GOP in Total Chaos Over “Big, Beautiful Bill”

Summary

Bulwark Takes: GOP in Total Chaos Over “Big, Beautiful Bill”

Release Date: May 15, 2025

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, hosts Sam Stein and Arthur Delaney delve into the escalating turmoil within the House Republicans surrounding the proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The discussion provides a comprehensive analysis of the bill's current status, internal party conflicts, key policy disputes, and the potential implications for the GOP's legislative agenda.

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Introduction and Current Situation

[00:00] Sam Stein:
Sam Stein opens the conversation by welcoming Arthur Delaney of HuffPost, highlighting the anticipation of discussing what appears to be a looming crisis for House Republicans regarding Donald Trump's ambitious legislative proposal.

[00:21] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur confirms the bill's significance, describing it as potentially "the biggest bill ever passed in our country's history."

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Overview of the “One Big Beautiful Bill”

[01:06] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur outlines the bill's primary components, emphasizing the dynamic tensions within the House Republican conference. He explains that the bill encompasses significant tax cuts coupled with substantial spending reductions aimed at offsetting the fiscal impact of these cuts.

[02:08] Arthur Delaney:
He specifies the two main areas of contention:

1. Tax Cuts: Broad support exists for tax reductions, but disagreements arise over the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction.
2. Spending Cuts: Disputes center on reductions to Medicaid and SNAP, with conservative members advocating for more aggressive cuts.

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Internal Conflicts: Tax Cuts and SALT Deduction

[03:07] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur delves into the SALT deduction debate, highlighting that while all Republicans support tax cuts, a faction seeks a specific increase in the SALT deduction. Currently set at a $10,000 limit, there's pushback against increasing it to $30,000 with a phase-out for higher earners.

[03:23] Sam Stein:
Sam prompts further clarification, noting the deduction's impact on states with high taxes like New York, New Jersey, and California.

[04:06] Arthur Delaney:
He reveals that some Republicans from these high-tax states are dissatisfied with the proposed $30,000 cap and are advocating for higher limits, though exact figures like $40,000 haven’t been publicly disclosed.

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Spending Cuts: Medicaid and SNAP Reductions

[04:46] Sam Stein:
Sam shifts focus to the spending side, questioning why the substantial cuts may not satisfy the conservative wing of the party.

[05:04] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur explains that while the bill proposes one of the largest spending cuts, it falls short of deficit neutrality. He references the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections, which estimate that over [05:04] "8.7 million people will lose Medicaid," with around [05:04] "7 million of those losing Medicaid over 10 years."

[05:18] Sam Stein:
He underscores the magnitude of these cuts, mentioning a trillion dollars allocated to Medicaid and SNAP reductions over a decade.

[05:22] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur elaborates on the conservative dissatisfaction, pointing out that the implementation of Medicaid work requirements is slated for 2029, a timeline some conservatives find too delayed. They argue that the cuts are merely “saving money on paper” without immediate relief.

[05:36] Sam Stein:
He acknowledges the criticism, noting that conservatives believe the pain from these cuts is being postponed rather than addressed promptly.

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Budget Committee Vote and Leadership Challenges

[07:28] Sam Stein:
Sam addresses the broader implications of internal dissent, referencing figures like Josh Hawley and Ron Johnson who have declared their opposition to the bill, complicating the passage process.

[08:28] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur discusses the reluctance of key figures, such as Nick Lalota from New York, who prefer not to vote until receiving explicit support from Donald Trump and the Senate. This hesitancy undermines the House's leverage and foreshadows potential negotiations or failures in the Senate.

[09:21] Sam Stein:
He queries Arthur on Speaker Mike Johnson's management of the bill's passage, especially regarding his strategy of delaying definitive votes and assuring flexibility.

[09:39] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur praises Johnson's composed and strategic approach but remains skeptical about the bill's ultimate success. He draws parallels to previous Republican leadership challenges, noting that significant embarrassments within the House are rare but possible.

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Potential Outcomes and Future Implications

[10:18] Sam Stein:
Sam likens the situation to the Kevin McCarthy era, where leadership struggles led to major setbacks, suggesting that similar dynamics could emerge under Johnson's tenure.

[10:28] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur contrasts Johnson's demeanor with McCarthy's, highlighting Johnson's calmness and optimism despite the formidable challenges. He expresses doubt that the bill will completely fail but acknowledges the slim chances of success without meaningful concessions.

