Bulwark Takes: "Energy Costs Are Way Up. Will It Hurt Trump?"

Date: August 20, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Jonathan Cohn (Author, "The Breakdown" newsletter)

Main Theme

This episode explores the rapid increase in electricity costs across the United States, the contributing factors (including the repeal of clean energy incentives and the booming energy demands of AI/data centers), and the political implications, especially for Donald Trump and Republicans. Tim Miller and Jonathan Cohn unpack both the policy impacts and how they play in the ongoing political narrative leading up to the 2026 elections.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What's Driving Rising Electricity Bills?

• Multiple factors are behind rising electricity costs:
  • Surging energy demand from new AI/data centers.
  • Deferred maintenance of the aging electricity grid.
  • Recent repeal of clean energy tax credits.
  • Impact of new equipment tariffs.
• Jonathan Cohn’s summary:

  "We are seeing this rise in electricity costs... The two big ones are... the surge in demand from data centers, AI—they just suck up so much power—and then we've got this aging grid... That gets passed on to electricity bills."
  —Jonathan Cohn [01:01–01:53]

2. Repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act Incentives

• The Inflation Reduction Act previously included tax credits and subsidies to encourage wind, solar, and battery deployment.
• Trump and Republicans, after regaining power, repealed these credits/incentives, removing support for additional energy production that could have helped stabilize or reduce prices.
• Cohn’s overview:

  "That was money that was going to sort of buy energy for the American people. And that money got taken away and now is, you know, being spent on tax cuts or whatever."
  —Jonathan Cohn [05:18–05:33]

3. Tariffs and Their Effects on Energy Costs

• New tariffs increase the prices of equipment and materials (for renewables and grid upgrades), which are passed on directly to consumers.
• Cohn on tariffs:

  "You're building power lines, you're building generators, you're building transform... they’re a good deal and people are going to still build them, but they're going to get more expensive. So that just all gets filtered down to our products."
  —Jonathan Cohn [05:39–06:07]

4. AI/Data Centers as a New Strain

• The exponential growth of AI and data centers creates intense, localized surges in electricity demand.
• States like Virginia and Texas, with higher concentrations of data centers, are seeing sharper increases in bills.
• Illustrative example:
  • Ohio household electricity bills have increased by about $15/month due to new data centers.
  • Virginia expects bills could rise by 25%.
• Cohn on immediate and future impacts:

  "AI is such a power intensive thing. It is already starting to sort of, you know, drive up demand for power... the power companies have to account for that as they plan."
  —Jonathan Cohn [06:57–07:43]

5. Limits of "All of the Above" Energy Strategies

• The GOP argument that simply producing more natural gas or coal will fix prices ignores grid realities and turbine shortages (7-year wait for new turbines), making rapid conversion impossible.
• Wind and solar remain the quickest to deploy—and now the cheapest—but recent policy changes undercut their rollout.
• Cohn emphasizes:

  "If you want energy, you should love wind and solar, because that's the way to get it as quickly as possible."
  —Jonathan Cohn [04:07]

6. Political Implications for Trump & the GOP

• Miller notes energy costs are especially salient among economically-focused voters Trump must win back.
• Rising electricity prices might offset minor improvements elsewhere (e.g., gasoline) and compound other pocketbook pressures (housing, interest rates, groceries).
• Republicans mostly blame Biden, but are yet to offer concrete solutions—or to directly focus on the "forgotten man’s electricity bill."
• Memorable exchange:

  "They're going to say, oh, it's not our fault, it's Joe Biden's fault. You know, that's always their excuse... Does that work? I don't know."
  —Jonathan Cohn [10:44]

7. Broader Cost-of-Living and Policy Trends

• Cohn flags that health insurance premiums are also set to spike if ACA subsidies lapse in December, predicting further attempts to blame Democrats.

  "At some point you gotta think, at some point people get tired of this excuse. It's not my fault... Surely some of it's your fault."
  —Jonathan Cohn [11:24]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tim on his solar panel success:

  "No complaints for me. I should just say my electricity bill is going... down because I finally got solar panels up on my roof this summer, like the hippie lib that I've become."
  —Tim Miller [02:27]

• Cohn welcomes him:

  "Welcome to the hippie liberal club. Nice to have you here."
  —Jonathan Cohn [03:24]

• On the broader story:

  "Once you build a wind plant, it's like cost almost nothing to run. Same with solar. You know, it's a lot better than a coal plant... So these were investments that were going to pay off over time. And now you have this crazy situation where not only have they taken the money away... They're actually making our electricity bills higher. I mean, go figure."
  —Jonathan Cohn [08:24–09:23]

• On political blame games:

  "At some point people get tired of this excuse. It's not my fault... I mean, well, you've been president for two years now. I mean, surely some of it's your fault."
  —Jonathan Cohn [11:24]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00–01:00: Introduction & summary of rising energy costs
• 01:00–02:27: Main factors behind surging prices (AI/data centers, aging grid)
• 02:27–03:32: Anecdotes about regional impacts, solar panels, Biden admin. response
• 03:32–05:02: Difficulties in quickly expanding natural gas, wind/solar as fastest additions
• 05:02–05:39: Specifics on the repeal of Inflation Reduction Act energy incentives
• 05:39–06:07: Impact of tariffs on renewables and grid costs
• 06:07–08:16: AI/data center energy consumption and regional bill increases (Ohio, Virginia)
• 08:16–09:23: Longer-term policy bets: wind/solar payoff, confusing moves in Michigan
• 09:23–11:03: Political fallout, Trump/RNC strategies, economic anxieties
• 11:03–11:53: Cohn highlights looming healthcare cost increases, potential further blame games

Tone and Style

Engaged, lightly humorous, policy-savvy, and direct. Tim Miller provides anecdotal and political commentary, while Jonathan Cohn brings depth on policy and economics—always clear on causality but mindful of political spin and blame-shifting.

Takeaways

• Electricity bills are up nationally, driven by increased demand from AI/data centers, policy reversals on clean energy, and tariffs.
• The repeal of clean energy credits represents a significant policy shift likely to keep prices high.
• The narrative is complicated: both systemic (infrastructure, demand) and political (who bears blame, what solutions exist).
• Republicans are mostly focused on blaming Democrats but not offering clear remedies, which could have consequences among price-sensitive voters.

Recommended Action:
For more in-depth policy analysis on health care and energy, sign up for Jonathan Cohn's newsletter "The Breakdown" at thebulwark.com.