Joe Rogan (clip) (2:25)

insane based on what he ran on I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right? He ran on no more wars and these stupid senseless wars. And then we have one that we can't even really clearly define why we did it.

Tim Miller (2:40)

All right?

Sam Stein (2:40)

How many times can this man feel betrayed? This is like the sixth or seventh betrayal that Joe Rogan has endured over Donald Trump. And at some point, I feel like Joe Rogan should just do an hour podcast where he just talks to himself in the mirror about, like, what happened.

Tim Miller (2:57)

I think he's processing. And just in the spirit of radical candor, I've not consumed the two to three hour Joe Rogan interview with Michael Shellenberger, and I do not intend to. But I did talk to our guy Brandon, who watched a lot of it, just so I had a greater, fuller picture beyond what was happening in these little clips. And one of the things that Brendan said to me was that it was kind of testy. The interview is kind of testy because Schellenberger, if you don't know him, he's kind of a Rogan esque figure, but in the policy space, he was a lefty environmentalist type that became big contrarian around Covid and around Woke stuff. And so he kind of went down that same pipeline.

Sam Stein (3:41)

He's a free presser.

Tim Miller (3:42)

Yeah, in the policy space. Right. And it was interesting that Schellenberger remains, like, pretty defensive of Trump across all of these metrics because he, Shellenberger, feels betrayed by the left, fairly or unfairly. And so it's interesting that, like, that dynamic was such that I could make Rogan testy. And I think that's telling about this cognitive dissonance that you're talking about, Sam, where it's like he's like, wait a minute. At some level, say what you want about Joe Rogan. I think he at least had convinced himself that he was not being a hack, that he was on a authentic ideological journey from being a Bernie curious cultural conservative bro dude to being MAGA friendly because they had common agreements on a few things. And among the top, top thing on that list was not going into stupid Middle east wars.

LifeLock Advertiser (4:40)

Right?

Tim Miller (4:41)

And you know, and so you can imagine how somebody who really care who that is, something that, that they see as a defining issue of themselves, their own ideology. You could see how that that person could go from being, for Obama being anti Iraq war, to being Bernie curious, to all of a sudden saying like, look, this bipartisan establishment keeps taking us into fucking stupid wars. And here's this outsider guy who doesn't. And I don't and, you know, like, you can at least see how he could self conceive as, like, this was a rational trajectory for me. And now he has to sit in the stew of the fact that that bet was wrong and that he got duped and he got fooled by Trump. And you could see how that might make him testy. And you can see why that would. That would have him leaning into, like this notion of betrayal where it was not him that misjudged Trump, it was Trump that is betraying his people.

Sam Stein (5:32)

I suppose I also think the other thing here is like, okay, there are three real main issues here that have been the source of betrayal for Rogan. There's this one, there's the Epstein files, which was another animating issue for a lot of these folks. Like, they had to get to the bottom of the Epstein files, and Trump was going to get to the bottom of the Epstein files, and they promised to get to the bottom of the Epstein files. The other one is immigration, where, you know, they, I don't know, diluted themselves, convince themselves, whatever you want to say, that Trump would just go after the bad guys and then we're gonna have immigration raids across the country. And people were being hysterical. I think this is what probably gets them. I have no idea. I would love to know. But, like, during 04 or sorry, 24, a lot of the pushback against the Rogan types was, no, you're wrong. Like, Trump obviously is going to do mass deportations. He's cavalier on foreign policy. He'll probably get us into some sort of ridicul measuring contest with someone. He's not going to solve these wars. And, like, good luck with the Epstein files. This probably ain't going to happen. Right? And so I think some of the testiness is that he has to or he should admit, like, yeah, my detractors, the people who were telling me that I was being kind of naive and stupid about this stuff were right. And that's really hard to do. Right? You don't want to tell, you don't want to admit that the people who are like, yelling at you go to black pill space.

Tim Miller (6:53)

What is black.

Sam Stein (6:53)

What is black pill space?

