← Bulwark Takes
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- [00:01]
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- [01:00]
Will Saletan
Hey, everybody, it's Will Saletan from the Bulwark. So, usually on Sunday, I tell you what's going on on the Sunday shows, but Donald Trump had other plans, or should I say he had a lack of plans, because what is happening today is that the mess in Iran is getting even messier. I'm going to just tell you a little bit about what's been going on this weekend and how it's fallen apart and then explain to you what why that's happening and why Trump is totally unprepared for it. Okay, so first of all, there's been a lot of skirmishing, some firing of drones and missiles back and forth. I'm going to read to you first what a story in the New York Times today. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that it had targeted a US Naval base in Bahrain and the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait with drones and missiles and in retaliation for American attacks. Okay. U.S. officials still reading from the story. U.S. officials blamed Iran for the resumption of hostilities, saying it had launched drone attacks on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Okay, so you've got us and the Iranians shooting back and forth like we're not supposed to be because we were in a ceasefire and we signed this deal. Except the shooting is still going on. It's shooting against our allies in the Persian Gulf and it's shooting against oil tankers, which, remember, the whole point was to open up the Strait of Hormuz and get the oil out. Okay, so that's gone wrong. Second thing, the foreign minister of Iran is claiming that Iran, only Iran, gets to control the Strait of Hormuz here's the story in the Wall Street Journal today. Iran has the exclusive right to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz under the preliminary peace deal signed with President Trump, says the foreign minister Abbasaraghi on Sunday. He adds that attempts to circumvent Iran's authority risk triggering more strikes. They're going to strike us again and our neighbor and our allies in the next few days. The comments still reading from the story. The comments were among the clearest by a top official that Iran expects sole authority over the strait under the deal aimed at reopening the strategic waterway. They are at odds with American arguments, the ones we heard from Trump and J.D. vance, that the deal does, doesn't give Iran control and that navigation must be unimpeded in the international waterway in the strait. Okay, so those are the first two things that have gone wrong. Third thing, this story is from the New York Post today reporting what's in Iran's state media. Quote, iran has no choice but to develop a nuclear bomb. A media outlet linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the latest threat to the peace deal. This is a quote from, from the article by the the Guard Corps, to achieve the peace and calm that Iran needs, it must absolutely reach nuclear deterrence to ensure that the rest of the issues can be resolved through negotiations. So remember, the whole promise of this, of this war was we were going to deprive Iran of a nuclear weapon and they signed this agreement. Right. And now they're saying, well, we have to develop a nuclear weapon anyway, so where does all this mess leave us? All right, so first of all, let's consult the memorandum of understanding, the Iran deal that Trump and J.D. vance signed. Okay, let's start with the nuclear threat. What does the deal that we signed with Iran say about that? Well, paragraph eight of the Iran deal says the Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. And there are some details that follow from that. But this article that's been published by the Iranian government, or at least part of it, the part that has the weapons and therefore maybe the part we should be listening to, says they're just going to go ahead and develop nuclear weapons. So they are in violation of the agreement, which means that the war would have to restart if Trump and Vance are serious that they were going to enforce the agreement, which we may find out that they're not. Okay. But the other thing, the part about Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Let me read to you that paragraph from the Memorandum of understanding. Okay. Here's what it says. Remember, we signed this deal. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements, using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. Okay. And it goes on and says the Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz. With. In discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states, do you see anywhere in there where the United States has control over passage? In the straight in the Strait of Hormuz? I don't see it. We have agreed, we signed a piece of paper, the deal that basically lets Iran decide who it's going to talk to to resolve to control the strait. And this thing about, you know, services, maritime services, by the way, that's a setup for Iran to charge tolls, which, as you may have noticed, the agreement only says no tolls for 60 days. And then after that, the Iranians can do whatever they want. So the Iranians are totally within their rights under this deal to claim that they, not us, get to make some of these decisions. And then the question is, why the hell did we sign this paragraph of the deal? Why is it here? Remember Trump and Vance said, oh, we totally blew them away, right? We totally won this war. They're at our mercy. Remember Trump kept talking about how the Iranians are just begging us. They're begging us for a deal.
- [06:55]
Donald Trump
They are begging to make a deal, not me.
- [06:57]
Will Saletan
And then we sign this, this paragraph that gives them control. This is not the paragraph that you sign if they're begging and we're in control. This is the kind of paragraph you sign if you, the United States are trying to escape from the war with Iran and claim. Tell Americans that you're reopening the Strait without actually having to do any of the hard work.
- [07:19]
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- [08:19]
Will Saletan
So how did we get here? How did we, the country that claims to have won the war, end up in a position where we don't actually have logistical control of the Strait? And we don't even have a document in our agreement with Iran that gives us control of the strait? We can't even point to that. The answer is Trump has been trying to get out of this the whole time because he wanted to get the price of oil, the price of gas down, right? And then he's been lying to the American public about what he got in the deal and all this power that he has and that Iran is begging. And so Iran knows that they have him over a barrel. So I want to take you through some of what Trump has been saying this week and show you why they have him over a barrel. Okay. Monday, Trump speaks in the Oval Office and he talks about the Iran situation. And here's one part of what he said.
