Holy Smokes! THIS Is How You Do an Ad

Summary

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Bulwark Takes: "Holy Smokes! THIS Is How You Do an Ad"

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Hosts: Tim Miller & Co-host/Analyst
Date: September 3, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode spotlights a standout campaign ad from Paige Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton, PA, currently running for Congress. Tim Miller and a co-host break down why this ad exemplifies effective Democratic messaging in a crucial battleground district, highlighting the strategic elements that set it apart for the 2026 midterms. The hosts emphasize how Cognetti’s blend of populist appeal, anti-corruption stance (targeting both parties), and authentic personality addresses longstanding Democratic weaknesses with working-class voters.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why the Ad Stands Out (01:00–01:51)

• Ad-Season Context: With the midterms approaching, attention is on persuasive political ads.
• Cognetti’s Unique Positioning: Running as Scranton’s mayor against Republican Rob Bresnahan in a highly contested House race.
• Host’s Hype:

  “I think this is a good model for Democrats for a variety of reasons and so want to highlight it. You want to encourage good behavior.” – Co-host (01:10)

2. Populist Framing & Simple Messaging (01:51–03:20)

• Opening Tactic: Cognetti’s ad opens with humor and a populist message, immediately defining Bresnahan as an out-of-touch “rich kid” who betrayed local workers.
• Avoiding Academic Jargon: The hosts contrast Cognetti's style to recent ads that use complex terms like "oligarchy."

  “This is just a straight populist appeal. This dude is a rich kid… People get it. Nobody likes the Nepo baby taking over a business.” – Tim Miller (02:48)

3. Stock Trades as a Tangible Attack (03:24–04:44)

• Connecting Policy to Pocketbook: The ad details Bresnahan’s stock trades, tying them directly to votes against Medicaid and local interests.
• Making Corruption Relatable:

  “She ties in actual things that people care about that affect them, to the stock trade hit. Right? So he’s voting to cut Medicaid. Meanwhile, he’s still selling a stock for Medicaid providers. Beautifully done.” – Co-host (04:21)

4. Tone & Humor (03:53, 05:01)

• Memorable Visuals: The “secret helicopter” micro-scandal is delivered with a toy helicopter, injecting lightness that makes the attack stick.
• Out-of-Touch Opponent:

  “This dude is out there talking about how he’s worried about going broke when he’s running for Congress from fucking northeast Pennsylvania. And this isn’t a Connecticut district.” – Tim Miller (05:13)

5. Defining the Opponent, Then Herself (05:28–06:51)

• Full Frontal Assault: Cognetti spends the opening defining her opponent before pivoting to her reformer credentials.
• Anti-Corruption Across the Aisle: She highlights fighting corrupt Democrats, running as an independent, and cleaning up city government.
• Why This Works:

  “She’s doing everything right. She’s running against corrupt Democrats. Right. So using the phrase corrupt Democrats is really important here.” – Tim Miller (06:14)
  “This is not a partisan attack… I’m going after corrupt people of any party.” – Tim Miller (06:45)

6. The Model Democratic Candidate (07:06–08:35)

• Outsider Narrative: Cognetti’s bio and outsider stance fit what the hosts see as the necessary Democratic playbook.
• How to Move Forward:

  “The best thing that I can come up with is that the Democrats turn to somebody who has a credible brand as an outsider reformer who can come in and shake things up.” – Tim Miller (07:25)
  “That’s the whole rationale for running… I’m going to go after corruption no matter where it is.” – Co-host (07:57)

7. Policy Details & Personality (08:35–10:02)

• Giving Campaigns a Pulse: The ad touts cost-cutting, corruption busting, utility buyouts, and even building local parks, mixing substantive reform with relatable community improvements.
• Why Details Matter:

  “People care about costs, people care about reforms… then she just tosses in there: built cool parks.” – Tim Miller (08:48)
  “That creates a bond between you and the candidate that is different from… they’re gonna cut Medicaid. We get that. But give me a little personality.” – Tim Miller (09:34)

8. Connecting with Working People (10:33–12:13)

• Authenticity and Broad Appeal: Cognetti crafts a message about respect for hard work and local pride, explicitly connecting with non-college-educated and working-class voters where Democrats have struggled.
• Critical Analysis:

  “You have to combine the policy you’re putting forth with a vibe and an energy that says I’m putting you first.” – Tim Miller (11:26)
  “She is doing this not in a way that just appeals to one narrow slice… it is broadly appealing.” – Tim Miller (12:07)

9. Unique Bio, Replicable Blueprint (12:13–12:56)

• The “Cognetti Model”: While her background is rare, the core lesson is clear: Dems need more outsider, anti-corruption reformers who can credibly claim to be independent of party machines.
• Final Praise:

