Bulwark Takes — “Hertling and Kristol on Venezuela, Tensions in Europe, and a Pentagon Under Pressure”

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Host: Bill Kristol
Guest: Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Mark Hertling
Date: November 16, 2025

Episode Overview

Bill Kristol and retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling dive deep into three pressing national security topics: the potential for U.S. military action in Venezuela, shifting U.S. military posture in Europe, and extensive leadership turnover at the Pentagon. The discussion offers sobering inside perspectives on the planning and consequences of possible military action, the complexities of NATO force deployments, and concerns over growing dysfunction and politicization inside the Department of Defense.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Mark Hertling’s Forthcoming Book (01:00–02:06)

• Bill and Mark begin by discussing Mark’s new book, a personal journal from his time during Desert Storm through the present, reflecting on transformation within the U.S. Army and the nation.
• Quote:
  “It’s a book that dives deeply into reflections and a journal from Desert Storm and then what happened over the next 35 years that the army adapted, the nation adapted.” (Mark Hertling, 01:18)

2. Military Escalation and Uncertainty Over Venezuela (02:06–16:44)

• Buildup to Action:
  There are widespread rumors of imminent U.S. strikes or even invasion in Venezuela. Kristol and Hertling discuss the drumbeat of speculation, the White House teasing “options,” and the Pentagon’s standard practice of presenting a range of possible actions (“baby bear, mama bear, papa bear”).
• Scale and Complexity:
  Hertling warns that, contrary to popular characterizations, Venezuela is “larger than Ukraine,” with 30 million people and vast urban centers—making any large-scale operation daunting.
  • Quote:
    “It ain’t that small. In fact, it’s larger than Ukraine... about twice as large as the state of Texas. It has 30 million people... and it’s bigger than Iraq by two.” (Mark Hertling, 03:50)
• War Plans and Contingency Approvals:
  Hertling explains how, in past administrations, extensive interagency planning ensured all aspects of conflict were considered, including humanitarian and regime-change scenarios.
  • He doubts this administration is engaging in the same robust, cross-agency review due to recent changes at the National Security Council and a more ad hoc process.
• Legal and Strategic Concerns:
  There is no congressional authorization for military force in Venezuela; Hertling is deeply troubled by rhetoric dismissive of U.S. law and rules of armed conflict.
  • Quote:
    “There’s things like the rule of law and the rule of armed conflict that need to apply. But I remember Secretary Hegseth kind of brushing those off at the meeting of the generals...” (Mark Hertling, 10:48)
• Lack of Public Debate and Strategic Clarity:
  Kristol is struck by the lack of public debate, strategy, or preparation on the home front. Both agree that small-scale strikes (“pinpricks”) are not linked to a larger plan, and compare flawed assumptions to the lead-up to Iraq.
  • Quote:
    “Wars start pretty quickly, but they don’t end very well unless you’ve got a very good plan.” (Mark Hertling, 09:04)
• Implications of Action:
  Hertling strongly cautions against comparisons with Panama (1989), calling it “dangerously misleading.” He notes that the deployment of U.S. assets (like the USS Ford) is best characterized as a deterrent, but without a clear end state, “if suddenly strikes start occurring, boy, Katie, bar the door. It’s going to be ugly.” (Mark Hertling, 15:44)

3. Chain of Command and International Blowback (16:44–20:14)

• Resignation and Legality:
  The recent resignation of Admiral Hosley, commander of Southern Command, is unprecedented, signaling severe concerns among senior officers about the legality of recent operations.
• International Fallout:
  U.S. partners (UK, France, Netherlands, Colombia) are reportedly refusing to share intelligence related to ongoing operations in the Caribbean, a highly unusual snub and a sign of deep unease.
  • Quote:
    “Those are really huge actions and they’re going under the radar of most of our media...” (Mark Hertling, 18:55)
  • Some European partners are even bringing the issue before the UN, likening U.S. actions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Kristol’s Reaction:
  “To cut off intelligence in an ongoing situation, I mean, that’s pretty rare, isn’t it?” (Bill Kristol, 19:39)

4. U.S. Military Posture and Confusion in Europe (20:14–25:54)

• Romania and NATO Flank Operations:
  Discussion turns to confusion in U.S. messaging—announcing withdrawals from Romania (the closest NATO base to Russia), yet still rotating thousands of troops through a new headquarters.
  • Quote:
    “Even though the Pentagon is saying they’re pulling forces out, there’s a new division headquarters that just arrived and they’re going to be there at least nine months with 3,000 soldiers in four different countries.” (Mark Hertling, 22:05)
• Strategic Impact of USS Ford Redeployment:
  The redeployment of the USS Ford carrier from the Mediterranean to the Caribbean leaves the Mediterranean without carrier coverage—the first time in decades—raising concerns about the signal sent to allies.
• Internal and External Messaging:
  Hertling observes confusion inside the Pentagon and a disconnect between internal actions and external messaging—alarming to allies.
  • Quote:
    “There is confusion inside the Pentagon.” (Mark Hertling, 24:51)

