Huge Blow to Elon as Liberal Wins Big in Swing State Supreme Court Race

Summary

Bulwark Takes: Huge Blow to Elon as Liberal Wins Big in Swing State Supreme Court Race

Release Date: April 2, 2025

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, the team delves into the significant developments from the recent Wisconsin Supreme Court election and a closely watched special election in Florida. Hosts Lauren Egan and Will Saletan, alongside JVL, provide in-depth analysis of the outcomes, their implications for major political players like Elon Musk and Donald Trump, and the broader impact on the American political landscape.

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1. Wisconsin Supreme Court Election: A Critical Victory for Democrats

The Wisconsin Supreme Court race garnered national attention, particularly due to Elon Musk's heavy involvement. The election saw Democrat Susan Crawford defeat Republican Brad Schmell, a result described by Elon Musk himself as pivotal to the "fate of Western civilization" [00:00].

Key Points:

• Close Contest: The race was unexpectedly tight, with preliminary counts suggesting Crawford might win by five to seven points [01:08].
• Elon Musk's Influence: Musk's extensive campaigning, including distributing substantial monetary incentives to voters, aimed to sway the election in favor of Republican candidates but ultimately did not secure the desired outcome [01:15].

Notable Quotes:

• JVL [00:00]: “This is a place where Republicans threw in everything plus the kitchen sink. Elon Musk has been barnstorming, handing out giant Publishers Clearinghouse size checks.”
• Lauren Egan [02:10]: “These aren't good signs for [Republicans].”

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2. Florida Special Election: A Monumental Swing Against Republicans

The special election in Florida presented a stark contrast to previous Republican dominance, showcasing a significant swing towards Democratic candidates.

Key Points:

• Massive Shift: The district, previously held by Trump with a 30-point advantage, saw a dramatic shift with Democrats gaining a substantial margin [00:55].
• Impact on Republican Strategy: Such a swing indicates that districts with a Republican margin of plus 7 to plus 10 are now within reach for Democrats [02:10].

Notable Quotes:

• Will Saletan [05:01]: “The Gates one's even more like 35 or more. They end up being about 15 points each.”

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3. Republican Response and Leadership Concerns

The unexpected results have left the Republican leadership in a precarious position, questioning their strategies and potential need for course correction.

Key Points:

• Leadership Anxiety: Republican leaders are reportedly anxious about these losses, contemplating changes to avoid further setbacks in upcoming midterm elections [02:10].
• Elise Stefanik's Position: The results underscore why Representative Elise Stefanik remains steadfast in her role, emphasizing the vulnerability of swing districts [03:43].

Notable Quotes:

• Lauren Egan [02:10]: “Democrats can play in just about any congressional seat where Trump was plus 7, maybe even plus 10. That's in play now.”
• JVL [03:43]: “These results suggest that Elise Stefanik is not leaving her job, right?”

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4. Elon Musk's Dual-Edged Influence

Elon Musk's involvement in the Wisconsin race serves as a case study in the complex interplay between financial power and personal branding in politics.

Key Points:

• Financial Investment: Musk poured over $20 million into the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, aiming to influence judicial outcomes favorable to his business interests [10:27].
• Public Persona: Musk's high-profile campaigning, including offering monetary incentives for voter participation, may have backfired by alienating voters [08:18].

Notable Quotes:

• Will Saletan [12:34]: “Which of those Musk effects prevailed?”
• Lauren Egan [09:05]: “...it was just so obvious, you know, that he was just trying to almost like, buy this election.”

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5. The Politics of the Judiciary and Rule of Law Concerns

The episode raises alarms about the increasing politicization of the judiciary and its implications for the rule of law in the United States.

Key Points:

• Partisan Judiciary: The election emphasized how judicial positions are becoming battlegrounds for partisan interests, threatening the impartiality of the legal system [14:00].
• Rule of Law at Stake: The potential for elected judges to make decisions influenced by political agendas poses a significant threat to the foundational principles of justice [15:23].

Notable Quotes:

• Will Saletan [11:44]: “What we have is the collapse of the rule of law. So I'm very concerned about that in Wisconsin.”
• JVL [15:23]: “Good news twice in one night... Stay with us.”

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6. Future Implications for Midterm Elections and Beyond

The outcomes of these elections hint at broader trends that could shape the political landscape leading into the midterms and future electoral contests.

Key Points:

• Democratic Momentum: Victories in traditionally Republican strongholds signal a potential shift in voter sentiment, emboldening Democratic strategies [03:43].
• Republican Reevaluation: Facing unexpected losses, the Republican Party may need to reassess its alignment with figures like Trump and Musk to regain footing [05:54].

