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Tim Miller
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JVL (John Lovett)
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Tim Miller
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JVL (John Lovett)
Hey guys, it's jvl. I sat down with John Lovett from Crooked Media yesterday to have a big old talk about, you know, gestures broadly, all of this. We really sort of focused on how we got here, what precisely is wrong with America and how we, all of us are going to figure our way out of here. And also a little bit about how Democrats are going to change to do their part to help us get out of here too. It's a pretty good talk. I think you'll like it. Here's the show I'm here with the.
Tim Miller
One, the only JVL from the bull work. It's just us right now, so I'm going to give it a minute. Well, we can just chitchat. Nice to meet you. We've never met in person. I'll do my fanning out right now. I really, you know, I, I'll be honest that I really didn't know you or your work before I knew of your association with Tim and Sarah and the Bulwark. But what I, I was thinking about it before we talked that what I appreciate and it is rare now and, and we know why. I appreciate seeing the, like the force of somebody who's conservative and someone who has conservative philosophy that's really rooted like a set of values, a view, a worldview put towards the project of fighting against Trump and this version of, of what a lot of Republicans have come to represent and that you do it from a point of view outside of the water I'm used to swimming in, which is the, the, the, the urbane, urban, cosmopolitan online left. Yeah, you wrote about some Republicans, some MAGA Republicans who were starting to become disillusioned with Trump because of how it was impacting a fire department program that they cared about. And so I've just really appreciated your perspective. All right, we have some people here. I want to start with what we learned the news today, which is we have National Guard members from West Virginia joined by members from Ohio, Mississippi.
JVL (John Lovett)
Oh, we're getting the run revs in.
Tim Miller
There too now, I believe so I don't know if they're there now, but my understanding is they're a part of this first cohort that's heading in. At least West Virginia has arrived, Louisiana too. I think they're there to make D.C. beautiful. Yen, you had a pitch which is that blue State governors should start activating their guard too. What is the pitch? Why does it seem so far fetched and what would happen if we actually did it?
JVL (John Lovett)
Yeah, I mean, to be clear, not a serious pitch. I'm not a child, I understand this is never going to happen, but the idea was that it would be an accelerationist and kind of clarifying thing that if, say, Westmore were to say, oh, Mr. President, you want the National Guard, you don't need to pay to. We really care about saving money. And so, you know, our, our National Guard is right, right here, right across the border in Chevy Chase. You know, we can walk two blocks and be over in Washington D.C. to help, to help, you know, keep everybody safe. But just understand that our guys are going to not wear masks and they're going to include and identify themselves. They're going to look out for all sorts of law breaking, including by, you know, gangs of masked men who assault people randomly without identifying themselves as law enforcement in any meaningful way. And of course this won't happen. And even if a Democratic governor attempted to do that, there are all sorts of problems, right? A, Trump would probably say no. B, they would become federalized, although they would still in theory, you know, report to their adjutant generals. But it is clarifying because of course Trump doesn't want blue State National Guard there. Why doesn't he want blue State National Guard there? Because none of this has anything to do with law enforcement. None of this has anything to do with criminality. This is all trial run authoritarian stuff. And I'm not in D.C. anymore, thank God. But I feel like a crazy person setting my hair on fire saying, like, why doesn't America think this is the biggest fucking deal that's happened since like the British sacked D.C. like, this is, this is a really big fucking deal. And everyone just seems to be like, well, you know, this is Trump being Trump, we'll all be fine. I don't get it, man.
Tim Miller
I don't either. And I do and I, I don't either. And I was interested in talking about this because I think in untangling why it's both, why it's so far fetched, I think you get at some of the problem and at some of the reason why people aren't responding the way you'd want because what Trump counts on, right, is that the criticism of Biden and foreign policy is because people like Vladimir Putin, others, recognize that America was afraid of escalation, that that was empowering. Right. That the US Would back Ukraine only so far as to a stalemate, but be afraid to take the step that would push the conflict into greater relief. Right. Which allows it to become this war of attrition domestically. That is a democratic instinct, democratic politics. We are afraid of escalation. I interviewed Karen Bass last week and I asked her, you know, there's this temporary restraining order against the Trump administration, basically roving the streets of LA and grabbing people because they're brown, claiming some other pretext, and they've stopped doing those roving arrests and cut the number of arrests as a result. But they filled a Penske truck with guys, sent them to a Home Depot, said they had work, and then grabbed a bunch of people. And they may have some flimsy reason or rationale for claiming how that's not racial or how it's only a component, therefore it's compliant, but it's not. And I asked her, I said, well, you have police, they're called the Los Angeles Police Department. They're responsible for arresting people who break the law. If federal agents are breaking the law.
