Bulwark Takes: Montana’s GOP Leaders Suddenly Bailed

Host: Lauren Egan (Bulwark)
Guest: Ryan Busse (Montana Democrat, congressional candidate, former 2024 gubernatorial candidate, ex-vice president of a gun company)
Date: March 8, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the seismic shifts unfolding in Montana’s political landscape following the surprise retirements of Rep. Ryan Zinke and Sen. Steve Daines. Host Lauren Egan speaks with Ryan Busse, a Democratic congressional candidate and former gubernatorial contender, about the impact of these departures, the changing tides in Montana politics, and what Democrats are learning from recent election cycles. The conversation covers the state’s evolving political culture, the shift from culture-war politics to bread-and-butter issues, the intersection of gun culture and responsibility, and broader implications for both parties going into the November elections.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Shockwaves From Sudden GOP Retirements

Timestamps: 01:08 – 02:52

• Zinke’s retirement wasn’t wholly unexpected (“It was a little surprising, but not shocking. The Daines thing, a U.S. Senator with seniority, pulls that kind of…for those who don't know, he waited until four minutes before the filing deadline, sneaks in his hand-picked successor… There aren’t ten people in the state who knows who this guy is.” – Ryan Busse, 01:51–02:33).
• The last-minute appointment prevented many Democrats from filing (making the field unexpectedly wide open and angering some Republicans).
• The incident is described as “depriving everybody of democracy here” (Ryan Busse, 02:43).

2. How Montana Flipped: Nationalization and the Culture War

Timestamps: 02:55 – 06:20

• Montana was once “a place where Democrats used to win”—what changed?
• 2024 Senate race saturation: “$321 per voter was spent on that race. That is an astounding sum of money…It was full-on national super heated culture war all the time, every day.” (Ryan Busse, 03:32–04:01)
• He describes town halls and radio call-ins:
  • 2024: “Every call that came in or every other call was like, ‘kids in bathrooms and trans kids in sports.’ Just a nonstop diatribe of the culture war traps…” (Ryan Busse, 04:17–04:35)
  • 2026: “First call…Elizabeth, lifelong Republican—she can't take the corruption anymore. This crypto stuff's killing her. The next person...Why won't they release the Epstein files?...next caller...can't afford my health care. It’s an hour of that.” (Ryan Busse, 05:06–05:38)
• Key Insight: “Two years ago, total nationalized culture war craziness to now people's lived experience and what they're energized about is like our stuff...that portends very well for what's going to happen in November.” (Ryan Busse, 05:44–05:47)

3. Lessons for Democrats: Avoid Culture War Traps

Timestamps: 05:47 – 07:57

• Republican “culture war” tactics work best in stable times; voters return to core concerns in tougher times.
• Candidate profiling:
  • “I think what Democrats need to do is nominate candidates...that don't give the Republicans a place to grab onto.” (Ryan Busse, 06:32)
  • Example: Aftyn Behn in Tennessee, who overperformed until attacked on culture-war issues: “There was a place to get hold of her… She lost by nine and a half. Still overperformance. But there was a place to get a hold of her.” (06:47–07:01)
  • Contrasts himself: “Me, you know, I'm a white dude, sold guns, drives trucks, drinks beer, cusses too much. Like, it’s hard to get a hold of me.” (07:10)
• “[Democrats should run candidates who] look and feel like the district.” (Ryan Busse, 07:38–07:44)

4. Busse’s Break with the Gun Industry

Timestamps: 07:57 – 10:48

• Grew up hunting and shooting, worked in the gun industry—once a “dream.”
• Personal tragedies and “responsibility deeply ingrained.”
• Witnessed rise of dangerous radicalization in the industry:
  • “I started figuring out, wait, the industry isn't just building and selling these things that I like to use...it's also fomenting this dangerous, like, political radicalization.” (Ryan Busse, 08:47–09:01)
• Eventually left at the “peak of my career...Took lots of death threats...I wrote that book because I thought the world needs to know that radicalization and irresponsibility is a bad thing.” (Ryan Busse, 09:34–10:24)
• Still a proud gun owner and hunter; warns about consequences of radicalization spilling over into politics.

