Nobody Believed Orbán Could Lose. Then It Happened. (w/ H. David Baer)

Summary

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Bulwark Takes: "Nobody Believed Orbán Could Lose. Then It Happened."

Host: Bill Kristol
Guest: H. David Baer, Professor of Theology & Philosophy at Texas Lutheran University
Date: May 3, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Bill Kristol sits down with H. David Baer to unpack Viktor Orbán's stunning political defeat in Hungary—an outcome few predicted. Professor Baer, who spent the lead-up to the election in Hungary and has written extensively on the subject, shares first-hand insights on the rapid emergence of Peter Magyar, the new reformist leader. The conversation weaves together Hungary's moment of political transformation, implications for systemic constitutional change, and lessons relevant for democracies facing illiberal threats—specifically drawing connections to American politics.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Peter Magyar’s New Government: Fresh Faces and Systemic Reform

Timestamps: 02:55 – 06:46

• Cabinet Formation & Early Moves

  • Magyar has swiftly assembled a government of newcomers: "He's basically selecting competent people... who have training in the various portfolios... They're all new people. They're not people who have really a political track record because that was part of what Magyar was doing. He wanted a system change." (B, 02:55)
  • Intentional decentralization, in contrast to Orbán’s centralized style.
  • Diverse appointments, including three women and one blind cabinet member.
  • Notable controversy: appointing his brother-in-law as Minister of Justice, recalling American debates about nepotism (Robert Kennedy reference).

• Commitment to System Change

  • Magyar is pushing for a deep overhaul: "He's demanded... to remove all these old people [from Orban's regime]... He's called for the president to resign." (B, 04:48)
  • Efforts to enforce accountability and address corruption, including targeting those who fled or moved assets after the election.

• Potential Challenges

  • Faces difficulties in holding together a broad, ideologically diverse coalition.
  • Economic realities and the technical challenges of transformative governance.

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2. The Constitutional Dilemma: Radical Change vs. Rule of Law

Timestamps: 06:46 – 11:05

• Getting Rid of Orban-Era Officials

  • Magyar is seeking the resignation of president and other key officeholders, with threats to use parliamentary supermajority if they refuse.
    • "He... said, well, you have until May 31st and if you don't step down, we will remove you." (B, 06:46)
  • The legal roadblocks: the president can only be impeached with Constitutional Court approval—a body stacked by Orbán loyalists.

• Risks of Precedent & Democratic Legitimacy

  • Questions about whether removing so many officeholders undermines constitutional norms.
  • Historical context: previous regime changes in Hungary (e.g., 1989, Orban’s 2010 reforms) were elite-driven, lacking popular legitimacy.
    • "If you just remove everybody... you're undermining constitutionalism by trying to create a new constitution." (B, 09:00)

• Creating a "Constitutional Moment"

  • Magyar appears set on achieving buy-in for systemic change through civic engagement—an approach that could serve as a model beyond Hungary.

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3. Parallels with American Politics

Timestamps: 10:07 – 16:03

• Restoration or Renewal?

  • Kristol draws parallels to possible post-Trump scenarios in the U.S., questioning whether restoring “normalcy” is sufficient, or if moments of crisis require “constitutional moments.”
    • "It's not quite 1787... but it's not like we don't have experience with... rethinking the constitution..." (A, 14:05)

• Lessons for U.S. Institutional Reform

  • Both raise the possibility that real change might appear “radical,” but could be necessary to restore and safeguard democracy (court expansion, DOJ reformation, etc.)

• Hardball vs. Gradual Reform

  • "You gotta play hardball and the guy's gonna throw..." (B, 33:36), Baer suggests, reflecting the need for assertiveness in confronting illiberal power grabs.

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4. Magyar’s Social Movement: Grassroots, Not Elites

Timestamps: 16:22 – 22:11

• Building from the Bottom Up

  • Magyar’s campaign was driven by grassroots activism, not top-down control.
    • "He created a social movement... He travelled all around the country, created these things called the Tisa circles, like little local activist groups... much more of a really organic, grassroots, local participation in politics." (B, 16:22)
  • Contrasted with Orbán’s disciplined party apparatus and also with the U.S. Democratic Party's elite-driven structure.
  • Political lessons: Authentic engagement and distributed movements can outmaneuver entrenched powers or stale party machinery.

• Potential for Application Elsewhere

  • Kristol and Baer muse on how similar bottom-up engagement could transform U.S. politics, even if on a smaller localized scale.
    • "But you could do it in a state. No, but that's a good point..." (A, 18:40)

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5. Orbán's Quick Concession & The Nature of Hungarian Authoritarianism

Timestamps: 22:11 – 31:10

• Why Did Orbán Concede So Easily?

  • Despite autocratic tendencies, Orbán accepted defeat without resistance—unlike Trump in 2020.
    • "It was really surprising. I remember... 9:15... it came up on TV that Orban has conceded... Everybody was worried that he wouldn't do that." (B, 23:23)
  • Baer’s interpretation: Orbán recognized he was outmatched and is now plotting a comeback, rather than risk civil conflict.
    • "He wants to come back...being sober about politics, he saw he was through..." (B, 23:23)

• Contrasting with Trump’s Tactics

  • Trump’s willingness to foment unrest is seen as riskier for democracy: "In some sort of, like, bizarre way, it almost suggests that Hungary's political culture is healthier than in America..." (B, 27:29)

• How Orbanism Worked

  • Orbán’s regime suppressed opposition and opportunity for challengers without overt violence—relied instead on legal changes and state capture.
  • No Hungarian equivalent to U.S. political violence: "There was never anything in Hungary where, like, somebody came by in a car, people were nabbed off the street and thrown into cars and driven away and disappeared, and nobody was shot in the street, you know, for demonstrating." (B, 29:00)

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6. Liberal Patriotism: Reviving National Traditions for Democratic Ends

Timestamps: 34:31 – 42:29

• Magyar’s Appeal to Liberal Traditions

  • Magyar fused a patriotic message with a liberal, pro-democratic vision:
    • "He definitely appealed to liberal traditions in a classic sense, but he did it in a very patriotic way... my point is... he made people proud to be Hungarians." (B, 38:16)
  • Used references from the 1848 Hungarian Revolution, famous poems, and folk songs to connect emotionally.

