Montana’s GOP Leaders Suddenly Bailed (w/ Ryan Busse)

Summary

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Bulwark Takes: Montana’s GOP Leaders Suddenly Bailed

Host: Lauren Egan (Bulwark)
Guest: Ryan Busse (Montana Democrat, congressional candidate, former 2024 gubernatorial candidate, ex-vice president of a gun company)
Date: March 8, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the seismic shifts unfolding in Montana’s political landscape following the surprise retirements of Rep. Ryan Zinke and Sen. Steve Daines. Host Lauren Egan speaks with Ryan Busse, a Democratic congressional candidate and former gubernatorial contender, about the impact of these departures, the changing tides in Montana politics, and what Democrats are learning from recent election cycles. The conversation covers the state’s evolving political culture, the shift from culture-war politics to bread-and-butter issues, the intersection of gun culture and responsibility, and broader implications for both parties going into the November elections.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Shockwaves From Sudden GOP Retirements

Timestamps: 01:08 – 02:52

• Zinke’s retirement wasn’t wholly unexpected (“It was a little surprising, but not shocking. The Daines thing, a U.S. Senator with seniority, pulls that kind of…for those who don't know, he waited until four minutes before the filing deadline, sneaks in his hand-picked successor… There aren’t ten people in the state who knows who this guy is.” – Ryan Busse, 01:51–02:33).
• The last-minute appointment prevented many Democrats from filing (making the field unexpectedly wide open and angering some Republicans).
• The incident is described as “depriving everybody of democracy here” (Ryan Busse, 02:43).

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2. How Montana Flipped: Nationalization and the Culture War

Timestamps: 02:55 – 06:20

• Montana was once “a place where Democrats used to win”—what changed?
• 2024 Senate race saturation: “$321 per voter was spent on that race. That is an astounding sum of money…It was full-on national super heated culture war all the time, every day.” (Ryan Busse, 03:32–04:01)
• He describes town halls and radio call-ins:
  • 2024: “Every call that came in or every other call was like, ‘kids in bathrooms and trans kids in sports.’ Just a nonstop diatribe of the culture war traps…” (Ryan Busse, 04:17–04:35)
  • 2026: “First call…Elizabeth, lifelong Republican—she can't take the corruption anymore. This crypto stuff's killing her. The next person...Why won't they release the Epstein files?...next caller...can't afford my health care. It’s an hour of that.” (Ryan Busse, 05:06–05:38)
• Key Insight: “Two years ago, total nationalized culture war craziness to now people's lived experience and what they're energized about is like our stuff...that portends very well for what's going to happen in November.” (Ryan Busse, 05:44–05:47)

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3. Lessons for Democrats: Avoid Culture War Traps

Timestamps: 05:47 – 07:57

• Republican “culture war” tactics work best in stable times; voters return to core concerns in tougher times.
• Candidate profiling:
  • “I think what Democrats need to do is nominate candidates...that don't give the Republicans a place to grab onto.” (Ryan Busse, 06:32)
  • Example: Aftyn Behn in Tennessee, who overperformed until attacked on culture-war issues: “There was a place to get hold of her… She lost by nine and a half. Still overperformance. But there was a place to get a hold of her.” (06:47–07:01)
  • Contrasts himself: “Me, you know, I'm a white dude, sold guns, drives trucks, drinks beer, cusses too much. Like, it’s hard to get a hold of me.” (07:10)
• “[Democrats should run candidates who] look and feel like the district.” (Ryan Busse, 07:38–07:44)

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4. Busse’s Break with the Gun Industry

Timestamps: 07:57 – 10:48

• Grew up hunting and shooting, worked in the gun industry—once a “dream.”
• Personal tragedies and “responsibility deeply ingrained.”
• Witnessed rise of dangerous radicalization in the industry:
  • “I started figuring out, wait, the industry isn't just building and selling these things that I like to use...it's also fomenting this dangerous, like, political radicalization.” (Ryan Busse, 08:47–09:01)
• Eventually left at the “peak of my career...Took lots of death threats...I wrote that book because I thought the world needs to know that radicalization and irresponsibility is a bad thing.” (Ryan Busse, 09:34–10:24)
• Still a proud gun owner and hunter; warns about consequences of radicalization spilling over into politics.

