Bulwark Takes – "Holy Cow! Trump’s Approval Sinks BELOW Biden’s Post-Debate Nadir"
Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Sam Stein (Managing Editor)
Guest: Sarah Longwell (Publisher)
Episode Overview
This fast-paced episode of Bulwark Takes spotlights the recent nosedive in Donald Trump’s approval ratings, with new polling showing him at a historic low—actually dipping below Joe Biden's worst numbers post-2024 debate. Sam Stein and Sarah Longwell break down the implications, zero in on the economy as the central vulnerability for Trump, and explore the underlying dynamics in public perception toward Democrats and Republicans as the 2025 elections approach. They also provide insights into the potency of the “threat to democracy” polling and discuss voter mood as bellwether state elections loom.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Trump’s Sinking Approval: Unusually Dire Territory
- CNN’s latest poll: Trump at 37% approval, 63% disapproval. This is close to his post-January 6th low (Pew had him at 29% then).
"CNN this morning had Trump's approval rating at 37%, disapproval rating at 63%. Now, this isn't as low as it gets for Trump because... he had a 29% approval rating at Pew. But that was like, yeah, you just committed an act of insurrection... 39% is pretty damn low historically." — Sam Stein [01:17]
- Historically, this is Trump’s lowest outside of acute crises.
- Sarah’s take: Even this is “not low enough”—she hopes for a Bush-2008 level (29%).
"It's still not low enough. We need him down in the 32%. That's where... my magic number." — Sarah Longwell [02:07]
- Noted: Trump’s base remains; only 8% of Republicans in some polls say he’s doing a bad job. The decline comes from independents, Hispanics, and young voters.
2. The Economy as Trump’s Achilles' Heel
- Historically, Trump has polled strongest on economic issues, but the numbers have flipped:
- WaPo/ABC: 62% disapproval of Trump’s economic handling—his worst ever in that poll.
- 59% blame Trump for inflation (vs. 50% who blamed Biden in 2022).
- CNN: 61% say Trump’s policies are actively worsening the economy.
"It’s not just that they... think he's doing a bad job on the economy. It's that they think he's actively making it worse." — Sam Stein [04:10]
- Direct effects: Small business owners, especially those affected by tariffs, are citing personal, negative impacts.
"Farmers... are very frustrated by the tariffs... small business owners all the time who talk about the tariffs... people who own or make or import things, the tariffs are hitting them hard." — Sarah Longwell [04:43]
- Voters are less forgiving/apathetic over time; patience is wearing thin as Trump fails to deliver on lowering prices.
3. Democrats: Perceived Weakness, But Winning the Generic Ballot
- Despite low favorability for Democrats—even worse than Republicans—they lead on the generic ballot (NBC had Dems +8).
"...positive perception of Republicans is much higher than... Democrats. This is because only 8% of Republicans say that Trump is doing a bad job. Where he's losing altitude... is with independents, with Hispanic voters, with younger voters..." — Sarah Longwell [06:25]
- Irony: Democrats’ poor internal favorability comes from their own voters—Democrats angry at their leadership for not being aggressive enough vs. Trump.
"The perception of Democrats... is so low... because Democrats are mad at Democrats." — Sarah Longwell [06:37] "They just want a Democratic Party that is more aggressive and... fighting. And until they do that, Democrats are going to continue to lag behind." — Sarah Longwell [08:25]
- Enthusiasm gap is smaller than during the “blue wave” years, but Democrats remain ahead.
4. Perceptions Around the Government Shutdown
- Stein is puzzled: Despite Democrats forcing a government shutdown over Obamacare subsidies, the public mostly blames Republicans and Trump.
"...if you look at these, these numbers about who's to blame for the shutdown time and again that people are blaming Trump and Republicans..." — Sam Stein [11:13]
- Sarah’s explanation: The party in power always gets the blame for dysfunction; people aren’t parsing the details.
"Republicans hold unified control of the government... people will blame the party in power when things start to go wrong." — Sarah Longwell [11:25]
5. The Waning Salience of Immigration
- Immigration, central to much of Trump’s platform, is only at 10% as a top issue in the CNN poll.
"...so much of Trump's focus... is around these ICE, deportation, border patrol raids... but it was such a critical part of his campaign that I'm Surprised to see it at 10%." — Sam Stein [13:17]
- This, Sarah argues, is because Trump largely “solved” it by closing the border, thus robbing himself of a campaign wedge.