• Contrast with American Liberalism

  • Many liberals, in Hungary and the U.S., are uncomfortable with patriotic rhetoric; but such language is vital to reaching voters:
    • "That's a problem for liberals... they are all embarrassed... you can't really, like, love your country... they don't know how to talk to people. People want to feel something." (B, 39:39)
  • Notion of reviving a country's best liberal values as a way to neutralize illiberal nationalism.

• Tactical Implications

  • "Trump does it in a... parody way. But that's important. I think that's something they need to learn how to do." (B, 39:39)
  • Cautions against ceding patriotism to illiberal actors, recommends reclaiming it for democratic renewal.

• Emotional Resonance of Victory

  • Baer describes the euphoria in Budapest after the election—a feeling surpassing even the 1989 fall of communism:
    • "This euphoria at the fall of Orban is... greater than 1989, I think..." (B, 34:31)
    • "It was just packed... all these drunken people are singing this Tavasi sale, this song that Magyar made that spring, the spring wind... it was great." (B, 37:04)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Rapid Cabinet Formation

  • "He's basically selecting competent people...a more decentralized kind of government...they're all new people." (B, 02:55)

• On Accountability & System Change

  • "There are some people fleeing... Magyar made a statement: this should stop and... there's going to be accountability." (B, 04:48)

• On Populist Constitutionalism

  • "He will try to... create a constitutional moment and get a lot of feed in... a new constitutional settlement that has a kind of legitimacy..." (B, 11:05)

• On the Power of Grassroots Movements

  • "He really did create a social movement...much more of a really organic, grassroots, local participation in politics." (B, 16:22)

• On Orbán’s Style vs. Trump’s

  • "Orban was much subtler than that than Trump and these guys... In America, it requires... a lot more... naked force." (B, 29:00)

• On Liberal Patriotism

  • "He made people proud to be Hungarians... he spoke to them a language of patriotism. That's why he was essential to his success." (B, 38:16–39:39)

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Lessons, Reflections, and U.S. Connections

• Magyar’s campaign shows the power of coordinated, grassroots mobilization—something the U.S. Democratic Party might learn from as it seeks to address political realignment.
• The Hungarian experience highlights the need, in moments of constitutional crisis, for both radical systemic repair and popular legitimacy—not just restoration of pre-crisis norms.
• Embracing national tradition from a liberal perspective can counter illiberal nationalism and unite citizens in favor of democracy.
• The relative ease of Orbán’s concession indicates the enduring influence of political culture—and shows the limits and risks of overt authoritarian tactics, especially for would-be imitators in the West.

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For Further Reading

• David Baer's article, "How Peter Magyar Toppled Viktor Orban's Illiberal Regime by Reviving Hungary's Liberal Traditions" (The Bulwark).

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End of summary.

Transcript

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[A]

Hi, Bill Kristol here. Welcome to Bulwark on Sunday. I'm very pleased to be joined today by David Baer, a professor of theology and philosophy at Texas Lutheran University. I think it's been there for quarter century. I think it's amazing. You're so young, but you must have begun when you were 12 years old.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[A]

You must have begun when you were 12 years old or something. And David teaches on many topics of theology and philosophy. He's written a very good book on just war theory, a topic that's kind of come back into the news recently with the Pope and the Trump administration and so forth. But for us, has written for the Bulwark, has written many times on Hungary where you've visited and lived and know the language and spent the election season there the last, you know, about a month ago. And David, you were ahead of the curve and seeing that Orban might lose and noticing how interesting alternative Magyar, Peter Magyar presented. So I thought we'd talk about the meaning of everything that happened three weeks ago. I guess it's three weeks ago today right in Hungary. And maybe begin though with an update of sort of where we are now since like most Americans, I've kind of lost track of things after those first few days of excitement and so forth. But also I just want to recommend David had an excellent article this week, I think Thursday at the Bulwark how Peter Magyar toppled Viktor Orban's illiberal regime by reviving Hungary's liberal traditions. And people should go look at that and I think we'll put it in the show notes. Anyway, David, thank you for joining me today.

[B]

Well, thanks for having me.

[A]

I know it's the end of the term and you're busy Grading papers and exams and doing all kinds of things.

[B]

I'm always happy to take a break from grading. So it's okay.

[A]

Well, yeah, that's the one thing I do not miss about being a professor, I gotta say. You know. Okay, so let's just begin. It's three weeks since the election. I'm curious what Peter Magyar has been doing. Are you surprised by what he's doing? And maybe we're. And then that's more broadly. Does anything look different to you than it did sort of the day after the election in terms of its significance and meaning of what happened or Pont's defeat?

