Bulwark Takes – Command Post LIVE: Hegseth Press Event, Iran War Updates (w/ Tom Nichols)

Date: March 4, 2026
Hosts: Ben, General Mark Hertling
Guest: Tom Nichols, Professor Emeritus of National Security Affairs, Naval War College & Staff Writer, The Atlantic

Overview

This special live episode of Command Post on the Bulwark Takes feed dives into major ongoing developments regarding the U.S.-Iran war, focusing on the implications and quality of U.S. strategy—or lack thereof. With military and strategic experts General Mark Hertling and Tom Nichols (Naval War College professor emeritus), the conversation critically examines the recent press conference by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, the administration's aims and messaging, military strategy fundamentals, repercussions for global security (including Ukraine and China), and potential outcomes of current actions in Iran. The guests share both professional critique and personal reflection on leadership, operational conduct, and the costs of conflict.

Main Discussion Points & Key Insights

1. What Is the U.S. Strategy Toward Iran?

• Definition of Strategy: General Hertling opens by clarifying military levels:
  • Tactical: Individual battles and engagements.
  • Operational: Linking battles into campaigns.
  • Strategic: Defining broader war aims and desired outcomes.
• Lack of Clear Strategy:
  • Tom Nichols (03:21):

    "The problem is that I don't know what the strategy is and I don't think that the White House does... Let's blow up the leadership, let's take down their missile and nuclear capabilities and then, you know, dot, dot, dot, something good will happen. And that's not really a strategy."

  • The administration appears more focused on kinetic military actions—destroying targets—without a coherent end state.

2. Analyzing Pete Hegseth’s Press Conference

• Military vs. Political Messaging:

  • Hegseth’s briefing was criticized as performative and unsuited for explaining national strategy during an ongoing war.
  • Tom Nichols (07:06):

    "'You never beat us on the battlefield.' And [the North Vietnamese colonel says] ‘That's true. It's also irrelevant.' ...We could get into this situation where a year from now we're a lot worse off and the Iranian regime is still there."

• Failure to Address Loss and Complexity:

  • The discussion highlights Hegseth’s cavalier attitude towards American casualties and seeming disregard for the human cost.
  • Tom Nichols (11:55):

    "When you're talking to the American people about 6 of their children being dead, you don't say, well, tragic things happen... your job, Mr. Secretary, is to make sure as few of those tragic things happen as possible."

  • Hertling shares personal impact:

    “This is a box I have on my desk with the pictures of the 253 soldiers and sailors... who made the ultimate sacrifice. ...Those pictures haunt me...” (13:01)

3. Operational Success ≠ Strategic Success

• Both Nichols and Hertling stress that winning battles does not equate to winning the war or achieving strategic goals.
• General Hertling (04:15):

  "You can win every battle...and lose the war, lose the objectives. It all gets to that key phrase of end state."

• Administration’s focus is on kinetic, visible effects rather than building a sustainable aftermath.

4. Aftermath and Unintended Consequences: Regime Change and Chaos

• Potential for Chaos in Iran:
  • General Hertling (17:05):

    “...after Shock and Awe. We spent the next 15 months in Baghdad trying to restore all of the kinds of things that were destroyed... to have that kind of destructive force... someone’s going to need electricity, institutions…”

  • Nichols warns that widespread destruction creates humanitarian crises and incentivizes regime loyalists or armed factions to keep the country unstable and to demonize the U.S.

    “We keep talking about regime change. It's regime destruction. ...The only way you can replace a regime is with boots on the ground… but they have to be somebody's boots.” (18:40)

5. Air Power, Ground Forces, and the Limits of Destruction

• Nichols and Ben discuss the logic (and flaws) of reliance on air power for regime change:
  • Aircraft cannot "hold ground;" air campaigns can destroy but not stabilize or rebuild.
  • Tom Nichols (24:29):

    "Their whole strategy seems to boil down to ‘look what we can do’... but aircraft cannot hold ground."

  • The real challenge is “what’s next?” after destructive operations.

6. Logistics and Ammunition: A Hidden Vulnerability

• General Hertling (26:25):

  “When you conduct the kind of operations... you're using a whole lot of THAAD batteries and Patriot batteries... you do start running low.”

