Bulwark Takes: Analyzing Trump’s Approval Decline Amid Tariff Announcements

Episode: NEW POLLS: Tariffs Tanked Trump’s Approval
Release Date: April 10, 2025
Hosts: JVL and Sam Stein

1. Introduction

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, hosts JVL and Sam Stein delve into the latest polling data indicating a significant decline in former President Donald Trump’s approval ratings. The discussion centers around the impact of recently announced tariffs, economic perceptions, and shifting voter demographics.

2. Decline in Trump’s Approval Ratings

The episode opens with alarming statistics highlighting the sharp decline in Trump’s approval:

• JVL states, “Trump's net approval down 7.3 points in a week following the announcement of the tariffs. His approval has a new low. 44.9% disapproval is a new high.” [00:31]

• Sam Stein concurs, noting, “Not good, is it? You want line go up, not line go down, right?” [00:51]

These figures underscore a troubling trend for Trump, with Morning Consult reporting his approval at 46%, marking the lowest point of his second term.

3. Economic Impact and Market Reactions

The hosts explore the broader economic implications of the tariffs and market responses:

• JVL highlights the media's focus on economic news, “Voters, 31% more likely to hear negative economic news than positive of economic news. The worst gap since May of 2023.” [03:08]

• Sam Stein discusses the bond markets, suggesting that the perceived chaos stemming from tariffs affects voter sentiment: “These numbers are about what I would expect... the anticipation of the tariffs and the sense that things were chaotic and out of control.” [01:54]

The conversation touches on Nate Silver’s analysis, where JVL mentions, “Nate thinks that Trump's bottom has not yet been explored because he has not been President during a time of economic disruption that didn't have an exogenous cause.” [01:16], indicating that the full impact on Trump’s approval might still unfold.

4. Shifts in Voter Demographics

A significant portion of the discussion centers on changing voter behaviors, particularly among Republicans and youth:

• Sam Stein observes, “This suggests to me this is like the siren for Trump that your own people are now willing to concede that things aren't necessarily going in the right direction economically.” [04:23]

• The decline in support among young voters is starkly noted by JVL, who states, “Before this, Trump was plus 5 favorability net with young voters... now they're at minus 29.” [05:17]

This dramatic shift indicates a loss of enthusiasm among younger demographics, which has traditionally been less predictable and more volatile.

5. Comparison Between Republican and Democratic Responses

The hosts engage in a philosophical debate about party loyalty and criticism:

• JVL questions, “Why is it that Republicans... are never disappointed and are willing to say anything, and Democrats are like the opposite?” [14:43]

• Sam Stein responds by analyzing internal dynamics within the Democratic Party, suggesting that, unlike Republicans, Democrats are more prone to internal criticism and demands for ideological purity: “The real divide in Democratic Party is over people who believe that incremental progress is important and people who are Puritans and who will never accept incremental progress.” [15:29]

This comparison sheds light on the differing mechanisms of party cohesion and dissent between the two major political parties.

6. Implications for Trump’s Political Future

The discussion moves toward the potential trajectory of Trump’s approval ratings and political viability:

• JVL asks, “So, real talk, how low do you think his approval could go?” [11:17]

• Sam Stein speculates that Trump’s approval could drop into the low 30s, referencing historical precedents: “I would imagine that we were talking low 30s at that juncture... that's lowest of low.” [12:35]

The hosts consider scenarios where economic downturns could either further erode Trump’s support or potentially rally his base if conditions worsen significantly.

7. Concluding Insights

In their final analysis, JVL and Sam Stein reflect on the broader implications of the current political climate:

• Sam Stein remarks on the surfacing of predicted chaos and corruption: “What's happened now is everything that we predicted in terms of the chaos and the uncertainty and honestly, the corruption is coming up to the surface, and people are like, oh, yeah, this is not great.” [13:07]

• JVL emphasizes the challenges Trump faces in rectifying economic perceptions: “The problem that Trump has right now is that he's broken the world financial system and he can't put it back together.” [10:01]

These insights suggest that Trump’s current challenges are deeply rooted in both economic factors and shifting voter expectations.

8. Final Thoughts

The episode concludes with the hosts acknowledging the complexity of the political landscape, emphasizing that Trump’s declining approval is influenced by multiple intertwined factors, including economic policies, market reactions, and evolving voter demographics. The conversation underscores the precarious position Trump finds himself in, navigating through economic uncertainties and a changing political environment.

Notable Quotes:

• JVL [00:31]: “Trump's net approval down 7.3 points in a week following the announcement of the tariffs. His approval has a new low. 44.9% disapproval is a new high.”

• Sam Stein [04:23]: “This suggests... your own people are now willing to concede that things aren't necessarily going in the right direction economically.”

• JVL [05:17]: “Before this, Trump was plus 5 favorability net with young voters... now they're at minus 29.”

• Sam Stein [15:29]: “The real divide in Democratic Party is over people who believe that incremental progress is important and people who are Puritans and who will never accept incremental progress.”

• JVL [10:01]: “The problem that Trump has right now is that he's broken the world financial system and he can't put it back together.”

This comprehensive analysis by Bulwark Takes provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the current state of Trump’s approval ratings, the economic factors at play, and the broader implications for the Republican Party and upcoming elections.