[B]

Well, so this, so the next government, the new parliament's going to be sworn in on Saturday, so next week. Okay. So Modyard has been pretty, pretty. I think he's done a pretty good job very quickly sort of putting together his, his cabinet or his ministers. They, he's. He's basically selecting competent people or people who appear to be competent who have training in the, in the various portfolios. He's creating a, he looks like he wants a more decentralized kind of government. So Orban had a pretty centralized, you know, the ministers were all sort of under him or under office and, and so there's going to be more ministries and they're going to be populated by people who are supposed to be. Have training or qualified in the, in the portfolios. They're all new people. They're not people who have a really a political track record because that was part of what Model was doing. He, you know, he wanted a system change and so he, you know, basically these are all new people. The one. So that, that's basically there's three women, I think there's one blind person who's going to be. Has in one of the portfolios. So it's, it's a different feel. There is one kind of controversy though is that he, he has appointed his brother in law to be the minister of justice. So that's gotten a little bit of. It's a little odd or anyway it's a question, you know, I guess you can go back to Robert Kennedy or something but, but so there's this, there's been some discussion of that but other than that, I mean it looks, it's been impressive. Basically. He still hasn't really stopped. He's been going and he set up the, his government and it seems like

[A]

he campaigned as you put it, on system change. I guess that's the way you put it. And it feels like just from my very limited seeing his Couple of reports of his speeches and, and interviews that he is very much following through on system change. He's not like backing off or anything like that.

[B]

No, no, he's following. I mean he, he, yeah, he made some announcements right away. I mean, so one thing that happens happened is a number of these oligarchs, or at least according to reports are moving their money, you know, out of the country. At least the, the we know for sure. I think that the son of the what used to be the head of the central bank, you know, is now taking up residence in Dubai and so forth. So he, you know, Orban's son in law, his daughter live in America. I mean, his son in law is one of the most richest and corrupt people in Hungary. So there are some people fleeing and they're worried about the money, you know, leaving the country. So Magyar made a statement, you know, this should stop and you know, there's going to be accountability. So he has definitely focused on, I mean he wants system change. This is going to, he's demanded so the system change will require to happen sort of he wants to remove all these old people. He's called or the people that Orban put in, in the various positions. He's called for the president to resign and so forth. So, you know, I guess there's a, there's a little bit of an issue there. He's trying once all these office holders to resign, he can probably get them out because he's got a two thirds. So he's got that and then there's a lot of talk about accountability and holding people accountable.

[A]

So yeah, so a big, a big. So in that respect, those of us who thought looking very much from afar that it's a big moment and that he's, and then over the last two weeks that he seems to be wanting to follow through on it being a big moment. It does seem like that's we'll see what happens. God knows it's hard to govern and all kinds of things will all kinds of zigs and zags ahead, I'm sure. But at least at the start, he, he thinks this is a real change of course, and not, I mean, not just, I mean, I think with Biden, if to use the obvious American comparison, Biden beat Trump in 2020. TRUMP Professor Four years, Maggie's been in power 16 years, so quite different obviously. But Biden's rhetoric was, you know, basically restoring normalcy and that's what he did and tried to do. But that's not, Magyard is different. Right? I mean, this is a different.

[B]

No, no, it's, it's a definitely, it's definitely going to be a something big. And I think the real question is what will happen his big coalition, how will these ministers prove competent? Will he be able to hold together all these. I mean, you know, it's just a basically broad spectrum of political views. So I mean, there'll be a lot of challenges and then there'll be sort of, you know, challenges with the economy. But he has, he has said, repeatedly said on the election night that, you know, the President needs to resign. He listed all these other people from the Supreme Court, Constitutional Court and so forth. They need to resign. And he, they pushed back and he's, he said, well, you have till May 31st and if you don't step down, we will remove you. So I mean, right now he's focusing on the president. So the president is not. I mean, this is Orban system. The parliament with 2/3 majority can pretty much do whatever it wants. I mean, there's some control. So if the, if the parliament passes a law and the President has a, is concerned about the constitutionality of it, he can send it to the, the Constitutional Court and the Constitutional Court can kind of review it and so forth. So but if they decide to change the constitution, then, then that's basically it. So, so the, if the president who is in or modular, reforged first him as a puppet, which I think is totally accurate, he's unqualified puppet and a weak, kind of a weak, just a weak character, weak person. So he doesn't, if he doesn't resign, the parliament can impeach him. But the decision about impeachment goes to the Constitutional Court. So it's unlikely that the Constitutional Court would, you know, agree. But then he can just, he could, Magyar could just change the constitution so that he doesn't have to go to the Constitutional Court. So I think the first thing that'll be interesting to see is how, what happens with the, all of the various office holders. I think some of them will, you know, certainly go. I would be, I personally think the President will go because I just don't think he's got the stomach. This is my sizing up. I don't think he has a stomach for fighting a losing battle. But you know, the, the rhetoric is pretty tough from the, from the Orban people. And so we'll have to see that the, the other. Yeah, go ahead.

[A]

No, go ahead, go ahead.

[B]

Well, so the head of the Constitutional Court, I mean, this is, is, you know, the head of the Constitutional Court right now was the former general prosecutor for Orban. He's never been a judge. Okay. He's gotten legal training. He's never been a judge. And he's. And when he was a prosecutor, of course, he didn't prosecute anybody. So he was protecting all of Orban's people. And now he's been moved over to the head of the Constitutional Court. So that's a guy they want to get rid of. I mean, you could probably, you can challenge the whole legitimacy of him because he wasn't doing his job. But, you know, it's a little harder to take down the Constitutional Court. And there are concerns. I mean, now all the legal scholars are talking about, well, can you, you know, if you just remove everybody, I mean, you, You've kind of got a precedent where you're almost. You're acting kind of unconstitutionally or you're undermining constitutionalism by, you know, trying to create a new constitution. So there's, you know, there are some. I, I don't know what we call them, philosophical questions or legal. Philosophical questions about how to proceed in a way that will actually create a stable new system. So I think we'll have to just see what happens.

