Democrats in Crisis! Party Hits Record Low Favorability Amid Schumer Revolt!

Summary

Bulwark Takes Podcast Summary Episode: Democrats in Crisis! Party Hits Record Low Favorability Amid Schumer Revolt! Release Date: March 16, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, host Sam Stein engages in an in-depth discussion with Lauren Egan, author of the influential Opposition newsletter, to dissect the alarming decline in the Democratic Party's favorability ratings. Tapping into recent poll data and internal party dynamics, Stein and Egan explore the root causes of this crisis, focusing particularly on Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's controversial actions and the broader implications for the party's future.

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Record Low Favorability Ratings for Democrats

The conversation kicks off with Sam Stein highlighting recent poll findings that indicate a historic low in the Democratic Party's favorability:

• CNN Survey: "Democratic Party's favorability rating among all Americans is at just 29%. That is a record low since the network started polling in 1992." [00:00]

• NBC News Poll: "Just 27% of registered voters have a positive view of the Democratic Party. That is also an all-time low since they started polling in 1990." [00:00]

Stein points out that these polls were conducted before the Senate Democratic leadership's vote for a Republican-authored funding bill, suggesting that the current favorability ratings might decline even further due to the ensuing Democratic backlash.

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Factors Behind the Decline

Lauren Egan offers her insights into why the Democratic Party is facing such declining numbers:

• Desire for Strong Leadership Against Trump: Egan notes, "Democratic voters want to see party leaders to fight against Trump, to push back against Trump. There's a sense among the party that there's no strong leaders in the Democratic Party." [01:58]

• Perception of Rudderlessness: Both hosts agree that the lack of cohesive leadership has left voters feeling disconnected and dissatisfied. Stein adds, "If the party's voters thought that the party had their together, these numbers would be better." [03:07]

• Exhaustion from Previous Movements: Egan reflects on past movements like the Women's March, suggesting that "there is exhaustion with some of it" and that similar outlets for political expression are missing this time around. [05:24]

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Internal Party Dissatisfaction

The discussion delves into internal conflicts within the Democratic Party:

• Democrats Criticizing Themselves: Stein observes, "This is all driven by Democrats being pissed off." [02:53] The conversation underscores that intra-party disagreements are significantly contributing to the low favorability ratings.

• Historical Comparison: Egan compares the current situation to the party's response during Trump's first term, noting that voters now expect more proactive leadership rather than seeking compromises. [04:10]

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The Role of Leadership: Focus on Chuck Schumer

A substantial portion of the episode centers on Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and his role in the current crisis:

• Schumer at a Crossroads: Egan expresses surprise at the tangible unrest surrounding Schumer, stating, "He's in trouble." [06:14] She notes the immediate backlash following his recent speech and anticipates protests during his upcoming book tour. [06:14]

• Schumer's Defense and Leadership Style: Schumer has been actively defending his position, likening his role to "leading an orchestra" and emphasizing the collective effort required within the party. [07:38] Despite his efforts, Egan believes Schumer is unlikely to back down, drawing parallels to President Biden's struggles but highlighting that Schumer still possesses considerable staying power. [08:23]

• Questions About Schumer's Effectiveness: Both hosts question whether Schumer has the necessary qualities to navigate the party through this tumultuous period. Stein remarks, "Does he have what it takes to meet this moment?" [08:44] Egan critiques Schumer's ability to persuasively communicate and unify the party, which is crucial for consolidating voter support. [09:03]

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Impact of Schumer's Book Tour and Public Perception

The episode further examines the implications of Schumer's book tour:

• Timing and Public Reaction: Egan highlights the challenging timing of Schumer's book, noting, "The book is very serious... but it's opportunistic. It couldn't be worse timing." [10:48] She anticipates significant protests and interruptions during his public appearances, similar to what fellow Democrat Hakeem Jeffries has experienced. [10:59]

• Perceived Opportunities for the Party: The lack of a unifying movement or cause has left the party without a rallying point to mitigate dissatisfaction. Stein conjectures that without additional motivating factors, such as a grassroots movement, the negative perceptions may persist. [05:09]

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Prospects for Debt Ceiling Negotiations

The conversation shifts to the potential impact of the Democratic crisis on upcoming debt ceiling negotiations:

• Uncertainty in Strategy: Both hosts express uncertainty about how the Democratic Party will approach the debt ceiling issue. Egan admits, "I don't think we really know yet," [11:24] while Stein speculates that Trump's intransigence may render Democratic leverage ineffective. [11:28]

• Potential Showdowns: Stein muses, "There's such an appetite to have some sort of showdown and get some sort of concessions from demonstration," suggesting that high-stakes negotiations could either empower or further weaken the party's standing. [11:28]