Notable Quote:

“I still am a proud gun owner. Hunt and shoot with my kids all the time. Proud of the gun company I helped build. And I'm super troubled about the radicalization that spilled out of the industry.”
– Ryan Busse (10:39)

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5. Gun Culture, Responsibility, and Montana Values

Timestamps: 10:48 – 12:59

• Montana’s gun ownership rates: “67.5% of adults in Montana own guns”—highest in the nation.
• Montanans value “responsibility with freedom”:
  • “Few things that you do in your life have the potential ramifications to other citizens, like owning a gun...” (11:13)
  • Mandatory hunter/gun safety training: “Nobody in Montana thinks that’s a bad idea. So the balancing of responsibility with freedom is something I think everybody here cares about.” (11:32–11:47)
• Recent national news (Minneapolis ICE raid) highlighted the risks of irresponsible gun use, which most local gun owners reject.
• The radicalization Busse warned about is now being noticed by Montana gun owners.

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6. Can a Democrat Still Win Statewide in Montana?

Timestamps: 12:59 – 15:17

• Seth Bodnar (UM President) runs as an independent; reportedly urged by Sen. Tester who says a “D” can’t win Montana-wide.
• Busse disagrees:
  • “I think 2024 was a bit of an aberration just because of the Biden stuff, the Trump stuff. Do I believe that a Dem can't win statewide in Montana? No, I don't. I don't believe that.” (Ryan Busse, 14:14–14:23)
  • Suggests you must “take on the national [Democratic] party” and adapt to local values: “There are things that the national party does...that just don't jive out here.” (14:26–14:33)
  • Applauded locally for “putting an elbow” in Democrats who block things like universal health care: “When I mention this on the trail...the rooms erupt.” (14:46)

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7. The Recipe: Populism + Cultural Moderation

Timestamps: 15:17 – 16:47

• Summing up the winning Montana formula:
  • “Embracing some more of economic populism combined with cultural moderation is kind of the recipe…” (Lauren Egan, 15:25–15:31)
  • Busse agrees: “Republicans are pretty good at setting culture war traps. Democrats [have] been damn good at stepping in them. We need to step around them...But every single person deserves to be able to buy a house...get health care...Those are 100% issues...and they really usurp all these culture war things.” (Ryan Busse, 15:34–16:39)
• Housing cost crisis: “Montana, by the way, is the least affordable housing state in the country. The least. It’s worse than California...People...can’t buy a house here.” (16:08)
• Urges Democrats to “zero in on that kind of stuff.”

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8. Primary Dynamics: Busse vs. Forstag

Timestamps: 16:47 – 18:13

• Sam Forstag (smoke jumper, union leader) gets attention in the Dem primary.
• Busse stresses electoral seriousness:
  • “I’m the only candidate in this thing that’s running a general election race, a statewide race...I’ve got a history of sacrificing, of…being a pretty good moral leader, integrity. And I think people in Montana...know how important this race is for our state.” (17:06–17:22)
  • Warns about possible election interference and the importance of the seat: “I'm running like this seat may be the one that matters to the House majority...And I think voters understand it's not time to take a flyer. It's time to elect somebody really serious and that's who we are.” (17:48–18:13)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Who knew Montana was the center of political universe this week?”
  – Ryan Busse (01:45)

• “They're dropping like flies out here.”
  – Ryan Busse, joking about the retirements (01:51)

• “I want to be on Team Hopium here on the home side.”
  – Ryan Busse, about offering hope for Democrats (03:18)

