New Poll: Trust In Trump's Economy Dwindles Amid Recession Fears & Tariff Chaos

Summary

Bulwark Takes: New Poll: Trust In Trump's Economy Dwindles Amid Recession Fears & Tariff Chaos

Release Date: March 12, 2025
Hosts: Andrew Egger & Sam Stein
Podcast: The Bulwark
Description: In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Andrew Egger and Sam Stein delve into the latest developments surrounding President Trump's economic policies, including escalating trade tensions with Canada, growing recession fears, and the resulting impact on public trust.

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1. Escalating Trade War with Canada

The episode kicks off with Andrew Egger and Sam Stein discussing the intensifying trade conflict between the United States and Canada. Andrew introduces the topic by highlighting the "unprecedented levels of stupidity" in the current trade war, setting the tone for a critical analysis.

Andrew Egger [00:00]:

"talk about the latest and greatest in the trade war with our good buddy Canada, which is kind of reaching, heretofore unthought of levels of stupidity, kind of across the board."

Sam Stein responds by clarifying his stance, emphasizing his empathy towards Canada despite criticizing the tariffs.

Sam Stein [00:19]:

"I do actually appreciate you and I feel bad. I was laughing at the stupidity of the tariffs, not at the economic harm that they're causing you."

2. Howard Lutnick’s Rhetorical Posturing

Andrew and Sam bring attention to a recent clip featuring Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who staunchly defends the administration's trade policies. Lutnick asserts the significance of these policies, dismissing concerns about potential economic downturns.

Howard Lutnick [01:22]:

"These policies are the most important thing America has ever had."

Sam Stein [03:17]:

"It's real world consequences stuff. Right?"

Andrew interprets Lutnick's statements as part of an ongoing inconsistent messaging strategy from the Trump administration, especially regarding recession fears.

Andrew Egger [03:17]:

"Howve Lutnick is saying, well, is it worth it? Of course it's worth it."

3. Declining Public Trust in Trump's Economic Management

The hosts discuss recent polling data indicating a significant drop in public confidence in Trump's handling of the economy. Initial optimism has waned as voters respond to mixed economic signals and policy-induced instability.

Andrew Egger [05:04]:

"In the CNN poll this morning are pretty bad when it comes to the economy."

Sam Stein [05:50]:

"It is a bait and switch."

Sam elaborates on how early positive expectations have diminished due to unmet promises and the administration's ambiguous messaging about economic challenges.

4. Economic Policies and Their Social Impact

A critical segment focuses on the broader social implications of Trump's economic policies, particularly mass deportations. The hosts examine how these policies contribute to economic uncertainty and adversely affect businesses.

Sam Stein [08:02]:

"That's just one sort of anecdote here. But if you start ramping up deportations, that too will have an economic impact."

Using PUMA’s recent layoffs as a case study, Sam illustrates the tangible effects of economic policies on the private sector.

Andrew Egger [08:14]:

"They are laying off 500 people globally."

5. Rising Nationalism in Canada and Greenland

The discussion shifts to the geopolitical repercussions of Trump's trade war, highlighting a surge in nationalism within Canada and Greenland. These nations are increasingly uniting in opposition to perceived American aggression.

Sam Stein [10:09]:

"It's like, no, I understood. I mean, I, it was disgusting and cynical, but I get like that the Mexicans, because they were brown and from, you know..."

Andrew Egger [12:25]:

"It's very depressing now to see us being like the new boogeyman that gets to be the big evil force that helps other smaller nations find their way to national fervor."

6. Internal Administration Turmoil

Andrew and Sam speculate on internal conflicts within the Trump administration, particularly targeting Howard Lutnick as a focal point for leaked internal criticisms. This disarray is portrayed as undermining the administration's cohesive economic strategy.

Sam Stein [14:22]:

"There's a Politico piece... allies are blaming him (Howard Lutnick) for the scattered economic agenda."

Andrew Egger [15:11]:

"These pieces leaking out, you know, people constantly shooting each other in the press."

7. Lack of Coherent Economic Strategy

The hosts critique the absence of a consistent economic plan, attributing the current chaos to Trump's impulsive policy decisions. They argue that this unpredictability erodes both domestic and international confidence in America's economic trajectory.

