Bulwark Takes: "Democrats Just Had Their Best Night in YEARS"

Date: November 5, 2025
Host: The Bulwark Team (Sam Stein & John Avalon)

Overview

This post-election episode of Bulwark Takes analyzes the Democratic Party’s sweeping successes during the 2025 elections—with particular attention paid to both national trends and the historic New York City mayoral election. Sam Stein and John Avalon break down data, voter dynamics, and what the night's results reveal about the direction of both parties, all while touching on implications for governance, party messaging, and the future of urban politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. National Democratic Gains in Swing Districts

• Democrats outperformed across key states, notably New Jersey and Virginia:
  • “If you look down ballot, Democrats made gains in every swing district... virtually literally every district in New Jersey voted more Democratic than it did last year.” — John Avalon [01:10]
  • Center-left candidates Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger won decisively on affordability messages instead of culture war issues.
  • Even in New Jersey—where Trump made a 10-point gain in 2024—Democrats reversed the trend due to non-culture war messaging and Trump’s declining appeal with key voting blocs.

2. New York City’s Historic Mayoral Election

• Zora Mamdani, a 34-year-old Muslim democratic socialist, won NYC’s mayoralty amid record-turnout and generational divides:
  • “America's largest city elected a 34 year old Muslim socialist...You got to give Mamdani credit for building a campaign from zero to winning the Democratic nomination.” — John Avalon [03:24]
  • Mamdani’s base: Young voters, especially women under 35 (estimated 84% in that demographic).
  • Cuomo’s base: Voters over 45.
  • Notably competitive and high-turnout—over 1 million votes for Mamdani, compared to prior mayors’ counts.
  • Demographic split: Age and ideology defined the race more than race or finance/industry.
  • Discussion of Cuomo’s campaign tactics (including linking Mamdani to 9/11) as a factor motivating turnout and unity for Mamdani.

3. National Republican Strategy and Backlash

• Republicans’ attempts to nationalize the NYC race and demonize Mamdani failed to sway neighboring New Jersey voters:
  • “Karl Rove called Mamdani the gift that's going to keep giving. Right. They are going to try to demonize the new mayor of New York and make him assemble for the national party. But to your point, voters in New Jersey…didn't fall for that.” — John Avalon [06:43]
  • Trump’s unpopularity: Independents’ strong disapproval (48%) and mishandling of regional issues (e.g., Gateway Tunnel) hurt GOP in the tri-state area.

4. Youth Mobilization & Campaign Tactics

• Mamdani succeeded in youth outreach—drawing parallels to the Obama ‘08 coalition:
  • “This was what Mamdani… brilliance. Right. He was able to connect with [young voters] in a way that I don't really recall another candidate being able to do other than Obama…His videos were incredible.” — Sam Stein [08:32]
  • Heavy, authentic use of digital/social media, focus on affordability, genuine grassroots message.
  • “Relentless focus on affordability and authenticity and rewriting the game with regard to social media. There is a lot to learn from Mamdani's campaign that I think can apply broadly to Democrats.” — John Avalon [09:21]
  • The lesson: “authenticity, affordability, and digital” are the winning formula—not necessarily ideology alone.

5. Affordability as the Defining Issue

• Young voters, in particular, responded to candid discussions about housing and economic opportunity:
  • “Affordability... is a crushing factor driving our politics. A lot of frustration that led some folks to Donald Trump in the past...But not only that. Particularly young folks finding themselves just under relenting pressure...He tapped into that, and his authenticity with video was absolutely key.” — John Avalon [09:21]

6. Hope & Cynicism in Politics

• Comparison between Obama’s “hope” message and Mamdani’s approach:
  • “There can be hope for you in this political process. Like, it doesn't have to be…so cynical. It doesn't have to be so helpless. There is hope.” — Sam Stein [10:37]
  • The show challenges the idea that only centrists can unite broad coalitions, noting that both centrist and progressive Democrats triumphed with margin and message.

7. Death of the Moderate Republican in NYC

• Explores historical context of Republican reformers in NYC and why that tradition collapsed:
  • “You got to remember the Republican Party is the moderate progressive reform Party...That sort of Republican in New York means reform...But that has really killed that tradition.” — John Avalon [13:55]
  • Commentary on the extinction of the centrist/technocratic “Bloomberg Republican,” due to national rightward shifts and Trumpism.

8. Governing Challenges Ahead for Mamdani

• Governing is different from campaigning; leadership and practical management are critical:
  • “The job of mayor... is basically to be a non ideological problem solver. And his speech last night was very, very ideological out of the gate.” — John Avalon [04:33]
  • “Mayors are judged on three things. Clean the streets, safe streets, grow in the tax base...Otherwise the budgets will catch up with him and you will have a brief honeymoon like Brandon Johnson has seen in Chicago.” — John Avalon [12:50][18:08]
  • Importance of personnel (“personnel is policy”), especially in police department and deputy mayor positions.

9. Lessons for Democrats Nationally

• Cohesive message for Democrats: Affordability, authenticity, and hope can win both the center and the left.
  • “Affordability and authenticity are things that, you know, all Democrats can do and leaning into digital. But the big message last night from a national perspective is looking at the wins in New Jersey and Virginia—two centrist women with military national security backgrounds cleaning up and Donald Trump's actions…coming home to roost in elections. That should, should give people a sense of hope.” — John Avalon [19:28]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Political Divides:
  “There's an age split here in addition to all the other demographic deals.…” — John Avalon [03:24]
• On Mamdani’s Outreach:
  “He was able to use social media with those videos...He still managed to get a lot of these people to get up, go out and engage in a political process that they frankly find...pointless, helpless.” — Sam Stein [08:32]
• On Challenges Ahead:
  “You do—if you're going to make it a credible movement, you have to get the actual governance right and you have to get good people in there to make sure that the city runs well. Otherwise you're going to lose credibility. And I think Mayor Johnson in Chicago is an example of that.” — Sam Stein [18:29]
• On Republican Strategy Failing:
  “Republicans’ attempts to demonize the new mayor of New York and make him a symbol for the national party…voters in New Jersey didn’t fall for that.” — John Avalon [06:43]
• On Democratic Fundamentals:
  “Affordability and authenticity are things that, you know, all Democrats can do, and leaning into digital.” — John Avalon [19:28]

Important Timestamps

• Analysis of National Swing Districts: [01:10]
• NYC Mayoral Election Results Deep Dive: [03:24–05:16]
• Republican Strategy/Backlash – Tri-state impact: [06:43–07:17]
• Youth Voter Mobilization: [08:20–10:37]
• Affordability and Messaging Lessons: [09:21–11:30]
• Collapse of Moderate Republican Tradition in NYC: [12:26–15:31]
• Advice for Mamdani as Mayor: [16:48–18:29]
• Closing Lessons for Democrats: [19:28–20:06]

Tone & Style

The hosts are analytical yet conversational, mixing granular political analysis with anecdotes and quips (e.g., “the Utes”—from My Cousin Vinny), and never shying from hard truths about party failures or future challenges. Their tone blends urgency (about the hinge moment for Democrats) with cautious optimism and realism about the day-after realities of governance.

Conclusion

This episode paints a comprehensive picture of why Democrats had their best election night in years: combining centrist victories, progressive insurgencies, effective youth mobilization, and the GOP’s ongoing struggles with Trump’s toxicity. Sam Stein and John Avalon underscore that the path to continued Democratic success lies in authentically addressing economic anxiety, investing in digital grassroots, and—crucially—delivering functional governance with substance and follow-through.