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Final Thoughts: Future of the Democratic Party

In their concluding remarks, Stein and Egan ponder the long-term outlook for the Democratic Party:

• Temporary vs. Long-Term Decline: Egan remains cautiously optimistic, stating, "It'll get better for them eventually," though acknowledging uncertainty about the timeline. [12:11] However, Stein expresses skepticism, proposing that current poll numbers might be a reflection of transient dissatisfaction that could shift as elections approach. [12:20]

• Economic Concerns as a Double-Edged Sword: Egan notes concerning economic indicators, such as only 18% of voters rating the economy as excellent or good, signaling broader dissatisfaction that could harm the Democratic Party further. [13:25]

• Potential for Voter Mobilization: Despite low favorability, Egan highlights that strong feelings within the party could translate into energy and organization for upcoming midterm elections, suggesting that the party's base remains passionate even amidst challenges. [12:52]

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Conclusion

The episode "Democrats in Crisis! Party Hits Record Low Favorability Amid Schumer Revolt!" offers a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted challenges facing the Democratic Party. From historic lows in favorability ratings to internal leadership struggles and contentious public appearances by key figures like Chuck Schumer, Stein and Egan provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the current political landscape. As the party navigates these turbulent waters, the insights shared in this episode underscore the critical need for unified leadership and strategic action to restore voter confidence and party cohesion.

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For more insightful discussions and analyses, subscribe to Bulwark Takes and stay informed with The Bulwark team.

Transcript

[Sam Stein]

Hey, guys. Sam Stein, managing editor of the Bulwark here, along with Lauren Egan, author of the Opposition newsletter. It's like easily one of the top five newsletters out there right now on the market. She's only done two editions. Okay, sorry. Top. Top 10. Top 10. Let's just leave it at. We're gonna, we're gonna get into the topics that you're writing about, but before we do that, subscribe to the feed as usual. All right, so let's start with the polls. Basically, it's Sunday. A number of polls came out this morning. They were very bleak for Democrats. I'm gonna get into two of them. So CNN survey says Democratic Party's favorability rating among all Americans is at just 29%. That is a record low since the network started polling in 1992. Wow. NBC News found that just 27% of registered voters have a positive view of Democratic Party. That is also an all time low since they started polling in 1990. Here's the catch. Both of those polls were done before the Senate Democratic leadership voted for the Republican authored funding bill, which has enraged Democrats. So it's possible that this goes even lower. This is bad for Democrats. I have a theory about why, but I want your take first.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah. I don't think it can get much worse for Democrats.

[Sam Stein]

It could get worse. It could get worse. It can.

[Lauren Egan]

I mean, this is pretty low. I mean, these, this is a historic low in, what, 30 years since they started polling these. Almost 30 years.

[Sam Stein]

That's very good.

[Lauren Egan]

Over 30 years. Thank you. You're right. You're right. You know, I wasn't that far off.

[Sam Stein]

33 years. 33 years, yeah. So you think it, you think it can't get lower?

[Lauren Egan]

Well, obviously can get lower, but this is bad.

[Sam Stein]

What do you think are the factors here?

[Lauren Egan]

I think what Democratic voters want to see right now is. I think it was. NBC had an interesting tidbit. Their poll where they were like, the last time Trump was president. We saw voters at the beginning of the Trump administration wanted to see Democrats work with Trump to try and get some priorities passed. They now kind of are like, that's not. We know that that's not realistic. We've done this before. We know that's not how it's actually going to pan out. So what they want is party leaders to fight against Trump, to push back against Trump. And there's just a sense among the party that there's no strong leaders in the Democratic Party. No one actually has kind of the guts, you know, or sort of like the energy to really go after him in a meaningful and a persuasive way. And I think that's. That's how I read this. And that's. That's what we're seeing in the polls, I think today that just came out.

[Sam Stein]

It is interesting. I sort of. My read, too. I think a lot of this is just, you know, Democrats hating on Democrats right now. Right. Like, if. If the party's voters thought that the party had their together, these numbers would be better.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah. Like, this is all driven by Democrats being pissed off.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. Like Republicans are not going to approve the democracy.

[Lauren Egan]

Right.

[Sam Stein]

And it's in these polls. It's like Independence didn't have, like, a particularly positive view of Trump either. It's just they, you know, they don't think Democratic Party has much to offer them. And I do think a lot of it is just the sense that this party is kind of rudderless and that they don't have. There's not really a leadership. There is a real leadership vacuum. Although I'm trying to remember, like in 2017, 2018, I guess Pelosi was there, but they were in the minority then, too. Was there a similar gripes that the party just didn't have good leaders? I can't recall.

