [15:52]
Lauren Egan
Right. I mean, even some Democrats that I were talking, was talking with were like, we need to stop using the word conspiracy related to Epstein because, like, there are like, hard facts here. Like, this isn't all just like a conspiracy. Like, the man did awful, awful things and that's not a conspiracy. Conspiracy.
- [16:07]
Sarah Longwell
Right.
- [16:08]
Lauren Egan
And so, you know, even some strategists were talking to folks on the Hill, like, don't use the word conspiracy. Like, that's, that's not what we need to do here. And you know, just to the point too, about, like, Democrats wanting to talk about health care. I mean, you know, I think a lot of operatives are pretty honest. Like, you're not getting booked on the Avon show or on the Flagrant podcast, if your pitch is you want to go and talk about Medicaid cuts, like, you're getting booked because you're saying you're going to show up and talk about Epstein and you can work in health care cuts to that message. But I think that that is something that the parties realized and kind of, you know, come around to sort of engaging on Epstein.
- [16:47]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. And look, I'm sympathetic to the idea that, like, hey, I don't want to do gutter politics and I don't want to, you know, this isn't the Epstein. Because, like, if, if you're a sincere politician, you're saying whether or not Epstein killed himself or even what Trump did when he was in his 30s and 40s, like, that's not putting food on people's plates. Like, that's not a kitchen table issue. That's not what people sit around and worry about at their kitchen tables. And like, there is some truth to that. Right? It is, it is fair to say that Donald Trump has dragged our politics into the gutter in ways that. That are our media and Democrats as an opposition party, that none of them have been quite, well, like, know how to handle. I feel gross sometimes just talking about the gross stuff around Trump. It's like, not what you want to talk about. It's not why you were interested in politics. That being said, Epstein as a kitchen table issue, it may not be like the thing, but it is something people are talking about at their kitchen tables. Like it is.
- [17:48]
Lauren Egan
Yeah. And, you know, to that point, Rahm Emanuel, who, you know, is, I think we can safely assume, clearly gearing up for a presidential run, he had an op ed kind of related to this a few months ago now, where it was related to, like, crime and kind of like Democrats can say they want to talk about kitchen table issues, but don't ignore crime, don't ignore more social issues like trans sports. And his point was basically like, people sit around their kitchen table and they talk about those things too. And if you ignore those issues, you do it at your peril. And, and it can't just be the economics and the health care. Like, that stuff really, really matters. But that is not the only thing that at the end of the day, people go home and talk about families.
- [18:29]
Sarah Longwell
It's a new environment, and you got to be able to walk and chew gum and, and understand that. This is one of the things that I think is sort of newly axiomatic about politics, which is it used to be that politics was downstream from culture and Now, I don't think they're down if they're not entirely fused. They are at least not so much downstream as down puddle or something like they're very close. They're very closely related. All right, what else did you learn in your reporting? Was there anything else you wanted to throw in there about how Democrats are going to go on offense this August to try to push Trump into the depths of a polling spiral that he cannot recover from?
- [19:13]
Lauren Egan
I think the big thing is, Epstein, there's going to be ads. If you live in a district that is even somewhat purplish, you are probably going to start seeing them in the coming days. And then Democrats are also going to start holding their own town halls in these seats where Republicans are hiding from, from the public. So I'm, I'm, I'm fascinated to see how they sort of try and get themselves out there on TikTok and on social media. That's been like a big push for this August. So we'll see how that goes. Obviously looming over all of this is the redistricting stuff, which is kind of threatening to sort of totally upend recess and eat up all of our attention.
- [19:55]
Sarah Longwell
You know, it's not going to do the same kind of numbers as Epstein information. But I got to say, that redistricting story there in Texas is really, really worth us. We should do a whole video on that. It's not just the issue of redistricting. It's the way that Democrats, because they are good in their hearts, unilaterally disarm in some of these fights. They didn't know they were doing it exactly, but back when they all decided they were going to put in these sort of nonpartisan boards that would oversee. That only happened in blue states. And so now you find yourselves in these tougher situations where a place like Texas, like they are playing constitutional hardball is what Republicans are playing. They're like, how can we squeeze more seats out of Texas? How can we squeeze more seats out of these red states? How can we do mid, mid, mid decade redistricting? Yeah, mid decade redistricting. Those are pure power plays, pure political power plays. And I think that it's fine for Democrats not to be the ones that sort of start that process, but they should be in a position to answer it when it, when Republicans do it and they're in a tough situation right now.
- [21:12]
Lauren Egan
Yeah, we should totally keep talking about this, but it's a classic example of like, Democrats thinking that some, someone's like playing ref here and is going to give them A point for being the good guys or for playing by the rules. And like, Republicans just, no one's going to do that and Republicans aren't playing by those rules. And so this is a case where like all these independent redistricting committees, while they're really well intentioned and I think trying to fix a huge problem in our political system, like all Democrats have done, has, you know, they've just shot themselves in the foot and given Republicans a bit of a leg up when it comes to, to redistricting. But they're trying, I think, right before you and I hopped on, actually, I think some lawmakers in New York are proposing a bill that would allow them to redraw congressional lines if another state does it first. So.
- [22:00]
Sarah Longwell
Love that.
- [22:01]
Lauren Egan
Yeah, I mean, you know, it's, it's still, it'll be a hurdle because they're a state that has an independent commission. So there will for sure be challenges, but Democrats are trying to fight back. So I think it's gonna be kind of a long and messy few weeks of that, though, because we'll get the Texas, Texas special session wraps up in the next few weeks, so we'll know by the end of August, essentially, like how, how big of a mess is this and how big of a problem are Democrats facing?
- [22:31]
Sarah Longwell
All right. Well, we're going to keep an eye on whether or not Democrats are actually doing what they're saying and going on offense here in August. And we'll see if by the end of August, Trump is down, you know, in double digits underwater. Lauren, thank you for jumping on and talking about this with me. I loved your column. Everybody should go sign up for the Bulwark and get Lawrence E. They'll get emailed right to you. Most of them are free. Occasionally they're gated, but almost never. So subscribe to this channel. Go subscribe to the board, get all our free stuff. We'll see you guys next time. Thanks, Lauren.