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Bulwark Takes
Katie Couric LIVE on Trump's AWFUL Polls, GOP's Gerrymander Faceplant, WHCD Drama
01:06:56
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- [00:01]
Bill Kristol
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- [00:24]
JVL (Joe Villa)
a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details. Hi, there we are. James and Dan. 2 thoughts of the Hit UK Podcast
- [00:37]
Bill Kristol
no such Thing as a Fish.
- [00:38]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Each week we get around the microphones with our four favorite facts that we've learned over the last seven days and sit down to blow each other's minds. Yeah, here's a fact for you, Dan. Yep, in knot theory, a circle of rope without a knot is technically a knot, but it's called a knot knot. Very good. I go on here as well. In 2019, a marathon runner with the words Jesus saves written on his bib had a heart attack, but was revived by a man called Jesus. That is amazing. If you want to hear more facts like that, search for no such thing
- [01:06]
Bill Kristol
as a fish wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:10]
Katie
I think we're live. Are we live as Bill yeah, we are. We're doing it live. Hi everyone. Well, I. Happy hump day. This is one of my favorite things to do because I love to talk to really smart people about what's going on in the world. And today my two smarty pants friends, Bill, Crystal and JBL are going to talk about so many things that are happening in the news. But the headline, I guess, you guys. Well, there are many headlines. That's part of the problem. But we're going to be talking about the sentence we never thought we'd hear from Tucker Carlson's mouth. Or at least at this point, Trump's poll numbers, the news coming out of the Strait of Hormuz with our straight up Hormuz expert jbl, and the Virginia redistricting vote that's going to change everything for Democrats, including voters. I'm not going to say you're a Democrat, but voters like Bill Kristol, who lives in the Old Dominion. Anyway, you guys. So I just have to ask you both about Tucker Carlson and this midstream conversion where he went on a podcast with his brother Buckley. And of course his brother's name is Buckley, Buckley and Tucker. And I guess Tucker has a son named Buckley as well, after his brother. Meanwhile, I think his brother is definitely using RFK Junior's tanning bed, but that's beside the point. Let's listen to what Tucker said. That is really kind of creating huge waves all around the media eco system anyway, so let's listen.
- [02:43]
Bill Kristol
Looking back being. Because, I mean, you and I and everyone else who supported him, you wrote speeches for him, I campaigned for him. I mean, we're implicated in this for sure.
- [02:53]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Yes.
- [02:53]
Bill Kristol
It's not enough to say, well, I changed my mind, or like, oh, this is bad, I'm out. It's like in very small ways, but in real ways, you and me and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now.
- [03:08]
Katie
Yes.
- [03:09]
Bill Kristol
So I do think it's like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. You know, we'll be tormented by it for a long time. I will be. And, and I want to say I'm sorry for misleading people in was not intentional. That's all I'll say.
- [03:27]
Katie
All right. Were you guys surprised by this admission? Did I? You kind of heard rumblings and it seemed to be headed that way. So. So I just really want to get your reaction. First you, Bill.
- [03:40]
Bill Kristol
I don't think he's being honest. I don't think he's tormented. I don't think his conscience is bothering him. I think he's happy supported Trump. He did great in the Trump years, and now he's laying the groundwork, I assume to run maybe himself in 20, 27, 28, or at least to be a key player on the Republican side. And he realizes Trump's going to want himself, presumably, or maybe Don Jr. As his heir. Then there's Vance kind of cluttering up the kind of semi established MAGA establishment lane. And Tucker can be the outside or the anti Israel and anti everything, you know, radical outsider, but he has to sort of separate himself from Trump. And the way to do it is with an anguished profession of how bad he feels, which I don't really believe.
- [04:20]
Katie
Wow. Wow, you're so cynical. But what do you think, jbl, do you agree?
- [04:26]
JVL (Joe Villa)
I mean, I don't know. I mean, so I've, I've known Tucker for a very, very long time. We used to be very close friends. We are. We are. Not really anymore. I. So I got yelled at by Tim and Sarah talking about this yesterday because I said, look, isn't this everything we want? Right? I mean, what isn't what we want from the people who supported Trump? For them to stop supporting Trump and to say they were wrong to support him and to then say, and I, I should be Accountable for this. Yeah, like that's maybe, maybe it's insincere, maybe it's sincere, maybe it's positioning for something else. I, one of the things I have struggled with though, is that so many of Trump's elite level supporters are, are totally in bad faith, right? Let's say one thing in private, another think in public and like, well, I've been desperate to have anybody on that side of the MAGA world who actually believes the shit they say, right? And this is one of the reasons I have such a soft spot for Marjorie Taylor Greene, because Marjorie Taylor Greene, however crazy she is, she does believe it. Like, she's not in on the joke, you know, And Tucker is, is actually believing. I mean, he has the courage of his convictions that wars, and especially wars involving American alliances with Israel are really, really bad and he hates them and he's willing to break with people. Trump over it. And so like, okay, like one and a half. Cheers. No, I mean, I'm maybe and maybe not like, you know, and I don't know.
- [06:04]
Bill Kristol
I'm not possible.
- [06:05]
JVL (Joe Villa)
He's running. Like, I, I think it's possible he's running too. We could talk about whether or not we think that will work out or not.
- [06:15]
Katie
Well, let. You, you, you, that's, that's, that's a good question. I mean, how, how serious do you think, Bill, this is that he is going to run for President of the United States? TUCKER CARLSON and would he have a chance to get the Republican nomination anyway?
- [06:35]
Bill Kristol
He certainly thought about it over the years. He spoke at the Republican convention at a key spot this in 2024. He's been at the White House many times. No one, everyone thinks about it in that way. You know, if you're at that level and that fame and he's made a lot of money and he has a pretty devoted following. I don't, I don't know that he will. He might enjoy more being talked about and then trying to help make sure someone he supports gets in. And I don't quarrel with JVL that he sincerely, I guess, is against our involvement in, in wars in the Middle east, especially if it's, if we're on the side of Israel, you know. So I don't think it's, there's some sincerity there, but I don't think there's a lot of accountability either in the sense that he's not offering to give back anything. So no, I, JVL wrote a piece a week or two ago about, you know, Trump still the president. Trump is still the most likely, in my view. Nominee. Well, I think maybe JVL said he was the second most likely to be the nominee in 2028 and his son will be the most likely. But it's basically the same argument that the Trump Trump is not letting himself or his family lose the presidency with any or at least doesn't want to. And I did, actually a conversation you'll like this, Katie, with A.B. stoddard, whom you know today, which will be up tomorrow, where she really has a real grasp, I've got to say, of Trump's psyche in a way that I certainly don't. I've never been very interested in the psychological side of Trump. I'm just interested in like, he's a horrible threat to our democracy and all that. But she just thinks he could not stand being in the White House in 27, 2028 and watching everyone else run for president. And he's the sideshow as people go through Iowa and New Hampshire and he will not hand over the party to anyone except himself or his son. And plus he has practical reasons, the massive corruption and so forth that he can't afford to have someone he doesn't totally trust in there. Plus, he loves being president and he doesn't want to give it up, but he doesn't think he should give it up. And he's talked to himself, who knows what he really believes about the election, but he thinks he deserves he doesn't care anyway that the Constitution says he shouldn't have a third term.
- [08:25]
Katie
I was going to say, but whoa, whoa, whoa, timeout. He can't run. I mean, I know Steve Bannon has said he could.
- [08:32]
Bill Kristol
Really? Who's going to stop him?
- [08:34]
Katie
What scenario can Donald Trump.