"Trump's shut down the border.... And so when you solve a problem... people just start to care about it less..." — Sarah Longwell [14:09]
- Trump’s unwillingness to “declare victory” means he keeps pushing controversial policies, alienating some voters.
6. Polling on “Threats to Democracy” – Reading Between the Lines
- Democracy is the second-most cited national concern in the latest CNN survey (26%).
- Sarah is skeptical about how to interpret this: The “democracy” concern is polarized—even Republicans who thought Biden was a threat point to his age, not a tendency for authoritarianism.
"Democracy is very much in the eye of the beholder... Democrats think Republicans are a threat... But a lot of Republicans who believe that the 2020 election was rigged... believe Democrats are a threat..." — Sarah Longwell [15:45]
- For now, most “democracy” anxiety is from those worried about Trump’s disregard for norms.
7. Looking Ahead: Bellwether Elections and Interpreting the Generic Ballot
- Tomorrow’s key elections (Governor in NJ and VA) are seen as proxies for national moods; Sarah expects Democratic wins but cautions about reading too much into margins.
- Today’s D+8 generic ballot leads aren’t as lopsided as 2017 (then D+10 or D+11), but that’s partly due to improved polling of “quiet Trump voters.”
"A lot of the pollsters hadn't quite figured out then how to correctly wait for the quiet Trump voters... I think that correction will be there this time, too, despite... polling's not as high." — Sarah Longwell [18:15]
- Sarah expects a pro-Democratic correction, even if the generic ballot isn’t as “blue wave”-ish on paper.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On Trump’s Approval:
"I want people to take that in for a second, because... sometimes people think like, oh, how can people be tolerating this? Why isn't anything changing? I do want to emphasize a bunch of things that Trump is doing are deeply unpopular..." — Sarah Longwell [02:27]
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On Economic Pessimism:
"If you're seen as making the economy actively worse, that is a whole nother bag." — Sam Stein [04:35]
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On Democrats' Internal Strife:
"Democrats... are rating Democrats doing a bad job. And... because they don't think they're fighting Trump hard enough." — Sarah Longwell [06:49]
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On Voter Blame:
"People will blame the party in power when things start to go wrong. And so if... you want to get into the news and pull it apart... that's fine. ...But just broadly, for people who aren't paying a ton of attention, they're like, if stuff's going wrong, it's going wrong because the people who are in charge aren't doing something right." — Sarah Longwell [11:29]
Important Timestamps
- [01:00] Episode starts; Trump’s approval in CNN poll at new lows
- [02:07] Sarah: Trump’s “not low enough,” longing for Bush 29% days
- [03:51] Discussion on voters actively blaming Trump for worsening the economy
- [06:25] Democratic overperformance in generic ballot vs. their internal favorability
- [09:11] Shutdown politics and how Democrats are perceived as “finally fighting”
- [11:13] Dissecting public perceptions of shutdown blame
- [13:17] The fading potency of immigration as a campaign issue for Trump
- [15:27] Interpreting “threat to democracy” polling
- [17:10] Previewing tomorrow’s elections and expectations for Democratic performance
- [18:15] On changes in polling methodology post-2016/2017
- [19:05] Enthusiasm to vote: Democrats at 40%, Republicans at 42% (CNN poll)
Tone & Language
The conversation is candid, sharp, and data-driven, peppered with some exasperated humor. Both Sarah and Sam speak in plain terms, aiming to demystify the numbers and cut through DC “inside baseball.” Sarah is especially blunt about Democratic dissatisfaction and the fickleness of public blame.
Takeaways
- Trump is at a historic approval low, perilously close to his post-January 6th nadir, mostly due to economic discontent among swing voters.
- Economic issues are swamping everything, even immigration, and the electorate is increasingly blaming Trump personally for inflation and tariffs.
- Democratic leadership is not well-liked—even by their own base—but anger seems to drive turnout and generic ballot strength regardless.
- Perceptions of “threat to democracy” in polls are highly colored by partisan lenses and shouldn’t be over-interpreted.
- Upcoming state elections will provide signals about the durability of these trends, but the panel expects anti-Trump sentiment to assert itself, even if polls aren’t as blue as in past waves.
This summary provides a detailed but punchy walk-through for listeners wanting the headlines and underlying narrative from an especially dramatic week in American political polling.