Tim Miller (6:54)

Nihilism. You go to the space where it's just like, look, I was not. But I, you know, I did not show. Ms. Yeah. Judgment wrong. I was betrayed. And I'm going to continue to be betrayed because no matter who you put in there, whether it's Republicans or Democrats or populace or not, like, there's some deep state Borg out there that is going to make them all do this stuff. And I think that, that, I think that's where this is headed. I think that that's what a lot of these guys are going to convince themselves of and they're going to become nihilistic and, and jaded and want to check out of the political system. And I'm going to tell you the political system might have been better off when they were checked out in the first place. And so I don't, I don't know. That's bad. I don't think that we should necessarily see that as bad. Some people, you know, my boy Theo von Like some people were meant for politics, you know. Right, Theo, Theo Vaughn, like hey, we've done this before. He crushed it. Interviewing the Amish kid. That's great. That's funny. It's like, you know, Theo asking some Amish kid like hey, have you ever played Nintendo? That's good, that's good material. You know, talking to the Vice president not as strong. And it seems like these guys instincts doesn't seem like it's pretty clear. These guys radar antenna was way off when it comes to maga and I would love for them to see the light and see that it was the MAGA people in particular that betrayed them. But I think more likely is that they kind of start to go back to their world of non paying attention.

Sam Stein (8:27)

I was just an addendum on Theo because yes, I think you're right. And yet at the same time when he has Bobby Kennedy Jr. On talking about snorting lines of coke off a toilet seat, like I kind of like that content, honestly. Yeah, you know I talked to Will Summer a bit about a lot about this I should say about like sort of the people who get sucked into conspiracies because it was especially true around the Epstein stuff where like everyone was, was waiting for this great reveal and then it didn't come because Trump was just not allowing the documents to be released. And so I remember I was like Will, how do they sort of rationalize this stuff, right? Like they put all their hopes in Trump doing this and then he didn't do it. Like aren't they mad at Trump? And, and he said exactly what you said, which is that they just concoct a larger conspiracy like Trump. It's, Trump is actually like a bit player in this. Like the, the real forces are even bigger than Trump and they're controlling Trump and like it's not his fault. And I guess in, in the Iran stuff I know we're not playing the

Tim Miller (9:27)

clip this is where your people come back in Israel.

Sam Stein (9:29)

But, yeah, it's all. It comes back to the Jews. But in the Iran stuff, like, there's this new line out there. It's like, well, Lindsey Graham, you know, know he's just influencing Donald Trump, and, like, he's got way too much influence, and we just got to get Lindsay Graham out of there. It's like, yo, Donald Trump is the president. You know, he can do what he wants. If he's getting influenced this easily by Lindsay Graham, then maybe you should rethink your PRs about Donald Trump. Right?

Tim Miller (9:54)

Yeah, that is true. And they're not going to do it here. Let's take it out of politics. David from. I'm stealing this from David from. But he's good on this. It always resonated with me. He said, I. God, he must have said this on our podcast seven years ago, because, you know, time is a flat circle and we're all living the same thing over and over again. I was still in California because I can remember listening to this, being in California, being like, oh, yeah, that's right. And he's like, imagine somebody in your life that gets scammed by, you know, they purchase the condo in the Everglades, or their friend comes to them with an investment idea, and they put a bunch of money and maybe a little more than they can afford. And. And things start to go bad, and you go up to them as your friend and you say, hey, bro, like, you got scammed by this guy. Like, you got, like, what is their reaction gonna be? 9 times out of 10, there's some people who are bigger than this, but 9 times out of 10, the person's gonna be mad at you for calling them out for the scam, right? They're not gonna, you know, they're gonna think about how there's some other factor at play and, like, whatever. Fuck you for judging me. You know what I mean? And, like, I think that that. That human instinct to not want to, like, look inside and accept that somebody pulled one over on you. I think that's what we're seeing with Joe Rogan.

Sam Stein (11:11)

There's a famous story, and I wish I had it in front of me, about this professor, like an academic, smart guy. Obviously, he was a college professor who fell for one of these Nigerian prince scams. Do you remember this story? No, you don't remember the story? And he lost all his money. And even though he had been presented evidence that he had been scammed and he lost all this money, he continued to believe that the Scammer was real. Like, he could not get around the idea that this person was just like some, you know, jackass on the other side of the Internet telling him to, like, give up.

Tim Miller (11:48)

Yeah. Or. Yeah, something like that.

