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Transcript30 lines
- [00:01]
A
Reggie, I just sold my car online. Let's go, Grandpa. Wait, you did? Yep, on Carvana.
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B
Just put in the license plate, answered
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A
a few questions, got an offer in minutes. Easier than setting up that new digital picture frame. You don't say. Yeah, they're even picking it up tomorrow. Talk about fast. Wow. Way to go. So, about that picture frame. Ah, forget about it. Until Carvana makes one, I'm not interested. Car selling made easy on Carvana.
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B
Pickup fees may apply.
- [00:30]
A
Hey, everybody. Tim Miller from the Bulwark here with publisher Sarah Longwell. We have a whole slate of polling coming in already on Iran. And Sarah, I think I saw a caveat this. I've been hesitant to just be overreactive to polling and stuff in this times, in part because, you know, Trump has over performed his polling a lot at times and you know, this stuff's all moving and you know, it's happened very fast. But I think we see enough of a direction here that we can, we can talk pretty intelligently about how the public is reacting to this. So I just want to pop in with a couple things right off, then we'll get your top line thoughts. Prior to the strikes, the times that asked people if they were interested in the US initiating an attack on Iran, only 21% had said yes. Now here we are post strike and CNN poll. We'll just go over that one first. It's most recent, we had 41% of adults saying that they approve. So Trump picked up about 20% of his cultists, 59% disapprove. The independents number I think is the most telling. 32 approved, 68 disapprove. Among independents. We have a couple other polls to get to. But what are your top line takeaways?
- [01:43]
B
Top line takeaways are that those numbers map pretty closely Trump's approval rating. And so, you know, with Trump is going to wage a war entirely by himself, then one of the things you're going to see reflected in the numbers is basically do people trust Donald Trump? And so when you've got about 60% of the country that has a negative impression of the job that Donald Trump is doing. And specifically when a bunch of those people who voted for Trump because they wanted him to lower prices, basically everything he does that is not directed at lowering prices for people, that is where you're going to see people being like, I didn't want you to do that. The other thing, just observation I want to make is that part of the reason that Trump is going to see people be negative about this is because Trump has been teaching people to hag it, have a negative view on foreign interventionism. Donald Trump, J.D. vance, Tulsi Gabbard. The vast majority of MAGA influencers online, they have been out there saying now for years, but especially going into this election, that foreign adventurism is very much specifically not on the Trump agenda. And, and so there's a lot of people who voted for Trump. Not, it's not like the dominant thing, but it was part of the campaign where they're saying, look, we're, we're not going to do these stupid wars. We're not going to get involved in these places. We're America First. And America first isn't a slogan, it's a statement of prioritization. We're going to focus on our veterans here at home. We're going to focus on lowering your prices. We're going to focus on X, whatever it is. And the fact that they're not doing that, I think is going to meet with disapproval, especially from the people who were on the fence. But tip to Trump, they're kind of the last in, first out proving of Trump and they don't approve of this war.
- [03:27]
A
Yeah. And hey, look, ideally in politics, what you're trying to do, well, we're trying to do is advance your ideology and improve people's lives. But looking at, just at the, at the campaign politics side of things, what are you trying to do? You're trying to unite your side, motivate your side and divide the other side. Right. Like that's what, that's why it's called a wedge issue. You create a wedge with the other side. Going to the Washington Post poll here, which, which maps closely to the CNN poll, it has 39% overall support for the airstrikes, 52% opposed. Among Democrats, 9 support, 87 opposed. Among Republicans, 81 support, 12 opposed. Among independents, again, 28 support, 59 opposed. So independents overwhelmingly against this. And you know, to me, I don't know really that there's anything that could happen at this point that would rally Democrats to Trump's side on this. And so the risk, and I'll get into some of the details of this risk, but as you laid out, is him doing the opposite of what you're supposed to do. Wedging his own side. He's fracturing, fracturing his own side and unifying the opposition. And I think that's true, obviously Democrats, but also independents. I think sometimes that there's a mistaken view of independence. Like what they're a lot of independents are people that don't pay that close of attention and are instinctually against foreign wars, you know, and have kind of more left views and foremost or right views and other cultural issues. And so it's not surprising me that the independent number is so bad.
- [04:49]
B
Yeah, it's not surprising to me at all. I also think when you say, you know, wedge and danger, and where could the danger be? I think it's pretty clear that right now, right. People are kind of retreating into their camps on Trump. But there's. We're in this weird moment, like, these are flash poles taken within a few days of this happening. So people are just orienting themselves. And so they're, they're, they're basically reacting to their theory, the theory of us by bombing Iran. Well, so far, what have we had. We've had the, the point at which we, we clearly have didn't obliterate their nuclear program, but we bombed Iran. And it was kind of like it happened. And then everybody was able to walk away. We grabbed Maduro. It was a big news story for a little bit. And then as far as the American public is concerned, they're like, okay, no harm, no foul. Like, I haven't seen anything horrible happening. You know, the media kind of walked away from that story. And so I think the question is, is like, what will happen when more Americans die? What will happen when our embassy. It becomes clear that embassies abroad are getting bombed? What happens when Trump says four or five weeks, which, by the way, not dissimilar from the way that the Bush folks talked about Iraq in early days. Right. This is going to be a short campaign. Yeah. We might need boots on the ground. Like, it sounds strikingly similar at the moment. And I will tell you, once you start getting into something that is more intractable, then I think you really run the risk of starting to see people who are just rushing to Trump's defense right now. The rally around Trump effect. Those people can bleed out.