• Administration statements about “tens of thousands of munitions left” are contradicted by separate recent statements about a depleted industrial base.

7. International Repercussions: Ukraine and China

• Nichols links U.S. ammo expenditures in Iran to potential impacts on aid/support for Ukraine—and strategic vulnerabilities versus China:
  • Tom Nichols (31:15):

    “…we should help with Ukraine. Oh, no, we're running out [of munitions]. They're gonna play that both ways.”

  • China and other adversaries are closely watching, both to learn from U.S. operations and to exploit any overextension or depletion of resources.
• Hertling adds a firsthand anecdote about Chinese military study of U.S. operations (35:02).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the U.S. Government’s Mixed Messaging:

"Every part of the government seems to be laying out different aims at different times. The State Department, the Defense Department, the White House just can't seem to get on the same page."
— Tom Nichols (07:50)

On Pete Hegseth’s Public Performance:

"...he doesn’t sound like a retired squad leader... sounds like a captain on Fox News, trying to make a partisan point..."
— Tom Nichols (09:26)

Expressing Military Honor and Grief:

"This is a box I have on my desk with the pictures of the 253 soldiers and sailors... who made the ultimate sacrifice. ...Those pictures haunt me..."
— General Mark Hertling (13:01)

On Strategic End States:

"Hope is a method... that seems to be the repeated emphasis... in terms of what happens as part of a strategy."
— General Mark Hertling (20:39)

On Logistical Constraints:

"Logistics determines the art of the possible."
— General Mark Hertling (05:00; reiterated 26:25)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:02 – General Mark Hertling’s primer on military strategy and levels.
• 03:08 – Tom Nichols begins critique of administration’s lack of strategy on Iran.
• 05:21 – Clip: Pete Hegseth’s controversial press conference highlights.
• 06:27 – Analysis of Hegseth’s remarks and military miscommunication.
• 13:01 – Hertling’s emotional reflection on the human cost of war.
• 17:05 – Discussion on the long-term aftermath of military campaigns (Shock and Awe/Lesson for Iran).
• 24:29 – Debate about efficacy and limitations of air power.
• 26:25 – Logistics, ammunition, and the U.S. military’s resource constraints.
• 31:15 – Linkages between U.S. resource use in Iran, Ukraine crisis, and strategic implications for China.
• 35:02 – Hertling recounts Chinese officers studying and learning from U.S. campaigns.
• 38:46 – Listener Q&A: What might happen if Congress or Trump ended the war?
• 42:34 – Q&A: How do allied militaries coordinate during coalition campaigning?
• 46:06 – Q&A: Are there regional groupings in Iran that could govern if regime falls?
• 47:59 – Q&A: Effects of war’s unpopularity on U.S. troop morale.
• 50:20 – General Hertling’s new book announcement.

Audience Q&A Highlights

• If the U.S. abruptly leaves Iran:
  The likely result is a power vacuum, risk of humanitarian disaster, possible migration crisis, and instability both internally (multiplicity of factions, ethnic minorities) and regionally.

• Allied Operational Coordination:
  Israel-U.S. coordination is through dual relationships and liaisons, but in larger alliances like NATO, inter-operability is fostered through years of joint training and central command structures.

• Iran’s Internal Structure:
  Iran is ethnically and culturally diverse, making any externally driven replacement government extremely complex and risky.

• Troop Morale:
  While current personnel are professional and focused on the mission, the prospect of a ground campaign in Iran is daunting and unpopular due to scale and complexity.

Conclusion

This episode pulls back the curtain on real-time U.S. decision-making in war, highlighting the deep contrast between tactical/operational effectiveness and the glaring absence of strategic foresight. Tom Nichols and Mark Hertling offer rare candor and detailed analysis, warning of complacency, lack of planning, and the grave costs of military hubris—both in practical terms and human lives. For listeners, the core message is clear: strategy is not simply about demonstrating power, but about achieving clear, sustainable outcomes, and leaders must communicate loss with seriousness and accountability.

For further engagement:

• Send questions to commandpost@thebulwark.com
• Next week off for General Hertling’s book launch: "If I Don’t Return: A Father’s Wartime Journal"