Notable Quote:

“I still am a proud gun owner. Hunt and shoot with my kids all the time. Proud of the gun company I helped build. And I'm super troubled about the radicalization that spilled out of the industry.”
– Ryan Busse (10:39)

5. Gun Culture, Responsibility, and Montana Values

Timestamps: 10:48 – 12:59

• Montana’s gun ownership rates: “67.5% of adults in Montana own guns”—highest in the nation.
• Montanans value “responsibility with freedom”:
  • “Few things that you do in your life have the potential ramifications to other citizens, like owning a gun...” (11:13)
  • Mandatory hunter/gun safety training: “Nobody in Montana thinks that’s a bad idea. So the balancing of responsibility with freedom is something I think everybody here cares about.” (11:32–11:47)
• Recent national news (Minneapolis ICE raid) highlighted the risks of irresponsible gun use, which most local gun owners reject.
• The radicalization Busse warned about is now being noticed by Montana gun owners.

6. Can a Democrat Still Win Statewide in Montana?

Timestamps: 12:59 – 15:17

• Seth Bodnar (UM President) runs as an independent; reportedly urged by Sen. Tester who says a “D” can’t win Montana-wide.
• Busse disagrees:
  • “I think 2024 was a bit of an aberration just because of the Biden stuff, the Trump stuff. Do I believe that a Dem can't win statewide in Montana? No, I don't. I don't believe that.” (Ryan Busse, 14:14–14:23)
  • Suggests you must “take on the national [Democratic] party” and adapt to local values: “There are things that the national party does...that just don't jive out here.” (14:26–14:33)
  • Applauded locally for “putting an elbow” in Democrats who block things like universal health care: “When I mention this on the trail...the rooms erupt.” (14:46)

7. The Recipe: Populism + Cultural Moderation

Timestamps: 15:17 – 16:47

• Summing up the winning Montana formula:
  • “Embracing some more of economic populism combined with cultural moderation is kind of the recipe…” (Lauren Egan, 15:25–15:31)
  • Busse agrees: “Republicans are pretty good at setting culture war traps. Democrats [have] been damn good at stepping in them. We need to step around them...But every single person deserves to be able to buy a house...get health care...Those are 100% issues...and they really usurp all these culture war things.” (Ryan Busse, 15:34–16:39)
• Housing cost crisis: “Montana, by the way, is the least affordable housing state in the country. The least. It’s worse than California...People...can’t buy a house here.” (16:08)
• Urges Democrats to “zero in on that kind of stuff.”

8. Primary Dynamics: Busse vs. Forstag

Timestamps: 16:47 – 18:13

• Sam Forstag (smoke jumper, union leader) gets attention in the Dem primary.
• Busse stresses electoral seriousness:
  • “I’m the only candidate in this thing that’s running a general election race, a statewide race...I’ve got a history of sacrificing, of…being a pretty good moral leader, integrity. And I think people in Montana...know how important this race is for our state.” (17:06–17:22)
  • Warns about possible election interference and the importance of the seat: “I'm running like this seat may be the one that matters to the House majority...And I think voters understand it's not time to take a flyer. It's time to elect somebody really serious and that's who we are.” (17:48–18:13)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Who knew Montana was the center of political universe this week?”
  – Ryan Busse (01:45)

• “They're dropping like flies out here.”
  – Ryan Busse, joking about the retirements (01:51)

• “I want to be on Team Hopium here on the home side.”
  – Ryan Busse, about offering hope for Democrats (03:18)

• “I still am a proud gun owner ... And I'm super troubled about the radicalization that spilled out of the industry.”
  – Ryan Busse (10:39)

• “Republicans are pretty good at setting culture war traps. Democrats [have] been damn good at stepping in them. We need to step around them.”
  – Ryan Busse (15:34)

Segment Timestamps at a Glance

• 01:08 – Montana’s rapid retirements & aftermath
• 02:55 – What flipped Montana to GOP: money & culture wars
• 05:47 – Lessons (and traps) for Democrats
• 07:57 – Busse’s gun industry backstory
• 10:48 – Gun responsibility, local values, and radicalization
• 12:59 – Senate shakeup: can a “D” still win Montana?
• 15:17 – Economic populism + cultural moderation as the Dem formula
• 16:47 – Primary distinctions: Busse vs. Forstag

This summary excludes sponsor messages and retains the original tone and key points of the conversation, offering clarity and direct speaker attribution throughout.