Elon is Destroying his Tesla Empire!

Summary

Bulwark Takes: Elon is Destroying his Tesla Empire!

Released on March 18, 2025, "Bulwark Takes" delves into the rapid decline of Tesla's market dominance, attributing much of the fallout to Elon Musk's controversial leadership and strategic missteps. Hosts Tim Miller and guest JVL provide a comprehensive analysis of Tesla's current predicament, backed by recent financial reports, market trends, and competitive pressures.

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1. JP Morgan's Alarming Report on Tesla's Decline

The episode kicks off with Tim Miller highlighting a significant analyst report from JP Morgan that paints a dire picture for Tesla. According to Tim, JP Morgan stated:

"We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly." ([01:43])

This report forecasts an unprecedented drop in Tesla's sales, projecting first-quarter deliveries to plummet by nearly 20%, from an estimated 444,000 new vehicles to 355,000. Tim emphasizes the speed and severity of this decline:

"Just like think about how quick that that dip is." ([04:30])

2. Elon Musk's Polarizing Influence on the Tesla Brand

JVL delves into the reasons behind Tesla's spiraling fortunes, pinpointing Elon Musk's contentious public persona and political engagements as major factors. He notes:

"Elon Musk is basically gone on a tear where he is told at least half of America that he hates them." ([02:37])

This antagonistic stance has alienated a significant portion of Tesla's customer base, particularly in Europe. JVL cites a staggering poll from Germany where:

"94% of Germans said that they are not interested in buying a Tesla." ([03:40])

His comments underscore the erosion of Tesla’s brand loyalty, especially in its largest markets like California, where sales have reportedly dropped by 40% over the past three months.

3. The Plummet of Tesla's Stock and Secondary Market Value

The conversation shifts to Tesla's financial struggles, with both hosts expressing concern over the drastic fall in stock prices. JVL remarks:

"Tesla's down almost half. Half. I'm thinking about the old Eddie Murphy routine..." ([05:23])

The stock has plummeted from a high of $488 to approximately $228, signaling a loss of investor confidence. Additionally, the secondary market for Tesla vehicles is suffering:

"Depreciation reveals all. ... The prices on the secondary market ... are in the toilet." ([03:38])

This depreciation not only affects Tesla’s reputation but also leaves current owners grappling with significant losses should they attempt to sell their vehicles.

4. Rising Competition in the Electric Vehicle (EV) Market

Tim introduces the escalating competition within the EV sector, particularly from Chinese manufacturers like BYD, which claims to have developed technology allowing EVs to charge in about five minutes—a stark contrast to Tesla’s longer charging times. He states:

"China's BYD ... is trying to jump onto this right now." ([12:08])

JVL adds that:

"EV startups can go from zero to one pretty fast. ... The moat for Tesla in the EV space is nothing like the moat that Ford, GM, and Toyota enjoyed in the ICE space." ([09:26])

This surge in competition is not just limited to China but also includes established brands like Hyundai, Cadillac, and Polestar, all vying to erode Tesla’s market share with innovative models and aggressive marketing strategies.

5. The Burden on Tesla Owners Amid Declining Value

The hosts empathetically discuss the plight of Tesla owners who are now facing the brunt of the company's decline. Tim shares a personal anecdote:

"My buddy ... bought a Tesla about five years ago. ... he's stuck with this thing. ... it's a burden for poor Tesla owners." ([10:47])

JVL echoes these sentiments, highlighting the frustration among owners who find their vehicles depreciating rapidly and associating Tesla cars with negative cultural stigmas:

"They don't want to be driving a Nazi mobile ... people, you know, throwing up sea guy's at them." ([09:26])

6. Future Prospects and Potential Solutions for Tesla

Despite the grim outlook, the discussion touches on potential avenues for Tesla's survival. JVL suggests that government contracts might offer a lifeline, given Elon Musk's connections. However, Tim counters with:

"At some point isn't he going to be forced to like go to work maybe?" ([07:14])