[Lauren Egan]

I don't remember that from 2017. And again, these polls, these are historic lows. So. Right. So obviously the same level of dissatisfaction wasn't there, but I think that that's part of, you know, the first time.

[Sam Stein]

I think, yeah, maybe it's just like they. We experienced Trump before and for Democrats are like, we know what he is. Right.

[Lauren Egan]

Right. I think the first time around, even if you, like, wanted to see some more from leadership, even if you had some disagreements, it was all everyone trying to figure it out. We didn't know what kind of President Trump was going to be. There was a lot of wild cards, a lot of unknowns. We know a lot now. And so I think any sort of grace that some voters are willing to extend to the party the first time around, that's totally out the window this time.

[Sam Stein]

And the first time around, there was all these popular movements, though, too. Right. Like the Women's March right. At that time really galvanized people and gave them sort of a way to, you know, basically channel their anger and their fears and their sadness. And that is not. There's no outlet right now for that. The. There is. And I wonder if that would be. If that. If the absence of that would, you know, affect these poll numbers. Right. If you had some sort of movement to latch on to. If you had some sort of cause that you could support, maybe you wouldn't care as much about what the Democratic Party isn't doing, but they don't have that.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah, I just think that there's a sense that, like, that was all fine and good the first time around, but, like, the second time around, like, that's just not enough.

[Sam Stein]

Why isn't it there the second time around? I've kind of struggled with that question.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah, I don't have a great answer to it. I think, like, part of it is there is a sense of, like, okay, like, so what? So what? We all go march on the National Mall? Like, what is that gonna do for us? We've done it before. He's still president. Well, there's a bit of an exhaustion with some of it.

[Sam Stein]

You know, I think there's exhaustion. I think there's got to be exhaustion. I mean, I get it.

[Lauren Egan]

I guess what I'm trying to get at is, like, there's a sense of, like, it's almost just, like, a little too cute to do that this time around in some ways. You know what I mean?

[Sam Stein]

All right. Yeah. So you've been calling around all week about Schumer specifically because more than anyone else, he kind of finds himself at a crossroads. And he also, more than anyone else, is not personified as this older generation Dem who doesn't quite get it. What was your main takeaway from your reporting?

[Lauren Egan]

I was pretty surprised by how many people were just kind of like, he's. He's in trouble. He is. He really, though, that's the thing. A lot of strategists were like, I'm surprised by how real this feels. At the same time, what's the solution? You know, I think a lot of people were kind of caught off guard by how sort of visceral a lot of the anger felt and how immediate the backlash was. You know, it was within seconds of him giving that speech that you saw activists and organizers kind of start to organize protests when he's on book tour next week and all that kind of stuff, which, again, the Democratic Party needs to have a meeting about how they maybe should cool it on the book tours.

[Sam Stein]

What is their desire? Yeah, what is their desire to write books right now? I don't get it. He. He's basically been doing the rounds, though. Obviously, he feels like, you know, he needs to defend his position. But also, I. I take that as him sort of recognizing that he's in some trouble. What has he been saying?

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah, I mean, he's kind of been digging in and he did an interview with the New York Times that was supposed to be about his book and obviously turned in to be a bit about. About the vote. That happens.

[Sam Stein]

It's gonna be like an all time bad book tour. I feel like it's just not gonna go well.

[Lauren Egan]

You know, he's kind of pointed the fact that he's had a good track record of winning Senate seats, that he knows that, you know, it's not just up to any one leader. He likened himself to, you know, he's. He's leading an orchestra and there's different roles for a lot of different people to play. But I mean, anyone who knows Schumer well says there's just like no chance he's going to just willingly go, that he's going to dig. Dig in. So. And you know, we've talked about how this has some, you know, eerily similar to Biden over the summer, although I think Schumer has more staying power.

[Sam Stein]

Schumer's not like ducking media. And he doesn't look, I mean, he's old, but he doesn't feel infirm the way Biden did or have. And there's not questions about cognitive ability. It's really just vigor. It's like the ability. That's it, right?

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah, yeah, it's. Yeah. I think it's like, does he. What you hear from everyone is like, does he have what it takes to meet this moment?

[Sam Stein]

But that's so ambiguous. What does it take?

[Lauren Egan]

I know, I know. Meet this moment has like been overused as a phrase in the past.

[Sam Stein]

And even if, even if it wasn't a cliche, but, like, what does it mean? Does he have what it takes? Like, is he gonna, like, set fire to, you know, a. A building? Is that what it takes? I don't know what it takes. What does it take?

