How Trump’s Treasury Secretary Crashed His Own Hedge Fund (w/ Marshall Brandt)

Summary

Bulwark Takes: How Trump’s Treasury Secretary Crashed His Own Hedge Fund

Host: Tim Miller (The Bulwark)
Guest: Marshall Brandt (Annapurna Funds, appearing in a personal capacity)
Release Date: September 9, 2025

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Episode Overview

Main Theme:
The episode dives into the checkered Wall Street history of Scott Bessant, Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary, focusing on his disastrous hedge fund management, his public claims versus actual track record, and what this means for the broader economy under the current administration. The team also discusses recent news stories about Bessant's behavior and the nature of economic policy under Trump's second term.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Scott Bessant’s Hedge Fund Track Record

[02:00 – 04:10]

• Marshall Brandt explains that both he and Bessant came from global macro trading backgrounds.
• Bessant launched a $4.5 billion hedge fund after working under giants like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller.
  • "He started with 4.5 billion of assets under management. He shut down the fund with 577 million. So he lost 90% of his capital." — Marshall Brandt [03:31]
• Despite the pedigree, Bessant’s fund:
  • Was down 50% of the years it operated
  • Violated the Soros/Druckenmiller “never lose money” rule
  • Ended with a catastrophic loss of client capital

2. The Myth vs. Reality of Bessant's Wall Street Acumen

[04:10 – 06:00]

• Bessant boasts about “trading against Goldman Sachs,” claiming victories over the renowned investment bank.
• Tim Miller points out the disconnect:
  • Bessant claims tariffs are not inflationary, contradicting both mainstream analysis and his own former investor letters.
  • "His evidence for [tariffs' effectiveness], he doesn't have any. Except for the fact that he says Goldman Sachs has been wrong a lot and he made money on them in the past. That seems like bullshit to me." — Tim Miller [04:57]
• Brandt reveals direct contradiction:
  • "We’ve got an investor letter of his where he talks about how tariffs are going to be incredibly inflationary. He actually bet on that when he was running a hedge fund." — Marshall Brandt [05:18]

3. Authoritarian Economic Playbook and the ‘Sugar Rush’ Market

[06:25 – 09:15]

• Brandt draws historical parallels with Turkey, Hungary, and even Nazi Germany:
  • Initial years after a democracy slides toward autocracy often see stock market booms.
  • "In the United States, we've seen the same thing. Your stocks... are not up in dollar adjusted terms, inflation adjusted terms." — Marshall Brandt [07:26]
• The market’s resilience is due to a handful of dominant tech companies and foreign investment, not underlying strength or policy wisdom.
• "There could be a period that we’re headed into with the non-independent Fed where the stock market just goes vertical... but we know what happens when that happens, and that's inflation." — Brandt [08:15]

4. Protection of “Big Tech,” Red Tape, and the Hyundai Plant Fiasco

[09:15 – 13:50]

• Miller argues Trump remains friendly with the S&P 10 and AI companies, which buoy markets.
• Brandt points to state interference in business, e.g., the immigration raid on Hyundai’s South Korean workers in Georgia.
  • The president’s response mimicked Chinese “technology transfer” demands.
  • "It's fine they come work here, but they gotta teach our workers how to do it." — Scott Bessant, as quoted by Brandt [13:51]
  • "That's verbatim technology transfer. So yeah..." — Brandt [13:56]
• These actions, Brandt says, chill foreign investment and undermine international trust.

5. Trump Administration’s Trade “Negotiations”

[13:55 – 15:00]

• Trade deals resemble unbalanced, “self-imposed taxes,” with little prospect for real international investment or benefit.
• Brandt remains bearish on the long-term US outlook, despite short-term asset inflation:
  • "Is my outlook bullish for the United States economy? No. Deployment figures are bad, tariffs are bad, etc. But you're fighting the tape right now..." — Brandt [14:31]

6. “Elite” MAGA Culture and Cocktail Party Clashes

[16:11 – 19:11]

