Bulwark Takes: NEW POLL — Independent Voters are Rejecting Trump (w/ Alyssa Cass)

Date: November 11, 2025
Host: Sam Stein (B)
Guest: Alyssa Cass (C), Chief Strategist at Blueprint

Episode Overview

This episode centers on a recent Blueprint poll analyzing American voters’ perceptions of Donald Trump’s perceived authoritarian tendencies, with a sharp focus on how independent voters view his actions. Alyssa Cass joins Sam Stein to unpack the methodology, reveal key results, and discuss the implications for political messaging—especially for Democrats seeking to counter Trump in the 2026 elections.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Blueprint’s Polling Methodology

• Timing & Sample:

  • Surveyed 3,028 voters online, mid-to-late September 2025
  • Sample demographics weighted for education, gender, race, engagement, and 2020 election results
  • Margin of error: 2.1%
  • Used a "maxdiff" approach: randomized comparisons between policy actions for respondents to choose which are more/less authoritarian (01:58)

• Purpose of Poll:

  • To test whether voters see Trump as an authoritarian not just in general, but by evaluating specific actions
  • To explore if the messaging around "authoritarianism" resonates compared to focusing on policy issues like the economy (03:03)

"There's been a lot of conversation... that Democrats or... those in the anti-Trump coalition focusing on his autocratic proclivities is not a message for voters—that it should be all about... the economy or... affordability."
— Alyssa Cass (03:03)

2. Voter Perceptions of Authoritarian Actions

• 25 Specific Trump Actions Assessed
  • Only ONE action had over 50% of all respondents label it "authoritarian":
    • Signing executive orders to investigate/persecute political enemies (03:41)
  • Several others hovered around 50%:
    • Firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for bad jobs numbers
    • Deploying National Guard to LA, Washington DC, more cities

"On these 25 actions, only one case did... over 50% say that the action... was authoritarian, and that was when it was signing executive orders to investigate or persecute political enemies."
— Sam Stein (03:41)

Generational Splits

• Older voters (those who lived through the Cold War) are more likely to see actions as authoritarian, indicating historical context matters (04:28)

Cross-Partisan Trends

• Strong Democratic opposition to authoritarian actions
• Significant, often majority, opposition among independents
• Many Republicans also oppose particular Trump actions associated with authoritarianism (04:28)

3. Opposition vs. Authoritarian Labeling

• Often, a lower percentage labeled an action "authoritarian," but a much larger percentage opposed it
  • Example:
    • Only 42% said Trump family enriching themselves (e.g., investing in crypto) was “authoritarian,” but 62% opposed it (06:07)
    • Only ~39% supported Trump expanding his golf courses; ~38% favored Saudi investment deals (06:53)

"We have these incredible gulfs in these data points and it does suggest that maybe Democrats shouldn't just be screaming 'this is an authoritarian' and should be saying 'these specific actions... are wrong and we oppose them.'"
— Sam Stein (06:53)

• Effective Messaging:
  • Democratic messaging should highlight specific, egregious actions—especially financial self-dealing and enrichment—rather than using abstract authoritarian language (06:53, 08:47)
  • Notable example: using Trump’s “ballroom” as a visual contrast to voters struggling with affordability (08:47)

4. Independent Voters: The Deciding Bloc

• Among independents, multiple Trump actions are recognized by a majority as authoritarian (09:04–09:50):
  • Ordering investigations against political enemies
  • Threatening FCC licenses for major networks
  • Firing officials for political reasons
  • Deploying the National Guard for questionable motives
  • Mass ICE raids with agents concealing identities

"When you just look at independent voters, there are real elevated concerns that what actions he's taken are, in fact, authoritarian."
— Sam Stein (09:04)

"Without a doubt, the proof is here in the pudding. Independent voters are rejecting Trump 2.0 governance... Independents are rejecting Trump. And that's something that should reassure those of us... who believe our democracy is at stake."
— Alyssa Cass (10:10)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Independents as a bulwark against authoritarianism:
  "Independent voters think Trump is acting like an autocrat, think his individual actions represent authoritarianism, and they broadly oppose it."
  — Alyssa Cass (10:10)

• Visual Contrasts in Messaging:
  "If you see the guy, you know, enriching himself with a crypto coin and then leveling the East Wing to make it into some gold ballroom... It's visual."
  — Sam Stein (08:47)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:58 – Overview of poll methodology
• 03:03 – Discussion of why focus on authoritarian vs. economic messaging
• 03:41 – Main polling result: only one Trump action labeled ‘authoritarian’ by most
• 04:28 – Generational differences in views and cross-tabs
• 06:07–06:53 – Data highlights: opposition to Trump’s financial self-dealing
• 08:47 – Strategic discussion of effective messaging (personal enrichment, visuals)
• 09:04–10:10 – Segment on independent voters’ rejection of Trump
• 10:10 – Clear conclusion: independents’ opposition is decisive and reassuring

Summary Takeaways

• The new Blueprint poll shows that a large share of Americans—and a majority of independent voters—oppose Trump actions they associate with authoritarianism and especially financial self-dealing.
• Labeling behaviors as "authoritarian" is less effective than highlighting specific, relatable misconduct, particularly for independents and cross-partisan audiences.
• The data suggest political strategists should focus on actionable, vivid stories of self-enrichment and overreach, rather than abstract warnings about authoritarianism per se, to mobilize opposition—especially among independents who are key to defeating Trump-aligned Republicans.

End of Summary.