• “I still am a proud gun owner ... And I'm super troubled about the radicalization that spilled out of the industry.”
  – Ryan Busse (10:39)

• “Republicans are pretty good at setting culture war traps. Democrats [have] been damn good at stepping in them. We need to step around them.”
  – Ryan Busse (15:34)

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Segment Timestamps at a Glance

• 01:08 – Montana’s rapid retirements & aftermath
• 02:55 – What flipped Montana to GOP: money & culture wars
• 05:47 – Lessons (and traps) for Democrats
• 07:57 – Busse’s gun industry backstory
• 10:48 – Gun responsibility, local values, and radicalization
• 12:59 – Senate shakeup: can a “D” still win Montana?
• 15:17 – Economic populism + cultural moderation as the Dem formula
• 16:47 – Primary distinctions: Busse vs. Forstag

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This summary excludes sponsor messages and retains the original tone and key points of the conversation, offering clarity and direct speaker attribution throughout.

Transcript

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[Lauren Egan]

hey guys, it's Lauren Egan here at the Bulwark. There's been a lot of political news this week out of Montana and I'm joined today by Ryan Bussey to talk through it all. Ryan is running the Democratic primary for Congress in Montana's 1st district, which is currently represented by Republican Ryan Zinke, who is. But Zinke announced earlier this week that he's retiring. And just a few days after Zinke said he wouldn't run again, Montana Senator Steve Daines also said that he was going to retire. So there's a lot of shakeup going on in Montana politics this week. Ryan, just really quickly, I want to get your reaction to these pair of retirement announcements. Were you surprised? What's been the reaction from folks on

[Ryan Bussey]

the ground who knew Montana was the center of political universe this week?

[Lauren Egan]

I know, right?

[Ryan Bussey]

Yeah, they're dropping like flies out here. Yeah, it was honestly it was shocked. The Zinke thing was not super shocking. It had been rumored that he his heart really wasn't in it. And I had personally suspected that something might be up. So it was a little surprising but not shocking. The Danes thing, a US Senator, a sitting US Senator with seniority pulls that kind of. And for those who don't know, he waited until four minutes before the filing deadline, sneaks in his hand picked successor, I guess who they've coordinated a guy, a U.S. attorney who nobody in the state knows. There aren't 10 people in the state who knows who this guy is. Slipped him in last second. And also because of that, because of the last minute Thing lots of Dems didn't file to run. They thought, you know, it would be tough to run against a sitting US Senator. So it's really, it's quite a shakeup and the right side of the Republican Party pretty hot about this because it you know, sort of deprives everybody of democracy here. So yeah, it's been, it's been quite a thing.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah. Incredibly Democratic of him.

[Ryan Bussey]

Oh yeah.

[Lauren Egan]

I want to, I want to talk about your political background a little bit. You ran for governor in 2024 and lost. I'm curious what challenges you saw running statewide as a Democrat because this is the place where Democrats used to win. Obviously there was Governor Steve Bullock, John Tester was a senator from Montana. What do you think has changed in the past couple of years?

[Ryan Bussey]

Yeah, so I, I guess everybody watching this, I'm going to, I want to give you a little bit of hope and I know there are varying outlooks about hope or despair on the Bulwark team, but I'm going to be on, on Team Hopium here on the home side.

[Lauren Egan]

There you go.

[Ryan Bussey]