- [06:21]
A
Yeah. And that risk. So you mentioned Bush in the Iraq war. I'm not gonna use your term about the line that Trump might need to get to in order to really suffer political consequences, but it's an approval rating similar to what George W. Bush's approval rating was after the Iraq war. And you look at how that could, how this could lead us there. And, you know, as you mentioned, or as I mentioned, the, you know, before the war started, only 21% of Americans, like, that is his floor. Right. So depending on how things turn out, you could see, you know, things start to creep back down to this floor. Just a couple of the sub questions in these polls, I think, tease us out a little bit more in the Washington Post. Do you think the U.S. should continue military strikes against Iran or stop? Only 25% say continue. Right. So that was 40% said that they supported it. But, you know, a decent percentage of that, like, not quite half are like, okay, I supported it, but the I told is gone. Let's stop now. Right. So not like a huge well of support for the broader mission there. Similarly, if you go to that CNN poll, I thought this was interesting. This military action will make Iran either more of a threat or less of a threat to the U.S. only 28% said less of a threat. And that was 48. And in that same poll, 41% approved of it. So there's a group of people who like, approved of it, whatever, because they either approve of anything Trump does or because they're anti ayatollah, but they don't see this as a critical U.S. you know, safety issue that is being addressed. And so, you know, right there, like those two groups, the ones that approve of it but don't think this has made us safer or approve of it and want to quit. Those are mostly Republican voters. And, and Trump has a very tenuous hold on their support for this mission, at least.
- [08:08]
B
Yeah. And I, you know what it reminds me of? So first of all, I would say we could start calling it the W line and maybe that would make you happier than the Bush line. Okay, if we just started doing the W line, then we know what we're talking about.
- [08:21]
A
But I, I doing a hand signal. We could do a hand signal then
- [08:25]
B
for W. The W line.
- [08:26]
A
That wouldn't have anything, anything gross attached to it.
- [08:29]
B
You know, if I bet if I called it the penis line, you would like it.
- [08:32]
A
I would like.
- [08:33]
B
And you wouldn't get mad about it.
- [08:35]
A
Yeah, that'd be funny.
- [08:36]
C
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- [10:02]
B
The extent to which it's interesting you're talking about this floor of 20% because that I think is the like actual appetite of people who are saying, whatever the circumstances, yes, we should be bombing Iran. And that's a pretty small percentage of Americans that really want to do this. And so I think it's like, has a lot to do with. Yeah. What happens next. And what's crazy is it reminds me of tariffs actually, where Trump offered a lot of different reasons why tariffs. Like his case making was, you know, we're going to pay off the national debt, we're going to reshore manufacturing. Like, we're going to give money to everybody. It's going to boost the economy. Like. And so people who were trying to defend Trump, who reflexively defend Trump on tariffs, they didn't all have the same reason. They were all kind of had different reasons. This is like this where Trump not having a coherent case to make actually makes it harder for his supporters to reflect a case back. And so they end up with kind of a what are we doing here? Right. Like we. Why, why is this? And so like they can say, well, we, we trust Trump for right now. But once if Trump can't offer and make a serious case, if he can't make it clear to them why they should be arguing to support a bit, that's when that stuff starts to crack. Yeah, because there's not like a one argument about what we need to be doing there that's in America's interests.
- [11:34]
A
We have some data on this front and I have semantic data. I was just on with Piers Morgan. I did the Piers Morgan, you know, shit show and he booked three mag up folks, three Trump voters and they, and one of them was, you know, kind of an unapologetic whatever possible to, you know, end the Iranian regime. One of them, Jack Posobie, has been a longtime Trump supporter, was really waffling on this and hedging. And then one of them was like, America first guy, the Dave Smith that was basically like, this is crazy. It's going to ruin Trump's presidency. So, like on the other two side, the two of us that were Biden Harris voters, like, we were very much singing from the same hymn book. So that's just a little encapsulation. Here's some data from the voters that encapsulates your point about how they don't have a clear, unified message. Washington Post asks, what do you think the Trump administration's main goal is in Iran? And this is crazy. They don't. No answer gets above 14%. The top answer was show power, take control. 14%. Number two answer, unsure of goals. 13% change Iranian regime. 12% help Iranians or stabilize the region. 12% stopping nuclear program. 9. I think it's money or oil. 9% distract from Epstein. 8% protecting the U.S. 7%, by the way. So there you go. Like, only 7% of the people thought we did this because it's in our national security interests and we need to protect ourselves. And that tells you all you need to know. Nobody knows why they're doing this.
