Live Reaction: Trump’s Bill Passes, but at What Cost for the GOP?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes
Episode Title: Live Reaction: Trump’s Bill Passes, but at What Cost for the GOP?
Release Date: July 1, 2025
Host/Authors: Sarah Longwell, Jonathan Cohn, and additional Bulwark team members

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1. Introduction and Overview of the Bill Passage

The episode begins with Sam Stein, the managing editor at The Bulwark, introducing the context: the Senate's narrow passage of Donald Trump's significant legislative bill. The vote was exceptionally tight, ending in a 50-50 split with JD Vance casting the decisive tie-breaking vote (00:00).

Key Points:

• Narrow Senate Vote: The bill passed by a single vote, highlighting the deep divisions within the Senate.
• Critical Votes: Senators Jonathan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Rand Paul were the dissenters who voted against the bill (00:40).
• Implications for GOP: The passage raises concerns about the Republican Party's cohesion and future legislative capabilities.

Notable Quote:

• Sam Stein emphasizes the precarious nature of the bill's passage: “Donald Trump's big beautiful bill by the skin of its teeth. 50-50.” (00:00)

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2. Congressional Dysfunction and Productivity

Sarah Longwell leads a discussion on the perceived inefficiency of the current Congress, suggesting that this legislative session might become one of the least productive in modern history. She draws parallels to the decline of empires, portraying the Senate's struggle to pass meaningful legislation as symptomatic of a fraying democratic system (00:36 – 02:19).

Key Points:

• Low Legislative Output: Apart from the major bill, Congress has passed only a handful of other pieces of legislation.
• Reconciliation Concerns: The use of reconciliation to bypass the filibuster is criticized as a sign of deeper dysfunction.
• Historical Comparison: Sarah likens the current scenario to historical moments indicating the decline of a democratic empire.

Notable Quote:

• Sarah Longwell muses, “It just passed. Do you guys want to, do you want to hear the audio? Do you care enough to hear that?” (00:22)

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3. Reconciliation and Senate Filibuster Debate

Jonathan Cohn expresses his long-standing opposition to the filibuster, advocating for a majority rule in the Senate. The conversation delves into whether eliminating the filibuster could mitigate the current legislative gridlock.

Key Points:

• Filibuster Criticism: Jonathan advocates for the removal of the filibuster, arguing it hinders effective governance.
• Reconciliation as a Tool: The use of reconciliation to pass the bill without extensive debate is seen as a workaround that undermines democratic deliberation.

Notable Quote:

• Jonathan Cohn states, “I’m a lifelong hater of the filibuster and think the Senate should be majority rule.” (03:49)

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4. Impact on Republican Senators: Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the repercussions of the bill's passage for moderate Republican senators, particularly Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

Key Points:

• Voting Consequences: The votes of Collins and Murkowski are scrutinized, with discussions on potential primary challenges and their future political viability.
• Public Perception: There's speculation that their support for the bill could alienate their moderate and conservative bases.
• Strategic Moves: Analysis of how the GOP leadership may have negotiated to protect certain senators to preserve party unity.

Notable Quotes:

• Unnamed Speaker expresses deep disappointment in Murkowski: “She knows it's a bad bill and she knows what she did was take a payoff for herself.” (08:54)
• Sarah Longwell questions Collins' future: “Is she going to get it both ways?” (09:54)

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5. Democratic Strategy and Messaging

The hosts explore strategies Democrats can adopt to counter the GOP's legislative maneuvers and the recently passed bill's implications.

Key Points:

• Targeted Messaging: Emphasis on crafting messages that highlight how the bill disproportionately benefits wealthy individuals at the expense of the poor.
• Voter Engagement: Encouraging Democrats to go on the offensive by detailing the bill's negative impacts through relatable stories.
• Home of the Brave Initiative: Introduction of a new platform to collect and disseminate personal stories affected by the bill, aiming to humanize the policy's consequences.