[A]

Yeah, for me, that means that I haven't really thought about it this way before. We really need to follow what Magyar does and what he succeeds in and what he doesn't succeed in, I suppose, over the next two and a half years. Because a lot of these are the challenges that we'll face if Trump were to lose, or if Trump's designee were to lose in 2028 or Trumpism were to be. Were to lose, let's just say, yeah, the challenges of how do you fix a system, how do you do systemic change in a way that restores, or maybe let's just say creates a new constitutional government and rule of law and so forth, and a functioning free government, but requires pretty dramatic changes. And you can't just, I mean, so some of it's going to require things that would have. Would look radical or look slightly, you know, I don't know, not quite to the taste of people who want it all to be done in a very moderate and temperate way. I suppose so. I suppose he has the same. He faces that dilemma as well, right?

[B]

I think so. I mean, he's got the. He can do kind of what, pretty much whatever he wants, but he. Then he would just be ruling like Orban.

[A]

Right.

[B]

So he has to try to do. I, I don't Know I, I think he's gonna. But I shouldn't make a prediction. But he just. Based on how he's acting I think he's pretty much going to go after them and, and then that will raise some questions about was this legitimate? I mean they're talking about. It is the case that in Hungary this was actually one of Warband's points that the, the, you know, Hungary I guess had two constitutions since the fall of communism and the first one was just negotiated by elites right Basically, I don't know, 1989 or. And they, they kept the, they literally kept the old constitution but they just did a bunch of amendments so that it was like a, it's the same law but the same title to the law. But it was, you know, the new constitution but it wasn't done with any. It's just done by elites over the head of the people. So there wasn't any buy in. And then, and then basically Orban did the same thing. I mean when he came in in power in 2010, he didn't tell people he was going to change the constitution. He ran on other things and then when he got in he just changed the, the constitution. And it wasn't any, you know, it wasn't any societal involvement. So I think that at least is what people are saying. I think that Madhya and of course Modular has been traveling around the country. He know he's got this sort of, it's kind of a populist. I think he would, he will try to they call it like create a constitutional moment and get a lot of feed in be you know get a lot of contributions from the, from people and a lot of buy in and then hopefully you create a, a new settlement, a new constitutional settlement that has a kind of legitimacy that the last two. What's up baby? It's Bretzky and I'm here to tell you that spinquest.com is giving out free Spins Sweeps coins. All you gotta do is purchase a ten dollar coin pack and guess what? They're gonna give you the coins from a thirty dollar coin pack that lets you play all your favorite games like Blackjack, Wanted Dead or Wild. And we're talking real cash prizes baby. Spinquest.com Spin Quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.

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[A]

I mean I'm in our internal debates in the U.S. i mean these are all wildly premature since this middle 2026, but I'm sort of on the side of. You need to think about it as a constitutional moment in 2029, if that happens, not simply as a restoration of something from before. I mean it's not quite 1787 obviously, but it's not like we don't have experience with having to end 1865, 1932 even. We have some experience with a kind of rethinking of the Constitution for the purpose though of creating, constitute recreating constitutional government. Right. I mean, I think that's very much where Magyar is interesting in the sense that. And how much can you do and where do you maybe risk crossing some lines and seeming, you know, Lincoln faced this challenge. Right. Seeming like you're almost doing something unconstitutional for the sake of saving the Constitution or. Anyway, it'll be interesting that.

[B]

I mean, I'm actually not so qualified as you guys talk about American politics. But the. I mean, I do think, I mean, I kind of agree that there are lots of problems at kind of constitutional level or fundamental level even in the United States that would, I guess ideally require, you know, constitutional amendments, which everybody, you know, is pretty hard to do. Right. So. So but you do it through and it's not impossible because we've done it, you know, and also.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, go ahead. Well, I mean, you can expand. I'm just making up, expanding the courts.

[B]

I think you can that you could that totally.

[A]

And a lot of constitutional.

[B]

Yeah, right.

[A]

And what you do is, you know, there's, I don't know of handling a Justice Department, let's just say that's by 2029. I'm making this up. It is 70%, you know, kind of Trump appointees, 90%, of course, in its top ranks, 100%. And, you know, there are legal ways to replace people, some of which are the predicate for which has been laid by Trump. Actually. The Trump administration now is also, is not exactly the, you know, it's a pretty tough path to go, you might say. It's, you know, radical reconstruction as opposed to let's, let's have everyone get along. Right. So, I mean, it just.

[B]

Right.

[A]

These are genuine dilemmas. And I don't know that there's one answer. There certainly isn't one answer for every part of. And other parts you might want to be much more gradualist about and so forth. But I, I just, I think following Mahjar, which I'm sure you will do over the next three, two and a half, three years will be very important, you know, important actually, because there will be lessons not as they were from the campaign, some of which discuss again.

[B]

Right. Getting people involved, basically. And then, yeah, he has kind of a mandate, right? In a way that he has a clear mandate. And he's. And he, I mean, because he ran on, he ran on regime change. I mean, that's what, that's what he said. It wasn't a secret. And, and he got, he really did create a social movement because he, not only because he traveled all around the country, but, you know, he created these things called the Tisa circles, which were like little local activist groups. He, they weren't really under his control. It wasn't like, I mean, Orban had done the same thing, actually. I mean, Madara had no problem copying Orban. But, you know, things that Orban did that were successful and Orban had made these. I forget what he called them, but he had his little groups too, but they were, you know, disciplined Feed us groups that were, that were, you know, there to give Orban a base. And they worked. And I think these Tisa circles that, that my yard created being the name of his party, this is party. So they call them, they call them Tisa circles. And. But they're like, everybody's just involved. I know people who are involved. And it's not a. It's much more of a really organic, grassroots, local participation in politics that doesn't represent, you know, where people are just giving their input and, and he basically created a social movement. I mean, because these, you know, when you saw these demonstrations, there is rallies or whatever, I mean, it was just, it's just unbelievable. And it's the whole country. So there's a lot of. There's a lot of Democratic participation right now. A lot of people are engaged, which is something new. And it's at a grassroots level, but it's not totally. And of course they're following him, but it's not really. I don't think it's totally under his control because it's an authentic grassroots thing. And so, you know, they. They will see how he works, that if he really gets to the point of trying to change the Constitution, which you hope I would think he will, we'll see how he gets participation, you know, popular participation. That will be very interesting. And that. That is the kind of thing that at some level, at a practical level, there's a kind of. People could copy that, right? I mean, the. The amount of work he did, engaging people, traveling around, talking to people, understanding them, you know, that's something that others. Anyone could. Could copy, basically. It takes a lot of work. But. But you could do it. Yeah.

