Elon Stirs the Fever Swamp as Trump World SPLINTERS Over Epstein

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – "Elon Stirs the Fever Swamp as Trump World SPLINTERS Over Epstein"

Release Date: July 9, 2025
Host: The Bulwark
Guests: Bill Kristol and Sam Stein

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Introduction

In the July 9, 2025 episode of Bulwark Takes, host Sam Stein engages in a thought-provoking conversation with Bill Kristol, author of Morning Shots, about the evolving dynamics within the Republican party, particularly focusing on Elon Musk's recent political maneuvers and their impact on the Trump-aligned faction. The discussion delves into the strategic implications of targeting Trump Republicans through issues like the Jeffrey Epstein scandal and the broader significance of conspiracism in modern political discourse.

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Elon Musk’s Strategic Push Against Trump Republicans

Bill Kristol initiates the conversation by addressing Elon Musk’s unexpected foray into political activism, specifically his efforts to map out primary challengers targeting Trump-supporting Senate and Congressional Republicans.

“When Musk said he was going to map primary challengers to several Senate and Congressional Republicans who voted for the Big Bad bill, I was skeptical that he would do it. I was skeptical that it would be useful...” (01:30)

Kristol expresses initial doubts about the effectiveness of Musk’s strategy, questioning whether focusing on fiscal issues like debt and deficit would resonate with Trump’s base. However, Musk’s pivot towards the Jeffrey Epstein scandal and other MAGA-favored conspiracy theories demonstrates a more potent approach.

“Now he's jumped on this week, the Jeffrey Epstein stuff and some other also MAGA conspiracy, you know, favorites to attack Trump... he really seems to hate him.” (02:15)

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Impact of Targeting Scandal and Conspiracy Over Economic Issues

Sam Stein concurs with Kristol’s observation that addressing the Epstein scandal holds more sway over Trump’s supporters than traditional economic critiques. Stein emphasizes the unique motivations of Trump’s coalition, which is deeply entrenched in conspiratorial thinking.

“I do think the Epstein stuff matters way more materially than his criticism of, for instance, the debt or the big beautiful bill... the Trump coalition consists of conspiracists.” (03:50)

This focus on scandal and conspiracies creates doubt among Trump's base, potentially weakening their allegiance. The discussion highlights how scandals like Epstein’s can undermine the narratives that have sustained Trump's political influence.

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Strategies for Weakening Trump’s Political Base

Kristol expands on the traditional strategies of peeling away moderate and establishment Republicans from Trump’s influence, noting the limitations of focusing solely on good governance issues.

“If you could show me that we could knock Trump's numbers down 10% by purely good government, the Medicaid, mass deportation, debt and deficit, Ukraine appeals, I would be thrilled. I'm not convinced one can...” (05:17)

He acknowledges that while conventional issues might have limited impact, leveraging conspiratorial scandals presents a viable avenue to erode Trump’s support. This dual approach, combining traditional policy critiques with targeted attacks on conspiracy-fueled narratives, could effectively fragment Trump’s loyalist base.

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Challenges and Ethical Considerations with Elon Musk as an Ally

The conversation shifts to the complexities of aligning with Elon Musk, a figure with a morally ambiguous reputation. Stein voices concerns over Musk’s dubious standing and the potential fallout from associating with him.

“He's also. It's not really a morally righteous figure... I find it like both strategically problematic to get too close to him and morally problematic to get too close to him.” (07:10)

Kristol concurs, highlighting Musk’s controversial tendencies and the risks of endorsing someone who may be as loathsome as Trump. He differentiates Musk’s disruptive influence from historical alliances formed to combat authoritarian regimes, emphasizing that supporting Musk does not equate to a righteous battle against a common foe.

“There’s nothing we should do now. Honestly, what I'm thinking is let's say you get some candidates on the ballot... It won't be Elon personally... But that person is going to take votes away, I think, from the Republican. And if you can get a Democrat elected.” (09:00)

The discussion underscores the delicate balance required in leveraging Musk’s actions without fully endorsing his persona, recognizing that while his interventions may disrupt Trump’s base, they come with significant ethical and strategic concerns.

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Conspiracism as a Central Ideology in Trumpism

Kristol and Stein delve into the role of conspiracism as a foundational element of Trumpism, arguing that it surpasses traditional ideological motivations in driving voter behavior.

“The conspiracism that almost outweighs the ideology. So as you say, the people who don't vote very often, the people who don't follow politics.” (10:13)

This perspective suggests that combating Trump’s influence requires addressing the underlying conspiratorial beliefs that bind his base, rather than solely focusing on conventional policy disagreements. Stein adds that undermining these conspiracy theories could depress Trump’s voter block, though the challenge lies in effectively infiltrating and countering these entrenched narratives.