- [08:35]
Bill Kristol
What scenario is he gets friendly state chairman. I'll let JVL talk to us. He gets friendly Republican state chairman to put him on the ballot. He gets drafted. So, you know, this is democracy. The 22nd Amendment is a little ambiguous anyway, but it wasn't a consecutive term. And anyway, that was a long time ago. It's a lot of other stuff in the Constitution that's been overtaken by events. I'm not going to stop my people from drafting me. And I don't know, maybe they'll get a case to the Supreme Court. Maybe the Supreme Court will kick him off the ballot. Maybe not. Certainly not if they can delay the case that he's gotten some votes already from Republican voters in some key states. So I don't know. I worry that he could pull it off. Yeah.
- [09:09]
Katie
What do you think jbl.
- [09:11]
JVL (Joe Villa)
So this, I've been ringing this bell now for years, and people, people said I was an insane person. And maybe I am fair. I mean, you know, I'm open to the possibility. But it would go like this. Trump would say the 22nd Amendment is really about consecutive terms. I didn't have consecutive terms. Also, I was cheated. Therefore, I'm entitled to this. And the key is that he gets party chairman to get him on the ballot and he gets to a vote before the case gets to the Supreme Court. Because once people have voted in Iowa or in New Hampshire, I think there will be two votes on the court, no matter what to say, yes, he should be allowed to run. I think it becomes more easier to find those other three votes if votes have already been cast. And I would say this just based on what we saw with the 14th Amendment. So, I mean, the, the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment is as clear as day. And the Supreme Court was absolutely unwilling to enforce it because they thought that that would be getting in the way of democratic legitimacy. They were like, well, there's a remedy. If voters don't want an insurrectionist, they can just not vote for insurrectionists. And so we're going to invent a test here for how this is supposed to work, because we don't want to touch it. I think it's, I think it's a long shot for Trump. Like, if you were betting money, would, would the court invalidate the 22nd amendment to allow him to run? I think you probably want odds on it, but it's not like a million to one shot.
- [10:48]
Bill Kristol
But also, if I can, what if, what if the court doesn't validate it? I don't think it's 100% certain that Donald Trump says, oh, Supreme Court has spoken. Oh, I must say this is a total violation of our democracy. My people want me. Who are these people who. Unelected people who are betraying me and betraying the voters I'm running. Let them stop me. I mean, we can have a gen. Right,
- [11:11]
JVL (Joe Villa)
but, but I do think that. So Don Jr. This is my other. I wrote about this week. Don Jr. Whenever he is included on, on polling, he's been polling in second place. Like, this is a guy, he's basically invisible. He's not out campaigning, he's not talking about it. He is an absolutely. A viable candidate in a way that, like Eric Trump is not. Don Jr very craftily, starting in 2017, while Ivanka Trump was inside the White House trying to do policy and be a grown up. Don Jr. Realized that the, the path forward within the Trump dynasty was actually just to go on to Fox and become a guy who understands how to play to the president's base. And he's beloved. He's like a mascot for the, the Trump lifestyle brand. And so I, I think that again, if Trump feels like he, he doesn't want to go through the election or feels, you know, he's talked into believing, well, it's really too much of a long shot. The way to do it is you use Don. And the upside for that is if Don wins the nomination but loses the general election, you then preserve four more years of sort of graft and bribery for the Trump family, because for four more years after that, Don is the presumed front runner for 2032. And all this is about preserving access.
- [12:37]
Katie
I mean, honest.
- [12:38]
Bill Kristol
Follow the logic of it.
- [12:39]
JVL (Joe Villa)
The center for American Progress.
- [12:42]
Katie
I'll be right back.
- [12:43]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Okay. Center for American Progress keeps track of the, like, the outright gifts, not the paper, not the increase in paper value of like Trump's, you know, fake media company and stuff, but the actual number of dollars that he has gotten. And since I think it's since December, before he was inaugurated, they've pocketed a little more than $2 billion. The Trump family has. This is very real money.
- [13:10]
Katie
JBL, some people are saying 4 billion.
- [13:13]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Yeah, well, that's when you do all the other. The paper. Right. So this is what I'm saying. Like, it's probably more than that, but the lowest, like the most Conservative estimate is 2 billion. And that's so far. We've got another two and a half years. And so if you're them, you look at this, and this is all because, you know, people, especially foreign governments, know that it is valuable to have a line into the White House, especially when the White House is for sale. Why would they give that up? If you're the Trump family, Like, is there anything in our history with these people that suggests that they would voluntarily give up access to vast flows of money?
- [13:53]
Katie
I want to, and we'll talk like, if this were to come, if this were to come to pass, you know, right now he is not very popular. Right. I mean, it's a long way to 2028. We'll talk about his poll numbers in a moment. But I wanted to ask you guys about the whole Tucker Carlson defection. You know, I'm curious because you all sort of occupied this world at one point. What is happening to sort of the conservatives or, you know, right wing media, right wing supporters, whether you're Talking about Marjorie Taylor Greene, Megyn Kelly, Alex Jones, Candace Owens, you know, all these people who are kind of abandoning Donald Trump. And meanwhile, you have Ben Shapiro right on the other side. And is this bill all about Israel?
- [14:49]
Bill Kristol
I think some. A lot of it is about Israel. Some of it's about his poll numbers going down and people thinking, I'm not so sure my future. I need to be quite as yoked to him as I thought. Some of it is about, I guess, you know, actual foreign policy issues and. Or just personal insults and so forth. I. It's hard to tell. I mean, these movements, these autocratic movements are. Are often unstable. I mean, we think of them as being, you know, very well organized. And some people, like Orban's was pretty well organized for quite a while in Hungary. But a lot of them are just chaotic. There's a whole bunch of people who want to be the big shot who then get in fights with other people who want to be the heir or the successor or the number one grafter as opposed to the number three grafter. And so this is what happens in a movement like this, especially when Trump's getting a little old, the succession's uncertain, his numbers are going down, and so people are jockeying for positions. So I think some of it's sincere in terms of issues, and a lot of it is what happens to an autocratic movement, which makes it a little weaker, but also in some ways more dangerous. Right. Because they can get parts of it get radicalized, and people start making a bid to, I'm the true Arab is I really want to just crush the left and send the troops in, and I'm for martial law until mid-2020. You know, one of them is going to stand up in mid-2028 and say, we can't afford to have this election. The Democrats are traitors and they might win, so we need martial law. And then suddenly that person is, you know, the. The heir of some part of the Trump policy. So I've been a little radicalized by JVL and by talking to AB Stoddard and just thinking about. I just, psychologically, Donald Trump, he loves being president. It's the best thing he's ever done. It satisfies to the degree anything can, his incredible need and narcissism and megalomania and all these things. And I guess the more I've thought about it, actually JVL was very early on this. I was. I was close to him, but I wasn't quite there. But the more I've thought about it the more struck I am that they are not giving this up. Not only, not easily, but without quite a big struggle. Whether it's a struggle for the nomination or a struggle even after the nomination. Third party kind of craziness. Right. That's not impossible. Or struggle not to have a free and fair election. I just think that's, for me that's key here.
- [16:55]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Let me ask you both. Yeah. Can I ask you guys both this question because I am curious about it. There is a sizable elite media defection away from Trump. Right. I mean the people like Tucker, people like Alex Jones, people like which I'm sorry, are now the elite media when it comes to the Republican Party.
- [17:16]
Katie
Megyn Kelly.
- [17:17]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Megyn Kelly. And Ken is backing away, but we are not seeing that mirrored in his poll approval numbers with Republican voters. He's had some erosion.
- [17:29]
Bill Kristol
Yeah.
