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- [00:00]
John Avalon
Gaines Super Flings are here to take your laundry to the next level.
- [00:04]
Sam Stein
Talking about Gain Super Flings, super size laundry packs.
- [00:09]
John Avalon
These things are huge.
- [00:11]
Sam Stein
Super fresh, super clean Gain Super Flings. Gain Super Flings Laundry packs have four times the oxy cleaning power and three times the Febreze Freshness versus Gain Original liquids. Super fresh, super clean Gain Super Flings. Gain super flings for next level laundry. Hey, everybody, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bullock. Here, my bud, John Avalon, who's looking sharp for election Post Election morning. You look good. Look at me. I look terrible.
- [00:40]
John Avalon
You know, I, I, I, I feel rough, but, you know, compensating. But we gotta, gotta, got a big day ahead. There's a lot of data to go through and yeah, writing to be done. So.
- [00:51]
Sam Stein
Well, John's up in New York, which was not the epicenter, but one of the epicenters of the election night last night for his historic election of Zora man as the next mayor of New York City. Let's nerd out a little bit. You've been crunching the data on what happened here and tell me what you've been finding and what your takeaways are.
- [01:11]
John Avalon
Well, first, the big picture is if you look down ballot, Democrats made gains in every swing district and we'll talk about New York City. But New York City is inherently an outlier, right? From a national perspective, the fact that Mikey Sheryl and Abigail Spanberger both won decisively. Right. And they are centrist members of Congress, former members of Congress who have national security military backgrounds, and they focused on affordability. They didn't get dragged into a lot of the culture war stuff. And they won. I mean, overwhelmingly. I mean, virtually literally every district in New Jersey voted more Democratic than it did last year. The big swing counties all went for Mikey Sherrill and Citrelli performed well in places like Monmouth. But again, every county in New Jersey moved in the Democrats direction. And this is a state that Trump had a 10 point gain in 2024 over his 2020 number. So that shows a number of things. One, the Latino voters who went for Trump last time did not show up this time or actively voted against him. But also this message works. And that's why there's the continuity between the two. In Virginia, I mean, there were, I think five counties that did go more Republican, but they were all under 10,000. I mean, Loudoun county, right, which, you know, a decade ago had been a prototypical swing county, went 29 points for Abigail Spanberger.
- [02:38]
Sam Stein
And people should remember Loudoun, Loudoun was the, was the bellwether for Harris. That was how we knew Harris was not gonna do well. Cause Loudoun was a lot closer than people had assumed it was going to be. And then we're like, oh no, that's not good for her.
- [02:50]
John Avalon
And right around, you know, the Obama elections, Loudoun was one of the places that was considered sort of a key swing in Virginia's shift. So. So that's a very big deal, it seems to me. And again, so I think that the macro story nationally should be more focused on Spanberger and Mikey Sherrill. That said, a lot of the attention, understandably is in the historic mayor's race and certainly Republicans.
- [03:16]
Sam Stein
Well, we got an east coast bias here, man. What, what can I say? We just, we're in the tri state air. Well, I'm not interested. I was born in the tri state area, but that's what people care about.
- [03:25]
John Avalon
Well, look, I mean, it's America's largest city, elected a 34 year old Muslim socialist, which is extraordinary on any number of measures, right? I mean, and you got to give Mamdani credit for building a campaign from zero to winning the Democratic nomination. And, and there's a lot to be learned, but I think it might be not the lessons that everybody takes from it. So I want to take a step back on New York for a bit. So first of all, they haven't counted all the ballots. When all the ballots are counted, it may be that he's just under 50% right now. He's just a shy of a beat above this was he won over a million votes, right. Cast for mom Donnie. By contrast, Mike Bloomberg was elected mayor with around 750,000. Ballpark, right? But Cuomo got over 800,000. If you look at the map, this was the most, not just the highest turnout election, but the most competitive general election we've seen for mayor in, in decades. And if you look, I mean, you know, the Manhattan was, was split. You know, Brooklyn split Queens. There's an east west access, so, so, you know, Mamdani's got a lot of, a lot of work to do where he really cleaned up. 84% of women, I think, under 35 voted for Mamdani. Cuomo won voters over 45. So there's an age split here in addition to all the other demographic deals. And that's why, you know, those of us who are not Democratic socialists who recognize that Mamdani ran an unbelievable campaign. And Cuomo was a very flawed candidate in many respects. He's got a lot of work to do because the job of mayor and I've worked in City hall, it's basically to be a non ideological problem solver. And his speech last night was very, very ideological out of the gate. It was a tonal shift from the way he campaigned.