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Conclusion and Forward-Looking Insights

As the conversation wraps up, Kristol emphasizes the need to remain vigilant and strategic in the face of evolving political tactics within the Republican party. He acknowledges Musk’s disruptive role but maintains caution against forming a solid alliance due to Musk's problematic nature.

“We just, we just watched that sandbox, but we very quietly give Elon a little, you know, a little pat on the... Just a 1/2 of a cheer for Elon, you know.” (11:36)

The episode concludes with a recognition that while unconventional strategies like those employed by Musk hold potential, they must be navigated carefully to avoid unintended consequences. The overarching message is one of strategic adaptability, urging political actors to consider multifaceted approaches to weaken Trump’s hold on the Republican base.

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Key Takeaways

• Elon Musk’s Role: Musk’s shift from fiscal critiques to leveraging high-profile scandals like Epstein’s represents a more effective tactic in challenging Trump Republicans.

• Conspiracism as Central Ideology: Addressing conspiratorial beliefs is crucial in diminishing Trump’s influence, as these beliefs are deeply ingrained within his support base.

• Ethical Dilemmas: Aligning with disruptive figures like Musk poses significant ethical and strategic challenges, necessitating a cautious approach.

• Strategic Implications: A multifaceted strategy that combines traditional policy critiques with targeted attacks on conspiratorial narratives may be necessary to weaken Trump’s political stronghold.

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Notable Quotes

• Bill Kristol:
  “When Musk said he was going to map primary challengers to several Senate and Congressional Republicans who voted for the Big Bad bill, I was skeptical that he would do it. I was skeptical that it would be useful.” (01:30)

• Sam Stein:
  “The Trump coalition consists of conspiracists. I mean, Trump is the chief conspiracist... he speaks their language.” (03:50)

• Bill Kristol:
  “If you could show me that we could knock Trump's numbers down 10% by purely good government... I'm not convinced one can...” (05:17)

• Sam Stein:
  “He's also... not really a morally righteous figure. I find it like both strategically problematic to get too close to him and morally problematic to get too close to him.” (07:10)

• Bill Kristol:
  “Conspiracism almost outweighs the ideology... the people who don't vote very often, the people who don't follow politics.” (10:13)

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Final Thoughts

Bulwark Takes offers a nuanced exploration of the current political landscape, highlighting the complexities of countering Trump's influence through unconventional means. The dialogue between Sam Stein and Bill Kristol provides valuable insights into the strategic considerations necessary for navigating this turbulent terrain, emphasizing the importance of addressing both ideological and conspiratorial elements within the Republican coalition.

Transcript

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[Bill Kristol]

9.

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[Sam Stein]

Hey, guys, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark. I'm joined by Bill Kristol, author of Morning Shots and I guess now a Gen Z podcaster. Bill, pleasure to have you on the. On The Bulwark Takes YouTube platform today. I know you're like, very hip and doing a lot of young.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, I'm going, I'm going with the older generation today, Sam. But, you know, Cameron and I did the Gen Z thing and I'm moving up in the world. I started off with the boomers, my fellow boomers. Then I moved to. What do you. What do you. Some kind of.

[Sam Stein]

I'm. I'm millennial, actually.

[Bill Kristol]

You're a millennial. And now and then to Gen C, it's an upward trajectory, really.

[Sam Stein]

Here you're the Benjamin Button of the bull work. Here we go. We're going to be talking about a very provocative Morning Shots about Elon Musk and the role he plays here for the Never Trumper community. And I don't know if I agree with you. I gotta be honest. Well, let me put this way. I agree with parts of what you. You make, the point you make. But there are parts where I found myself having some discomfort. So why don't you lay out your argument and then let me puncture some holes in it.

[Bill Kristol]

