Bulwark Takes – NEW POLL: Trump Approval COLLAPSES to 33%

Date: March 30, 2026
Host(s): JVL & Sarah Longwell
Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Episode Summary by The Bulwark Team

Overview

In this episode, JVL and Sarah Longwell break down a dramatic new polling result from UMass Amherst showing Donald Trump's job approval rating plummeting to 33%—his lowest thus far. They analyze the factors behind this collapse, discuss the implications for Trump's presidency, and examine the broader ramifications for the U.S. economy, foreign policy (especially regarding Iran), and the media landscape. The episode offers a rapid-fire, candid conversation on the political, economic, and cultural fallout from the ongoing Iran war, as well as Trump's attempts to manipulate both public opinion and the news cycle.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Shock Poll: Trump Approval Hits New Lows

(01:03 - 02:49)

• Poll Details: New UMass Amherst poll: 33% approval, 62% disapproval for Trump.
• Historical Context:
  • April 2025: 44%-51%
  • July 2025: 38%-56%
  • Now: Steep drop to 33%-62%.
• Quinnipiac also showed 38% approve, 56% disapprove.
• Sarah’s Catchphrase: “We are one point away. One point away from Bush line from what? It's coming.” (01:45 - Sarah Longwell)
• Both hosts agree this is a major negative trend for Trump, not just a blip. "One poll is one poll. These are good pollsters, though. They are tracking against themselves." (01:53 - Sarah Longwell)

2. Iran War, Foreign Policy by Tweet, and Economic Fallout

(03:12 - 06:56)

• Public Backlash
  • Only 27% net agree that attacking Iran is “putting America first.” (03:12)
  • 79% net agree attacks will increase oil prices.
  • Only 8% support sending ground troops.
• Trump’s Social Media Diplomacy:
  • Noted incredulity at Trump “conducting our foreign policy by 7am rambling bleats from our president.” (04:00 - Sarah Longwell)
• Markets Respond:
  • Dow up, as markets speculate Fed won't raise rates, but overall, Trump’s actions have been destabilizing.
  • Sarah: “In a normal world, in a world that existed 10 years ago, just what he did today alone, the way he is conducting foreign policy by tweet would be disqualified.” (04:15)
• Escalation & Off-Ramps:
  • Trump claimed a new regime in Iran and a near deal, only to threaten to “blow up all” if demands unmet — called out as "war crimes" by JVL. (05:20)
  • JVL: “The President of the United States is saying, oh and by the way, if we don't get, we want to do here, we're going to do war criming.” (05:20)

3. The Endurance—and Crumbling—of Trump’s Support

(05:52 - 08:08)

• Resilience of the Base:
  • Debate on how strongly polarization and the "outer layer" of Trump's support has lasted.
• Visible Movement:
  • JVL: “You just track from January 2025 through today and there has been absolutely observable, undeniable movement downward. …If you can't get down to 32, 30% when all of the outcomes are so terrible…” (06:56)
• Demographic Declines:
  • Women: 29% approve.
  • High school degree or less: down from 42% to 33% since July.
  • African Americans: 8% approve (single digits).

4. Economic Pain, the Iran War, and GOP Strategy

(08:08 - 14:21)

• Economic Peril:

  • Trump “underwater with white men,” usually his reliable base.
  • GOP reportedly considering healthcare cuts to pay for the Iran war ("taking the one issue that Democrats are more popular...and saying we’re going to raid that...").
  • Sarah: “This really is getting away from him. The Iran thing... he does not seem to have found an off ramp.” (08:08)

• Trump’s Likely Offramp:

  • JVL theorizes Trump will offer sanctions relief in exchange for Iran reopening trade routes—a weak exit dressed as victory: “He’s got to give Iran whatever Iran wants in order to let him get out.” (09:05)
  • Observed that Iran has been more sophisticated and disciplined in conflict.