- [05:17]
Sam Stein
Yeah, I was a little bit stunned by it, honestly. Yeah. You know, the speech was very, very much shot at Donald Trump and did get Andrew Cuomo. Now look, Andrew Cuomo towards the end of the campaign was basically tying Mamdani to 9 11. I'm sure that didn't go over very well on a personal, which is unacceptable. Yeah. And, and obviously the national Republican Party, including Trump, were doing similar stuff, but he had differently, he had campaigned about in, in a different posture than that. So it was a little bit surprising to me. Back to the data for a second. You, and you, you've heard this too? Because I heard it a ton, which was, and this is not just in New York City, but also people were somewhat convinced that Mamdani's presence on the ballot was going to affect New Jersey as well. In which, you know, people who work in finance, upper middle class New Yorkers were going to say, ooh, I don't like the direction the Democratic Party's going to. I, I, I, I, I'm not gonna side myself with this. And that obviously did not happen in New Jersey. Obviously it's different races. Right. But maybe it did happen. I, I'm looking at this. The data you presented is that the people who are over 45 did not side with him. But what do you make of sort of the anecdotal stuff that I'm sure you heard too, prior to this, which was, you know, they will ultimately go with Cuomo because they just don't like the uncertainty.
- [06:43]
John Avalon
Look, I think, you know, we've seen that Republicans already yesterday, before the votes. I mean, Karl Rove called Mamdani the gift that's going to keep giving. Right. They are going to try to demonize the new mayor of New York and make him assemble for the national party. But to your point, voters in New Jersey, across the river, didn't fall for that. No, I mean, I think, you know, here's where Trump's deep unpopularity, he's at 30% with, with independence, 48% strong disapprove. His is, you know, playing politics with the Gateway Tunnel, which is a big deal for New Jersey. And just generally the divisive way he's gone about governing, not a surprise to folks like you or me, but hurt Republicans in New Jersey, hurt Republicans in Virginia. In New York, I'll say Nassau County, Republicans did well. Bruce Blakeman reelected county executive, possible gubernatorial candidate at least. Stefanik is expected to announce for that race very soon. In Suffolk County, Democrats did make some gains on a local level. You know, and so those are, those, some of those races are still being hand counted right now. But I think you're seeing that, you know, it may be polarizing in sort of, you know, eastern New York City, western Long Island, Nassau in particular. But there's a lot of unifying that needs to be done. And that's why the tonal shift for Mamdani was, was so stark. Not that he's taken a dig at Cuomo and Trump, but I mean, beginning the speech by quoting Eugene Debs, he is. That was a very ideological speech and maybe that's just a gambit to get kids.
- [08:20]
Sam Stein
Father of American socialism right there. Yeah. Before we get to what comes next, I actually want to talk about the youth of New York City because. And frankly, let's just be straight about it. Yeah. The Utes, we should be an ode to my cousin Vinnie here.
- [08:32]
John Avalon
That's right.
- [08:33]
Sam Stein
Democrats do not. Those voters don't turn out. They, they just don't. I mean, historically, there's occasions where they will. I mean, Obama in 08 obviously got them out. And I think, frankly, to be like, very reductionist about it, like, this was what Mandani, this was his brilliance. Right. It was like he was able to connect with these people in a way that I don't really recall another candidate being able to do other than Obama. Wait. And his videos were incredible. Like, I really do think an incredible campaign asset was just the way he was able to use social media with those videos. But, you know, he still managed to get a lot of these people to get up, go out and engage in a political process that they frankly find, you know, pointless, helpless, that they don't really want to engage in. How did he do it, in your estimation?
- [09:22]
John Avalon
So I think a relentless focus on affordability and authenticity and rewriting the game. With regard to social media. There is a lot to learn from Mamdani's campaign that I think can apply broadly to Democrats. But it's not the lesson that the DSA might like you to take. I think the focus on affordability that is a crushing factor driving our politics. A lot of frustration that led some folks to Donald Trump in the past, the way that inflation sort of added insult to injury on the middle class squeeze that's been going on for decades. But not only that Particularly young folks finding themselves just under relenting pressure. 1% vacancy rate, housing costs, you know, just the affordability of living in New York, which crushes people that want to move here to pursue their. Their dreams. He tapped into that, and his authenticity with video was absolutely key. So I think any candidate can learn about the importance of authenticity. Relentless focus on affordability, which Mikey Sheryl and Abigail Spanberger also did, and focusing on digital rather than more expensive, traditional means of advertising. It's incumbent upon the center left, it seems to me, to start coming up with compelling solutions to the affordability crisis that actually works with the market, not against it. And that's a challenge. The center left gets screwed when they're just seen as defenders of the status quo.