When Musk said he was going to map primary challengers to several Senate and Congressional Republicans who voted for the Big Bad bill, I was skeptical that he would do it. I was skeptical that it would be useful. And people called and said, shouldn't we do something about this or help or, you know, endorse it? And I said, nah. A week later, I've got to say, I think he's more serious about the primary challenges than I thought he was. And I think the nature of them is different from what I expected. Remember, on the Big Bad Bill, as you know, he was complaining about the debt and the deficit. I thought, well, that's not going to work against Trump Republicans. And it's not. You can't really mount. It's just not serious in a way. I mean, it's serious intellectually. It's not politically serious ground for a primary challenge to Trump Republicans, I don't think. But now he's jumped on this week, the Jeffrey Epstein stuff and some other also MAGA conspiracy, you know, favorites to attack Trump. And I think that shows that he really wants to go after Trump. I guess I've been slightly dubious about how deep his split was, but he really seems to hate him. He's willing to embrace anything to go after him. We shouldn't embrace that. We shouldn't praise that. I don't think people who are anti, never Trump world or Democrats should praise Elon at all. Having said that, could that actually peel away some votes? I, you know, it's. What a crazy world we live in. Jeffrey Epstein could peel votes away from Trump, I think, in a way that the budget deficit, that can't. And if Elon wants to do that, we should watch it at least. And then others who are in the dark arts of politics, which you and I aren't, you know, can figure out how to spend super PAC money to help some of those, amplify some, Some of the discomfort in MAGA world against Trump. And I guess one last point. I just, I really do want you to puncture my little balloons here, but part of this is generated from various conversations I had actually over the private one over the weekends that people say, God, it's just you, you guys are making all the good arguments. I love the bulwark, I love other sites. You're making all the arguments against Trump. Are they having any effect? What do we do to really hurt him politically? And it did make me think a little more honestly about just, I mean, one way to hurt a political movement is to fracture it and pry some people away from it. Even if you don't approve of those who are doing the prying away or you don't approve of the issues that they're prying away from. If you think there's a real authoritarian threat to our democracy, we need to weaken Trump. And if Musk can do it by peeling away some of the conspiracists, I guess the point of my little warning shots is more power to him.

[Sam Stein]

Fair enough. All right, so I'll start with the place where I agree. I do think the Epstein stuff matters way more materially than his criticism of, for instance, the debt or the big beautiful bill or whatever you want to call it. That's because I don't really think the Trumpers care all that much or are motivated all that much. By debt and deficits. I think the Trump coalition consists of. Of conspiracists. I mean, Trump is the chief conspiracist. Like, this is how he rose to political power. The birtherism stuff was the fuel. And he speaks their language. Right. And though if you have someone who is saying, actually no, maybe this guy is part of the conspiracy, it does create doubt. And certainly it kind of, it chisels at or it gets at the relationship Trump has built with non political voters. People who just kind of engage in politics through, you know, the manosphere, you know, podcast where they talk about Epstein all the time. So I do think that matters.

[Bill Kristol]

So that's good. Just one footnote to that, because I think you said that very well. But I think it. What other. Typically we all, by we, I mean sort of never Trumpers and so forth, respectable types have thought, how do you peel away the establishment Republicans from Trump? And so we're always focused on what issues might, you know, Medicaid, the budget and stuff, which is legit. And look, some of them can be peeled the way they were in 2018. They were in 2020. Having said we don't focus, how do you peel away parts of the conspiracy kook world from Trump?

[Sam Stein]

Right. It turns out it's because you don't want to. Yeah. Because you.

[Bill Kristol]

But it turns out there's also. There are a limited number of established Republicans who can be peeled away. Apparently they're all like, okay with Trump, basically. And they're going to vote for the Republican congressional and Senate candidates so far as I can tell, in 2026, the ones that don't. That's great. And we should. People like Sarah Longwell and the rest of us can work on peeling the respectable ones away. But it turns out that's one thing that drove me to this in a way. I mean, if you could show me that we could knock Trump's numbers down 10% by purely good government, Medicaid, mass deportation, debt and deficit, Ukraine appeals, I would be thrilled. I'm not convinced one can and therefore one has to have the second car. So that's just one footnote to what you're saying. But I think you're right. Say a word yourself about the Epstein thing, because you followed it all more closely than I had, probably. But I think I just have a feeling it's a bigger issue out there in the fever swamps. And then the fever swamps on this issue are bigger than people like.

[Sam Stein]

I will just, I will just. This is purely anecdotal. Okay. This is purely Anecdotal, but I think it gets at something larger, which is, I have a family member who called me this morning. I'm not going to reveal the person, but they're like, what is going on with the Epstein stuff? And this person is like, you know, not a conspiracist. They. They don't. They've never really engaged on this front. They don't. I don't think they think anything nefarious happened, but they do think something's weird about the way that the administration has now gone about, you know, handling this stuff. And we live in a culture where this type of stuff resonates and people pay attention to it. It's a lot easier to follow. It's certainly juicy, and it's scandalous and it's tragic, obviously, too. And so I think, you know, if you're a casual political observer, and Donald Trump said, hey, we're going to, you know, release this stuff. And Donald Trump's son has been saying, hey, we got to release this stuff. And JD Vance goes on Theo Vaughn's podcast and says, hey, we need to release this stuff. And Pam Bonnie says, hey, I have the stuff, and I'm about to release it. And then suddenly it's like, actually, no, we're not like, I think people's antennas go up for obvious reasons. So I do think there's vulnerabilities there. And I don't think Democrats peel off this crowd, but I do think they depress the crowd, and I think they move the crowd away from Trump. So I think there's opportunity there, I guess, where I don't even know if it's pushing back or puncturing your argument, because I don't know if you're actually making this argument, but if you were to try to explore an informal alliance with Elon, and I'm not saying I don't know if that's what you're saying Democrats should do. I think you're saying push them along, but keep a distance. But if you were, I would have discomfort with that for a variety of reasons. One is, and you articulated this in a calm about a month ago, which is like, he is a disreputable figure. I mean, his numbers are shit. They're just shit. They're dog. And you don't necessarily want that to be associated with your brand. So hugging him too hard, that's a problem. And two is he's also. It's not really a morally righteous figure.