Andrew Egger [14:22]:

"The plan is for Trump to get up every day and ad lib. Right?"

Sam Stein [15:11]:

"He's struggling to message around."

8. Conclusion: Dwindling Support and Future Implications

In wrapping up, Andrew and Sam reflect on the diminishing support for Trump’s economic policies beyond his core base. They caution that continued instability and broken promises may further alienate moderate voters, jeopardizing Trump’s political standing.

Andrew Egger [15:40]:

"We can probably leave it there. What do you think? Anything else you want to get off your chest before we get off?"

Sam Stein [15:47]:

"Hopefully people are the country above us."

The episode concludes with a hopeful note for listener engagement, urging subscriptions and sharing of the podcast.

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Key Takeaways:

• Trade War with Canada: Intensifying tariffs deemed economically damaging and poorly strategized.
• Public Trust Decline: Recent polls show significant erosion of confidence in Trump's economic management.
• Economic Policies Impact: Mass deportations and erratic tariffs lead to business instability and layoffs.
• Geopolitical Backlash: Rising nationalism in Canada and Greenland as pushback against U.S. policies.
• Internal Administration Struggles: Leaks and internal conflicts signal disarray within the Trump economic team.
• Future Outlook: Continued policy chaos risks further loss of support beyond Trump's loyal base.

Notable Quotes:

• Howard Lutnick [01:22]: "These policies are the most important thing America has ever had."
• Sam Stein [05:50]: "It is a bait and switch."
• Andrew Egger [12:25]: "It's very depressing now to see us being like the new boogeyman..."
• Andrew Egger [14:22]: "The plan is for Trump to get up every day and ad lib."

This comprehensive analysis by Andrew Egger and Sam Stein provides listeners with a critical perspective on the current state of Trump's economic policies, the resulting public sentiment, and the broader implications for both domestic and international relations.

Transcript

[Andrew Egger]

Hi, welcome to the Bulwark. I'm Andrew Egger, author of our Morning Shots newsletter, joined here by the great Sam Stein to talk about the latest and greatest in the trade war with our good buddy Canada, which is kind of reaching, heretofore unthought of levels of stupidity, kind of across the board. Hey, Sam, how are you doing?

[Sam Stein]

Good. First of all, thank you for calling me. Great. That's not how you treat me on slack. So this is just for public show. And secondly, let me just take this moment because you brought it up to Canada. I do actually appreciate you and I feel bad. I was laughing at the stupidity of the tariffs, not at the economic harm that they're causing you. It's ridiculous what Trump is doing. So I just want to clarify that.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah, we have all been owning Sam a lot because Canada got pretty mad at him for one of these things.

[Sam Stein]

They're not happy with me, but I'm empathetic to them. You did nothing wrong. This is so fucked. That's just.

[Andrew Egger]

No, definitely, definitely. I think we're all kind of on the same page there. Thank you. Thank you for venturing back onto YouTube to talk more Canada. So this is. I mean, we just wanted to react a little bit to a clip from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick last night, which we will play for you now. It's really just kind of like the latest, amazing, amazing piece of rhetorical posturing from this administration about this trade war. Let's go. Will these policies be worth it if they lead to a recession, even a short term recession?

[Howard Lutnick]

These policies are the most important thing America has ever had.

[Andrew Egger]

So it is worth it.

[Howard Lutnick]

It is worth it. A. I don't think the only reason there could possibly be a recession is because of the Biden nonsense that we had to live with. These policies produce revenues.

[Andrew Egger]

So you're saying when it looks chaotic and unpredictable from the outside, that there actually is a master plan when it comes to these tariffs?

[Howard Lutnick]

It is not chaotic. And the only one who thinks it's chaotic is someone who's being silly. He said reciprocal tariffs.

[Andrew Egger]

Nobody expected him to announce 50% tariffs this morning.

[Howard Lutnick]

He needed to break some guy in Ontario who said he was gonna tax American energy 25%. The President of the United States in the White House says, oh, no, you won't, and breaks him. And you think that's chaotic?