They ponder whether internal pressures, such as shareholder revolts, could compel Musk to refocus on Tesla's core business. Yet, JVL remains skeptical about Musk's ability to steer the company back to stability:

"I'm not convinced that Elon showing up to Tesla is going to make Tesla's cars better." ([07:33])

7. Conclusion: A Brand in Free Fall

The episode wraps up with a consensus that Tesla’s brand is in free fall, exacerbated by Elon Musk’s divisive leadership and the mounting competitive threats in the EV market. Tim concludes with a sharp critique of Musk:

"Elon. Suck on an egg." ([12:19])

The hosts reaffirm their commitment to monitoring Tesla’s trajectory, emphasizing the broader implications for the automotive industry and consumer trust.

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Key Takeaways:

• Rapid Sales Decline: Tesla is experiencing an unprecedented drop in sales, with projections showing a 20% decrease in quarterly deliveries.
• Brand Damage: Elon Musk's polarizing actions and political affiliations have significantly tarnished Tesla's brand, especially in key markets like Europe and California.
• Financial Struggles: Tesla's stock has halved from its peak, and vehicle depreciation in the secondary market is severely impacting owners.
• Intensifying Competition: The EV market is becoming increasingly crowded with aggressive entrants from China and established automakers innovating rapidly.
• Owner Frustration: Current Tesla owners face financial losses and social stigmas, adding to the company's woes.
• Uncertain Future: Potential solutions like government contracts are overshadowed by internal challenges and fierce competition, leaving Tesla's future in doubt.

Notable Quotes:

• "Tesla's down almost half. Half." — JVL ([05:23])
• "94% of Germans said that they are not interested in buying a Tesla." — Tim Miller ([03:40])
• "Elon. Suck on an egg." — Tim Miller ([12:19])

For More Information: Subscribe to "Bulwark Takes" and stay updated on in-depth analyses of current events and industry trends. Visit The Bulwark for additional resources and discussions.

Transcript

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[Tim Miller]

Hey guys, it's Tim Miller from the Bulwark here with brand expert, author of the Triad newsletter, the jvl. What's happening?

[JVL]

Jvl hey buddy, it's a great day. Tesla's diving again.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, when you got a brand in crisis, especially one that is run by one of the most loathsome people on the planet, you know, we got to pop on and chat about it. This is what caught my eye. There were two stories that peeked to my eye about Tesla over the last 48 hours. I wanted to get your take on the first one. Here comes from an analyst report from JP Morgan. And again, this is not. This is not some political take. It's not some hot take. This is finance guys trying to assess the health of a company. And they wrote this about Tesla. We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly. And I think we're coming up here on a report that's going to show Tesla sales down unprecedented levels. So what, what do you make of that?

[JVL]

It's amazing. I mean, if you remember the before times, Tim, Brands used to freak out if there was any perceived bias. Michael Jordan famously was asked, why don't you participate in politics? He was like, republicans buy sneakers too. And Elon Musk's basically gone on a tear where he is told at least half of America that he hates them. Like he really, really hates them and believes they need to be subjugated. And what's really weird is that that half of America also happens to be the half that is most predisposed to buying electric vehicles. And so this has turned out to be very, very bad for Tesla sales in Europe, where he has been monkeying around European politics and boosting the AfD, the Neo Nazi party. Tesla sales fell off a cliff in America. The largest market is California. Tesla sales there are down. I want to say it's 40% over the last three months. Tesla sales.

[Tim Miller]

I'll just pop in with you on a couple stats.

[JVL]

Yeah, go ahead.

[Tim Miller]

So the Germans, there's a poll in Germany, it was like 94% of Germans said that they will, that they are not interested in buying a Tesla. They're so hostile to his brand now. So, you know, the biggest European market, gone. Here's the JP Morgan going further. So there are initial estimates, like last year when Elon was campaigning for Trump. But you know, it wasn't clear that he was going to be the co president, like randomly firing veterans and you know, ending the AIDS program overseas, etc. And their estimates at the time were that they would deliver about 444,000 new vehicles in the first quarter. That's down 20% to 355,000. So like almost 100,000 fewer in three months. I mean, just like think about how quick that that dip is.