JVL (John Lovett)
They'Re should the cops be there?
Tim Miller
Should the cops be there and should they be arresting them? And you end up dismissing it because it's so far fetched, it's so ridiculous. Is this the okay Corral? Right. But Trump's power play is based on the assumption that he will always, always, always make the first move, be the most aggressive.
JVL (John Lovett)
Yes. So this is, I mean, this happened domestically under the Biden administration. I don't know if you remember the Eagle Pass, Texas thing. So the governor of Texas was in, as part of his assertion that the Biden administration was either allowing or encouraging an illegal invasion, he cut off access for federal agents to the lands at Eagle Pass. And he brought in, I forget which. I think it was the Texas National Guard, although I, we're just talking live, maybe it wasn't, maybe it was state troopers or something like that, but he brought in his own, his own armed force, and they refused entry to a group of armed federal agents. Now, the Biden administration chose to do what I think all of us would say was the responsible thing, which is they went to court and they did not take out their guns and start shooting. They went to court to have the court request that the armed Texas agents of the state stop breaking the law and allow Them access. And eventually they won that case. But it's one of these things where you just think to yourself, but why did they do that? Like, if the FBI came to your house and said, we have a search warrant. You have to let us in. And you said, I have a gun and I don't want to let you in. You have to go to court and maybe get a court to fight this out. They would just knock down the fucking door and shoot you. Right? And there's this weird thing that happens. And again, I understand. I understand why, right? It seems reasonable and rational. You don't want groups of armed agents of the state shooting at one another. That's crazy. It's terrible. And you see this again, there's video again of cases where corrupt law enforcement officials are being raided, right? And either the Bureau of Internal affairs or the FBI shows up at a sheriff's office or something, the FBI agents act real damn polite while requesting that the people they're there to arrest agree to be arrested. Right? And you look at these things, you're like, hold on. Why is this. And it's only because the other people have guns.
Tim Miller
Well.
JVL (John Lovett)
And that's what this is all about.
Tim Miller
Well, I think it's three things, I think, yes. One, it's because everyone has a gun, right. I think two, there is rightly a sense of comedy and respect between law enforcement officers that is for good and for illness, right? For ill. That is a, you know, been a vehicle for corruption. It is a vehicle for law enforcement doing bad deeds to get away with stuff. Like, it can be bad, but there's a respect, right? We're all law enforcement. I'm with the FBI, you're with the sheriff, you're with the Metropolitan Police. But we're all law enforcement. We have a code. We respect each other. We're on one side against everybody else. Thin blue line, for good and for ill. But the third part of it, which is I think what you're getting at with your pitch here is this is a decadent and depraved era. And one part of what makes it decadent is we all, including Trump, have certain expectations about how things work. But those weren't natural. They were an order made by people who played by certain rules. And there had been corrupt cops and racist cops and all kinds of problems. And National Guard came when there were riots after the acquittal in the Rodney King trial. The National Guard desegregated the schools, Right? But for the most part, there is a kind of history in which there's an understanding that everybody here, at least ostensibly believes in following the law. Right. Well, what happens when that changes? And I think because a lot of people aren't paying attention, a lot of people aren't taking seriously enough, a lot of Americans have a expectation that things will work out because they always have in their minds in the stories we tell. We're just not comfortable with removing the patina of civil behavior and saying, wait a second. To the FBI, right? Well, to lapd, a member of the FBI is just a person.
JVL (John Lovett)
Right?
Tim Miller
Just a person. And if they break the law in the city of Los Angeles, that's just a person breaking law. Because you don't work for the federal government. That's not your agency. That's not your purview. You have no. You have to follow federal laws. Right. But that's just a guy in your city. And I think we're not really ready for that. We haven't fully wrapped our minds around that.