Sam Stein (11:50)

He's like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. This person really is in a heap of trouble and I have to help. So I think there's something to it. Back to the war itself. So let's play the other clip of Rogan warning about World War Three. And then I have some thoughts at the flip side of that.

Joe Rogan (clip) (12:06)

The whole situation internationally has been so tense already with what's going on in Gaza, with what's going on in Ukraine. It's like. And to add this to the pile, it's like, I mean, it genuinely feels like there's a real possibility that we might be entering World War Three.

Sam Stein (12:24)

Okay. So I don't know if we're entering World War Three. I happen to think we're not. But I do think there's something to the other elements of what he's talking about, which is the sense of just things completely out of control. I have my theory of politics. I've said it a million times, probably to you too, where it's like, all elections to me are sort of reactions to the last elections. And I think that's why Biden won in 2020, honestly, because people are just like, this is just too much Covid. All this. The economy sucking Trump and all this chaos. Like, let's just get the old steady man in there. And I think people like Rogan look at this and like, ah, Gez, like, oil's going up, oil's going down, jobs are going down, Trump's acting crazy. We have all these, you know, flashpoints across the globe. And I think there is a constituency out there that's just like, I want off this ride. I want normaly. I don't want to think about politics every waking minute. And I get. I think that's underrated a little bit. When we have our discussions, people just are just tired of it.

Tim Miller (13:22)

I have two reactions. I want to come back to World War 3, so don't let us. We'll come back talking about that. But to this, I think it's underappreciated how much people felt that way under Biden. And I think that some viewers of this will feel like that's unfair and that's fine. But I think that there were a lot of voters that had the sense that inflation was out of control. What Rogan just laid Out Ukraine was happening, Gaza was happening. And we've got this old guy who whatever, God love him, he might be well intended, but he's lost a step and he's asleep at the switch and things are spiraling. And I happen to think that's unfair because I think that just especially in America, we have this strange perception of the President as omnipotent, omniscient being that can fix every world problem. And, like, sometimes it ain't about us. Like, I don't really think that Ukraine or Gaza was really about us. Like, could he have handled those things a little better? Sure. But, like, the fact that they happened, I don't think was because old man Biden was in there. I think what happened anyway. But from a voter standpoint, you look at the world and you think, man, shit, like, things really expensive, I can punish. Crime is up a little bit. It started to come down to the end, but you know what I mean? Like, around the world, things are out of control. And I think that they looked back at Trump 19 pre Covid, and they're like, things were calmer back then. Like, Trump is crazy. It's weird. Like, we all know that Trump's insane, but, like, I think a lot of voters looked at it and was like, Trump was crazy and there were tweets and weird shit happening, but, like, generally things were calmer. And I do think that hurt Biden and then Harris eventually a lot. And I do think that that is hurting Trump now. I think that people have, like a goldfish element of element.

Sam Stein (15:04)

Here's a thought exercise. I thought about this a fair bit, actually, over the weekend. Let's say this was happening right now under Biden or Harris, and it's 2023. Okay.

Tim Miller (15:16)

Yep.

Sam Stein (15:16)

I'm talking about Iran. How would Donald Trump be reacting to this? What would he be saying?

Tim Miller (15:20)

They're stupid. They don't know how to handle this. This would never have started if it wasn't for me. You know what I mean? Like, there's no.

Sam Stein (15:27)

He would have been like, I would have had this negotiated. It would have been settled. Why are we putting US Troops in harm's way? He can't cut a deal. You know, he would have done exactly that. He would have absolutely perfect deal and

Tim Miller (15:38)

we wouldn't be in the. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, sure.

Sam Stein (15:41)

I think people don't appreciate that that was Trump's mo. I could settle this shit, this chaos, before it ever gets to chaos. And now he can't. Now he can't make that case. Right. Like, he's causing the chaos. So it was reported today. White House basically confirmed it. About 140 U.S. service members have been injured in this war with Iran. Includes eight who are seriously injured. That's not including the seven who have died. We also get word today that the administration says it's used $5.6 billion in munitions during the first two days of strikes in Iran. Then you have the stuff of reports that the Iranians are potentially putting mines in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump saying, well, I'm going to just blow them to smithereens if they do that. You have Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary, tweeting that the straits open, then deleting the tweet and oil spiking and going back and forth. It's just, it's chaos. It's like pure chaos right now. Which I guess leads back to your point about World War Three. What's the point you want to make?