  “…what she’s doing right there is something that’s going to start to slowly move the Democrats back in the right direction and shout out to Paige and to the folks that are working on this campaign.” – Tim Miller (12:54)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Political Ad Messaging:

  “Nobody likes the Nepo baby taking over a business. For the millennials among us, this is a Tommy boy situation.” – Tim Miller (02:56)

• On Corruption:

  “I’m going after corrupt people of any party. And not only that, I did it. I ran as an independent against the Democratic establishment in Scranton. And you can’t draw up a bio better than this.” – Tim Miller (06:51)

• On Campaigning with Personality:

  “Like building cool parks. Do we want to build a whole ad campaign around that? Of course not… but give me a little personality.” – Tim Miller (09:34)

• On the Importance of ‘Trying’:

  “Trying is important in politics. Showing up is important.” – Co-host (11:07)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 01:00 – Introduction of Paige Cognetti's ad
• 01:51 – Populist, relatable opening attack
• 03:24 – Stock trading and personal enrichment as campaign issues
• 05:01 – Out-of-touch opponent lampooned
• 05:49 – Cognetti’s personal story and anti-machine credentials
• 08:35 – Governing accomplishments and “personality” elements
• 10:33 – Ad’s core theme: Respect for hard work and local values
• 12:45 – Can this model be replicated nationally?

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Conclusion

This episode offers a lively, insightful take on why Paige Cognetti’s congressional ad succeeds where so many Democratic efforts have faltered. By combining sharp attacks, authentic personal narrative, a demonstrable reform record, and an everywoman appeal, the ad gives Democrats a viable, repeatable strategy to reconnect with working-class voters. The Bulwark team doesn’t just dissect messaging—they model the energetic, plainspoken tone they praise.

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Transcript

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[Tim Miller]

Hey, everybody. Tim Miller from the Bulwark here. We are getting into politician ad season for the midterms, and I saw one this morning that really caught my eye.

[Co-host/Analyst]

I want to break it down for you.

[Tim Miller]

I think this is a good model.

[Co-host/Analyst]

For Democrats for a variety of reasons and so want to highlight it. You want to encourage good behavior. This is Paige Cognetti.

[Tim Miller]

She's running for Congress in northeastern Pennsylvania.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Running against a guy named Rob Bresnahan. So it's a highly competitive district. Really important race for the Democrats if they want to take back the House. She's the mayor of Scranton.

[Tim Miller]

I want to go through her ad because she's like, she's doing a lot.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Of the things that we've been begging for around here, the Bulwark.

[Tim Miller]

So we're going to watch it together. I'm going to point out what she's doing and why.

[Co-host/Analyst]

I think this is good positioning for a Democrat going against the MAGA Republicans right now.

[Ad Voiceover/Paige Cognetti (in ad clips)]

So let's watch Northeastern Pennsylvania nepa. For those who love it, our folk heroes are the workers. People here work hard and we stand tall. Our new congressman falls a bit short. Rob was handed the keys to a family fortune at 19. Workers here built that company. Rob sold it to foreign private equity.

[Tim Miller]

All right, So I like the short take at the start. All right, she's nagging him. I don't even think Rob Resam is short, so I think that makes the joke funnier for me. But what she leads with here is, I think, a populist appeal that is not Coded in some of these academic languages, like you sometimes hear when I.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Complained a little bit about the Grand Planter ad. The guy running for Maine Senate, which is a really good ad, but he's using oligarchy. He's using some of these words that are a little bit better suited for a classroom. This is just a straight populist appeal.

[Tim Miller]

This dude is a rich kid.

[Co-host/Analyst]

He took daddy's money, and instead of.

[Tim Miller]

Investing it back in the community, he.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Took investment money from people overseas.

[Tim Miller]

Simple. It's easy to understand. People get it. Nobody likes the Nepo baby taking over a business. For the millennials among us, this is a Tommy boy situation. Nobody wants Chris Farley taking over the.

[Co-host/Analyst]

And Boston around the people actually doing the real work. All right, I think that was in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The parallel. Parallel works for me at least.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, this is a good start. It's a two minute ad. Stick with us.

[Co-host/Analyst]

We're gonna keep going.

[Ad Voiceover/Paige Cognetti (in ad clips)]

Rob ran for Congress on a promise to ban stock trades this year. He's already made 600 trades. 600. Sold Chinese stocks the week of a tariff. Buys missile stocks before a war. Buys jet stocks before a big contract. Oversees crypto. Buys crypto stocks before a vote. Said he wouldn't cut Medicaid. Cut Medicaid for over 25,000. DOL of our neighbors sold Medicaid provider stocks just before the vote, profiting off of Pennsylvania's loss. So people keep asking Rob a congressman worth around 50 million with a secret helicopter.

[Tim Miller]

I love the secret helicopter bit with the toy helicopter. It's funny, it makes me laugh. But here is. I think sometimes this, like, banning stock trade attack is a little bit, I don't know, sometimes it feels like a little bit hollow for me.