[JVL]

It's so fast. You're seeing the collapse of Tesla. And here's the real thing is one of my favorite YouTubers, Mr. Regular from Regular car Reviews, likes to say depreciation reveals all. And when you look at the depreciation numbers on Teslas right now, holy shit. You go to cars.com or any of the used car marketplaces and search for EVs, it's just Tesla, Tesla, Tesla, Tesla, Tesla. Everybody is getting rid of them. I mean this is A real thing that you see happening. And as a result, the prices on the secondary market, which are absolutely the truest indicator of where a brand is, are in the toilet. And on top of this, the stock price is in the toilet. Tesla's down almost half. Half. I'm thinking about the old Eddie Murphy routine from its, its high under Joe Biden back when Joe Biden was, I.

[Tim Miller]

Mean it was at an absurd, it was like the stock price was an absurd level before. But even still, so like it looks like the high 52 week high is 488 and it's, it's more than half. 228 now.

[JVL]

Yeah, 2, 228. So this is a brand in utter free fall with basically the only possible out that exists is for Tesla to be turned into a Republican badge where you gotta, you know, it's your duty, your civic duty to buy a Tesla to trigger the wokes or something. And Trump tried this, Trump tried this.

[Tim Miller]

Helps with stock like this much for one day.

[JVL]

But the problem with that is that there is already within the, you know, the manosphere in the world of Fox News. The idea that anybody who drives an electric car is a cuck and a weenie.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, right.

[JVL]

And so like it's, you know, is Tesla gonna outdo the Ford F150 for, you know, as the marker of, a cultural marker of like, hey, I gotta, I'm a salt life guy and I'm pulling my bass pro shop out to the lake, boat out to the lake and I. No, they're not. So I think the real out for them actually is government contracts, right? I mean, Elon is got hold of the government. And here's why Tesla's important, Tim. Because Tesla's stock is the primary reserve of Elon Musk's wealth, right? And as the stock price of Tesla goes down, his net wealth explodes, which makes it harder for him to throw his weight around. And he's still the richest guy in the world, but by less than he used to be. And this is good, all, this is good, all the Tesla.

[Tim Miller]

And also eventually, at some point there should be a shareholder revolt, you would think, and it might force him to spend more time doing other things. Like. Right. I mean, at some point isn't he going to be forced to like go to work maybe?

[JVL]

Here's the problem, right? I mean if, if you believe the insider accounts, Elon Musk's presence at his companies has always been like awash, you know, can he, does he motivate people? I mean, I guess but like at SpaceX, they have a whole division of people whose job is to just keep him away from the people doing the important work.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[JVL]

And I'm not convinced that Elon showing up to Tesla is going to make Tesla's cars better. Like, you know, like they've just done a brand model refresh for the Y, I think and it's already sort of doa, it's very dated already. The problem is that he's turned himself into a cultural marker and that doesn't go away just because he goes back to Tesla.

[Tim Miller]

Right. It's a good point. And this, the other element to this about just like the actual car business, the car business. We had Mike Murphy on the pod a couple weeks ago. Yeah. Go find YouTube archives. She was, he was so good because he does some advising in the electric vehicle space and something that he brought up that I just wasn't aware of because I don't, I don't pay that close of attention to the industry is like the coming Chinese supremacy in the electric car space and how like tough the competition is about to be. And sure, you can maybe tariff the Chinese out of existence and maybe that's going to end up being part of the plan here. But, but so he, he kind of revealed that to me at great length about two weeks ago. And then this other news story that caught my interest the other day is, is China's byd, they, they came out with a claim that they can charge the electric vehicles in about five minutes now. So just like slightly longer than it takes to fill up your gas tank. This is yeah, just like a big practical difference for EV folks. You know that, like that, you know, particularly if you're like not going to be in your garage if you're on a road trip or something. Like it's a pain in the ass to charge the ev. Still, the Chinese maybe have solved this while while the Tesla Stock has tanked, BYD's shares jumped to a 52 week high. And so like there are other. Right. Competitors in the marketplace that other competitors in addition to. Right. Like there's the, there's the political problems, the brand problem, but then there's just like the innovation and the real life.