Notable Quotes:

• Unnamed Speaker introduces the initiative: “Home of the Brave is a place where we are collecting stories of the negative personal consequences of Trump's policies.” (18:47)
• Sarah Longwell underscores the need for active Democratic engagement: “Go on offense on this.” (16:06)

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6. Trump’s Influence and Counter Strategies

The conversation addresses the challenge posed by Trump's continued influence over the Republican base and explores potential strategies to diminish his sway.

Key Points:

• Media Campaigns: Observation that current Republican advertising heavily favors pro-Trump narratives, with little opposition messaging.
• Digital Advertising: Suggestion to utilize digital platforms like YouTube for targeted ads that highlight the bill's negative aspects.
• Public Accountability: Encouraging campaigns that directly link the bill’s contents to Trump’s agenda, holding him accountable for its passage.

Notable Quotes:

• Unnamed Speaker critiques Republican ads: “They are all from Republicans or it is all pro Trump stuff, supporting the bill.” (14:03)
• Sarah Longwell highlights the need to counteract Trump's messaging: “Is he going to be able to duck this or is there a way to stick this to him?” (13:07)

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7. Economic Outlook and Potential Recession

The hosts briefly touch upon upcoming economic data, expressing concerns over a potential recession triggered by the bill and other economic indicators.

Key Points:

• Economic Indicators: Anticipation of Q2 data showing possible contraction, which could officially mark a recession.
• Impact of the Bill: Discussion on how economic measures within the bill may exacerbate financial downturns.
• Tariffs and Trade Policies: Critique of Trump's tariff policies, noting their ongoing impact on the economy despite promises to reduce them.

Notable Quotes:

• Sarah Longwell predicts economic distress: “It could be in an actual recession by, you know, August.” (16:12)
• Unnamed Speaker comments on tariffs: “He keeps talking on the tariffs.” (16:26)

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8. Closing Thoughts and Future Outlook

In the concluding segments, the hosts reflect on the session's discussions, emphasizing the minimal legislative productivity and speculating on future congressional actions.

Key Points:

• Legislative Stalemate: Consensus that Congress is unlikely to pass significant additional legislation in the near term.
• Senatorial Defections: Acknowledgment that the possibility of senators defecting from their party bounds is slim following the bill's passage.
• Long-Term Implications: Concerns that the current political climate signals ongoing challenges for democratic governance and Republican cohesion.

Notable Quotes:

• Sarah Longwell remarks on the state of Congress: “Is this an empire sort of fraying at the seams?” (02:19)
• Unnamed Speaker asserts the end of certain political fantasies: “There's no point to her [Murkowski] anymore.” (20:20)

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9. Actionable Initiatives: Home of the Brave

The episode culminates with the introduction of Home of the Brave, a new initiative aimed at collecting personal stories about the negative impacts of Trump's policies. This platform is designed to amplify real-life consequences of the bill, providing tangible evidence to counteract Republican narratives.

Call to Action:

• Submission Invitation: Listeners are encouraged to visit HomeOfTheBrave.org to share their experiences and contribute to the collective narrative against the bill.
• Objective: To humanize the policy's effects and mobilize public opinion against the GOP's legislative strategies.

Notable Quote:

• Unnamed Speaker passionately introduces the initiative: “Go to of the brave.org and send my team your story and they are going to help make sure that people hear it so that people understand that this is hurting real people.” (18:47)

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Conclusion

The episode of Bulwark Takes offers a critical analysis of the Senate's recent bill passage, highlighting the internal fractures within the GOP and the broader implications for American democracy. Through incisive discussions on legislative strategies, senatorial behaviors, and economic concerns, the hosts provide listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current political landscape. The introduction of actionable initiatives like Home of the Brave underscores The Bulwark's commitment to proactive political engagement and advocacy.