[Co-host/Analyst]

It doesn't actually connect with why people should care about that in a real way.

[Tim Miller]

She does this, I think, masterfully in this ad, right? She ties in actual things that people.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Care about that affect them to the stock trade hit. Right? So he's cutting that. He's voting to cut Medicaid. Meanwhile, he's still selling a stock for Medicaid providers. Beautifully done. You know, you get into the China.

[Tim Miller]

Issue, you get into crypto in some of these other issues where this guy.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Is trading on stocks, he's making money. We've already established he's a Nepo baby.

[Tim Miller]

He's going to Congress, and he cares.

[Co-host/Analyst]

About making money for himself. He's not caring about bringing the money back to the district. This is a pure populist appeal that is merited. And I think that really is right for the moment. There's a little bit more on this.

[Ad Voiceover/Paige Cognetti (in ad clips)]

To stop trading stocks and focus on the people. Rob protests saying, what am I going to do?

[Tim Miller]

Just leave it there and lose money and go broke?

[Ad Voiceover/Paige Cognetti (in ad clips)]

My story, it's a little different.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Boom.

[Tim Miller]

And the fact that this dude. This dude is out there talking about.

[Co-host/Analyst]

How he's worried about going broke when.

[Tim Miller]

He'S running for Congress from fucking northeast Pennsylvania. And this isn't a Connecticut district. Like, this isn't a good. And this is. He put this on a tee for her. So I think she sets the table here very nicely. Like the ad begins, the first bit of the ad is a full frontal.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Assault on her opponent.

[Tim Miller]

We live in a time of negative polarization.

[Co-host/Analyst]

It is important to define your opponent. She does so masterfully.

[Tim Miller]

But the contrast with her campaign and with what she's bringing to the table and what she's offering is why I.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Like this ad so much better than some of the others that we've seen in this vintage. So let's learn a little bit more about Paige.

[Ad Voiceover/Paige Cognetti (in ad clips)]

I met my husband at his small business. We're raising our family here, and we're proud to call NEPA home. When our mayor went to prison for corruption, the Democratic machine thought they could put in another crony. So I took on the powerful and corrupt Democrats and ran for mayor as an independent. It's a simple idea. The government should work as hard as the people it serves. They called it Page against the machine.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Okay, I'm getting a little hot and bothered over here.

[Tim Miller]

This is what we're talking about. She's doing everything right. She's running against corrupt Democrats. Right. So using the phrase corrupt Democrats is really important here, okay? Because maybe some viewers of this, you know, think Democrats do everything. Well, most people don't. You just look at the poll numbers. Right now, the Democratic Party brand is in the shitter. And so what she does here is establish her credibility.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Right?

[Tim Miller]

This is not a partisan attack. I'm not just going after this Nepo.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Baby who's lining his own pockets because he's a Republican and I'm a Democrat, and that's the only reason I'm doing it.

[Tim Miller]

No, she's establishing. I'm going after anybody that wants to.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Line their pockets at your expense.

[Tim Miller]

I'm going after corrupt people of any party. And not only that, I did it. I ran as an independent against the Democratic establishment in Scranton. And you can't draw up a bio better than this.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Like, if I created an imaginary bio of a Democrat. This is what I would want, and.

[Tim Miller]

I swear I think I was talking.

[Co-host/Analyst]

To JVL about this yesterday and like.

[Tim Miller]

What is the path out of this? And like the best thing that I.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Can come up with is that the.

[Tim Miller]

Democrats turn to somebody who has a.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Credible brand as an outsider reformer who can come in and shake things up.

[Tim Miller]

Because that way then the long term.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Reforms that are going to be needed.

[Tim Miller]

In this country are positioned not just as like, oh, Democrats get back into Republicans and then fucking JD Vance or somewhat loser comes back in and he.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Does the same thing, right?

[Tim Miller]

Instead of that permanent war, you change the paradigm. And to do that you need a candidate.

[Co-host/Analyst]

That reflects that in their bio. That's whole rationale for running is I'm going to go after corruption no matter where it is.

[Tim Miller]

That gives them the freedom to go.

[Co-host/Analyst]

After the Republicans as aggressively and maniacally as they want. Okay.

[Tim Miller]

They can do the real swamp draining.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Shit that is gonna be needed. Okay.

[Tim Miller]

So anyway, I'm not so excited about.

[Co-host/Analyst]

This that I'm nominating Paige Cognetti, mayor.

[Tim Miller]

Of Scranton for president in 2028. But I'm saying this is the model.

[Co-host/Analyst]

For the type of Democrats the Democrats should be recruiting everywhere. It's brilliant, beautifully done. There's more. Let's keep watching.

[Ad Voiceover/Paige Cognetti (in ad clips)]

As mayor, we did things differently. We lowered costs, cleaned out the corruption, managed the finances, bought the utility companies, build cool parks.