- [10:37]
Sam Stein
100%. I think it's. And I think it's something about the idea of, like, there can be hope for you in this political process. Like, it doesn't have to be. Yeah, it's like it doesn't have to be so cynical. It doesn't have to be so helpless. There is hope. And I think, you know, Obama was in a very different. And I'm not comparing these two, but Obama's hope was like, oh, we can get to a new type of politics where it's not so argumentative. Obviously didn't work out, but that was the hope that people had. And with mom Dani, it's like, oh, actually, we can have a political system that really, actually does focus on you and says the rich, to put it blankly. And so I think hope was kind of the ingredient that for some reason he was able to use and tap into in ways that no one else can and maybe that advantage just someone like him and not Mikey Sheryl. Although then again, Michael Sherrill won by a bigger margin than he did.
- [11:30]
John Avalon
That's the key point I want to make here. If you look at the New York map, and again, they haven't done 100% vote counting, and the Board of Elections won't get around to it because, you know, it's all over. You know, from a winning standpoint, they won't get around to it for a while. But take a look at that 50% number.
- [11:45]
Sam Stein
This was not our favorite board of elections in the country. They're so efficient.
- [11:49]
John Avalon
Yeah, but, but, but for real, take a look at the map. Take a look at the margin. Mikey Shergol and Abigail Spanberger won much more convincing victories as a matter of percentages and as a matter of just looking at the map. New York hasn't had a competitive general election. In a long time, partly because the local New York Republican Party, which used to be sort of every 25 years, they'd come in with a sort of a centrist reformer and as be a corrective to the Democratic machine. Donald Trump has killed that tradition. The Tea Party killed that tradition. So now you're seeing independents are really the only off ramp. But this was a very divided electorate, despite a incredibly impressive campaign rise.
- [12:26]
Sam Stein
Talk about the idea of sort of the moderate Republican reformer as a non existent entity in New York City politics. Because that was during my childhood. That was the sort of, you know, foundation of New York City Republicanism. It's like the Bloomberg types who would come in and say, you know what, you need a technocrat. You need someone who actually can get things going.
- [12:46]
John Avalon
Right.
- [12:47]
Sam Stein
And frankly, right now that's not the case.
- [12:50]
John Avalon
That's not the case. And that's really going to be a problem when you get to the core responsibilities of governing of a very executive office with someone who has never had an executive office or had a private sector job, but also is now going to be running a government that has 300,000 people. And it's primarily, this is a leadership management executive job. This is not the rhetorical stuff where people can be inspired by Bernie Sanders or naoc. This is about actually clean. You know, mayors are judged on three things. Clean the streets, Clean the streets, safe streets, quality of life, grow in the tax base. Right. That's, you know, and ideally those things should take care of the affordability crisis. If there's sufficient growth. It's not going to happen on its own. It takes leadership, it takes policies. But you asked a different question, and I'll take that bait and nerd out with you as someone who's, who's halfway through a book on Teddy Roosevelt right now writing one. So, so you got to remember the.
- [13:48]
Sam Stein
Republican Party, I know my Avalon bait at this point. I know my Avalon bait just couldn't be happier.
- [13:55]
John Avalon
So you got to remember the Republican Party is the moderate progressive reform Party, the third party, when it's founded with Abraham Lincoln. And it is the counterweight to the Tammany hall political machine through most of the 19th century. You get to the early 20th century, the reformers were by and large Republicans, even though they were often outgunned numerically. And so you had, in the Teddy Roosevelt era, you had, occasionally the corrective would be the group I'm chairman of Citizens Union elected a mayor named Seth Lowe, who was the president of Columbia University. You had Teddy Roosevelt, you had Fiorello Laguardia who was a Republican socialist. So there is a precedent in that front. You know, who was able to actually, you know, be one of the iconic mayors of New York, taking on the Tammany hall machine. You had people like Nelson Rockefeller, those Rockefeller Republicans, John Lindsay, liberal Republican. Then you had Rudy Giuliani and Mike Bloomberg, that 20 year period that really turned around the city. But that sort of Republican in New York means reform, isolated from the conservative move of the party, particularly some Barry Goldwater and then obviously Ronald Reagan, onto Trumpism, which is not conservative, I would argue, but it has really killed that tradition. And you saw it starting to take place during the Tea Party years where folks like Rick Glasio would lose primaries to much more far right folks who had not a prayer in the general election. And so as a result, I mean, Curtis Leva, when all the votes are told, might have been the spoiler here. I just, you got to see when all the votes come in, but we'll see. The guy's not a Trumper, but showed up with a, with a cat book.
