Bulwark Takes: “Mark Kelly: 23 Million Americans Are About to Get Punched in the Face”
Date: October 28, 2025
Host: Sam Stein (Managing Editor, The Bulwark)
Guest: Senator Mark Kelly (Arizona)
Episode Overview
In this episode, Sam Stein interviews Senator Mark Kelly to dissect urgent national issues: the legality and motivations behind U.S. military actions in the Caribbean (particularly involving Venezuela), shifting immigration enforcement tactics, the government shutdown’s devastating impact on millions of Americans’ health care costs, and the Democratic Party’s present-day messaging and political future. Senator Kelly provides candid, at times blunt, assessments rooted in his military, intelligence, and legislative experience.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. U.S. Military Strikes in the Caribbean: Legal and Strategic Concerns
[01:00–10:54]
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Strikes on Alleged Drug Boats: The U.S. reportedly conducted four kinetic strikes in the Caribbean, killing 14, targeting what the administration claims were drug trafficking vessels. Details remain sparse and shrouded in secrecy.
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Senator Kelly’s Skepticism: Having sat on both the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees and drawing on his Navy background, Kelly is unconvinced by the administration’s legal rationale for these actions.
“They have tried to explain to us how designating these groups as terrorist organizations allows us to just go and conduct kinetic strikes and kill them. I don’t think I’ve seen anything like this... For us to make a decision that something is clearly a law enforcement action, and the US Military is making a decision to just eliminate these people — we should arrest them.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [02:32] -
Blurring Legal Boundaries: Kelly stresses that these Caribbean actions lack the clarity and legitimacy accorded during declared wars and involve risk for U.S. military personnel placed in ambiguous, undefined situations.
“Not fair to the members of the military that have to do this, right. That have to pull the trigger... Not once did I say to myself, hey, I wonder if this is an illegal order...”
— Senator Mark Kelly [04:21] -
Transparency Issues: The administration is not providing Congress or the public with transparent explanations.
“The administration is not being transparent. Not being transparent with the public... and is trying to skirt the law on this.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [04:00] -
Motives: Drug War or Regime Change?: There is confusion over why Venezuela is being targeted, as most fentanyl flows through other routes. Kelly notes speculation that regime change is a hidden motivation, cautioning against repeating U.S. interventionist mistakes.
“I do think it would be a positive thing to see regime change, but us trying to impose it on them, I think we’ve got to be really careful about that... Our history with regime change is not good.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [07:20] -
Congressional Oversight Hamstrung: Kelly doubts Congress will act meaningfully to check or authorize such overseas military activity, blaming partisan inaction, with an exception for Senator Rand Paul.
“We won’t have one [a vote] because the Republicans will not stand up to this president. They just won’t. Rand Paul is... on an island all by himself right now with regards to Venezuela.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [10:16]
2. Domestic Policy: Immigration Enforcement Shake-Up
[10:54–14:56]
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ICE and Border Patrol Role Changes: The administration is swapping out ICE field officers for Border Patrol agents, potentially escalating controversial enforcement actions in cities like Phoenix (Kelly’s home state).
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Training and Accountability Risks: Kelly expresses concern over Border Patrol taking on responsibilities they’re untrained for, predicting more chaotic and potentially unlawful immigrant enforcement.
“The problem with this is you’re now going to turn over a complicated operation to somebody who isn’t trained to do this. ICE is actually trained to do this... If you start turning some of this leadership over to the Border Patrol... you’re going to have even more problems.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [11:39] -
Prepared to Respond Legally: Local Arizona officials are alert to the risk of overreaches and are willing to pursue legal action against any federal violations.
“If any federal government organization oversteps its legal authority, it is within the right of the state to file a lawsuit and contest this in the courts and we will be prepared to do that.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [14:56]
3. Government Shutdown & Looming Health Care Crisis
[15:11–20:35]
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Stalemate and Blame: With the government shuttered and no deal in sight, 23 million Americans face massive increases in health care premiums as of November 1. Kelly accuses the administration and Congressional Republicans of political hostage-taking.
“The President and his Republican minions in the Congress are holding the American people hostage essentially over their healthcare costs... 23 million Americans who on November 1st are going to get punched in the face with a skyrocketing health care bill.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [15:42] -
Skyrocketing Premiums: Some Americans, especially in Alaska and Arizona, are facing four-digit monthly increases (e.g., $600 to $4000/month).