- [17:29]
JVL (Joe Villa)
With Republican voters and like it's real, you can see it, but it's still reasonably small. I think he's low 80s approval with, you know, generic public. He has, I forget there's one filter they use where he's like, I have 100% approval from MAGA, you know, which is like a screen of if you have a Donald Trump tattoo on your face, do you approve of the president? And with those people he's 100%. But his standing with Republicans is still quite secure. And I, you know, I look at this and I do wonder if you are in the MAGA media space and you're. Tucker, Candace is a special case, I think because she is sort of a more of a mainstream type person who's like speed. Her audience seems to be more crankish than purely political. But if you're purely MAGA politics, are their audiences going to stay with these, these guys if they, I mean if, if Tucker and Megyn Kelly and Alex Jones like really do go full anti Trump, you know, like true Trumpism has never been tried. Even if they do it from the right, will their audiences stay with them? I don't, I don't know that that's a foregone conclusion and we're gonna see. But that's my question for you guys. Like where do you, where do you think the actual people are going to be on this?
- [18:48]
Katie
Well, I mean, doesn't it take a while, Bill, to have a trickle down effect? I mean polls usually lag sort of what's happening in current events. So I wouldn't, I would be on the lookout, honestly. You know, with the war in Iran, with Tucker Carlson with some of these people, with the fight with the Pope with the language that Trump has been using on True Social, I wouldn't be surprised. What the hell do I know, you guys? But if they're started to see, if we started to see some erosion among Republicans for Trump, I mean, I just don't think it's, I think it's going to have an impact. I don't think it's going to be a non starter. I just think it takes a while for, for this. And Tucker just said this yesterday. Right. So, you know, I don't know whether their audiences will stay with them. I'm not sure. I think they are connected. They have this parasocial relationship with them and I think they, they feel a sense of loyalty. So I don't know what's going to happen to the audience, but I wouldn't be surprised if this didn't impact Republican voters. What do you think, Bill?
- [19:58]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Yeah, Bill, is this like, is this like January 6th? Because remember after January6, Fox got a little squirrely and started trying to back away from Trump and their numbers dropped out and they pivoted back hard. No, got to be on Team Trump here.
- [20:16]
Bill Kristol
I don't know, obviously, and I mean, so much depends on what happens in the real world. If we have a real recession because of the tariffs and because of the war. I think that's a very different world than where the economy chugs along adequately and he backs out of the war without too much damage or too much obvious damage and so forth. So I really, I think it's very hard to say, I agree with Katie, that there is this kind of trickle down or delayed effect often. But I also just say those 82% of the Republicans or whatever, they're still thinking they're still with Trump. The 48% people here in Virginia were still with, you know, okay with the Republicans. I mean, it's a little complicated to be dishing and stuff like that. But basically they weren't, they didn't feel strongly enough to desert Trump. The Republicans stuck with him. So the party loyalty remains very strong. And look, these people are influential. But how influential? 77 million people voted for Trump. What does Tucker get to 3 million, 4 million people? Maybe another 1, 2 or 3 million for Alex Jones. You could have an authoritarian movement that has 10 million people who are, quote, true believers who are very upset that Trump is not coming through on key things. But the other 60 or 70 million are still like, you know what, he's fighting the left and the economy. I mean, this is where it does depend on reality. He was helped so much by the economy being pretty good or feeling like it was pretty good, or he was able to convince people it was pretty good for most of his first term and then managed to blame the last year on Covid. That, I think, is really crucial. Reality will matter for some chunk of those voters out there.
- [21:43]
JVL (Joe Villa)
So can we, Bill, we're so hot right now. America is the hottest country ever. Didn't you know, everybody's talking about how hot we are?
- [21:51]
Katie
Very hot. Can we talk about Iran and what is going on there, you guys? You know, whether it's Maggie Haverman and Jonathan Swan of the New York Times or this article in the Wall Street Journal, behind Trump's public bravado on the war, he grapples with his own fears. I'm curious, I mean, just give me your perspective on what is happening with this war, because honestly, I've been following it ish. And I'm just. I'm so confused,
- [22:27]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Bill.
- [22:28]
Bill Kristol
I mean, he got into it because he thought it would be Venezuela again. I think that's pretty clear from what we've. From evidence. He thought it'd be quick and easy. And he liked. He loved, you know, he was against foreign intervention. And then it turned out it's kind of great to be on Big, Big, Big guy on the world stage. He always liked being a big guy on the world stage. He was never truly an America first person. It was like, I don't care. He wanted to be a big shot. Then it turned out using that military with Hegseth there and sort of, he could race the military in a way Mattis and Esper really wouldn't let him do in the first term. You know, he gets to be the guy with the military. That goes way back in Trump's personal life. He didn't serve, obviously, but, you know, he always had that kind of fascistic, if we could be honest, love of sort of a cartoon version of the military. Right. So he loved all that and he thought this would be Venezuela. Then he was shocked that it wasn't. He should have stopped it, obviously gotten out after three days and declared victory, but he didn't. Then the Strait of Hormuz got closed pretty quickly, and suddenly it's like reality, and the other side gets a vote and the economy starts to get affected. Then the bombing is supposed to bring them to their knees, but it didn't. And then it turns out they have some more assets, and it's not so easy to even get the ceasefire and wiggle out that way, because Iran now feels its oats a little bit. And they're deciding to make Trump pay a price. And they want to make remind everyone that they can control the strait when they want to. I still think we get it ends. I still think we get a ceasefire. We get something like what people are now expecting, which is sort of a fake deal where Trump has some ability to say that he, I don't know, has some guarantee that the nuclear program is set back a bit. And they have, you know, destroyed a fair amount of Iranian missiles and killed a lot of Iranian leaders and a lot of Iranian people. But at the end of the day, the Iranian regime is there and it's a big, huge defeat for us, I believe, in terms of the world as a whole, our alliance structure, the Middle east, reliability of the US not keeping the strait open, abandoning the principle of freedom of the seas and so forth. But Trump maybe can wiggle out of it. I don't know. It's hard for me to. And obviously. But with final point, though, you made the point about the Journal, the Journal piece in particular was striking. The account of how the senior military officials kept Trump out of key meetings, out of a key operational meeting when they were rescuing the airmen because they thought he was so erratic. They didn't want him there reacting to every little thing. I mean, that I don't know. I wonder how much internally they really are worried about him and whether that affects the military's willingness to do things that they've sort of swallowed hard but gone along with blowing up these boats without any evidence that the people on them are actually enemy combatants. And even if they are smuggling drugs, that doesn't mean we can just blow them up. But they went along with that. They went along with this war. General Kane is swallowing hard and going along with standing next to Pete Hegseth there at the Pentagon. I don't know. I wonder what's going on internally after this. But I guess my instinct, I could totally be wrong, is that this war kind of comes to an end, that Trump gets to bloviate about and gets to get out of it, basically. But final point, I believe that his one lesson would be a normal person's lesson would be, ew, maybe I was right about staying out of these Middle east wars and kind of staying out of wars. And I'll go back to demagoguing immigration and being and making money, but I don't think so. I think in that respect, he's had a taste of the blood. And I think Cuba Greenland. I think he wants successful foreign adventures. And especially if his polls Numbers are going down. He thinks that's the way to do it. So I'm very worried that we're going to have more illegal and unconstitutional wars led by a commander in chief who's erratic and totally reckless and irresponsible and maybe with, unfortunately, senior aides, maybe even the military going along with more stuff
- [26:02]
Katie
than they should, even if it costs him significant support among Republican voters.