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah. So, I mean, in order to really kind of, like, get at this, you have to see this as like the 8th act in all of this. Right. Because. Because Trump has been slapping tariffs on he's been taking them off. He's been yelling at Canada. He's been saying mean things about Canada. He weirdly said one nice thing about the premier of Ontario last night after the latest in their trade war thing here. But, but that is one of the things that's been spooky, spooking the markets. The other thing is all this recession talk that we've been having now, right. And Trump over the weekend came out and kind of put that word on everybody's lips because Maria Bartiromo asked him on Fox, like, do you think we're going to have a recession? He's like, well, I kind of hate to predict things like that. Yeah. And at that moment, like a little later on that day, Lutnick came out and he said, absolutely not. Under no circumstances are we going to have a recession. Right. But then there's more talk about this, all this talk about a potential, like, detox from the Biden economy, that we might have to go through this period of transition. And now we get this from Lutnick. So I don't know where, where are we at, Sam, in terms of how the, how the Trump administration is messaging all this?

[Sam Stein]

Well, it is, it is a bit hard to follow because both the economy is supposed to be great, but also we're going through detox and we have to endure some pain. He's making real progress on inflation. But the jobs numbers, those are Biden's fault. So it's hard. You know, they're here and there. Spitballing, it seems, is like the right word here. But this is real world consequences stuff. Right? And Lutnick is, I think, underneath Lutnick saying, well, is it worth it? Of course it's worth it. And Trump saying, well, is a recession possible? Sure, it's possible. It's an admission that things aren't working the way they want them to work. Because in no circumstances whatsoever would a president or his top economic policy person say, yeah, this is not great, but we have to just endure it. That's just not how this traditionally works. And I think it's just worth underscoring that so much of this is just Trump's own making. I mean, so much of it, sure. Like, there are trend lines that were happening prior to him. And yes, bird flu, for instance, is impacting the price of eggs. But when you launch senseless trade wars over things that are largely concocted, I'm not going to say fentanyl is not an issue, but the flow of fentanyl from Canada into the United States is relatively small. And when you are just sort of putting tariffs on and off at a whim, and basically they can get lifted because, you know, the president of Mexico calls you and, you know, happens to call you at the right moment and say the right things, then this is just, you know, improvisational stuff. And that is creating the chaos and the uncertainty that is causing the economic problems that we're experiencing. And look, we can get this into this in a little bit, but the people aren't, aren't falling for it. Like, the numbers for Trump in the CNN poll this morning are pretty bad when it comes to the economy.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, and that's been a trend we've seen in a couple of these polls just in the last few days. Voters started off giving Trump quite a significant honeymoon on a lot of this economic stuff. And he started off in the black as far as how people trusted him to handle the economy in particular. It was kind of his strongest issue in a lot of ways. Right. I mean, inflation was the thing that ended up basically handing him the election clip to Joe Biden's presidency made him unpopular in a way that he never really recovered from. And voters kind of had this expectation, all right, here comes Trump to, to set these things right. You know, I mean, kind of, we thought that was kind of, kind of insane from go. But, I mean, we should not lose sight of the fact that voters started out with quite high expectations here and are already kind of.

[Sam Stein]

Well, the reason they started out with high expectations is because he said, In 24 hours, you know, things are going to be great and, you know, prices are going to be coming down, energy is going to become abundant, the, you know, war in Ukraine is going to be over. You know, you're not going to believe how quick I can get this stuff fixed. And now he's saying, well, there might be a recession and you're going to have to, you know, eat it for a little bit. And, you know, Elon Musk is saying, yeah, we're going to have some pain and all these cuts that we're making are necessary. It's like maybe if that, of course, if he had promised that in the election, he wouldn't have been elected. So it is a bait and switch. I mean, it is. And I think the irony is that, like, he got really decent, good numbers on the economy in his first term. But then you look at this stuff in the CNN poll, it's 56% of the public disapproving of his handling of the economy, 44% approving and the thing is, though, you said, like, he had a fairly decent starting point on the stuff that he's fumbled away, but he hasn't fumbled it away entirely. Right. Like, there was another Wall Street Journal piece this morning where they interviewed Trump supporters whose 401ks have taken a hit because the stock market dive. And they were like, well, it's not great, and it's going to affect my retirement, and I'm going to have to reassess how I do things and how long I work. But I appreciate him and the tough choice he's making. So he still does have that grace period going at some point. If this continues, though, that grace period ends and then those numbers get even worse.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah, yeah. And obviously, you have to kind of distinguish, too, between kind of the core of Trump's support there, who, at least as far as everything we've seen in the past decade, are kind of like ride or die with him. Right. But that's not the median voter at all. Right. And he's already hemorrhaging some support from a number of constituencies that he needed to win the last election. And, I mean, it's not like we're at the bottom of the things that could go wrong with the economy right now. This is all trade war stuff right now. We have not even put it well.