[A]

Smaller country, obviously.

[B]

Yeah, it's a small. But you could do it in a state. I mean, you could do it in a state.

[A]

No, but that's a good point, actually. You know, and then even in the national level, I mean, it sounds, as you're talking, if you're thinking out loud, it's as if almost. Tell me if this analogy is crazy, but it's almost as if the no Kings movement produced a leader with 8 million people rallying and so forth, produced a leader sort of outside of the official Democratic Party, though friendly to it, or at least in sync with it mostly. And that no Kings organizers became kind of crucial to this whole movement. And it's sort of not simply Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer and the local Democratic senators and members of Congress and so forth. I guess it's a challenge here. You have a massive big party that has half the country, almost. I've said this formulaically, but I haven't really thought it through. I mean, that somehow the Democratic Party, capital D Democratic Party, has to also become. It has to be both a normal political party and a bigger party, you know, and a no Kings party, if you want to think of it that way. And I mean, it was sort of amazing how that happened in Hungary with Magyar coming out of nowhere and not being an elected official prior before that. I guess he was.

[B]

I guess he was. I mean, no one knew he was.

[A]

He was in the European Parliament, right? First.

[B]

Yeah, that's true. He was for a while.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[B]

But no one knew who he was.

[A]

Yeah, right. Yeah.

[B]

Well, there's a. Here, I. Here's a point.

[A]

I.

[B]

What? Yeah, I think there's some analogy there. I think that this is sort of a. I guess a global observation or something. We basically are in a. In a period, I mean, whatever, everywhere of sort of upheaval and transition. I mean, there are some historical periods or moments where things are kind of solid. Right. And there are other times when things are in upheaval and when things are solid. I think the political alignments are clear and how people are like. And then the elites, or maybe they know what the people want and people are more willing to trust the elites. Okay. If you're in a period of upheaval, the elites. We don't. I mean, like the sort of conservative, liberal. These categories don't quite. They don't quite work. I mean, everything is in flux. And so the elites are out of touch because they don't. We're in a kind of a point of realignment or reconfiguration, and they don't know what the people want and the people maybe don't quite know what they. You know, they haven't quite figured out their general orientation. So in this period of flux, it's harder for elites to. To represent the people, I think. And then the way you do that, or, and this is what I think is suggested by Mod Yard, is you have to actually, like, interact with him and you have to. You have to let something encourage things coming up from coming from the ground up. So my. I mean, again, I don't. I'm not such an expert on American policy, but I do think the Democrat was a bunch of elites, right? And they, I mean, they're all irritating, or most of them are, and, and they, you know, they're not. They don't feel like they're really, you know, they're not really listening or. I mean, and even, I mean, you know, I mean, well, just Trump talks. I mean, of course it's a demagoguery, but if you compare Trump and Biden, I mean, no one ever saw Biden, right? He was just an elite. And, and the whole Hillary Clinton, how she got selected. I mean, it's just like they've been deciding everything. And so that's probably something the Democrats need to do is. Is like, figure out what people want and. And represent and talk to people and get something flowing in from the bottom, and then it probably won't be exactly. Whatever that produces, won't be exactly like our Old, you know, Republic, you know, conservative, liberal divide. It'll be something different or at least somewhat different.

[A]

Now that's so interesting. And I think, yeah, that way that all happened in one election cycle, the change or the transformation. But it can happen over a couple of cycles, certainly. Right, right, right, right, right. You and I were texting a bit about a couple of issues that I want to, I think you have very interesting thoughts on. One is Orban's conceding so quickly and apparently easily and not, I guess, some people who, well, they destroyed some papers and they moved money out of the country and so forth. But there's no, there's not a Trump 2020 like, attempt to resist the election results. So that's sort of striking. And I guess it's related to the point you've made about the character of Orban's authoritarian, I'll just use that grab bag term regime and how it's, it's not, it's the Trump people appeal to it. So obviously there's a, as an example, as a model. So obviously there's something in common, but it's not entirely in common. And the way in which he used the law, let's talk a little bit about either one of those things. I guess they're related, the concession and the kind of using the law to establish something like an authoritarian regime that's not quite, doesn't quite fit into the models we, we know about.