Notable Quotes:

• Lauren Egan [06:19]: “If you're a Democrat and you are any person who's been angry about Trump and Musk... they had something they could do which was to vote.”
• Will Saletan [07:36]: “Do they get scared by... are these results enough to scare them to take some of the momentum out of the Trump Musk agenda on the Hill?”

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7. Conclusion: A Shift in Political Dynamics

The episode concludes on a cautiously optimistic note, highlighting the unexpected victories for Democrats and the challenges faced by Republicans in adapting to the evolving political climate.

Final Thoughts:

• Optimism for Democrats: The success in Wisconsin and Florida provides a morale boost for Democrats, showcasing their ability to compete in competitive districts [07:36].
• Challenges for Republicans: The Republican Party must navigate internal tensions and external pressures from influential figures like Musk to remain viable in upcoming elections [13:51].

Notable Quotes:

• JVL [15:23]: “Good news twice in one night. Hit, like, hit. Subscribe, follow the channel. Stay with us.”
• Will Saletan [12:56]: “Musk’s decision making about showing up and the way he talks could best be described as neurodivergent.”

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This episode of Bulwark Takes offers a comprehensive examination of pivotal election results that not only reshape immediate political landscapes but also underscore the broader implications for democracy and the rule of law in the United States.

Transcript

[JVL]

Hello, everyone. It is special election night. I'm JVL from the Bulwark here with my colleagues Lauren Egan and Will Saletan. And we have a result in the Wisconsin spring Supreme Court election, an election so important that Elon Musk said that it was the fate of Western civilization hung on it. And Dave Wasserman has seen enough. Susan Crawford, the Democrat, has defeated Brad Schmell. And it's, it seems like it is a little bit closer than you might have expected because the result down in the special election in Florida had a monstrous swing from, from 2024 with Trump, I think. Lauren, how, how big did that district swing? The Republicans still won, but much closer.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah, yeah, it was like a Trump. Plus Trump won that by like 30 points.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Lauren Egan]

So anything, you know, within striking distance was going.

[JVL]

The Democrat, I think was finished minus 8, minus 7.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah.

[JVL]

22 point swing, which is.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah, you know, if you're Republicans right now, you're terrified. Yeah, that is bad.

[JVL]

And, and what we have, what is interesting about the Wisconsin Supreme Court election is it's closer. Crawford. We think Crawford. Looks like Crawford's going to win by five or seven points maybe. I don't know. It's still early counting, but she's going to win. But this is a place where Republicans threw in everything plus the kitchen sink. Elon Musk has been barnstorming, handing out giant Publishers Clearinghouse size checks. And even today, one of his packs was offering people. I got to pull this up. Was offering people $50 for taking a picture of themselves voting outside of a location. I mean, you know, I'm sure all this is totally legal. So, Lauren, let me just go to you first. What do you, what do you make of this result? Surprised? Not surprised. What it, what is this? How does this make you feel?

[Lauren Egan]

Well, I think the Wisconsin one was truly. We didn't know how it was going to go. That was, that was going to be pretty close beforehand. Democrats were pretty confident, but they were still saying, look, anything could happen. So, yeah, if you're a Democrat tonight, you're feeling pretty good. Republicans, everyone in the White House has to be looking at elections tonight and being pretty anxious. These aren't good signs for them. You know, obviously the Florida was the Democrat and win, but that's as close as you can possibly hope for in a district like that. I mean, this is, you know, aside from like Doug Jones, his unprecedented win in Alabama a few years ago, like, this is kind of up there for, for an area that's like ruby red, Deep south type type of Congressional seat. I think what this means for Democrats is that they can play in just about any congressional seat where Trump was plus 7, maybe even plus 10. That's in play now. And for Republicans, it's going to be interesting to see, I think, how they respond, respond to this tonight and tomorrow. I mean, does leadership on the Hill for Republicans look at this and say, oh shit, maybe we should change some things up if we don't want to completely get demolished for the midterms. We know that they've had kind of a hard time doing some of that and standing up to Trump and maybe course correcting. So we'll have to see what they say tomorrow and how they try to spin this and frame it.

[JVL]

Before I get to you, Will. Lauren, this is why Elise Stefanik is not leaving her job, right? Totally. This, these results suggest that her district, which is kind of swingy, I mean it's a Republican district, but there's, I.

[Lauren Egan]

Think if a special election had to be held there, you know, that was obviously an early sign, an early tell a few days ago when they pulled, when she backed out, that they knew that they couldn't risk that. Which just says a lot if you know, someone like her is kind of a little anxious about making sure that they keep that seat.