JVL (John Lovett)
Yeah. And this is. I mean, I. So I get frustrated by this stuff, but I do want to. This is a moment where you also do have to take a beat and say, well, so maybe the acceleration of stuff feels good. Is it really wisdom, though? Right, right. And I don't know the answer to that. Right. I mean, you can look back. So the Eagle Pass thing. Right. Was it wise for the federal government to say, no, we're not going to start shooting Texas National Guard people to make a point. We are going to go through the court system and be very nice, et cetera, et cetera, even though these people are breaking the law. I think that was wise. Right?
Tim Miller
Yeah.
JVL (John Lovett)
But also, you know, if the rule you followed led you to this place, what good was the rule? Right. At some point, I do wonder if, like, there has to be a conflagration.
Tim Miller
I don't know.
JVL (John Lovett)
I don't know the answer to this. And I'm glad it's not my call. I'm glad I'm not the one responsible for deciding yes or no. But you do look at it and say, well, I don't know, man. I mean, Trump does depend on everybody else saying at the last minute, no, we'll be the responsible ones and we'll make sure he doesn't burn the house down.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
JVL (John Lovett)
Can we get through this with everybody else doing that so that the house doesn't burn down? Like, you know, fingers crossed. But, like, look, I don't know.
Tim Miller
I don't know either. And I, And I just want. I do want to say, like, I think we're having this conversation apart, because my instincts certainly are towards. Of course you try to, you don't, you don't, no one's, you don't want people drawing worse. It's a thought experiment.
JVL (John Lovett)
My whole conservatism is always like the conservatism of, hey, as bad as things are, things can always be worse. Right. I mean, that's, well, right. And also that's where I live.
Tim Miller
And also because people who care about outcomes and not just their ego and not just power, taking risks is very risky and people get hurt and it doesn't always work out. Right. Taking that one third shot is dangerous and leaders don't do it because they care. And Trump does it and that is part of his power. But there is this feeling of these conversations are always too early or too late. There's no time when it's the right time to have it.
JVL (John Lovett)
That's right.
Tim Miller
We have, you know, at the same moment there are National Guard members policing in Washington. We should say that when it comes to people throwing on masks like who's behaving as the secret police. It's not the National Guard. It's not, it wasn't the Marines in la. It's ice. ICE is the culprit. But at the same time he's claiming federal prerogatives over voting machines, which is false. Right. And he's doing a lot of redecorating for a guy on a rental. And it will be too late when all of a sudden you have ICE agents ostensibly defending the homeland. Their slogan now around polling places in majority Latino neighborhoods. Right. And just there to keep an eye.
JVL (John Lovett)
Yeah. Together, by the way, like the anti mail in voting and the sending ICE into neighborhoods and being able to deploy National Guard anywhere they go together. Because Kamala Harris lost by what, 200,000 votes. Everything here is about can you shave off a hundredth of a point in turnout in the right 15 precincts? And I don't know, maybe you can, maybe you can't. Like American politics is a close friend thing. And I, you know, again, maybe this will all turn out to be alarmist and everything will be totally on the reg in 2026. But like, I wouldn't put money on that. And I think to anybody who, who is willing to put money on that at this point in time is probably a little crazy.
Tim Miller
And so let's get to look, I feel like there's this kind of conversation going on among people who are deeply worried about this. But then at the same time we're wondering where the outrage is beyond It. And clearly. Hey, Timmy. Clearly. Did Tim just jump in? Is Tim here? Oh, hi, Tim. Hi, Tim. I was just talking to Tim about how I talked to Nicole Wallace and she was doing some w nostalgia. And I was like, I'm not in. I'm not in. If you want that, you got to get Tim Miller. You got to get Tim Miller in this on the blower if you want w nostalgia. But why don't people care? Why can't we seem to wake people up? And it does get to the. To the lack of trust people have in Democrats in 2024. Kamala did her best in the aftermath of Biden, but we failed on two fronts. People didn't believe us to vote against Trump, and people didn't vote. Believe us to vote for Kamala Harris. And we can talk about the politics of that. But I'm just curious about why you think, given how obvious to us this threat is, that argument has so little purchase that even in your expectation of the midterms in 2026, we're talking about a few dozen precinct votes in precincts across the country instead of a blowout, and why core Democratic ideas don't have more purchase with people anymore. And what it says and what changed?