[JVL]

Yeah, so there's the real life problem, which is that Tesla stock was wildly overvalued because its market share keeps shrinking. So Tesla has incrementally increased the number of cars it sells, but its market share of the total EV market in the US keeps going down. And one of the things that the EV industry watchers have noticed is that EV startups can go from zero to one pretty fast. It really isn't like the internal combustion engine where there's so many parts, such a huge logistics train, that the legacy makers have a giant advantage. You can have a startup like Rivian, like, like BYD now in China, they're, they're subsidized by the government's a little different, but with fewer parts and fewer components. You could, There just isn't. You know, the moat for Tesla in the EV space is nothing like the moat that 4 and GM and Toyota enjoyed in the ice space. So everything about this combines to a car company which is in free fall and it couldn't happen to a nicer guy. The only people I feel sorry for are the people who bought Teslas five years ago, seven years ago, who are driving around these things that are now hard to unload. You know, they don't want to be driving a Nazi mobile. They, they, you know, they don't want to have people, you know, throwing up sea guy's at them.

[Tim Miller]

My buddy lives around the corner, my bestie. He like, you know, he's a good, just a normal Democrat, but like, doesn't care, I guess. Not like a politics junkie. It's not watching our YouTube feed. Right. It's just kind of a normal, nice, democratic guy, doctor, good person, trying to help the world. Bought a Tesla about five years ago. He's just like, you know, cars aren't. He didn't buy it because it was like the NPR tote bag. You know, he's like, he's not a car guy, you know, he's like, I didn't buy this as some sort of like virtue signal. I just bought it because like, I wanted an EV and it was like the best one on the market at the time. And now he's stuck with this thing. And, you know, when I asked him about it the other day, you could just tell how annoyed he is because he's getting asked about it all the time. You know, so it is kind of, it is a burden for, for poor Tesla owners.

[JVL]

Yeah. And again, because the secondary market for them is such crap, you're taking a huge loss if you unload your Tesla now, which is too bad. The other thing is they really have fallen behind. I mean, Tesla really is not state of the art right now. And they're pretty good on charging times. They do lead the industry on charging times. They're good about that, depending on what the Chinese breakthrough really is. But in terms of everything else, when you look around at the car reviews and people who are into this. The Hyundai Ioniqs are very, very good. Even the Cadillac Lyriq is well regarded. The Polestar people love the Polestars.

[Tim Miller]

Polestar's giving away a deal for people who want to trade in their Teslas. They're trying to jump onto this right now.

[JVL]

Yeah, yeah, it's, it's really something. And you know what, Tim? It couldn't happen to a bigger deal.

[Tim Miller]

Really couldn't. The biggest douche, honestly. Well, I guess you can't even say that because he's not even like biggest douche in his current place of employment. And JD Vance is just so far ahead of him, but like one of the top, just like elite, elite S tier douchebags in the entire world history, really. And it's really a shame. So we'll keep monitoring it. Jbl, thank you for bringing your expertise on here as a gay. Also not really a car guy, so I know enough to be dangerous. But we needed your value add here. So thanks for jumping on with me. Elon. Suck on an egg. Listeners, viewers, subscribe to the feed. Tell your friends we'll be back soon.

[Amy Brown]

Hey, it's Amy Brown from the Bobby Bones Show. Join me in supporting St. Jude Children's Research Hospital for a chance to win a trip to meet Megan Maroney at the 2025 I Heart Country Festival in Austin, Texas on May 3rd. Hosted by Bobby Bones. We're going to hook you up with tickets, flights, hotel, food credits and a meet and greet with Megan Maroney. Take action now to support St. Jude and help cure childhood cancer. And you're going to be entered for a chance to win. Visit iheartcountrytrip.com to learn more.