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Noteworthy Quotes with Timestamps:

• Sam Stein: “Donald Trump's big beautiful bill by the skin of its teeth. 50-50.” (00:00)
• Sarah Longwell: “It just passed. Do you guys want to, do you want to hear the audio? Do you care enough to hear that?” (00:22)
• Jonathan Cohn: “I’m a lifelong hater of the filibuster and think the Senate should be majority rule.” (03:49)
• Unnamed Speaker: “She knows it's a bad bill and she knows what she did was take a payoff for herself.” (08:54)
• Sarah Longwell: “Is she going to get it both ways?” (09:54)
• Unnamed Speaker: “Home of the Brave is a place where we are collecting stories of the negative personal consequences of Trump's policies.” (18:47)

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Transcript

[Sam Stein]

Hey guys. Me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark. A little while ago, the Senate passed Donald Trump's big beautiful bill by the skin of its teeth. 50 50. With JD Vance casting the tie breaking vote. We were recording live during that jvl. Sarah and Jonathan Cohn, what you're about to watch is that recording. We hope you enjoy and make sure to subscribe to our substack and our YouTube.

[Jonathan Cohn]

Thanks.

[Sarah Longwell]

The bill is passed. It just passed. Do you guys want to, do you want to hear the audio? Do you care enough to hear that?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Did Murkowski voted for it?

[Jonathan Cohn]

She did.

[Unnamed Speaker]

What was the actual vote? Did J.D. vance have to tie break the tie?

[Jonathan Cohn]

Yep.

[Sarah Longwell]

50. 50. So who, who, who got off the hook and voted against it?

[Jonathan Cohn]

Jonathan Collins, Tillis and Paul.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Paul.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, well there you go. That's interesting. Has, have we ever had. I, I wonder. Somebody will have to do this. Just an actual headcount of bills passed in a Congress. This is going to wind up as one of the least productive Congresses certainly in modern history. Normally Congress at least passes a whole bunch of meaningless, like, you know, sense of the Congress type bills. I think they had passed like five or seven pieces of legislation leading up to this and there's this. And I suspect we'll get almost nothing before the midterm elections, which are still a year and a half out. Does this feel at all to you guys like an empire sort of fraying at the seams, like basic. Again, just if this were a scene in a history book, right, that you're reading about like whatever the given is about the decline and fall of the American empire. And they talked about how, yeah, they, you know, they're just scribbling notes back and forth on a piece of paper on a napkin in the chamber trying to get through this bill that nobody had read that lards on another $3 trillion in debt and for the only thing they could pass that, that is a, that is our, you know, potted view of how dysfunctional the American democracy had become and why it fell. Like it, it would fit, wouldn't it, as an anecdote? No, Sarah, you're, you're giving me your grimace.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Well, you just always have to, you have to be so maximalist. Like they passed the crappy bill in the most like janky way and it's an embarrassment and, but like the end of an empire. I don't know that I think this bill is that thing.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm not saying that it is. I'm not saying this. I'm just saying doesn't this feel like a scene from that, right? Like, this is, this is how democracies that can no longer function. This is how they operate in the waning days.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I mean, I don't know, they, they still look, I think that reconciliation is really bad. It's also how we've passed a lot of things. Like they did, they did Biden's thing, the reconciliation, his build back better. And like this is a, this is a dysfunction of trying to do an end round, end run around the filibuster. And so like it is dysfunction to be sure. But they did just get a vote and they did it kind of in the horse trading way that they do it. It's more chaotic, it's with less deliberative debate for the American people like we did with the aca. Like there's always, like, this is not me defending it whatsoever. I just, we're, they're still passing laws like it's, it's like on the slope down, but it's not the end point. Like, I think there's, I don't think we're in the pitch black yet. I don't know. But John, Johnathan can tell. Say what he thinks.

[Jonathan Cohn]

Yeah, I mean, I, so I'm, you know, I'm less bothered by the reconciliation part. I'm a long, I'm a lifelong hater of the filibuster and think the Senate should be majority rule.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Well then just get rid of the filibuster instead of that. Yeah, sorry. Go ahead.

