Bulwark Takes: Katie Couric LIVE on Trump's AWFUL Polls, GOP's Gerrymander Faceplant, WHCD Drama

Date: April 22, 2026
Host: Katie Couric
Guests: Bill Kristol, JVL (Joe Villa)

Episode Overview

This high-energy roundtable brings together Katie Couric, Bill Kristol, and JVL for a sharp, unsparing look at the latest political news. The trio dive deeply into Tucker Carlson’s public break with Trump, the chaos in GOP media ranks, speculation on Trump’s future aspirations (and those of his family), the turbulent war with Iran, alarming poll numbers, GOP gerrymander setbacks in Virginia, and the changing meaning of the White House Correspondents’ Dinner (WHCD). Peppered with memorable quotes and the panel’s signature wit, the conversation blends genuine alarm about the direction of American democracy with gallows humor and personal reminiscence.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tucker Carlson’s “Anguished” Break from Trump

[02:42 – 06:15]

• Katie opens with Tucker Carlson’s now-viral “anguished confession” about his role in Trumpism.
• Kristol’s take: He’s skeptical, calling it calculated:

  “I don’t think he’s being honest. I don’t think he’s tormented. I think he’s happy supported Trump. … Now he’s laying the groundwork, I assume to run maybe himself in 2027, 2028, or at least to be a key player.” (Bill Kristol, 03:39)

• JVL presents the optimistic view:

  “Isn’t this everything we want? What isn’t what we want from the people who supported Trump? For them to stop supporting Trump and to say they were wrong … and to then say, and I should be accountable?” (JVL, 04:26)

• Both agree Carlson has political ambitions and that his alleged anti-war stance, especially regarding Israel, helps distance him from Trump for a future run.

2. Will Trump Run Again? And Who Could Stop Him?

[06:15 – 13:53]

• Kristol and JVL agree Trump desperately wants to retain power, possibly even testing the 22nd Amendment.
  • On Trump skirting term limits:

    “Really? Who’s going to stop him?” (Kristol, 08:31) “Trump would say the 22nd Amendment is really about consecutive terms. I didn’t have consecutive terms. Also, I was cheated. Therefore, I’m entitled to this.” (JVL, 09:10)

  • Both envision scenarios where Trump or Don Jr. becomes nominee, either through state-level GOP help or delay tactics in the courts.
  • On the Trump family’s interest:

    “This is all because, you know, people, especially foreign governments, know that it is valuable to have a line into the White House, especially when the White House is for sale. Why would they give that up?” (JVL, 13:13)

• Don Jr. & Dynasty Possibilities:

  “Don Jr… is an absolutely a viable candidate in a way that, like, Eric Trump is not…he’s beloved. He’s like a mascot for the Trump lifestyle brand.” (JVL, 11:10)

  • Trump may use Don Jr. as his successor to maintain the family brand (and stream of lucrative influence).

3. Right-Wing Media Fractures: Sincere or Calculated?

[13:53 – 20:16]

• Katie asks: What’s driving right-wing media elites (Tucker, Alex Jones, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens) to distance themselves from Trump?
• Kristol:

  “A lot of it is about Israel. Some of it’s about his poll numbers going down… Some of it is about, I guess, actual foreign policy issues and… personal insults.” (14:49)

• The panel notes such fractures often weaken autocratic movements but can also radicalize them—dangerous if factions vie to be “the true heir.”
• JVL: Skeptical if these elite defections will affect Trump’s GOP base:

  “Are their audiences going to stay with these guys if they… really do go full anti Trump?... That’s my question for you guys.” (17:29)

4. Trump’s Awful Poll Numbers, Discontent, and the GOP Base

[39:06 – 44:59]

• Katie details new Reuters/Ipsos polling:
  • Trump’s approval “remains at 36% with 62% disapproving.”
  • Even Republicans question his “temperament and mental sharpness.”
  • Majority say his faculties have declined; Rep. Raskin pushes to invoke the 25th Amendment.
• Kristol:

  “[Polls] are getting close to Nixon levels now in ’74… I think Trump’s personal hold on the party has diminished some anyway. No, I think his numbers are bad and we’ll see if they keep going down or not.” (40:21)

• But institutional loyalty—especially in the Senate and via major donors and businesses—remains strong, making real desertion unlikely unless both houses flip.