5. Pentagon Transparency & Press Access (25:54–29:40)

• Breakdown in Communication:
  Kristol and Hertling bemoan the near-total absence of Pentagon press briefings since the summer, with little access for mainstream reporters.
  • Quote:
    “We get [information] from Pentagon press briefings and there hasn’t been one from Secretary Hegseth since mid July.” (Mark Hertling, 25:54)
• Black Box Operations:
  The ongoing strikes on drug boats in the Caribbean are highly publicized by the administration, but woefully unexplained, lacking any transparency about their purpose or strategy.
  • Quote:
    “There hasn’t a declared mission... the President is claiming one thing, but it seems to be doing another.” (Mark Hertling, 28:23)

6. Pentagon Leadership Turnover and Military Culture (29:40–33:57)

• Unprecedented Firings and Retirements:
  Kristol raises the extraordinary number (20+) of senior officers removed or forced out in less than a year—a break with civil-military norms.
  • Quote:
    “It really appears to me there are some pejorative approaches to getting people who are connected to past individuals that Trump or Hegseth didn’t like, or it’s on the basis of race or sex. There doesn’t seem to be an evaluation of the capability...” (Mark Hertling, 30:12)
• Erosion of “Truth to Power”:
  Hertling expresses sadness that top talent is being lost for political reasons, not performance, and warns that the value of “speaking truth to power” is being actively discouraged.
  • “Disagreement is not disrespect, but that’s what we’re used to doing... And when the military... are ignored, or if they’re cashiered because they’re connected to someone whose personality didn’t match with the President’s... it’s a waste of talent.” (Mark Hertling, 31:09)
• Norms of Civil-Military Relations:
  The generals and admirals, he emphasizes, are being stoic and silent—carrying out lawful orders even if they disagree, and not plotting any kind of extra-constitutional response.
• Admiral Hosley’s Resignation:
  Both are deeply troubled by such a senior officer resigning in protest.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Wars start pretty quickly, but they don’t end very well unless you’ve got a very good plan.” (Hertling, 09:04)
• "Those are really huge actions and they're going under the radar of most of our media..." (Hertling, 18:55)
• “Even though the Pentagon is saying they’re pulling forces out, there’s a new division headquarters that just arrived and they're going to be there at least nine months with 3,000 soldiers in four different countries.” (Hertling, 22:05)
• “There is confusion inside the Pentagon.” (Hertling, 24:51)
• “We get [information] from Pentagon press briefings and there hasn’t been one from Secretary Hegseth since mid July.” (Hertling, 25:54)
• “It really appears to me there are some pejorative approaches to getting people who are connected to past individuals that Trump or Hegseth didn’t like, or it’s on the basis of race or sex. There doesn’t seem to be an evaluation of the capability of these people who are being retired or asked to resign or leave their position.” (Hertling, 30:12)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:00 — Hertling’s book and reflections on military change
• 02:06 — Venezuela: Potential for war, comparisons and contingency plans explained
• 09:26 — The dangers of downplaying required military planning
• 12:18 — Tactical vs. strategic military action; possible implications
• 16:44 — Admiral Hosley’s resignation and chain of command worries
• 17:23 — Intelligence cut-offs and international blowback
• 20:14 — NATO/Eastern Flank force confusion and credibility
• 24:14 — The removal of USS Ford from the Mediterranean
• 25:54 — Pentagon blackout: Transparency and press issues
• 29:40 — Purge of senior Pentagon leadership and consequences
• 33:22 — Civil-military relations and Admiral Hosley’s resignation

Tone and Takeaways

Candid, experienced, and sober. Hertling brings a deeply informed yet alarmed perspective about the lack of strategy and dangerous ad hoc-ism in U.S. military decision-making. Kristol plays the role of informed, concerned citizen and moderator, seeking clarity for the public. Both voices stress the historic nature of both the Pentagon leadership turmoil and the shifting of U.S. strategic posture; they warn of serious consequences from confusion, lack of transparency, and the sidelining of experienced voices in the military.

This episode is crucial listening (or reading) for anyone wanting an honest, inside-baseball analysis of current U.S. military challenges and the risks of unmoored, poorly-communicated foreign policy.