[11:14] Arthur Delaney:
He remains cautious, noting that while Johnson is pushing forward with the bill, the tight timeline until Memorial Day adds pressure and increases the risk of failure.

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Conclusion and Final Thoughts

[11:35] Sam Stein:
Sam wraps up the discussion by urging Arthur to return to his journalistic duties, appreciating his insights into the complex legislative process.

[11:39] Arthur Delaney:
Arthur humorously responds, highlighting the challenges of staying informed amidst political maneuvering.

[11:46] Sam Stein:
Sam concludes the episode on a light note, expressing gratitude for Arthur's participation and hinting at future collaborations.

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Key Takeaways

• Legislative Stalemate: The GOP faces significant internal divisions over the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” primarily between hardline conservatives and moderate Republicans.

• Policy Disputes: Key disagreements revolve around the extent of tax cuts, specifically the SALT deduction, and the scale and timing of spending cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.

• Leadership Challenges: Speaker Mike Johnson's leadership is under scrutiny as he navigates the complex negotiations, balancing differing factions within the party.

• Potential Outcomes: While passage is not deemed impossible, the bill faces substantial hurdles, including possible resistance in the Senate and ongoing internal dissent.

• Implications for the Future: The struggle over this bill highlights the broader challenges within the GOP in maintaining unity and achieving legislative goals amidst diverging priorities.

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Notable Quotes:

• Arthur Delaney [00:45]: “It will be the biggest bill ever passed in our country's history.”

• Arthur Delaney [02:08]: “The two big parts of this are the tax cuts and the spending cuts that partly pay for the tax cuts.”

• Arthur Delaney [05:04]: “Eight million. More than 8 million people lose health insurance, with some 7 million of those losing Medicaid over 10 years.”

• Arthur Delaney [08:28]: “If they do pass a slightly modified version of what they got right now, if they do pass it in the House, the Senate won't accept it and they'll wind up in a negotiation with them, too.”

• Arthur Delaney [10:18]: “He's always calmly taking questions and giving a wry smile when you ask about the impossible task he's got.”

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This episode of Bulwark Takes offers a detailed exploration of the intricate and volatile dynamics within the House Republican conference as they attempt to navigate the passage of a landmark legislative package amidst internal discord and external pressures.

Transcript

[Sam Stein]

Hey, guys, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulk, and I'm joined by a friend of the show. It's been way too long since we've had him back. I've missed him tremendously. I'm sure you have, too. The one, the only, Arthur Delaney of HuffPost. Is it still HuffPost because he got a new logo and I don't know if you have a new name. It's still HuffPost, right?

[Arthur Delaney]

Still HuffPost. Slightly different shade of green, I noticed.

[Sam Stein]

Arthur, thank you so much for doing this. We're going to get into what appears to be a coming calamity, although you never know with these things. They always change. But at this moment, at 4:38pm on Thursday, May 15, it appears to be a coming calamity for the House Republicans as they considered Donald Trump's big, beautiful bill.

[Arthur Delaney]

It's called the one big beautiful bill and it will be the biggest bill ever passed in our country's history.

[Sam Stein]

Again, caveats galore. It is a, it is a rapidly changing environment. We just don't know where we're going to be in two hours from now. But what is the current state of play in as simple English as you can give it?

[Arthur Delaney]

So it's not changing that rapidly. What's happening now is that the dynamic within the House among Republicans is coming to a head as they reach do or die moments on their big, beautiful bill. They, they have always had totally irreconcilable policy priorities from different members of the conference. And they've papered over that by saying, just vote for it, we'll fix it later, just vote for it, we'll fix it later. And so they've been through a series of procedural votes that got them to this point, but now they want to pass the bill next week and they can no longer say, we'll fix it.

[Sam Stein]

Later, we'll fix it later.

[Arthur Delaney]

No, we're coming up on the final version now. They have a budget committee vote on the first final draft of the bill Friday morning and they are still saying we'll fix it later because they'll do it.

[Sam Stein]

So let's stop there for a second. What are the main areas of disputes, policy wise?

[Arthur Delaney]

The two big parts of this are the tax cuts and the spending cuts that partly pay for the tax cuts. And so the right wingers, people like Chip Roy, want the biggest spending cuts possible. Look, we didn't come here to claim that we're going to reform things and then not do it. But there's a whole faction of moderate Republicans including ones who represent districts in Democratic states and that Kamala Harris won. We're just like, no, no, we do not accept your steep cuts to Medicaid or to snap.