- [13:03]
B
No. And this is where, I mean, you see that the one thing that Trump and, you know, the people who love to carry his messages like Scott Jennings are putting out there is actually Iran's been waging a 47 year war against the United States and we are putting an end to it. And like, okay, like let's, we can laugh about that. That's worth laughing at. But also, if that's your case, then maybe both Trump and everyone in his cabinet shouldn't have all run saying specifically we wouldn't go to war with Iran, specifically that other presidents who gotten into things with Iran, it's just because they were dumb. Like, it was not like they were making the case at any point.
- [13:42]
A
If it's been a 47 year problem, what was different two years ago or 18 months ago? Right. It doesn't make any sense. Or the first term, why didn't you deal with this in the first term? You've been president before.
- [13:53]
B
That's right, that's right. So I, I think that part of Trump's problem is that until Trump can offer a coherent narrative, his supporters who want to just like be on his side can't offer a coherent narrative. That's one point. Then the second point, which is what I started with, which is Trump and MAGA and America first has literally been agitating against this and so they taught a lot of voters to be specifically against it. They shouldn't be surprised now that when they go and do it, a bunch of Americans are like, yeah, no, I'm not on board with this. You told me the exact opposite is how you were going to run this country.
- [14:28]
A
And look people, there's, there's cliche in political consulting. Like people don't really vote on foreign policy, right. Like most Americans don't know a lot about the various countries and the players couldn't tell you about the Shia versus the Sunni. And, and they don't vote on foreign policy. That's true. But it's just there are exceptions to it. Like and there have been exceptions and there are exceptions at the Cold war and with H.W. bush and Reagan and the Democrats really harmed themselves back then. Then H.W. son W but really cost himself in the 06 midterm, for example with what was happening in Iraq. And then you know who gained voters talking about foreign policy? Trump. Trump in 2016. I know Obama in 08. First I should have mentioned with going anti Iraq war is probably what allowed him to beat Hillary. But it be in 2016. And one of my canary in the coal mine conversations because I just, I was in a bubble when I was young and whatever and I didn't understand what's happening with Trump in 2015. I remember talking to one of my uncles who was kind of surprised me that he was for Trump very early in the primary and I was like, why? And he said the wars, the wars were stupid. Bush did the wars that were stupid. All the other guys are for the wars and I'm gonna be for Trump. And so I think that like while yeah, Trump's in a cult, you see this in the focus group. So I wanna ask you about this. Trump's in a cult and some people go along with whatever he does. This might be one area like where there's some core Trump voters who are like, no, actually like this was literally the reason why I was for Trump was I didn't want to do these stupid wars. And obviously event depending I do think it could be the one thing that really actually gets him down below that where he's been an 80, 90% support with Republicans.
- [16:10]
B
So. So there's two points on this I want to make. And you know how much if soon as I make one point, I'm going to forget my second one. But, but my first.
- [16:16]
A
Tell us what the second one is right now so we can remember to.
- [16:19]
B
Yes, the second one. See, I've Already forgotten it. Let me just do the first one first, which is accumulation. Oh, no, the second one is on the economy. Bring me back to the economy. So the first one is on accumulation, which, when you take Epstein, which Trump specifically campaigned on the idea that he's going to be a transparent president. Right. We're going to put all this stuff out there, all the people who were going out there talking about Epstein, we're going to release these files, we're going to tell everybody everything. We're going to be transparent. Part of the reason that his own voters are frustrated with him on the Epstein files is because it goes to the heart of a promise that he made them. This is similar. Right. And so once you had the Epstein files, and then when Trump made a promise, no more foreign entanglements. J.D. vance ran on this. Trump's not going to get into war, specifically on Iran. In fact, like, oh, no, we're going to be great negotiators. Again, goes to the heart of a promise he made to his people. So that's where he's in danger with his base. On the flip side, and I try to, I keep trying to hammer this home because it's really important. It doesn't matter so much whether or not people care about foreign policy. What they care about is the economy here in the United States. They care about affordability here in the United States. That's why Donald Trump was hired. And so their frustration, and this is what I hear in the focus groups all the time, their frustration with the economy means that they are not tolerant of anything that he does that doesn't directly translate into a better economy for them.
- [17:42]
A
Right.
- [17:42]
B
And so Trump, they see it as a distraction. This is why one of the things that's all over the polls, it's all over the focus groups, is Trump is not focusing on the things that I want him to be focused on. They see like him shooting Americans in the streets and the overzealous enforcement. Even if they wanted him to secure the border, the number one thing he got it elected to do was to lower prices. And so everything he does that is not that frustrates people for whom that was the central promise.
- [18:07]
A
All right, Polling numbers aren't good early, but I think the, the big story, the headline for me is like a lot of danger warning signs and some softness among supporters who really have stuck with them for 10 years now. So we'll keep monitoring that. That's Sarah Longwell. Go, go subscribe to the focus group podcast if you haven't. Me and Sarah are in Austin together also March 19th. We still got some tickets. Come join us there. TheBullork.com events subscribe to this feed Comment Tell us what we got right or wrong. We'll see you guys later.