[Tim Miller]

This is something that Democrats might be afraid to talk about. You know, she's doing these pocketbook issues stuff, right?

[Co-host/Analyst]

Which is.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Which is what you want to do.

[Tim Miller]

You know, people care about costs, people care about reforms.

[Co-host/Analyst]

And then she just tosses in there built cool parks.

[Tim Miller]

Like I think this is. These things are understated. A lot of times these fucking ads, like, it just becomes like the peanuts parents.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Wah, wah, wah, wah, wah.

[Tim Miller]

Like a lot of these topics are the same.

[Co-host/Analyst]

It's like they want to cut Medicaid.

[Tim Miller]

I don't like all those are important issues. The issues things that poll well are important issues. But you have to have your own personality. You have to demonstrate that there are things that you care about as an individual, as a candidate that you want to bring to the people to make their life better. Like building cool parks. Do we want to build a whole ad campaign around that?

[Co-host/Analyst]

Of course not. Right.

[Tim Miller]

Is that going to be the difference between her winning and not?

[Co-host/Analyst]

No, probably not.

[Tim Miller]

But what it does, it's like, hey, if you live in this district and you noticed that there's some cool new parks, some cool new playgrounds around, you can take your kids or Grandkids to. I worked on that. That's just, that's a little something that like creates a bond between you and the candidate that is different from, you know, we, they're gonna, they're gonna cut Medicaid. They want to. We, they're gonna cut taxes for the rich. We get that. People should talk about that too. But, but give me a little, give me a little personality.

[Co-host/Analyst]

I thought that was good how they just ducked that right in there. Back to the ad. We got a little bit more, built.

[Ad Voiceover/Paige Cognetti (in ad clips)]

Nearly a thousand more homes and welcomed new businesses. So everyone here has a shot at the American dream. We listened. Rob isn't brave enough to hold a single real town hall. I've held dozens in Trump country. We built a government for everyone. Rob says Scranton is not what we are. Well, Rob, I say day trading away the public trust is not who we are. So yeah, I'm running for Congress because people here deserve a lot better than a rich people disrespecting our hard work and proud legacy.

[Tim Miller]

I love that we end that.

[Co-host/Analyst]

People deserve better than a rich kid disrespecting hard work.

[Tim Miller]

It's good. You have to look, the Democrats are.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Struggling with working people.

[Tim Miller]

It's not going to get fixed with one ad.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Right?

[Tim Miller]

Like their numbers are going down across.

[Co-host/Analyst]

All demographics with folks that don't have a college degree that have working lower middle class jobs.

[Tim Miller]

You have to explicitly explain that you care about them. You have to show that this is something that you're going to prioritize. You have to try to try.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Trying is important in politics. Showing up is important.

[Tim Miller]

I think that if you look back.

[Co-host/Analyst]

At the campaign in 24, I think.

[Tim Miller]

That there was a sense that there wasn't enough effort there. Sure, there was white papers, there was lip service paid to it. It's not as if they didn't mention.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Issues for working class people.

[Tim Miller]

But you have to kind of combine the policy that you're putting forth with a vibe and an energy that says I'm putting you first.

[Co-host/Analyst]

I care about you the most. You are my special child.

[Tim Miller]

Maybe that is infantilizing a little bit, but that's just life.

[Co-host/Analyst]

That's politics.

[Tim Miller]

You have to brand yourself express explicitly this way. She is doing this and she is doing this not in a way that just appeals to one narrow slice like.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Working class lefties or working class union folks or you know, people that are more in the center and you know, care about working class issues but have different views on cultural issues.

[Tim Miller]

Right. Like this is, this ad could be for any of those people, right? Like it is broadly appealing.

[Co-host/Analyst]

It is showing that she cares about working class issues and working class concerns. She's not doing it in a way that can paint her into some corner ideologically or make her seem like she's out of step with some demographic or another. It is extremely well done. Her bio really helps, right? You can't find in every single district somebody that ran as an independent for mayor against a corrupt Democratic establishment. If there are other mayors like that out there, you should go recruit them. But.

[Tim Miller]

She has obviously a unique bio.

[Co-host/Analyst]

That is going to make this something that really works for her. You can't totally replicate it, but the.

[Tim Miller]

Concept is right here. And I think that what she's doing.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Right there is something that's going to start to slowly move the Democrats back in the right direction and shout out to Paige and to the folks that are working on this campaign.

[Tim Miller]

So that's that. We'll keep you posted. People like to adwatch during the 2024 campaign it feels a little early to be doing adwaunch September 2nd. You know, we got 14 more months till the next election. But when I see stuff that really.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Catches my eye, good or bad, we'll do my best to bring it to you all and make sure to subscribe to the feed. Tell us what you think in the comments and we'll be seeing you soon.

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