[Jonathan Cohn]

For sure, for sure, for sure. And that's, that's what I would do. I mean, this whole reconciliation, you know, just, let's just get rid of it for once and for all and have it be a majority chamber. The part about that, it gets to me. I mean, it's just so obvious what's going on here, which is this thing is unpopular. We're just going to ram it through as fast as we can. We're not even going to show it to people. You know, we're voting on bills of enormous consequence five days after the language, or in this case, we got the language. I mean, I popped in my social media feed, I think 45 seconds before the final, before the final vote. And it's just very clear the M.O. here is we can't let people know what's in this. We can't let people focus on what's in this. So we're just going to throw it all together, negotiate it behind closed doors and then spring it on people and see if we can ram it through which is, this is the antithesis of deliberate democracy. So in that sense, I do think it's sort of a clip of a declining democracy. And also just substantively, so much of this feels so, just needlessly self destructive. I mean, I mean, forget about this sort of, you know, the sort of intelligence, you know, the sort of, you know, serious policy debates. Government should be bigger, should be smaller. I mean, things like, you know, cutting off manufacturing, you know, cutting off subsidies for factories that are being built. That is like our best chance to compete with China, for example, on, you know, the future of energy and just cutting that off. Spidey and that to me, I mean, I think of any single, you know, I get worked up about the health care stuff, But I look 20 years down the road, 30 years down the road. And when we're not energy, we're totally behind and dependent on other countries for all this new technology and energy that we can't do because we just undercut it when we had a chance to catch up. That to me is a sign of a kind of empire in decline.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, we do have Q2 economic data coming, coming down the pipe at us pretty soon. Gonna be interesting to see if we get a second straight quarter of contraction which would put us in an official recession first, like man made recession maybe ever. Sarah, can I ask you to put on your strategist hat?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

And if, if I, if I were the Democratic Party and I came to you and I said, Sarah, tell me how to attack this thing and how to make them pay, what would you tell me? Who would you say to target and how would you tell me to attack?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Okay, well this is why, this is like the simplest down the middle pitch is they cut benefits for you to give tax cuts to rich people. Like, and this is a thing that voters understand and that Trump doesn't really have a good response like that is exactly what they've done. Right. So I am, I like tax cuts. I don't like, I don't like tons and tons of taxes. But just as an objective matter, what they have done is to give. These are not tax cuts for low income people or tax cuts. It is tax cuts for wealthy people and they are paying for it on the backs of the poorest people. And I think you can ride that particular message all day long with Trump voters and jbl. To your point about, do they not blame Trump and instead blame their local Republican? Maybe. I mean the ads are certainly going to say, you know, ex Republican congressman and Senator voted for it. So I mean the one person. It's interesting, you know, Tillis stepping down. One of the things that whoever replaces him will have going for them is that they didn't vote for this because they weren't in the chamber.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right. So they can say they liked it and they love Trump, but they don't actually have the vote hanging around them.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And can I just say, I'm like obsessed. Just like John is obsessed with like the health care aspects of this. I'm obsessed with the moderate Republican aspect of this. So basically, Susan Collins is up, Lisa Murkowski is not. And so whatever deal just went into place was them saying, we're going to let Collins off the hook because she won't be able to defend this when she's running. But Murkowski isn't up again. You know, she just won in 2024. And so they're making her or not making her, because you know what?

[Sarah Longwell]

They can't make her. She chooses.

[Unnamed Speaker]

She chose this. I mean, they did all the things they could to buy her off. And I, I will. I'm trying not to, like, be an insane person on this live cast. I couldn't be angrier at Lisa Murkowski. And I mean, like, personally.

[Sarah Longwell]

Welcome to my world. This is give into the hate, young Jedi.