- [26:08]
Bill Kristol
Well, but Cuba will be pop, you know, if, if he can do it like Venezuela, it'll be at least mildly popular. It didn't, but I, He. I think at this point, he's not thinking about voters. I mean, he's, you know, he's sort of beyond that in a way. He's not calculating. Am I gaining 2% of losing 2%. He's got an image of himself in his mind. It has to do with the Triumphal Arch and the ballroom and the whole. Everything like that. Vaguely. He assumes that if he can pull all this off by 2028, he convinced everyone that we're the hottest country in the world and that we're great. If he can't pull it off, who knows? Then he might have to try a coup or he'll just take the money and run and go to, you know, Saudi Arabia or something. But. But he. Or I guess they here. But he. You know, I don't think the normal political kind of constraints are working quite the way they would with every other president we've seen.
- [26:54]
Katie
But don't you think that so many people at the Pentagon feel. I mean, I used to cover the Pentagon back in the day, and I talked to a lot of Pentagon reporters. But you have to think, well, you know, he fires the Secretary of the Army. And you've got to imagine there's so much of the leadership that is going holy. What is going on with this guy, from the stuff he posts on true social to his impulsivity when it comes to actually, you know, starting this war in the first place without really weighing, you know, all the different potential outcomes and, you know, not even really considering the economic impact of climate change, closing the street of Hormuz. I mean, you've got to imagine most military people, who are obviously real patriots, understand military strategy, care deeply about sort of the code of conduct, right, about the military. They have to be shaking their heads and saying, this is insanity, don't you think? I mean, and they've got Pete Heath, you know, waging this holy war and quoting Pulp Fiction, and, you know, what. What are they going to do? I mean, they must. I would love to be a fly on the wall. Now they won't even let journalists be flies on the walls at the Pentagon. But I would love to to really get an honest appraisal of him as commander in chief from career military people who've got to be super alarmed about the way he's prosecuting this war and conducting himself.
- [28:31]
Bill Kristol
I mean, I'll just say one quick thing and then I want to hear from jvl. I mean, I've heard this from people too who are in or near the Pentagon that there are a lot of these old senior. The general officers are very unhappy. You know, on the other hand, the civilian control of the military is deeply ingrained. They've spent 30 years being taught this. It's a good thing for this country 95% of the time that they believe deeply in the civilian control of the military. I think it's really led them though, not to push back as much as some of them might have. And a lot of people have been fired and a lot of other people have been intimidated and a lot of people, you know, it's not so easy to give up after 28 years and you're on the cusp of real, really high position in the military just to sort of walk away. And, and they have, they've in that respect, Trump and Heg Seth have been smart in all the firings and stuff. So and they're promoting people who are more susceptible to their view of the world. So I think it's a mixed bag, but I know, I think there's a lot of unhappy. I think if he tries to do we could have a genuine constitutional crisis. We could have the entire Joint Chiefs say, I'm sorry, we're not doing that, we're resigning. And the next tier could then resign and then Trump promotes Hegseth promotes it one star to be a four star. I'm making this up, but you know what I mean, you could have a genuine. I think it's such an. I agree with your instinct, Katie, which is it's a very unstable, beneath a sort of surface. It's a very unstable situation. Jvl, what do you think?
- [29:48]
JVL (Joe Villa)
We did have the military push back against Trump for the first time last week. So I mean, Trump announced that, you know, he announced on Truth Social he said we are closing the Strait of Hormuz or blockading the Strait of Hormuz. That would have been a violation of international law. And so a lot of people are like, we're doing what now? Hold on. How we're not allowed to do that, and Centcom waited. I think it was two days or three days. And then CENTCOM finally clarified, no, no, no, no, no, no. We're blockading Iranian ports. We are not blockading the strait. You can blockade ports of a belligerent country as an act of war. It's not a special military operation, though it is. It is an act of actual. The legal definition of war, and that's what we're doing. And Trump has continued to say publicly that we're blockading the strait, but we're not like this. It's this weird. And maybe it's like a distinction without a difference to most people, but it does seem to be important to me that the military has said the president can say that we're blockading whatever he wants to, but that would be illegal. And we're not doing that. We're blockading the ports of Iran.
- [30:58]
Bill Kristol
And I heard secondhand that the jags, incidentally, whose ranks have been decimated by Trump, and he's getting more. So he's got a few friendly ones, probably. Even so, they took targets off the list that Trump and Hegseth wanted for the bridges and the electric power and so forth. The stuff that really was civilian or primarily civilian. Now, presumably, Trump isn't going over that list. So I think there is a little. I agree there is more pushback. It's just hard to know if that ever breaks through. Does someone emerge who's kind of a leader, who's a Mark Milley type? Mark Milley in 2020, was willing to. In December of 2020, when Trump was plotting his coup and getting ready, you know, trying to do what we saw the visible side of. In January 6th, Mark Milley was privately talking, and this has been reported to former secretaries of defense and to others, about what do we do? What do we do if he really tries to call out the troops here and stop and stay in the White House? And I don't know that. I don't think Kaine is probably quite doing that, but you don't know what's happening. But it didn't get much. Any press at the time, I don't think. So These things, these guys can't act discrete. And I think. But I think they're anguished. A lot of them, they really do believe in civilian control. They really don't. They feel like they can do some good by staying there, which I don't disagree with. They feel that this is their institution. They've devoted their whole life to it from age 21. I mean, you know, what the Military is like, Katie, it's different from our world. I mean, this is what they've spent their lives doing. And the idea of we need to preserve it, we need to defend it. If we could get through these next two and a half years, we'll give it over to the next president in a responsible way. And we have to, we have to kind of bite hard and just suck it up here when this jackass Hegseth does his thing for now, and we'll call it the Department of War for a while. And, I mean, I think there's a lot of anguish over there, though.
- [32:43]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Bill, my theory, and I'm curious what you think about this, is that the unbelievable ineptitude at the strategic level in this war must have hurt Trump's standing among senior officers and even senior officers who might have been inclined to be with, you know, they don't like the woke stuff. You know, they, they, the dei, you know, they're, they're not Trumpy, but they don't like the DEI they must have watched. I mean, they're, they're seeing the same things we are, but more of it and closer up. And the erratic prosecution of this war and the unbelievable just, you know, tackling and blocking stupidity at the strategic level from the President and Commander in chief, that must be making an impression on them, don't you think?
- [33:32]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, I think so, yeah.
- [33:34]
JVL (Joe Villa)
So in a weird way, I think that makes us a little safer. Like, I think the, the senior ranks of the military that the experience of this war has probably anybody who might have been inclined to go along with the strong man, I think probably has second thoughts of it, having watched just again, the, even the, the ceasefire, the on, again, off again. Right. You know, so Trump gets this ceasefire, which is a huge giveaway to Iran. It was always going to have to be a huge giveaway to Iran. There was no avoiding it. And instead of just taking his medicine and getting the deal done, he went and tried to renegotiate it. And so the ceasefire falls apart. We're going to have to now renegotiate it. And we will renegotiate it, but it'll be on terms that are worse for us than it would have been 10 days ago, 11 days ago. And so I agree with you, Bill. I think the ultimate end of this is not escalation, but we get to some sort of deal and the Iranians wind up just strategically much more secure they become. They go from being a pariah state to being a middle power, and they have become incredibly useful to China. China, through their relationship with Iran, will now control the Strait of Hormuz and control the flow of all oil to that hemisphere and that side of the world, which enhances China's power over its neighbors.
- [34:58]
Katie
Isn't it, isn't it going to inspire them to, to build up their nuclear capability? You know, it might have the, A negative, you know, the opposite effect of what everybody is.
- [35:12]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Yeah, I think it'll be hard to stop. I, I really do think it's over the long term. It is going to be very, very difficult.