“People in Alaska are going to see those increases. We’re going to see people with increases of 2, 300, 400%.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [17:05] -
Political Resistance: Kelly is pessimistic that Republican leaders will break with the President, voicing doubt about any firm bipartisan solution—or that future agreements would even be honored in good faith.
“He [John Thune] does what Donald Trump lets him do. That’s it. Same with Mike Johnson. So they’re not independent actors at this point.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [20:35] -
Vow to Keep Fighting: Despite skepticism about the administration’s trustworthiness and tactics, Kelly pledges to continue advocating for affected Americans.
“We’re going to keep fighting for the American people all the way to the end of this administration. That’s what we’re doing now.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [20:47]
4. The Democratic Party’s Path Forward—Messaging, Moderation, & Electoral Success
[20:59–25:20]
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Perceptions of Drift Left: Referencing a new report, Stein probes Kelly on whether the Democratic Party’s focus and image have grown out of touch with voters. Kelly advocates for pragmatism, moderation, and focus on “bread and butter” issues.
“I don’t like the crazy shit that the people all the way on the left say, and I don’t like the crazy shit the people on the right say. And I think most of the American people are somewhere in the middle.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [22:05] -
Moderation Wins: Kelly argues that moderates win competitive elections and urges Democrats to avoid divisive cultural battles in favor of practical concerns like personal finance and safety.
“If you want to win competitive elections, stay away from the crazy stuff. Focus on the things that the American people care about... They care about their personal financial security and the security of their family.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [22:15] -
Space Program—Personal Passions vs. Priorities: Joking with Stein, Kelly admits even his beloved NASA doesn’t top the average voter’s list—what they want is stability and security.
“What the American people care about is paying their rent and their mortgage and putting their food on the table, maybe taking their kids on a vacation, having healthcare, having a safe community to live in...”
— Senator Mark Kelly [23:28] -
Primary Politics—Accountability and Opportunity: On the Maine Democratic Senate primary, Kelly acknowledges enthusiasm, insists on accountability for past online posts, but notes a real opportunity for a moderate Democrat to unseat Susan Collins.
“There’s a lot of enthusiasm and in Janet Mills, we’ve got a great opportunity there... There’s also going to be a primary pretty, pretty clear about that.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [24:47]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On regime change:
“Our history with regime change is not good... Who’s in charge in Afghanistan now? The Taliban, you know, the group that we tried to throw out and did successfully for a period of time. It cost a lot of American lives, cost a lot of money...”
— Senator Mark Kelly [07:20] -
On federal overreach in immigration:
“We do not want to see what’s happening in LA and Portland and Chicago happening in Phoenix... We’re going to have a response if they start doing things that are against the law.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [14:24] -
On party messaging:
“Stay away from the crazy stuff. Focus on the things that the American people care about.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [22:15] -
On health care ‘punch’:
“There are 23 million Americans who on November 1st are going to get punched in the face with a skyrocketing health care bill.”
— Senator Mark Kelly [15:42]
Timestamps for Major Topics
- 00:00–01:00: Advertisements and intro
- 01:00–10:54: Caribbean strikes, legality, regime change speculation, military transparency
- 10:54–14:56: Immigration enforcement, ICE/Border Patrol roles, state-level responses
- 15:11–20:47: Government shutdown, health care impacts, negotiations impasse, trust in administration
- 20:59–25:20: Democratic Party identity, voter perceptions, primary politics, moderation vs. extremism
- 25:20–end: Outro and advertisements
Tone and Language
- Candid and Direct: Senator Kelly does not mince words, criticizing both his own party and the opposition.
- Grounded in Experience: References to military command, legislative process, and personal outreach with constituents.
- Focus on Bread-and-Butter Issues: Persistent return to real-world impacts—financial security, law, and public safety.
- Pragmatic, Non-ideological: Emphasis on moderation and common sense over party or ideological extremes.
This episode is essential listening for those tracking U.S. foreign affairs, domestic politics, the future of health care, and the cross-currents shaping the 2026 elections. Senator Kelly’s mix of inside knowledge and plain talk provides clarity in a tumultuous moment.