• Discussion turns to reports of Bessant nearly getting in a fight at a DC “executive club”—contradicting MAGA’s anti-elite branding.
  • The club’s co-owner is linked to Donald Trump Jr. and various failing SPAC investments (“Grab a Gun” down 50%).
  • "The co owner is involved with Donald Jr. in a SPAC... The company they decided to buy was called Grab a Gun." — Brandt [17:48]
• Bessant’s outburst—“You made me look bad in front of the Dear Leader”—suggests a high degree of insecurity and courtier culture in the administration.
  • "He was good when he had somebody looking over his shoulders... But now... he's mad because he's made to look bad in front of the president." — Brandt [18:49]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "I don't see any way to view him as anything but a failed hedge fund manager." — Marshall Brandt [03:35]
• "Goldman Sachs's stock today is trading at an all time high... I think that's a weird flex to make." — Brandt [05:08]
• "Who didn't have a Great Depression?... Germany. Nazi Germany. Now the stock market went to zero. But... the first few years are pretty good." — Brandt [06:44]
• "It's kind of sad that Korea and Brazil are the advanced democracies that figured out how to handle their coups better than us." — Tim Miller [10:33]
• "He lives in a Barbie house, though, on the other hand." — Tim Miller [15:32]
• "This whole thing sounds kind of crazy, because it is." — Brandt on MAGA “executive clubs” and SPACs [17:13]

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Important Timestamps

• [00:31] Intro of Tim Miller and Marshall Brandt, overview of topic
• [02:00 – 04:10] Bessant’s failed hedge fund history
• [04:10 – 06:00] Fact-check on Bessant’s claims and market wisdom
• [06:25 – 09:15] Authoritarian economics and market parallels
• [13:10 – 13:50] Hyundai plant raid and “technology transfer”
• [16:11 – 17:50] Inside DC elite, “grift clubs,” and the MAGA inner circle
• [18:49] The “Dear Leader” incident and crony insecurity

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Tone & Language

This episode is direct, irreverent, and openly skeptical of both Bessant’s self-promotion and the administration’s approach. The speakers use humor, cutting analogies, and insider knowledge to puncture official narratives.

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Conclusion

If you missed the episode, here’s the big takeaway:
Scott Bessant, Trump’s Treasury Secretary, misrepresented his Wall Street bona fides—his hedge fund was an epic flop. The US markets’ current buoyancy has little to do with sound management and more with global capital chasing mega-cap tech firms. Under the surface, erratic trade policy, questionable “law and order” actions, and authoritarian political drift threaten longer-term stability, even as the administration cements itself as more “court intrigue” than competent governance.

To get more in-depth, punchy news analysis, check out Bulwark plus and subscribe to the feed!

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Been wanting to build, sell something you've created, run your community, manage your business, or launch your next idea. Now imagine it's live before Today's over. Meet base 44, the fastest way to turn any idea into a fully functional app. No code, no waiting. Just describe what you want and watch it come together, Backend design, and all in minutes. A real product ready to share. From idea to live app fast start building [e-mail] hey, everybody. Tim Miller from the Bulwark here with my buddy Marshall Brandt of Annapurna Funds. And we've been talking for a while, me and Marshall have, about how Scott Besant, our Treasury Secretary, who kind of purports to be the most accomplished, I guess, or mainstream of this cast of clowns. Like his actual track record as an investor is pretty shitty. And I felt like on this day, on the heels of a story from Politico about how he like almost threw down in a, in a Georgetown club and how he wanted to demonstrate some fists of fury against Bill Pulte. And following the interview with Meet the Press where he bragged on his career as a hedge fund manager, that we might get some benefit from Marshall's expertise. So thank you for coming on.

[A]

Yeah, absolutely. Just first from, from our compliance department, I'm appearing as an individual. This don't represent the opinions of Anacorta funds. Not investment advice, we're not open to the public, all that kind of good stuff.

[B]

No investment advice. Okay, maybe he's made some non investment advice or some people to stay away from. Potentially, you know, potentially. Take it as you wish, though. Take it as you wish, everybody. All right. Well, just as a little backstory, you know, you're talking about your work. You had some familiarity with Besant, I guess, before he was Treasury Secretary. Is that.

[A]

Yeah, we're in the same world. We both trade global macro. I mean, that's what he, he traded and he had a pretty good run. And he's, he's, he's very reminiscent of a lot of Guys, I mean, trading gold macro is very difficult.

[B]

What does that mean? Talk to me like a child global macro.