[B]

So I think it's true that, I mean, everyone noticed Ormond conceded right away. It was really surprising. I mean, and I remember there, it was like 9:15 and it came up on the TV that Orban is conceited and, and what, what is going on? That was really striking because everybody was worried that he wouldn't do that. And I mean, there were, there was plenty of evidence of this sort of, there was, there was a false flag operation. There was some hokey like threat on the, one of the pipelines coming from, you know, from Serbia that supposedly on Easter and he's, or, you know, so that was a totally fake thing. And a bunch of reporters went down there and said, well, did you see any, did you see any, you know, police or anything? You see these helicopters? There was some guy who's been interviewed and the guy said, yeah, I did see a helicopter on tv. So I mean, there was nothing, it was, it was a. So anyway, this is, that's a tangent, but the, I mean, Orban was, was not following democratic procedures. He was not exhibiting respect for democratic norms or, or the democratic process. At all running up, running into the election. And it's a total mistake to think that this is just a, it was just a democratic system. It would be, it would be. And it's easy to demonstrate that if you just look at the details. But, but, so why did Orban, why did Orban resign so quickly? I mean, there are people speculate it, and my speculation is that basically kind of Orban had a better sense of reality than most people in this party. He saw that it was, he was through because it was a landslide. There was no way, given that situation, for him to, to fight it. He, There would have been, it would have been a civil war. The people, this whole country would have been full of people. And so he said, well, he sized up the situation and he said, okay, this is my interpretation, obviously. He said, well, I want to come back. He sort of, he's thinking about how to make a comeback, and if he, if he protested and fought it, he would be damaging himself. It was much better to just give up because it was a losing battle and plan his comeback. That's, that's what I think he's doing. In fact, I was, when I was there in Hungary for the election, I went to this Orban rally, like two days before the election in which is a city. I mean, there wasn't a lot of people there. And Orban, I mean, it was just such a joke of a rally for this guy. I mean, anyway, it's like there was a bunch of old people and they were like waving the flags and it was Harley, could, Harley, Philip, the, all of his whatever. So. But his speech, Orban's speech. Speech. He kept talking about, he could relate to the crowd. They were old. It was a lot of nostalgia. But he kept talking about 2002. That was when he lost and before. And he kept, he talks, he mentioned it several times. And what did he learn from 2002? And, you know, you have to hold together. You stick together. You come, come back. And I said, this guy, this guy knows he's going to lose. He's thinking about, he's thinking about what's going to happen. He's, he's making the comparison to 2002. And I thought at that point that he might. The conclusion I drew, of course, his intuitive thing was that he's not going to resist this. He's, I mean, I thought that from that rally, from his speech. So he made, he made a quick judgment and he decided he could come back, which is quite different from Trump. Okay. Because if you Trump, you know, apparently, you can totally deny an election result. You can in, you know, you know, start a little revolt or instigated insurrection, and it doesn't destroy you politically. I mean, Orban knew that if he tried to do that, he. He has no hope. I mean, he doesn't really have hope of coming back anyway, I don't think. But he knew he would have no hope. So in some sort of, like, bizarre way, it almost suggests that Hungary's political culture is healthier than in America. Or. I mean, maybe that's. Yeah, I mean, I might say that. Of course, it was a blowout. So, I mean, it was impossible to. To dispute it. Right. If it had been close. If it had been close, then he. I think he would have disputed it, but it was clear. And he. He is trying to come back and all of his little. His little propaganda outlets, which will probably be shut down pretty soon because they're all funded illegally by the Hungarian government, but they're still there on Twitter and this and that, and they're.

[A]

They're.

[B]

He's totally trying to make a comeback. It'll be kind of interesting to see what happens. I don't think he can do it, but you never know. So.

[A]

No, you're right. I mean, it's a very interesting point about the political culture, ironically, of Hungary, as opposed to us, that we. We've tolerated and ended up rewarding, or at least not punishing. January 6, 2021, kind of amazingly. But there's also the difference, though, going forward, obviously, Trump's 80 years old and 60, or something like that.

[B]

63.

[A]

63, yeah. And Orban. So he thinks he can either make a comeback or people close to him can, or whatever. He has maybe a future, at least in the country, with Trump, both because he's 80, and also just because of his character, I would say, which has gotten more that way over the last couple of years, it seems. You know, the narcissism and the megalomania and so forth. Orban sort of is a very sober, kind of reasonably sober, kind of authoritarian. I mean, he knows what he's doing.

[B]

Yeah, I think so.

[A]

He wants to become super rich and make all of his friends rich and control the state levels of state power. He doesn't seem to have gone to his head exactly in the way Trump's.

[B]

Well, he's not a nutcase. He's not.

[A]

No. He's not building art or he's not building ballrooms, particularly.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Stealing a lot of money. He's stealing money, but he doesn't need the Public narcissistic. Quite. Thing. Anyway, all of that makes Trump in some ways, yeah, I think much more of a risk in terms of really trying to use forces against the public and against preventing a fair election or not recognizing election results, probably compared to Orban. It's an irony, right, that Hungary is the place that had Orban for 16 years, but Trump, after two terms of four years each. Interrupted. Might be more of a threat to our democracy, actually.

[B]

Well, and there was never the kind of. Orban didn't engage in the kind of political violence that, I mean, he was trying to consolidate an authoritarian regime, but he was trying to do it by basically eliminating the opportunities or possibilities for opposition to emerge. Right. So he got surprised by. I mean, everybody was surprised. So they were behind the game because within a couple months, Magyar was a major force. But Orban's strategy was not to, like, openly throw people out of windows. It wasn't this. He was trying to just sort of reduce the possibilities and space for any kind of possibility for any sort of opposition to emerge. Okay. And there was never anything in Hungary where, like, somebody came by in a car, people were nabbed off the street and thrown into cars and driven away and disappeared, and nobody was shot in the street, you know, for demonstrating. I mean, it was nothing like that in Hungary. It would have been very shocking, I think. And we have that in America, because here, I mean, let's just be frank. I get. We're probably more tolerant. We're more tolerant of violence, obviously, in America than probably in Europe and Hungary. So he put up with that. But there's. Trump is more willing to use sort of what I would call transparently naked force to try to give his hold on power, get his hold on power than Orban. Orban was much subtler than that than. Than Trump and these guys. I think they do. I think there are definitely people in Trump's circle who, you know, they admire Orban, they want to repeat this organization thing, I think. I think that there's. Orban is kind of a model, and Orban had the same. Well, you. You've only got to win one election, but you got to win it big, and then you can do whatever you want. That was. And you just act quickly, and so you just win and you act quickly. To me, a little bit, it seems like that was kind of a philosophy that the Trump people were trying to do where they didn't really win so big, but you can. They thought they did, and you just got to act really quick, but to do it quickly. In America, it requires a lot more force, naked force. And yeah, so it's forget everything you had planned for this weekend because you are sitting on your couch and winning

[A]

from the comfort of your own home.