[Sam Stein]

It's not all trade war stuff.

[Andrew Egger]

Well, I'm sorry. Yeah, the Doge stuff matters a lot, too. But the other big kind of economic disruption that people have not really yet begun to price in is another one that Trump has promised to work very hard on, which is the mass deportations of illegal immigrants here in America. Right.

[Sam Stein]

So, so that was. Yeah, and that was in the. Our morning shots this morning, which is. I mean, that. So the morning shots and this morning was that Puma, the shoe wear menswear company. Is it menswear? It's not just menswear.

[Andrew Egger]

Athletic wear, athletics. They sell women's shoes. Women.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. I should know this stuff. I'm sorry, I'm not a big Puma guy. More Nike guy. But whatever. We got internal docket, we got internal documents. They're, they're, they're having some problems because of the business climate, predominantly uncertainty in North. North America and, and China. But their document also contained this little tidbit where they said there is a, quote, Hispanic hibernation. And by that they mean, basically, Hispanic immigrants are afraid to leave their homes, and they're not going out and buying stuff, and they're not supplementing it yet with online purchases maybe for related fears. But that has caused PUMA to downgrade its expectations and they're now laying off 500 people globally. I mean, so, I mean, that's just one sort of anecdote here. But if you start ramping up deportations, that too will have an economic impact. And look, maybe what the JD Vances of the world say, well, that, you know, creates economic opportunity, right? Like you can then hire American born workers who are sitting on the sidelines. But I think what this PUMA thing points to is the fact is, like, no, the deportations coupled with the economic uncertainty has made it less lucrative for us to hire and we're actually going to retrench.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, all this stuff is kind of, in one sense, it's all of a piece, right? I mean, like, so much of the Trump agenda is about striking fear into the hearts of, you know, the people that annoy us. Right? Whether that is immigrants or whether it is Canadians or, or, you know, you name it, liberals, whatever.

[Sam Stein]

I'm not annoyed by Canadians. I just want to be clear again. I just want to be extremely clear.

[Andrew Egger]

This is the Trump promise, okay?

[Sam Stein]

I just, I just, I need to be clear.

[Andrew Egger]

You're really gun shy about these. You Canadians. You have no idea how successfully you, you, you kind of bullied Sam about.

[Sam Stein]

It's not bullied. They, they. I was always on their side. I was misunderstood. I feel bad and I just want to make sure about that. I'm not even being prestigious now. I do.

[Andrew Egger]

No, I'm not. And I'm not trying to make light of it. My point though is just, is just like Trump is telling his base, we're going to strike fear in the hearts of all of these and that's what you want, but at the same time.

[Sam Stein]

It'S like so funny. It's like, who the hell are Canadians? Like the real villain in the MAGA storyline here. It's like, no, I understood. I mean, I, it was disgusting and cynical, but I get like that the Mexicans, because they were brown and from, you know, and they were invading the border on the south and they were bringing all this fentanyl and you know, I'm again not saying I agree with this at all, but like, that's a more traditional boogeyman for maga. The Canadians. It's like, who the fuck are we supposed to be scared of? Canadians? Like, this is ridiculous. But he's gone to town.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah, Yeah. I mean, and my main point here is just like the more fear you're pumping out there into the world, obviously the more Economic uncertainty. That introduces kind of across the board.