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah, I think, like, it was a sense of he didn't have what it takes to explain what it takes. That he doesn't have the ability to persuasively communicate and explain to the public his vote.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah.

[Lauren Egan]

And get people on board, like, either direction. Because I think what you hear from a lot of people is like, okay, this was not. Dems were in a bad position. It was bad option either direction. But we don't have a leader who can kind of bring the public on board with us, who can get the party all together and in line and explain to the voters, here's why we have to vote to keep the government open. And this is why this is the best option or whatever direction you're going to go in that no one can organize.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. The biggest that was. That's it. It's like that's the complaint I heard the most is like it's one thing to do what you did and vote for this bill, but like they, they you should have at least had like a plan heading into it. And when the House Democrats all voted against it and you were talking about, you know, you yourself were saying fight, we're gonna fight them, we're gonna fight him. And then you just don't like that's not, it's not a plan or it's not at least a plan that you executed on. Let's hope so. That was to them like they thought, well if you're gonna at least, if you're gonna follow, you gotta fall correctly. But he's not going anywhere. No one thinks he's going anywhere and he's not up until 2028.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah. And like unlike the Biden situation, it's, it's not like there's an election tomorrow and we have to act fast. This is kind of a bit of a long Runway but I mean he's, he's got a really tough path ahead of him because he's for sure going to get protested a bunch next week when he's on bookdoor. Lol. And then it's a, it's a legitimate.

[Sam Stein]

Let's just be clear. The book is very serious. It's about the rise of anti Semitism this country. But it's opportun. It's like the couldn't be worse timing. It's just he's going to get heckled not.

[Lauren Egan]

And the reason I'm laughing about it is because Hakeem Jeffries also wrote a book.

[Sam Stein]

Hakeem was also just came back from.

[Lauren Egan]

Book tour and he got protested and interrupted at these book tours. And I think it just kind of, you know, crystallizes like Dems want their leaders to be fighting whatever that means to them.

[Sam Stein]

Did you pick up any sense that they're going to fight the debt ceiling because of this or do we not know yet?

[Lauren Egan]

I don't think we really know yet. I don't know. What's your sense on it?

[Sam Stein]

Well, I don't know. I go back and forth on the one hand like there's such a, you know, appetite to like have some sort of showdown and get some sort of concessions from demonstration. But on the other hand it's like if you thought the stakes too high over government shutdown, then it's definitely higher for a debt ceiling default, so.

[Lauren Egan]

Right. So, I mean, the Dems are kind of, they're kind of in the same position.

[Sam Stein]

Like, they will be in the same exact position. I, I just don't. I just don't know. I mean, I, in theory, he could have some leverage there, but he literally just folded. So I think Trump will call his bluff, and that's part of the problem. All right, final thoughts. So does it get better for the Democrats or are they going to stick in the mid to high 20s?

[Lauren Egan]

That's such a tough question. It'll get better for them eventually. I don't know when that happens. I do think that there were some positive theory.

[Sam Stein]

I don't think this matters. I honestly don't. I think.

[Lauren Egan]

What do you mean?

[Sam Stein]

Like the polls or what these polls? I think ultimately are going to be. We're going to forget that this was. This even happened. I have a theory that, like, this is just Democratic dissatisfaction and that as they get closer to an election, the numbers will shift. People are going to just be galvanized around Trump. He's the incumbent, he's the one in charge. And this is not going to be a referendum on the Democratic Party. It will matter potentially for primaries if they get. If we see some sort of Tea Party like wave. But, yeah, by 22, have a really six. It's not going to make.

[Lauren Egan]

We have such a long time. I mean, I know the voters are clearly really upset, but it's also not a bad thing that they are. They feel so strongly, you know, there is energy on that side of the party. And there were signs in that poll that I think were positive, boring for Trump and positive for, for Democrats that they're, you know, trying to organize around midterms. I think, you know, the NBC poll is something like just 18% of voters rated the economy is excellent or good, which is not great. I think for NBC, that was the lowest that they had.

[Sam Stein]

There's a lot of lows in these polls.

[Lauren Egan]

It was the lowest since, like 24. It was the lowest since 2014 for them. So not a historic low, but that's not good. And that's. Does that surprise you?

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, well, the economy really sucked in like 2008 and 2009, so I figured there would be that, but we'll see. All right, let's leave it there. Everyone should check out the opposition. It's coming out tonight. Subscribe to the feed. Subscribe to the newsletter. Good luck to your Vanderbilt Commanders.

[Lauren Egan]

Thanks, Sam. Appreciate it.

[Sam Stein]

Did I get the mascot correct? All right. My Yukon Huskies will definitely be making the tourney. Talk to y'all. Talk to y'all later. Goodbye.