[JVL]

Will, is it too much to hope that this could be seen as a repudiation of Elon Musk and oligarchical politics?

[Will Saletan]

No, it's not too much to hope that it's, it's, I mean, the most sarcastic with me. This is, I can't.

[Lauren Egan]

Emphasis on hope.

[Will Saletan]

I never expect to hear the word hope from you, jbl. So I'm just like, I'm, I adore it. I'm very happy that you're using that word. I'm going to leave the pony on the shelf because it, these margins tonight are not as what I had hoped. They're look, they're better. As Lauren said, these are just.

[JVL]

Lord, what were you hoping for?

[Will Saletan]

You know, there was talk, look, for Tony Fabrizio, there was talk that Tony Fabrizio had a poll that showed that Randy Fine was down three points. That is an, an seltzer level gap from the, the results that we're seeing. So like, I think that got people's hopes up. I, I dying to ask Lauren whether she thinks that poll is even on the level or whether that was like some version of the poll that they deliberately leaked to scare Republicans into turning out.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah, I think that that seems like there was some strategy strategical leak on that side because Everyone, you know, at, to Democrats there, like none of them thought that this was really, they had a chance at winning. They were trying to like be good sports and be like we're going to go down there, knock doors. But like this isn't happening. So yeah, I, so, so those margins know more about.

[Will Saletan]

Yeah, yeah, I'm dying to know about. So, so these margins are the Florida seats. As Lauren was saying, that's these are 30 point Republican districts. 30 point margin. The Gates one's even more like 35 or more. They end up being about 15 points each. I'm just looking at the latest numbers that I saw in the vicinity of 50. So that's like a 15 point gap from, you know, increase for Democrats, relatively speaking from.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah, I think, I think the exact one was the, it was Trump +26 and then this is an 18 point swing.

[Will Saletan]

Okay. Okay, cool.

[Lauren Egan]

Those are my 17.

[Will Saletan]

So that puts, that would have put the Stefanik seat right on the edge, I think. So the. And by the way, I have to, I want to get one pun in tonight, if you'll let me, which was that Jimmy Petronas was like, it was kind of a given that he was going to win that, that gate seat. So I was kind of in expecto patronus mode. I'm just going to set that aside. Sorry.

[JVL]

Oh, oh well.

[Will Saletan]

So anyway, those seats, we're going to Republicans going to win them. I want to come back to Lauren's point about what the Hill leadership is going to take from this because I think that's the key thing. If you're a Democrat and you are any person who's been angry about Trump and Musk and you're like, what the hell can I do about this onslaught? Right? Well, the people in these states and these districts can do, did something. They had something they could do which was to vote, but they could only affect those seats. But the larger effect is the one that Lauren's talking about. What is the effect on the psychology of Republicans in Congress? Do they get scared by. Are these results enough to scare them to take some of the momentum out of the Trump Musk agenda on the Hill? That's kind of the key question to me and I don't know what the answer to that is yet.

[JVL]

Is this a. Well, I mean, I expect that we're going to get some ketamine fueled rage tweets tonight from, from Musk, although maybe not fingers crossed because he really, I mean he pushed all in on this. You know, he kept going there and doing his video things and I mean, he even jumped up and showed the belly, I think. Right. Yeah, unfortunately. Can we just be happy that the people in Wisconsin were not interested in that? Even though he went to literally give away money, which, by the way, is that a thing he's going to be allowed to do in all elections going forward? Is that just, like, Is that cool now?

[Lauren Egan]

Apparently. I mean, this was, like, messy because, you know, like, the Wisconsin legal system didn't want to get, you know, it was just, like, all uncomfortable. But look, I think, you know, Republicans, in some ways, Trump has an out here. He can. He can throw Musk under the bus and view this. This was totally a referendum on Musk. He got himself so involved in this race that it was hard to. It's just like, hard to not read it as that. Like, that's what this was. So, you know, I think we've all been a little bit surprised by how, you know, Trump usually gets tired of people, especially people that like the limelight. That hasn't happened with Musk, which surprised me.

[JVL]

Ding, ding, ding. Lauren, this is what I was going to ask you next. Yeah.

[Lauren Egan]

And, you know, he has an out to say, blame, you know, kind of not a great night for Republicans. Blame it on Musk and say. And get rid of him and. But, like, you know, that. That's probably. That probably is a bit wishful thinking so far, because he's. He's held on to him pretty closely.