[Sam Stein]

I will know. It's kind of interesting. The other implication of this is that, and, and we wrote about this. But the, the nationalism that Canadians now have is unbelievable. And I mean, they're just united in their anger towards Trump. And it's not just Canadians. I want to pull up the clip here, but we, you know, the other country, one of the other countries that Trump's been targeting senselessly is Greenland. And they had an election last night. I want to find, I want to make sure I find this right. They elected, I know nothing about Greenland's politics, so just be clear. But they elected a party unexpectedly that had never had gotten that much power before. It's a center right pro business party that has never held power, but they ran on a strong opposition to American takeover of the self governing territory. This is according to the Wall Street Journal. It got first place in the ballot box last night. So yet another case in which Trump is targeting a country and the response from the country is fuck you. You know, we're going to actually, you know, do it ourselves. And we've seen this with liberals in Canada suddenly having life in their own politics because they represent the main opposition to Trump.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah, it's so crazy. I mean, I remember a couple of years ago when, when Russia first invaded Ukraine and there was that, that big kind of like news cycle all about how like Ukraine had never really had like that deep of a single national identity. It's relatively new government, relatively new modern state, post Soviet, and that it was the boogeyman of this like evil external threat in Vladimir Putin's Russia that had like kind of crystallized them now into a new nationalism that was kind of united around opposition to that. And that was kind of like a cool thing at that time. And it's very depressing now to see us being like the new, the United States of America being the new boogeyman that gets to be the big evil force that helps other smaller nations find their way to national fervor. Let me go back, I know we're jumping all over the place here. Let me go back real quick to one other thing from the Lutnick clip that we started this all off with, if you recall, just the notion that he says these policies are the most important thing America has ever had. It's worth it. Even if we have to go through a recession, it's worth it to follow this plan because we're gonna trust the plan. All you guys gotta do is sit back and wait. We're gonna make it happen. I mean, this is the most amazing thing to say on the heels of a week of trade war news where it is so clear, like, the idea that there is a plan has been falsified over and over again. The plan is for Trump to get up every day and ad lib. Right? I mean, the plan is for him to, is for him to, like, put tariffs on and take them off at his own whim and that. And that just because he is, like, kind of this, this amazing force for deal making, it's going to shake out somehow in America's favor eventually. But, but despite that, like, he has also already proven time and again that, that he's not pricing in things like market uncertainty. He doesn't, he doesn't, like, particularly care that he is, like, rattling, you know, shaking, shaking the stock market around like a dog while he jumps back and forth like, why are we supposed to.

[Sam Stein]

I suppose. But he, he, he, you know, he's the one who's sort of trying to do the traditional thing. We'll never have a recession. I mean, like, yes, he eventually did say, we will need some pain, but, like, he's out there trying and do, like, the normal stuff, which is, don't entertain the idea that everything could go bad. And Trump is being like, well, it might go bad. And Elon's like, yeah, we're gonna have to endure some pain. And now lightning's getting on their page. I will note there was a Politico piece last night that allies, of course, Anonymous, are blaming him for the scattered economic agenda that Donald Trump is struggling to message around. Which to me, this piece just reads like they're, you know, they know they have a problem. They're throwing someone under the bus, and it's Howard who's gonna take the brunt of it.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah, yeah. As the kind of stuff you saw all the time in the first Trump term. These pieces leaking out, you know, people constantly shooting each other in the press. You did not get very much of it during his campaign, which was interesting. I think the morale was higher. They were running a tighter ship. Susie Wiles was cracking the whip over there. And I do think, you know, as they continue to run aground on stuff like this, it does seem like the floodgates might start to open a little bit more in terms of that internal stuff at the White House. All right, we can probably, we can probably leave it there. What do you think? Anything else you want to get off your chest before we get off?

[Sam Stein]

No, man, I'm happy. I'm happy with how this went. And hopefully people are happy too. Hopefully people are the country above us.

[Andrew Egger]

Hopefully you're all insanely happy with how this went. Hopefully you're so happy you will push the buttons you'll like, you'll subscribe, you'll do all the things. You'll tell your friends, you'll tell your neighbors, you'll tell your family. Thanks for watching. We'll see you again soon.

[Sam Stein]

Later.