I'm going to be on Team Hopium. Look, two years ago when I ran we Senator John Tester ran then too. This was the most expensive per capita race in the history of the nation that Senate race was and it totally nationalized everything here. $321 per voter was spent on that race. I mean that is an astounding sum of money. The closest comparable that same year was Ohio at $44 per year. And what that spending did to the electorate here combined with the Biden mess, the Harris mess, all of the nationalization. There was no local politics, there were no issue politics issue. It was full on national super heated culture war all the time, every day like never stopped. As an illustration I would do, I like to do kind of a sicko like this. I like to do right wing talk radio. So I'll just get on the radio and just take calls on right wing radio. And two years ago every call that came in or every other call was like, you know, kids in bathrooms and trans kids in sports. Just like a non stop diatribe of the culture war traps that were out there. I just. And we did 187 events that year. I was in people's homes, I was in their breweries with them and I never once sensed that the voters really were that sort of partisan, energized. I didn't feel like this place that elected Democrats forever had really changed. But once so with the people it didn't feel any different. But once they got in a political environment like on talk radio or something, it totally changed. So fast forward to now, two years later, I do the same talk radio deal 10 days ago. And this should tell, you know, bulwark folks, what's going on. The first call that comes in, Elizabeth, lifelong Republican, she can't take the corruption anymore. This crypto stuff's killing her. The next person, I think his name is Bob, lifelong Republican. What's wrong with the Epstein files? Why won't they release the Epstein files? Like, goes off the next caller, some old guy from Hamilton, Montana. It's like, I don't know what to do, but I can't afford my health care. Like, and it's an hour of that. So two years ago, total nationalized culture war craziness to now people's lived experience and what they're energized about is like our stuff. And I think that portends very well for what's going to happen in November

[Lauren Egan]

on the culture war stuff. Do you feel like there's a lesson for Democrats to learn there? Because I hear you that that's probably not going to be the motivating factor in this cycle. Obviously, the political environment has changed dramatically. But in tough years for Democrats, that is a card that Republicans consistently play. So is there a lesson to be learned, do you think, for the Democratic Party, like, if you could tell national Democrats to do anything to help make Montana Democrats more successful long term, more palatable in a state like Montana, what would that be?

[Ryan Bussey]

I think, and I do think there's some lessons to be learned. Look, at least when times are super good or the economy feels, you know, fantastic and people aren't losing their health care, the like culture warring works. It does. We've seen it. It's, you know, it's elected Donald Trump twice and damn near elected him the middle time. I think what Democrats need to do is nominate candidates and run people like me that don't give the Democrat or don't give the Republicans a place to grab onto. Right. You look at this Afton Bain race in, in Tennessee right before Christmas. It was a Trump +16 district. And I met Bain and she's super impressive. Like, she's a spark plug. You don't want to get in her way as a candidate, as a person, she's impressive. And she was, she was only pulling like 2 points down in a Trump +16 district, right? So everybody thinks she's going to win. But then as the Republicans figure out, oh, wait, there's culture war Places to get a hold of her. She had cheered defunding police. She had celebrated, like burning down police stations, like this stuff that works. They got ahold of her, they swung her around. She lost by nine and a half. Still over performance. But there was a place to get a hold of her. Me, you know, I'm a white dude, sold guns, drives trucks, drinks beer, cusses too much. Like, it's hard to get a hold of me. It's not that I'm not progressive, because I believe it's time for universal healthcare, and I believe that even Republicans believe it's time for universal healthcare, but the culture waring places, it's hard to get a hold of me. And I think running candidates like that, that look and feel like the district's important.

[Lauren Egan]

Yeah. I live in Nashville, so I was very interested in Afton's race. But you brought up guns. And I want to talk about that part of your background. You left your position as vice president of sales for a firearm producer, and you wrote a book about the gun industry and your kind of break and disillusionment with the firearms industry in 2021. You talk to me about that breaking point that you had. Walk us through why you got there, why you wrote this book, and kind of where you land on this.

