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- [00:00]
A
Hey everybody. Tim Miller from the Bulwark here. I was just on deadline White House with my friend Nicole and fellow New Orleanian Mitch Landrieu and as well as Basil Smichel. And we were talking about the Democratic special election wins this week or at least in areas where they lost, where they gained a lot of ground. This is something, it's hard to cover all the special elections given the fact that Donald Trump is threatening civilizational annihilation and the Middle east and you know, having deals, no deals, and you know, there's a lot in the news, but it's important to just get a sense of where things are at. And you had in Marjorie Taylor Greene's district, the Republicans end up having to spend money to protect their candidate. And the Democratic candidate had a 20 plus point improvement over what the Democrat did against Marjorie Taylor Greene in 2024. Uh, and so that's good. Uh, you have a new Democratic mayor and crucial Waukesha, Wisconsin. Uh, you had a Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin. Huge win by the Democratic aligned candidate. So lots of positive news in the special elections. And as you hear, as I'm talking to Nicole, there's one particular shift number that I'm looking to this year for people to keep in the back of their head. That's this 14 point shift. And you can hear more about that with Nicole. I wanted to talk about one other thing while we're here among friends. I was just at a meeting of state Democratic parties and had the opportunity to meet a lot of folks who are like, doing the work out there in the states, working for the state parties, working for affiliated organizations. And there's always a lot of focus on the big swing states and the big races and the big candidates. But these are a lot of the folks who are like behind the scenes doing work in real, you know, in places where the Democrats might have unexpected victories this year, where it's critical that the Democrats are competing. You know, second, one guy who's at the Alaska party and talking about how, hey, state House and Senate in Alaska this time could be winnable. There's a very competitive House race that's in addition to Mary Peltola, somebody I talk about a lot, who's running for Senate. I think his name is maybe the best Democratic Senate recruit this cycle. So, you know, that's a place where Democrats have to compete and they need people to do the work there. They need bodies, they need volunteers. And you know, among the questions people were talking about asking me was how to get people to motivated. And I'M over here going, shit. I'm hearing from people all the time. They're listening to this show, asking what I can do. And so there is a little bit of a disconnect there, you know, where there are, you know, these organizations that, that are looking for excited volunteers to help. And maybe people don't know exactly how to connect. So I would people, you know, look at your local, state and county parties. And even if you're in a red state, you know, I met folks from Arkansas, Kentucky, state party chairs, a lot of these places. I mentioned in the Nicole segment that I think Florida is a sleeper state right now. I met Nikki Freed today for the first time, who was a past candidate that's now running the party there. So this is the moment. It's all ties to what I've been trying to say in the discourse about whether it's about Hassan or whether it's about the war, how to talk about the war. My conversation with Congressman gottheimer, like in this whole thing, like, this is the, the moment for the Democrats to go out and be active and communicate with people in communities who are unhappy with what Trump is doing. This is the time to go to these places where Democrats usually don't do well and say, hey, Trump's fucking over on tariffs. He's screwing you over on your energy prices because of his dumb war. He doesn't care about you. He cares about himself. He cares about his ballroom. You know, maybe in the past you thought the Democrats, you know, we're too woke or too crazy or whatever, whatever it is, let's get a clean slate now. Let's get a clean slate. Let's, let's try to demonstrate to these voters that there are people on the pro democracy side that hear their concerns and are ready to actually govern in a way that is responsive to the American people. So it was cool to be there with everybody. The vibes are getting a little better. You know, I've been in some of these pro democracy or Democratic Party or whatever activist groups over the past year and a half, and obviously there's a lot of anxiety. There's still some anxiety today, but the vibes are getting a little better. And I do like to see that. So anyway, up next, stick around for Mitch, Basil, Nicole and yours truly and subscribe to the feed. Subscribe to you. We're trying to get to 2 million. Try to get to 2 million YouTube subscribers. Help us out. There's some MAGA losers that have more subscribers. We don't want that. You don't Want that?