[Unnamed Speaker]

No, it's not hate. It is, it is like the deepest of disappointment. Because here's the thing, like, if you're, if you're Murkowski, you have fashioned yourself all this time as like a sensible person. And look, and she's good at bringing stuff home for her state, and that's okay. Like, you should be responsive to your constituents, but not at the expense of the entire country. And the fact that she has not stood up in this moment, like, these are like life defining moments for people. You know, I bet John McCain never once regretted his thumbs down. And Lisa Murkowski, I think will regret this because she knows it's a bad bill and she knows what she did was take a payoff for herself. And it is a, it is just a, it's a really sickening thing to watch.

[Sarah Longwell]

And this is a woman who was just a few weeks ago crying about how, you know, what a scary time it is to be elected because there are all these people out who want to do violence, you know. Which people? Is it? Is it the, the trans folks out to do violence against Lisa Murkowski? I don't think so. It's Republican voters, but that's okay. I have a question though, is what do you guys think? Do you think this is enough to save Susan Collins again, is she going to get it both ways? Is she going to get it from a MAGA primary vote, primary challenge and then a quality Democrat, or do you think she avoids the primary challenge?

[Unnamed Speaker]

I bet they. That's what they gave. I bet they. I bet. I bet they. Well, I don't know. I mean my guess is just like there was some meeting like I assume there was a meeting with Thune like that they horse traded with the moderates and we're like you three, like Tillis. That Tillis is, you know, retiring now so he can vote no on it. Rand, actually, I think is principled opposition and I think for political reasons they let her go and then they put all the force onto Murkowski. Is she going to get to have it both ways? A little bit. A little bit. I think unless Trump calls for a primary against her because she voted no. But my guess is th has like greased the way on that. I don't know. John, what do you think?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. What are your.

[Jonathan Cohn]

I mean, yeah, I don't, I don't know Maine politics well enough to know the sort of. I know a little bit about Maine politics. I mean, I would be, if I were Collins, I would be. I don't know. I feel like she's in danger even with this vote. I mean, maybe this vote helps her, but isn't she still in danger of getting the sort of stink of Trump on her and just this, you know, being tied to him in a year, that could be really, really bad for the Republicans. I think one thing I suspect a lot of the Republicans are telling themselves well, these cuts won't hit for a while. People won't see them. It'll be a slow burn. And I think this is one of the places where I suspect they're rushing the bill through is going to come back to haunt them because some of the stuff is going to hit, the ACA stuff is going to hit next year. People are going to see higher premiums the way things are going and take it from the Democrats from 2014 and 13 how that plays and that is going to. I think that will hurt. Some of this will be there. It'll be fresh in people's minds. So I think you're looking at a bad year for the Republicans. So for Collins, I mean that to me, I mean, and Maine is a kind of whatever, purple state, right? I mean, it's a weirdly purple state, but it's a purple state. So I imagine this helps her a little bit. But I don't know. I Also think a lot of this gets shaped and driven in the world is not Twitter, the world is not the online activist. But online activists do tend to play, I think, an outsized role in shaping the debate. And I think people are gonna call her to account for other things she's done to enable Trump. And I think that hurts her. But who knows?

[Sarah Longwell]

All right, last, last big question for you, Sarah. You are, as am I, somewhat obsessed with the idea of driving down Trump's numbers because everything becomes harder for him the more unpopular he is. Will he be able to duck this or is there a way to stick this to him?

[Unnamed Speaker]

There's of course a way to stick it to him. And it is a matter of.

[Sarah Longwell]

Don't say it like it's so obvious.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Well, well, you know, I gotta tell you, I, so I, I have been watching the ads on cable news right now. They are all from Republicans or it is all pro Trump stuff, supporting the bill, talking about the good stuff that's in it. I'm seeing very little opposition spend against this except for like maybe some like industry specific stuff. But that's all like targeted at the elites, Democrats. This is where like you have to stick it to Trump. Like it doesn't always just organically happen. It's about. Trump is going to say the whole time we did this amazing things. And you know what?

[Sarah Longwell]

Look, I got it done, big win for me.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I got it done, big win for me. And like they got to go through.

