Podcast Summary: Democrats Think They Can Flip the Senate in 2026 (w/ Sen. Adam Schiff)

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Host: Lauren Egan (The Bulwark)
Guest: Senator Adam Schiff (Vice Chair, DSCC)
Date: January 17, 2026
Duration: Main conversation begins at [01:29]

Overview

In this episode, Lauren Egan from The Bulwark sits down with Senator Adam Schiff, the vice chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), to discuss the Democrats’ strategy to regain control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections. Schiff provides an insider’s perspective on state-by-state opportunities, candidate recruitment, and the chief issues driving the upcoming campaigns. The discussion also touches on public concerns about affordability, federal government interventions, and party strategy debates sparked by recent opinion pieces.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Democrats’ Roadmap to Flipping the Senate

Timestamps: [01:50] – [04:58]

• Context Shift: Senator Schiff notes how the outlook for Democrats has shifted over the past year. What was once considered a "really tough path" is now "a very viable path for the Senate to flip."

  "A year ago, I think most people would have said...really hard to see it being possible to flip the Senate. That has completely changed." (Schiff, [02:21])

• Top Pickup Opportunities:
  Schiff highlights four principal battleground states where Democrats see the most potential:

  • North Carolina: Roy Cooper (popular governor) running for open seat ([02:44])
  • Ohio: Sherrod Brown aiming to reclaim a Senate seat ([03:02])
  • Maine: Janet Mills and Graham Platner challenging Susan Collins ([03:12])
  • Alaska: Mary Peltola, described as "the most popular politician in that state" ([03:29])
  • Georgia: Strong incumbent Jon Ossoff; GOP failed to recruit top candidate, Governor Brian Kemp.

• Battleground Climate:
  Schiff credits the shift to strong recruiting and strong incumbents. He emphasizes the impact of recent political trends, including "pendulum-swings" observed in special elections.

2. Outlook on Texas and Iowa

Timestamps: [04:58] – [06:58]

• Although not listed as top-tier targets, Schiff expresses optimism about Texas and Iowa:

  "Texas could very well be in play now…A lot of us, I'll be candid, have a lot of ptsd when it comes to Texas. We've invested a lot of hope and prayer in Texas." ([05:46])

• Schiff highlights messy Republican primaries in Texas and Iowa as factors giving Democrats hope, alongside strong Democratic primaries and gubernatorial races.

  • Texas: Democratic and Republican primaries seen as volatile; possibility for opportunity.
  • Iowa: Strong gubernatorial ticket could boost Senate chances.

3. Recruitment Strategy and Motivations

Timestamps: [06:58] – [08:56]

• Recruitment Success: Schiff credits the “sense of duty” that motivated star recruits, especially at a time of perceived crisis for American institutions:

  "It was an acknowledgment of the crisis the country is going through...Candidates feel a real sense of mission." ([07:34])

• Schiff points out that several candidates were contemplating gubernatorial runs but chose the Senate as a more impactful platform at this moment.

4. DSCC Involvement in Primaries

Timestamps: [08:56] – [10:17]

• Hands-Off Approach: The DSCC has avoided endorsements so far, letting local voters decide:

  "The default is to let the voters of different states decide races for themselves." ([09:19])

• When to Intervene: Schiff says DSCC involvement only makes sense when clear data shows electability differences:

  “...When it’s clear that, hey, there’s one candidate who can win and others who simply can’t, and we have to get involved.” ([09:48])

5. The Florida Senate Race

Timestamps: [10:17] – [11:50]

• Democratic Commitment: Despite speculation that Democrats have abandoned Florida, Schiff insists otherwise:

  "We have not at all given up on Florida and in fact, I have great hopes for Florida." ([10:41])

• Key Issues in Florida: Extreme insurance costs from climate disasters, health care affordability, and a sense of alarm around cost of living are central messages.