- [04:45]
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Subscribe to the Feed Democrats are once again on the cutting edge of what appears to be a political sea change in the United States of America. Keep this in mind next time you hear Donald Trump publicly plotting to rig the midterm elections. But first, those results in solidly purple Wisconsin, which went for Donald Trump a year and a half ago. The contest for that state supreme Court resulted in what one former Republican strategist described to Politico as a, quote, wow moment. Although officially a nonpartisan race, the candidate backed by Democrats defeated her counterpart, the one backed by the Republicans, by a whopping 20 points, with winning margins in counties Trump didn't even worry about in 2024. Then, 1,000 miles south in Georgia, a different sort of result, but energizing for Republicans all the same. It was a victory for the Republican candid in a special election to replace Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene. But if you look closer, you'll see that the most propulsive leftward swing in any special election since the start of last year to the tune of 25 points, also happened there last night. New York Times writes it like this quote, the shift is a political harbinger for Republicans. In this year's midterm elections, nearly two dozen House Republicans won their 2024 races by 10 points or less. The Senate map includes seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas that could be in play if the Democratic advantage proves to be durable through November. Georgia Democrats also saw the outcome as a boost for Senator Jon Ossoff, who is seeking reelection this fall. But wait, there's more. Just yesterday, the Cook Political Report, one of, if not the most respected weather vanes for these sorts of analyses, shifted five House races in the direction of Democrats compared to just one that moved the other way. The context of that decision isn't exactly a closely held secret. Poll after poll after poll after poll has shown that people are upset about all sorts of things, chief among them gas prices, the cost of living, wars they did not ask for, in fact, wars they specifically voted against when they chose Trump. So again, for all the time and money and effort that goes into politics, as complicated as the consultants want to make it seem, in the end, it comes down to what people feel and what they want. And right now, their gut appears to be telling them it is time for something other than Trump. Tim Miller, how do you see the moment?
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Look, I see it as a huge opportunity for the Democrats. And let's just nerd out a little bit for a second on last night, right, because I think that the numbers are pretty important Here. And the key number that I've been looking at as you talk to the midterms is 14 points, a 14 point swing. And here's why. There are four states that Trump won by 13 points, give or take. It's Texas, it's Alaska, it's Iowa, it's a state people don't talk about that much anymore. Florida, all four of those is a 13 point win for Donald Trump. All four of those have Senate seats up this year. Do all four of them have governor seats? At least three of them have governor seats up this year. And so huge races. And if the Democrats are going to take back the Senate and not just tie it, like, they need to win at least one of those if they want to really have a Senate majority to work with, you know, they could go and sweep them. And so, you know, we've got, we've talked a lot about the Texas Senate race and the Iowa Senate race. Democrats have good candidates there. Rob Sands can run for governor. There's a Senate primary going on in Florida. You know, we got our guys, David Jolly and Alex Vindman, who you've both had on this show, running in the governor and Senate races, respectfully. So they're legit candidates that could win in those states. And so if you look at these swings right now, you're seeing, I mean, in that Georgia race last night, much more than that. But in a lot of these places right around there, 13, 14, 15 point swings. Now, a midterm election is different than a special election. In a special election, people kind of know that the election's happening that day. So there's like this extra burden to getting there. Right. So it advantages the side that's more enthusiastic because they're paying attention to the news. But so the Democrats, I think, have more work to do from now, from April to November. Luckily, Donald Trump's doing a lot of the work for them. By the way that he's alienating people and, you know, by the wreckage he's caused the economy and by the way that he's out of touch with people's interests. But, you know, I think that that like had we talked three months ago, you know, I think people have left you out of the room by even bringing up Florida and Iowa. And now I think that Alaska, Iowa, Florida, Texas are all real states that are in play for the Democrats in very important states. And besides Alaska, they've all been states, I guess, Texas, at least in the case of Iowa and Florida, there were states that Democrats won not that long ago.
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Yeah, I mean, Tim, I also feel like everyone, whether you're a Democrat or a Republican or former Republican, everyone has sort of swallowed the asymmetry, right? And like the Republicans picked a felon and they're doing all this stuff that they lied about and we just put them as other. And the Democrats get sort of fly specked because they are holding all the hopes of the country remaining a democracy. So in the spirit of, you know, we point out when they do things wrong, I want to point out what I think they're doing right, which is that they are now the tent with Mondami and Talarico in it, with AOC and David Jolly in it. They now represent the party that represents like 70% of the mainstream views of the country from sort of here to here. And there are still issues. And I know you're sort of picking at those scabs and doing the Lord's work there, but in terms of a brand, I think the Democratic Party has done a lot to be in a very healthy position ahead of November on that front.