[JVL]

Well, it possible that Trump feels like he has to pump the brakes on Doge and Musk and throw him overboard. I mean, Doge stuff seems to be not very popular.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah. Especially after. Yeah, Doge stuff. Definitely not super popular. I would be. I'm interested to know sort of what the conversation is in the White House tonight and going into tomorrow morning, because it's hard to not read. That's what this was. Right? That's what this was. And if people in the Republican Party are coming to Trump and saying, do you want to hold on to majorities next November? If you want any shot at that, throw this guy under the bus. Cool it. On some of the Doge stuff, and let's try and find a path forward for this. It's only been two months. What if Doge keeps going for another few months? Where does that leave the White House then?

[Will Saletan]

On the Doge stuff? So, specifically, in the Florida races, the Democrats were banking on Social Security and veteran stuff. Right. And then Doge was going explicitly going at the VA implicit, messing with Social Security administration, while Trump is swearing he won't cut Social Security. So I don't know enough yet about the results to know how well those attacks worked from the Democrats. They obviously made up some ground, but maybe it could have been more in Wisconsin. Jbl, you asked about the Musk effect, and my question is, which Musk effect? Because he's got multiple effects going on. So one is just the sheer money that he put in. I mean, this is an insane situation in which a guy who is facing legislation, possible court rulings by the Wisconsin Supreme Court related to whether he can have dealerships in Wisconsin, like massive conflict of interest is pouring. He poured literally, what was it, more than $20 million into a state, into what is nominally a judicial election. Nominally a nonpartisan. To. Not to elect what everyone knows is the Republican candidate who will then, as a judge, decide whether.

[JVL]

Oh, no, I'm sure Brad would have recused himself.

[Will Saletan]

But that court is then supposed to rule on district maps. You know, like, there's, like, it's. There is no. Every part of this is partisan, every aspect of it, and it's encompassed the judiciary, and that's really alarming. But. So Musk pours this money in, and he hopes that will have an effect to elect his people. And it looks like tonight it did not help the Republicans enough. But the other Musk effect is the one you're talking about, which is Musk himself as a person, a person who is visibly, like, hacking the government to pieces, chainsawing people out of their jobs, chainsawing Social Security. For him to show up in Wisconsin as he did and make himself such an easy target as a person, I think probably outweighed the money that he put in. And that is going to be the crucial thing. Which of those Musk effects prevailed?

[JVL]

Yeah, I mean, fingers crossed. Elon does not seem like the kind of guy who can be super strategic and decide that he will be seen but not heard, you know, like, I don't get the sense he's the kind of guy who could be told, you just stroke the check, but maybe don't show up or talk. He likes being the main character.

[Lauren Egan]

Totally, totally. Yeah. Yeah. And I think it's a problem for them as long as it's so transparent. Like, Wisconsin was like, it was just so obvious, you know, that he was just trying to almost like, buy this election. And I think voters there. I mean, a lot of the reporting on the ground, reporting from Wisconsin does show that that's something that voters rubbed them, understandably. Really rubbed them the wrong way. So, yeah. What is the. The Republican Party has a Musk problem because they want that money. But if part of the deal is that Musk wants to show up and be on the stage and put the cheese hat on and whatever, to your point, well, like, does that just, you know, counteract and end up in a worse spot for them?

[Will Saletan]

Yeah. I mean, to put it politely, Musk's political talent. Musk's talent as a political Persona, setting aside whether he can engineer, you know, get out the vote in, in Pennsylvania, but as a person, his decision making about showing up and the way he talks could best be described as neurodivergent. I mean, this is not the guy you want to like, be a candidate. So I think he's, I think he made himself a very easy target. The other thing I wanted to say about this is the, in the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race, one of the ads that the Republicans ran against the, the nominally Democratic judge was, they had, they showed, I think it was Boasberg, the judge who's ruled against Trump on the, on deportations. And they said a liberal judge is trying to stop President Trump from doing his deportation agenda. Don't elect Susan Crawford. Don't elect another liberal judge. And the reason why this scares me is if we have the politicization of the judiciary to the point, you know, the judges are elected and if those elections can be won by voters being marshaled by people like Elon Musk and Donald Trump to throw out so called liberal judges who do so called liberal things like enforce the law against the president, draw constitutional boundaries against the president, then what we have is the collapse of the rule of law. So I'm very concerned about that in Wisconsin. And if that was avoided, that was a very important step in protecting the rule of law in this country.

[JVL]

Look at that. Good news twice in one night. Let's leave it there, guys. Hit, like, hit. Subscribe, follow the channel. Stay with us. The Bulwark. We're gonna be coming at you with more of it tomorrow, maybe even some more good news tomorrow. Good luck, America.