  "People can’t afford to insure their homes…That state I think will be very much in play." ([11:31])

• Repeats the commitment:

  "We’re going to win Florida one day and I want that day to be this year." ([11:46])

6. Core Issues for the Midterms

Timestamps: [11:50] – [13:49]

• Main Focus:
  • Health care costs
  • Housing costs
  • Electricity costs
  • (Possibly also child care)

  "It will be the cost of living. It will be, again, the economy, stupid." ([12:19])

• Democrats’ Message: The administration’s policies are harming ordinary Americans; Trump’s distraction tactics don’t address kitchen-table issues.

  "He is really focused on his own personal economy and that of his billionaire buddies. He’s not focused on the American people." ([12:51])

• Schiff links Republican corruption and failure to everyday economic pain.

7. Law and Order vs. Affordability Messaging

Timestamps: [13:49] – [15:30]

• Connecting the Dots: Schiff argues that Trump’s “militarization” and threat to invoke the Insurrection Act are deliberate distractions:

  “All of that prompting of chaos is part of his effort to distract...He doesn’t want people focused on the economy.” ([14:16])

• Call to Action:
  • Democrats must expose these tactics while keeping attention on economic failures and federal overreach.

8. Should Democrats Run Against Their Leadership?

Timestamps: [15:30] – [16:48]

• David Plouffe’s Advice: Plouffe recently advocated for Democrats to “call for new leadership” (i.e., criticize Chuck Schumer).
• Schiff’s Response: He firmly disagrees, arguing the focus should always be on Trump and Republican policies:

  “We will be successful in this election if it is a referendum on Donald Trump and his policies…anything that divides us from the relentless focus we need is counterproductive.” ([16:03])

• Strategic Unity: Schiff advocates keeping Democratic messaging united and aimed at the incumbent party.

Notable Quotes (Chronological, with Attribution)

• "That has completely changed. There is now a very viable path for the Senate to flip."
  — Sen. Adam Schiff, [02:27]

• "Roy Cooper...is as strong a candidate as we could possibly imagine. That very much puts North Carolina in play."
  — Sen. Adam Schiff, [02:44]

• "A lot of us, I'll be candid, have a lot of ptsd when it comes to Texas. We've invested a lot of hope and prayer in Texas."
  — Sen. Adam Schiff, [05:46]

• "It was an acknowledgment of the crisis the country is going through...Candidates feel a real sense of mission."
  — Sen. Adam Schiff, [07:34]

• "The default is to let the voters of different states decide races for themselves."
  — Sen. Adam Schiff, [09:19]

• "We have not at all given up on Florida and in fact, I have great hopes for Florida."
  — Sen. Adam Schiff, [10:41]

• "It will be the cost of living. It will be, again, the economy, stupid."
  — Sen. Adam Schiff, [12:19]

• "We will be successful in this election if it is a referendum on Donald Trump and his policies."
  — Sen. Adam Schiff, [16:07]

Memorable Moments

• Schiff’s candid admission of “ptsd” from previous failed efforts in Texas ([05:46])
• His passionate reiteration that Democrats have “not at all given up on Florida,” despite conventional wisdom ([10:41])
• Firm stance against intra-party division, responding to Plouffe’s op-ed by calling for unity and a focus on Trump ([16:03])

Key Segment Timestamps

• [01:29] Main interview begins — Introduction, framing the Senate battle
• [02:21] State-by-state Democratic plans laid out
• [04:58] Texas & Iowa discussed as “possibilities”
• [06:58] Candidate recruitment insights
• [08:56] DSCC’s stance on primary involvement
• [10:17] The Florida question
• [11:50] Key 2026 midterm issues forecasted
• [13:49] Dealing with Trump’s militarization and distractions
• [15:30] Strategic advice on running against Democratic leadership
• [16:48] Interview conclusion

Takeaways

Listeners get an unfiltered look at the Democrats’ tactical thinking headed into the 2026 midterms. Schiff repeatedly underscores strong candidate recruitment, mobilization around cost-of-living issues, and the need for unified, Trump-focused messaging. While skeptical about getting involved in contentious primaries or running against party leaders, Schiff’s optimism for longshot states and his warnings about anti-democratic trends frame a party prepared for a high-stakes Senate showdown.