[A]

Yeah, sure. So we trade currencies, commodities, anything under the sun. But you know, I mean, it's not everyone who can establish a position. The Thai bot, for example. And you know, anyone could sort of set up a hedge fund and passively index the S and P. But you make these really big bets on rates, fixed income, inflation. And you know, he worked for some of the best. Soros is probably the best of all times. Maybe Druckenmiller is second. He worked under those two guys and he has the same profile that I've seen a lot in fund management where you know, you're good PM and you get spun out with your own fund. And he launched like $4.5 billion. I feel for the guy a little bit. I mean, I don't know how exactly, you know, you put $4.5 billion to work on a Thursday, but he was down 50% of the time he was there. And the golden rule from Soros and Druckenmiller, his mentors, was you never lose money. I mean, at least you can put it in 10 year treasuries. So 50% of his years were down. And I mean, I don't see any way to view him as anything but a failed hedge fund manager. So he started with 4.5 billion of assets under management. He shut down the fund with 577 million. So he lost 90% of his capital.

[B]

That's, that's down. Now, I'm not that great at math, but 4.5 billion to 577 million, that seems like if that happened to our economy, for example, now he's a treasury secretary, that would that yield a lot of pain.

[A]

A lot of pain. A lot of pain. And it's interesting because he's sort of touted as the guy to calm Wall street that the Dear leader is not going to ruin everything, right? Yeah, but there's not a lot of evidence he was so good on Wall Street.

[B]

Let's, let's take a listen to what Besson said about himself and his investment career yesterday as referenced and explored a little bit more.

[A]

You're quoting Goldman Sachs. Yes, Goldman Sachs.

[B]

Yeah, I made, which I said, yeah, I made a good career trading against Goldman Sachs. Okay, so he made a lot of money betting against Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs out there taking this radical view that the tariffs are actually being paid by American companies and consumers almost entirely, which is just totally conventional wisdom. I mean, you can tell me if There is any reason to not think that is the case for people that, that put their, you know, money where their mouth is, so to speak, on these sorts of bets. Bethen is saying he's going against that, saying that he does not think that the consumers or companies are paying for it. And his evidence for that, he doesn't have any. Except for the fact that he says Goldman Sachs has been wrong a lot and he made money on them in the past. That seems like bullshit to me.

[A]

Goldman Sachs looking stock today is trading an all time high. They're considered the world's leading thought leaders and investment space. I mean, I think that's a weird flex to make in the first place. I mean you might want to say something like I really believe in this terror phenomenon. But we actually, we know he doesn't. We've got an investor letter of his where he talks about how tariffs are going to be incredibly inflationary. I mean he actually bet on that when he was running a hedge fund that tariffs would be inflationary. So I don't even know what he's talking about on that one.

[B]

Yeah, I guess the question is, when you look at somebody like that, do we think that he is just desperate for this position, wants to have it and was excited to get it, obviously competed with Nutlik and others for it and got it. And maybe he's figuring, I don't know, maybe the Supremes will bail me out on this and they'll like overturn the tariffs and I'll be able to kind of have an excuse for why this didn't happen and that way I won't get crossways with Mr. Trump or like, do you feel like, is there, is there a cohort of people that are true believers that this is a good economic program right now? Like, what do you think?

[A]

Not, not that I'm aware of. But I mean, I think one of the big questions we've been asking ourselves, everyone's been asking ourselves, is why is the market holding up like this? I mean, just beyond bessant, the questioning of the independence of the Fed. And the answer is that, you know, if you go back and look at history, when governments transform themselves from democracies to autocracies, the first few years are pretty good. When you go from a completely free market capitalist system that we had on January 19 to a hybrid state capitalist model, the equity turns were pretty good. Who didn't have a Great Depression? I mean, I hate to get this dark, but who didn't have a Great Depression? Germany. Nazi Germany. Now the stock market went to zero. But I think that you look at Turkey for example, it's up 5x. The stock market is up 5x since the pandemic, but the inflation rate is 32%, the interest rates are 44% and the currency's down by 90%. And in the United States, we've seen the same thing. Your stocks, if you're just indexed in the S and P this year, are not up in dollar adjusted terms, inflation adjusted terms. In fact, the S and P is up exactly as of the close of today, is up exactly year to date with the dollar's down. So you have three basic choices in investing. Currencies put in cash equities and bonds. And so I think this, this, this market is going to experience much what Turkey did and Hungary did when it comes to there was initial sugar rush and it's been sort of downhill ever since. Now I don't want to people to run out and sell everything based on that, but there could be a period that we're headed into with the non independent Fed where the stock market just goes vertical because the interest rates are so low. But we know what happens when that happens and that's inflation.