- [35:18]
Bill Kristol
I mean, I'd say the only counter. Yeah, Israel's gonna try to stop it, and they've been pretty good at it, I'd say, or at least delay it. And secondly, it is an unstable regime. So I think my only caveat to the way you put it, jvl, is that that assumes it's kind of a stable middle power that's growing, you know, kind of India or something, becoming stronger as it moves forward. But it's, it's kind of a mess. And so I, I really. It could, you know, it could blow up in all kinds of different ways that could be even more dangerous, incidentally. I mean, you could have a lot of chaos in the middle. I mean, who knows what the world's going to look like so six months from now. But I agree. And China's been a big, a big winner. Russia is something of a winner, though. Again, that country's such a mess that Ukraine is doing so well now. It seems like that Putin must be both. It's both very strong, but also weak underneath. It's a very chaotic and uncertain world out there. The one thing we know is that the 80 years of the US being a fairly reliable anchor of the post World War II order, both in terms of economics, but also geopolitics and strategy and security. That's over, I think, and I think it's God knows what.
- [36:16]
JVL (Joe Villa)
And would you agree that there's no going back to that, Bill? Yeah, I mean, I don't.
- [36:20]
Bill Kristol
There are ways to reconstruct a version of it. I would say maybe the next president, but very hard to go back.
- [36:26]
Katie
Different leadership. Do you think that any of these. I would. I think they can be repaired with different leadership, but I think it all depends on who's in charge and, you know, how reliable that partner is. But.
- [36:41]
JVL (Joe Villa)
So let me try to talk you out of that, Katie.
- [36:43]
Katie
Very specific, this NATO alienation.
- [36:47]
JVL (Joe Villa)
So I would try to talk you out of it by saying that maybe after Trump won, the rest of the world could have Said, yeah, okay, well, everybody can screw up once. The Americans didn't understand what they were doing. And, but, but we did it twice now. And I feel like if you're doing long range strategic planning for your country, no matter who you are, whether you're Japan or South Korea or you are an EU country or hell if you're the Chinese. Right. Trying to figure out what you're going to do, you can't make your plans on the hope that America won't do it a third time. Right. I mean, this is, what's the line? There's some French minister who's like, you know, our security cannot be hostage to 40,000 people in Wisconsin every four years. And that's. Right. Like this is, this is a problem of the American people. This is a problem of what America is and who America is. And we've proven ourselves unreliable and the rest of the world can't unsee that.
- [37:46]
Bill Kristol
Yeah. I mean, the only thing we have going is that it's not so easy for them to liberate themselves from us in terms of their security. And so they'll go slow. And they are going slow in doing that. They're doing it, we're doing it, but they're doing it carefully and trying to keep NATO going as long as it can. And maybe if, you know, if. And incidentally, I very much agree that JBL made a point in passing quickly, which I think it's important to dwell on. Think if Iran had gone very well for Trump and think if Orban had won then, then you're in a world, I think, where the pro am, the pro NATO forces in Europe, it's not like Europe doesn't have Trumpy movements in France, in Germany and so forth. Trumpy is little. What, you know, they don't come from Trump illiberal analogous to Trump. They would be incredibly strong. I think Orban's defeat plus Trump's in effect defeat in Iran has been very good, actually, in the sense of if you're now a centrist European, pro democracy European, you think, you know what, maybe not all the wind is. And also the fact that Ukraine is doing okay, maybe the wind isn't entirely at their back and maybe it actually strengthens Katie's point a little that maybe they think, okay, maybe we can make it through these next two and a half years. Zelensky hangs on places like Hungary. We get momentum in a good way in central Europe and the Americans come to their senses. But I agree doing it twice was very, very big mistake of the American people.
- [39:06]
Katie
I Asked you guys about just a couple areas I want to cover before, before we wrap tonight. Tonight, you know, you were talking about poll numbers and the Republican Party still kind of staying behind Trump. But I wanted to read some of these Reuters Ipsos poll numbers. His approval rating remains at 36% with 62% disapproving majority of Americans, including some Republicans questioning his temperament. The poll showed many Americans, including some members of Trump's Republican Party, have some concerns about the 79 year old President's temperament and mental sharpness following a series of explosive outbursts. I'm assuming they're talking about truth social. Some 51% of Americans, including 14% of Republicans, 54% of independents and 85% of Democrats said Trump's mental sharpness has gotten worse over the past year. You have Jamie Raskin wanting to invoke the 25th Amendment. You know, talk about the poll numbers and what you're seeing here and the erosion of support and sort of this skepticism and concern about his mental, about his faculties really, they're bad.
- [40:21]
Bill Kristol
I mean they're getting close to Nixon levels now in 74. And there was one poll, amazing that showed a majority of Americans want Trump to be impeached and removed from office, including quite a number of Republicans. If those Republicans are thinking they're kind of semi normie Republicans or even MAGA Republicans who aren't personally in the Trump cult, they're just thinking, well, why don't we just get JD Vance in there and we have much saner MAGA ish Republican ish administration. It's not a crazy view. You know, the, so I, I think the Trump's personal hold on the party has diminished some anyway. No, I think his numbers are bad and we'll see if they keep going down or not. And I do think it, it, this, it bodes poorly for the Republicans in the midterm election. So yeah, no, it's, it's pretty striking. I mean the public in this respect, I think the public erosion, it's been slow and frustratingly slow for some of us and it's a point a month or if that even from what is about a point a month now actually if you think about it, 15 months he's been in office and he's gone from 50 to not really quite the 35 probably in most polls, but certainly 38ish I'd say. So if that keeps going, then you really are at Nixon levels and then you, I think, I think you could these things just go slowly until they go quickly. And I don't know what point. It has not broken his hold on the Hill. Mike Johnson in the House. Republicans pretty much do what he wants. Four of them deserved, six of them desert. It's a headline. They pass something. But you know, it's, it's tiny. Same with, in the Senate side. I don't know. This is where I think the combination of the poll numbers going down and maybe a slowing economy and maybe a pretty visible defeat in Iran, we could hit something like a tipping point, I suppose.
- [41:56]
Katie
What do you think, jbl?
- [41:59]
JVL (Joe Villa)
I don't know. So the most interesting number I saw was yesterday, Bloomberg had the spot inflation on food and it was up. I'm just going to pull it up, make sure I don't get the number. 7.9% year over year for the month of March sits almost 8%. Food, food prices that will, that will show up soon in the rest of the numbers. So on the one hand, yes, I could see us maybe hitting a tipping point. On the other hand, I, I did make this mistake in Trump one. So I had thought about this time in 2018, he's going to get wiped out in the midterms and that is going to be the Republican Party's moment to abandon him. They'll say, we tried this experiment, it was a failure. We've got to wash this guy stink off of us and we've got to get rid of him and move on. And the opposite happened, right? The 2018 midterms were a tipping point and they were the tipping point at which the institutional Republican Party went from being conditionally with Trump to, to being fully on board all in, no matter what with Trump. Why, why wouldn't, I mean, I don't know.
- [43:16]
Bill Kristol
I mean, they held the Senate. That was very important. Remember they had that rally at the end with the confirmation of Kavanaugh and stuff.
- [43:22]
JVL (Joe Villa)
They may hold the Senate this time, too.
- [43:23]
Bill Kristol
That's why the Senate is the most important election this, this, this fall. I agree. If they hold the Senate, that happen, right? If they hold the Senate, it could happen. I think if he loses both houses, it's decided to. But I know, I think it's still more likely than not. It's more likely than not that if whoever, Let me put it this way. Do you not agree that if whoever Donald Trump endorses for president in 2028, let's just leave aside whether it's himself or Don Jr. Or maybe it is Vance, maybe he goes more in a way jbl and I don't, or Rubio, whoever he endorses is very likely to be the Republican nominee.
- [43:52]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Yes.