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Yeah, look, I agree with that. And I also think if we're going to give the Democratic Party some flowers here, they've won both shutdowns in Capitol Hill. There's a lot of complaints about the Democratic Party leaders in Washington. But in both cases, in the first one, I think raised the salience of the health care issue and how Donald Trump's not following through on his America first promises when he talks about getting health care to people that need it, particularly in rural communities. And then in this one on dhs, you see Donald Trump having to fold, kind of like he's having to fold in the Iran negotiations. So I think you have seen that from Democrats a lot of times, you know, when you're saying, when you're talking about the ways that the Democrats aren't, you know, what you would have called their picking at the scab. A lot of my message for that for the Democrats is kind of the opposite right now, which is like, yeah, this is the party of everybody from AOC to David Jolly to just pick two examples out of the air. But they need to also take as much advantage of possible as possible of all the opportunities that Donald Trump is giving them right now. And like Donald Trump is alienating demographic after demographic of people that voted for him. And whether they thought he was the anti war candidate or thought he was the lowering prices candidate, he screwed it up. And so a lot of times maybe I would use, instead of picking the scab, I would say cajoling the Democrats to like get out there and scoop up all those voters as much as possible right now in this moment.
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It's a compliment because I think there's an introspection that becomes message when it should be tactic. And so I respect what you're doing.
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The reason why I say we had a win tonight is because the Republican Party had to spend almost $2 million in a smear campaign to get this win. They should never have to spend money on a ruby red district
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that was a Democrat who did not prevail last night. But again, a 24 point swing. Tim, I know there's a lot of sort of political press around the MAGA money machine, but you have to be able to deploy the money competently and strategically. And I wonder what you make of the money situation right now.
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Yeah. Two thoughts on this. One, the Republicans are going to have more money this midterm. I think for the first time in a decade or two. Maybe Marilyn might be better on that, on when the last time this was. But the Democrats have actually been better at fundraising since Obama. And so that is something that Democrats are going to have to contend with. Donald Trump, if you go back to last year, what was he doing this time last year? Shaking people down. Like shaving, shaking down CEOs, shaking down the richest people in the world. Yeah, they were funding his ballroom. Yeah, he's still doing that. I like that was what he was doing really effectively when he first came in. You just have to recall, like right now he's kind of flailing. When he first came in, he was super effective at getting rich people to do favors for them in exchange for getting a bag for his super pac. So they're gonna have a ton of money. Here's the problem though, like advertising, you need to be able to have something to sell, you know, if the dogs won't eat the dog food is the old phrase in advertising. It doesn't do you any good. And Right. If people are experiencing real pain economically and if people are looking at him and thinking this guy doesn't have his eye on the ball at all, and I don't feel like my concerns or grievances or needs are being met, they can run all the ads they want and it's not gonna work. So what they can do is go into these red districts, some of those states I was talking about in the last segment, and save ground. Right. Go into Iowa and smear the Democratic candidate and try to get their number down with Republican voters and they'll probably be able to use their money to do that relatively effectively. And that's what Democrats have to combat. So just one other thing on this I just do want to say, a lot of times when we talk optimistic about Democrats, I know all you have heard this from people, it's like, well, they're gonna cheat anyway. You know, you do hear this, like, they're gonna cheat anyway. They're gonna try to rig it anyway. So who cares about the midterms? Democracy when Trump won is lost. And I just wanna point out that, like, don't you think that they wanted to cheat in Wisconsin last night? Like, don't you think that they wanted to cheat in these, all these special House elections that they've had recently? You know, it's easier said than done. And the Republicans are trying. They tried to do it with the redistricting and it failed. You know, they're gonna try to do it with the mail in ballots and the challenging. We need to be vigilant. You know, you have Mark Elias on here every week talking about this. There are good people out there making sure that we're being vigilant in fighting this. But I do think it's also important to just like, talk about the reality here, which is that they might try to use their money and they might try to cheat, but, you know, sometimes reality is more powerful than their misinformation campaign and their efforts to jerry rig what's going to happen in the midterms.
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I mean, Tim, it's a really important point because it is one of the tactics they deploy with some success from the Autocrats toolbook to make the pro democracy side think that it's fruitless, it's cheap, that actually costs nothing. Right. So every public statement Trump makes, every time he burps out something about the Save act or cutting off midterm voting or sending troops, that's free. I mean, Trump doesn't ever have a message, so he's not distracting from anything else. And it creates anxiety in the pro democracy coalition. And if one person decides to, you know, run a different errand instead of waiting an extra hour to vote, that tactic succeeds. I mean, I think combating that political tactic is as important as any other political mission in the next six months.
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Totally. They want us to be tired. They want us to feel disillusioned. That's what, that's what they want. They want to wear you down. It's all part of the, you know, Steve Bannon policy of the fire hose, of, you know, what, you know, like, that's what they want to do. And it hasn't worked so far. And I think that it's important to just accept that truth while going forth and doing tactically the things that need to be done, or volunteering or do whatever can be done to continue to help pro democracy candidates in elections this year and beyond.