- [09:13]
Donald Trump
We have total control of the strait.
- [09:15]
Will Saletan
Total control. He's claiming we have total control. Why is he saying that? Not because it's true, but because he needs Americans to believe this for his ego. Right? And so he set himself up to be disproved by these drones and missile strikes that are flying over the Strait of Hormuz and hitting our allies and hitting us. Okay, then I want to show you something that Trump said in his speech in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. On Tuesday, he goes to Pennsylvania, he gives this big rally type speech and he says we're winning on everything. And here's part of what he said in that speech.
- [09:48]
Donald Trump
Venezuela has been great and Iran's been great. I mean, you know, if Iran's reasonable, if they're smart, otherwise we'll have to finish the job, which will take about maybe less than a week. But they're going to be okay. I think they're going to do what they have to do because we want to have it done.
- [10:03]
Will Saletan
It's great. He says Venezuela is great, Iran's great, everything's going great. He says. The Iranians, he says, are going to do what they have to do because we want to have it done. Oh, oh. And if they Don't. If things go south somehow, Trump says, no problem, he says, we'll finish the job, he says. And he says it'll take less than a week. Right. He was going at them for what, two months and he ended up with this lousy piece of paper that isn't even a capitulation. And he's going to tell you that in a week he'll be where, what is another week of bombing going to do that the six weeks that we did before that did not accomplish? He has no answer to that. It's an empty threat. Okay. That's what he said in the speech in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. And then on Wednesday, he spoke at this great American state fair and he bragged. He's been doing this all week, but he bragged about how low oil prices and gas prices are going to go.
- [11:01]
Donald Trump
We had to make that little journey to Iran to do what we did. Very soon you'll be at $2.50 a gallon for gasoline and even lower than that. Just like it was before we took the nuclear weapon away from Iran.
- [11:20]
Will Saletan
Just like it was, he says, before we took the nuclear weapon away. The weapon that the irgc, the Iranians are now threatening to develop anyway in violation of the agreement. Okay, but he says we're going to get it down to 250 a gallon. We're going to get it lower than it was before. I mean, he's, he's making promises to Americans that are contingent on the Strait of Hormuz being open. Does he think the Iranians are stupid? The Iranians can see that. They can see that Trump is politically vulnerable if the strait closes again. Right. He didn't accomplish what he wanted in the war. The strait is not open. The oil does not flow. The gas prices do not come down.
- [11:59]
Donald Trump
The.
- [11:59]
Will Saletan
They know that Trump cannot afford that politically. So these promises that he's making are just a setup to give Iran more leverage over him and us. Okay, so that's Wednesday. And then Thursday, Trump speaks at the White House and he brags again about how great everything's going and how he has the Iranians totally under his thumb.
- [12:18]
Donald Trump
They want to make a deal with us very badly. And we probably will. I think we will. But the strait is open. Yesterday they took out 19 million barrels of oil. That's the most in the history of the strait.
- [12:31]
Will Saletan
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. They want to make a deal with us very, very badly. So badly that they're shooting at our allies. They're shooting at the ships. That totally shows that they want to make a Deal badly. But. But the key part of this line is he says the strait is open. Obviously, the strait is not open, he says. Yesterday, he says, they took out. We took out 19 million barrels of oil. He says that's the most in the history of the strait. Really?
- [12:57]
Donald Trump
Really.
- [12:57]
Will Saletan
Because in my research, I saw that about 20 million barrels is the average. So he's just lying about how great things are. Right. But furthermore, you know, he's setting a bar at 19 million barrels. So now that ships are being fired on, probably that number is going to go down. And he's again politically vulnerable because he's over promising what he's been able to get out of the strait. Okay, so all of those clips show Trump over promising in terms of what he's accomplished, the leverage he has over Iran, when they actually have leverage over us, and how great things are going to be in terms of the price of oil and the price of gas. But Trump has also been blustering about the American political situation. So on Tuesday, he gave a gaggle with a bunch of reporters, and reporters asked him about a recent request from the Defense Department for more money. Here's the question. Mr. President of War is asking for
- [13:53]
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80 billion more dollars for the Iran war. Do you think Americans support this at a time when so many are financially struggling?
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Donald Trump
Not only do they support it, not only do they support it, they demand it, because they won't allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
- [14:08]
Will Saletan
Oh, not only do Americans support this war, he says.
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Donald Trump
Oh, they.