JVL (John Lovett)
Dude, if I knew the answer to that, I would tell you. Yeah, I mean, there are a couple possibilities. One is that none of those things were ever real or that they were real for a small percentage of the population, like the circles you and I ran in, but, you know, like, out in the world, nobody ever meant that shit. Like, that's just stuff that's on a car commercial for pickup trucks. It didn't mean anything to people. That's one possibility. Another possibility is that things changed, right? And you could tell yourself a story about why they changed. You would say something like, the rise of mobile computing plus social media plus Covid plus, you know, whatever else did something to people and broke their brains temporarily, maybe. So that's like, you know, another. Another story. The other version of the story is just decadence, is that it's a post Cold War story. We're so fat and happy that everybody just assumes that, hey, everything is always going to be fine, nothing could be that bad, and nothing's ever going to really change in fundamental ways. I don't know that I believe any of those stories, but all of them seem plausible to me. Another possibility, though, is that one of the things that has changed for real is that a critical mass of the population has decided that it wants autocracy. And when I say critical mass Like, I don't mean like 60% or 51% because you don't, you know, to have like big revolutionary changes, you don't need a majority. You know, like I think there were 20,000 Bolsheviks or something like that when we had the Russian Revolution. So you just need a large enough group that cares enough that they really can't be denied. Right. They, you know, something breaks their way and they're able to effect like real and permanent change. And I don't know, man. Like, I don't know the extent to which out in conservative world there are people who talk now totally openly about autocracy and they'll call it Caesarism or strong they call it, but they don't even like make the pretense of, well, it's all about liberty in states. Right. Like they're just past that. They're fully post liberal. And I don't know what that percentage is, but it's not 2%, you know what I'm saying? Like it's, it's not 3%. Yeah, maybe it's 15, but maybe it's 35. But it's big. And so maybe the change is that once you have a big enough part of the country which is truly post liberal, that if it's very, very hard to shape that and to sustain liberalism in the face of that assault.
Tim Miller
Yeah. I will say though, this is why.
JVL (John Lovett)
You and I have never talked before, because you like enjoying your life and sitting down with me, is this a.
Tim Miller
Sign that we haven't talked before? Is you think I like enjoying my life? I think there's two things to add to that. So. Because I think that's. Those are broadly, broadly, I agree with the sort of, the various ways, ways you can explain this. I will say though, it does matter that the diehards, and I don't know how many would claim they openly believe in autocracy, but the Trump diehards are a third. And you're right, a minority can inflict its will on the public. This is not a group of people. This isn't post World War I Germany with a bunch of guys that are shell shocked and young and angry and ready to take to the streets. This is a movement of, of the old and a movement from home of people watching television and posting. Right. So there is a majority that isn't totally aligned with this. And so you have to add to your list, there's a group of people that just don't feel the federal government don't think it delivers, don't think it can hurt Them that's a mix of decadence and failure, failure right in the face of economic change. And then the last piece, I would say, and I think this is where I start to find little bit of places to kind of grab onto in terms of a way out of this is Donald Trump's great strength, his great political ability is he can make the worst thing about you, the truest thing about you. He can make a politician find that ambition and that corruption and that lack of dignity and make it the most important thing. And he can go to a group of middle aged voters who are a little uncomfortable with changes and remind them of these animus that were buried, that are also alongside a bunch of other empathetic parts of themselves that are just as, that can be just as real and on our side. We really did lose a countervailing force to that when Obama gave way to Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden and that kind of that storytelling role, basically, since Joe Biden became president was empty and Gavin Newsom's trying to get attention, it's hard to do. You have people like Bernie Sanders that are trying to tell a different story. But largely we left that kind of positive space open and we decided that people really weren't voting on democracy, they were voting on pocketbook issues. And maybe we overcorrected. And that if you can find a way to appeal to the other virtues, other parts of people's identity, that you can kind of claw together a majority to take it back and start, build, sorry, sort of start a virtuous circle. That is possible. Right. Donald Trump does an immigration crackdown after basically a decade of Democrats being afraid of the issue or just raising their hands during a debate to embrace a left position to try to get out of it. And yet Americans didn't move to the right on immigration. As of now, they've moved to the left on immigration. 80% of Americans now say they're in favor. 7 of 79% now say they're in favor of just more immigration. They believe in it. They're against the crackdown. Right. Like that. It's amazing that despite all the propaganda, there is that belief in immigration that's still in there. Right. And so like, people are complicated and we've just failed to tap into the good part. And Trump is so adept at tapping into the bad part.
