Bulwark Takes: GOP in Total Chaos Over “Big, Beautiful Bill”

Release Date: May 15, 2025

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, hosts Sam Stein and Arthur Delaney delve into the escalating turmoil within the House Republicans surrounding the proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The discussion provides a comprehensive analysis of the bill's current status, internal party conflicts, key policy disputes, and the potential implications for the GOP's legislative agenda.

Introduction and Current Situation

[00:00] Sam Stein:
Sam Stein opens the conversation by welcoming Arthur Delaney of HuffPost, highlighting the anticipation of discussing what appears to be a looming crisis for House Republicans regarding Donald Trump's ambitious legislative proposal.

[00:21] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur confirms the bill's significance, describing it as potentially "the biggest bill ever passed in our country's history."

Overview of the “One Big Beautiful Bill”

[01:06] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur outlines the bill's primary components, emphasizing the dynamic tensions within the House Republican conference. He explains that the bill encompasses significant tax cuts coupled with substantial spending reductions aimed at offsetting the fiscal impact of these cuts.

[02:08] Arthur Delaney:
He specifies the two main areas of contention:

1. Tax Cuts: Broad support exists for tax reductions, but disagreements arise over the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction.
2. Spending Cuts: Disputes center on reductions to Medicaid and SNAP, with conservative members advocating for more aggressive cuts.

Internal Conflicts: Tax Cuts and SALT Deduction

[03:07] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur delves into the SALT deduction debate, highlighting that while all Republicans support tax cuts, a faction seeks a specific increase in the SALT deduction. Currently set at a $10,000 limit, there's pushback against increasing it to $30,000 with a phase-out for higher earners.

[03:23] Sam Stein:
Sam prompts further clarification, noting the deduction's impact on states with high taxes like New York, New Jersey, and California.

[04:06] Arthur Delaney:
He reveals that some Republicans from these high-tax states are dissatisfied with the proposed $30,000 cap and are advocating for higher limits, though exact figures like $40,000 haven’t been publicly disclosed.

Spending Cuts: Medicaid and SNAP Reductions

[04:46] Sam Stein:
Sam shifts focus to the spending side, questioning why the substantial cuts may not satisfy the conservative wing of the party.

[05:04] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur explains that while the bill proposes one of the largest spending cuts, it falls short of deficit neutrality. He references the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections, which estimate that over [05:04] "8.7 million people will lose Medicaid," with around [05:04] "7 million of those losing Medicaid over 10 years."

[05:18] Sam Stein:
He underscores the magnitude of these cuts, mentioning a trillion dollars allocated to Medicaid and SNAP reductions over a decade.

[05:22] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur elaborates on the conservative dissatisfaction, pointing out that the implementation of Medicaid work requirements is slated for 2029, a timeline some conservatives find too delayed. They argue that the cuts are merely “saving money on paper” without immediate relief.

[05:36] Sam Stein:
He acknowledges the criticism, noting that conservatives believe the pain from these cuts is being postponed rather than addressed promptly.

Budget Committee Vote and Leadership Challenges

[07:28] Sam Stein:
Sam addresses the broader implications of internal dissent, referencing figures like Josh Hawley and Ron Johnson who have declared their opposition to the bill, complicating the passage process.

[08:28] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur discusses the reluctance of key figures, such as Nick Lalota from New York, who prefer not to vote until receiving explicit support from Donald Trump and the Senate. This hesitancy undermines the House's leverage and foreshadows potential negotiations or failures in the Senate.

[09:21] Sam Stein:
He queries Arthur on Speaker Mike Johnson's management of the bill's passage, especially regarding his strategy of delaying definitive votes and assuring flexibility.

[09:39] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur praises Johnson's composed and strategic approach but remains skeptical about the bill's ultimate success. He draws parallels to previous Republican leadership challenges, noting that significant embarrassments within the House are rare but possible.

Potential Outcomes and Future Implications

[10:18] Sam Stein:
Sam likens the situation to the Kevin McCarthy era, where leadership struggles led to major setbacks, suggesting that similar dynamics could emerge under Johnson's tenure.

[10:28] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur contrasts Johnson's demeanor with McCarthy's, highlighting Johnson's calmness and optimism despite the formidable challenges. He expresses doubt that the bill will completely fail but acknowledges the slim chances of success without meaningful concessions.

[11:14] Arthur Delaney:
He remains cautious, noting that while Johnson is pushing forward with the bill, the tight timeline until Memorial Day adds pressure and increases the risk of failure.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

[11:35] Sam Stein:
Sam wraps up the discussion by urging Arthur to return to his journalistic duties, appreciating his insights into the complex legislative process.

[11:39] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur humorously responds, highlighting the challenges of staying informed amidst political maneuvering.

[11:46] Sam Stein:
Sam concludes the episode on a light note, expressing gratitude for Arthur's participation and hinting at future collaborations.

Key Takeaways

• Legislative Stalemate: The GOP faces significant internal divisions over the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” primarily between hardline conservatives and moderate Republicans.

• Policy Disputes: Key disagreements revolve around the extent of tax cuts, specifically the SALT deduction, and the scale and timing of spending cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.

• Leadership Challenges: Speaker Mike Johnson's leadership is under scrutiny as he navigates the complex negotiations, balancing differing factions within the party.

• Potential Outcomes: While passage is not deemed impossible, the bill faces substantial hurdles, including possible resistance in the Senate and ongoing internal dissent.

• Implications for the Future: The struggle over this bill highlights the broader challenges within the GOP in maintaining unity and achieving legislative goals amidst diverging priorities.

Notable Quotes:

• Arthur Delaney [00:45]: “It will be the biggest bill ever passed in our country's history.”

• Arthur Delaney [02:08]: “The two big parts of this are the tax cuts and the spending cuts that partly pay for the tax cuts.”

• Arthur Delaney [05:04]: “Eight million. More than 8 million people lose health insurance, with some 7 million of those losing Medicaid over 10 years.”

• Arthur Delaney [08:28]: “If they do pass a slightly modified version of what they got right now, if they do pass it in the House, the Senate won't accept it and they'll wind up in a negotiation with them, too.”

• Arthur Delaney [10:18]: “He's always calmly taking questions and giving a wry smile when you ask about the impossible task he's got.”

This episode of Bulwark Takes offers a detailed exploration of the intricate and volatile dynamics within the House Republican conference as they attempt to navigate the passage of a landmark legislative package amidst internal discord and external pressures.