Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – "Is the Trump Spell Finally Breaking? Crashing Polls Could Show Crack in His Support"

Release Date: April 28, 2025
Host/Author: The Bulwark
Participants: Andrew Eggert (Host), Sarah Longwell, Lauren Egan

Introduction

In the episode titled "Is the Trump Spell Finally Breaking? Crashing Polls Could Show Crack in His Support," host Andrew Eggert engages in a comprehensive discussion with Sarah Longwell and Lauren Egan about the recent decline in former President Donald Trump's approval ratings. Released on April 28, 2025, the conversation delves into the factors contributing to this shift, its implications for the Republican Party, and the challenges facing the Democratic Party.

Declining Approval Ratings: A Critical Overview

Current Polling Data

Andrew Eggert opens the discussion by highlighting new polls indicating Trump's approval rating has dipped to around 40%, marking the lowest point in his current term and approaching the "disastrous" levels seen during his first term.

• Andrew Eggert [00:00-00:47]:
  “...we had a bunch of new polls over the weekend that have Trump's approval rating hovering right around 40%, which is as low as, as it's been so far in this term...”

Sarah Longwell reinforces this perspective, noting that the decline reflects growing public dissatisfaction with Trump's leadership.

Factors Behind the Decline in Trump's Popularity

Policy Decisions and Public Perception

Sarah Longwell attributes the drop in approval to several key factors:

1. Economic Concerns:

   • Sarah Longwell [00:47-03:11]:
     “...there were a lot of people super price sensitive, cared about their grocery bill, thought it was too high. Inflation was still wrecking them... people are feeling not good on basically every front...”

2. Authoritarian Tendencies:

   • Longwell emphasizes:
     “Donald Trump being a failure is good for people saying this is a failed experiment. Having an autocrat is no good for America...”

3. Immigration Policies:

   • She points out:
     “...illegally deporting people... there's enough people who are saying is this okay? This doesn't feel okay.”

Impact of Economic Mismanagement

Both hosts agree that Trump's economic policies, particularly those surrounding tariffs and immigration enforcement, have had tangible negative effects on everyday Americans, leading to widespread frustration.

• Andrew Eggert [07:49-08:24]:
  “...trying to pivot to the immigration enforcement, you know, the fights with the courts, all that stuff, none of these are like safe landing spaces for them...”

Sarah Longwell elaborates on how these policies translate into real-world hardships for small business owners and workers, exacerbating economic anxiety.

Implications for the Republican Party

Struggle Within the GOP

Lauren Egan discusses the potential repercussions within the Republican Party as Trump's approval wanes.

• Lauren Egan [05:07-07:21]:
  “...Republicans start to respond to this? They all have to run for reelection in a year from now... this could make it a bit easier for them to be like, oh yeah, like this guy is out of office...”

Lame Duck Status

Egan points out that Trump is currently a lame duck, which may pressure Congressional Republicans to distance themselves from his declining popularity to secure their own electoral prospects.

• Egan [06:41-07:35]:
  “...he is a lame duck. So I think what is going to be interesting to see over the coming weeks and months is how do Republicans and Congressional Republicans start to respond to this...”

Potential Shifts in GOP Strategy

Andrew Eggert underscores the difficulty Republicans face in breaking free from Trump’s influence, despite his decreasing support.

• Andrew Eggert [07:21-07:49]:
  “...how Trump can wield them however he wants. And if that is diminished, he becomes much less potent political figure...”

Challenges Facing the Democratic Party

Democrats' Struggles with Public Perception

Lauren Egan addresses the Democratic Party's own challenges, noting that while softened Trump support is advantageous, Democrats themselves are grappling with perceptions of being out of touch.

• Lauren Egan [13:37-16:00]:
  “...7 in 10 say that the Democratic Party is out of touch and 6 in 10 say the same about Trump... they still have work to do...”

Internal Debates on Messaging

Sarah Longwell highlights the internal conflicts within the Democratic Party regarding messaging strategies, particularly whether to focus on economic issues or social policies like immigration.

• Sarah Longwell [16:00-18:37]:
  “...they wanted to see their leaders... going out there and fighting back and saying, like, why this was wrong... Democrats have got to stop thinking about, roll over and play dead and let Trump do it himself and like, go on offense...”

Need for Aggressive Communication

The discussion emphasizes that Democrats need to adopt a more aggressive and proactive communication strategy to effectively counter Trump's influence and regain public trust.

Concluding Insights

Shift in Political Dynamics

The hosts conclude that Trump's declining approval ratings signal a significant shift in the political landscape. This shift opens opportunities for both the Republican and Democratic parties to redefine their strategies moving forward.

• Sarah Longwell [12:32-12:44]:
  “...you take that away from him, it starts to make a big difference in voters minds.”

Future Outlook

Andrew Eggert poses a thought-provoking comparison between Trump and Chief Justice John Roberts, suggesting that institutional figures may need to adapt in response to Trump's diminishing mandate.

• Andrew Eggert [12:44-13:37]:
  “...Donald Trump versus John Roberts... the Supreme Court... we'll see how all that goes.”

Call to Action for Democrats

The episode closes with a call for Democrats to embrace a more assertive stance in shaping public opinion and countering Trump's policies, highlighting the necessity for unified and dynamic strategies in the evolving political climate.

Notable Quotes

• Sarah Longwell [00:47]:
  “Donald Trump's strength... he got all of his insane picks for the Cabinet... the economy's great... people are like, wait, what's happening?”

• Andrew Eggert [03:11]:
  “...the worst things get for people... the more incompetent and just sort of destructive he looks... opens the door to talk about all the other stuff.”

• Sarah Longwell [16:00]:
  “Everyone wanted to see their Democratic leaders... going out there and fighting back and saying, like, why this was wrong.”

Conclusion

This episode of Bulwark Takes provides a thorough analysis of Donald Trump's declining approval ratings and its broader implications for American politics. Through insightful discussions, the hosts shed light on the multifaceted reasons behind the shift in public opinion and explore the consequential changes facing both the Republican and Democratic parties. The conversation underscores the importance of strategic communication and adaptive political strategies in navigating the current and future political landscape.