5. The War with Iran: Trump’s Motivations and Fallout

[21:51 – 36:25]

• Katie requests clarity on the “confused” Iran situation.
• Kristol:

  “He got into it because he thought it would be Venezuela again…Then the Strait of Hormuz got closed…and the economy starts to get affected…He always had that kind of fascistic…love of sort of a cartoon version of the military...But Trump maybe can wiggle out of it...His lesson?…He’s had a taste of the blood. And I think Cuba, Greenland…I think he wants successful foreign adventures. Especially if his polls go down, he thinks that’s the way to do it.” (22:28 – 26:01)

• Military Pushback:

  “Centcom waited…I think it was two days or three days. And then CENTCOM finally clarified, no, no, no…We’re blockading Iranian ports. We are NOT blockading the strait…” (JVL, 29:48)

• Strategic Ramifications:
  • U.S. credibility badly damaged; potential long-term benefit to China and Iran.
  • Panel collectively worries about instability, potential for further unlawful military adventures, and institutional strain between Pentagon and White House.

6. The Virginia Redistricting Referendum—A GOP Faceplant?

[51:40 – 58:01]

• Context: Virginia judge blocks certification of Dem-favoring congressional map, pending appeal.
• Kristol’s Summary:

  “There was a constitutional amendment…that established a nonpartisan commission. And they actually did a good job…But once Texas…and other…state legislatures gerrymandered further…Newsom in California said, no, no, no…Virginia, you have to get a popular vote here. It was closer…But they did it…And I think, I think we’ll end up with more Democratic representatives.” (52:28 – 55:29)

• JVL’s Principle:

  “Unilateral disarmament is not a path to peace…you have to have deterrence. And I give Democrats a great deal of credit for…the proportional response to Republican illiberal aggression.” (56:57)

• Katie: Verdict—a necessary if distasteful tit-for-tat:

  “After all is said and done, it’s a wash. Right. But it would have been catastrophic for the Democrats if they hadn’t played the game.” (56:41)

7. White House Correspondents Dinner: From Community to Farce

[58:01 – 66:44]

• Panel reflects on how the WHCD went from a communal, even glamorous, rite of passage to a symbol of Washington’s altered moral/political landscape.
• Katie:

  “You’ve got this president who trashes the press, who insults reporters on a daily basis, especially female reporters…but really all reporters… who…started the ‘fake news’ moniker…” (59:34)

• JVL’s Rant:

  “We are living through an authoritarian attempt. It is categorically different than it was prior to 2016…any journalist who’s going to show up to this thing and pretend that it’s just like the old days…is complicit in normalizing this and downplaying the very real risks that there are for the country and for liberal democracy.” (61:20)

• Memorable nostalgia:
  • Celebrity sightings (Julia Louis-Dreyfus! Christie Brinkley! The West Wing cast!)
  • The former “nerd prom” was fun, unifying—a distant memory in the current climate.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Skepticism on Carlson’s “Repentance”:

  “I don’t think he’s being honest. I don’t think he’s tormented. … He’s laying the groundwork…to run maybe himself in 2027, 2028.” (Kristol, 03:39)

• On the Trump Dynasty:

  “Don Jr.…is the presumed front runner for 2032. And all this is about preserving access [for the Trump family].” (JVL, 11:10)

• On the Republican Party’s commitment to Trump:

  “Whoever Donald Trump endorses for president in 2028…is very likely to be the Republican nominee.” (Kristol, 43:52)

• On military unease:

  “You could have a genuine constitutional crisis…the entire Joint Chiefs say, ‘I’m sorry, we’re not doing that, we’re resigning.’” (Kristol, 28:30)

• SHARPEST BURN:

  “Is there anybody more loathsome in American politics than J.D. Vance? I don’t think there is…At least you could say [others] authentically believe whatever they believe. … J.D. is just…he’s a horrific shapeshifter.” (JVL, 45:39)

• On the meaning of WHCD now:

  “Any journalist who’s going to show up to this thing and pretend that…it’s all normal…is complicit in normalizing this and downplaying the very real risks.” (JVL, 61:20) “You felt like you were part of something important, honestly, when you went there and something good.” (Katie, 65:01)

Important Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|----------------| | Tucker Carlson’s “confession” & panel debate | 02:42 – 06:15 | | Will Trump run again? Don Jr. as heir | 06:15 – 13:53 | | Media right’s fracturing over Trump | 13:53 – 20:16 | | Trump’s war with Iran | 21:51 – 36:25 | | Foreign policy fallout/NATO discussion | 36:25 – 39:06 | | Trump’s poll numbers & GOP base | 39:06 – 44:59 | | Virginia redistricting fight | 51:40 – 58:01 | | White House Correspondents’ Dinner nostalgia | 58:01 – 66:44 |

Final Thoughts

The panel pulls no punches on the dangers of current trends: the normalization of autocracy, the strategic incompetence in foreign policy, the astonishing grip of Trumpism on the GOP, and the distressing degeneration of once-cherished institutions and rituals. Yet, Katie, Kristol, and JVL retain their humor, camaraderie, and hope that clarity and democratic resilience may eventually win out.