[B]

That all makes sense. I'm wondering if what you think about this and you're like kind of monitoring all this stuff closer to me. So it's maybe just made my impressions are inaccurate. I don't know. Trump has been at least extremely solicitous and like decently good to, you know, a lot of the biggest, you know, the S&P10 companies, right. I think you have all these big tech companies that are there at the White House. They all are sitting on a huge balance sheets, right. Like they're all doing well. Trump's not targeting them. There's no reason to think that they have like deep threats. And then you throw in the AI companies on top of that. And like the one area, maybe the, the three areas of this administration is like actually focused on cutting red tape and making sure investment goes into that as AI crypto and private prisons. Right. So if you have the AI companies and the S&P10. Right. Like maybe isn't that bringing everybody up? Right. You know what I mean? Is that maybe possible?

[A]

Yeah, of course. And there's no doubt that across the world, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds abroad, investors abroad, there's a deep belief that America has these 10 companies that none of the rest of the world can replicate. And no amount of authoritarian creep in the United States government is going to take away potentially at least for now. With the profitability of Microsoft and Nvidia and all that other kind of stuff. But I got to say, when you got the atf who I guess didn't couldn't find enough alcohol, Tobacco and firearms to bust going down to busing a Korean plant in Georgia and hauling off their workers. We're trying to do a trade deal with Korea. We've had a trade deal in place with Korea. Korea. By the way, here's the lesson from Korea. They had a January 6th for president. They had a guy who declared martial law last December. They tried him, they put him in jail and guess how much their stock market is up this year? Like 40%. So they actually went through with getting rid of their problem person and then the best performing stock market in the world.

[B]

Yeah, the only reason I know about that is because this is a Bannon obsessive Bannon loved the January Sixer guy in Korea so he would like mention all the time on the podcast.

[A]

He's going to jail for a really long time.

[B]

And it's kind of sad that the Korea and Brazil are the advanced democracies that figured out how to handle their coups better than us.

[C]

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[B]

People because I don't think I've mentioned this actually on the pod. It's been a big story. I just haven't gotten to it. That what you're referencing. There were 300 South Korean workers detained following an immigration raid at a Hyundai plant in Georgia. They're going to be released and brought home. The South Korean government announced Sunday. So this is such a crazy story again when you talk about why business owners should be chilled in a lot of different industries. It's like they were trying to build a plant here that was going to hire American workers. That was the fucking point. It was going to be American workers in Georgia working at this plant. They're building it. And now we've had this raid and who the hell knows, maybe it'll just sit there for a little while.

[A]

The icing on the cake is that the president insinuated technology transfer. What do we hate about China and the way they do business with our companies? Technology transfer. You can come do business with us, but we must be able to steal the technology that you're using.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And so the president's response, a quote of his was, it's fine they come work here, but they gotta teach our workers how to do it.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Which is exactly what you would hear from G. China.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I mean it's verbatim technology transfer. So yeah. And then these, these so called trade agreements where you've got, I mean basically I have to wonder what they look like because you got Bess in The room sitting there going, we're going to self impose a tax on your goods. Are you okay with that? I mean, there's no, there's no negotiation. And they, they say we'll invest $500 billion like the Japanese or whatever. That's a third of their gdp. They're never going to do that. Yeah, they're never going to do that, particularly not after, you know, the ATF has time to put all of their workers in jail. And so, I mean, is my outlook bullish for the United States economy? No. I mean, deployment figures are bad, tariffs are bad, etc. But, but you're fighting the tape right now if you're trying to short the United States. And, and I think that's because we are heading into that first, you know, inaugural phase, call it one to two years, where these authoritarian governments do really well.

[B]

Right. Well, we'll see what the, what the viewers and listeners think about this. I was going to ask you about Howard Nutlik, but I want to get feedback on our Scott Bessant analysis and then we'll let you get prepared. And looking at the track record of him and his children that have now taken over his company or how. But now I guess kind of betting against the tariffs a little bit. Last thing on Bessant anything. Do you feel like you could take him, you know, if he watches this video and he starts threatening you in a, you know, he's pretty cool. Take him.

[A]

Yeah, I was at a cocktail thing with him one time. He's pretty tall.

[B]

He lives in a Barbie house, though, on the other hand.

[A]

Yeah, that's true. That's true as well. By the way, have you seen his spouse with him ever? I haven't yet.

[B]

I, I think they were there at the, at the confirmation because he's got those two older kids too. I, I believe I'm, I'm going from memory. I believe they were around the husband and kids at, at the confirmation hearing, but not, not lately. Haven't seen him really.