Tim Miller (16:40)

It's chaos and it's lying too. Just one more thing on the line I'm covering up. They've been non candid with us about the other injuries and other things that have been happening. They've been trying to push that stuff under the rug. I wanted to make World War 3. I also don't think that this is World War 3. I don't think it's a zero percent chance. I guess I would say I think it's an extremely low chance, but I don't. So I don't think it's going to happen. But you know, the butterfly flap its wings thing is real. Like sometimes it ain't in your control. Like there are other counterparties out there, you know, and if Iran decides to get crazy, or China, like, who the hell knows, right? What could happen? I think sometimes, you know, I don't think that when Franz Ferdinand was killed, people thought that we're going to end up in World War I. So sometimes these things are not predictable. But I don't think we're going to World War 3. It was satisfying to hear Joe Rogan say that though, because so many of these guys, the amateur pro podcasters as well as the amateurish podcasters as well as like the isolationist Republican types, the maga, America first, the JD Vance types, those Republicans during that period with Biden for 22, 23, 24, they were throwing this shit around all the time, all the time. And like Biden was fucking honestly, like if you just look back at it with, with 2020 vision of being able to look back at the past, Biden should have given Ukraine more Weapons. Right. Because Ukraine was much more able to defend itself than. Than anybody thought. And potentially, like, Russia could have been stopped earlier, and they and the US didn't want to give them offensive weapons. We don't really know. We're not 100% sure. Who knows? You get counterfactuals. Who the hell knows what could have happened. But I. I think that. But. But the America first right wingers and the podcast bros were out there being like, biden's really risking, risking nuclear war here. How can we be helping Ukraine at all? Like, we should just leave letting Russia have Ukraine, because World War three could be imminent. World War three could be any day. We never got in a fucking. We were never sniffing World War III during the Biden administration. And then right now, like, while we aren't on the brink of World War III by any means, we're certainly, I would say, a step closer than we were when Biden was providing defensive weapons to Ukraine after they got invaded by Russia. And so it's nice. It's nice that there's at least somebody out there who is peddling that shit in 2022 is also peddling it now. I like that. I appreciate that consistency.

Sam Stein (19:09)

I think your boy David Sachs was the one who always was tweeting about World War Three. He has not said jack shit about what's happening in Iran. I guess because he's crypto.

Tim Miller (19:19)

There's a really good tweet somebody sent the other day, which is. It's sad. Passed away. No, it's like, it's sad that David Sachs has passed away because he would have so much to say about this war right now in Iran.

Sam Stein (19:30)

I know. I thought David Sacks was a poster at heart, but apparently not. He lost his touch. What the fuck?

Tim Miller (19:35)

David hasn't posted. That's a retweet. Let's find the last original. People who don't know David Sacks is the all in podcast. He's a VC bro, went pro. Trump is in the administration now as Trump still podcasting. His last tweet that he sent himself, not a retweet, was March 4.

Sam Stein (19:53)

Come on. Six days.

Tim Miller (19:55)

Six days ago. Not a lot to say from him lately. JD's also been pretty quiet on the Twitter.

Sam Stein (20:04)

Yeah, he has.

Tim Miller (20:04)

JD has been. I saw some of JD spokespeople doing the thing that I used to do when I didn't want my candidate to go out and talk about something, which was, what are you talking about? You know, what are you guys talking about? He did that. Like, he did. He went to that coffee shop this morning, and he did this friendly interview over here. Like, what do you mean? He's. But he's not been out there answering questions about his gaffe on the Iraq war. No, JD has not sent. He sent one tweet yesterday.

Sam Stein (20:29)

He was supposed to do a town hall.

Tim Miller (20:30)

Yeah. Canceled his town hall. Nothing. Nothing. Nada.

Sam Stein (20:35)

Nothing. Okay, we're waiting. All right, buddy. Good to speak to you. Always a pleasure. Thank you for founding the Bulwark.

Tim Miller (20:43)

Not quite. Might as well. It wouldn't have happened without me. So I'm kind of.

Sam Stein (20:48)

Everyone subscribe to the feed. Love you all. Talk to you later.

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