[Ryan Bussey]

Yeah, so my experience in the firearms industry, it really, for me was foretelling what happened in our political world. I. I got it. I was. I was raised on a ranch. You know, I'm a ranch kid. Ranch and farm and hunting and shooting for me was like the best part of my life. And so after I graduated from college, I'm thinking, I'm just. I'm gonna go do this thing that I love. And I got into the gun industry, and for a while, it was a dream for me. I get to hunt and shoot. But responsibility, where I grew up, I mean, my father's best friend was killed by. By this guy, and my father's best friend's father was killed by this guy when he was 16 with a gun. So, like, my family always understood what responsible gun ownership meant and what the implications are if you weren't responsible. That was deeply ingrained in my childhood, and it was deeply ingrained in the gun industry for a long time when I was there. And then as I. About halfway through, I thought, I started figuring out, wait, the industry isn't just building and selling these things that I like to use when I'm hunting or shooting. And I do this with my kids now. I'm proud of that. But it's also fomenting this dangerous, like, political radicalization. It's splitting the country. It's using something that's important to me and creating these really dangerous radicals. I started to see that NRA ism happening through the industry, and I just. I had this kind of bifurcated existence where I was proud of owning and selling guns and working for a company and really troubled about what the industry I was in was doing. And I could do both of those for a while. But as it got further along in my career and the radicalization just got way worse. I just couldn't feed that what the industry was doing anymore. And so I did something no career coach would. Would ever say to do. At 50 years old, at the peak of my career, I quit. Neither my wife or I were born with any money or inherited any money. And so whatever financial stability we had that was out the door. Took lots of death threats. My kids took death threats. Sarah took death threats. I did. We worried about going to the grocery store. But I wrote that book because I thought the world needs to know that radicalization and irresponsibility is a bad thing. And so I did that. And I still am a proud gun owner. Hunt and shoot with my kids all the time. Proud of the gun company I helped build. And I'm super troubled about the radicalization that spilled out of the industry.

[Lauren Egan]

A lot of your public profile is kind of tied around your break with the gun industry. And I'm curious. On the one hand, you still talk about how hunting is a big part of your life, but do you think that this break is a politics that can sell in Montana, or do you think that, like. Talk to me about how you kind of view the politics of this in the state.

[Ryan Bussey]

Yeah, good question. So Montana has the highest percentage of gun owners any state in the union. 67.5% of adults in Montana own guns. It's high, but I don't know. I shouldn't say none, but I. Virtually no Montanans I know that don't think being responsible, doing the right thing goes hand in hand with that kind of freedom. I mean, it is an immense sort of powerful freedom. Few things that you do in your life have the potential ramifications to other citizens, like owning a gun. And, you know, for instance, here, you can't. You can't hunt. And most people do hunt. I'm a hunter. We primarily eat wild game in our house. I'm proud of that. But you can't. You cannot be a hunter in this state if you don't take A hunter safety course, including a gun safety course, you cannot obtain a hunting license. Nobody in Montana thinks that that's a bad idea. So the balancing of responsibility with freedom is something I think everybody here cares about. Everybody I know does. And one thing that I think has brought that home, this incredibly horrific thing in Minneapolis. And I know Tim and everybody else is very exercised about this, and they should. But we saw right there what irresponsibility with guns versus responsibility with guns is. And most people in Montana see themselves as pretty, not as those ICE agents. The Trump administration sees gun ownership as those ICE agents taking your rights away from them. And if you don't, if you doubt me, just look at Trump's words. All you know, you can't bring a gun to a protest. All these things that he and Cash Patel and everybody said, well, that's news to every gun owner in Montana. And so I think that those sorts of things really highlight the radicalization that I was warning about. And that's. And they've got the attention of gun owners here.

[Lauren Egan]

I want to talk a little bit about some Senate news out of Montana. As I mentioned up top, Steve Daines is retiring and University of Montana President Seth Bennett Bodnar announced that he's going to run as an independent candidate.

[Ryan Bussey]

Yep.

[Lauren Egan]

Senator John Tester, the former Democratic senator, reportedly encouraged him to get in the race, but not as a Democrat, basically saying that you can't win with a D next to your name statewide. I'm curious if you agree with Tester's assessment on that and what you kind of make of, of this shakeup.