[A]

Not like Pete and.

[B]

No, no, you don't see a lot of Shaston FaceTime or like some of the other cabinet spouses, like Pete Hegseth's wife, third wife. I think she has portraits of her now up in the Department of War. I almost said Department Defense, Department of War if her portrait is up. So anyway. All right.

[A]

Wasn't so scary. Be hilarious, right? I mean the thing you're about to talk about, the fight in the bar. Owned by, half owned by.

[B]

Yeah, let's talk about this. So they're at this. They're at this club. All right, this will be our final topic because you have good insight on this. They're at this club. Ostensibly, all the MAGA guys were like, you know, oh, these elites in dc, they don't care about you. They just want to go to their Georgetown cocktail parties. They get in and now the first thing they do is they want to throw Georgetown cocktail parties of their own. So they have some club now that's owned by you. Explain it. Are they foreigners? Are they?

[A]

Yeah, no, the guys. I mean, he was born in Pakistan, I believe, but just looking at his Wikipedia, I mean, he is. Did you deep dive? Don't know the guy.

[B]

Yeah, sure.

[A]

He was involved in a spac, which is one of these special acquisition companies, very in vogue. Chamath Palapitiya. The guy from all in podcast did three of them. Most of them lost 90% or 100% of their value.

[B]

I invested in one of those ones that lost a bunch of value. I should have been listening to you, not your moth back then. But, you know, I was bored as Covid. I just kind of was trying to catch the wave.

[A]

A lot of people made silly money on these things, but they didn't fare so well. But. But the co owner of this grift club, it's called the executive club, where you can buy access for half a million dollars to this administration. The co owner is involved with Donald Jr. In a SPAC. Then when you have a spac, you just get this blank check. Whole thing sounds kind of crazy because it is. You get this blank check and you gotta go find a company, but you can't announce the company that you tend to buy. You have to go find the company or send the money back. And the company they decided to buy was called Grab a Gun.

[B]

Grab a Gun.

[A]

Grab a Gun, Yeah. A online seller of firearms. And that's who's joint owner of this. This club. And he's the one who apparently had to calm big Scott down when he got in the fight with the sort of RFK junior Of the Pulte family. The Pulte. I mean, the Pulte family is pretty upstanding group of individuals. They've got an incredible home building company, but the sort of black. You know, the RFK junior, that family is Bill Pulte. P.S. can you name any previous Federal Housing Authority guy?

[B]

No, no, cannot.

[A]

No, no.

[B]

For good reason.

[A]

In this administration. How people who, you know, you could never even knew the function of what they were doing or playing such sort of a big role. But I think it's really key. What was the source of the fight? You made me look bad in front of the Dear Leader.

[B]

Yeah, right.

[A]

You know, and that goes back to when he was hedge fund guy. He was good when he had somebody looking over his shoulders. Besson was. But now that he's working for someone else or whatever, he's mad because he's made to look bad in front of the president. And I think it gives you amazing insight into how his administration functions.

[B]

Yeah. And his insecurity. So just. Just curious since, you know, you've maybe analyzed it, how's that. How's the grab a gun spec going that Donald Trump and that guy invested in?

[A]

It's down 50%, so.

[B]

50%. So better than Besants investment.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

All right. Well, anyway, for folks who don't remember, we'll just put this back up on screen. What this was all started when you sent me this graph here from Convergence Inc. Looking at Besants asset under management, and it goes.

[A]

Straight down. And as a hedge fund manager, typically only people withdraw money when you're not doing well.

[B]

Hopefully that's not the way our economy goes. Marshall, thank you so much, man, for doing this. Annapurna Funds.

[A]

By the way, I want to let you know, you were the second podcast I ever listened to.

[B]

The second one you ever listened to.

[A]

Ever listen to. I skipped the whole podcast thing. I never.

[B]

Well, it's the first one who beat me, so.

[A]

It was James Caldwell's podcast. I listened to one episode, and they're like. He was like, y' all want to listen to somebody who's me. Me go to the Bulwark. And this is in Covid in 2020. And that's how I found you guys. And I've been a Bulwark plus member ever since. And, And. And. And would encourage anyone to sign up for it.

[B]

We appreciate that very much. Look at this. A successful investor wants you to become a Bulk plus Bullock plus member. So do that. Subscribe to the feed. We'll see y' all soon. Peace.