- [15:29]
Sam Stein
16 cats. 16 cats. That guy has.
- [15:32]
John Avalon
Yeah, yeah, he's got 16 cats. So you don't have that, you know, every 20, 25 years of competitive general election, independents and Republicans anymore. And it means that to have a competitive general election until we have open primaries and ranked choice voting, which we should have both of those, you know, you're going to have more independent candidates just to have a corrective or to have a competitive general election because it's not right, you know, that. I mean, Mamdani won the Democratic primary convincingly but with less than 10% of all registered voters. And we shouldn't get used to the idea, even in places like New York, that elections should be decided in cloth partisan primaries.
- [16:07]
Sam Stein
Yeah, well, I think that's why the, I think that's why Cuomo running as an independent and actually is going to help Mom Donnie with some credibility to have that many people turn out to still win over those voters and to beat Cuomo when the vote had really consolidated around him. The, I mean, Adam's dropping out and then Sliwa's vote's going to be, you know, very low relative to the other. I mean, it does show. He, he, he will have won a substantial victory. Now, last question for you, say not going to happen. No offense, but let's say tomorrow. Mom Donnie says, hey, John Avalon, look, you've worked in City hall, you know the stuff, you know, the city like come in here and give me like your, your three or five Pieces of advice of what I should do my first month in office. What would you tell him?
- [16:48]
John Avalon
Well, first of all, I think everybody should hope that the new mayor succeeds. Right. That they're a good mayor. I don't believe in the Rush Limbaugh. I hope he fails school. Right. So. And I think he's going to be the recipient of unbelievably positive coverage and people are going to be very excited. But to your point, it's the governing where the rubber meets the road first. I encourage him to keep Jessica Tisch on his police commissioner. That's a decision she's got to make. But crime is moving in the right direction. But let's be real. They've got philosophical disagreements about how to keep crime low. She's re emphasized quality of life policing, which has the added advantage of working. But a lot of his base deeply is opposed to it and personnel is policy. Right. And so the danger is you get a lot of really ideological people inside City hall who, who try to make it sort of a laboratory of ideas as opposed to simply making sure government works. And that's how this could be a discrediting moment for the DSA unless he can govern effectively. Make sure your first deputy mayor is someone who is also not ideological but knows how to run things. Someone like Daniel Rodnik is a name who's been mentioned. This is deep cut local stuff, but really make sure you're staffing your administration with folks who can do the practical blocking and tackling of governing, which means hiring well and recognizing your own strengths and weaknesses. He is a compelling communicator. He has the ability, I think, to be compassionate, which is part of a job, mayor's job in times of disaster. But he's got to make sure that the governance happens. And those key metrics, quality of life, clean streets, safe streets, growing tax base, those things have got to move in the right direction for him. Otherwise the budgets will catch up with him and you will have a brief honeymoon like Brandon Johnson has seen in Chicago.
- [18:30]
Sam Stein
Yeah, I'll just, I'll just end on this note just because I know from my own reporting. It's been reported that former President Barack Obama reached out to Mamdani over the summer or something like that, and then apparently did it again this fall. I know just from my own reporting that this is the point that was made between the two, which is it's you do if you're going to make it a credible movement, you have to get the actual governance right and you have to get good people in there. To make sure that the city runs well. Otherwise you're going to lose credibility. And I think Mayor Johnson in Chicago is an example of that, really, where all that euphoria from the election really dissipated fairly quickly because the city just didn't feel like it was being run well. So I know people are talking to Mamdani about it and, you know, there's some reports that he might keep Tish on. We'll see what happens, but we'll see. I mean, this is. He talked about governing in campaigning, poetry, governing and pros. He didn't mention that was Mario Cuomo who said it. But that is true. He did not mention.
- [19:29]
John Avalon
And, and look, you know, that's going to be a test of whether the, the DSA can actually go from, you know, get, get results, not just rhetoric that inspires a lot of folks. He deserves a lot of credit for the campaign he raised. Affordability and authenticity are things that, you know, all Democrats can do and leaning into digital. But the big message last night from a national perspective is looking at the winds in New Jersey and Virginia to centrist women with military national security backgrounds cleaning up and Donald Trump's actions that are extreme and unpopular coming home to roost in elections. That should, should give people a sense of hope.
- [20:06]
Sam Stein
You know, don't, don't shut down the Gateway Tunnel and expect to win New Jersey, man, that's just not gonna work. There you go, John. Thank you so much, buddy. Appreciate everyone who's watching us appreciate you watching this as well. Subscribe to the feed. We get great talks like this. Talk to you soon.