[B]

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[C]

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[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And federalism. And it's a much bigger country and the Democratic Party wasn't blown out. I mean what everyone thinks of the Democratic leaders, right. They did have 47 senators and 212 House members and governors and so forth. And what everyone thinks of the behavior of a lot of the private sector being capitulating to Trump's threats or promises or bribes or whatever. There still is much more robust independent Trump wasn't able to close things down the way Orban was trying to use state power to do so. That's an interesting. Makes one think though going forward how important it is to keep those leverage to minimize his ability to use those levers of state power to shut things down. Right. I think liberals are very big on. My liberal friends are very big on persuasion, you know, and which is good and important. But they, I think sometimes they need to be a little more focused on power, you know, very important to deny and want to be authoritarian as many levers of power or as powerful levers of power as possible. And there are a lot of them in America, and some of them he doesn't control. And he's trying to, incidentally, with the prosecution's intimidation, intimidating people. But anyway, I feel like the power.

[B]

You gotta play hardball. That's what they gotta. Yeah, you gotta play hardball and the guy's gonna throw. You know, like in baseball, if you. If you. If they. If they hit your batter, you're gonna hit their batter. So, I mean, whatever. So you just kind of like your daddy.

[A]

Executive branch is a big advantage. I mean, it'll control.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[A]

I worked in the government. I mean, controlling that is. Gives him a lopsided edge. But not. Not everything. I think you stressed in your pieces Magyar's message of liberal patriotism to the liberal sides of Hungarian history. 1848, say a little bit about that and about what the sort of analogy would be here, because Magyard wanted more conventional, liberal, pro democratic types who are, incidentally, people someone like me probably would have admired and who were fighting the good fight against Orban. But after they lost in 2018 and 2022. Right.

[B]

So.

[A]

So.

[B]

So this. This last thing I wrote for the Bulwark, I didn't realize I was so emotionally invested in it. I don't know. I mean, I write a lot of stuff and I. But this one, I was really. I didn't realize it maybe because it was. It's been such a big event for us too, here. I mean, I have a lot of connections with Hungary, and I mean, this euphoria at the fall of Orban is. Is. Is just. It's even. It's greater than 1989 for. I think, because. Well, for whatever. So just say a word about.

[A]

Why is it greater than in 89?

[B]

Because in 89, it just happened. I mean, I. I wasn't actually.

[A]

And it had been happening gradually. Right. I mean, it was a more liberal communist regime than most.

[B]

No, no, no, no. Right. And so. I mean, I wasn't there in 1989. So my connection to Hungry Gorilla goes. Begins in 1992. But. But. But there was a. It was. Well, Hungarians were very proud of themselves at the time. They were more advanced than the rest of the countries and they were more liberal. They had this guy, you know, Joseph Antal was the prime minister who was like, kind of a. Seemed like a statesman. He died because he had got cancer.

[A]

Died.

[B]

So they were very proud of themselves. But it was a very elite thing

[A]

and they played an important role. If I'm not mistaken. I mean, just in the actual practical sequence of events that collapsed the Warsaw.

[B]

Yeah, they opened. They opened.

[A]

They did open the border. Right. That was so important.

[B]

Yeah, the East Germans. Well, there's a kind of interesting thing there. The East Germans were coming through Hungary and they couldn't get into Austria. And then the Hungarian said, okay, we're going to open the. Open the border. And it's. With the guy, there's this. I don't know what he was.

[A]

It.

[B]

Someone wasn't maybe the prime minister, but his name is Jula Horn and he's cutting the fence with. I don't know who else is there. And the Hungarians go, of course that. This is just. Okay. This is just kind of the interesting things about Hungary. So this guy, Jula Horn, later became prime minister. He was a reformed communist and he played an important role in bringing down communism actually in Hungary. But he had. In 1956, he had been. What is the term? He'd been kind of. He'd been fighting. He. Well, not just a guy, but he had had kind of a position where he was basically fighting to put down the 1956 revolution. He was like a traitor. And so there's this. And he was such a controversial figure. And I don't know how you judge a person who. When 56 is a trader and 89 is a hero. And this is the. You know, how do you. How do you sort through that? So this was a problem. Okay, we're off. I don't remember what the original question. We've gone off on a tangent, but the.

[A]

This was. You're saying this is a bigger moment in some ways.

[B]

Oh, it's a bigger moment. Yeah. So these.

[A]

Yeah, so let's talk about the moment.

[B]

So it just sort of happened. People were there. This.

[A]

There's.

[B]

I mean, I was there. It was just. Everybody feels this euphoria. The Budapest was insane after the. The whole. I. I was in the press area and I. But then Internet didn't work, so I had. I had written my piece and I sent it off. I couldn't send it because I couldn't get on the Internet and say, oh, crap. I wanted to go out and celebrate, but I got to get back to home so I can see. Well, I couldn't get through the city. I mean, you couldn't walk the. It was just packed at least, you know. And you're getting on the. You know, people, of course, everyone's honking. You're on the metro subways, you bundle in. Like all these drunken people are Singing this Tavasi sale with this song that that Maryam made that spring, the spring wind. And I mean, anyway, it was great, but I was just, like, stressed out. How am I going to get home? So I can, I can send out the email. You know, it took me an hour and a half to get home. So there was a lot of euphoria, and people just feel it. They. They feel it. Of course, maybe not the people who voted for mom, but it's a different kind of experience. I think that's what people say. I wasn't there in 89 then. It's really very euphoric. Yeah. So I don't know.