[Bill Kristol]

To say the least.

[Sam Stein]

And I found yesterday the whole situation with Gro spewing This pro Hitler stuff, it's like this guy is problematic to a degree that I'm. I think he rivals Trump. And so I find it like both strategically problematic to get too close to him and morally problematic to get too close to him.

[Bill Kristol]

Totally agree. And I sort of hesitated before writing the piece and why I tried to guide my way to say, look, I think he's as loathsome as Trump. Maybe after this Grok stuff. More loathsome than Trump. He's actually like more pro Hitler than Trump is. It seems like not just fascist adjacent, but just assuming. I don't even understand the Grok thing.

[Sam Stein]

Assuming somehow the styles on it and.

[Bill Kristol]

Suddenly the out somehow he was involved in turning those dolls or someone was.

[Sam Stein]

Who works for he was. He admitted he was turning the dials.

[Bill Kristol]

So. So yeah, I'm totally with you. So I'm not even for, you know, a. It's not like the alliance with Stalin and World War II where everyone swallowed hard and said we got to be with him to defeat Hitler. I'm not even. But that was an official alliance, obviously. Beating Swiss Stalin and coordinating with him. I'm not for that. This is more like just letting the. He wants to do this. No one got him to do this and letting it happen. And then look, once it happens, I mean, then we're talking about actual. I'm less interested in. There's nothing we should do now. Honestly, what I'm thinking is let's say you get some candidates on the ballot. Let's say it's in a, in a, in a Senate race that's close and there's some Elon backed candidate. It won't be Elon personally who's whatever screaming and yelling about Jeffrey Epstein or, or I don't know, would it be crazy to. You don't want that person in the Senate or the House. But that person's probably not going to win. Right. That person is going to take boats away, I think from the Republican. And if you can get a Democrat elected. So look, it's tricky. I don't know, maybe the best thing is just to watch it and hope.

[Sam Stein]

Watch it? Yeah.

[Bill Kristol]

You know, it's like watching any authoritarian regime you don't like abroad. You're grateful.

[Sam Stein]

You retweet it. You don't put anything around the tweet.

[Bill Kristol]

You're grateful. You know, when. What's the same. When I marched to Moscow to try to depose Putin, you sort of rooted for him, though. He's just as disgraceful, I'm sure a character almost as Disgraceful.

[Sam Stein]

I remember that one. Yeah, yeah.

[Bill Kristol]

You know, I mean, things like that. Right. But I do think, I think generally, though, having an attitude that is not. That is interest, open to the fact that Trump can be defeated not simply by peeling away the moderate Republicans, the establishment Republicans, the Don Bacons from Trump world, but also by disruption within Trump world. And I guess the point I would make about that, something you've emphasized and our friend Tom Joslin as well, the degree to which conspiracism is central to Trumpism, it's something it took me a little while to grasp. I thought of it in this first term a little bit more an add on, so to speak. You know, not exactly a bug, but not the central feature. But I, you know, the studies of the Internet have shown that if you're interested in one conspiracy, you get much more interested in another. The best way to get people interested in the election, 2020 election bullshit conspiracy arguments was to find people who were interested in other conspiracies. QAnon, anti vax, whatever. Not to find people who are conservative. You know what I mean? It's not, in a way, it's the conspiracism that almost outweighs the. The ideology. So as you say, the people who don't vote very often, the people who don't follow politics.

[Sam Stein]

Oh, I think the conspiracism is the ideology. Well, fair enough. Yeah. No, no. And I think. And I think there's something to it in that if you can have someone out conspiracy theory Trump, then there is a way to depress his voting block. It's just. I don't know how you, like, get in that sandbox, though. All right, let's leave it there because.

[Bill Kristol]

We just, we just watched that sandbox, but we very quietly give Elon a little, you know, a little pat on the. I don't even want to give him a pat on the back. Just a 1/2 of a cheer for Elon, you know.

[Sam Stein]

Fair enough. All right, Bill, thanks so much, man. Appreciate it. Go check out his column and Morning Shot. Subscribe to both that and subscribe to our YouTube feed and we will talk to you soon.

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