[Sam Stein]

Now, I know I say explain this in like, very simple English, but I think you're oversimplifying it because you're talking to me like I'm, you know, a two year old and I, and I would appreciate a little bit more respect, Arthur. Okay, so we. Spending cuts, Medicaid, they don't want some of these reforms. And then the tax side, there's some issues with salt deductions and things like that. So talk about the tax side.

[Arthur Delaney]

So, so there's. On the tax side, everyone loves tax cuts. But then there's this. There's the separate group that wants this one specific tax cut for state and local. It's a, it's a, it's a deduction for what you've paid in your state and local taxes.

[Sam Stein]

Right.

[Arthur Delaney]

And guys, so if you have, if.

[Sam Stein]

You have really high state taxes, you want a bigger deduction. We're talking about like New York, Jersey, California, basically those three states. Yeah, yeah. And there are actually a number, a handful of Republicans who are from those states who are the most endangered Republicans who really want to like up the deduction level. And they're not getting it. But why aren't they getting it? That's been confusing to me. Why not just give it to them?

[Arthur Delaney]

Well, that's the thing. They are getting it. In the draft of the bill they're all looking at. It goes from a limit of $10,000 in that deduction to 30 with a phase out so that people who are really rich can't claim it. And they're just like, no, we want more. What number do they want? They won't tell anybody publicly.

[Sam Stein]

So there's 40.

[Arthur Delaney]

That number. That number has been been floated, but no, it's 30 in the text. And they definitely want something higher than that. And so that's what they're fighting about.

[Sam Stein]

And, but they're not the problem now, right?

[Arthur Delaney]

They are the problem now.

[Sam Stein]

They're not the problem in the Budget Committee. I'm talking about the Budget Committee. Sorry, this is getting really wonky, but we have a vote coming up tonight. Potentially or Friday, we don't know. And the real problem that Speaker Johnson's facing is not from them. That's going to come down the road. The real problem he's facing now is the conservatives who say, you're not cutting enough from this bill.

[Arthur Delaney]

That's right. And a Bunch of the right wingers on the Budget Committee said Thursday.

[Sam Stein]

But doesn't this bill cut a ton?

[Arthur Delaney]

Not really. I mean, yes, one of the largest spending cuts ever, but relative to the tax cuts, they're not even trying to make it deficit neutral because the cbo.

[Sam Stein]

The Congressional Budget Office, did say that we're looking at, what, 8.7 million or so people who will lose Medicaid.

[Arthur Delaney]

Eight million. More than 8 million people lose health insurance, with some 7 million of those losing Medicaid over 10 years. And it's a trillion dollars in cuts over 10 years to Medicaid and SNAP.

[Sam Stein]

And these conservatives say that's not enough because it's phased in too late or just it's not enough, period.

[Arthur Delaney]

Yeah, that's part of it is that one of the biggest cuts to Medicaid is through imposing a new work requirement, which is basically just if you don't do your paperwork to prove you have a job, we kick you off. It's a limit on benefits for people who are unemployed.

[Sam Stein]

No offense to you on this one, but we have Jonathan Cohn on staff and he knows this better than you. If you're interested in this, tune in tonight at 9pm for a live emergency briefing with Jonathan Cohn and me. Anyways, keep going.

[Arthur Delaney]

Since you poached Jonathan from us, I've had to learn all this. So, anyway, these guys are mad that the Medicaid work requirement wouldn't start until 2029.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. They want the people kicked off earlier.

[Arthur Delaney]

Right. And there's.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah.

[Arthur Delaney]

Well, yeah. And it's also. It's like, that's suspicious. You mean you're saving money on paper with that? You're not actually enacting.

[Sam Stein]

That is true. There is something valid about that. Complaint is we're just hiding the pain for a few years.

[Arthur Delaney]

Yeah. The next president could undo it.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. All right, let's get rid of this veggie talk and let's get to the candy. How real is this in terms of. It could all blow up. Like, do you. Because we've been down this. Let's be real. We've been down this road so many times, it looks like it's going to blow up. They make some concessions to the conservatives, they get on board, the moderates get pissy, but they don't do anything about it. And then, you know, Victoria Sparks, you know, changes her mind 15 times and eventually says, yeah, I'll vote for it. And like, isn't that just what's going to happen here?

[Arthur Delaney]

That's definitely possible. Like, you look, you Take, take them at their word. There is no way it can pass. But if you have a brain and a memory and you're a sentient being, you know that they will all fold except Thomas Massie or that at least they all can fold. And to get here on one of the procedural votes, all of the conservatives said, well, we won't vote for this. And then they had a meeting with the speaker and I guess they might have got Trump on the phone for that. They all marched out and caved together. And that's a dynamic that can't come into play yet. Donald Trump, like, he winds up on the phone.