[Ryan Bussey]

I'll start with the shakeup first. I do know. So I know all the folks in the race. I know Seth, I know Riley Neal, Democrat running. I don't know. I don't know this Republican running because not many people know him since he was slipped in there with four minutes to go. I think there's an argument that being an independent gets you some votes, at least in initial voting, at least an initial polling. Right. On paper it looks good. I got to tell you, I know like John ran a tough race, a three term senator shouldn't lose. I get where he's coming from. I think 2024 was a bit of an aberration just because of the Biden stuff, the Trump stuff. Do I believe that a Dem can't win statewide in Montana? No, I don't. I don't believe that. I also don't think it's easy and I also don't think you can't do it if you don't take on the national party because there are things that the national party does or stands for or styles that they have that just, man, they just don't jive out here. So I think there's an artful way to do it. I mean, I'm doing it like, for instance, universal health care. I mean, a big impediment to universal health care. Yeah, it's Republicans, but there's a ton of Democrats standing in the way, and people know that. And when I mentioned this on the trail, like, look, if there are Democrats in the way, put a fricking elbow in them, get them out of the way. And I'm telling you, the rooms erupt. And so there's a way to do it and run as a Democrat without running as a national Democrat because Montana Democrats aren't really national Democrats. I think that's the way to win statewide. Who knows? With the, with Danes getting out, it's just completely thrown everything up in the air. I don't know where it's going to land. I do think the seat's big time in play right now, though. It's with him jumping out, it's going to be big time.

[Lauren Egan]

So it sounds like you're saying, and correct me if I have this wrong, maybe like embracing some more of economic populism combined with cultural moderation is kind of the recipe for success in a state like Montana. Is that how you're viewing it?

[Ryan Bussey]

Yeah, I think one thing I would say, and I have said this on the trail, like Republicans are pretty good at setting culture war traps. Democrats been damn good at stepping in them. We need to step around them. It's not that every single person in this state, in this country, doesn't deserve personal dignity. They do. But every single person deserves to be able to buy a house or to get health care or, you know, those are 100% issues and they're 100%, you know, circumstance. I have two boys, 18 and 21, and I'm really worried that they're not going to get a chance to live in this state that I love so much. Montana, by the way, is the least affordable housing state in the country. The least. It's worse than California on a per capita. You compare income versus housing expense. It's horrible. And people, working people, they can't buy a house here. A lot of working people have to drive two, three hours to work because they have to get some rental place out in the country. They can't afford to live or work in Missoula or Bozeman. It's a rough existence and those sorts of issues cross all partisan, all levels and they really usurp all these culture war things. And I think Democrats need to just like zero in on that kind of stuff.

[Lauren Egan]

Before I let you go, you are running in a primary and Sam Forstag, who's a smoke jumper and union leader, has gotten some buzz too. I'm curious what you view as the main distinctions between you two and what your, what your path to the, to the nomination is.

[Ryan Bussey]

Yeah, we feel pretty good about where I am. You know, I'm the only candidate in this thing that's running a general election race, a statewide race. I got really good name recognition, especially in the district here. And I think folks are, they understand what's at stake in this race. You know, I've got a history of sacrificing of, I hope being a pretty good moral leader, integrity. And I think people in Montana, especially in western Montana, they know how important this race is for our state. But the truth is there could be election interference across the country. In fact, I think there probably is going to be of some sort and I think it will probably happen in blue cities, blue states. And so some of these seats that we count as sure in shoe in winnables in other places may not be, who knows what they pull. And I, and I'm running like this seat may be the one that matters to the House majority. It's, it's up in the list already and with Zinke jumping out, it's going to be high on the list. And I think voters understand it's not time to take a flyer. It's time to elect somebody really serious and that's who we are.

[Lauren Egan]

All right, Ryan, appreciate you joining and come back and keep us updated on Montana politics.

[Ryan Bussey]

You guys keep up the good work. Love it all. Thanks for having me.

[Lauren Egan]

Thank you.

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[Lauren Egan]

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[Ryan Bussey]

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