[Sarah Longwell]

The bill, they said it could never happen.

[Unnamed Speaker]

They got to go through the bill and take out all the worst stuff and put it in ads and hang it on them all day long. And they've got a hammer. The red places, the places where they're going to.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's the real thing, right?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Yeah, they gotta, this is not a.

[Sarah Longwell]

Basic turnout thing and it's not a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Swing voter thing because the swing voters are affluent and are glad for their tax cuts.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes. So this is again, this is what I was really going to try to drive at with you. Is it the case that if you were advising Democrats, you would say, hey, you should spend $100 million doing ads on Fox and News Nation and OAN because those are the people you can sour on Trump now.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I'm not sure I would, I would give those guys exactly my, my money. You could just, just use YouTube, just use YouTube digital advertising and, and Geo Locate for all of the rural areas that are about. Because this is what the Republicans are going to do. They're going to be like, look at all the hospital Money that we got to try to buy you guys off from the fact that millions of people in your state are going to lose Medicaid and access to health care, like, go right at that stuff. But there's not. Those aren't the only things that are going to be horrible for people in this bill. There's so much in this bill and Democrats, you know, because they did it through reconciliation and unlike the ACA where there was all this time to debate all the various things that was what led to death panels and people like, going back and forth on like the specifics. Voters won't know what's in this unless somebody tells them. And they won't know how it's going to hurt them potentially unless somebody tells them. And so like, that's the thing. And for Democrats, I think, who have been searching and unsure and where's their offense? Like, this is it, this is it. Go on offense on this.

[Sarah Longwell]

Between this and the Trump session, again, like I. The indicators don't look great for Q2 if you just look at like container ship traffic and stuff like that. I do think, I mean, it is possible the growth will be positive, but if so, it'll be very, very small. It's also possible it's going to be negative. It could be in an actual recession by, you know, August. Like that. It seems like we'll see.

[Unnamed Speaker]

He keeps tacoing on the tariffs.

[Sarah Longwell]

So, yeah, I guess I, I think.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That was true when he was sticking to the tariffs, but now that he's not and he's just.

[Sarah Longwell]

It remains still quite high though, right? You know, he's like, oh, they're only 30. Right. And 30 is still a lot more than like the 4% average it was before. Yeah, I, he is weirdly good at having it both ways with his base. There was. I, I put in today's newsletter story from Mississippi about a foreign national from Scandinavia who has been arrested by, iced by ICE and sent off to. To a detention center in Louisiana. It's a big MAGA fan, loves Trump. You know who he blames for his arrest, Sarah?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Democrats.

[Sarah Longwell]

Joe Biden.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Joe Biden, sure.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's all Joe Biden's fault. I just thought, I don't know, man. How do you fight that? But like, what?

[Unnamed Speaker]

You don't fight it with that guy. That guy's got.

[Jonathan Cohn]

Yeah, I mean, I was gonna say, I mean, aren't there. I mean, that guy's not. I mean, that guy's. Politically. That guy's lost. Right? I mean, he sort of. You write him off. I Mean, you don't write him off as a person, but political, politically, you know, not something gain. But I do feel, I mean, I feel like there are people still persuaded. I mean, you don't need that, right? I mean, Sarah, you tell me, but I mean, I feel like there's enough of an audience out there that is open to some of these arguments, and especially on healthcare. And the other thing, I think, I mean, I am not an. The last person in the world should be sort of drawing up ads and slogans. Ask anyone who's worked with me on a headline at the Bulwark. But it seems to me there are ample opportunities here to run ads, digital ads, you know, if not on the networks with, you know, you don't even have to have a politician in them. You just put a real person on them. This, you know, I'm the, you know, I lost. I mean, I remember that, I mean that. You remember that Mitt Romney ad that was so devastating in 2012. And a lot of people thought it was unfair, but what made it devastating was you heard from the person who had this story to tell and there's going to be. There are a million of those stories to tell. There are going to be a million stories to tell. Just feel like that can break through to people sometimes. Maybe, maybe not. I don't know.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sarah, if only someone who, who could collect stor of people who have become disillusioned with Trump and get them out into the world. Can you find someone to do that for us, please?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Guys, this is why we've launched Home of the Brave. Home of the Brave is a place where we are collecting stories of the negative personal consequences of Trump's policies. There's going to be a lot of new negative personal consequences as a result of this bill. So go to of the brave.org and send my team your story and they are going to help make sure that people hear it so that people understand that this is hurting real people.