- [43:53]
Bill Kristol
Yeah. Trump restilled them up. So in that respect, I don't expect a desertion of Republican office holders from Trump, whether in the public, there's appreciable erosion. But also, and this is something, Katie, you, you know a ton about the media side of it and also some of the big private sector institutions, businesses, they are not deserting Trump yet. For me, that's really astonishing. Right? I mean, the public, whatever you think of the public, they've gone from 50% to 38%. Elite businesses, elite law firms, elite media. They haven't gone anywhere. There's, there's zero deserve. They, and look, they have practical reasons. You're running a big company. You got to get along with the Trump administration.
- [44:27]
Katie
They want merger approved, Bill.
- [44:29]
Bill Kristol
Right. They want a merger approved. They want this, they want that. Trump is so the ruthless exercise of the levers of power of the executive branch has stood, has done well. Trump has done well by that, and he's not relenting on that. Quite the contrary. Justice Department more aggressive than ever and going after everyone. More shameless than the merger stuff. Right. I mean, so I think that gives him an awful lot of power for an awful long time. Could that eventually break?
- [44:53]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Sure.
- [44:53]
Bill Kristol
But I think that, that that makes it stickier than just a pure, you know, public opinion referendum.
- [45:00]
Katie
Right. What about J.D. vance, you guys? I mean, has his standing gone down significantly? People are talking about, you know, the campaigning for Orban and, you know, taking on the Pope and saying the Pope, you know, doesn't understand theology. And now Dick Cheney, according to one poll, is more popular than J.D. vance, which made me smile when I knew I was talking to you, Bill. So I'm curious, I'm curious if you all feel that J.D. vance has his, his star is falling a little bit. And if it's, you know, if, if it's just a temporary thing.
- [45:38]
Bill Kristol
Jbl, what do you think?
- [45:39]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Is there anybody more loathsome in American politics than J.D. vance? I, I don't think there is. Honestly, I would take, I'll take Donald Trump over J.D. vance. I probably take Nick Fuentes over J.D. vance because again, these people authentically believe whatever they believe. At least you could say that J.D. is just, who knows? He's, he's, he's a horrific shapeshifter. I would say this. I do not. I think J.D. vance's life has become difficult because he saw himself as the bridge who could hold the far right, America Firsters together with the more traditional Republican types. And like With Tucker breaking up with Trump, that puts JD in a very awkward spot. Trump, Tucker's son, who was working for JD, has left JD's office. That strikes me as probably meaningful. On the other hand, JD was always playing an inside game. JD has never had popular support for anything. Right. His entire life has been being a supplicant to people with more power and getting them to give him things. It started with Amy Chua, and then it became Peter Thiel, and then it became Donald Trump. And in order for him to go to the next rung, which is to become president, he was going to need somebody else to bless him and give him that nomination. He was never going to be able to put together the popular support to go out and, like, win a primary election on his own. And so for him, it really is about persuading Trump not to run. Persuading. It was persuading Tucker not to run and persuading Don Jr. Not to run. And so with, if those three were out and Trump laid hands on him, then he could be the nominee and he would just roll the dice in general election. You know, maybe you win, maybe you don't. It depends on a lot of external factors. I don't think that has changed. Like, his life is more uncomfortable. He is in a more ludicrous position publicly, but he's always been in a ludicrous position. I mean, he is a laughingstock and has been among serious people for many, many years. At this point, it's just a little more so. But strategically, it hasn't changed what he needs to happen in order to wind up becoming president someday, because he was never going to be able to command a popular movement on his own. That's my view. I don't know, Bill.
- [48:06]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, mostly I think that's a good analysis. I just wouldn't. It sort of depends. Are we in normal politics or are we in post normal politics? In normal politics, an incumbent, if incumbent vice presidents usually get the nomination if they want it. I mean, George H.W. bush had a rough beginning of the second term with Reagan. The Reaganites didn't like him, but the people who were anti Reagan didn't quite like him. And he was a wimp because he, he was going along with Reagan. And then at the end of the day, Reagan sort of blessed him. And anyway, he won a couple of key primaries, defeated Dole and Kemp and got the nomination. And then he won Reagan's third term, as it were. And I like George H.W. bush. I'm not being denigrating him here. I Just that was the practical realities of it. And maybe people I know who are more traditional think this is. At the end of the day, the rules of politics come back. Trump was weird, but Vance probably is the nominee because he bridges the sort of normie ish establishment, such as it is, and maga. But I don't know. I don't know the other thing, just on this whole poll thing, I mean, the degree to which these tech pros, but generally the Republican billionaires are powerful is really something. We haven't really seen this in a long time in American politics. And it's not true in the Democratic Party. They have plenty of billionaires and I know some of them and some of them have some power, but. But they're not actually very powerful. And they don't think the same way. They don't even think they should. They think they should support someone they like and of course they should, like, nudge them to do certain things. And it probably means that the party is more pro AI than it should be because some of their big donors are pro AI and so forth. That it should be politically at least, and I think substantively too, but. But it doesn't. The Republican billionaires have a totally different attitude, especially the MAGA ish billionaires and the tech billionaires. And so I don't know, when we talk about the Republican Party, are we talking about voters? Are we talking about 50 unbelievable heavyweights and what they decide? You know, it is. It's not quite a normal political party in the way we think of it.
- [49:59]
Katie
I think that's depressing. And you're talking.
- [50:04]
Bill Kristol
That's us, man. You know, get someone cheerful. Get someone cheerful on Next Week and
- [50:10]
Katie
Mark Zuckerberg's and talking about that cohort.
- [50:15]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Yeah, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, right?
- [50:18]
Katie
Yeah, yeah.
- [50:19]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Marc Andreessen. I mean, you have a bunch of these, like, very weird guys and they've internalized it.
- [50:24]
Bill Kristol
You know, they love the power. I think that's another thing. Look, everyone likes being flattered and courted and stuff. And I did it a little bit when I was in. In politics and in government, you know, and stuff. You're nice to these people who are powerful, but the Republican stuff, it's sort of out of control. And the MAGA stuff and the. And the flooring in it, the conspicuous consumption, to say the least. There's a good piece about Bezos wasn't there. I saw this somewhere. I haven't really read all of it, but you know what he was like.
- [50:50]
JVL (Joe Villa)
I saw that in my newsletter.
- [50:51]
Bill Kristol
Okay. Was that. Okay, what he was like in 2018, as opposed to now? Someone who went to a. Yeah. And that he was still like a normal.
- [50:57]
Katie
Wasn't that.
- [50:58]
JVL (Joe Villa)
It was in the Atlantic.
- [50:59]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, it was like he was a normal, per. Normal rich person. I mean, he was kind of, you know, but it was a normal. And now it's just a different planet. I really feel that way.
- [51:08]
Katie
He went to his, like, weekend or his, you know, conference. He had. Yeah, yeah. That was a funny article. And then his. His wife broke her wrist. Right. And.
- [51:18]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Yeah. And he and his kids got footmouth and mouth disease.
- [51:21]
Katie
Yeah. Basically walked away when he told him what had happened to his wife. Like, not one scintilla of empathy, just kind of basically like. Okay, see, it was a. It was weird. All right, we got a couple more things just to cover, and then I'm going to let you guys go. But let's talk about my home state of Virginia. Bill, you live in Northern Virginia, right?
- [51:41]
Bill Kristol
Right.
- [51:41]
Katie
Okay. So this redistricting as. Just as we were going to go live, a Virginia judge blocked the state from certifying the results of Tuesday's congressional map referendum, deeming the referendum and the bill that triggered it as unconstitutional. According to the judge's order issued Wednesday, Virginia's current attorney general, Jay Jones, confirmed that his office would appeal the decision. Why don't you just review what happened, Bill, yesterday in Virginia? And obviously, it's all a part of this tit for tat redistricting battle that started in Texas and then in California, and then Republicans followed suit in North Carolina and other states. And so now Virginia got a lot more congressional districts that would favor the Democrats.