JVL (John Lovett)
Yeah, I mean, there's an, there's an even stupider possible explanation, which is that slump is so e generis and he is a unique figure in American politics because he's been part of the national furniture for 40 years. Like, you know, he's been famous for 40 years. He's been a guy with a board game named after him. And he was on TV for a while and he showed up doing this Father Coughlin routine that was also, like, part Borschtfeld comedy. And, like, and then it's all really particular to him and that once he goes away, like, it turns out there isn't anything there. There isn't a real appetite for authoritarianism. There's a bunch of people who suddenly thought, yeah, politics can be sort of fun. We don't have to have these scripted people who always say, you know, like, serious things at serious times. Like, maybe that's it. That would be great. I'm open to that possibility that this thing all sort of resolves itself. That is, I don't know about you, but I have, you know, guys like you and I spend all of our time thinking about, like, what button can be pressed to make everything better.
Tim Miller
Right.
JVL (John Lovett)
But of course, it's possible that, like, there are no buttons to be pressed and that these things resolve on their own. Yeah. There's a book, the Age of Acrimony, which is about, like the 1890s to 1910s in America. And that's another case of it was a moment kind of like this, and then the answer is, like, it just stopped. And there is something, if you want to be, if you want to be optimistic, there's something quintessentially American about the fact that we rarely solve our problems. We just bulldoze over them and we build new problems on top of them. You know, so did we solve the problems inherent in the Vietnam War? No, not really. We just sort of like, walked away from it and then built a new set of problems on top of that. And maybe that's what we'll do this time.
Tim Miller
I don't know.
JVL (John Lovett)
I mean, I'm grasping because again, what I really think in my heart of hearts is that actually 30% of the country wants autocracy because they're post liberal. So. But I'm trying to offer alternative theories.
Tim Miller
No, I'm, I, I, I, but I, but I, I, I think, I think both of what you're. That can, both that can be true and this can be true. Right. It can be absolutely true that there's a third of the country that's, that's lost in a lot of ways. Hillary Clinton called them deplorable, whatever she faced. Politicians don't do punditry. Just say what you're going to do, even when you're Right, you'll pay. You'll pay in blood. But, yeah, sure, but we've, we've, you know, the question to me is, okay, what made Trump so appealing to that group of people? What does fascism offer that we obviously shouldn't but need to be able to offer an alternative that appeals to enough people to pull them away? Right. And fascism, fascism promises order. It promises meaning. Clearly, we have a crisis of meaning of some kind. And all of these pieces seem to fit into that in some way. And I think these conversations to me are ultimately about how do we answer that? Meaning that crisis of meaning that allowed people to grab onto something like this. And I do think that's the phones, I think that's the economy. I think that's decadence. I think that's people finding that they made a bargain of they wouldn't go to church, but they'd get a really cheap TV. And then the TVs started getting more expensive, and it's really unsatisfying. There's a, like, there's a cultural piece of this below. And I think thinking through what led us to embrace enough people to embrace someone like Trump starts to point to how Democrats have to kind of provide an answer of their own. And I don't have. I don't know what it's going to look like. And until then, we'll be contending with ICE SUVs with Donald Trump's name on the back.
JVL (John Lovett)
Again, not something you do when you're renting the place.
Tim Miller
Right, right, right, right. Jbl, it's been good talking to you. Any final thoughts?
JVL (John Lovett)
It's been great, man. I'm just. It is fantastic getting to see you and, like, talk to you in real life, person. And I think I've now met all the big three from crooked. I'm excited to have done it. You guys are great. We work different sides of the street, but I have a tremendous amount of respect for what you guys do.
Tim Miller
And I will always feel incredible respect and admiration for the conservatives that stood up for what was right. Because, look, for us, I'm proud of what we built. I really believe in it. I believe in this. But it was much less risky for us to say we thought Donald Trump was a threat because we weren't standing up against a bunch of people we consider friends, and we weren't putting our reputations on the line in quite the same way. And it is a sad statement about how few people on the right did it, but it's a very good statement about the ones who did. And so jvl really good to talk to you and everybody listening. Subscribe to the Bulwark. Hit us with a subscribe at Crooked on Substack. We're building something over here. We got it together. Build a big pro democratic, relentless movement to counter rising authoritarianism. Because we got to build it before or maybe after it's too late. But either way, we got to build it. Jbl, thanks so much. All right, signing off.
Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Host(s): Tim Miller, JVL (The Bulwark)
Guest: Jon Lovett (Crooked Media)
Date: August 21, 2025
This episode brings together JVL (Jonathan V. Last from The Bulwark) and Jon Lovett (Crooked Media, Pod Save America) for a candid, searching conversation about America’s “autocracy problem.” Against the backdrop of fresh National Guard deployments to Washington, D.C., in the wake of a new Trump era, the hosts explore how America got here, what’s broken in its political culture, and how (or if) Democrats and civic-minded conservatives can help steer the nation out of an authoritarian spiral. The talk delves into political apathy, habits of restraint in U.S. policing and politics, the passivity of Democratic strategies, meaning and identity in politics, and whether the urge for autocracy among Americans is temporary or lasting.
[00:30 – 03:25]
[02:56 – 05:18]
“This is all trial run authoritarian stuff… why doesn’t America think this is the biggest fucking deal?”
— JVL [04:23]
[05:18 – 13:31]
“We’re just not comfortable with removing the patina of civil behavior…”
— Tim Miller [11:10]
[12:15 – 14:38]
“My whole conservatism is the conservatism of, hey, as bad as things are, things can always be worse.”
— JVL [13:54]
[14:38 – 17:50]
[17:50 – 20:41]
“There are people who talk now totally openly about autocracy… and they don’t even make the pretense… They’re fully post-liberal.”
— JVL [19:35]
[20:41 – 24:08]
[24:08 – 26:12]
[26:12 – 28:08]
“I think these conversations… are ultimately about how do we answer [the] crisis of meaning that allowed people to grab onto something like this.”
— JVL (Jon Lovett) [27:12]
[28:08 – 29:00]
“Why doesn’t America think this is the biggest fucking deal that’s happened since like the British sacked D.C.?”
— JVL [04:23]
“This is all trial run authoritarian stuff.”
— JVL [04:37]
“Trump’s power play is based on the assumption that he will always, always, always make the first move, be the most aggressive.”
— Tim Miller [07:23]
“My whole conservatism is always like the conservatism of, hey, as bad as things are, things can always be worse.”
— JVL [13:54]
“People are complicated and we’ve just failed to tap into the good part. And Trump is so adept at tapping into the bad part.”
— Tim Miller [23:44]
“Fascism promises order. It promises meaning. Clearly, we have a crisis of meaning of some kind.”
— JVL (Jon Lovett) [27:00]
| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:30 | JVL introduces the show and the episode’s goal | | 02:56 | Discussion of National Guard deployments in D.C. | | 04:23 | “Why doesn’t America think this is the biggest fucking deal…?” | | 07:23 | Trump’s aggression and power plays | | 12:53 | Debating wisdom versus accelerationism | | 16:21 | Why can’t we wake people up? Outrage fatigue | | 19:35 | Open talk of autocracy among conservatives | | 21:08 | Trump diehards as a minority, democracy’s fragile majority | | 23:44 | “People are complicated and we’ve just failed to tap into the good” | | 24:38 | Trump’s unique personal factor | | 27:12 | The “crisis of meaning” in American democracy | | 28:29 | Respect across political divides—call for a pro-democracy movement |
The episode is marked by frank, frustrated, sometimes darkly humorous reflection. Both JVL and Lovett speak in direct, sometimes exasperated language, confronting uncomfortable truths about American democracy, the possibility of normalization of autocracy, and the failures of both right and left. The banter is collegial but urgent, blending analytic detachment with personal worry.
This episode features two ideologically different but democracy-minded commentators grappling with the country’s slide toward authoritarian tendencies, the limits of institutional and popular resistance, and the failure of existing political narratives to rouse the public. In the face of the “autocracy problem”—whether it is temporary or portentous—JVL and Lovett call for a renewed, positive purpose in politics, grounded in meaning and virtue, as the antidote to rising illiberalism. They end not with easy answers, but a sense of urgency and a respectful, cross-partisan camaraderie that itself is a quiet rebuke to the subject at hand.