• Real-World Consequences:

  • Voters feel no tangible benefit:
    • “Trump has not lowered any of their costs. Things are getting more expensive, gas is more expensive, products are going to be more expensive. And that... voters are going to hold Trump accountable for.” (11:26 - Sarah Longwell)

5. Short- and Long-Term Economic Threats

(12:21 - 15:29)

• Midterms:
  • “Things won’t be better before the midterms.” (12:08 - JVL)
• Risk of Recession:
  • Weak prewar economy, minimal job growth, war’s inflationary pressure, and private credit market instability referenced.
  • "Private credit markets suddenly are looking a little bit like the people who are bundling tranches of very bad subprime loans right before the Great Recession." (12:21 - JVL)
• Market Volatility:
  • AI companies holding up the market; a burst bubble could trigger a significant correction.
  • Upcoming SpaceX IPO as a stress-test for the market.
  • “There’s a lot of headwinds mounting. And he's not out yet.” (15:29 - JVL)

6. If This is Only the Beginning: The Implications of Low-30s Approval

(15:31 - 15:48)

• Polling Trendlines:
  • If this UMass poll is the start of a new trend, "we’re starting to see him in the low 30s. That starts to be a real new territory." (15:41 - Sarah Longwell)
• Consequences:
  • Potential for further decline as the costs and consequences of Trump’s policies become more widely felt.

7. Media Manipulation, Authoritarian Patterns, and “Winning”

(16:53 - 19:36)

• Media Consolidation:

  • At CPAC, FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr boasts of media shakeups: “PBS defunded, NPR defunded... Joy Reid gone from msnbc...Colbert is leaving... CBS under new ownership...soon enough CNN will have new ownership as well.” (17:00 - Brendan Carr)

• JVL’s Sarcasm:

  • “True conservatism believes that the chief executive should be involved in the HR matters of private companies. Right? ...Or is that communism?” (17:24 - JVL)

• Sarah’s Rebuke:

  • Points out Republican hypocrisy on government interference.
  • “The level of humiliation that I would feel at the idea that the FCC chair is saying, quite blatantly, these guys are doing what Trump says... The idea that Trump winning is explicitly connected to Ellison and Barry [Weiss] taking over CBS and then CNN should be shame worthy of anybody running a media company.” (18:35 - Sarah Longwell)

• JVL Puts It in Context:

  • Parallels to Hungary under Orban: leaders unpopular with the public but clinging to power via control of media and universities.
  • “Donald Trump is losing the American people, but he is consolidating the media behind his cronies and is using the power of the central government and the legal system to bend the media ecosystem to his will. …Maybe it won’t happen here.” (19:36 - JVL)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Shock Poll:

  • “Holy Megyn Kelly. Five alarm fire. Sarah, this is, I mean, I'll let you say the catchphrase.” (01:03 - JVL)
  • "We are one point away. One point away from Bush line from what? It's coming." (01:45 - Sarah Longwell)

• On Trump’s Tweets:

  • “The fact that we are conducting our foreign policy by 7am rambling bleats from our president… would be disqualified.” (04:00 - Sarah Longwell)

• On Voter Pain:

  • “Trump has not lowered any of their costs. Things are getting more expensive... That is the thing that voters are going to hold Trump accountable for.” (11:26 - Sarah Longwell)

• On Media Capture:

  • “True conservatism believes that the chief executive should be involved in the HR matters of private companies. Right? ...Or is that communism?” (17:24 - JVL)

Important Timestamps

• [01:03] Shock poll result, approval collapse overview
• [03:12] Disastrous Iran war polling data and foreign policy critique
• [05:20] Discussion of Trump’s threat (“war criming”) and tweet impact
• [06:56] The base shrinks: declining support breakdown
• [09:05] How Trump might “exit” the Iran war
• [11:26] Real economic impacts and voter anger
• [12:21] Economic instability risk, market warnings
• [15:31] Broader polling implications
• [17:00] Brendan Carr at CPAC: Media “victories”
• [19:36] JVL sums up Trump’s strategy and warning about Orban/Hungary parallel

Tone and Takeaways

• Candid, urgent, and at times darkly humorous: JVL and Sarah mix policy wonkiness with incredulous commentary and sharp sarcasm.
• Main Message: Trump’s approval crisis is real and deepening—driven by failed war efforts, economic pain, and a new authoritarian streak. Yet, dangerous countercurrents include efforts to capture and manipulate the media, reminiscent of illiberal regimes abroad.
• Warning: America is at a critical juncture, with the risks of democratic backsliding and severe economic trouble converging.

For listeners who missed the episode: This was a bracing, insightful, and often biting real-time snapshot of a presidency facing both collapse in public support and consolidation in the power structures that matter most for its survival.