- [52:28]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Right.
- [52:28]
Bill Kristol
And in Virginia, there was a constitutional Amendment, actually in 2020 that established a nonpartisan commission to do this, and it passed by 2 to 1. And I remember voting for it. And they actually did a good job. And they set up 11. Their 11 districts, they split six to five in the most recent election, Democratic over Republican, which is kind of the split of the state, you know, and the districts were contiguous and tried to keep communities together. They had various, like, political science criteria. They tried to follow these. They were actually literally political scientists and those types who arrange these districts under the supervision of the legislature and the court. But once Texas, once Texas and other already gerrymandered state legislatures decided, we're going to follow Trump's wishes and gerrymander further. Gerrymander. Our congressional delegation, Newsom in California said, no, no, no.
- [53:15]
Katie
Middle of a cycle. We should say in the middle of
- [53:17]
Bill Kristol
a cycle where it doesn't that's supposed to happen. California. California also had to go to the. Because they Democrats, these being Democratic states, they actually had movements in the last decade or two to try to go to nonpartisan redistricting. This is a good idea, in fact, in principle. And so Newsom went to the ballot in November. They won easily. And they're redistricting a similar situation. Virginia, you have to get a popular vote here. It was closer, considerably closer for a couple of reasons. I mean, it was just that people would prefer not to have these districts gerrymandered the way they're going to be. They are a little weird. They go all the way from, you know, Northern Virginia all the way 75 miles down to central Virginia in order to create the most Republican, distribute the voters most efficiently. A lot of voters in central Virginia actually weren't real happy being shoved into districts where they're going to be a minority of the district, the representatives, most of the districts in Northern Virginia, in terms of population, the representatives likely to be from Northern Virginia. And so there was, I think Democrats or the pro referendum people lost a little vote, some votes down there, you know, Charlottesville in that area, which, you know. Well, a little didn't turn out quite as well for the Democrat for the referendum as they might have. And Northern Virginia came out big and it passed by about three and a half points. I think the courts will ultimately uphold it. I think it will move three or four seats. It will help mean the whole redistricting thing that Trump launched almost a year ago will end up being a net wash. For me, the biggest story is the Democrats swallowed hard. They didn't like doing this. They like nonpartisan redistricting. I give them credit for liking it. Incidentally, I think it's a good sign for the political, the pro democracy political movement that it was reluctant to do this in a way, you know, but they did it, which is also a good sign because you cannot sit on your hands and sort of wring your hands while the other party just goes about ruthlessly, you know, changing the rules in the middle of the cycle, as you said. So that's where we are. And I think, I think, I think we'll end up with more Democratic representatives from Virginia. Final point, the referendum is temporary. I mean, it's a four. It changes the situation for four years and then we go back in 2030 to a nonpartisan commission. So I think it's a reasonable way to deal with it on the part of Virginia.
- [55:29]
Katie
Didn't Eric Holder do a whole thing where they tried to pass legislation that prohibited gerrymandering.
- [55:36]
Bill Kristol
The House Democrats voted for legislation that would have prohibited the kind of gerrymandering we've seen. There's some issues about whether the federal government can actually do that, but Congress probably could actually. The president can't do it by himself, just like with mail in ballots and all that. Now, that passed the House Literally in 2021, in the Biden years, it didn't have 60 votes in the Senate and the Republicans were against it. So it's the Democrats, what everyone thinks of, you know, there's a little bit of, I don't know, changing views here or accommodating to reality is what I would say, which is a reasonable thing to do if you're a political party party. But to be fair to them, they, they passed this legislation when they had the majority in the house in 2021. And they aren't, they say they will pass it again if they get the White House and the Congress. So I think they've, but I give them credit. Look, I mean, Joe Villa has a good piece today, which you should talk about urging them to, you know, go further, as it were. But I, I give them credit for people think the Democrats are hapless, they won't fight. What did Robert Frost say? A liberal is someone who won't take his own side in a fight. And, and I think on this redistricting thing, which was a big, you know, card that Trump and the Republicans played, the Democrats stepped up. I think that's very important.
- [56:42]
Katie
You guys is, after all is said and done, it's a wash. Right. But it would have been catastrophic for the Democrats if they hadn't played the game.
- [56:50]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, it would have been bad for them in terms of numbers. And I think also psychologically, I think it would have been devastating. Jvl talk about the piece you wrote today that was excellent.
- [56:58]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Look, unilateral disarmament is not a path to peace. Right. I mean, and so when you have an illiberal party trying to displace American Democratic liberalism saying we in our states where we believe in liberal democracy are going to try to do good government and we will not gerrymander. And if, you know, we're just two wrongs, don't make it right. We're not going to do that. That is not helpful. The cause of liberalism, long term, you have to have deterrence. And I give Democrats a great deal of credit for the, as Bill said, this, this referendum in Virginia is sunset in four years. This is a proportional response to Republican Illiberal aggression. And Democrats, as Bill said, they passed in 2021 at the federal level. If Republicans don't like this, they should join the Democrats to pass a national ban on this practice, which would be good for America.
- [58:02]
Katie
I agree. And finally, are you guys going to the Neither of you will be at the White House Correspondents Dinner? I, I'm never again
- [58:12]
Bill Kristol
I haven't been in a while. Have you been. Do you go usually, Katie, or.
- [58:15]
Katie
No, no, I haven't been for, I mean I, I wouldn't go unless I were with a network. I think the last time I went, I think Yahoo News bought a table and I went with them. But after that, no, I haven't been because I mean sort of I'm an independent journalist now, so who would I go with?
- [58:37]
Bill Kristol
Well, the book. I'm sure someone, someone would take you somewhere. Well, we don't buy a table. It's never kind of shows how different it is, you know, than in our day. Katie, I will use. It was sort of interesting to go and fun and all that, but I mean it didn't, I don't think it's ever come up in a single discussion at the Bulwark that should we get a table or two at the White House? When we started the weekly standard in 1995 and JVL was there very young. JVL and we bought tables the first few years and it was kind of important to establish us as a, you know, reputable, you know, Washington magazine, of course you have to have a couple of tables, maybe even throw your own little reception or you certainly get yourself invited to the different receptions and so forth and parties as you recall. But it is not what it once was. I think the glory days were when you, when you, when you got all dressed up, Katie, and came to the White House Correspondents Dinner.
- [59:20]
Katie
Oh yeah. Well, they have a picture of me in 1979, my first white House correspondent's dinner when I was a desperate Senate ABC News. I know how embarrassing. I was a little heavy handed.
- [59:31]
JVL (Joe Villa)
You're adorable.
- [59:32]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, you are adorable.
- [59:35]
Katie
I went to Stems where an educated consumer is your best customer and bought our little dresses and honestly, it was such a big deal. I was so excited. I, I actually saw Jane Paulie out in the wild. I was so thrilled and, and they, they were fun for a while but honestly, I can't imagine the kind of freak show it's going to be this year. You've got this president who trashes the press, who insults reporters on a daily basis, especially female reporters. But really all reporters who has no respect for the First Amendment who you know, started the fake news moniker which I think has contributed to declining trust in the media. You've got a. I know. O's the mentalist who's coming. You know, I've gotten to know him a little bit. He's a great guy. But I guess Trump was terrified of having a comedian make fun of him the way remember, I mean I'll never forget I was at the one was
- [60:34]
Bill Kristol
I. I'm trying to remember if I was 2012, 2011. Is that the famous one where Obama
- [60:42]
Katie
and apparently was one of the motivating factors for him running for president. But I just, it's just so the incongruity of a room chock a block full of journalists and this guy who hates them and insults them and yet cross craves their approval. Right. It's like again that whole psychological weirdness, it is going to be so weird, isn't it? I mean I am interested in hearing what Trump says, aren't you?