[Jonathan Cohn]

That was not a setup, by the way. That was just.

[Unnamed Speaker]

No, it wasn't. That came about organically. Yeah, my team would have been mad if I had whiffed on that, because.

[Sarah Longwell]

I, I, you know, I was playing the long game, setting that up. Yeah, I knew, I knew where I was going the whole time. Professional transitions. Guys, do you have any final thoughts before we get out of here? Like, dude, will we get any more legislation or is that, is this Congress just done? Like, they're, they're all set and do we, should we expect any defections? I mean, this is, we Were literally one week ago, Sarah, you, Tim and I were doing fantasy politics of, like, why couldn't Lisa Murkowski just become an independent with Susan Collins? Well, it turns out, no, like.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Well, that is off the table now. Like, voting for this is. There's no. There's no more West Wing fantasy politics about Lisa Murkowski. Like, and basically, Tim was talking about this.

[Sarah Longwell]

What she. What we thought she was right.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Not me.

[Sarah Longwell]

Not me, me, me. I've been. I've been an anti Murkowski for years. You and I have thought about this going back, like, six years in the Secret.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Yeah, I. Well, there's just. There's no point to her anymore. And you know that this is just the thing. Like, I know there's a lot of people who spent a lot of money so that there could be ranked choice voting in Alaska because they thought it would help somebody like Murkowski not lose to Sarah Palin. Right. And it did. I think. I don't know if Murkowski would have won that primary outright without ranked choice voting. I'm not sure. Here's what I do know. I know what's the difference between having Lisa Murkowski and Sarah Palin at this point. Like, the thing about having Sarah Palin is that it would at least be a more honest expression of who this party is.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. I don't. You know, and yet, weirdly, I'm almost one to take the other side of this, because having a Sarah Palin type could create more damage. Like, the votes would be the same, but the votes are the least important. And I told you that's not true. The votes are only part of what they can do. I think having somebody who. But on the other hand, there's the opportunity cost, as you say, which, like, provides respectable cover.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Yes. Like, the problem here is that there's a bunch of people being like, well, the bill can't be that bad. Murkowski voted for it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Unnamed Speaker]

She's using her credibility as a moderate and conferring it on this bill, which is exactly what Cassidy did with RFK and that and I. And now. And he should be humiliated about this all day long.

[Sarah Longwell]

And yet he won't. No shame. No shame and no spite. We were talking about this yesterday. It's weird that none of these people feel spite. Like, Tillis is not just going to go scorched earth on his way out the door, is not going to start caucusing with Democrats. You know, Cassidy's not ashamed. The RFK thing. He, like, won't even, like, publicly criticize rfk. He'll like, you know, I don't want to characterize our conversation. Like, no wonder these guys keep losing. Yeah, they're a bunch of losers. They're really weak. Trump. Trump had them pegged from the start.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

All right. Jonathan Cohn, Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark. It's been great being here at, you know, Scenes from the End of a Democracy with you. I can't wait to keep doing it on this channel multiple times a day, every day for the next three and a half years, at least, maybe longer. Hit subscribe and follow us. And if you're not reading us, go over to the bulwark.com sign up, get my newsletter at least. It's very good. Many people are saying it's one of the best daily newsletters that comes out at 12:30 in. In all of America. So there it is. Barry, you can take us off. Sarah, best friend, it was good seeing you yesterday. Jonathan Cohen, Great to be with you, buddy. Good luck, America.