- [14:11]
Will Saletan
They demand it. They absolutely demand it. Gee, that's really odd, because first of all, the polls on this are terrible. There are clear majorities who oppose going to war. They certainly oppose going to war the way Trump did. And if Americans supported this, why didn't Trump talk to Americans before the war and say, you know, let's all get together. This is something we need to do. He never did that. I mean, there are several reasons why Americans don't support the war. Number one, it was unnecessary. Number two, Trump's an idiot, and he and Hegseth have been conducting it in the stupidest possible way, alienating as many of our allies as possible. But number three, he didn't ask. He didn't ask. You know, this is a guy who doesn't ask in his personal life, as we know, and he didn't ask about did we want to go to war. So it's not surprising that Americans didn't support this. And the Iranians know that Americans don't support this. Again, the Iranians are not stupid. They can read American polls. They know that Trump does not have his own country behind him because he didn't bother to do any of the prep work that would have been. Would have been necessary for that. And that gives the Iranians tremendous leverage. Because when Trump says, I'm going to go back to war, we're going to start this up again, I'm going to finish it in a week, no American believes it and no American not no American. But very few Americans support that. And because Iranians know that we're not behind that, they know that Trump's threat is, is bluster. They know he can't afford to sacrifice the midterms by going back to war in Iran. Okay, so he's blustering about that. But the other thing is Trump is kind of admitting that militarily, we are not as in control as we pretended to be. So on Friday, Trump spoke to the Faith and Freedom Coalition, which is a coalition of religious conservatives, and he did more of his bluster about Iran, and he said this about our military prowess in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
- [16:08]
Donald Trump
They're not winning or anything, but they have some cave they can still shoot. You know, they shot a drone yesterday at a big ship going into the Hormones Strait. They shot four of them. We knocked down three of them. One of them, I guess we didn't miss it. Nobody saw it coming. And it hit a ship and did some damage.
- [16:27]
Will Saletan
Okay, so there were four drones. We shot down three of them, says Trump. And he says we didn't miss it because. Because Trump does not want to admit that the American military would miss a drone. No, no. He wants to assure the world that we are so powerful that, quote, nobody saw it coming. He's admitting that we can't see that we don't have the intelligence capability or the visual ability, the tracking capability to see all of their drones. And he thinks that that's cool because that shows that we didn't actually miss it. No, no. What's happening here is the Iranians clearly are able to damage ships. They're damaging ships, and they're able to damage the facilities of our allies in the Persian Gulf. Trump keeps saying the Iranians have nothing left, but obviously they do. All right, so I've shown you what Trump has been saying in some of these White House events and some of these speeches, but I want to close with, with some of what he's been saying on Truth Social. So last night, Trump posted this on Truth Social. This is again, after some of the back and forth has started with the Iranians shooting at us and vice versa. He says United States aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites for violating the ceasefire. He says it's very possible they will never learn. There may come a point, he says, when we are no longer able to be reasonable and will be forced to. To militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. Can we pause on this phrase? We're going to military militarily complete, which he has said many times. We did militarily complete. And obviously he lied because every time he keeps saying it because it's not complete. But then he says it's the job that we very successfully started. This is a president who thinks that starting a war is a measure of success. Oh, we did very successfully start the war. It's just that we can't finish it. And there's a name for wars that you very successfully started and have no idea how to finish. They're wars you shouldn't have started in the first place. But he's too dumb or stubborn to admit that. Okay, and then Sunday afternoon, after all of this back and forth shooting, and after the Iranians have claimed that they control legally the Strait of Hormuz as well as logistically, and after the Iranians have posted this, this essay claiming that they're going to develop a nuclear weapon contrary to the agreement, after all of that, what does Donald Trump have to say? Is it about Iran? No. Donald Trump chimes in at 2:45 in the. After 2:42 in the afternoon with this post just returned, he says, from a tour of various statues, monuments, fountains, and most importantly, an old and rundown golf course located throughout Washington, D.C. our nation's capital. Almost all of the statues, monuments, and fountains, he says, have been completely renovated and restored and are in after suffering years of graffiti, abuse and vandalism. They're in perfect shape. That's what our president cares about. The reason why this Iran stuff is going to hell is because he's not paying attention to it. He didn't make sure that the agreement covered it. He's not enforcing the agreement. He has no effective plan, plans to follow up and enforce it. He can't win the war, and instead he is spending his time on his ballroom and his statues and his reflecting pool, because that's all he cares about. Look, if Americans wanted somebody to spend all his time on fountains and statues and the ballroom and the reflecting pool, we would have hired a contractor, we would have hired a gardener, we would have hired a landscaper. Right? That wasn't Donald Trump's job. We hired him to manage the president's job, which is the economy, affordability and things like national security, which he plainly does not have any idea how to run. And he started a war, he's blustering about it and he has no idea how to finish it. We didn't hire a landscaper. We thought we were hiring a president. And what we got instead was a con man. See you next time. Fifty years ago in Washington, D.C. an iconic museum building opened its doors. But to understand where it came from, we have to go back in time. This summer, the Airspace Podcast from Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum is diving into our own past to bring you the story of how we came to be. Join us for 50 years of air and space Search Airspace wherever you get your podcasts.
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Will Saletan
It was amazing.
- [21:45]
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