- [61:15]
JVL (Joe Villa)
So I, I'm sorry, can I just rant for a moment?
- [61:19]
Katie
Yes, please, go for it.
- [61:21]
JVL (Joe Villa)
So I, I came to Washington desperate to work at the Weekly Standard, to work for Bill Kristol. I had grown up like I, you know, I grew. I was a nerd in seventh and eighth grade reading the New Republic and National Review, reading Chris Buckley novels the White House Mess. And I had this unbelievably romantic vision of Washington and I remember getting to go to the first White House correspondence center and it was amazing. It was magical, absolutely magical. You know, I, I snuck into the Vanity Fair after party pretending to be Fred Barnes. It was, it was amazing. And, and the Washington that existed back then really was the Washington of my dreams. Like everybody basically was on the same side. The conservatives and the liberals were fighting between all the cliches about the 40 yard lines were basically true. That world doesn't exist anymore and we, we are living through an authoritarian attempt. It is categorically different than it was prior to 2016. And I really judge, I try not to like everybody is, you know, alpha, living their own lives. I judge any journalist who's going to show up to this thing and pretend that it's just like the old days, that this is all normal and that, you know, oh, we're just joshing around with the President, the president's up there doing his things. You know, at the end of the day we can all have a, have a bourbon together because we're all on the same side. That's not, that's not the case. And anybody who's going to this thing is, is complicit in normalizing this and downplaying the very real risks that there are for the country and for liberal democracy. And so shame on you.
- [63:02]
Katie
Sorry, I'd be embarrassed.
- [63:04]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Puritanical.
- [63:05]
Katie
No, I, I, I, I hear you. I would be embarrassed. It's going to be so uncomfortable and so bizarre, you know, and with that, have a good time at the Bidens correspondence dinner.
- [63:19]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Skip the dinner. Just go to the parties.
- [63:20]
Katie
Yeah, Yeah. I don't know. The whole thing is, is, is. Yeah. You know, and in some ways, I feel like reporters deserve the good ones, the good ones to celebrate the work they're doing. But the New York Times doesn't go. Right. Because they think it's inappropriate to, to go. But there, there are, I don't, I, I imagine the Atlantic didn't buy a table. I can't imagine Jeffrey Goldberg is gonna go to that dinner.
- [63:45]
Bill Kristol
Well, as you know, Katie, I mean, there will be people who are there because their bosses told them to be there. Right. I mean, if the network's by a table and you're the Washington. If you're the White House for Pentagon correspondent for NBC, you can't really say, I'm not coming. In fact, you're supposed to show up. You're supposed to get a guest from the administration. I was in the Reagan and Bush administrations, and I wasn't the most important person, but even I got invited as a guest by, you know, people. It was fun. As JPL was saying, as you were saying, meet and mix and mingle with people you didn't know very well. And it was a social occasion, and it was. No, it was babysitter for the kids. You know, get out for an evening with your wife. It was nice. So.
- [64:20]
Katie
Yeah, but it was fun. It was fun, and there were interesting people to talk to, and it was a celebration of the First Amendment, right. They give these awards to journalists and the White House press corps, you know, they, the, the, our correspondence association actually does some good work, really? Journalists. But you're right, it's a very different time, and it's, I can't wait to read about it. I don't, I don't mind not going, but I can't. It's sort of like the Star wars bar, I think. I can't wait to see, like, all the bizarre stuff that happens here on Saturday night.
- [64:54]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Do you have a favorite memory from the correspondence dinner from your days, either of you, Katie?
- [65:02]
Katie
I mean, I just remember I just remember how fun it was just going to all the parties and seeing all the people and seeing Dan Rather and you know, all these people who I really looked up to and as I mentioned, Jane, Pauline kind of walking by and touching her dress because I was a freak and. But you know, you felt like you were part of something important, honestly when you went there and something good. Yeah. And it was, it just, it was fun. It was fun to get dressed up. It was fun to see sort of, you know, the ink stained wretches all dressed up in tuxedos. You know, as Mike Allen, I think coined the phrase the nerd prom. You know, it was just like a time where we felt like, like a part of a community that was doing good work and that also wanted to have fun and maybe celebrate itself a little bit. I don't know. And I just remember seeing George W. Bush like at a party and being like, hey, it's just so weird, right?
- [66:06]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, it's not, it doesn't. It's not. This is not our wash. It's not Washington anymore and it's not our politics anymore, honestly. And maybe it'll get back to it, you know, but five years from now we can all go and enjoy.
- [66:17]
Katie
And it was also fun, by the way, to see all the celebrities because for a while there, Bill. Right.
- [66:21]
JVL (Joe Villa)
They were all sorts of.
- [66:23]
Bill Kristol
Yeah. That began in 87, 88. So then you got the movie stars and the others. And that was always.
- [66:29]
JVL (Joe Villa)
I remember the Williams sisters were there one year, you know, and, or the, like the early in the American Idol craze. They were, you know, a bunch of people had been recently voted off from American Idol. The cast of the West Wing was there one year.
- [66:42]
Katie
Yeah. Julia Louis Dreyfus I think went one year.
- [66:45]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Heidi Klum, Christie Brinkley. I met Chris, I was with Matt labash and I met Christie Brinkley one year. And that was.
- [66:53]
Katie
Was it everything you dreamed it would be? And more.
- [66:55]
JVL (Joe Villa)
You know, it was. And yet my, my, my persistent memory is being unable to believe the size of her head. Christie Brinkley is a large headed person in a way that is, it was like small anim trapped in orbit around her head. It was just. She could blot out the sun, her hair.
- [67:18]
Katie
Because she is beautiful. I mean, she's insane.
- [67:20]
JVL (Joe Villa)
So beautiful.
- [67:21]
Bill Kristol
No, no.
- [67:21]
Katie
I saw her at a City Harvest event last night. So she's very fresh in my mind. And she's very tall and very beautiful.
- [67:29]
JVL (Joe Villa)
So tall. Oh my God. I don't mean like she didn't look, I don't mean that she looked like. But the combination of the hair and the head and the smile. Because also she had. Her mouth is, like, too big and she has too many teeth, like.
- [67:45]
Bill Kristol
Yeah, it's cute. I think it's time here, you know, it's okay. Well, you know what?
- [67:52]
Katie
Thank you for indulging me. Thank you for answering all my questions. This was really fun. I'll see you guys later. I can't wait to dish with you the morning after.
- [68:02]
Bill Kristol
Okay, good. Thanks. Thanks, Katie. That was great.
- [68:04]
Katie
All right, see you guys. Bye. Take care.
- [68:08]
Bill Kristol
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JVL (Joe Villa)
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Bill Kristol
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JVL (Joe Villa)
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Bill Kristol
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JVL (Joe Villa)
play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details. Hi, there we are. James and Dan. 2 thoughts of the Hit UK Podcast
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Bill Kristol
no such Thing as a Fish.
- [69:15]
JVL (Joe Villa)
Each week we get around the microphones with our four favorite facts that we've learned over the last seven days and sit down to blow each other's minds. Yeah, here's a fact for you, Dan.
- [69:23]
Bill Kristol
Yep.
- [69:23]
JVL (Joe Villa)
In knot theory, a circle of rope without a knot is technically a knot, but it's called a knot knot. Very good. I go on here as well. In 2019, a marathon runner with the words Jesus saves written on his bib had a heart attack, but was revived by a man called Jesus. That is amazing. If you want to hear more facts like that, search for no such thing
- [69:43]
Bill Kristol
as a fish wherever you get your podcasts.