[Sam Stein]

So you're talking about the earlier vote on the rules to like get us to this place we are in now. Now we have another vote on the budget that's coming up and that's just in the committee and they have to get that and then they have to cobble it. That's the cobbler altogether. And then they have to consider it for the full House.

[Arthur Delaney]

Right. So they want to do that next week. And that, that's a toughie. That's where the SALT guys, the Medicaid guys, they all come in. They all come in. And then after that you have the Senate where a bunch of senators.

[Sam Stein]

That's my question for you. Yeah. Because this is what happened yesterday. Is that Josh Hawley, Ron Johnson, even, they said, we're not going to pass this bill. Like we're just not going to pass this bill. Does that impact, I mean, you've been on Hill there has that impact it at all how some of these House Republicans, maybe the moderate ones, think about this, because in essence, they're being asked to take a vote to go on record saying, sure, I'm fine voting for a bill that will cut Medicaid by 8 or 7.8 million people.

[Arthur Delaney]

Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

Knowing that it won't pass because, and in this case, because Josh Hawley says there's no way I will stomach a bill that's going to have 7.8 million people lose their Medicaid.

[Arthur Delaney]

Yeah, that's, that's making a problem for Republicans. I talked to Nick Lalota, one of the New York SALT guys, yesterday, and he said, I don't want to vote for this thing until it's got Trump's blessing, it's got the Senate's blessing. I don't want to take this pointless vote if I'm not getting the things I'm asking for and then have it blow up anyway. But the House does not have the leverage to get the Senate's blessing on this. And there's no doubt that if they do pass a slightly modified version of what they got right now, if they do pass it in the House, the Senate won't accept it and they'll wind up in a negotiation with them, too. I still wouldn't say this thing is doomed just based on how everyone has caved before.

[Sam Stein]

What do you make of how the speaker has managed this process? Definitely a lot of kicking the can down the road, a lot of assurances that things will get fixed eventually. And eventually you do have to, like, you know, say yes or no to it. And. But he's not there yet, right? Like there's some more kicking that can be done.

[Arthur Delaney]

Yeah, he's been pretty skillful. He's always affable and put together. And he describes it as, well, you say, Mr. Speaker, you cannot possibly reconcile the requests of the different corners of your conference. And he says, oh, yeah, well, we're just going to turn some dials and find the level that suits everybody. He keeps saying that. And quite frankly, he might be right. But I don't know, it certainly could tank. And we've seen Republicans in the House particularly exposed themselves to massive embarrassment many times in the past few years. It hasn't really happened. Not this Mike Johnson on this scale, but it certainly could.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. That's like a Kevin McCarthy era thing, right? It's like, oh, no, we really screwed up and then they, like, have to go back to the drawing board. Hasn't really happened yet.

[Arthur Delaney]

No. And Kevin McCarthy, you would seem exasperated and get cranky, and Mike Johnson has never seemed like that, at least not to me. He's always calmly taking questions and giving a wry smile when you ask about the impossible task he's got. And so far, it's mostly worked. There have been less important votes that have failed or that they've had to yank from the floor. And that's been an embarrassment to people who, like, care about House rule votes, which I don't think any normal person should care.

[Sam Stein]

But.

[Arthur Delaney]

But I. He's barreling for it as if this will be fine, even if they are saying, well, yeah, we might have to postpone that budget vote and then that if they did that, it could delay their goal of passing the whole thing by Memorial Day. But I still wouldn't.

[Sam Stein]

Crazy.

[Arthur Delaney]

I'm still skeptical that it would totally fail.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, Memorial Day is tight, dude. That's pretty crazy. All right, Arthur Delaney, get back to work, man. What are you doing talking to me? You should be roaming the halls. You should be getting the quotes.

[Arthur Delaney]

I was just roaming. I was just roaming.

[Sam Stein]

Go back and roam.

[Arthur Delaney]

I stopped roaming for two seconds and you told me to roam.

[Sam Stein]

Oh, man, it's such a pleasure having you on. Why don't we do this more regularly?

[Arthur Delaney]

I don't know. Because you got cone.

[Sam Stein]

I guess I got cone. I approached a good one, didn't I? All right, Arthur. Thanks so much, buddy. Appreciate it.

[Arthur Delaney]

Stay in charge.

[Sam Stein]

Get you back on. Take care.