[A]

So the liberal patriotisms. Close. Close with a couple of minutes. Yeah. Yeah.

[B]

Okay. So that the,

[A]

as you said, how emotionally invested you were in the piece you just wrote.

[B]

Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. I was emotionally invested.

[A]

Well, it's.

[B]

I got a lot of feedback. I've heard from a lot of Hungarians. They really like it. At least the ones who sent Talk to me, they thought, there's something there. I mean, to me it seems kind of obvious, but no one had said it. And, and there's something there. So he, he don't know what my point is right now. He, he, he. He definitely appealed to liberal traditions in a classic sense, but he did it in a very patriotic way. One person wrote me a letter. You know, his kids who were, like, embarrassed by the Hungarian national anthem or children were now, like, you know, out there proud to be Hungarian. So he changed the way Hungary. He made people proud to be Hungarians. That's not in competition with being a European. He's, you know, member of the European Union. But he was willing to make people proud or he spoke to them a language of patriotism. That's a problem for. And that's why he was essential to his success. That is a problem for liberals in this, you know, the normal sense. They, they are all embarrassed. You're embarrassed. You know, you can't really, like, love your country or you can't. You, you know, they are. We're really. We have all these horrible things in our past and so forth, and so we shouldn't be now. They don't know how to talk to people. People want to feel something. And of course, there's a lot, There's a lot in the Hungarian tradition that made it possible for them to say, we reject Orbanism. And there's lots of things in America's heritage.

[A]

True.

[B]

Right. It's a liberal country, a liberal democratic country. So, yeah, I think learning how to how to, you know, make people speak to people in a way that connects to their, you know, whatever patriotism is, be a very good thing for, for let people in the left to learn how to do. I mean, and Trump does it in a, in a kind of a, in a parody way. But I mean, that's important. I think that's something they need to learn how to do. Yeah.

[A]

Trump appeals to the illiberal aspects, you might say, of the American tradition, which are real, obviously.

[B]

Yeah, that's right.

[A]

And then to sort of. But there is a liberal tradition. Yeah. And I think you make that point that Orban, there were, God knows, illiberal aspects of the Hungarian tradition, Right?

[B]

Absolutely.

[A]

Oh, yeah, but there were liberal ones which were maybe a little covered over in the. Orban. I mean, he pretty self consciously. Let's close with this. But he pretty self consciously brought them back, right? Did 1848.

[B]

Yeah, well, I mean, he, yeah, he, he, look, they said, I, the, the March 15th holiday, which is the one that celebrates 1848, is always the one I like best because I'm an American. Okay. But it's the most American. Like, but it's always sort of like it didn't make any sense. I mean, I, this is my feeling that they did. Hungarians didn't quite know what to do with it, at least, because it, you know, it's a democratic, liberal, democratic revolution. And.

[A]

Which failed. Which, which failed, basically. Or at least failed.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

So it's like celebrating something that didn't. Yeah, that didn't. Yeah, that's old. That's true.

[B]

But all the greatest Hungarians are from. From that period. These, one after the other. And so he came out from the very beginning. He had the, you know, the top. He had this poem and from Peter or Shandor Petruvi that everybody knows. And he's always. Everyone can recite this. My family, everyone can recite this poem. And the. He appealed to that. He appealed in countless ways that you just, I mean, he. These Hungarian folk songs that go from 1848, the whole idea of freedom, you know, he just deliberately appealed to it, and he was able to use it to explain the choice between what Orban was offering and what he offered. So it wasn't just he said system change, but he explained system change. He talked about corruption, all that stuff is true. But he explained the system change using language, symbols and traditions that Hungarians understood because they came from Hungarian history, because everybody learns about it when they're in school. I mean, everybody knows who these poet, who Petuvi is, and everybody knows who these figures are and, and everyone sings, can sing these songs that, that he was singing that, you know, commemorate the 1848. So he, it wasn't just that he explained to them in a rational way, oh, you know, this corrupt system is, you know, it's all connected to, you know, all this corruption and all your misery is related to this, you know, mafia state, which he did use that term. He explained it using language and symbols that totally appealed to the emotions of people, which were true.

[A]

Yeah, that's really interesting and important. I'll let you go, but you've got to go create exams and stuff.

[B]

Well, I think I'll give myself a break if I was.

[A]

Give yourself a break after this. This is really interesting and really helpful and let's. You'll keep a close eye on it and continue to write for us on this and other topics and we'll have another conversation as, as things develop. But this is really helpful both for understanding what's happened over there and its significance. But also I think some lessons not directly applicable in some cases, but certainly could inform us over here. So David, thanks for taking the time, thanks for having me and thanks to all of you for joining us on Bulwark on Sunday.

[B]

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[C]

Hi, I'm Jake Grez, also known as Nurse Jake. As a travel nurse, I've worked in all kinds of places, different settings, cities and climates. Every assignment brings on a new challenge, which is why I always bring my figs. These scrubs are built for whatever the job throws at you. They're breathable, flexible and comfortable in any environment. No matter where I land, I know they're going to keep me looking and feeling my best. And don't sleep on the details. The pockets, the features, the finishing touches, everything has a purpose and it makes a real difference when you're moving non stop. The fit is clean, tailored and super polished and they come in a huge range of colors. In other words, they feel great throughout a 12 hour shift and they always look good. See every healthcare professional on Instagram. If you work in healthcare or know someone who does, check out figs and get 15% off your first order at wearfigs.com with code FIGSRX. That's wherefigs.com, code FIGSRX.